Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 13, 2019

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GBP/JPY did not react much to the ECB decisions to cutting the rates and launch a new bond buying program. After a minor dip to just 132.14 it continued higher to re-test the 133.40 high. We doubt very much that red wave ii completed with the 132.14 test and continues to look for a lager dip closer to at least 130.81 and likely even closer to 129.41 before the next impulsive rally is expected.

A break below minor support at 132.84 will be the first indication that red wave ii still is in motion, while a break below 132.41 will confirm this outlook. That said, we can not dismiss the possibility, that red wave ii could be complete already and red wave iii towards 135.40 already is developing.

R3: 134.68

R2: 134.00

R1: 133.55 '

Pivot: 133.18

S1: 132.84

S2: 132.40

S3: 132.00

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a 50% buying opportunity near 131.20 and 50% near 129.50.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 13, 2019

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EUR/JPY declined to a low of 117.56 (just 22 pips above our ideal target for wave ii). The rally that followed does look impulsive and calls for more upside towards at least 122.05 as wave iii should be an extension of wave ii. At 122.05 wave iii will be an 161.8% extension of wave i.

Short-term EUR/JPY is testing the resistance line of the falling channel 127.50. This resistance line is likely to cause a minor corrective dip to 118.95 and maybe even closer to 118.41 before the next and likely successful attempt to break through this resistance-line towards 122.05 and above.

R3: 120.73

R2: 120.30

R1: 119.85

Pivot: 119.50

S1: 118.95

S2: 118.68

S3: 118.41

Trading recommendation:

We missed our Ideal buy-target at 117.40, but bought the break back above 118.23 and is long EUR from 118.25 and we have placed our stop at 117.50.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 13. Return to last week's highs and the euro continued to grow

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday I paid attention to the fact that the euro's fall will be limited in the support area of 1.0925, which was the low of this month, which, in general, happened. The decision to leave the key rate unchanged forced traders to switch to lower interest rates in the US, which is expected next week, which returned demand for the euro. At the moment, the bulls need a breakdown of last week's high in the region of 1.1082, which will lead to the continuation of yesterday's bullish growth and update of new levels 1.1115 and 1.1151, where I recommend taking profit. However, today the Eurogroup meeting will take place, which may limit the upward potential. In the scenario of a downward correction of EUR/USD in the morning, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown in the region of 1.1053, or on a rebound from a low of 1.1020.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, sellers will be waiting for signals on the US economy, namely a report on retail sales, which may shed light on a possible interest rate cut in the United States next week. If it comes out good enough, it will limit the upward potential of the euro and return demand for the US dollar. The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1082 in the morning will be a signal to open short positions, however, it is best to sell the euro immediately for a rebound after updating the highs of 1.1115 and 1.1151. The main task of sellers will be to return and consolidate under the support of 1.1053, which will lead to a larger downward correction to the area of 1.1020, where I recommend taking profits.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market after yesterday's data from the ECB.

Bollinger bands

In case the euro decreases in the morning, the average boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1053 may act as support, but it is best to buy the euro for a rebound from the lower border in the region of 1.0989. The upward trend may be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.1120.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 13, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price, after breaking through the resistance line, may continue to move up with the target of 1.2385 - the upper fractal. From this level you can work down.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price will continue to move up.

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement, with the first target of 1.23818 - a support line (red bold line).

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 13/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The team behind Ethereum Classic activated a hard fork called Atlantis to improve altcoin functionality and compatibility with Ethereum.

The message was posted on Twitter by one of the ETC directors, Yaz Khoury. Khoury congratulated the project saying:

"Congratulations to @eth_classic on the successful activation of Atlantis Hardfork! It was one of the longest debates that led to consensus, along with a policy of immutability. I learned a lot about the beauty of decentralization and a dispersed community," he writes.

ETC successfully made the hard forks according to the previously estimated time - between September 12 and 13, 2019 - at block height 8,772,000.

"The community had a number of meetings to discuss the schedule, scope and commitment, and we decided the direction and time of Atlantis release," said ETC Labs in June.

This hard fork is designed to improve security while addressing community concerns. It is also considered a "rush-free update" that will ensure ETC compatibility with Ethereum, making it easier to work with fraternal Blockchains.

After the announcement of the planned fork, ETC received support from a number of industry players, including the OKEx cryptocurrency exchange. The exchanges revealed their support on September 10, also warning that they would deal with related technical issues and resume service once the ETC main network is stable.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $183.43. Recently, the price has started to move slightly down again, towards the lower range boundary located at $172.82. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $207.64

WR2 - $195.13

WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09

WS1 - $169.04

WS2 - $156.97

WS3 - $149.69

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 13/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Finnish peer-to-peer cryptographic exchange, LocalBitcoins, warns users of the alleged security threat associated with the Tor Browser anonymous browser.

Transactional compliance expert Richard Bensberg posted on Twitter a screenshot of the LocalBitcoins banner warning Tor users of the risk of losing Bitcoins.

"Warning to all Tor users: The Tor browser puts you at risk of Bitcoin theft" - we read.

LocalBitcoins then responded to Bensberg, saying that while using the Tor browser does not conflict with the terms of service, it is not recommended to use it for security reasons. LocalBitcoins did not specify why the browser makes users more vulnerable to theft.

Bensberg criticized the move, claiming that Localbitcoins "really lost the thread," placing a banner warning of a browsing tool praised for ensuring privacy and anonymity.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has completed the wave (2) at the level of $9,809 and bounced to the level of 50% of the Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,340. The momentum is increasing, so the next target is seen at the level of 61% located at $10,469. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645, but in a case of a breakout higher, the nearest target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,331 and $10,481.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,244

WR2 - $11,525

WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260

WS1 - $9,607

WS2 - $8,906

WS3 - $8,306

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 13, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, it is possible to continue the upward movement with the target of 1.1089 - pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the upward movement will continue.

The first upper target of 1.1089 is a pullback level of 50.0.% (yellow dashed line), when breaking through the next target of 1.1127 is a pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dashed line).

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 13/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has moved below the trendline, but the depth of the down move was not impressive as the price just hit the level of 1.2284 and bounced back up. If the bulls want to confirm their control over the market, they should move towards the next target which is seen at the level of 1.2430 (weekly technical resistance from January 2018). On the other hand, the next targets for bears, if they will continue the pull-back is seen at the level of 1.2224 or even at the level of 1.2175. The larget timeframe trend remains down and this move up is being considered as a corrective rally in a downtrend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2838

WR2 - 1.2600

WR1 - 1.2467

Weekly Pivot - 1.2210

WS1 - 1.2063

WS2 - 1.1816

WS3 - 1.1679

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 13/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

A significant candlestick pattern has been made at the EUR/USD pair yesterday. The huge Bullish Engulfing pattern is clearly visible at the H4 timeframe chart and it is a possible trend change pattern. In order to regain control over the price, the bulls have to break through this level and go higher towards the next target located at the level of 1.1091 and then at 1.167, but currently, the bullish momentum is decreasing as the RSI indicator moves below the level of 50 in neutral market conditions. The larger timeframe trend remains down, but the Ending Diagonal price pattern on Weekly and Daily timeframe charts is still valid.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1261

WR2 - 1.1174

WR1 - 1.1105

Weekly Pivot - 1.1012

WS1 - 1.0944

WS2 - 1.0856

WS3 - 1.0789

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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EUR/SEK approaching support, potential bounce!

EURSEK is approaching support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.

Entry: 10.61063

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 10.57485

Why it's good : horizontal overlap support, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 10.77484

Why it's good: Horizontal swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci extension, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

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USD/CAD Testing key resistance

USDCAD now testing key resistance. Pull back below now expected.

Entry: 1.32255

Why it's good : Horizontal graphical resistance and38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.31650

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal graphical supportStop Loss: 1.32370Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, Horizontal graphical resistance

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USD/JPY broke above upside confirmation, potential to rise further!

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USDJPY is approaching upside confirmation at 108.05 and could drop from here!

Entry :108.05

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance

100% Fibonacci extension

76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 109.29

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance

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Overview of GBP/USD on September 13th. The forecast on the "Regression Channels" system. Boris Johnson claims that he did

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: downward direction.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 32.8174

The latest news from the UK relates to the topic of Brexit and concerns the Yellowhammer document and the Scottish High Court ruling on the illegality of the decision of Boris Johnson and the propaganda of Parliament. The first issue has already been discussed, moreover, it was more or less clear that the "hard" Brexit will not bring the country anything good, and the document "Yellowhammer", published on the government website, at the request of parliamentarians, only proved it. At the same time, Boris Johnson's cabinet refused to publish all correspondence of politicians involved in the discussion of the "hard" Brexit cabinet. What immediately provoked a new batch of criticism from the opposition, who suspected the Prime Minister of concealing much more important information than the one that was published. The second question concerning the decision of the court of Scotland is more interesting. Since, firstly, the work of parliament can be resumed in the near future, it remains only to obtain a decision of the Supreme Court, which will consider the case on September 18. And secondly, there are growing suspicions that Boris Johnson lied to Queen Elizabeth II when he said that the suspension of parliament is only necessary to prepare a new government program. The main point of this story is that the more British citizens will be disappointed with Johnson's actions, the less chance he and his party will win the re-election to the Parliament, which the Prime Minister himself has already tried to initiate twice. And the opposition's actions are clear and understandable – to expose Boris Johnson in the most unfavorable light possible, especially since many of his actions do not even need to artificially give a "gray" color. Why, in fact, Johnson had a vacation for the deputies, obviously.

The calendar of macroeconomic events in the UK on Friday is empty. Thus, traders will have to analyze only two reports from the States, as well as all the information coming from the political sphere of the UK. The technical picture of the pair indicates the continuation of the upward trend. Yesterday, there was an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the moving average line.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2329

S2 – 1.2268

S3 – 1.2207

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2390

R2 – 1.2451

R3 – 1.2512

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair completed a round of downward correction. Thus, traders are advised to resume buying the pound with the targets of 1.2390 and 1.2451 until the next reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to return to the sales of the British currency, not before the pair fixes below the moving average line.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Overview of EUR/USD on September 13th. Forecast on the "Regression Channels" system. Mario Draghi did everything he could.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 133.4252

Well, completely crazy Thursday, with a lot of important information, publications, and speeches left behind. And the euro, paired with the US dollar, after jerking to each side by more than 100 points, returned to its original position and even added value in the past day. We already said yesterday that the main reason for the strengthening of the euro after falling by 100 points lies in the US inflation report, which was not just weak, but also very important, as it significantly increased the likelihood of a new Fed rate cut. The euro, quite unexpectedly, gets the basis for the beginning of the formation of an upward trend, since the pattern "double bottom" is visible on the chart. Of course, if tomorrow it turns out that the Fed will not reduce the rate, and the ECB will continue to act "ultra-soft", then the "double bottom" will not save the euro from new falls. However, this is still a factor in favor of the pair's growth in the coming days and weeks.

On Friday, September 13, there will be a few macroeconomic reports. We are talking about changes in retail sales in August and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. According to experts, the first indicator will grow by 0.3%, the second will increase from 89.8 to 90.9. Well, let's look at the real values of these indicators. If they are higher than forecast, then crazy Thursday may get its continuation today, as the US currency may feel the support of the foreign exchange market.

In addition to the above, we would like to draw traders' attention to possible further actions of the ECB. Mario Draghi said nothing about them at his speech yesterday. Thus, traders can only guess whether the ECB will stop at such easing or will announce the expansion of the stimulus package at the October meeting? We are inclined to believe that the volume of monthly asset repurchase at the next meeting of the ECB will not change, since the quantitative easing program itself will resume only in November 2019. Thus, the question remains only in the rates, but rather in the deposit rate. Since the reduction of the deposit rate is very hard on commercial banks, we believe that the regulator will be extremely cautious and slow in changing it, as the banking system needs to be given time to adapt to new conditions. Thus, it is most likely that the use of new tools to support the economy of the European Union will be seen by Christine Lagarde.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair rose to the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1078, but new fundamental factors are needed to continue the growth. The growth continued, which was caused again not by optimistic data from the European Union, but by weak data from the States. Both linear regression channels indicate a continuing downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.1017

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1078

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1139

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar has fixed above the moving average line, so the trend is now again upward, but only in the short term. Thus, it is recommended to consider purchases of the euro in small lots with the goals of 1.1108 and 1.1139 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 13, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Trade Balance and German WPI m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1110. Strong Resistance: 1.1104. Original Resistance: 1.1093. Inner Sell Area: 1.1082. Target Inner Area: 1.1057. Inner Buy Area: 1.1032. Original Support: 1.1021. Strong Support: 1.1010. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1004. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 13, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m and the US will publish some economic data such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 108.79. Resistance. 2: 108.58. Resistance. 1: 108.37. Support. 1: 108.09. Support. 2: 107.88. Support. 3: 107.67. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD pair on September 13, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar is growing very slowly over the most important technical resistances that have now become supports. These are the trend lines of two price channels, the MACDindicator line and the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart. Oscillator Marlin draws a horizontal line. Such a pattern may mean continued growth on the depletion of the market, that is, the price and the indicator itself will still show growth but you need to be careful about it. The immediate goal of the bulls remains at 0.6912 and overcoming the level opens the second target of 0.6962, which is the upper border of the price channel. The departure of the price under the strong support of 0.6840, which is unlikely, will launch a new stage of lowering the "Australian" to support the embedded line of the price channel at 0.6684.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is above the indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is in the declining zone, but in the current situation, this is interpreted as a discharge of the indicator before further growth. The support of the MACD line at the price of 0.6840 coincides with the linear support levels on the daily chart.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 13, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the ECB announced a significant easing of monetary policy: the base rate fell to -0.5%, the program of asset repurchase on the balance sheet of the ECB from November 1 was set at 20 billion euros per month. Economic forecasts were lowered: for GDP for the current year from 1.2% to 1.1%, for the next year from 1.4% to 1.2%, the forecast for inflation for the current year was lowered from 1.3% to 1, 2%, next year from 1.4% to 1.0%. From the moment of release until the end of Mario Draghi's press conference, the euro fell and lost 100 points, but then the inexplicable happened - the euro turned up, closing the day by 54 points. The euro's growth from low to the high of the day reached 160 points. Western media claim that the market reversal was allegedly due to a change in the tone of Draghi's speech and investors' understanding of the inadequacy of the measures taken to stop the impending crisis. But Draghi's speech, as you can easily see, only after reading it, there was no change in tone, and the measures taken were more than enough to completely forget about the euro's growth even when the Fed rate was lowered at the next meeting on September 18th. Daily trading volumes were the largest over the past five months, and we believe that there was an agreed action by the biggest players to keep the euro from falling. And it happened with the opening of the US session. This turn of events may be partly due to the fact that the base CPI in the US showed an increase from 2.2% y/y to 2.4% y/y and this could be a formal reason for lowering the rate by 0.5 points at once. That is, yesterday's trading occurred on the inside. Perhaps the Federal Reserve and major investors are just keeping a neutral attitude with Trump. Or maybe, the timing in the strategic plans of the Americans simply did not fit the euro's fall.

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The technical situation was no less complicated. In the fall, the euro reached a low on September 3, consolidation under the Fibonacci level of 138.2% did not occur, the decline to 161.8% (1.0838) was canceled. Growth stopped at 123.6%, at the resistance of the balance line of the daily scale. The Marlin Oscillator is in the growth zone. Apparently, the euro will now go to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1152, where the price channel line and the MACD line are also located.

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The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart - the price is above the indicator lines, Marlin is in the growth territory.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 13, 2019

GBP/USD

Despite yesterday's turbulent events at the ECB meeting, the pound is currently kept in the range of Monday, at the Fibonacci level of 200.0% of the daily scale and below the resistance of a low on July 17 (1.2381). the price exit above the indicated resistance opens the way for the British pound to 1.2543 - to the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. The downward movement has approximately the same range of decline to the MACD line of the daily TF at the price of 1.2180, where the line of the falling price channel is also located.

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The price is above the indicator lines of balance (red) and MACD (blue) on the four-hour chart, consolidating below the MACD line, under 1.2306, can trigger a declining scenario with the target at 1.2180. The likelihood of rising and falling is the same.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 13

Forecast for September 13:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1188, 1.1135, 1.1114, 1.1086, 1.1044, 1.1021 and 1.0987. Here, we determined the subsequent goals for the top from the local ascending structure on September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1086. In this case, the target is 1.1114. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.1114 - 1.1135. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1188. The movement to which, is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1135.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1044 - 1.1021. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0987. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1086 Take profit: 1.1114

Buy 1.1136 Take profit: 1.1186

Sell: 1.1044 Take profit: 1.1022

Sell: 1.1018 Take profit: 1.0989

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2460, 1.2408, 1.2351, 1.2300, 1.2266, 1.2218 and 1.2190. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2351. In this case, the target is 1.2408. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to expect movement to the level of 1.2460, and upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the range of 1.2408 - 1.2460. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2514. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.2300 - 1.2266. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2218. The range of 1.2218 - 1.2190 is the key support for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2351 Take profit: 1.2406

Buy: 1.2409 Take profit: 1.2460

Sell: 1.2300 Take profit: 1.2268

Sell: 1.2264 Take profit: 1.2218

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0024, 0.9991, 0.9974, 0.9947, 0.9914, 0.9894, 0.9872 and 0.9830. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 4. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9947. In this case, the target is 0.9974. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9974 - 0.9991. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0024. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 0.9914 - 0.9894. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9872. This level is a key support for the top. Its price movement should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the potential target is 0.9830.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 4, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9948 Take profit: 0.9972

Buy : 0.9991 Take profit: 1.0024

Sell: 0.9892 Take profit: 0.9872

Sell: 0.9870 Take profit: 0.9835

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.76, 108.33, 108.12, 107.70, 107.49 and 107.12. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 108.12 - 108.33. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 108.76, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 107.70 - 107.49. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.12. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local upward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.12 Take profit: 108.30

Buy : 108.35 Take profit: 108.76

Sell: 107.70 Take profit: 107.50

Sell: 107.46 Take profit: 107.12

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3297, 1.3275, 1.3230, 1.3208, 1.3165, 1.3140, 1.3094 and 1.3052. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of September 3. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top of September 10. After the price passes through the noise range 1.3208 - 1.3230, we expect the development of the ascending structure. In this case, the target is 1.3275. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3275 - 1.3297.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3163 - 1.3140. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the subsequent development of a downward trend. In this case, the first potential target is 1.3094.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 3, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3230 Take profit: 1.3275

Buy : 1.3275 Take profit: 1.3295

Sell: 1.3165 Take profit: 1.3143

Sell: 1.3138 Take profit: 1.3096

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6918, 0.6884, 0.6867, 0.6841, 0.6822 and 0.6793. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6867 - 0.6884. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.6918. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6841 - 0.6822. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6793. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6886 Take profit: 0.6918

Buy: 0.6920 Take profit: 0.6965

Sell : 0.6840 Take profit : 0.6822

Sell: 0.6820 Take profit: 0.6795

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.39, 120.36, 119.95, 119.32, 118.99, 118.50 and 117.73. Here, we determined the subsequent goals for the top from the local ascending structure on September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 119.95 - 120.36. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.95. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 119.32 - 118.99. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 118.50. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.95 Take profit: 120.34

Buy: 120.40 Take profit: 121.30

Sell: 119.32 Take profit: 119.00

Sell: 119.95 Take profit: 118.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.13, 134.74, 134.10, 131.91, 131.36, 130.57 and 129.70. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of September 3. At the moment, we expect movement to the level of 134.10. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 134.10 - 134.74. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 136.13. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 131.91 - 131.36. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 130.57. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage in price will lead to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 129.70.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.96 Take profit: 134.10

Buy: 134.10 Take profit: 134.72

Sell: 131.90 Take profit: 131.36

Sell: 131.34 Take profit: 130.58

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY vs GBP / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from September 13, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY and its cross-instruments EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY from September 13, 2019

Minuette operational scale (H4 timeframe)

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The currency of the "country of the rising sun" in the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, respectively, the further development of the USD / JPY movement from September 13, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundary levels (108.45 - 107.95 - 107.55) of this zone. Traffic markings are shown in the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the support level of 107.55 at the intersection of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale forks and ISL61.8 Minuette will determine the development of the currency of the country of the rising sun in the equilibrium zone (107.55 - 106.95 - 106.40) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the starting line SSL Minuette (106.30) and channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (106.15 - 105.70 - 105.20).

In the case that the upper boundary of ISL61.8 is broken (resistance level of 108.45) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of USD / JPY can be continued to the final line FSL (109.45) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the USD / JPY movement, depending on the breakdown direction of the above equilibrium zone, are shown in the animated chart.

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Euro vs Japanese yen

The development of the cross-instrument movement EUR / JPY from September 13, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 119.00 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 118.75 (median line of the Median Line Minuette operational scale forks).

In case of the breakdown of the Median Line Minuette midline (support level of 118.75), the development of the EUR / JPY movement can continue towards the goals - the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (118.00) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks - channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (117.75 - 117.25 - 116.75) - equilibrium zone (117.40 - 116.90 - 116.40) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, a combined breakdown of the resistance level of 119.00 on the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks and the control line UTL Minuette (119.14 - local maximum) will make the continuation of the upward movement development relevant to this cross instrument to the reaction line RL100.0 Minuette (120.30) with the possibility of reaching the final line FSL (121.80) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the movement of EUR / JPY, depending on the development of the boundaries of this range, are presented in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen

The development of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument movement from September 13, 2019 will also become determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 133.35 (local maximum);
  • support level of 132.10 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks).

The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (support level of 132.10) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuettte operational scale forks - the development of the GBP / JPY movement to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (131.45 - 130.85 - 130.15) and the equilibrium zone (130.60 - 129.75 - 128.90) of the Minuette operating scale fork with the prospect of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (128.15).

Meanwhile, updating the local maximum (resistance level of 133.35) with successive breakdown of the final Schiff Line (133.85) and the Median Line (134.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the continuation of the development of the upward movement of GBP / JPY to the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (136.25) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork with the prospect of reaching the reaction line RL161.8 Minuette (140.45).

We look at the animated chart for the GBP / JPY movement options, depending on the breakdown direction of the above range.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/GBP returns to growth, pound lacks good news

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A Scottish court ruled that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful and the uncertainty exacerbated the GBP. The EUR/GBP pair returns to the level of 0.8940 after three consecutive sessions of decline. Returning to the political situation in the UK, one should take into account the forecasts, which set out several worst-case scenarios in the event of the hard version of Brexit at the end of October. Analysts emphasize the high likelihood of riots, rising food prices and shortages of medical supplies. On the other hand, the euro also cannot find support. The German Consumer Price Growth Index is likely to fall by 0.2 percent in August compared with July and grow by 1.4 percent year on year. Additional data indicate a decrease in industrial production in the eurozone in July by 0.4 percent compared with the previous month and by two percent year on year, which is below market expectations.

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The sale of the British pound also caused a slight downward correction after recent positive results. Sterling will remain under scrutiny, as political pressure has not subsided, and the issue with Brexit has not been resolved. Now everyone is looking at the events taking place in the political arena of Great Britain during the period of "inaction" of the Parliament, which will begin its work in mid-October, it is expected that the queen will personally deliver a speech. At the same time, we remember that the Bank of England recently ruled out "negative interest rates" and expressed its opinion about the "likelihood of a recession in the country."

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro gloom: the meltdown

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The clouds, gathering over the market in anticipation of the ECB meeting, erupted in thunder in the form of a reduction in interest rates and the introduction of a new policy of quantitative easing. A similar scenario was expected, but pulled down the European currency, analysts say.

After the meeting of the European regulator, the euro plunged, and bonds rose after the announcement of a reduction in interest rates and the introduction of a new program of quantitative easing to support the weakened economy of the region. As a result, the single European currency was around a two-year low. The reason for this was the decision to reduce interest rates to -0.50% and resume the program for the purchase of bonds in the amount of €2.6 trillion in November 2019 at a rate of €20 billion per month. Another decision of the regulator was the introduction of a two-level system of negative rates.

Less than a year ago, the ECB completed a €2.6 trillion quantitative easing program. The regulator made it clear that by the end of 2019 it will raise interest rates. Since then, the ECB has changed the direction of monetary policy, as well as several other central banks. The main goal of the monetary policy of the European regulator is to maintain inflation in the eurozone slightly below 2%. The bank has not been able to achieve this goal since 2013. Inflation in the eurozone amounted to 1% in August 2019. This is the lowest value since the end of 2016, experts emphasize.

In addition, the European regulator lowered deposit rates from a record low of -0.4% to -0.5%. Experts are wary of such a decision, since a decrease in the deposit rate may lead to a short-term strengthening of the euro against the dollar to 1.11–1.12. In the future, the nearest reference point for the euro will be the mark of 1.08 to the US dollar, experts predict. This is possible after the Federal Reserve cuts rates after the meeting scheduled for September 18. After the ECB meeting, the European currency may end the week below the $1.1 mark against the greenback, according to strategists at Nordea Bank.

Since the leadership of the ECB began to signal a weakening monetary policy, the euro/dollar has fallen by 3.5%. To date, the single European currency has fallen by 0.42%. It trades between $1.0959–$1.0960. Analysts admits that the euro could further fall against the dollar.

According to experts, this month the euro reached its lowest level in the last two years. The ECB meeting confused the cards to market participants and left them in suspense regarding the further dynamics of the EUR/USD pair. Uncertainty remains in the market, since it is not known what the new easing of the monetary policy of the regulator will bring for the euro.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com