Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 24.07.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The descending trendline breakout was very short-lived after the GBP/USD market has broken back below the level of 1.2480 after the failed rally to the level of 1.2556. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook as the bears are in control of the market despite the battle of the trendline. New local lows made at the level of 1.2417 should be soon violated as well and the level of 1.2381 should be tested again soon. In a case of a further breakout, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 (weekly support).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2789

WR2 - 1.2679

WR1 - 1.2588

Weekly Pivot - 1.2485

WS1 - 1.2394

WS2 - 1.2201

WS3 - 1.1089

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 and 1.1983.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 24.07.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a new low at the level of 1.1140 (at the time of writing) after the technical support located at the level of 1.1181 has been violated. The next target is seen at the level of 1.1103 and it might be hit very soon as the momentum is weak and negative. The bears are in full control of the market despite the oversold conditions. No signs of the short-term trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1340

WR2 - 1.1310

WR1 - 1.1257

Weekly Pivot - 1.1229

WS1 - 1.1171

WS2 - 1.1143

WS3 - 1.1089

Trading Recommendations:

After the level of 1.1181 gas been violated, the best strategy for the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. The Ending Diagonal pattern has not been finished yet and the bears are in full control of the market. The longer-term target is seen at the level of 1.0814.

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Overview of EUR/USD on July 24th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The business activity indices of the EU and

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -172.1986

A day remains before the announcement of the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank, the euro continues to fall, and traders finally get their hands on macroeconomic statistics. Although, as shown on Tuesday, the bears did not need statistics in order to activate and lead the euro to new lows. We have already written about the possible results of the ECB meeting many times. At best, for the euro, monetary easing and a restart of the QE program for the future will be announced, at worst – the deposit rate will be reduced by 10-20 points. Today, on Wednesday, July 24, there will also be interesting information that can affect the euro/dollar exchange rate. We are talking about 6 indices of business activity in Germany and the European Union. Recall that the indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector and Germany, and the EU is below 50, which signals a negative trend. Business activity in the service sector is still above 50, as well as composite indices, however, the overall trend is still downward. Since there were no prerequisites for the growth of business activity in the past month, we do not expect serious increases in these indicators. There may be small changes for the better, but it is unlikely that the euro will react to their growth. But an even greater drop in business activity in any sphere can lead to a new wave of sales of the European currency. In this case, the pair has every chance to update the annual lows.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1169

R2 – 1.1230

R3 – 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its downward movement. On July 24, therefore, it is still recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1108 before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top.

It is recommended to buy the euro in small lots if the bulls manage to return the pair above the moving average line, which will change the trend to the upward one, and the first goal, in this case, will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 24. US government debt ceiling raised, IMF lowers global GDP growth forecast

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's news that an agreement was reached on the ceiling of the US national debt, as well as the resumption of negotiations between the United States and China, helped the US dollar to continue its growth against the weakening euro. Today, buyers will try to do at least something in the support area of 1.1137, where the formation of a false breakdown with a divergence on the MACD indicator will be the first signal to open long positions, the purpose of which will be the resistance of 1.1160. Consolidating above this level will lead to a larger upward correction of the euro in the area of 1.1183, where I recommend to take profit. If the pressure on EUR/USD continues after the release of weak reports on the German and Eurozone PMI indices, then it's best to expect the bearish trend to stop in the area of new local lows in 1.1110 and 1.1079, where you can open long positions to rebound immediately.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The strength of the US dollar is clear, but the pressure on the euro will continue until tomorrow's decision of the European Central Bank. Bears only need a correction in the resistance area of 1.1160, since the formation of a false breakdown there will be another signal to open short positions. The goal of the sellers will be the support of 1.1137, the breakthrough of which will only increase the pressure on the pair and lead to further downward movement to the area of 1.1110 and 1.1079, where I recommend to take profit. It is important to note that if sellers attempt to immediately break through in the first half of the day below 1.1137, then the divergence, which is formed on the MACD indicator, may limit the downward potential. With growth above the level of 1.1160, you can sell the euro on a rebound from a large high of 1.1183, where the moving average also passes.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an advantage on the part of euro sellers.

Bollinger bands

In case of an upward correction, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1165 will act as a large resistance level.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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GBPUSD approaching our first support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.2423

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.2384

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 1.2524

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

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USD/CAD reversed off resistance, potential drop!

Price reversed off its resistance at 1.3151 where it could potentially reverse back down towards its support. .

Entry: 1.3151

Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 23.6% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.3185

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.3105

Why it's good: Horizontal pullback support, 50% Fibonacci retracement

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USD/JPY reverse off resistance, further drop!

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USDJPY reversing off 1st resistance at 108.38 where a reversal could occur.

Entry :108.38

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

61.8% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 108.08

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal overlap support

61.8% Fibonacci extension

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for July 24, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has dropped lower than our immediate expectations, breaking below 1.1180 support as seen on the 4H chart displayed here. Profits should be booked for short positions taken from last Friday around current price action at 1.1140/50 levels. Looking into the wave structure, a slight pullback on higher side can be expected going forward, before EUR/USD continues to drift lower again. The resistance zone is just around 1.1220/30 levels where fibonacci 0.618 is also converging with the dropping trendline. Ideally prices should stay below 1.1289/90 levels, which is immediate resistance now. Any intraday/interday rallies from here should be well capped below 1.1290 levels as shown above. The alternative count could be that prices retrace the entire drop between 1.1412 through 1.1140 levels and then reverse lower. In both the above scenarios, we expect prices to rally from current levels and provide opportunities to sell higher again.

Trading plan:

Please remain flat for now; look to sell again around 1.1220/30, stop at 1.1290 levels, target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 24 - 2019

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Short-term important resistance at 135.09 once again capped the upside and extended the sideways consolidation in minor wave 2. We continue to look for support in the 134.27 - 134.35 area for an ultimate break above short-term resistance at 135.09 confirming a continuation higher to resistance in the 136.28 - 136.06 area. A break above here will confirm that wave 2 is completed and wave 3 pushes higher towards at least 156.76 where wave 3 will be 161.8% the length of wave 1.

Thus, a break below 133.82 is rather undesirable.

R3: 136.28

R2: 136.05

R1: 135.28

Pivot: 135.02

S1: 134.77

S2: 134.57

S3: 134.35

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 134.85

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 24 - 2019

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EUR/JPY has now touched the ideal target at 120.62 (the low has been seen at 120.51). This means our target has been more than fulfilled and wave II could terminate anytime now as a new impulsive rally in wave III could take over.

The first strong indication that wave II has completed and wave III is developing will be a break above 121.28. A break above here will call for a continuation towards 122.30 and 123.36 as the next hurdles.

That said, we need to accept the possibility of a little more downside as long as resistance at 121.28 is able to cap the upside, but the potential downside should be very limited.

R3: 121.84

R2: 121.53

R1: 121.28

Pivot: 120.76

S1: 120.51

S2: 120.32

S3: 120.00

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.85

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, July 24, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Belgian NBB Business Climate, Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, and French Flash Services PMI. The US will also publish the economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, New Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1205. Strong Resistance: 1.1199. Original Resistance: 1.1188. Inner Sell Area: 1.1177. Target Inner Area: 1.1151. Inner Buy Area: 1.1125. Original Support: 1.1114. Strong Support: 1.1103. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1097. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 24, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the US will publish some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, New Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 108.78. Resistance. 2: 108.57. Resistance. 1: 108.36. Support. 1: 108.08. Support. 2: 107.87. Support. 3: 107.66.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 24, 2019

USD / JPY pair

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair rose by 34 points and consolidates above the balance line on the daily scale chart. Marlin oscillator signal line strengthened in the zone of increasing trend. The immediate goal of the dollar growth is on the area of the MACD line and the price channel line of 108.70. Overcoming it opens the way to the next line of the price channel in the region of 100.68.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is consolidating on the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth area. Exiting the maximum price yesterday at 108.30 will signal further growth.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 24, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday, US President Trump and the leaders of the Parliamentary factions managed to reach an agreement to lift the limit of public debt before July 31, 2021. Moreover, this agreement was immediately reached, without scandals and disputes. It remains to hold a decision in Congress. Undoubtedly, this is good news for the dollar. Treasury will again offer the world market a very popular product during the crisis - US government bonds, which in turn increases the demand for dollars. In the evening, data on sales of new homes for June will be published - 659 thousand forecast against 626 thousand earlier.

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The euro has reached the first goal - a Fibonacci level of 110.0% on a daily scale chart. Now it is the turn of the underlying targets - 1.1116 (lows of May 30 and April 25) and 1.1074 - 123.6% Fibonacci level.

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On the four-hour chart, the price weakly consolidates below the level of 1.1155, the uplifted line of the leading Marlin oscillator warns of a likely longer correction (in a few more candles), after which we are waiting for the price to fall once again.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 24, 2019

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, Boris Johnson was elected leader of the Conservative Party of Great Britain. Today he takes office as prime minister. In addition, the balance of production orders in the UK from CBI for July has fallen from -15 to -34, which is the lowest value since April 2010, and in fact, since September 2008, when the global crisis was raging. Then this indicator decreased to -59 and by April 2019 reached -36. Yesterday, the pound sterling fell by 36 points, but could lose more. Perhaps it has everything ahead of it.

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On the daily chart, the situation is developing in its own way, waiting for the price on the embedded line of the price channel, around 1.2280.

On the four-hour chart, a downward trend has fully formed - the price has consolidated below the indicator lines of balance (red) and MACD (blue), the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is steadily staying in the zone of negative values. We are waiting for the price at a target level of 1.2280.

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Control zones for Oil on 24.07.19

Today's trading plan is to find a favorable price for the purchase of an instrument. Yesterday's closure of the American session occurred above the 1/2 WCZ of 56.74-56.56, which indicates that the priority has been changed to a bullish one. The target for growth is the weekly CZ of 58.75-58.39.

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The defining support is the 1/2 WCZ of 55.59-55.41. As long as oil is trading above the specified zone, the upward movement will remain a pulse. The probability of updating the weekly maximum will be 70%.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's US session happens below 55.41. This will cancel the purchase and force us to consider sales in the second half of the week. The probability of implementing this model is 30%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 23, 2019. Analysis of

Minuette ( H4 )

Let us consider the comprehensive options for the development of the movement of currency instruments AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX from July 23, 2019 on the Minuette operational scale (H4 timeframe).

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US Dollar Index

The direction of development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX from July 23, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

  • resistance level of 97.35 (lower limit of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • 97.25 support level (Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale)

For the breakdown of the support level of 97.25 (1/2 Median Line Minuette), the downward movement of the dollar index can be continued towards the targets - the lower limit of the ISL38.2 (96.92) Minuette operational scale fork - the final Schiff Line Minuette (96.73) - the initial SSL line (96.60) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the final Schiff Line Minuette (96.45), and the option to reach the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette ( 96.10 ).

In the event of a breakdown of the lower limit of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 97.35), the development of the #USDX movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.35 - 97.60 - 97.90) of the Minuette operational scale, with the prospect of reaching the final FSL Minuette line (98.55).

The markup of the #USDX motion options from July 23, 2019 is viewed on the animated graphics.

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Australian dollar vs US Dollar

The development of the AUD / USD movement from July 23, 2019 will be determined by working out towards the direction of the breakdown of the equilibrium zone (0.7048 - 0.7025 - 0.7000) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

For the breakdown of the upper limit of the ISL61.8 (resistance level of 0.7048) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette, it will determine the development of the AUD / USD movement towards the targets - the initial SSL line (0.7070) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the local maximum 0.7083 - the UTL Minuette control line (0.7090) - the final line FSL Minuette (0.7135).

In case of a breakdown of the lower limit of ISL38.2 (support level of 0.7000) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the downward movement of theAustralian dollar will continue to the equilibrium zone (0.6985 - 0.6960 - 0.6935) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup of the options for the movement of AUD / USD from July 23, 2019 are viewed on the animated graphics.

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New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar

The further development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD from July 23, 2019 will be determined by working out towards the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6765 - 0.6795 - 0.6825) of the Minuette operational scale.

The breakdown resistance level of 0.6825 (upper limit of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork) confirms the possibility of developing the upward movement of the New Zealand dollar to the targets - the final FSL line (0.6845) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the final FSL Minuette line (0.6920).

If the support level of 0.6765 is broken (ISL38.2 lower limit of the balance zone of the Minuette operational scale fork), the downward movement of NZD / USD will continue to the borders of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (0.6730 - 0.6710 - 0.6684) with the possibility of reaching the Median Line (0.6640) Minuette operational scale fork.

For the layout of the movement options for NZD / USD July 23, 2019, look at the animated graphics.

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US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar

The development and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel borders (1.3150 - 1.3120 - 1.3090) of the Minuette operational scale will determine the development of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD movement from July 23, 2019.

After the support level of 1.3090 is broken (lower channel 1/2 border Median Line Minuette) USD / CAD downward movement will be directed to the initial SSL (1.3015 - local minimum) and control LTL (1.2995) lines of the Minuette operational scale forks.

As a result of the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3150 (the upper limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette) will be relevant to the continuation of the upward movement of USD / CAD to the equilibrium zone (1.3165 - 1.3210 - 1.3260) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The layout of the options for the movement of USD / CAD from July 23, 2019 is viewed on the animated graphics.

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The review was compiled without regard to the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy ")

The formula for calculating the dollar index is

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the date of the beginning of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 24

Forecast for July 24:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1212, 1.1195, 1.1174, 1.1162, 1.1142, 1.1119, 1.1104 and 1.1073. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of July 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1142. In this case, the target is 1.1119. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1119 - 1.1104. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1073. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1104.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1162 - 1.1174. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1195. We expect the registration of the expressed initial conditions for the ascending cycle to the level of 1.1212.

The main trend is a local downward structure of July 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1162 Take profit: 1.1174

Buy 1.1175 Take profit: 1.1195

Sell: 1.1140 Take profit: 1.1120

Sell: 1.1104 Take profit: 1.1075

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2623, 1.2598, 1.2568, 1.2522, 1.2492, 1.2486, 1.2420 and 1.2379. Here, the price is close to the abolition of the ascending structure of July 17, for which the breakdown of the 1.2420 level is necessary. In this case, the first potential target is 1.2379. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2468 - 1.2492. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form a local structure for the top. Here, the target is 1.2522. This level is a key resistance for the upward trend. Its breakdown must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the potential target - 1.2568.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of July 17, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2468 Take profit: 1.2490

Buy: 1.2493 Take profit: 1.2522

Sell: 1.2420 Take profit: 1.2380

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9902, 0.9881, 0.9858, 0.9841, 0.9798, 0.9779, 0.9745 and 0.9731. Here, we continue to follow the formation of the downward structure of July 17. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone and forms a small potential for the top of July 22. The development of which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9881. In this case, the first potential target is 0.9902. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9798 - 0.9779. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9745. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9731. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

The main trend is the local downward structure of July 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9860 Take profit: 0.9880

Buy : 0.9882 Take profit: 0.9902

Sell: 0.9798 Take profit: 0.9780

Sell: 0.9776 Take profit: 0.9747

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.94, 108.72, 108.39, 108.26, 107.97, 107.83 and 107.58. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passage by the noise range of 108.26 - 108.39. In this case, the goal is 108.72. We consider the level of 108.94 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 107.97 - 107.83. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 107.60. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend: the ascending structure of July 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.40 Take profit: 108.70

Buy : 108.73 Take profit: 108.94

Sell: 107.96 Take profit: 107.84

Sell: 107.81 Take profit: 107.60

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3256, 1.3236, 1.3201, 1.3178, 1.3163, 1.3130, 1.3112 and 1.3085. Here, we are following the ascending structure of July 19th. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the passage of the price to the noise range 1.3163 - 1.3178. In this case, the goal - 1.3201, and near this level is a consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.3201 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3236. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3256. Upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3130 - 1.3112. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3085. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3178 Take profit: 1.3200

Buy : 1.3203 Take profit: 1.3234

Sell: 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3112

Sell: 1.3110 Take profit: 1.3085

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7032, 0.7011, 0.6998, 0.6977, 0.6958, 0.6947 and 0.6924. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of July 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6977. In this case, the goal is 0.6958. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6958 - 0.6947. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6924. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.6998 - 0.7011. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. In this case, the target is 0.7032.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6998 Take profit: 0.7010

Buy: 0.7013 Take profit: 0.7030

Sell : 0.6977 Take profit : 0.6958

Sell: 0.6945 Take profit: 0.6926

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.35, 121.18, 120.86, 120.62, 120.48, 120.14 and 119.91. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of July 10. At the moment, the price is in the noise range of 120.62 - 120.48. The breakdown of the level of 120.46 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.14. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 119.91. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Care in the correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.86. Here, the first target is 121.18. We expect the registration of the expressed initial conditions for the ascending cycle to the level of 121.35.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.86 Take profit: 121.15

Buy: 121.18 Take profit: 121.35

Sell: 120.48 Take profit: 120.15

Sell: 120.12 Take profit: 119.94

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.96, 135.63, 135.40, 135.04, 134.79, 134.38, 134.15, 133.81 and 133.44. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of July 18th. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 134.79 - 135.04. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 135.40. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 135.40 - 135.63. We consider the level of 135.96 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is perhaps in the range of 134.38 - 134.15. The breakdown of the latter value will have to develop a downward trend. Here, the goal is 133.81. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 133.44.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 9, the formation of potential for the top of July 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.06 Take profit: 135.40

Buy: 135.42 Take profit: 135.62

Sell: 134.38 Take profit: 134.17

Sell: 134.12 Take profit: 133.81

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 24, 2019 Analysis of APLs

The proportion of currency instruments EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY in calculating the dollar index #USDX is 83.1%. Thus, let's see how these instruments will behave in the market from July 24, 2019.

Minuette (H4 time frame)

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US dollar Index

From July 24, 2019, the development of the dollar index movement #USDX will be due to the testing and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel boundaries (97.60 - 97.45 - 97.30) of the Minuette operational scale. The movement options within this channel are presented in the animated graphics.

If the support level of 97.30 is broken, (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale fork) together with the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (97.25), the downward movement of the dollar index will be directed to the targets - the initial SSL line (97.00) of the Minuette operating scale fork - the lower boundary ISL38.2 (96.90) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - control line LTL Minuette (96.82) - final Schiff Line Minuette (96.67).

In the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 97.60), the forwarded Minuette operational scale movement #USDX will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.55 - 97.75 - 97.95) of the Minuette operating scale with the prospect of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (98.10).

The details of the #USDX movement within the channel are shown in the animated graphics.

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Euro vs US dollar

The development and direction of the breakdown of the equilibrium zone (1.1140 - 1.1170 - 1.1200) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the further development of the movement of the common European currency EUR / USD from July 24, 2019. Let's look at the illustration.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.1200) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct the EUR / USD movement to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1215 - 1.1255 - 1.1290) of the Minute operational scale fork.

On the other hand, if the EUR / USD breaks the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 (support level of 1.1140) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, then there will be a continuation of the development of the downward movement to the local minimum of 1.1107 and the final FSL line (support level of 1.1100) of the Minuette operation scale fork.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated graphics.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Her Majesty's currency GBP / USD continues to remain in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2500 - 1.2455 - 1.2415) of the Minuette operating scale fork, and accordingly, the further development of the movement of this instrument will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the specified higher levels. Let's see the options for the movement within this channel in the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2570 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette will confirm the further movement of the GBP / USD which will begin to flow into the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2500 - 1.2540 - 1.2575) of the Minuette operating scale fork with the prospect of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (1.2635).

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (support level of 1.2415) will determine the further development of the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the targets - the local minimum (1.2381) - warning line LWL38.2 Minuette (1.2360) - warning line LWL61.8 Minuette (1.2285) - control line LTL Minuette (1.2265).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the animated graphics.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The further development of the movement of the "currency of the rising sun" USD / JPY from July 24, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown:

- resistance level of 108.40 (lower boundary of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);

- support level of 108.20 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale fork)

The breakdown of the support level of 108.20 will confirm the development of the USD / JPY movement within the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.20 - 107.75 - 107.32) of the Minuette operating scale with the prospect of updating the local minimum 107.32 and reaching the minimum 106.80.

Meanwhile, in the case of the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 108.40), the development of the "currency of the rising sun" movement will continue within the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale fork (108.40 - 108.70 - 109.00) and Minuette (108.85 - 109.50 - 110.15).

The details of the movement options of USD / JPY are presented in the animated graphics.

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the date of the beginning of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold in anticipation of the Fed rate cut

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Surprisingly, but a fact: amid the strengthening greenback, gold renews its perennial highs.

Since 2013, the precious metal has been trading in the range of $1050-1385 per ounce, and only recently strengthened expectations regarding easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States allowed quotes to come out.

The main obstacle in the path of "bulls" on XAU/USD is traditionally considered to be a strong dollar, but even now its position does not seem to be hopeless. What then is the matter?

If in 2014-2018, the US currency showed growth due to the tightening of the monetary rate of the Fed, then at present it remains stable primarily due to the weakness of competitors.

The Fed is signaling its intention to carry out monetary expansion for preventive purposes. The Bank of England in front of the "hawk" turns into a "dove". The ECB is also ready to ease monetary policy.

In conditions when it is difficult to find a strong currency, investors switch to other assets.

Promotions?

The historical highs of the S&P 500 index are undoubtedly impressive, but the higher it grows, the stronger the impression that this is a "bubble". The only driver of the rally is investor confidence in aggressively lowering the Fed rate. If the US central bank does not go in the wake of the market, the fall of the S&P 500 will be guaranteed.

Bonds?

Under normal conditions, bonds act as an alternative to gold and take advantage of it in the form of interest income. However, when the volume of negative-yield bonds traded on the global market increases by leaps and bounds, and currently exceeds $13 trillion, investors start looking at the yellow precious metal in a completely different way. Buying gold seems to be the best choice for them. In fact, which is preferable: not having interest income or paying extra for the fact that you own bonds?

Is it any wonder, then, that in the conditions of only a formally strong dollar, the increasing risks of lowering the S&P 500 and the growing number of traded bonds with negative yields, investors prefer gold? Gold ETF reserves have already exceeded 74 million ounces - less than 18 million below the record high of 92 million ounces recorded in 2011.

"The vector of the monetary policy of key central banks seems to have changed, so we are optimistic about the prospects for the yellow precious metal," said experts from Citigroup.

"We expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points at the July meeting. At the same time, we do not exclude that the regulator can reduce it immediately by 50 basis points. The beginning of the decline in interest rates in the United States will be a positive event for the bulls on gold," they added.

According to Citigroup's forecast, in the third quarter the price of gold will average $1,425 per ounce, and in the fourth quarter - $1,450.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

A hurricane in the form of Boris Johnson and a total reduction in rates is approaching the euro and the pound

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Market participants reinforce expectations of policy easing not only by the Fed, but also by the ECB. Some estimates suggest that currency quotes are predicted to lower interest rates in Europe by 10 basis points this Thursday. Traders make premature conclusions based on the dynamics of debt markets, which may be distorted by the demand for defensive assets. Perhaps this is what is happening now. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf are pressing, and on the other, anxiety around the"hard" Brexit. This scenario is becoming more and more likely, as ardent eurosceptic Boris Johnson is announced today as prime minister of the United Kingdom.

Pro pound

The pound is under increased pressure and it's not just Brexit and Johnson. Representatives of the Bank of England hinted that the regulator could join the "dovish" promise of its Fed and ECB counterparts.

Member of the Board of Directors of the British central bank Michael Saunders openly told Bloomberg about the weakness of the UK economy. Its prospects will worsen the painful Brexit, which the regulator is unable to stop. All this contributes to a further decrease in the pound.

It is worth noting that Saunders' dovish comments were made just before the meeting of the central bank next week. This is a sharp turn in the key of the Bank of England, whose representatives sought to ease market expectations, promising to stick to their "gradual, but limited" increases in interest rates.

In a weak economy, it is difficult for the leadership of the British central bank to go in the opposite direction with colleagues who bombarded the market with announcements about further mitigating policies.

In addition, the United Kingdom quite inopportunely strained relations with Iran.

The British currency paired with the dollar traded near the lowest level for two and a half years. Judging by how things are going, the sterling is firmly established at these levels. However, you shouldn't discount the fact that the pound looks oversold after many months of falling, which means that the pressure on it may turn out to be limited.

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About the euro

The euro in conjunction with the dollar fell to monthly lows in the region of 1.1190. The main pair failed to consolidate at 1.12, which had been holding back its weakening since the beginning of June. The decline in yield in European debt markets puts pressure on the euro, while similar expectations regarding the dollar are already fully incorporated in the quotes.

The eurozone is tensely waiting for two events - the results of the vote for the new British prime minister and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. The media actively exaggerates that the current head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, decides to make a resignation for the future, announcing the strengthening of economic-stimulating measures. This, of course, will not appeal to the euro.

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The breakdown of the level of 1.1194 became a signal for opening a short position on the main pair. If we talk about the long term, then, despite the strong expectations of traders about the growth of the dollar and the decline of the euro, things can go differently. Currency battles between titans such as the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of China are becoming more and more obvious. It is unlikely that the dollar will remain strong in conditions of a total reduction in interest rates.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB may surprise the market and send the euro to new lows

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After the regular speech of Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell in the Congress, the derivatives market began to believe in the soft position of the regulator so much that it started laying down the interest rate at the FOMC meeting in July by 0.5%.

However, the latest statistical data on the United States stopped the weakening of the greenback that started on this background and somewhat restrained investors' expectations regarding the Fed's actions at the next meeting, which will be held on July 31. However, their belief in the reduction of the federal funds rate by 0.25% and the fact that the cycle of easing of the monetary policy of the US central bank will begin with this remains unshakable. However, the FOMC accompanying statement can still cool risk appetite.

The US economy is still in good shape and does not require, in contrast to the European one, an increase in monetary incentives. This casts doubt on the feasibility of lowering the interest rate of the Fed at the moment. This step is likely to be political. In this case, the president of the White House, Donald Trump, who is increasing pressure on the Fed and even declaring him the no. 1 enemy of the US economy, will finally receive a strong trump card for conducting trade negotiations with China. It is possible that this will advance them and will become an additional positive factor for the markets.

It is assumed that until the next Fed meeting, the USD index will remain sideways, and after it the greenback will not show significant weakening, but rather will even strengthen to the 98th mark. The medium-term trend for the weakening of the dollar will not start immediately, and only if the Fed confirmed its statements over the beginning of the cycle of interest rate reduction.

Meanwhile, among investors, expectations of easing of monetary policy are intensifying not only on the part of the Fed, but also on the ECB.

Looking at how industrial production is stalling, production orders are shrinking, inflation is not growing at the required pace in the region, the market is becoming increasingly convinced that the ECB's monetary expansion is only a matter of time.

Already at the next meeting, which will be held this week, the regulator may hint about a decrease in the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5% in September and the resuscitation of the quantitative easing program (QE) in the amount of €2.6 trillion at the beginning 2020. According to a consensus forecast of experts recently surveyed by Bloomberg, asset purchases will be €40 billion per month. The possible easing of the ECB monetary rate is a negative for the euro, however, it is most likely already taken into account in the quotes.

The absence of surprises from the regulator at the upcoming meeting may trigger the growth of the single European currency due to the implementation of the principle "sell on rumors, buy on facts".

Can the ECB give the market more than it expects to keep EUR/USD from leaping up?

"We do not think that the ECB has the capacity to ensure a stable and noticeable weakening of the euro, but we believe that the regulator may very well present an unpleasant surprise for the bulls," said the MUFG strategists.

"The most painful reaction will be if the ECB reduces the rate on deposits in July not by 10, but immediately by 20 basis points. Such a decision would be justified if we take into account the weakness of the statistical data for the euro area and the need to apply active measures to get some visible effect. At the same time, a decline in EUR/USD in response to a cut in ECB rates is likely to be short-lived and limited, partly in view of the approaching date of the Fed meeting, which will take place on July 31," they added.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. July 23rd. Results of the day. Markets completely ignored the results of the prime minister elections of Great Britain

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 125p - 75p - 134p - 80p - 58p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 94p (96p).

The British pound sterling has not yet updated its previous local low, so it even has ghostly hopes for being able to strengthen. The main event of the day was the summing up of the election of the prime minister and the head of the Conservative Party of Great Britain. As it is easy to guess, the victory was won by Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London and the former foreign minister. However, traders did not react to this news in any way, logically assuming that it doesn't matter who won, what is important is what happens next with the country, Brexit, foreign economic policy, negotiations with the European Union, relations with the United States and the European Union. That is what really matters. In the near future, after the completion of all formalities, Johnson will take office and then begin to receive any news from the Cabinet of Ministers and Parliament. First of all, regarding the changes and dismissals among ministers and other officials. Some ministers had resigned before today, some said they would not work under the leadership of Johnson. After all the permutations among the ministers, re-election to Parliament is also possible, since the current composition is unlikely to accept the "hard" version of Brexit so hotly pushed by Johnson. Accordingly, the composition of the Parliament will have to be changed, but in this case there is a risk that the Conservative Party will not get the necessary number of votes in order to become ruling. In general, there is a risk for Boris Johnson in any case, because he already promised to withdraw the UK from the EU on time, that is, on October 31.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair resumed the downward movement. Thus, sales of pound with targets at support levels of 1.2395 and 1.2344 are now relevant.

It will be possible to buy the British currency after the pair is re-consolidated above the critical line, which will lead to a change of trend to growth. The first targets are resistance levels of 1.2532 and 1.2591.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com