AUD/JPY: Turn bullish above major support

We turn bullish above major support at 86.07 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) for a bounce up to 86.94 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 8% level where we hope to see a bounce from.

Buy above 86.07. Stop loss is at 85.72. Take profit is at 86.94.

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USD/CHF: Remain bearish below strong resistance

We remain bearish looking to sell below 1.0142 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance) for a push down to 1.0071 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 95% level.

Sell below 1.0142. Stop loss is at 1.0116. Take profit is at 1.0071.

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EUR/USD look to buy on weakness

We look to buy once more at 1.0525 support (horizontal support, Fibonacci retracement) for a push up to 1.0629 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 6% level where we hope to see a bounce from.

Buy above 1.0525. Stop loss is at 1.0488. Take profit is at 1.0629.

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AUD/USD profit target reached perfectly, time to start buying

The price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target as expected. We now look to buy above 0.7517 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 0.7632 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 6.4% level where we expect a bounce up.

Buy above 0.7517. Stop loss is at 0.7447. Take profit is at 0.7632.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 9, 2017

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Wave summary:

We expected resistance at 1.5286 to cap the upside, but there was no problem to break through. It opened the way for a direct continuation higher to 1.5512 before wave [iii] is in place. That said, a break below minor support seen at 1.5223 will indicate that wave [iii] has completed and wave [iv] is unfolding towards 1.5035 before the next bullish rally higher.

R3: 1.5695

R2: 1.5512

R1: 1.5454

Pivot: 1.5340

S1: 1.5223

S2: 1.5130

S3: 1.5035

Trading recommendation:

We took profit on longs at 1.5275 for a nice profit. We will only buy on a correction towards 1.5035.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 9, 2017

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Wave summary:

A clear break above minor resistance seen at 121.19 calls for a continuation higher to 122.90 and 124.20 on the way towards the ideal wave 3 target seen at 125.53. The former resistance seen at 121.19 is now acting as support and should ideally protect the downside for a continuation higher, but only an unexpected break below support seen at 120.46 will question the immediately bullish outlook.

R3: 124.09

R2: 122.90

R1: 122.50

Pivot: 121.80

S1: 121.19

S2: 120.69

S3: 120.46

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.86 and will move our stop higher to 120.40. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 121.19 and use the same stop.

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Trading plan for 09/03/2017

Trading plan for 09/03/2017:

On Thursday 9th of March, the most important event is the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45 pm GMT. During the U.S. session, the most important event is Unemployment Claims data release at 01:30 pm GMT.

EUR/USD analysis for 09/03/2017:

This pair will be under a high influence of macroeconomic news today: ECB interest rate decision during European session and U.S. job market data during American session. The ECB is expected to leave the interest rate at the level of 0.00%, together with asset purchase target at 80bln Euro, deposit facility rate at -0.40% and marginal lending facility of 0.25%. The more significant ECB policy changes will be delayed until June, mainly due to a possible FED interest rate hike in March. Nevertheless, the forward guidance might be adjusted slightly at today's meeting as the latest ECB staff projections are likely to be more optimistic on growth with higher inflation estimates. This is why the market participants should pay special attention to any change in ECB President Mario Draghi overall tone, which currently is very dovish, despite relatively optimistic data.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at H1 time frame before the news is released. The market had bounced from 78%Fibo support at the level of 1.0525 and got back to the trading range. The recent breakout above the golden trend line might suggest, that the bull camp is getting ready to attack the next technical resistance at the level of 1.0630, but so far the price got capped around 505Fibo at the level of 1.0567. If ECB will leave the interest rates unchanged then the price should rally higher towards the level of 1.0630. If, however, the ECB will cut the interest rate, then the price might break out below the 1.0524 support and head lower towards the level of 1.0493 and below.

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Market snapshot - SP500 starts the corrective cycle

After another higher high at the level of 240.22, the SPY (SP500 ETF) has been trying to develop a corrective cycle in order to fill the last gap and test the technical support at the level of 237.29. This support has been violated and now the market is slowly moving lower toward the next technical support at the level of 235.17. If this level is violated, then the sequence of higher highs and higher lows that are typical for an uptrend will be broken. This means the market might start a more complex correction that could even extend toward the 230's level.

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Market snapshot - GOLD still in corrective downtrend

Since the failure at the 61%Fibo level at $1255, the price of the yellow metal is still trading inside of the corrective parallel channel ( dashed blue). Just before the NFP Friday data release the price had found the support at the level of $1205 in oversold market conditions. The critical level for the bulls is the technical resistance at the level of $1216 and this level might be tested if the NFP data are worse than expected. Otherwise, the correction might extend lower, toward the next technical support at the level of $1197 and below.

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Global macro overview for 09/03/2017

Global macro overview for 09/03/2017:

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories data recorded a build of 8209k barrels in the week ending March 3rd following a 1500k build the previous week. The data was a big surprise for the market participants as the number they expected was at the level of 1100k barrels, which is a slight decline. Crude inventories at 528.4 million barrels are now 7.7% higher than year-ago levels and at a fresh record high having increased for nine weeks in a row. In conclusion, despite the recent OPEC agreement to reduce the crude oil production (January 2017), the stockpiles are still getting bigger and this will be a hot topic during the next OPEC meeting on 25th May in Vienna.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The psychological support of an even number of $50 had just been violated and currently, the market is trading around the level of 49.40 at the time of writing. The market conditions look oversold and the corrective cycle is now expected to test the resistance at the level of $50. Please notice. that only a sustained violation of the level of 50.70 - 50.91 will change the current bearish bias to more bullish. Otherwise lower prices are expected after the corrective cycle is done.

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Global macro overview for 09/03/2017

Global macro overview for 09/03/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5% as expected. In the RBA official statement, we can read that: "The Australian economy is continuing its transition following the end of the mining investment boom, expanding by around 2.5% in 2016. Exports have risen strongly and non-mining business investment has risen over the past year." Moreover, the RBA expects the economy to grow around 3% annually over the next several years on steady consumption growth and expanding resource exports.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price rallied a little toward the level of 0.7633 after finding a bottom at the level of 0.7542. The trading conditions are not that much oversold as they were before the news, but still, there is a possible move higher in this market. On a higher time frame, the market is still more biased to go lower toward the level of 0.7511

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USD/JPY analysis for March 09, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. As I expected the price tested the level 114.93. According to the 30M time frame, I found that USD/JPY is overbought and that price faked breakout of yesterday's high, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntities. I also found hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. Downward targets are set at the price of 114.27 and at the price of 114.12.

Resistance levels:

R1: 114.90

R2: 115.40

R3: 116.00

Support levels:

S1: 113.70

S2: 113.00

S3: 112.50

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 9, 2017

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On December 16, the price level of 0.6960 failed to apply enough bullish pressure. Instead, bearish movement continued toward the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone (0.6860) which provided significant bullish rejection on December 23.

The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (Key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further bullish advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell-Zone) where the bearish price action should be expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 is needed to allow further bearish decline toward 0.7100 (note the previous bearish DAILY candlesticks expressed within the SELL-Zone).

As anticipated, bearish persistence below 0.7100 (Key-Level) allows further bearish movement toward 0.6960 which failed to provide enough bullish support for the pair.

That is why, further bearish fall is expected towards 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where price action should be watched for a possible BUY entry.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 9, 2017

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Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending-up within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recent established top).

During the bearish pullback the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support for the pair.

This allowed further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

This week, the current bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced further bullish advance towards 1.3440 and 1.3550.

The next bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains bullish trading above 1.3550.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is calling for a bullish market from the support levels of 1.0041 and 1.0100. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel on the 4H chart. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.0041 which coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.0041. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0041. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.0041) with the first target at the level of 1.0153. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.0153, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0233) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.0041.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 0.6982 towards 0.6889. Now, the price is set at 0.6903. On the H4 chart, the resistance of NZD/USD pair is seen at the level of 0.6982 and 0.7057. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving below the resistance level of 0.6982. Moreover, the price spot of 0.6982 - 0.7057 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6982, sell below 0.6982 with the first target at 0.6861 in order to test the monthly bottom. Besides, it should be noted that support 1 is seen at the level of 0.6861 which coincides with the double bottom. Additionally, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6861, the market will decline further to 0.6800 in order to test the daily support 2. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.7057, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 9, 2017

EUR/USD: There is a "sell" signal on the EUR/USD pair. The price moved below the resistance line at 1.0550 yesterday, going towards the support lines at 1.0500 and 1.0450. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they can have some impact on the market.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has tested the resistance level at 1.0150 and it is bound to test it once again. The blls are willing to push the price beyond that resistance level, targeting another resistance levels at 1.0200 and 1.0250. But right now, the resistance level is under siege, since the price is yet to breach it to the upside.

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GBP/USD: This pair has gone south by 130 pips this week; having gone south by 300 pips since February 27, 2017. There is a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and further southwards movement is expected. It may make the price to go towards the accumulation territories at 1.2150, 1.2100, and 1.2050.

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USD/JPY: On this pair, the price managed to break upwards yesterday, almost going above the demand level at 114.50. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. It is possible for the price to reach the supply zones at 115.00, 115.50 and 116.00. These are the targets for the week.

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EUR/JPY: On the EUR/JPY pair, things are a bit choppy, but the outlook on the market remains bullish. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 has managed to go above the level 50. Further bullish movement is possible, which may make price to reach supply zones at 121.50, 122.50, and 123.00.

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Technical analysis of USDX for March 9, 2017

The Dollar index is trying to break resistance at 102.20 once again. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as the price is above 101.90. With NFP tomorrow and the ECB today, I would be very cautious as we could see another pullback towards 101 before the resumption of the uptrend.

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Red line - resistance

Purple line - support

The Dollar index is overbought and diverging in the short term. Technical resistance is at 102.20 from the previous highs. A double top rejection could be seen at these levels today. A clear break above 102.20 will push the index towards 103.

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Red line - resistance

Black line - neckline support

Green line - long-term trend line support

On a weekly basis Gold price remains in a bullish trend and the low at 99.25 is of high importance for the longer-term trend. Weekly support is also found at 100.70. A break below that level will increase the chances of a testing the 99.25 level. On the other hand, the bulls need to hold 101 and break above 102.20 in order to move to the next degree of the uptrend. The bulls are in control. Long-term trend remains bullish.

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Technical analysis of gold for March 9, 2017

Gold price remains inside the bearish channel and in the bearish short-term trend. The deeper than expected pullback has not changed my longer-term bullish view on Gold. I continue to expect to see Gold above $1,400 over the coming months in 2017.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Purple lines - resistance lines

The short-term trend is bearish. Resistance is at $1,211 and the next is at $1,215. Bigger resistance is at $1,220 and cloud resistance at $1,240. Trend changes to bullish above $1,240. Watch closely the oscillators. A break above the purple trend line resistance will be a bullish short-term reversal sign.

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Stochastic oscillator is oversold in the Daily chart. The price is approaching daily cloud support at $1,190. Daily trend change will be confirmed only on a break above $1,236 on a daily close. This pullback in Gold is of similar importance to the pullback from $1,375 to $1,120. This pullback should produce a higher low and a new upward reversal.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 09, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias above 114.15. Although the pair retreated from 114.75 (Mar. 3 and Mar. 8 top), it is still trading above its rising 50-period moving average which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50.

To sum up, as long as 114.15 holds on the downside, look for a rebound to 114.75. A break above this level would call for a new rise to 115.00.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 114.75 and the second one at 115.00. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 113.90, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 113.00. The pivot point is at 114.15.

Resistance levels: 114.75, 115.00, and 115.35

Support levels: 113.90, 113.60, and 113.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 09, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to prevail its upside movement. The pair broke above its 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. In addition, 1.0135 is playing a key support level which should limit the downside potential.

The employment report by Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) showed that employers added 298,000 private jobs in the US in February, much higher than an addition of 187,000 jobs expected and helping to seal expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates next week.

To sum up, as long as this key level holds on the downside, expect a rebound to 1.0170 (Mar. 7 top). A break above this level would call for a new advance to 1.0190.

Resistance levels: 1.0170, 1.0190, and 1.0215

Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0105, and 1.0085

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 09, 2017

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NZD/USD is Under pressure. The technical picture of the pair is bearish as the price is capped by the negative trend line since Mar. 6. The downward momentum is further reinforced by the declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The upside potential should be limited by the key resistance at 0.6930.

Therefore, as long as this key level holds on the upside, expect a new drop to 0.6860 and even to 0.6835 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6860. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6835. The pivot point stands at 0.6930. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6950 and the second one at 0.6960.

Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.6960, and 0.7015

Support levels: 0.6860, 0.6835, and 0.6800

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 09, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias above 138.65. The pair is rebounding on its 50-period moving average, as well as the horizontal support at 138.65. The 20-period moving average still stays above the 50-period one, and the relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50 but lacks downward momentum. The intraday bias should remain positive.

As long as 138.65 is not broken down, further bounce is preferred with 139.65 and 140.00 as targets.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 139.65 and the second one at 140.00. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 138.15, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 137.00. The pivot point is at 138.65.

Resistance levels: 139.65, 140.00, and 140.80

Support levels: 138.15,137.80, and 137.00

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Mar 09, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Minimum Bid Rate and French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q. The US will release the economic data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Import Prices m/m, Unemployment Claims and Challenger Job Cuts y/y, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0588.

Strong Resistance:1.0581.

Original Resistance: 1.0571.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0561.

Target Inner Area: 1.0536.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0511.

Original Support: 1.0501.

Strong Support: 1.0491.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0484.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Mar 09, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, Average Cash Earnings y/y and M2 Money Stock y/y, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Natural Gas Storage, Import Prices m/m, Unemployment Claims and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 115.00.

Resistance. 2: 114.78.

Resistance. 1: 114.55.

Support. 1: 114.28.

Support. 2: 114.05.

Support. 3: 113.83.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for March 08, 2017

The index is trying to gather enough bullish momentum in order to break above the resistance zone of 102.39. If that happens, bulls should produce a rally to test the 103.40 level in the short-term. However, if USDX plummets at the current stage and breaks below yesterday's lows, it can reach the 100.44 level across the board.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 102.39 / 103.40

H1 chart's support levels: 101.39 / 100.44

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 102.39, take profit is at 103.40 and stop loss is at 101.35.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 09, 2017

The pair is doing a bearish consolidation below the 1.22 handle, as the support zone of 1.2123 continues to be a strong area where buyers can help to lift GBP/USD in order to resume the uptrend toward the 200 SMA at H1 chart. However, as long as the pair stays below that moving average and very close to the Bollinger band, it can target the 1.2034 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2300 / 1.2400

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2123 / 1.2034

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2123, take profit is at 1.2034 and stop loss is at 1.2216.

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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2017

EURGBP has finally broken out of the corrective structure this week with a break above the resistance 0.8640-50 area. Currently the price is residing just above the resistance and expected to retrace back toward the resistance as support. Today EUR having positive German Industrial Production report at 2.8% which previously was at 2.4% and negative French Trade Balance at -7.9B which was forecasted to be at -3.7B, EUR managed to gain strength over GBP. GBP Annual Budget was published today which did show some negative bias in the market for which GBP has been seen falling along in contrast with all pairs. It is expected that EUR is going to gain more strength in the near future against the GBP.

Now let us look at the technical view, price is residing just above the resistance of 0.8640-50 area. With a small break above the resistance it is expected to have a retest quicker and after the retest if we witness any bearish rejection with a daily close from the level we will be looking forward to buy with a target toward 0.8850.

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Daily analysis of Gold for March 08, 2017

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Overview

Gold price tests 38.2% Fibonacci correction level that formed critical support at $1,211.30 as we mentioned this morning. We depend on the stability above this level to prefer the bullish trend for today. Now we expect the metal to regain the main bullish trend. Positive targets are seen from $1,231.13. Therefore, the scenario suggested this morning will remain valid unless the price breaches $1,211.30 and holds below it. In this case, breaking this level will push the price downward to visit the next correctional level at $1,195.28. The expected trading range for today is between $1,211.30 support and $1,231.13 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 08, 2017

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Overview

Silver price reached our expected target at $17.43 and settles near it. The price on the chart is accompanied by stochastic, so silver has entered the oversold area. It supports the chance for bouncing higher to resume the main bullish trend. Now the price is waiting for testing $18.30 initially. Therefore, we expect silver to trade higher in the short term. Please note that breaching the targeted level will extend silver gains to reach $19.38, while breaking $17.43 will push the price to suffer more of the losses with a downward target at $16.56. The expected trading range for today is between $17.40 support and $17.80 resistance.

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