EUR/USD analysis for August 29, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2070 in an ultra high volume. Anyway, according to the 15M time frame, I found buying climax in the background, which is a sign of weakness. After the climax activity, I found a no demand bar and upthrust, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1985.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2000

R2: 1.2030

R3: 1.2070

Support levels:

S1: 1.1935

S2: 1.1890

S3: 1.1865

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for August 29, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2978 in an ultra high volume. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found buying climax in the background, which is a sign of weakness. After the climax activity, I found a weak demand, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2925 and 1.2900.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2960

R2: 1.2990

R3: 1.3040

Support levels:

S1: 1.2890

S2: 1.2845

S3: 1.2815

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7264 and 0.7281. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7264, which coincides with a golden ratio (50% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7264. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7264/0.7281. Hence, buy above the levels of 0.7264/0.7281 with the first target at 0.7306 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7320. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7337 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6274, a further decline to 0.7225 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has faced strong resistances at the levels of 0.9475 because support had become resistance on August 29, 2017. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9475 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9475, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9475. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the area of 0.9475/0.9500 so it will be good to sell at 0.9475 with the first target of 0.9406. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9367. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9367. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9515.
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested on August 16.

On the other hand, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 29, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080-1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 should be watched for a valid BUY entry if a bearish pullback occurs soon.

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Global macro overview for 29/08/2017

Global macro overview for 29/08/2017:

It looks like at least one of the promises made by Trump during the election campaign might be fulfilled. Newly appointed US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has told Congress in May 2017 that President Trump is planning to start talks with Mexico and Canada to modernize the "worst deal in history". After the first round of negotiations, the president Trump himself stated, that the United States can withdraw from NAFTA. The second round of talks is scheduled for 1-5 September in Mexico.

Canada and Mexico are pushing back against Trump's attempts to renegotiate the agreement. The core of the differences between the NAFTA members probably lies in the outsourcing of a good deal of US manufacturing jobs to Mexico and concerns over Canadian commodity imports. This major shift in US trade relations will directly affect both Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar, which had been enjoying some support recently from diminishing fears that the US could terminate the agreement. In particular, the very difficult situation will be for the Bank of Canada, which announced a new path in monetary policy recently. So far the Canadian economy had adapted to the low oil price economy without any major failures, but the recent developments will make the economy to face completely different and more difficult environment.

If the Bank of Canada will continue to normalize the monetary policy by introducing more interest rate hikes and the oil prices will rebound higher before the end of the year, then CAD should be strengthening gradually, even into next year. The global investors should then keep an eye on three main factors of influence here: low domestic inflation in Canada, NAFTA negotiations and a potential tightening of global financial conditions.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has fallen towards the level of 1.2411 again after the failure to rally over the technical resistance at the level of 1.2534. Breakout below the level of 1.2411 will open the road towards the next important technical support at the level of 1.2124.

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Global macro overview for 29/08/2017

Global macro overview for 29/08/2017:

The main theme on markets since the Asian session started were news about another North Korean ballistic test. This time a projectile shot over the northern part of the Japanese island of Hokkaido and landed 1180 km east of the island. This was the most provocative act on the part of North Korea so far and cause a flight-to-safety reaction on the financial markets. Risky assets (Nikkei, AUD, NZD) were sold off across the board and safe assets like CHF, JPY, and Gold appreciated (USD/JPY fell 100 pips to 108.30, the lowest level in 4 months). If the missile actually hit Japan's territory (and the first press allowed such a scenario), we would be in a completely different geopolitical reality. North Korea begins to play a dangerous game, although experts opinion is, that no party of the conflict (North Korea, China, Japan, US) is interested in global war. The market participants are aware of this, which also explains the relatively quick partial recovery of the initial shock. Although Japan and the United States warn against increasing pressure and sanctions on North Korea, they are not going to do anything more than that. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confined himself to saying that the missile test of Korea was "unprecedented, dangerous and serious". During the day, markets will be waiting for the US response to this situation, but if the tone does not diverge from the signals from Tokyo, there is no reason to expect a deepening of risk aversion.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. This pair did not react much to the ongoing situation yet as it is still trading inside of a range of the levels of 1.1352 - 1.1446. The bearish divergence makes the price vulnerable for a further slide towards the level of 1.1270, especially if the geopolitical situation gets worse suddenly.

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Trading plan for 29/08/2017

Trading plan for 29/08/2017:

The risk aversion remains in the Asian session, pushing down the Nikkei index (-0.5%) after the news that North Korea fired a missile towards Japan. Franc and Gold gains, the strongest losses are noted on AUD and NZD currency. Crude oil bounces slightly from Monday's low.. USD/JPY fell from 109.30 to 108.30, EUR/USD is eight pips away from 1.2000 level.

On Tuesday 29th of August, the event calendar is light in important news releases. The market participants will keep an eye on French GDP data, German Gfk Consumer Climate data during the London session. Later on, the data from Canada will be published ( Raw Materials Price Index data ) and the US (CB Consumer Confidence data).

EUR/USD analysis for 29/08/2017:

The German Gfk Consumer Climate data were slightly better than expected (10.9 vs. 10.8 points), but the French GDP for the second quarter was released unchanged at the level of 0.5% as expected. Gfk's Consumer Climate Indicator (CCI) has increased to the highest levels in more than a decade. In the report, the global investors can read, that: "Based on the estimations of German consumers, the German economy will develop positively over the further course of the remaining year", which means the current customer sentiment remains on the elevated levels. Nevertheless, after the recent Retail PMI data from Germany (fall to the lowest level since January), the sentiment among the customers might decrease a little. It does not mean it will reverse, but the rate of growth looks set to decelerate. On the other hand, the accelerating higher exchange rate of EUR.USD is starting to become uncomfortable for German exporters.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market broke out through 1.2000 round number level with a high at the level of 1.2025 at the time of writing. The bias remains bullish as there is no sign of bearish divergence despite the overbought market conditions. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2000 and in a case of a deeper correction, the level of 1.1908. The next stop for the bulls will be the Fibonacci extension of 161.8 percent at the level of 1.2060.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY made another lower low

The price of USD/JPY has broken below the local technical support at the level of 108.79 and made another lower low at the level of 108.30. The geopolitical situation is causing a risk aversion among the global investors, so the currencies like JPY and CHF are appreciating across the board. The bias is still to the downside and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 108.12.

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Market Snapshot: Gold breaks above the resistance

The price of Gold has broken through the technical resistance zone between the levels of $1300 - $1308 and hit the 127% of Fibonacci Extension at the level of $1322. Gold is being now treated as "safe heaven" as the geopolitical uncertainty is increasing. The bias remains bullish and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of $1337.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for August 29, 2017

The Dollar as expected is heading towards 91.60 which was our target for the last couple of weeks. We posted an analysis right on time when the bullish channel and the consolidation were broken downwards and a new sell signal was given. Since then we target 91.60.

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The price is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen. The short-term trend is clearly bearish, as the price is making lower lows and lower highs. Oscillators are making new lows and there is no sign of a divergence yet. Resistance is at 92.30 and next at 92.75.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Purple lines - expanding triangle pattern

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend confirmed once the weekly candles broke below the weekly Kumo. The price has now broken below the 200 MA and is heading towards the lower boundary of the expanding triangle pattern. This target is around 90.70-90, depending on the time it will take to move towards the purple line. Once we get there, we see how strong of a support and pattern this will be. Weekly resistance is at 93.50. Breaking above it will start a strong bounce that could push the index back towards 95-96.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for August 29, 2017

The Gold price has reached our $1,320 which was our first target. The trend remains bullish. Gold could reverse from current levels to back test $1,300 or even $1,280 but overall we remain long-term bullish.

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The price is above both tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. The trend is clearly bullish. Short-term support is at $1,310, next at $1,300 and next at $1,288. Resistance is at $1,350 now.

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Purple line - resistance

Black line - long-term resistance

Blue line -long-term support

The Gold price has broken above the weekly Kumo (cloud) and above the long-term black trend line resistance from its all time highs. The trend is bullish. The price is heading now towards $1,350 where the next resistance trend line is found.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 29, 2017

Forex analysis review
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 29, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 29, 2017

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Wave summary:

The rally towards resistance at 1.6636 has worked out just as expected. Once tested this should complete red wave iii and call for a correction in red wave iv towards at least 1.6305 and likely even closer to 1.6175 before turning up again towards 1.6969.

R3: 1.6969

R2: 1.6744

R1: 1.6636

Pivot: 1.6495

S1: 1.6445

S2: 1.6305

S3: 1.6175

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6150 and will move our stop higher to 1.6435. We will take profit at 1.6620. If you are not long EUR yet, then wait for the expected correction to 1.6175 to buy EUR.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 29, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more upside closer to 137.36 to complete wave D of the huge ongoing triangle consolidation. Short-term, we are looking for support near 129.03 to be able to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 134.80 on the way higher to 137.36.

R3: 134.80

R2: 132.65

R1: 131.40

Pivot: 131.00

S1: 129.64

S2: 129.03

S3: 128.67

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.50 and will move our stop to break-even at 128.50. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 129.03 and use the same stop at 128.50

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The pound played on the weaknesses of the enemy

The British pound managed a rapid counterattack against the US dollar due to the fiery speech of Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole. Yellen did not say anything negative about the American currency which is also not necessary. Investors took the GBP/USD quotes and there were hints of risk against the third hike in the federal fund's rate for this year. After these are not mentioned in the speech of Fed Reserve Chair, it began to massively discard the US dollar. According to Reuters, the net speculative position of the "American" has increased to $9.4 billion.

The main reason for the bears' struggle with the GBP/USD is political risks. The inability of Donald Trump to implement his campaign promises turned into a sudden collapse of the USD index. At the same time, fears over Brexit were muted which shifted the focus of the market's attention towards the growth rates of the economies of the two countries, along with the possible rate increase of the Bank of England and the Fed. In this respect, the positive reasons for the pound correction include the slowest growth in the GDP of Foggy Albion among other G10 currency issuing states, as well as, the reduction of chances in the 20% monetary restriction of the BoE this year.

Dynamics of business activity and GDP of Britain

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Source: Trading Economics.

Investors are accustomed to using the principle of "buy the rumor, sell the fact", a difficult October for the Sterling could lead to a decline in its rate in September. In the middle of autumn, a conference of the Conservative Party is scheduled where a decision will be made concerning doubts on Theresa May in reviving political risks for the pound. After that, the EU summit will be held, as the slow negotiations on Brexit will be discussed.

In connection with these events, a number of banks predicted that the EUR/GBP pair will be able to achieve parity before the end of the year. However, the ING Group is confident that this will not happen. The Bank of England is discontented with the increase of inflation under the influence of the sterling devaluation, hence, will continue to intrigue about raising the REPO rate, which will support the GBP/USD bulls.

Take note that in September, the clouds will thicken over the dollar linked with the discussion of issues related to the ceiling of the national debt. A number of senators might say that the risks of keeping the debt at the same level which is at the technical default zero, and the 100% certainty of success by Finance Minister Steve Mnuchin will allow investors to remember 2013 perfectly. Then, the government's cutoff led to a slowdown in the economic growth and dealt a blow to the US currency.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair has entered a significant area in the form of the intersection of long-term downward and medium-term upward trading channels. If the "bulls" manage to develop a correction within the framework of the transformation of the pattern "Shark" at 5-0, then the growth of prices in the direction of 1.302 and 1.308 is not ruled out.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 29, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y, Unemployment Rate, Household Spending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as CB Consumer Confidence and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 109.34.

Resistance. 2: 109.13.

Resistance. 1: 108.91.

Support. 1: 108.66.

Support. 2: 108.44.

Support. 3: 108.23.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 29, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Prelim GDP q/q, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German GfK Consumer Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as CB Consumer Confidence and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2023.

Strong Resistance:1.2016.

Original Resistance: 1.2004.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1992.

Target Inner Area: 1.1964.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1936.

Original Support: 1.1924.

Strong Support: 1.1912.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1905.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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GBP/USD testing major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is testing major resistance at 1.2938 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level for a drop to at least 1.2837 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is testing major resistance at 93% and we expect a corresponding reaction off that level similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 1.2938. Stop loss is at 1.2994. Take profit is at 1.2837.

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USD/CHF testing our buying area, time to start buying

The price has dropped as expected towards our buying level. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 0.9519 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal support) for a bounce up to at least 0.9617 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic is approaching major support at 3.1% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 0.9519. Stop loss is at 0.9483. Take profit is at 0.9617.

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NZD/USD remain bullish above major support

We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 0.7202 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a further push up to at least 0.7331 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major support above 3.3% where we're seeing a corresponding bounce from along with good upside potential.

Buy below 0.7202. Stop loss is at 0.7153. Take profit is at 0.7331.

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USD/JPY remain bullish right above major support

The price continues to test our major level of support. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support of 108.66 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, bullish price action) for a push up to at least 109.80 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). It is important to be wary of the descending resistance as price approaches it.

Stochastic (21,5,3) is approaching major support at 2.3%.

Buy above 108.66. Stop loss is at 108.28. Take profit is at 109.80

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AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy above major support

The price has touched our selling area and dropped perfectly as expected. We prepare to buy above major support at 85.45 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce up to at least 86.44 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, descending resistance).

RSI (55) sees an ascending support line holding the bullish momentum in price.

Buy above 85.45. Stop loss is at 85.15. Take profit is at 86.44.

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AUD/USD dropped perfectly as expected, prepare to buy for an intermediate correction

The price has dropped perfectly from our selling area towards our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7909 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, bullish price action) for a push up to 0.7963 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) once again.

RSI (34) sees a pullback to our descending resistance-turned-support line.

Buy above 0.7909. Stop loss is at 0.7880. Take profit is at 0.7963.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 29, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair went upward significantly on Friday and on Monday, leading to a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. It is expected that price would continue going upwards until it reaches the resistance line at 1.2000. At that point, bears would offer a fierce resistance against bulls. The price may fall at that point.

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USD/CHF: What happened in this market last week, has resulted in a bearish signal (especially given the continuous bullish journey on the EUR/USD, which would help drive the USD/CHF price further into the southwards territory). The recent neutrality in the market is over and the price would go further downwards.

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GBP/USD: The movements on major pairs are becoming interesting. A bullish signal has been generated on the GBP/USD, as price goes above the accumulation territory at 1.2900, going towards the distribution territory at 1.2950 (which would be breached to the upside soon). There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is neutral in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. The neutrality is currently being ended as the USD/JPY price goes further downwards, testing the demand level at 108.50 and posing to break it to the downside. After the demand level at 108.50 has been broken to the downside, the next target would be the demand level at 108.00.

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EUR/JPY: This cross generated a bullish signal at the end of last week and then went further upwards yesterday. The current pullback that is being seen in the market is a wonderful opportunity to buy long when things are on sale, and in the context of an uptrend. It is possible for this cross to gain additional 200 pips before it reverses seriously.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 29, 2017

USDX remains strong in the bearish bias across the board and it's now forming a lower low pattern that opens the doors for further weakness. To the downside, if the index manages to break below Monday's lows, it can plummet towards the 92.09 level. The 200 SMA is still providing the path for the short-term and is calling for more downside.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 93.72

H1 chart's support levels: 92.51 / 92.09

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.51, take profit is at 92.09 and stop loss is at 92.91.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 29, 2017

GBP/USD opened the week with a bullish gap that was rapidly fulfilled. That move allowed the pair to consolidate above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it's on the way to test the resistance zone of 1.2958. If it manages to break above it, then we might expect further strength towards 1.3013. MACD indicator remains in the neutral territory, favoring to a sideways scenario in the short-term.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2958 / 1.3013

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2842 / 1.2761

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2842, take profit is at 1.2761 and stop loss is at 1.2921.

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Yellen and Draghi supported the euro

Eurozone

ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at the symposium of the Fed in Jackson Hole, said that he saw no reason to abandon the current rules of financial regulation, thus supporting the position of Janet Yellen. Both central banks are going, by all indications, continue to pursue a coordinated policy.

From Draghi's speech, it follows that the removal of stimulation in the eurozone is premature, and the euro has reacted with an increase.

At the same time, a number of key indicators indicate that the stimulus has already played a role. The index of business optimism from IFO fell in August to 115.9p against 116p a month earlier, but still at a record high level. The German economy is growing steadily and there is no sign of cooling.

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That fact is the confirmation of the strong growth in the eurozone economy. The highest growth rate of consumer lending since 2009 has also been recorded this year. On Monday, the data for July will be published, and there is reason to expect that an increase in lending will be shown again.

On Tuesday, GfK will present its version of consumer confidence studies in Germany, on Wednesday the European Commission its own, and Thursday will be the most busy day of the week - the report on retail sales and the labor market in Germany for July, as well as the preliminary value of consumer inflation in the eurozone in August will be published. At this point the forecasts are cautious, as experts do not see reasons to wait for inflation growth at the moment. On Friday, Markit's business activity indices will be published, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact, as the market will wait for a report on employment in the US.

Beginning Thursday, a week of silence will start before the ECB meeting on September 7. Attention will be focused on possible leakage of information about future decisions of the regulator. Economic reasons for the decline of the euro is almost none, the euro will hold a week favorite, it is possible to try to reach 1.2030 / 50.

United Kingdom

The main factor that will put the pressure on the pound is still the negotiations regarding Brexit. While the situation is far from a compromise, the discussion of a new trade agreement, scheduled earlier in October, is postponed indefinitely. The pound can get a long-awaited driver for growth, especially paired with the euro, only if negotiations make progress and with a reasonable amount of British debt for exit from the EU.

The macroeconomic data released last week turned out to be weak. The growth of commercial investments in the second quarter turned out to be zero, as investors are in no hurry to finance the UK economy until clarity on Brexit appears.

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On Wednesday, interest will be caused by the publication of consumer expectations in August from Gfk. A decrease to -12p a month earlier was the lowest since 2013, and experts expect the index to worsen to -13p. On Friday, there is the PMI index from Markit and the expectations are neutral.

The pound remains under pressure even against the weak dollar, and increase attempts will be limited to the level of 1.30, more likely to decline by the end of the week to 1.2650.

Oil

The OPEC camps are preparing for the next meeting, which will be held on September 22 and will be held in an expanded format. At the meeting, at the request of the organizing committee, "all options" will be considered, including an additional reduction in production. Long-term is a bullish factor for oil, as is the slowdown in production in the US due to the rapid growth of accumulated debt by shale companies that are unable not only to make a profit, but also to pay debts at current prices.

The report of Baker Hughes, according to which the number of oil wells decreased last week from 763 to 759, was ignored because the focus was on the consequences of the hurricane and the Fed symposium.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 08/28 - 09/01/2017

Trading plan 28.08 - 01.09.2017

The overall picture: The focus of attention shifts to the US data. But a week later it will move to the the ECB.

On Friday, a meeting of the heads of the Central Bank took place in Jackson Hole. The heads of the ECB and the Fed spoke. The main thing in the statement is that the central bank is not ready to soften the regulations of the financial sector, which was significantly tightened after the 2008-2009 crisis. This particularly pertains the tight regulation of the ECB, but the Fed is agreeable. This is directly against Trump's intention to weaken the regulation of the financial sector.

But the markets reacted to what they did not say. And they did not mention about the start of the plan to exit the easy monetary policy - this was what everyone was waiting for. As a result, the dollar fell. EURUSD made an impressive upward surge on Friday and reached 1.1955 on Monday morning, breaking through the weekly level of 1.1910.

However, the intrigue surrounding the policy of the central bank has only been postponed:the ECB meeting is already on September 6, and there should be a clear answer to the question: When will be the completion of the infusion of funds?

Another reason for EURUSD players to think about the fate of the trend: elections in Germany is on September 27. It seems that there is no issue, but before elections there is always a weakening of the currency, most often.

In the new week, the main thing is news on the US, first of all - the labor market. On Wednesday August 30 - the report on employment from ADP, on Friday - nonfarm payroll data is due. On Wednesday, the US GDP report - but it should be taken into account that this is the second reading.

EURUSD

There is an upward trend. The goal so far - the upper boundary of the rising channel is 1.2090. Selling from 1.2090 with a stop no more than 45 points ( the channel boundary is specified on time).

Buying: With rebound. Selling area 1.1870 - 1.1820

Buying are possible after a rollback on the scale of H4 and the formation of a level to break through to the top with a potential to the last maximum of at least 50 points.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com