Gold analysis for January 12, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,230.89 in a volume below the average. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe that weak supply has entered the market, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,207.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,191.00. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,226.41


R2: 1,227.25


R3: 1,228.63


Support levels:


S1: 1,223.65


S3: 1,121.41


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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EUR/NZD analysis for January 12, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5210 in an ultra high volume (buying climax). According to the H1 time frame, we can observe demand in an ultra high volume (buying climax) which is a sign that selling EUR/NZD looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5290 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5435. Be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5130


R2: 1.5152


R3: 1.5188


Support levels:


S1: 1.5058


S3: 1.5000


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair at this stage since we have a strong demand in the background.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 12, 2015

General overview for 12/01/2015 09:50 CET


The wave progression on the larger time frame looks completed after the price hit the 61% Fibonacci level and currently is trying to bounce to the upside in order to initiate a new impulsive wave progression. To do this, the market must break above the intraday resistance at the level of 140.55 and above the golden trend line. The final confirmation comes with the level of 141.64 violation in impulsive fashion and neutral range breakout. Please notice the bullish divergence (marked in orange arrows) on momentum oscillator supports the view.


Support/Resistance:


140.00 - Intraday Support|61%Fibo Support|


140.55 - Intraday Resistance


141.31 - Weekly Pivot


141.68 - Intraday Resistance


142.44 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


Swingtraders: sell orders should be closed as the support has been found and trends resumption might be underway.


Daytraders: buy stop orders should be placed from the level of 140.60 with SL below the level of 140.00 and TP at the level of 141.68.


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#USDX technical analysis for January 12, 2015

The Dollar index, as expected, from the last week has made a pullback towards 91.80 and held support at 91.50. Bullish trend resumes, and a break above 92.20 resistance will confirm that we are heading towards a new higher high.


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Blue line = support trend line


The Dollar index pulled back, as we expected, and showed on the H4 chart by the red lines and is bouncing higher off the trend line support. Short-term trend remains bullish, and if we break above 92.20, we will have confirmation that we are heading towards new highs. Support is found at latest low at 91.70. Breaking below this level will imply that we should expect a deeper correction maybe towards 91.20-91.30 where the Ichimoku cloud support is found.


usdxd.jpg

Red line = support levels


Blue line = resistance levels


The Dollar index is bouncing today towards the short-term resistance of 92.20. A 4-hour close above 92.20 will confirm the new uptrend has started with 93 as the first target. A close below 91.70 for the 4-hour candle chart will be a sell signal that could push the index lower towards 91.40-91.50 at least. The longer-term trend remains bullish, and still any pullback is seen as a buy opportunity. I believe, that the Dollar index has more upside towards 94-95 as long as we hold above 90.


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Gold technical analysis for January 12, 2015

Gold price has started an upward breakout on Friday by breaking above $1,218 and the sideways consolidation range. Bulls are in control, but as long as price is below $1,235-40 bulls will need to be very cautious.


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Gold price has already backtested the breakout range earlier today at $1,218. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the trading range of last week. Gold price is short-term bullish as long as price is above $1,215. Resistance is found at $1,235 and $1,240. This is important resistance as can be seen on the daily chart below.


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Gold price is forming a triangle on the daily chart, and this implies that bulls should not feel very confident unless we break out of this triangle pattern thus above $1,240. On the daily chart, prices are holding above the Ichimoku cloud but below the upper triangle boundaries. This is a good place to go short with stop reverse at $1,240. If resistance is broken, we should expect gold price to test $1,270-$1,300. A rejection at current levels could push the index towards $1,180 again.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 12, 2015

General overview for 12/01/2015 09:40 CET


The wave progression to the upside seems to be completed, and the last wave might have been already made missing the target area by 9 pips. However, if the intraday support at the level of 1.1795 will not be violated before the new high is made, then the chances are still high that the orange rectangle target area will be hit, and the market will reverse. This means, this way or another, the corrective decline in wave 4 green might start any time now.


Support/Resistance:


1.1926 - WR1


1.1895 - 1.1912 - Target Zone


1.1887 - Intraday Resistance


1.1829 - Weekly Pivot


1.1795 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


The target zone for wave 5 purple has been established and the daytraders should unload the buy positions in that area. Corrective decline might happen very soon. 1.1926 - WR1


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 12 - 2015

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Technical summary:


Blue wave iii ended at 1.5037. Now, we will be looking for a correction in blue wave iv towards at least 1.5231 and likely even slightly higher towards 1.53551 before blue wave v lowers to 1.4911. In the short term, we should be looking for support near 1.5063 as a break above minor resistance at 1.5136 will confirm the rally to 1.5231 and maybe even higher to 1.5351.


Trading recommendation:


We will be looking for a EUR selling opportunity near 1.5351.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 12 - 2015

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Technical summary:


As expected, the 61.8% corrective target at 140.12 been been tested (the low has been at 140.08). Now, we will be looking for confirmation that the correction from 149.78 is over. The first small indication of a bottom is a break above minor resistance at 140.52 and strong confirmation will be given upon a break above resistance at 141.73 calling for a new rally towards at least 145.35. Above here, calls for a retest of the 149.78 high are on the way higher. That said, as long as minor resistance at 140.52 protects the upside, we must admit the possibility of a move slightly lower to 139.22 before the bottom finally is in place.


Trading recommendation:


We bought EUR at 140.25 and will place our stop at 139.60.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 10, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. Liquidity is thin in Asia on Monday as financial markets in Japan are shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 91.78 versus 92.31 early Friday) as weaker-than-expected 0.17% on-year rise in U.S. December average hourly earnings (versus forecast +0.2%) pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate rise this year, overshadowing stronger-than-expected 252,000 increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls (versus +240,000 forecast) and lower-than-expected U.S. unemployment rate of 5.6% (versus forecast 5.7%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the selling of yen crosses amid decreased risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 3.17% to 17.55, S&P 500 closed 0.84% lower at 2,044.81 Friday) on the unexpectedly weak U.S. wage growth, lower U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.577% versus 0.613% late Thursday), buy-yen orders from Japan's exporters. But USD sentiment is soothed by the larger-than-expected 0.8% increase in U.S. November wholesale inventories (versus forecast +0.4%). USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the sell-yen orders from Japan's importers and Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 117. The pivot point stands at 119. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.40 and the second target at 119.95.


Resistance levels:

119.40

119.95

120.35



Support levels:

117.30

117

116.75


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 10, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment(ICE spot dollar index last 91.78 versus 92.31 early Friday) as weaker-than-expected 0.17% on-year rise in U.S. December average hourly earnings (versus forecast +0.2%) pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate rise this year, overshadowing stronger-than-expected 252,000 increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls (versus +240,000 forecast) and lower-than-expected U.S. unemployment rate of 5.6% (versus forecast 5.7%). But CHF sentiment is dented by the softer-than-expected Switzerland December CPI of -0.3% on-year (versus forecast -0.2%). USD/CHF losses are also tempered by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0090. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 1.0030. The pivot point stands at 1.0175. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.0220 and the second target at 1.0250.


Resistance levels:

1.0220

1.0250

1.0275


Support levels:

1.0090

1.0030

0.9985


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 10, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expecetd to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 91.78 versus 92.31 early Friday) as weaker-than-expected 0.17% on-year rise in U.S. December average hourly earnings (versus forecast +0.2%) pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate rise this year, overshadowing stronger-than-expected 252,000 increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls (versus +240,000 forecast) and lower-than-expected U.S. unemployment rate of 5.6% (versus forecast 5.7%) and widening NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average are rising above 15-day moving average.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.79 and the second target at 0.7920. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 0.7755. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 0.7720. The pivot point is at 0.7785.


Resistance levels:

0.79

0.7920

0.7945



Support levels:


0.7755

0.7720

0.7680


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 10, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to haven yen amid weaker investor risk appetite, narrower-than-expected U.K. November global goods trade deficit of GBP8.8 billion (versus forecast GBP9.5 billion). But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by sterling sales on soft EUR/GBP cross amid waning investor risk appetite.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 178.20. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 177.10. The pivot point stands at 181. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 181.70 and the second target at 182.70.


Resistance levels:

181.70

182.70

183.65


Support levels:

178.20

177.10

176.75


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 12, 2015

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When the European market opens, no economic news is expected from the Euro Zone. Only the US will release the economic data such as the Labor Market Conditions Index m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1922.


Strong Resistance:1.1915.


Original Resistance: 1.1904.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1893.


Target Inner Area: 1.1865.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1837.


Original Support: 1.1826.


Strong Support: 1.1815.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1808.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 12, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data but the US will release the Labor Market Conditions Index m/m. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 119.00.


Resistance. 2: 118.77.


Resistance. 1: 118.54.


Support. 1: 118.26.


Support. 2: 118.03.


Support. 3: 117.79.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 12, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has dropped into the 140.00 levels as seen here and discussed last week. Please note that 140.00 is the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally from 134.00 to 149.80 levels earlier. It is still recommended to remain long and also look to add further positions, risk remains at 139.40/50. Immediate support is seen at 138.00, followed by 136.00 134.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 145.00, followed by 147.00, 148.00 and higher respectively. A bullish reversal from current levels, could be quite encouraging, and could potentially push the pair towards fresh highs above 149.80. A push through 142.00 levels would confirm.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 139.40, the target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 12, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pushed through 1.5400 levels as seen here. Please note that 1.5425 is the 0.618 resistance of drop from 1.5520 to 1.5250 levels. If the pair drops below 1.5300 levels from here, it would indicate that it could reach at least to 1.5200 levels before rallying further up. It is recommended to remain long from earlier positions taken last week and move risk to 1.5300 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.5300 levels, followed by 1.5250, 1.5200 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5425 (interim), followed by 1.5520 respectively. Bulls should remain in control as long as prices remain above 1.5300 levels for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, move stop to 1.5300, the target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for January 12, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold is seen pushing ahead of $1,225.00 levels for now. The metal reversed from $1,205.00 levels last week and could be poised to rally towards $1,238.00 levels from here. A pullback is due either from current levels or from $1,238.00. It is recommended to remain flat for now and let the pair retrace, before initiating long positions again. Immediate support is seen at $1,205.00 levels, followed by $1,170.00, $1,143.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,238.00/40, followed by $1,255.00 and higher respectively. Bulls would remain in control till prices stay above $1,170.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now and wait for a dip before going long again.


Good luck!




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Daily analysis of USDX for January 12, 2015

The USDX is trying to find support on the bullish trend line which is near the level of 91.93 on the H4 chart. Now, the USDX could rise to the resistance level of 92.62 and this is the strongest hypothesis so far, because we do not yet see the formation of trend-reversal patterns in this time frame. The MACD indicator remains solid in the bearish trend.


H4 chart's resistance levels: 92.62 / 93.75


H4chart's support levels: 91.62 / 91.17


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On the H1 chart, the USDX has made a retracement below the 92.08 level. So, this instrument is likely to touch the support level of 91.66 in the coming hours. However, there is still a good chance that the USDX will again consolidate above the resistance level of 92.08, while the 200-day moving average is approaching the current price of the USDX.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 92.08 / 92.51


H1 chart's support levels: 91.66 / 91.24


USDXH1.png

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 92.08, take profit is at 92.51, and stop loss is at 91.66.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 12, 2015

On the H4 chart, the bearish consolidation in the GBP/USD pair is still alive, because this pair is attempting to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5148 to rise to the level of 1.5341 in the medium term. For this to come to be met, the GBP/USD pair should form a higher high pattern above the 1.5200 psychological level. The MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.5341 / 1.5485


H4chart's support levels: 1.5148 / 1.5017


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GBP/USD has gained positions above the support level of 1.5146, so that the next target in the short term would be the resistance level of 1.5198. This recovery in the GBP/USD pair was imminent, because this pair has been in a steep decline for several days. Therefore, caution should be exercised when placing buy orders with targets in the medium term.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5198 / 1.5249


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5146 / 1.5110


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5146, take profit is at 1.5110, and stop loss is at 1.5183.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 12, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair trended downwards last week. It is going below the support line at 1.1800, but unable to close below that line. There is now a slight upwards bounce in the market, which could be the beginning of a medium-term buying pressure in the market. The resistance line at 1.1950 could be challenged.


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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair tested the resistance level at 1.0200 vigorously, but it was unable to break it to the upside. There is now a slight dip in the market, but with further strength in the USD, the resistance level could be breached to the upside. On the other hand, there is a possibility that the price may test the support lines at 1.0100 and 1.0050 this week.


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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair trended further downwards by roughly 250 pips last week, challenging the accumulation territory at 1.5050. More downwards movement was halted at this point, and the price bounced upwards, going above the accumulation territory at 1.5150. The accumulation territory at 1.5050 can now defend the market against a movement that could go below it.


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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument closed at 118.45 on Friday, January 9, 2015, on a bearish note. The market has been volatile recently - moving in swings. The demand level at 118.00 could be breached to the upside before bulls come in to push the price upwards.


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EUR/JPY: This cross moved further downwards last week; which led to a stronger Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The cross moved downwards by around 350 pips last week and it could move further downwards this week.


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Weekly technical levels for EUR/USD for January 12-16, 2015

The weekly technical levels for EUR/USD pair:


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Trading recommendations :



  • The support of the EUR/USD pair has already set at 1.1717 on January 12, 2015. Furthermore, it will be very profitable to buy above this level for retesting this level in the long term. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the weekly support 1 with targets at 1.1864 (the level of 1.1856 represents the weekly pivot point and the level of 1.1864 coincides with the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement level) and continues toward the point of 1.1975 to reach the double top. On the contrary, the resistance is going to set at the level of 1.1959 this week. Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 1.1975 level with the targets at the weekly pivot point (1.1856) and 1.1766.


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Observations :



  • If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: EUR is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

  • Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.

  • Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down. If you sell or buy in the long term, you will surely lose your profit.


Tips :



  • R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.

  • Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines.

  • Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continues moving.

  • If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 and R3 or S2 and S3.


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Weekly technical levels for GBP/USD for January 12-16, 2015

The weekly technical levels of GBP/USD pair:


gbpusd_pp.png

Forecast :



  • According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between 1.5068 and 1.5255. The level of 1.5306 represents strong resistance. Also, it should be noted that the price of 1.5318 coincides with the ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement levels. The minor support has set at the level of 1.5102. Hence, we expect a range about 58 pips on January 12. Therefore, the market is going to call for a downtrend from the level of 1.5285. Thus, sell below the level of 1.5285 in the short term with the first target of 1.5143, it might resume to 1.5053 if the trend will be able to break the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.5171. It should be noted that the weekly support 1 will set at 1.5023.


Notes :



  • According to our statistics, it was found out that the range was between 240 pips and 285 pips and the average range was around 266 pips.

  • Major support will set at 1.5023 on January 12, 2015.

  • The level of 1.5170 represents the weekly pivot point.

  • Major resistance has already set at the price of 1.5306.

  • It should be noted that the weekly range was not very large for the last four weeks.


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