USD/NOK right below key resistance

USDNOK right below key resistance. Pullback expected

Entry: 9.111

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high, 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement

Take Profit : 9.01

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% retracement and Horizontal graphical overlapStop Loss: 9.1645Why it's good: Previous swing high.

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USD/JPY approaching 1st resistance, potential to drop!

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USDJPY is approaching 1st resistance at 107.92 and could drop from there

Entry :61.8% Fibonacci extension

100% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 106.95

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal swing low support

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USD/JPY exchange rate - attention to stock markets

Stock markets and stock index futures are one of the most liquid instruments that play one of the key roles in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Despite the fact that in Europe and in other countries they do not have the functions that are inherent in the United States, their impact on the global financial system is difficult to overestimate. Traders often underestimate the factor of stock markets or evaluate incorrectly. Therefore, today, we will try to understand how the stock markets influence the quotes and other assets, and also try to apply the direction of the movement of stock indices in the analysis of the situation on the foreign exchange market, especially since there are CFD contracts for these instruments in the terminals.

First of all, it should be noted that there are no simple correlations between the stock market and the Forex market, or at least I could not find them, although I searched quite carefully. From my point of view, the US dollar, euro and British pound exchange rates do not depend on the direction of movement of stock indices. The only currency that is influenced by the dynamics of the funds is the Japanese yen, and very often the yen acts as a leading indicator for stock indices, and vice versa.

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This is due to the fact that for more than twenty years, the Japanese yen has the status of a funding currency, i.e. currency in which banks receive financing at minimum rates and in large volumes. Following that, the funds received in yen are sent to currency arbitrage operations, also known as carry trade.

According to the principles of arbitration operations, a low-yield currency is exchanged for a high-yield currency, after which it is invested in instruments denominated in a higher-yield currency. For example, in the USD/JPY pair, the dollar has a yield of 2%, and the yen has 0%, which allows you to borrow in yen and invest in dollars. At the same time, by making such an operation, investors acquire an undesirable short position in the yen and expose themselves to the risk of losses from a sharp difference in exchange rates.

As stock markets grow, investors do not have problems refinancing arbitrage operations. However, with a decrease in stock indices, traders are forced to buy the yen and return the financing received in it, which causes an increase in the Japanese currency and a decrease in the quotes of the USD/JPY pair.

If we consider the situation in a broader aspect, then with a decrease in the American stock market, the yen and the American dollar will increase in price. However, the dollar is not so simple as it was recently. The fact is that the European Central Bank has been issuing the euro at an almost zero rate since 2015, and this blurs out the current picture due to the influx of European currency into the American market, in which institutional investors are funded. Therefore, the US dollar will definitely grow to say that with a decrease in the stock market, as it could be done some time ago, is now impossible, but with respect to the yen - it is possible.

So what about the yen? Let's look at what happens to the Japanese currency for a period of up to one month, using the four-hour time period (Fig.one).

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Fig.1: USDJPY pair decline options

Since May 2019, the USD/JPY rate has been in a declining trend, which is only a couple of times interrupted by consolidations and corrections. The downward trend of USD/JPY tells us that investors do not really believe in the growth of the stock market. The last corrective recovery from 104.50 to 108.50 (hereinafter I round off the values) arose at the end of August and lasted four weeks. After which, having formed a "wedge" pattern on the correctional top at the end of last and the beginning of the current week, the USD/JPY pair declined to the level of 107, however, failed to pass it and returned to the value of 107.90 again. At the same time, a decrease in USD/JPY violated the key minimum of 107.50, which serves as a formal sign of the end of the correction and the beginning of a reversal in the direction of the medium-term trend aimed at lowering.

I draw the attention of traders to the fact that the USD/JPY rate in its current direction almost completely copies the movement of the S & P500 index for four hours, as you can see for yourself by looking at the terminal trading instrument SPX500. Moreover, the SPX H4 also formally shows signs of a trend reversal, due to the breaking of the key low at 2980. Thus, through the analysis of the yen and S&P, we came to the postulate of the Dow theory: "Indexes must confirm each other." In our case, this postulate will sound like this: "The movement of US stock indexes and the USDJPY pair should go in the same direction."

In conclusion, I would like to dwell on the fundamental situation prevailing in the USA related to the Fed decision at a key rate. The main problem that the American economy is now facing is the lack of capital investments, which, in turn, is caused by a decline in international business activity. At the same time, within the Committee on Open Markets, according to the data published by the Fed, there is no understanding of the need for another rate reduction, and it is assumed that the key rate should remain at current values (Fig.2). Moreover, members of the Committee suggest that the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 1.75-2.00 until the end of next year.

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Fig.2: Fed forecast on the economic situation. September 2019

Moreover, according to the CME exchange, 53% of traders now believe that the rate will be lowered again in October, and 73% consider it possible to lower the rate at the December meeting. The Fed once yielded to the desire of the markets and lowered the rate in July, although it had no formal reason to do so. Thus, whether the Committee will go about markets again remains a big question. The pressure exerted on the Fed in June-July was unprecedented, but now, there is no such pressure.

Against the background of the continuation of trade negotiations between the US and China, we can expect continued gradual, creeping growth in stock markets. The volatility of which decreased markedly in September. However, the future is in a thick fog of uncertainty, and in this regard, monitoring related assets, such as the yen and stock indexes, is becoming more relevant than ever.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 27, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price will move up with the first target 1.2344 - a pullback level of 14.6% (red dashed line). The price, in case of breaking through, can continue to move up with the target of 1.2370 - a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price will continue to move up.

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement, with the first target at 1.2271 - a pullback level of 50% (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 27, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the beginning of a pullback upward movement with the target of 1.0984 - a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line) is possible. Intermediate points where pullbacks are also possible, means additional entry points upward 1.0936 - which is a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dashed line), while 1.0955 is a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, an upward movement is possible.

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement with the target of 1.0837 - historical support level.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 27/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Telegram global messaging application has announced a coding competition for the construction of smart contracts for the Blockchain Telegram Open Network (TON).

The competition consists of three parts with a prize pool for all tasks in the range from $ 200,000 to $ 400,000, as announced on Telegram Contests. The competition will end on October 15.

The basic part of the competition is to build one or more smart contracts using the tools provided in the distribution of the TON Blockchain network, as described in the attached TON Contest document. Two other optional tasks include suggestions for improvements to the TON Virtual Machine and FunC and TON Blockchain in the error prize competition, the company said.

According to the details of the competition, Telegram expects the creators of smart contracts to implement at least one of five smart contracts, including a portfolio with multiple signatures, two types of simple TON DNS Resolver smart contracts, a synchronous two-party payment channel and an asynchronous two-party payment channel.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has hit the low located at the level of $151.85 again, so the market might be forming a Double Bottom price pattern. Nevertheless, the current Elliott wave scenario is still bearish because the wave (C) of the wave Z of the higher degree has not been completed yet. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $162.78 and the key technical support is seen at the level of $151.85. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $174.90.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $261.09

WR2 - $242.26

WR1 - $225.12

Weekly Pivot - $205.85

WS1 - $188.31

WS2 - $169.05

WS3 - $152.55

Trading recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 27/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

British police are auctioning confiscated Bitcoins worth half a million pounds sterling ($ 621.400), according to financial media.

The funds were confiscated from criminals who offered their hacking services in exchange for Bitcoins - they illegally stole and sold personal data.

This is the first time confiscated cryptocurrency funds are being sold on behalf of the UK authorities, according to the publication. In addition to Bitcoins, the police also sell assets belonging to the criminal, including cars, diamond jewelry, and a luxury Rolex watch. The auction will be conducted by the Wilsons Auctions Irish auction house.

Wilsons Auctions sold over $ 400,000 captured Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies in March on behalf of the Belgian Government. The United States was the first country to start organizing auctions for the sale of illegally acquired cryptocurrencies confiscated by the authorities in 2014, selling Bitcoins captured from the infamous Silk Road online market.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made another lower low on its way down, this time at the level of $7,676. This low might be the bottom for the wave (C) of the wave (A) of a higher degree, but there are no trend reversal patterns on the chart yet. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $8,102, so after the consolidation period, the price might bounce towards this level. The good news for the bulls is growing positive divergence between the price and the momentum that supports the short-term bullish outlook possibility.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,109

WR2 - $10,706

WR1 - $10,333

Weekly Pivot - $9,939

WS1 - $9,560

WS2 - $9,159

WS3 - $8,757

Trading recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBPUSD for 27/09/2019

The GBP/USD pair has hit the technical support located at the level of 1.2308, which is close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up located on 1.2268. The short-term outlook is still positive for bulls as this move down still looks corrective and there are no signs of any trend reversal yet. The larger timeframe trend remains down as well, so if the level of 1.2195 (61% Fibonacci retracement) is violated significantly, then the larger timeframe trend might resume sooner than expected.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2753

WR2 - 1.2662

WR1 - 1.2561

Weekly Pivot - 1.2479

WS1 - 1.2378

WS2 - 1.2291

WS3 - 1.2188

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 27/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the key technical support located at the level of 1.0926 and the impulsive bullish scenario has been invalidated. The new low was made at the level of 1.0905 as the downtrend continues. Please notice, the market conditions are now close to become oversold, but the RSI is weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish scenario. The larger timeframe chart is still bearish and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0817.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1151

WR2 - 1.1121

WR1 - 1.1056

Weekly Pivot - 1.1026

WS1 - 1.0965

WS2 - 1.0930

WS3 - 1.0867

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 27. The pound will remain under pressure as long as confrontation within

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, in the afternoon, the bulls made an unsuccessful attempt to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.2531, after which the trade again moved to this level. Therefore, nothing has changed from a technical point of view. The bulls' return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2351 remains the same task, since only after this we can count on a larger upward correction to the area of a high of 1.2400, where I recommend taking profit. In case the pound declines in the morning further along the trend, it is best to consider new long positions for a rebound from major support in the region of 1.2284, or after updating the low of 1.2238.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The task is still the same for sellers of the pound. The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2351 will lead to the formation of additional pressure on the pair and to a repeated wave of decline in the area of the low of 1.2284, where I recommend taking profit. If the pressure on the pound is larger, after a speech by representatives of the Bank of England, you can count on the renewal of 1.2238 area. If the pressure on the pair weakens in the first half of the day, and the bulls manage to regain the resistance of 1.2351, it is best to count on short positions on a false breakdown from a high of 1.2400, or sell GBP/USD for a rebound from the level of 1.2440.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bear market in the short term.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2310 will lead to increased pressure on the pair, while growth will be limited by the upper level in the region of 1.2351.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
  • Translation
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 27. The euro updated annual lows and aims to support the breakdown of

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Demand for the US dollar remains quite high. Yesterday's data on the growth of the US economy and Fed representatives' statements only put pressure on the EUR/USD pair, which updated annual lows in the region of 1.0900. Currently, an important task for buyers is to keep the euro above the level of 1.0905, and only the formation of a false breakdown there will be the first signal to open long positions in the expectation of a return to resistance at 1.0938, above which a larger upward correction can be expected. The key target of the bulls will be a high of 1.0967, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of a further decline in EUR/USD in the morning on a trend below the level of 1.0905, it is best to open long positions by a rebound from a low of 1.0873.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

A report on inflation in Italy and data on the indicator of consumer confidence in the eurozone are expected in the morning. Weak statistics will lead to the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0938, which will be the first signal to open new short positions in order to break through and consolidate below the level of 1.0905, which will provide an influx of new euro sellers. The main task of the bears will be a test of lows in the areas of 1.0873 and 1.0840, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of buyers returning to the market and rising above resistance at 1.0938 in the morning, it is best to return to short positions by a rebound from the high of 1.0967, however even this will not lead to a break in the current downward trend.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the event of EUR/USD decline in the morning, a break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.0905 will increase pressure on the euro. Growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.0960.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 27 - 2019

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GBP/JPY continues to move lower as expected. Key-support at 132.10 has almost been tested and we are likely to see a second test soon. We do expect the this key-support will reject the second test too for a correction into the 133.28 - 133.51 area before a successful test through key support at 132.10 should be expected for a dip to 130.78.

Only a direct break above 134.61 will confirm that red wave ii is complete and red wave iii higher towards 139.20 is developing.

R3: 133.68

R2: 133.51

R1: 133.28

Pivot: 132.92

S1: 132.56

S2: 132.10

S3: 131.96

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP near 131.25 or upon a break above 134.61

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 27 - 2019

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With the break below key-support at 117.54 is clear that a more complex wave ii correction has been unfolding. The second corrective wave is currently unfolding. It should make a dip into the 117.15 - 117.28 area before completing and setting the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave iii towards at least 121.98 and likely even higher.

For now, we will look for a final dip into the 117.15 - 117.28 area as long as minor resistance at 117.91 is able to cap the upside. A break above this resistance, will be the first indication that wave ii has completed and wave iii is developing.

R3: 118.51

R2: 118.23

R1: 118.07

Pivot: 117.91

S1: 117.52

R2: 117.28

R3: 117.15

Trading recommendation: Our stop at 117.50 was hit for a small loss. We will buy EUR again at 117.35 or upon a break above 117.91

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, September 27,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, French Prelim CPI m/m, and French Consumer Spending m/m will be released. The US will publish such economic data as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Personal Income m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.0976. Strong Resistance:1.0970. Original Resistance: 1.0959. Inner Sell Area: 1.0948. Target Inner Area: 1.0923. Inner Buy Area: 1.0898. Original Support: 1.0887. Strong Support: 1.0876. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0870. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, September 27,2019

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Japan will release the Tokyo Core CPI y/y while the US will publish such economic data as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Personal Income m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Resistance.3:108.34. Resistance. 2:108.13. Resistance. 1:107.92. Support. 1:107.65. Support. 2:107.44. Support. 3:107.23. (Disclaimer)

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Trading plan for EURUSD for September 27, 2019

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Technical outlook:

Yesterdays' drop to 1.0909 levels in EURUSD had eliminated bullish pressure but downside remains limited as proposed ending diagonal structure is near to completion. A Fibonacci 0.618 target has been met at 1.0914 levels which could be the termination of wave c, within the a-b-c of wave v. The support trend line connecting waves i and iii of the diagonal is passing through 1.0880 levels. Hence, even in case of a test, it would be limited from where prices are trading at present (1.0924). Immediate price resistance is seen at 1.0967 levels and a break above that followed by 1.1024/25 would confirm a meaningful bottom in place. Furthermore, indicators (not shown here) are producing a bullish divergence on major timeframes, indicating a potential change in trend.

Trading plan:

Remain long with a stop at 1.0830, the target is open.

Good luck!

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Control zones AUDUSD 09/27/19

The pair is testing the weekly CZ 0.6761-0.6748 on the second day. Consolidation below this zone does not occur, therefore, it becomes possible to search for favorable prices for selling. WCZ 1/4 0.6777-0.6773 was tested yesterday, which made it possible to open a short position. The medium-term goal of the current week is the middle course zone with a lower boundary at the level of 0.6695.

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Absorption of the upward movement of early September becomes a matter of time. The probability of falling to the low of the month is above 70%. This makes it possible to keep part of the sales opened earlier.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair can gain a foothold above the WCZ 1/4. This will open the way for the formation of a medium-term zone of accumulation, which will be a correction to the last weakening of the Australian dollar. The WCZ 1/2 0.6814-0.6807 will be the determining resistance.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 27, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar made short-term growth of a little more than 30 points but it returned to the balance line under the general pressure of the market on the daily chart, thereby keeping the downward trend. The Marlin Oscillator is holding the descending zone below the zero line. The target of 0.6668 is maintained.

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On the four-hour chart, yesterday's growth was stopped by the balance line, that is, despite short-term price spikes, the situation remains completely under the control of the sellers. The . Marlin oscillator on the downside. Overcoming the price of the resistance of the MACD line at 0.6800 may be a sign of the uncontrollable desire of the players to test once again the resistance of the top trending lines in the area of 0.6822 (daily). In spite of that, the persistence of desire does not mean its successful realization.

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Control zones USDJPY 03/27/19

Yesterday's test WCZ 1/2 108.06-107.96 made it possible to enter a short position. The purpose of the downward model is the weekly control zone 106.50-106.31. Work in the downward direction will continue to be a priority as long as the pair is trading below the level of 108.06. The potential profit is 120 points, so finding an entry point with a stop less than 40pp will make it possible to obtain a favorable risk/reward ratio.

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Work in the downward direction is the main one, however, the closure of today's trading above the WCZ 1/2 will completely change the balance. The beginning of next week will be the time to find favorable prices for purchasing the instrument. The monthly control zone in September will cease to be a strong resistance, which will make it possible for the pair to grow further towards summer extremes. The probability of the formation of this model is 30%, which makes it an auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 27, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, amid a calm political background, the euro pushed through the signal support of 1.0926 and is now ready to work out the target range of 1.0805/45. The final estimate of US GDP for the 2nd quarter remained unchanged at 2.0%, which supported moderate optimism in the market. Today, orders for durable goods for August are expected to decrease by -1.1%, but personal income is projected to grow by 0.4%, as well as expenditures by 0.3%. Taking into account yesterday's data on incomplete sales in the secondary market at 1.6% against the forecast of 1.0%, as well as rising indicators for real estate prices and growth in consumer confidence released this week, data on expenses and income may even exceed expectations. which can become the main news of the day.

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Technically, on the daily chart, the situation is completely falling - chart indicators and the oscillator in a downward position.

On the four-hour chart, there is also a downward trend; price below the lines of balance and MACD, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator forms a kind of triangle, which may be a sign of a continuation of the downward trend.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 27, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound slightly fell yesterday, gaining a foothold at the Fibonacci level of 200.0% on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is introducing itself into the zone of negative numbers - into the decreasing trend zone. The 1.2230 target, defined by the Fibonacci level of 223.6%, has become relevant. Below it is the second target at 1.2150 - the level of 238.2%. The MACD line gravitates towards it.

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On a four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator shows a small and weak, but double convergence. This can be realized in price consolidation in the gray box marked on the chart. Upon completion of the consolidation (or without it), we are waiting for the price at target levels.

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#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from September 27, 2019 APLs

Let me bring to your attention, in an integrated form, the development options for the movement of currency instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY from September 27, 2019.

Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame)

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US dollar index

Starting from September 27, 2019, the development of the #USDX dollar index movement will continue to be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (99.05 - 98.90 - 98.75) of the Minuette operational scale fork. We look at the animated chart for working out the levels above.

A combined breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 channel Median Line Minuette (resistance level of 99.05) and the initial SSL line (99.13) of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it relevant to continue the development of the upward movement of the dollar index to targets - local maximum 99.37 - final Schiff Line Minuette (99.50) - control line UTL Minuette (99.60) - equilibrium zone (99.70 - 99.95 - 100.25) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 98.75) of the Minuette operational scale forks, it will be possible to develop a downward movement of #USDX to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (98.55 - 98.20 - 97.85) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

From September 27, 2019, the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will continue to depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (1.0990 - 1.0965 - 1.0940) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The movement markings inside the mentioned channel are shown in the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 1.0940) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the outgoing movement of the single European currency may continue to target - local minimum 1.0922 - warning line LWL61.8 Minuette (1.0885) - control line LTL Minuette (1.0845)

Meanwhile, the breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 1.0990) of the Minuette operational scale fork will confirm that further development of the EUR / USD movement will begin to occur in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.0990 - 1.1015 - 1.1035) with the prospect of reaching the equilibrium zone boundaries (1.1070 - 1.1110 - 1.1160) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

On the other hand, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement from September 27, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2385 (the boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.2302 (upper boundary channel of 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork)

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2302, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2302 - 1.2220 - 1.2130) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

However, the breakdown of the resistance level 1.2385 at the boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, it will become possible to develop an upward movement of GBP / USD towards the targets - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2420) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork- the zone of equilibrium (1.2455 - 1.2500 - 1.2545) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the Median Line Minuette (1.2570).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

Similarly, the currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY from September 27, 2019 will also depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 107.70 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 107.55 (upper boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork)

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 107.70) will determine the continued development of the upward movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" to the initial SSL line (108.29) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating the local maximum of 108.48 and reaching the UTL Minuette control line (108.85).

On the contrary, the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (support level of 107.55) - JPY / USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (107.55 - 107.00 - 106.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork taking into account the development - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (107.30) - final Schiff Line Minuette (107.15) - the upper bounday of ISL38.2 (106.55) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The British Parliament resumed work, the political crisis in Great Britain is gaining momentum

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The joy of the bulls on GBP/USD from the verdict of the Supreme Court of Great Britain, which recognized the actions of the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson to suspend the national Parliament as unlawful, was short-lived, since there was no further clarity in the Brexit process. Moreover, the hopes that the head of government, oppressed by a series of defeats, would step down, did not materialize.

The House of Commons resumed its work, and a number of deputies urged B. Johnson to resign, to which he replied that he wanted to hold Brexit and accused the MPs of a sabotage.

"Apparently, the Parliament does not want the British exit from the EU to take place at all. Parliament should either step aside and allow Brexit to take place or a vote of no confidence in the government be passed and ultimately face the voters," he said.

At the same time, the prime minister noted that he was ready for such a turn of events, but recalled that the last step with respect to the cabinet would mean early elections, and suggested that the head of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn, is trying to evade them.

"Does Corbyn still want to be prime minister?" Why won't Labour allow him to cast his spell on the electorate? Is it because they are not only afraid that he will lose, but are even more afraid of the illusive possibility that he can win?" B. Johnson said.

It is worth noting that if the leader of the Scottish National Party, Nicola Sturgeon, stated that the opposition should pass a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, if he does not resign, then Jeremy Corbyn takes a more restrained position. He reiterated his willingness to support early elections only after agreeing on a new Brexit postponement.

Thus, B. Johnson is still at the helm of the cabinet, the risks of early elections have not disappeared, there is still no "divorce" agreement, as well as the confidence that the Brexit deadline will be postponed from October 31 to October January 31st. The British prime minister refuses to ask Brussels about this, and claims that if necessary, he will withdraw the country from the EU on October 31 without a deal.

As for the pound, if the bulls in GBP/USD manage to cling to support at 1.2295-1.231, then the British currency will be able to attract new buyers.

If the bears succeed in pushing the level of 1.2315, then this will increase the risk of a further decline to 1.2270 and further to 1.2200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com