Simplified wave Analysis. Review of the GBP / USD for November 8

Wave pattern graphics H4:

From August 15, the trend of the major trend. The first parts of the wave are completely formed.

Wave pattern graphics H1:

Beginning from September 20, a downward wave zigzag in the H4 wave.

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Wave pattern graphics M15:

The wave of October 30 has a pronounced impulse character. The price is approached. Before the final pull-down, a lateral flat is likely.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Sales pair are premature. It is recommended to track the signal. The preliminary lifting potential is limited to rated resistance.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3220 / 1.3270

Support areas:

- 1.3050 / 1.3000

Explanations for the figures: The simplified waveform analysis (A - B - C). For the analysis, 3 main TFs are used, it is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the number of wave markings used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure.

Note: The wave algorithm doesn't take into account the movement of movement over time. To trade a trade transaction, you need to confirm your trading systems!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil production in the USA breaks records, which causes OPEC fears

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According to the US Department of Energy, commercial reserves of crude oil in the country once again showed growth, updating the record for the extraction of "black gold". Reserves are growing for the seventh consecutive week, and experts suggest that the United States has already formed an excess of hydrocarbons, which makes OPEC and Russia, in particular, to think about a new stage of reduction in global oil production.

Over the last week, production has increased by 400 thousand barrels per day. Now, the US produces 11.6 million barrels daily. Crude oil inventories rose by 5.783 million barrels, although analysts had forecast growth of 2.4 million barrels. During the previous reporting period, stocks increased by almost 6 million barrels. Against this background, Brent and WTI oil prices went down: to $ 71 and $ 61 per barrel, respectively.

Russia and Saudi Arabia have also increased their production volumes in recent months. In September, Russia increased production to 11.54 million barrels per day, and the Saudis to 10.5 million barrels per day. The OPEC + organization thinks about continuing to cut production in 2019. Discussion of this issue will be held at a meeting of the ministerial monitoring committee of the organization in Abu Dhabi on November 11.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 8

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the upward trend continuation is expected after the breakdown of 1.1470 and we consider the downward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we increase the potential for the upward movement to the level of 1.3350. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we are following the development of the downward structure from October 31 and we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 0.9994. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the breakdown level of 113.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we follow the ascending structure of October 26 and we expect a further upward movement after the breakdown of 130.05. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price is near the limiting values for the ascending structure of October 26, and therefore, we expect a departure to the correction after the breakdown of 148.16.

Forecast for November 8:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1582, 1.1538, 1.1508, 1.1470, 1.1424, 1.1403, 1.1371 and 1.1344. Here, we are following the ascending structure of October 31. We continue the upward movement after the breakdown of 1.1470. In this case, the first target is 1.1508 and the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 1.1538, near this value is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1582, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1424 - 1.1403 and the breakdown of the latter will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the target is 1.1371 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.1344.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1470 Take profit: 1.1505

Buy 1.1509 Take profit: 1.1536

Sell: 1.1424 Take profit: 1.1404

Sell: 1.1400 Take profit: 1.1374

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3350, 1.3259, 1.3174, 1.3090, 1.3035 and 1.2938. Here, we are following the ascending structure of October 30. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3174. In this case, the target is 1.3259, price consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3350, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3090 - 1.3035 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2938 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3174 Take profit: 1.3257

Buy: 1.3260 Take profit: 1.3350

Sell: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3038

Sell: 1.3032 Take profit: 1.2944

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0093, 1.0057, 1.0037, 0.9994, 0.9964, 0.9944 and 0.9918. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 31. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9994. In this case, the target is 0.9964 and in the range of 0.9964 - 0.9944 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.9918, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.0037 - 1.0057 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form an ascending structure. In this case, the goal is 1.0093.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0037 Take profit: 1.0055

Buy: 1.0063 Take profit: 1.0090

Sell: 0.9994 Take profit: 0.9967

Sell: 0.9962 Take profit: 0.9948

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.48, 114.21, 113.77, 113.46, 112.88, 112.44 and 112.13. Here, we are following the development of the ascending cycle of October 26. The short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, is possible in the range of 113.46 - 113.77 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 114.21. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.48, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

Exit to correction is expected after the breakdown of 112.88. In this case, the goal is 112.44 and in the range of 112.44 - 112.13 is the short-term downward movement. To the level of 112.13, we expect registration of the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend: the ascending cycle of October 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.48 Take profit: 113.75

Buy: 113.80 Take profit: 114.20

Sell: 112.85 Take profit: 112.55

Sell: 112.42 Take profit: 112.15

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3269, 1.3222, 1.3191, 1.3168, 1.3089, 1.3060 and 1.3021. Here, the situation entered into an equilibrium state. In order to continue moving upward, it is necessary to design the local structure. The upward movement is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3168 - 1.3191. In this case, the first target is 1.3222 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3269, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3089 - 1.3060, hence a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 1.3060 will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3021.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3191 Take profit: 1.3220

Buy: 1.3224 Take profit: 1.3269

Sell: 1.3089 Take profit: 1.3062

Sell: 1.3058 Take profit: 1.3024

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7344, 0.7313, 0.7288, 0.7260, 0.7238 and 0.7209. Here, we are following the rising structure of October 26. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7288. In this case, the target is 0.7313, from this level, the likelihood of a downward rollback is high. We consider the level of 0.7344 to be a potential value for an uptrend, upon reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7260 - 0.7238 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7209 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of October 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7288 Take profit: 0.7110

Buy: 0.7115 Take profit: 0.7342

Sell: 0.7260 Take profit: 0.7240

Sell: 0.7236 Take profit: 0.7212

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 131.60, 130.86, 130.48, 130.05, 129.48, 129.16 and 128.56. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of October 26. The upward movement is expected after breakdown of 130.05. In this case, the goal is 130.48 and in the range of 130.48 - 130.86 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 131.60, the movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 130.90.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 129.48 - 129.16 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 128.56 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.05 Take profit: 130.45

Buy: 130.53 Take profit: 130.82

Sell: 129.48 Take profit: 129.20

Sell: 129.10 Take profit: 128.60

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 148.16, 147.51, 147.02 and 146.22. Here, we are not considering further targets for the upward movement, and we expect a rollback to correction to take place, which should occur after the breakdown of 148.16. In this case, the first target is 147.51. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 147.51 - 147.02 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 146.22 and design of the expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the upward cycle from October 26, we expect to go into correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 148.16 Take profit: 147.55

Sell: 147.46 Take profit: 147.04

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Buy or sell a dollar?

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The mid-term elections in the US ended, and the markets felt relieved. Many thought that the separation of Congress and the prospects for a legislative impasse would put pressure on the dollar, but excessive emotionality was unjustified.

"We hope that next year we will be able to work together to improve the quality of life of the American people, including in the field of economic growth, infrastructure, trade, reducing the cost of prescription drugs. Democrats will offer their projects in the areas of infrastructure and health, and we will come to an agreement," Donald Trump expressed readiness for negotiations, and the markets liked it.

Life goes on, the Fed will continue to increase rates, and the Democrats, most likely, will not resist too much tax cuts for the middle class.

JP Morgan analysts write because Trump cannot rely on either the Central Bank or Congress at this time, he needs to improve relations with China in order to maintain economic growth. This is a bullish factor for EUR / USD. Beijing is ready for dialogue and, judging by the reduction in gold and foreign exchange reserves in October, is doing everything possible to keep the yuan afloat. Having overcome the levels of 1.13 and 1.15, the main currency pair returned to its original positions and concentrated on the more important today, the FOMC meeting.

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Regarding the leadership of the regulator, after the strong statistics on the labor market in October, they are unlikely to make any serious changes in the rhetoric compared with the last meeting. Then the statement of the Central Bank about its readiness to switch temporarily to a moderately-tough policy encouraged the American currency. Now traders are thinking about buying or selling a dollar?

According to Nordea analysts, the American Central Bank has no compelling reasons for changing rhetoric. Increasing the rate once a quarter by 25 bp still remains the basic forecast of the bank. On Thursday, the rate is likely to remain the same, traders need to pay attention to the totality of the press release, where officials are likely to hint at a rate increase in December by 25 bp. It is noted that this growth rate has not yet fully incorporated into market expectations. The probability of an increase from betting futures is estimated at 68%. If the Fed keeps tough rhetoric, it will inspire the dollar, which today partially restores its position after a moderate decline in the results of elections to the US Congress.

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The deterrent for the dollar is the lack of support from both houses of Congress for the White House's host. This reduces its ability to further stimulate the economy. The newly elected congressmen will start working on January 3, 2019, which means that a more intense atmosphere in Congress and in relations between Trump and Congress will begin to be felt only at the beginning of the year. Particularly emotionally, the issue of increasing the ceiling of US government debt, which is traditional for the beginning of the year, will probably be discussed.

It is expected that a combination of factors will weaken the position of the dollar early next year. The currency pair EUR / USD may move closer to 1.19 by mid-2019.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 8. The outlook for the pair looks foggy.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 7 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair gained about 25 basis points more. However, it is not enough to assume the completion of an upward wave of the bases. Moreover, on October 30, the pair could start building a new uptrend trend, but its development will largely depend on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. Thus, it can now be said that a pair can move practically in any direction and construct any wave formation. Thus, I recommend trading with this pair extremely carefully.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3124 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

1.3256 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2638 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD remains in the process of building an upward wave. It is not yet clear to which wave structure this wave will relate, since there are several options at once. A sufficiently strong upward impulse suggests that the pair is ready to build a corrective downward wave, which can easily be transformed, with a negative news background for the pound, into a new downward set of waves.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 8. The pair is preparing to resume the main downward trend.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the Wednesday's trading, the EUR / USD currency pair showed a high amplitude but ended the day at the opening levels. Thus, at the moment, there are still grounds for assuming the construction of wave 3, 1, of a new upward trend section. At the same time, there is a backup option, in which the entire section of the trend, taking its beginning on September 24, will take a 5-waveform. This option is supported by an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% of the Fibonacci level, which may mean that the pair is ready to build a downward impulse wave.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1302 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1496 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.1557 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair may complete the construction of an upward set of waves and complicate the downward trend. If this assumption is true, the decline in quotations will continue under the 13 figure. The departure of the pair below the minimum of the supposed wave 2 will confirm the pair's readiness to build a new descending wave. In this case, I will recommend new sales for a pair with targets below 13 figures.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. November 8th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Market optimism on Brexit may begin to subside

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 94.2018

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, November 8, started the minimum correction and dropped to Murray's level of "7/8" - 1.3123. The pair cannot decline further, as the upward mood remains on the market. This is especially true of the pound sterling. In recent weeks, the market has been filled with optimism about signing an agreement on Brexit, and this is what keeps pushing the pair up, despite the fact that the "deal" is still not signed, the UK has been in a political crisis for a long time, and all the country's macroeconomic indicators leave much to be desired . But we have already written that in any case, one of the currencies (in our case, the dollar) cannot constantly go up. We need at least technical corrections. Therefore, despite the rather strong growth of the British currency in recent weeks, we believe that the trend for the pair remains downward. And mainly from a fundamental point of view. In the meantime, the Luxembourg court will urgently consider a case on the interpretation of certain articles of the Lisbon Treaty. The main question concerns whether a country that has expressed a desire to leave the European Union can refuse this decision unilaterally. The Lisbon Treaty says nothing about this. The case was initiated by a Scottish court and politicians who were initially against Brexit. From our point of view, this is another possible sticking point that will prevent Theresa May from completing the British exit from the EU.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has begun to be adjusted, as indicated by the indicator Heikin Ashi. Thus, to open new long positions with the target of 1.3184, you should wait until the current correction completes.

Sell positions can be opened no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average line. Only in this case, we can expect a decrease in the pair.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. November 8th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Draghi's speech and the Fed meeting are key events of

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 49.7226

The currency pair EUR / USD on Thursday, November 8, began a corrective movement, having failed to overcome the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.1475. At the moment, the price has fallen to the moving average line and has not gone below it yet. We already wrote earlier that the demand for Eurocurrency remains low and the short-term uptrend can be broken at any minute. There are no weighty reasons for the growth of the euro right now. If the pound grows on expectations of an agreement between the EU and the UK, then for the euro, this topic (Brexit) is less important. Therefore, we are now seeing a purely technical correction, and if the pair does not receive strong fundamental support in the near future, then most likely, traders will return to purchases of the American currency. Today is the scheduled speech of the ECB Mario Draghi. It is not yet known what topics will be touched upon in his speech, however, he may potentially report something new both on the topic of Brexit and on the monetary policy of the European Union. Late in the evening, the results of the Fed meeting will be announced. Press conferences this time will not. Only the announcement of the rate (which is likely to remain unchanged) and the accompanying statements of the Fed. Thus, it is the Fed's comments on monetary policy that will cause more interest, and not the key rate decision.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1414

S2 - 1.1353

S3 - 1,1292

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1.1536

R3 - 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Thus, to open new long positions with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1536, Heiken Ashi indicator should turn upward, which will mean the completion of the correction.

It is recommended to open sell orders with the target of 1.1353 if traders consolidate below the moving average. In this case, you can expect the resumption of the downward trend in the instrument.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 8. The euro has dried up around 1.15

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair rebounded from the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497 and reversed in favor of the US dollar. As a result, the pair dropped to the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.1422. The end of November 8 quotes from the correction level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth towards the correction level of 61.8%. The ripening divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continuing falling towards the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair continues to grow in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Rebounding the pair's quotations from the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. There are still no divergences on the current chart. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair bounces the correction level of 1.1422.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold with the target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1422.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for November 8. Pound sterling took time out

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair rose to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3157. Reversing the pair's quotes from this level allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall towards the correctional level of 61.8% - 1.3066. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of resuming growth in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.3397.

The Fib net is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and October 30, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed the pair to reverse in favor of the American currency and return to the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.3125. The end of the pair on November 8 from the correction level of 76.4% will allow us to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.3257. Fixing quotations under the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.3044.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from October 12, 2018, and October 30, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.3357 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3125 (hourly chart).

Selling of the GBP / USD currency pair will be possible with a target of 1.3044 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.3125 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The pound looks stronger than the euro

The report on the US labor market in October came out confidently strong, giving additional arguments to the Fed to raise interest rates at least to a neutral level. 250 thousand new jobs were created, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 190 thousand, the level of labor force participation rose to 62.9% against 62.7% a month earlier, the average workweek grew from 34.4 to 34.5 hours, the average hourly wage increased by 0.2 %, which is lower than the growth of 0.3% in September, but in annual terms, the growth was 3.1%.

The latter indicator is especially important because it allows you to predict expectations for inflation. The higher the wage growth, the higher the consumer demand, the higher the prices, the more confident the expectations at the Fed rate. The growth of 3.1% is the maximum for the last 10 years, but it will need confirmation in the coming months, since it is largely due to low rates a year ago. Without confirmation that wages are rising with acceleration, the threat of overheating of the US economy will remain just re-election rhetoric.

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The dollar reacted to the release of growth report, but the movement was rather sluggish, since the overall the results coincided with forecasts, and besides, the attention of the markets was largely focused on the upcoming elections to the US Congress.

For Trump, there is a real risk of losing control of Congress, which can lead to serious turmoil in financial markets. Elections will be held on November 6, 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 25 seats in the Senate are at stake, polls indicate that the Democrats will receive an overweight of at least one vote. Democrats oppose Trump's tax reform and intend to cancel it, in case of their victory, the question of cancellation will be raised in the very near future. Trump has the right to veto any decision of the Congress, if it is adopted by less than two-thirds of the votes, and the Democrats' victory cannot provide them with such an advantage, but in any case, they can create a lot of problems for Trump.

Understanding that part of his decisions was unpopular, Trump partially won back, announced his readiness to hold talks with China, introduced relief for happy countries on Iranian sanctions, removed pressure from Turkey, but these efforts may not be enough to keep control of Congress. If the Democrats get a majority in both chambers, then a strong dollar decline is possible, since the trend to strengthen it was set just by Trump, tax reform and geopolitical decisions. In this case, Trump will lose the opportunity to expand tax reform, which will increase the likelihood of impeachment or at least reduce the likelihood of winning the next presidential election. The CFTC report, published on Friday, showed that the preponderance of the bulls began to decline, speculators are preparing for a possible reversal of the dollar.

Eurozone

For the euro today, important news is not expected, the Sentix group will publish an indicator of investor confidence, which is expected to show a decline after similar research from Ifo and Gfk. The euro looks uncertain, but will trade in the range of 1.1335 - 1.1455 in anticipation of news from the US.

Great Britain

For the pound, the start of the week promises to be quite rich. On Monday, the PMI Markit index on the service sector will be published, the expectations are negative, and Lloyd's business barometer published a little earlier indicates a likely fall.

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On Friday, the first estimate of GDP growth rates in Q3 will be published, it will most likely be weak, which will lead to an increase in pressure on the pound by the end of the week.

As for Brexit, there are no events scheduled this week, however, the likelihood of another EU summit in mid-November is growing. On Sunday, there was news with reference to Theresa May that the agreement is already 95% ready, which is currently the main driver for the pound.

The currency GBP / USD on Monday will try to update the recent high of 1.3035, a general decrease in tension will push the pound up at least until the end of the week.

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What to expect from the EUR/USD pair or why is now not the best time to buy euros?

In the past few days, the single European currency has been in demand by investors, which is apparently explained by the outcome of the midterm elections in the United States, as well as the expectation that in the near future Britain will be able to reach an agreement with the EU on leaving the country from the alliance.

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In particular, the British minister for Brexit, Dominic Raab, announced that the deal could be concluded before November 21. This news allowed traders to resume purchases of euros, pounds, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Meanwhile, the problem of the physical border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland remains unresolved. Last Tuesday, Arlene Foster, leader of the North Irish Democratic Unionist Party, said that there is still no progress on the border issue. Hence, the negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU are one step away from failure, which may be followed by a tough Brexit.

Regarding the results of the mid-term elections in the USA, the equally important Senate remained under the control of the Republicans, despite the prevailing view that the dominance of the Democratic Party in the House of Commons would impede the promotion of legislative initiatives by the head of the White House Donald Trump. Moreover, yesterday the US president announced his readiness to work with Democrats in key areas. Therefore, it is possible that the parties will be able to reach consensus on a number of issues, including in the field of infrastructure and health.

The situation around the budget deficit of Italy is not currently in favor of the single European currency. Given that the deadline for submission by the government of the country to the European Commission on November 13 is the finalized draft budget. If no changes are made to the document, disciplinary measures will be taken against the republic. However, even despite this, it is likely that the draft budget will not be revised.

Another argument against buying the euro is the statistics. According to Eurostat, the economy of 19 countries of the eurozone in the third quarter of 2018 increased by 0.2% in quarterly terms. The indicator showed the minimum rate of recovery from the second quarter of 2014. It leaves much to be desired and business activity. Last month, the eurozone consolidated PMI dropped to 53.1 points from September's level of 54.1.

According to some experts, this is just the beginning. The ECB in such conditions is unlikely to tighten monetary policy, which also will not play into the hands of a strong single European currency. It is assumed that by the end of the year, the EUR / USD pair can sink to the level of 1.10.

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EUR/USD pair: Donald Trump's press conference brought back buyers of the American dollar, RBNZ left rates unchanged

The press conference of Donald Trump brought back the buyers of the American dollar. RBNZ left rates unchanged and lending in the US has grown.

The American dollar regained some of its positions after the press conference of the US president yesterday, which took place against the backdrop of his party's victory in the midterm elections to the Senate. Also supporting the dollar has the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to increase interest rates. The decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates is published today. Most likely, the Central Bank will leave them unchanged but there are economists who believe that the Fed may raise rates already in November of this year. However, such a decision may cause more harm than good, as it will negatively affect the medium-term plans of many market participants, who will have to revise their strategies. Economic indicators with rising inflation do not create such a sharp need to raise rates.

It is also necessary to pay attention to the statements made by the Fed after the publication of the meeting report.

Returning to the topic of yesterday's press conference US President Donald Trump stated that the Republicans got the majority and significantly exceeds his expectations. This suggests that the people love and trust him. Trump also noted that he was very happy, along with the majority of representatives of his cabinet, to select different people for various positions.

As for the Democrats, the US president did not hesitate to express himself. Trump said he wanted to work with the Democrats on infrastructure and medicine issues, and also urged the parties to come together. The American leader also expects much less impasse after the Democrats gained a majority in the House of Representatives. Judging by the statement, now that the Democrats have received a majority, he will blame them for all the failures for which he was so criticized by supporters of the democratic party.

As for international relations, the US president once again rejected Russia's influence in the 2016 presidential election and also said that he was pleased with the progress in the situation with North Korea. Trump intends to meet with Kim Jong-un in early 2019.

As for the fundamental data, a good report on the growth of consumer lending in the United States in September of this year supported the US dollar.

According to the Federal Reserve, the unsecured consumer lending increased by 3.33% equivalent to 10.92 billion US dollars in September 2018 compared with the previous month. Economists had expected lending to grow by $ 14.5 billion.

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Renewable loans for the reporting period decreased by 0.36% compared with the same period of the previous year, while non-revolving loans showed an annual growth of 4.65%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, which did not lead to significant changes in the NZD/USD pair. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said it expects the key rate to remain at 1.75% throughout 2019 and partially in 2020.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of the GBP/USD pair on November 8, 2018

On Wednesday, the price moved up and a strong news is scheduled at 18.00 London time. On Thursday, the price will most likely be on the side channel before the news.

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Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price will move up with the first target of 1.3358 on the upper fractal, but before the news, there is a high probability of working in the side channel.

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price will move up with the first target of 1.3358 on the upper fractal, but before the news, there is a high probability of working in the side channel.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair on November 8, 2018

On Wednesday, the price moved up, reaching a recoil level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line) and after that, it went down quite strongly. Strong news that may affect the market today is scheduled at 18.00 London time. The upper target remains the same at 1.1499 with the recoil level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

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Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, an upward trend is expected with the first target of 1.1446 at 21 average EMA (black thin line), and only when this line is broken, the next target is a rollback level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, an upward trend is expected with the first target of 1.1446 at 21 average EMA (black thin line), and only when this line is broken, the next target is a rollback level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on November 8. US dollar purchases resumed before interest rate decision

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Today, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, which could lead to a further fall in the EUR/USD pair. It is best to consider long positions in euro after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1423 or to rebound from a minimum of 1.1390, where more buyers are concentrated. The main task for the first half of the day will be the breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1452, which will lead to a larger increase in the euro in the area of this week's maximum of 1.1485, where taking profits are recommended.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers need to form a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1452, in case of euro growth in the first half of the day. Also, it requires a consolidation below the important support level of 1.1423, which limits the downward correction. The break of 1.1423 will also lead to a breakdown of the lower boundary of the rising channel, which will open a direct road to the area of minimum 1.1390 and 1.1355, where taking profits are recommended. If the euro rises above resistance of 1.1452 in the first half of the day, sales can return when it rebounds from 1.1485.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved below the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates an unlikely change in market sentiment. The 30-day average today will act as resistance.

Bollinger bands

If the euro rises in the first half of the day, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator located at the area of 1.1452 will act as a resistance, from where you can sell the euro immediately to rebound. Limit the downward correction to the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1405.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

Translation

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the European session on November 8. The pressure on the pound can return at any time

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The demand for the pound is gradually slowing down, which may lead to a large decline after the Fed's decision on interest rates today. You can return to purchases when a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.3105, where the 50-day moving average runs and the lower limit of the ascending channel is also located. In the case of a breakdown of this level, it is best to open long positions in GBP/USD pair to rebound from a minimum near 1.3031. The main goal of the bulls will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3175, which will be extremely difficult to do.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound sales can be considered for a rebound from the weekly high around 1.3175 or after the breakdown and consolidation below 1.3105 support since the first test of this level, buyers will try to form a false breakdown. With which, this will bring some confusion to the market. The main goal of GBP/USD sellers will be the update of major support around 1.3031, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of growth above 1.3175 in the first half of the day, you can sell a pound to rebound from a high of 1.3233.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade returned to the same level from the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates a possible change in market sentiment.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3105 will be a signal to sell a pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 8, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

On October 10, Recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420 where temporary bullish pressure was pushing the EUR/USD pair above 1.1520. Hence, a descending High was established around 1.1600.

However, By the end of last week's consolidations, recent bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.1307 leading to Another bullish breakout above 1.1400.

This enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.1500 where early signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated.

Currently, as for the bearish side of the market to regain dominance, the EUR/USD pair should continue trading below the price level of 1.1400.

Initial bearish targets are located around 1.1275 and 1.1100 if sufficient bearish pressure is demonstrated.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 8, 2018

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Since September 13, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout above the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700. BUY entries were suggested around the lower limit of the depicted H4 channel (1.2700). Suggested BUY entries are running in profits now.

As for the bullish DAILY breakout scenario to remain valid, quick bullish breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) was achieved by the end of last week's consolidations.

Bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2970-1.3000 (50% Fibonacci zone) allows more bullish advancement towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend comes to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Earlier Today, early signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around the price zone of 1.3170-1.3200 (the depicted downtrend). This initiated the current bearish pullback. Expected bearish target is located around 1.3025.

On the other hand, currently, the price zone of (1.2980-1.3025) now constitutes a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish positions if any bearish pullback occurs soon.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for bearish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2980-1.3025 for a low-risk BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3130 and 1.3200. S/L should be set as daily candlestick closure below 1.2950.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 08, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 08, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1413. According to the H4 time – frame, I have found the breakout of the upward trendline and the potential end of the upward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found the rejection from the supply trendline in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1300.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 08, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7195. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.7195 to a top around 0.7302. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7359 followed by 0.7413, while major support is seen at 0.7195 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7245 and 0.7413; so we expect a range of 168 pips in coming hours.

Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7302, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7302) to test it.

Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7302 with the first target at 0.7359 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7413. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7413 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top on the H1 chart. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7245, a further decline to 0.7195 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 08, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3120, which is a sign of indecision. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found the potential changing in the trend from bullish to bearish. I found the breakout of the 8-day upward trendline, head and shoulders pattern in the background and the hidden bearish on the MACD oscillator, which is a sign that seller are taking control from buyers. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward take profit levels are set at the price of 1.3040 and at the price of 1.3000.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 08, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that BTC reached my yesterday's target at the price of $6.400. Anyway, I found the 7-hour balance between the price of $6.427 (resistance) and the price of $6.400 (support), which is a sign of indecision. I also found that the level of $6.400 is also a potential end of the downward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities if you see a breakout of the $6.427 (resistance). The upward target will be set at the price of $6.506. Anway, if you see a breakout of the support at ($6.400), this will open the room for the level of $6.335.

Support/Resistance

$6.427 – Intraday resistance

$6.400– Intraday support

$6.506 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Trading Plan for 11/08/2018

To be honest, the dollar should continue to lose its position, as the volume of consumer lending in the United States fell from $ 22.9 billion to $ 10.9 billion. Moreover, although European statistics showed a decline in a number of indicators, the data turned out to be better than expected. In particular, the growth rate of retail sales in Europe slowed down from 2.2% to 0.8%, and market participants were already morally ready to decline to 0.7%. Halifax also provided a report on housing prices in the UK, from which it follows that the growth rate of prices slowed down from 2.5% to 1.5% while it was expected to decline to 1.2%. Of course, the results are not the best, but against the background of a sharp decline in lending in the United States, as well as given that they turned out to be better than expected, it was worth waiting for a weaker dollar. This happens basically on most days.However, the dollar began to return lost positions. The reason behind this is the preliminary summing up of elections in the United States, which turned out to be not so terrible, if you look at it from the point of view of Donald Trump and the predictability of the actions of the American authorities. Of course, Republicans lost control of Congress, and for the first time in eight years, Democrats control most of the seats in the House of Representatives. However, the Republicans even strengthened their position in the Senate, which will act as a counterbalance to the dominance of Democrats in Congress. At the moment, not all votes have been counted, but the situation will barely change. Naturally, the Democrats will regularly spoil the life of Donald Trump and may try to initiate his impeachment, which will require the US President to make concessions, especially in foreign policy matters. And, most likely, the result will be the radicalization of the policy of the United States in the foreign arena. However, the election results show that there will be no dramatic and drastic changes in the actions of the United States. This is what gave investors optimism.

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Today, investors are not in the position to count the votes in the United States of America, since all their attention will be focused on the results of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. In principle, it is clear to everyone that nobody will touch the refinancing rate, as it is scheduled in December. However, the intrigue already lies in the increasing rate of the refinancing rate next year. Fed officials have repeatedly stated that the decline in inflation is not yet a reason for revising the regulator's plans, as it is not yet possible to say that this is a long-term and sustainable one. But, if there will be at least hints on the possibility of revising the increasing rate in the refinancing rate, this will lead to an instant decrease in the interest in the dollar. There will be an increase in the published data on applications for unemployment benefits, which can show an increase in the number of repeated applications by 4 thousand and an invariance of the number of initial applications. On the contrary, few people are interested against the background of Fed meeting.

The euro / dollar currency pair, after reaching the range of 1.1500, felt resistance, returning the quotation to the level of 1.1440. It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation of 1.1420/ 1.1455, analyzing fixation points outside the boundaries.

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The currency pair pound/dollar continued its upward movement, reaching the level of 1.3173, where it felt a periodic ceiling above itself, temporarily going into a pullback. In case of price fixing higher than 1.3180, we will throw up 1.3220 / 1.3250. Otherwise, we are already in the overbought phase, where a deeper stagnation with correction is possible.

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Forecast for USD / JPY for November 8, 2018

USD / JPY

For the Japanese yen, the situation is quite favorable. Since the stock markets are growing strongly, there are no political upheavals in the world. However, Japan's own economic indicators fail. Yesterday, the index of leading economic indicators for September showed a decline from 104.5% to 103.9%. The average wages for the same month showed less than expected growth (1.1% y / y versus 1.2% y / y). And And Japan's current account balance in the September estimate dropped from 1.43 trillion yen to 1.33 trillion yen.

Also, the volume of domestic basic orders for machine-building products in September showed -18.3% against expectations of -9.5% and the volume of bank lending reduced the volume from 2.3% y / y to 2.2% y / y. The forecast assumed growth up to 2.4% g / g but the data does not seem to slow down the growth of the yen. We are waiting for the price at the price channel line at 114.90 with the overcoming of resistance before the price opens higher goals (116.70).

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Trading plan for 08/11/2018

On Wall Street a definite continuation of the rebound, under which the contract for the SP500 recovered 2800 points. The price of oil remains in the vicinity of months-long mines established yesterday and lying around 20 percent. below the long-term peaks of early October.

The dollar in the second part of yesterday's session made up for the morning losses and at night it entered the consolidation phase. EUR / USD is at 1.1435 and yesterday's maxima are 1.15. USD / JPY from around 113.00 rebounded to 113.80, or Intraday high from Wednesday's Asian session.

Indexes on Wall Street have increased over 2% and Nasdaq over 3%. The contract for the SP500 was approaching 2820 points and the summit of mid-October. Asia is also green, but the scale of increases is in most cases much more modest, by almost 2%. Nikkei225 is growing but, for example, the Chinese indices are close to the bar.

After yesterday's data on oil inventories (the seventh consecutive increase, by a total of over 35 million barrels, accompanied by the highest extraction in history - 11.6 million b / d), WTI oil fell to USD 61 and the market was not able to return over 62 USD on the Asian session. An ounce of gold is valued at 1225 USD. Among the soft commodities, medium-term maxima of the cocoa price should be recorded in the area of USD 2,400 per ton and strong, around 2% rise in the coffee price.

On Thursday, the 8th of November, the event calendar is light in important data releases. The event of the day is the FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement, but before that, the global investors should keep an eye on German and French Trade Balance data, Canadian New Housing Price Index data and Unemployment Claims data from the US. There are two speeches scheduled for today from the member of the Executive Board of the ECB Benoit Coeure and SNB Member of the Governing Board Andrea Maechler.

EUR/USD analysis for 08/11/2018:

Today's German and French Trade Balance data might be interesting data release. The difference between the value of exports and imports in Germany. Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Germany 's Balance of Payment. As Germany is Europe's largest economy and given Germany's export-oriented economy, trade data can give critical insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market reversed after reaching the level of 1.1500 and now is trading below the resistance zone of 1.1442 - 1.1432 again. Please notice, the price is still trading inside of the channel, but if the market will not be supported around the level of 1.1400, it might fall out of the channel and continue the sell-off towards the level of 1.1360 or below.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Nov 08, 2018

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When the European market opens, a batch of economic data will be released such as French 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, EU Economic Forecasts, ECB Economic Bulletin, French Trade Balance, and German Trade Balance. The US is due to release several economic reports such as Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Natural Gas Storage, and Unemployment Claims. So, amid such a loaded economic calendar EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1491

Strong Resistance:1.1484

Original Resistance: 1.1473

Inner Sell Area: 1.1462

Target Inner Area: 1.1434

Inner Buy Area: 1.1406

Original Support: 1.1395

Strong Support: 1.1384

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1377

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Nov 08, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Current Account, Core Machinery Orders m/m, Bank Lending y/y, and BOJ Summary of Opinions. The US will release some economic data as well such as Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Natural Gas Storage, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 114.18

Resistance 2: 113.95

Resistance 1: 113.74

Support 1: 113.46

Support 2: 113.23

Support 3: 113.01

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 7, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impressive with recent bullish gains as expected which lead the price to jump briefly above $6,500 today. Though the price has pushed lower with certain impulsiveness recently, it is being held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA and Kijun line as support. The price is likely to climb higher above $6,500, aiming to surge much higher towards $7,500 and later towards $8,000 area. As per macro analysis, Bitcoin had been at exactly the same price zone last year in the same month before it started to gain impulsive momentum which nudged the price towards $19,000+ area within a month. So, the price is currently residing at exactly the same price zone which evolved into the bullish bias. BTC is expected to push higher as the bullish bias remains constant as the price remains above $6,000 area with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 6,000, 6,400

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 7,000, 7,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis for EURUSD for November 8, 2018

EUR/USD has reached our lower range of the target area of 1.15-1.16 and pulled back strongly. Price is now trading in the area of previous resistance that is now support. EUR/USD has the potential to move higher as long as price does not break below 1.1375.

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Light blue dots - medium strength support

Dark blue dots - maximum strength support

EUR/USD is making higher highs and higher lows. This is a good sign for the short-term trend. However as price tried to break out of the bearish channel, price got rejected and pulled back towards the support area of 1.1430 which was previously resistance. Next important support for the short-term bullish trend is at 1.1375. Breaking below it will be a bearish sign. Resistance is at 1.1460-1.1470. Breaking above this level will open the way for a higher high above 1.15.

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Technical analysis for Gold for November 8, 2018

Gold price challenged the recent highs once again yesterday but got rejected once again. Price pulled back towards its recent lows and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support. Price holds above short-term support. No clear trend in the short-term yet. Price moves sideways between $1,236-$1,220.

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Magenta rectangle - major support

Blue rectangle- short-term support

Red rectangle - short-term resistance

Gold price has been moving the last two days between the two short-term important levels. As long as we trade above $1,212 I remain optimistic. Breaking above $1,240 is what Gold bulls need to see in order to see a rally towards $1,260 and higher. The resistance at $1,235-40 is confirmed several times. Bulls do not want to move far from it and specially not break below $1,212. Bears on the other hand want to see price break to new lows and confirm the rejection at $1,240 on a weekly basis. This will be a bearish sign and would target Gold towards $1,100 or lower.

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Global macro overview for 08/11/2018

The decision of the New Zealand Reserve Bank on interest rates was published overnight. As expected, they remained at 1.75%. The president of the RBNZ said that he did not rule out the further loosening of monetary policy. It all depends on the emerging macroeconomic data, especially the reading on GDP growth. Orr believes that strengthening inflationary pressure is a big challenge for the central bank.

The RBNZ is happy that the unemployment rate is falling. Recall, Tuesday's reading was 3.9% with expectations at 4.4%. Orr has no price target for the New Zealand dollar, but in general, the currency is doing well. Real estate prices can gradually increase. The central bank will maintain a loose monetary policy for as long as necessary.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After yesterday's strong growth tonight NZDUSD was rather calm. In the morning there was a slight strengthening and finding new highs around 0.6795. Stronger hesitation occurred in the vicinity of the publication of the RBNZ decision, then the price for a moment climbed to 0.6815, but then there was a decline towards the level of 0.6767. Nevertheless, the market is still consolidating the recent gains as it is trading inside of the horizontal zone between the levels of 0.6018 - 0.6767 in overbought market conditions.

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Global macro overview for 08/11/2018

Today's session was dominated 100% by politics, specifically the results of the American half elections (so-called midterms), in which new members of the Congress were elected, as well as 1/3 of the Senate. We dealt with a scenario that has recently been rare in politics, i.e. with the exact implementation of scenarios that media and polls suggested before the elections. The "blue wave", which was supposed to bring the triumphant victory to the Democrats, turned out to be much smaller than they would like to believe, but it was enough to get 220 votes (vs. 193 Republican votes) in the new term of office according to the most up-to-date estimates. President Trump, in his own way, assessed that he was a huge success (indeed his party maintained key seats in the Senate), but the facts are that the analogous division of votes in the presidential election would make the Democrat sit down in the White House in the next term. Still, comparing the current polls with the history of the half elections in recent years, it is difficult to see this clash differently than a tie.

The market reaction is very ambiguous. USD loses about -0.4% against the basket of currencies, the EURUSD rate is around 1.1470. This is in line with the consequences of the elections that we think most likely, i.e. a significant reduction in the chances of further tax cuts. In practice, this means potentially lower inflation and economic growth. At the same time, however, it seems that the stock exchanges have received the data with relief, which is a bit surprising, because it is not known what the distribution scenario would be worse - double Democrat win seemed almost unbelievable, Republicans were much more likely to preserve the status quo in Congress.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame after the results are now official. The SPX rallied higher towards the technical resistance at the level of 281.09 and the price is currently hovering around this level. The gap up was made before this move and now is located between the levels of 275.27 - 277.07. The next target for bull is seen at the level of 285.40. The momentum remains strong, but the market conditions are now overbought, so some sort of a corrective pull-back might occur any time now.

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