The British Parliament will be able to approve a Brexit deal if the plan for the Irish border is temporary

British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said that Parliament would agree to an agreement with the European Union under the terms of Brexit if the "safety" plan for the Irish border is temporary. As is known, the exit of Britain from the EU is scheduled for March 29, 2019.

At the same time, a "safety" plan for the border with Ireland can be implemented from January 2021, if the UK and the EU fail to resolve the issue of a "hard" border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. According to this plan, both the European Union and Britain will be located in a single customs territory, and it will be possible to refuse such conditions only by mutual consent of the parties.

British politicians opposed such an "insurance" plan since it implies the need for inspections at the border of Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain.

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The dollar took stock on the fly

The ending of 2018 is marked by increased investor attention on stock indices. The collapse of the S & P 500 with subsequent attempts by the US administration to stabilize the situation did not leave indifferent participants in the FOREX market. Asylum assets in the face of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc were especially popular. On the contrary, the US dollar lost ground. However, the "bulls" of one opponent's weakness will not be enough to continue the EUR / USD rally. We need our own trumps but you do not find them in the afternoon with fire.

The thin holiday market may turn into a loss of 9% or more for the US stock indices for the month, which, for example, for the S&P 500 will be the worst dynamic since the crisis. After all, it was precisely the high demand for papers issued in the United States that became the catalyst for the rally of the USD index in April-November. Compared with the global MSCI, "Americans" looked better for most of the year, which stimulated a flow of capital to the United States and contributed to the strengthening of the dollar. December sales led to a drop in liquidity below critical levels and forced US Secretary of Finance Steve Mnuchin to intervene.

Dynamics of liquidity and stock indices

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And yet, there is logic in the words of Donald Trump, who asserts that a strong stock market indicates a strong economy. It is precisely because of the advancing dynamics of the S & P 500 over the global MSCI for most of the year the US dollar has been growing. Will it be strengthened in 2019? The answer depends on which they want to lose speed faster, the US GDP or the global economy? The fading of fiscal stimulus, political dysfunction, threats to the independence of the Fed and the disabling of the US government increase the likelihood of a first scenario. But who knows what protectionism and import duties will turn for the eurozone, China and other countries.

Under current conditions, it is best to rely on US macroeconomic statistics. And it's not just the Fed's intention to make decisions based on incoming data. The point is the speed at which the American economy switches from fifth gear. If on the fourth, the dollar will continue to feel like a king. On the third or on the second, they will get rid of it as if they were tired toys. It should be considered that the economic calendar may be amended at any time due to temporary downtime of the executive. In this regard, important releases, including on the labor market in December, may come out somewhat later than is currently expected.

The growth of EUR / USD is associated not only with the closure of long positions on the US dollar. There are rumors in the market that at the slightest positive, the ECB will begin to normalize monetary policy. If a crisis happened in the Old World, he would not have enough firepower to resist.

Technically, the implementation of the combination of the "Three Indians" and "Splash and Regiment" patterns reinforces the risks of continuing the EUR / USD rally towards the target by 88.6% based on the Shark model.

EUR / USD daily chart

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EUR / USD: the next resistance level is 1.1515

The pre-New Year period in the foreign exchange market is characterized by two opposite states either a phlegmatic flat or abnormal volatility. The euro-dollar traders did not go into hibernation and show quite vigorous activity this year. This contributes to the colorful fundamental background, primarily regarding the prospects for the US currency. The dollar index fell from 97.4 points to the current 95.9 for the three weeks of December, reflecting the decline in demand for greenbacks. The yield on 10-year-old treasuries also consolidated below the 3% mark, putting additional pressure on the currency.

The main reasons for the weakening of the dollar can be divided into two components: firstly, this is the position of the Fed, and secondly - the current events of a macroeconomic and political nature. In my opinion, the starting point for a decline in the dollar was the December meeting of the Federal Reserve, where the regulator announced a slowdown in the tightening of monetary policy. Traders have always treated with some doubt the point forecast of the Fed, which, as a rule, reflects the most optimistic scenario. Therefore, when the regulator reduced the approximate number of raises to two, then there immediately appeared on the market that the market should be prepared for only one rate increase in 2019. Some experts voiced a more pessimistic option in which the Fed will take a wait and see position throughout the next year.

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Under conditions of such uncertainty, the role of key macroeconomic indicators is growing. Let me remind you that the American regulator lowered its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation, while Jerome Powell added that next year the statistics will be "not so favorable" to the Fed's forecasts, as it was, for example, this year. Therefore, the consumer confidence index published yesterday seriously knocked down the position of the US currency. The release was much worse than expected: for the first time in five months, the indicator dropped below the 130th mark.

The decline in consumer activity is fraught with a slowdown in inflation - and after all, the consumer price index showed weak growth in November. In addition, the index of personal consumption expenditures which is one of the main indicators, which is closely monitored by the Fed also disappointed traders. On a monthly basis, the indicator remained at 0.1%, although experts predicted a minimal increase to 0.2%. Similarly, other indicators in the same way do not make happy dollar bulls as the level of wages is marking time. Nonfarm dropped to 155 thousand and the GDP indicator was revised downwards to 3.4%.

All this suggests that investors' concerns about the lingering pause are very reasonable and although these are only independent speculations of traders, these factors have a strong pressure on the US currency. The political crisis in the US plays only a background role, which incidentally, also complements the overall negative picture. Yesterday, the US Senate did not consider the budget, thereby extending the "shutdown" until January 2 of next year when the legislators will meet in a new composition. Trump is upholding his election promise to build a wall on the border with Mexico and the congressmen, in turn, refuse to allocate a fabulous amount of five billion dollars for this.

The situation is clearly at an impasse and without any compromise solutions. According to the Democrats, they are ready to allocate only 1.3 billion to "other measures to ensure border security," while Trump said he would not sign such a budget. On his Twitter account, he said that the shutter will last "as long as it takes," hinting at further confrontation. The political split is aggravated by the fact that the Democrats in January will gain control over the House of Representatives while the Republicans will take several additional seats in the Senate.

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In other words, the hazy outlook for the monetary policy of the Fed and political uncertainty put pressure on the dollar, pushing the EUR/USD pair to the borders of the 15th figure. The European currency does not yet have its own arguments for growth, therefore, the northern price dynamics are due only to American events. However, the European calendar is not completely empty. A preliminary assessment of data on inflation growth in Germany will be published today. The dynamics of German inflation can have a significant impact on the euro, especially since experts predict the contradictory dynamics of this indicator. After a two-month decline on a monthly basis, the consumer price index should rise to 0.3% while it is expected to decline to 1.9% in annual terms. If these indicators come out in the "green" zone, the pair will receive a reason for further growth.

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In technical aspect, the pair broke the first resistance level of 1.1440 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart) and headed for the next barrier that corresponds to the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe (1.1515 mark). If the price consolidates above this level, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will generate a bullish Parade of Lines signal, which will open the way to the area of the 16th figure. Today, these are all prerequisites for the implementation of this scenario.

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Investors are hiding in safe assets for the United States and China

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The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc continued to strengthen their positions against the US dollar, as investors decided to move to safe assets after the publication of the weaker-than-expected macroeconomic statistics of the United States and China, as well as the resumption of trade disputes between countries.

Reuters News Agency on Thursday reported that the administration of US President D. Trump is considering the possibility of declaring an emergency in 2019 in order to prohibit US companies from using Chinese Huawei Technologies and ZTE products.

In addition, the date of the end of the 90-day truce in the trade war is approaching, and countries still cannot reach a mutually beneficial agreement, which further increases market anxiety.

Against this background, the Japanese yen against the US dollar is trading at three-month lows, at around 100.50.

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GBP / USD. December 28th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Complete calm

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -29.1618

The GBP / USD currency pair continues lateral movement near the moving average line. Instrument volatility cannot be said to be low, but the absence of a trend can be seen with the naked eye. While there are no news and important reports on the subject of Brexit, there are no markets that continue to discuss with might and main, what will be the final decision of the British Parliament on Brexit? Since there is no new information on this issue, the chances of adopting or rejecting Theresa May's bill remain, in our opinion, 50/50. Theresa May, as is becoming clear now, relied on the hopelessness of the situation. That is, either the parliament supports its exit plan from the EU, or there will be no deal with the EU at all. However, it seems that the parliament is ready to leave the bloc without any agreements. The prime minister of Great Britain still has time to try to win over as many politicians as possible by agreeing to them. At the same time, given the 2 votes of no confidence in May, it's not a fact that she will manage to do this. In general, intrigue will persist until the last minute of this saga. A pound sterling can only wait for the "sentence". When it becomes known, traders will return to active trading in the GBP / USD currency pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2634

S2 - 1.2604

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2665

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2726

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD has fixed below the MA, therefore at the moment the minimal lots with targets at 1.2604 and 1.2573 are relevant. Opening any positions is now associated with increased risks, so before the end of the holidays, you can not enter the market.

Buy positions can be opened no earlier than price fixing above the moving average line. In this case, the long positions will become relevant also in small lots with targets 1.2695 and 1.2726. However, now on a pair of frank flat, that should be considered.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. December 28th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pair again crept up to the level of 1.1470

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 110.3296

The EUR / USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Friday, December 28, and again came close to Murray's level of "8/8" - 1.1470, around which a downward reversal could occur. On the last trading day of the week, the calendar of macroeconomic events is still empty. No important information is expected from either Europe or the States. And not surprisingly, the parliamentarians have long been on vacation. It is rather surprising to see the euro currency strengthening in today's trading, but the market, as we have said, is "sensitive". This means that not only any more or less significant news can have a strong influence on the movement of the pair, but also the actions of a major player can lead to an avalanche effect. About 1.1470, without any understatement, the further fate of the euro in the coming days and even weeks will be decided. If the attempt to overcome this level (already the third) fails, the downward slope of the instrument will continue, and the pair may soon again fall to the area of 1.1300. Of course, it will not hurt any fundamental information, which is simply not available on New Year's Eve. In general, the pair continues to be in the "wide" flat, so Heikin Ashi continues to signal frequent changes in direction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1444

S2 - 1,1414

S3 - 1.1383

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1.1505

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to change the direction of movement. At the moment, long-term positions are again relevant with targets 1.1475 and 1.1505. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator down will indicate a round of local correction.

Orders for sale can be opened in small lots with the goal of 1.1353 if the pair manages to re-consolidate below the moving average. However, in conditions of "wide flat", the pair often changes the direction of movement, which does not mean a change of trend.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 28. The pair threatens to complicate the rising wave c

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Wave counting analysis:

Trading on Thursday, December 27, ended for the EUR / USD currency pair by 80 basis points growth. Thus, if wave c is really completed, then the pair proceeded to build the proposed wave d or a completely new downward trend. Anyway, below the maximum of the wave c remains a good chance of reducing the instrument with targets located near the Fibonacci level of 0.0%. The breakthrough of the maximum of the wave c can lead to the complication of the internal wave structure of this wave and further growth.

Objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

Objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1471 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair allegedly completed the construction of a wave c. Thus, now I recommend cautious sales of the pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1215, which equates to 0.0% Fibonacci. The wave c can complicate the internal structure, however now it is still early to assume exactly this option. Purchases, therefore, I will recommend (also in small volumes) if a break of the maximum of the wave c will be performed.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 28. The pound sterling is ready to fall, there is not enough relevant news background

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Wave counting analysis:

On December 27, the GBP / USD currency pair gained around 15 basis points during the day. Thus, the estimated wave c, 2, b, is still considered complete. If this is true, the decline in quotations will continue with the first targets located near the level of 0.0%. A break of 38.2% on the lower Fibonacci grid will indicate a pair's readiness to increase and complicate wave 2 or b. The news background is now "zero", which affects trading activity.

Objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2742 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.2825 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

Objectives for the option with sales:

1.2475 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

1.2229 - 323.6% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair supposedly completed the construction of a 3-wave structure. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the mark of 1.2742 indicates the pair's willingness to decline, and I recommend selling the pair with targets located about 25 figures below. Now, there is no news, which affects the activity of the tool and slightly complicates the wave pattern.

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EUR / GBP. The pound remains under pressure: Labor did not support a repeated referendum

The deputies of the British parliament went on a winter break, but political battles about the prospects for Brexit continue to shake the market. The pound is still under the background pressure of this issue, while the European currency in recent days feels more confident.

The weekly chart of the euro/pound cross-pair indicates that the price is in the ascending channel during the last month. If at the end of November the pair was trading in the area of the 88th figure, at the moment it is gradually approaching the border of 0.91. Relatively deep correctional pullbacks allow traders to open long positions at a more favorable price, although the growth dynamics of EUR / GBP leaves much to be desired. However, in the context of medium-term trade, this tactic is very attractive, given the continuing uncertainty around the prospects of the "divorce process".kbxfav46txXy4ag_bNxI8x2uZLxah9SNqJF7bkvVLet me remind you that Theresa May postponed the vote on the draft transaction because of the potential lack of votes in favor. Later, the prime minister appointed a new voting date, January 14, but the number of supporters of this agreement did not increase. Moreover, after Brussels refused to provide any guarantees about the timing of the backstop, many parliamentarians were convinced of the correctness of their position. According to political analysts, the balance of power in the British parliament after May's European voyage did not change. But the prime minister needs to convince not only his party members to support her draft deal, but also ten more deputies, since the conservatives have lost a parliamentary majority on the results of the last election. The task is unbearable because the main parliamentary forces of Britain (in addition to some of the conservatives), Labor, Unionists, and representatives of the Scottish National Party, opposed the deal.

The remaining political parties (the Liberal Democrats, the Irish Sinn Fein Party, the Wales Party, and the Greens) are unable to drastically influence the situation because of their small number in parliament. Only representatives of the Liberal Democratic Party are able to "replace" the temporary allies of the Conservatives - Unionists but they strongly oppose the proposed deal. Moreover, not so long ago, the Liberal Democrats declared that they were ready to support a vote of no confidence in the prime minister if their colleagues from the "big opposition" put this question to the vote. Therefore, there can be no talk of any possible support from them.

Thus, traders are anxiously awaiting the January events. In the autumn, there was still hope that May would play the trump card of his position, the essence of which boils down to the absence of any alternative. Many experts expected that the deputies at the last moment would falter and vote for a "bad" deal since on the other side of the scale there would be chaotic Brexit with disastrous consequences. Alas, these expectations were not justified: on the eve of the voting day, May was convinced that the parliament was ready to go for a harsh scenario. Even the results of the consideration of the vote of no confidence in the prime minister did not inspire her supporters, 117 conservatives voted in favor. Catastrophic much in the context of the upcoming voting in January.

It is for this reason that the option of a repeated referendum has been discussed in the information space over the past weeks. According to the results of a poll conducted by YouGov, 47% of respondents do not approve of leaving the EU, while 41% positively reacted to this idea (the rest were undecided). When sociologists put an "edge question", that is, in the context of a possible new referendum, the numbers turned out to be more categorical: 45% of Britons would vote to continue EU membership, while 30% of respondents were in favor of withdrawal. And such an advantage has been observed for several months already, which allows us to put an "equal" sign between the idea of a repeated referendum and the preservation of Britain within the European Union. By the way, the European Court of Justice in early December ruled that the United Kingdom could cancel Brexit unilaterally, without the consent of other European states. This decision allows to legally implement the results of the repeated referendum if the British really say "no" to the country's withdrawal from the EU.

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Most experts linked the possible scenario of a new referendum with the Labor Party, but just a week ago, the leader of the British opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, denied such thoughts. He said that the Labor Party will continue the course of leaving Britain from the Alliance. "We will try to change the terms of the deal if we win the early elections next year," Corbyn said. According to the British press, there is also a split among the Laborites, many are in favor of another vote, but most do not support this idea. This position has disappointed supporters of the re-referendum since now they have to lobby for this idea either outside the parliament or with the help of the so-called "small opposition".

Thus, after an unexpected statement by the Laborites, the probability of a new referendum has noticeably decreased. But the chances of the chaotic Brexit are growing every day. Only three months are left until March 29, and "it's still there". The prime minister has no support either inside parliament or from European colleagues.

All this suggests that the cross-pair EUR / GBP has the potential for its further growth. The closest target of the northern movement is the mark of 0.91, this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly and monthly charts. The support level is the price of 0.8960, the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the W1.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of #USDX (US Dollar Index) for December 28

Large-scale graphics:

Quotes of the US dollar since February are moving to the "north" of the chart. Analysis of the wave structure shows the formation from the end of September of the final part of the wave (C).

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Medium scale graphics:

From November 12, the index quotes form a downward wave. As part of a larger model, it will take the place of the middle part (B).

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Small-scale graphics:

The wave is descending, starts on December 14th. It completes the structure of a larger downward plane.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming weeks, the decline phase will be fully completed. The subsequent rise in the dollar will mean a new round of lowering the rates of major national currencies in major pairs.

Resistance zones:

- 97.50 / 97.70

Support areas:

- 96.00 / 95.80

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 12/28/2018

The big picture: The year ends.

All news happenings after the New Year.

Only a short day remains in the month and year before December 31 on Monday.

The market is trying to start a move against the dollar.

In case of a breakout of the EUR/USD rate above 1.1485 and closing of the day above this level, a triple bottom figure is expected with a minimum target of 1.1750.

Buying from 1.1485.

Happy New Year!

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 28, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped between the price levels of 1.1420 and 1.1270 waiting for breakout since November 5.

Today, another attempt of bullish breakout above 1.1420 is being executed. This enhances the bullish side of the market. Bullish persistence above 1.1420 enables further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 and 1.1580 as initial targets.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 28/12/2018

Discussions about the roadmap over the agreement between the US and China are underway and President Trump called them "very productive". What's more, later Trump even announced interventions on the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, head of finance Huawei, a Chinese giant in the production of smartphones.

Trump told the agency that phone calls are being held with Beijing and he will not raise tariffs until he is sure about the chances of a deal. What's more, China is considering cutting tariffs on US cars from 40 to 15 percent. Nevertheless, later that day, US parliamentarians proposed a law that would prohibit the sale of American products to Chinese companies that violate the export ban or sanctions imposed. The global investors remain somewhat confused after these situations, but the general mood is slowly improving.

Let's now take a look at the Gold technical picture at the daily time frame. The market is still going up and the price has almost hit the 61% Fibo retracement at the level of $1,286. The local high was made at the level of $1,281, so it is very close to this level. It is worth keeping an eye on the 61% Fibo to see how the market will react on this level as the momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions are now extremely overbought. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $1,261.

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Global macro overview for 28/12/2018

Overnight, the Summary of the Opinions of the last Bank of Japan meeting was published. This report includes the BOJ's projection for inflation and economic growth. It's the primary tool the BOJ uses to imform investors about their economic and monetary projections.

According to the central bank's management, the risk of the global economic slowdown is growing. Recent data indicate a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which will also have a negative impact on Japan. Inflation is still on the upside, but the impact of cheap oil can slow its growth. The future price growth forecast is uncertain, for now, it is unsatisfactory. One should carefully assess the benefits and costs of running the current monetary policy. The Bank of Japan must be sure that it supports the economy without putting it off balance.

The early normalization of monetary policy may lead to lateral effects and to eradicate the progress made so far. This is why the central bank must tolerate the policy of long-term interest rates below zero.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame chart. The market did not manage to break through the short-term trend line (dashed black) around the level of 111.00 and reversed towards the technical support at the level of 110.37. If this level is violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of 110.15 and even at the swing low at the level of 110.02. The momentum remains below its 50 level, supporting the short-term bearish outlook for this pair.

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Trading plan for 28/12/2018

EUR/USD returned to 1.1450, USD/JPY falls below 110.50, but GBP/USD is passively hanging close to 1.2650. Positive recovery is recorded by AUD, NZD, and CAD.

However, Asia is not quite bold to pull the move and Japanese Nikkei225 fell 0.31 percent. Chinese Shanghai Composite grows 0.3 percent.

On Friday, December 28, the event calendar is light with important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on German CPI and Import Prices data, KOF Economic Barometer data from Switzerland, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index data, Wholesale Inventories, and Good Trade Balance data from the US.

SPX analysis for 28/12/2018:

The stock market in the US made a rally in the last hour of trading, which allowed positive close at +0.86%. In two days, the index gained 5.9 percent, which is the best result since August 2015. Dow Jones gained 800 points in less than an hour. It might go even higher after the US data will be published, as well as the most important Chicago Purchasing Managers IndexChicago PMI, a monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Released on the last business day of the reporting month, the report's significance has recently declined as it precedes the more anticipated ISM report. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release.

Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion with a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would indicate contraction.

Let's now take a look at the SPX technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the 23% Fibo level and closed at the level of 247.96. The next target for bulls is the technical resistance at the level of 249.71, which is just below the 38% Fibo at 251.55. The market conditions are still oversold, but the momentum indicator is pointing to the north, supporting the short-term bullish outlook.

analytics5c25e1f7d266b.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for December 28th. The euro is growing, there are no obstacles

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair, after rebounding from the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358, performed a U-turn in favor of the EU currency and an increase to the Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.1446 with a consolidation above it. As a result, on December 28, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.1515. There are no emerging divergences today. Fixing quotations under the Fibo level of 38.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American currency and it is expected to fall in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair attempted to return to the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285 but failed. As a result, the growth process was resumed in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There is no single indicator of ripening divergences on the current chart. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1515 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 38.2% since the pair completed the closure above the level of 1.1446.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.1358 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1446 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for December 28th. The pair continues to trade sideways.

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart continues to trade within the sideways range indicated by the blue rectangle. Bullish divergence did not allow the pair to complete strong growth. Thus, on December 28, the pair can rise to the upper side range. Closing the pair over this range will increase the likelihood of continued growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812. Rebound from it will work in favor of the US currency and return to the lower region of the range.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, after the formation of the second bullish divergence at the MACD indicator, the quotes of the pair nevertheless performed a reversal in favor of the British currency. As a result, the process of growth began in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696. Rebounding the Fibo level of 100.0% quotes will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2566. Closing quotes above Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.2809.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with the target of 1.2696 and the Stop Loss order under the bullish divergence low since a new bullish divergence has formed (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2566 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off of the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Market volatility will continue at the beginning of the new 2019

Today is actually the last full-fledged working day before the New Year holidays. Usually, the activity of bidders at the end of December drops noticeably in anticipation of the New Year holidays, but not this year, where the month of December was characterized by very high volatility in world markets and first of all in the stock market.

This behavior of the market as a whole is unusual, although the overall volatility is growing, still remains within reasonable limits. But this year, against the background of continuing uncertainty about the prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict, clear signals of a slowdown in global economic growth and political instability in Europe and the United States, extremely high volatility is observed.

The foreign exchange market, in contrast to the stock markets, is characterized by low volatility, while the commodity markets and equity markets, on the contrary, are characterized by extremely high volatility, which is based on the nervousness of investors concerned about the prospects for further growth of the world economy.

After the collapse of the US stock market this month in the last two days, he has noted an attempt to grow on the hopes of many investors that this decline is a correction and that it has probably ended. But, if you look more closely at the market volumes, they are still not as impressive and noticeably lower than those that were observed during the sale of shares of companies. It seems that a much smaller part of the market players took advantage of the low activity of its most part because of the Christmas and New Year holidays and decided to trade in opposition to the general market expectations.

Despite the second day of active growth in global stock markets, it is still early to speak about a real turning point in trends. Yes, the market, as before, hopes in autumn that once again in January, Beijing and Washington will manage to agree on the rules of mutual trade, and many probably also hope that the American economy will maintain an acceptable growth rate. But, unfortunately, the factors that really weaken these hopes have not disappeared anywhere. And this: the promise of the Fed to further raise interest rates, the continued reduction of the balance by the US regulator, which every month more and more reduces the amount of dollar liquidity in the financial system, the presence of clear signals about the slowdown of the global economy as a whole and the three leaders in particular and we mean the United States, China, and the eurozone.

Evaluating all the existing factors, we still believe that the probability of continuing falling of the stock market to a greater extent still prevails, and at the same time, there will be a demand for defensive assets, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the US dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The USD / JPY currency pair is trading below 110.85. We still expect the pair to decline to 109.60.

The USD / CAD currency pair is above the level of 1.3600. If crude oil prices remain under pressure, the pair may continue to move to 1.3700.

9Us5UrKXmMlh7FmHzRTvffqMVfPp3zkVl3AOKkTwThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast of GBP / USD for December 28, 2018

GBP / USD

The British pound on Thursday showed sluggish growth, but if the euro continues to strengthen at yesterday's brisk pace, the pound may also follow it. At the current time, on the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line is turning up from the zero lines and the price from the Kruzenshtern line (blue indicator) is unfolding on the four-hour chart. The immediate goal is the resistance of the daily price channel line, which coincides with the balance line, and successfully overcoming it will open the way to the range of 1.2810 / 80. The upper limit of the target range is the Kruzenshtern line of daily scale. Fixing the price below yesterday's low (1.2615) will create prerequisites for a decline to 1.2490, support for the nested line of the price channel.

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2IoM00E0BQnuUYf7Hbu0gVFwCBDUJTOj9gZpS4F9The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 28

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the price forms the potential for the upward movement from December 26 in the correction of the downward structure on December 20 and the level of 1.1460 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 1.2680 and at the current moment, the price is in the correction. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms the potential for the downward movement of December 26 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 0.9845. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of December 26 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 111.48. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the price is in correction from the downward structure and forms the potential for the top from December 26th. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we expect the continuation of the movement to the bottom after the breakdown of 139.86, and at the current moment, mainly, we expect movement in the correction.

Forecast for December 28:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:f-xZi1jcFe7zR99Pj8B8tl4EVEGc7-xEpcy36UbUFor the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1538, 1.1496, 1.1481, 1.1460. 1.1420, 1.1399, 1.1367 and 1.1341. Here, the price has formed a rather pronounced potential for the upward movement of December 26. The development of which is expected after the breakdown of 1.1460. In this case, the target is 1.1481. The potential value for the top, while we consider the level of 1.1538, the movement to which, we expect after the price passes the range of 1.1481 - 1.1496.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 1.1420 - 1.1399 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.1367 and this level is a key resistance to the downward structure of December 20. Its breakdown will lead to the development of this structure. Here, the first goal is 1.1341.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 20, the formation of potential for the top of December 26 in correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1460 Take profit: 1.1480

Buy 1.1496 Take profit: 1.1535

Sell: 1.1420 Take profit: 1.1400

Sell: 1.1496 Take profit: 1.1370JHoip3uwQP8BemiMPI2wlyjJ1NFG5DBx41xUTL8aFor the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2865, 1.2813, 1.2741, 1.2679, 1.2592, 1.2552, 1.2517, 1.2475 and 1.2417. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of December 11. The continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 1.2679. In this case, the goal is 1.2741 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2741 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2813. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2865, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 1.2592 - 1.2552. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2517 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.2475.

The main trend is the ascending structure of December 11, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2680 Take profit: 1.2740

Buy: 1.2744 Take profit: 1.2813

Sell: 1.2591 Take profit: 1.2552

Sell: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2517e7vj3NSoQzky4XZBy7ovGtg3s91QMbxS6DPq1SGOFor the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.9919, 0.9895, 0.9879, 0.9847, 0.9826, 0.9813 and 0.9771. Here, the price forms the potential for the downward movement of December 26. The ascending structure of December 21 is no longer relevant for setting goals. The continuation of the movement to the bottom, we expect after the breakdown 0.9847. In this case, the goal is 0.9826 and near this level is the price consolidation. The price pass of the range of 0.9826 - 0.9813 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9771, from this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 0.9879 - 0.9895. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.9919 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of December 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9880 Take profit: 0.9893

Buy: 0.9897 Take profit: 0.9916

Sell: 0.9845 Take profit: 0.9826

Sell: 0.9811 Take profit: 0.97753-XvB9A7bo1GFGNN-FCQF_75vAAk5eSuplTKVHk4For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are 112.61, 112.29, 111.70, 111.48, 110.99, 110.73, 110.54 and 110.26. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure from December 26th. The short-term upward movement, we expect in the range of 111.48 - 111.70. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 112.29. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 112.61, after reaching which, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, perhaps in the range of 110.99 - 110.73. The range of 110.73 - 110.54 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form a downward movement. Here, the goal is 110.26.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.48 Take profit: 111.70

Buy: 111.73 Take profit: 112.26

Sell: 110.73 Take profit: 110.55

Sell: 110.52 Take profit: 110.28

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3741, 1.3667, 1.3621, 1.3557, 1.3516 and 1.3463. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of December 7. The short-term upward movement, we expect in the range of 1.3621 - 1.3667. The breakdown of the last value will allow expecting a movement towards a potential target of 1.3741, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 1.3557 - 1.3516. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.3453 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of December 7th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3621 Take profit: 1.3665

Buy: 1.3670 Take profit: 1.3740

Sell: 1.3555 Take profit: 1.3518

Sell: 1.3514 Take profit: 1.3465

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7148, 0.7115, 0.7075, 0.7049, 0.7015, 0.6997, 0.6954 and 0.6919. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of December 13. The continuation of the movement to the bottom, we expect after the price passes the range of 0.7015 - 0.6997. In this case, the target is 0.6954. A potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6919, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend, possibly in the range of 0.7049 - 0.7075. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7115 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 0.7148.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7050 Take profit: 0.7073

Buy: 0.7077 Take profit: 0.7115

Sell: 0.6995 Take profit: 0.6958

Sell: 0.6952 Take profit: 0.6921

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.48, 127.00, 126.68, 126.14, 125.89 and 125.30. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of December 13. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The short-term downward movement, we expect in the range of 126.14 - 125.89. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to a potential target. In this case, the target is 125.30 and we expect a rollback to the top from this level.

The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 126.68 - 127.00. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 127.48 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 13, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 127.03 Take profit: 127.40

Sell: 126.14 Take profit: 125.92

Sell: 125.87 Take profit: 125.35

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 142.09, 141.30, 140.92, 140.22, 139.86 and 139.15. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of December 13. The short-term downward movement, we expect in the range of 140.22 - 139.86. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 139.15. From the level of 139.15, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend, possibly in the range of 140.92 - 141.30. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 142.09 and this level is the key support for the bottom. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the goal is 142.73.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.92 Take profit: 141.25

Buy: 141.35 Take profit: 142.05

Sell: 140.20 Take profit: 139.90

Sell: 139.83 Take profit: 139.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD pair on December 28, 2018

EUR / USD pair

Yesterday, the euro rose by 77 points, reaching the Kruzenshtern line on a daily scale chart. Thus, closing off a maximum of Monday. The growth of the euro occurred against the weakening of other world currencies, which shows a strong speculative bullish market sentiment. On the four-hour chart, the price steadily keeps above the MACD and balance lines. The Marlin oscillator is in a growing position. Euro is set to overcome the resistance of the daytime (MACD line) and continueS to grow, approximately, in the range of 1.1526 / 75. Higher prices are currently unjustified. The euro downward reversal is now difficult. The price should consolidate below the signal level 1.1356 to start the downward scenario.

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teNvVHKXLp2hckf4fWQ8WtxnPpPX2JVAWfOE5rTQ

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Ethereum for 28/12/2018

The projects that had their ICOs on the blockhouse at Ethereum quickly withdrew their ETH assets from June 2018. Payments from treasury securities reached the highest level in December, and more than 420,000 ETH were "liquidated".

In the current month, more than 40,000,000 coins have been paid out from ICO, making the month the largest withdrawal period this year, according to Diara.

The market research company also reveals statistics on the prolonged bearish market in 2018. In January, the total amount of ETH in the ICO vaults was 4,623,148. Currently, this number has been reduced to 3,052,168 ETH. The average monthly payments are 2.45%, while in December 12.20% of the Aether was withdrawn from Treasury bonds.

November was also a month of massive sales when more than 290,000 ETH were closed down, with the payment of 82,000 ETH by Tezos.

Looking at the annual chart of ETH prices, it turns out that the third quarter was particularly merciless for the leading cryptocurrency. In December, it fell to just $ 83, being almost 95% lower than the record high values at the beginning of the year.

Let's now take a look at the Ethereum technical picture at the H4 time frame chart. The market has retraced almost 61% since the new local top was made at the level of 155.06 and currently is trading close to the level of 112.43, just above the 61% Fibo level at 106.78. The market conditions are now oversold and the momentum is kind of weak to neutral, so there is a chance for bulls to move a little bit higher towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 117.40. Nevertheless, the key level for bulls is seen at 132.92 and as long as it is not violated, the market will be controlled by bears.

analytics5c25de37bba95.jpg

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for December 28, 2018 for the pair EUR / USD

On Friday, after reaching 1.1462 - the resistance line (red bold line), there is a possibility of a downward movement with the first target of 1.1438 - a recoil level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, after reaching 1.1462 - the resistance line (red bold line), there is a possibility of a downward movement with the first target of 1.1438 - a recoil level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 28, 2018

analytics5c25b7d8a02e2.png

Wave iv is extending and has tested the 50% corrective target at 1.7105. The unexpected rally to the 50% corrective target has been followed by divergence on the RSI, indicating near-term exhaustion of the rally in the wave iv.

In the short term, a break below minor support at 1.7000 will be the first good indication that the wave iv has completed, while a break below support at 1.6950 will confirm that the wave iv is complete and the wave v lower to at least 1.1615 is developing.

R3: 1.7288

R2: 1.7247

R1: 1.7165

Pivot: 1.7105

S1: 1.7043

S2: 1.7000

S3: 1.6950

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.6975 and has placed our stop at 1.7185

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 28, 2018

analytics5c25b61bb3396.png

The ongoing correction from 125.33 has spiked above the 38.2% corrective target at 126.85 to a high of 127.09. We expect this correction to be near its completion for a final dip towards at least 124.89 and, ideally, closer to the long-term downside target for the wave (E) at 123.66.

In the short term, a break below support at 126.23 and, more importantly, a break below support at 125.98 will confirm the wave v is lowering towards 124.89 and below.

R3: 127.52

R2: 127.27

R1: 127.09

Pivot: 126.65

S1: 126.23

S2: 125.98

S3: 125.75

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 127.05 was hit for a 100-pip profit. We will sell a break below 126.23.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of NZD/JPY for December 28, 2018

NZD/JPY has been quite non-volatile and impulsive with the bearish pressure since it bounced off 79.00 area with a daily close. JPY having optimistic approach and mixed economic reports managed to gain ground while NZD is silent throughout the holidays leading to further weakness in the process.

Due to holidays, NZD did not have any economic reports or events this week which could inject any bullish pressure in the process. As a result, JPY rose further despite the mixed economic reports which are mostly negative. Recently the BOJ Core CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.6% and the Housing Starts decreased to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at -0.2%. Today the Tokyo Core CPI report was published as expected with a decrease to 0.9% from the previous value of 1.0% and the Unemployment Rate increased to 2.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.4%. Moreover, the Prelim Industrial Production decreased to -1.1% from the previous value of 2.9% which showed a better than expected value of -1.7% and the Retail Sales decreased to 1.4% from the previous value of 3.6% which was expected to be at 2.1%.

As of the current scenario, JPY is expected to gain further momentum against NZD though certain corrections and pullbacks may be observed due to recently published worse JPY reports. However, as NZD remains silent and dovish with the upcoming economic reports, further bearish gains on the JPY side are expected in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price breached below 75.00-50 support area and the dynamic support area of Kumo Cloud with a daily close which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure. As the price is residing quite away from the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line, certain bullish pressure may be observed in the process before the price strongly pushes down towards 72.50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 75.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 72.50

RESISTANCE: 75.00-50, 77.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

analytics5c25b57f7465d.png

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Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for December 28, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite impressive with the recent non-volatile bearish gains recently. As a result, the price resided at the edge of 0.6700 area. As of the holidays, NZD had no economic reports to support its counter momentum against USD which is being supported by the market sentiment against NZD due to recent rate hike and optimistic view of the Fed.

This week NZD did not have any impactful economic reports or events to deviate the market sentiment towards it. As NZD has been underperforming with the earlier economic reports, market bias is currently against the currency.

On the USD side, recently the US CB Consumer Confidence report was published with a decrease to 128.1 from the previous figure of 136.4 which was expected to be at 133.7. The worse economic reports added to more weakness for the currency in the process. Today the US Pending Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of -2.6% and the Natural Gas Storage is expected to increase to -50B from the previous figure of -141B.

As of the current scenario, despite having worse economic reports and mixed expectations of the upcoming economic reports results, USD gained momentum quite consistently against NZD which indicates the severe weakness of NZD in the process. Ahead of the NFP report next week, any worse economic reports on USD and positive economic reports on NZD may lead to certain bullish pressure in the process resulting in retracement.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the support of 0.6700 area along with the dynamic support area of Kumo Cloud which is expected to lead the price higher towards 0.6950-0.70 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.6700 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.6500, 0.6700

RESISTANCE: 0.6950, 0.70

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c25b00138898.png

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Technical analysis for Gold for December 28, 2018

Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The price is approaching our Fibonacci target of 61.8% of the entire decline, as we mentioned in previous posts. There no warning signs for a major top.

analytics5c25d17f183f6.png

Green line - major trend line support

Blue line - short-term support trend line

Gold line - RSI support trend line

Gold price is approaching our $1,287 target where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is an important resistance area and I expect to see a pause to this upward trend. The Daily RSI has just entered the overbought levels. There is no bearish divergence. Short-term support and possible pullback area is at $1,260. Resistance is at $1,287-90 and the next one is at $1,308. The trend remains bullish. A break below the blue trend line support would be a bearish sign and something that bulls would not like to see as this would put the bullish scenario and bullish medium-term trend in danger.

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EUR/USD challenges important resistance levels

The EUR/USD pair has managed to hold above the 1.1350 support once again and bulls are now trying to break above the important medium-term resistance levels. EUR/USD is once again above 1.14-1.1430 and this time, an upward breakout rather than another rejection is more likely.

analytics5c25cee97b083.png

Yellow rectangles - trading range

Green line - RSI support trend line

Red line -major trend line resistance

EUR/USD is trying to break above the upper boundary of the trading range for the fourth time, while at the same time, it touches the red downward sloping trend line resistance for the fifth time. As we noted in the previous posts, the Daily bullish divergence signs by the RSI increase the chance of an upward breakout. Our first target is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire decline. Key support at 1.1350 has been held, so there are more signs of strength than that of weakness.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for December 28, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite volatile and indecisive recently after the impulsive bearish pressure leading the price towards 0.9700 area with a daily close. USD having worse economic reports recently lead CHF to gain momentum in the volatile indecisive price action despite the recent rate hike decision and hawkish statement from the Fed.

After the Christmas holiday, USD has been quite weak with its approach leading to certain gains on the CHF side due to underperforming economic reports. Recently, the US CB Consumer Confidence report was published with a decrease to 128.1 from the previous figure of 136.4 which was expected to be at 133.7. Worse-than-expected economic reports added to more weakness for the currency. Today the US Pending Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of -2.6% and the Natural Gas Storage is expected to increase to -50B from the previous figure of -141B.

On the other hand, CHF has been quite positive with the economic reports comparatively this week. Recently the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations report was published with a decrease to -22.2 from the previous figure of -42.3. Today, the KOF Economic indicator is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 98.7 from the previous figure of 99.1.

As of the current scenario, USD has been struggling with the recently published economic reports while CHF managed to sustain the positivity along with the gains in the process. Ahead of NFP next week, if USD underperforms in the process, further gains on the CHF side may be observed.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite volatile and indecisive recently between the range of 0.9850-0.9950. The price is currently pushing lower while being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is expected to lead the price much lower towards 0.9550 support area in the future. A daily close below 0.9850 is expected to ensure further impulsive bearish momentum in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.9550, 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 0.9950, 1.0050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis for Dow Jones for December 27, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The Dow Jones has been on a free fall since 26,000 levels, that was hit on December 03, 2018. A 4-hour chart view has been presented here with immediate trend line and projected fibonacci ratios for the short-medium term outlook. As highlighted here, the first 3 fibonacci targets have been hit already at 23,550, 23,120 and 21,900 levels respectively; before the index turned higher from 21,800 levels yesterday. Please note that the current rally could prove to be corrective/counter trend rally and the indice could reverse lower towards the next fibonacci target at 21,300 levels as highlighted on the chart here. Also note that projected resistance zone according to fibonacci resistance and downtrend line is seen around 23,300/400 levels. Ideally, bears should regain control back around that levels and resume the down trend.

Trading plan:

Look to sell around 23,300/400, stop at 24,000, target 21,300

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD for December 28, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, and German Prelim CPI m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Chicago PMI, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Goods Trade Balance, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1501. Strong Resistance: 1.1494. Original Resistance: 1.1483. Inner Sell Area: 1.1472. Target Inner Area: 1.1445. Inner Buy Area: 1.1418. Original Support: 1.1407. Strong Support: 1.1396. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1389. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY for December 28, 2018

USD/JPY

Despite the recovery of the US stock market (even if it is still unstable), the yen could not withstand the pressures of Japanese economic statistics this morning and turned down from the key level of 111.40, the overcoming of which would be a condition for growth by 112.30. The unemployment rate increased from 2.4% to 2.5%, industrial production in November fell by 1.1%, retail sales slowed from 3.6% y/y to 1.4% y/y Japan's Nikkei 225 loses in the Asian session of 0.84%.

On the four-hour chart, the price turned down from the balance line. The transition of the Marlin oscillator to the negative zone will allow the price to develop a downward movement in the range of 109.38/79 (lows June 25 and August 21).

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