Daily analysis of Gold for February 16, 2017

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Overview

Gold resumes its positive attempts after the sideways fluctuation that appeared this morning. It supports the continuation of our bullish trend expectations for the rest of the day, with testing the targets at the level of 1,249.94 initially. We remind you that breaching this level will push the price towards 1,260.00 as the next main station. In general, the bullish trend will remain suggested, supported by the EMA50, unless breaking 1,226.50 and most importantly 1,211.31 and holding below them. The expected trading range for today is between 1,225.00 support and 1,249.94 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for February 16, 2017

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Overview

The price shows bullish bias now in attempt to approach from our first main waited target at 18.30. It reinforces our positive overview on the intraday and short-term basis. It is organized inside the bullish channel that appears on the chart, waiting to breach the mentioned level to head towards 19.38, as the next main station. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions unless breaking 17.75 followed by 17.43 levels and holding below them. The expected trading range for today is between 17.75 support and 18.40 resistance.

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NZD/USD fundamental analysis for February 16, 2017

NZD is having some strength issues against continuing bullish volatile trend against USD. Yesterday, NZD has pushed upwards from 0.7150 to 0.7230 with a non-volatile intraday move and still it is struggling to break the 0.7230-50 resistance area. Today, USD is having some major events like Building permits which is forecasted 1.23M than previous 1.21M; Philly FED Manufacturing Index which is forecasted a decrease to 18.5 from 23.6; and Unemployment Claims report which is expected to increase from 234K to 243K. On the other hand, NZD has major event of Retail Sales report tomorrow morning which is expected to rise to 1.1% from 0.9% and Core Retail Sales expected to be 0.9% which previously was 0.3%. Overall, there will be a good amount of volatility in this pair as both currencies will be having high-impact events within next 12 hours. In contrast to context, USD is expected to show some strength over NZD in fundamental and technical aspects.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has rejected from 0.7250 since the morning and the price action has already shown some evidence of bearish pressure in this pair. Currently, the price is below 0.7230 level and expected to progress much lower if the price's daily close remains below the 0.7230-50 level. As of the high-impact events today, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the pair and if the price remains bearish, it is expected that the price will move to a much lower ground towards 0.6950. On the other hand, if the price closes above 0.7250 in daily chart, we will be expecting a higher move towards 0.7500-50 area in the coming trading days. So, the daily close of today's candle is very crucial for this pair to predict the upcoming moves of this instrument.

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USD/CHF fundamental analysis for February 16, 2017

From last week, USD/CHF has showed some bullish impulsive movement which pushed the price over 1.00. Yesterday, after YELLEN testified the monetary policy there was some fall back on the USD side where the CHF gain advantage of it. On Tuesday, CHF was influenced by CPI report. The data of CPI came at 0.4% which was expected 0.3% and PPI reports at 0.0% which was expected -0.1%. The figures did have some positive affect on the currency but due to more strength on USD side CHF was unable to put much pressure to pull the price downward. Today, USD has some high-impact news releases on Building permits. It is expected an increase to 1.23M which was previously 1.21M; Philly FED Manufacturing Index which is expected decrease to 18.5 which was previously 23.6; and Unemployment claims report which is expected to be higher at 243K which previously was 234K. As there are some mixed expectations on today's high-impact events for USD, a good amount of volatility is expected in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has broken above the resistance area between 0.9950-1.00 which has now turned into a support area. Currently, the price is just above 1.00 and it is expected that 50 pips between 0.9950-1.00 area will hold the price. USD may regain strength after the high-impact events for USD. If we see the price rejecting the sellers from the support with a daily close above 1.0050, we can expect further bullish move for the coming trading days. On the other hand, if the price remains inside the support area with a daily close and in coming days breaks the support of 0.9950, we will be shifting our bullish bias to bearish and will look for selling from any retrace towards the level.analytics58a5a4cfe2b8a.jpg

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Trading plan for Gold for February 16, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The 4H chart presented here is indicative of clear 2-wave count potential. The first is being worked out between $1,180 and $1244.00 levels; it is an immediate boundary, being worked out. According to this wave count, strong support lies at $1,205.00, which is also Fibonacci 0.618 and immediate trendline support as depicted here. If the metal bounces from above levels, it is expected to rally towards $1,300.00 plus levels easily. The other wave count is possible if the prices break below $1,205.00 level and subsequently below the trendline support. In this cast the entire rally from $1,120.00 through $1,375.00 level would come into play and the prices may drop towards $1,170.00 level before it finds support. Please note that the above is also Fibonacci 0.618 support and 2-month trendline support also passes through. A short-term wave count is also presented below on an hourly chart. Supports are lined up to $1,205.00 and $1,180.00 levels respectively.

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Trading plan:

A medium-term trading strategy remains bullish on the counter; keep buying on dips. Levels to watch out for are $1,205.00 and $1,170.00 respectively. Alongside an aggressive short-term trading plan would be on the sell side.

Aggressive:

Short now, stop at $1,246.00, and target $1,205.00.

Conservative:

Flat for now. Look to buy at $1,205 and $1,170.00, stop at $1,121.00, and target $1,375.00 plus.

Fundamental outlook:

Short-term pressure shall remain on Gold due to USD bullish scenarios. But the metal is overall in the medium-term bullish trend which can be nullified only if the prices drop below $1,122.00 level.

Events to watch out are Building Permits in the USA, scheduled to be out at 08:30 AM EST. Forecast is positive.

Good luck!

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 16, 2017

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The USD/CAD pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

A bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recent established top).

The price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support for the recent bearish pullback.

That is why the recent bearish pullback toward 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) offered a valid BUY entry as expected in previous articles.

This week, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance bullish advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3550. Otherwise, the USD/CAD pair remains trapped within the current consolidation range (1.2970-1.3300).

On the other hand, DAILY closure below 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) will confirm a double-top pattern with projected bearish targets at 1.2860, 1.2730, and 1.2600.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Feburary 16, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to Further advance. The pair broke above a bearish trend line (since Feb 13) and accelerated on the upside, which confirmed a positive outlook. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as 0.7195 holds on the downside, look for a further rise to 0.7260 and even 0.7280 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7260 and the second one at 0.7280. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7170, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7150. The pivot point is at 0.7195.

Resistance levels: 0.7260, 0.7280 and 0.7310

Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7150, and 0.7105

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 16, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias above 114.30. the pair broke below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, it is trading below from the key resistance at 114.30, which should limit the upside potential. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Even though the continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. Therefore, as long as 114.30 holds as resistance, look for a further downsize to 113.20 and even 112.80 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 113.20. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 112.80. The pivot point stands at 114.30. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 114.70 and the second one at 115.

Resistance levels: 0.7220, 0.7240, and 0.7280

Support levels: 0.7140, 0.7120, and 0.7085

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 16, 2017

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USD/CHF is under pressure. The pair broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages and consolidated on the downside. In addition, the declining 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one and is playing a resistance role. The relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

The US Labor Department reported that consumer prices increased 0.6% on month (vs. +0.3% expected) and advanced 2.5% on year (vs. +2.4% YoY expected) in January. The Commerce Department announced that January retail sales grew 0.4% on month (vs. +0.1% expected). Meanwhile, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index jumped to +18.7 in February (vs. +7 expected) from +6.5 in January. On the other hand, industrial production declined 0.3% on month in January (vs. +0.0% expected).

In a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen maintained her stance pointed out in the day before that the Fed would raise interest rates at an upcoming policy meeting.

Below 1.0055 would expect a further drop to 1.000 and even 0.9980 in extension.

Resistance levels: 1.0075, 1.0095, and 1.0110

Support levels: 1.000, 0.9980, and 0.9950

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 16, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.4720. According to the 30M time frame, I found downward channel and potential bearish flag. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. If the price breaks the bearish flag, the target will be set at the price of 1.4660. The short-term trend is bearish.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4740

R2: 1.4770

R3: 1.4800

Support levels:

S1: 1.4660

S2: 1.4640

S3: 1.4600

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 16, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair remains below its ascending 20-period moving average, which stays below the 50-period one. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50 and is negatively oriented. The intraday bias is still negative: as long as 142.45 is not broken down, further rise is preferred with yesterday's high at 141.70 as the first target.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 141.70. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 141.25. The pivot point stands at 142.45. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 142.80 and the second one at 143.10.

Resistance levels: 142.80, 143.10, and 144.00

Support levels: 141.70,141.35, and 140.90

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 16, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair is in a bearish mode. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the price is expected to go further downwards, reaching the support lines at 1.0550 and 1.0500. The support line at 1.0550 has been tested and it could be tested again, as the price goes further downwards.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair reached the resistance level at 1.0100, and then pulled back. The price has been in an uptrend, and the pullback is supposed to be temporary, as it would eventually move above the resistance level at 1.0100. The next target for this or next week is the resistance level at 1.0200.

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GBP/USD: The bias on the Cable remains neutral. But a rise in a bearish movement is very likely and it may happen any day. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have some impact on the market.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is already in a bullish mode, though that is not something very strong. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. In spite of the weakness in the bullish effort, further bullish movement is expected and the supply level at 115.00 would be hit – the price could even move beyond that supply level.

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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument is quite choppy and directionless. It is better to stay away from the market until there would be a directional movement, which would happen before the end of this week or early next week. When the market starts trending seriously, it would be mostly in favor of the bulls.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 16, 2017

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On December 16, the price level of 0.6990 failed to apply enough bullish pressure.

Instead, bearish movement continued toward the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone (0.6860) which provided significant bullish rejection on December 23.

The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (Key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further bullish advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell zone) where bearish price action was expressed as anticipated.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 is needed to allow further bearish decline toward 0.7100 (Note the recent bearish DAILY candlesticks within the SELL zone).

On the other hand, the current bullish pullback toward 0.7250 should be considered for SELLING the NZD/USD pair.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 16, 2017

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010.

Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if the current monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0570-1.1400).

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0575 is needed to pursue this bearish scenario.

On November 14, bearish persistence below 1.0825 (Key-Level 2) allowed further decline toward 1.0570 (demand level) where evident bullish rejection was expressed on November 24.

Shortly after, the Fibonacci Level 50% (1.0825) constituted a recent supply level which offered a valid SELL entry on December 8.

Bearish persistence below the depicted demand level (1.0570) was expected to allow further decline toward 1.0220. However, significant bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 1.0340 on January 3.

Bullish persistence above 1.0600 allowed further bullish advance toward 1.0825-1.0850 (Fibonacci Level 50%) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were anticipated.

At the moment, the price level of 1.0570 stands as a prominent demand level to be watched for a valid bullish entry (note the bullish Head & Shoulders Pattern with Initial target at 1.0800).

Otherwise, further bearish decline can be executed towards 1.0400 if bearish breakdown below 1.0570 is achieved.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 16, 2017

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By the end of June a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (Fundamental Reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario toward the price levels around 1.2700 (Bearish projection target).

The GBP/USD pair has been trapped inside the depicted consolidation range (above 1.2700) until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why a bearish projection target was expected near 1.2020.

On October 25, bullish recovery was initiated around the price level of 1.2080. That is why a bullish pullback was executed toward 1.2700-1.2750.

Risky traders considered this bullish pullback toward the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 to be a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On January 16, a bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed around the demand level of 1.2000. That is why another bullish breakout above 1.2430 was initiated.

The next bullish target is located around 1.2750 where bearish rejection should be expected.

On the other hand, the next bearish destination would be located around 1.1200 when bearish momentum is resumed.

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Gold analysis for February 16, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,235.00. According to the 1H time frame, I found hidden bullish divergence and parabolic bottoming, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. Targets are set at the price of $1,244.00 and $1,255.30 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%).

Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,239.00

R2: 1,239.30

R3: 1,240.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,237.70

S2: 1,237.20

S3: 1,236.60

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 16/02/2017

Global macro overview for 16/02/2017:

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a build in crude oil inventories for the week ending February 10.The stockpile increased 9,527k barrels, bringing the total stockpile to 5,181k barrels. The number was lower than last month buildup of 13,830k, but bigger than market expectations of 3,700k. This is bigger than expected build-up in stockpiles reported by the EIA despite the recent production limits initiated by OPEC and non-OPEC countries from January 2017 amid a global supply glut. The stockpiles, however, are far away from being top full, but the pace of build-up might start to be a litter worrying.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H1 time frame. The news did not really change to overall picture as the market still trades inside of the trading range between the levels of 52.72 and 53.50. Any rally higher is being stopped by the bear camp, so the price is still trading below the dashed trendline as well. Only a sustained break out above the level of 53.50 would change the bias to more bullish, otherwise the market will stay in the range for some more time.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 16, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is trading in an uptrend channel, the market showed signs of instability.
  • According to the previous events, the trend is still trading between the levels of 0.9974 and 1.0101.
  • The daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.0101 and 0.9974 respectively.
  • The market moved from its bottom at 0.9974 and continued to rise towards the top of 1.0045.
  • The current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, the resistance will be set at the point of 1.0158.
  • If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0158, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.0158
  • Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet.
  • Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.0158 with the first target at 1.0050.
  • If the trend breaks the support level of 1.0050, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.9974 in order to test the daily support 1.
  • Generally, we expect a large range between the levels of 0.9974 and 1.0158. So, the major suport is seen at 0.9974.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 16, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair movement was clear as it took place in an uptrend channel for a while. The trend showed signs of a bullish market. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7191 and 0.7283. The daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7283 respectively. Hence, the NZD/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.7191; to form a bullish channel. Besides, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 0.7283, while immediate resistance is found at 0.7255. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 0.7255 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7255, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7255. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.7283. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.7191 with the first target at the level of 0.7255; and continue towards 0.7283. On the other hand, if the NZD/USD pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 0.7283; the market will decline further to the level of 0.7255 to set around it for a while. Generally, we still prefer a bearish market in coming hours.
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Global macro overview for 16/02/2017

Global macro overview for 16/02/2017:

The Australian January employment data surprised the market participants. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 5.7% from 5.8% a month ago and the employment change dropped from 16.3k to 13.5k (9.7k was the expected figure for the last month). This is rather a disappointing update on the labor market because there is the only small improvement in the unemployment rate over the past 12 months. The gap between part-time and full-time employment does not look good and it might suggest the labor market has lost steam. Nevertheless, the leading indicators of employment continue to suggest somewhat better jobs growth over coming months, so the Reserve Bank of Australia should remain on hold regarding the interest rate decision.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the daily time frame after the data were released. The price is trading just below the long-term technical resistance at the level of 0.7777 in overbought market conditions. Moreover, the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator indicates a corrective cycle coming soon. In that case, the most important level for the bulls is the technical support at the level of 0.7606. Any sustained violation of this level might lead to bigger corrective move.

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Trading plan for 16/02/2017

Trading plan for 16/02/2017:

There will not be many economic releases during the European and American trading sessions. The major fundamental events for today are: Building Permits and Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims from the US. Later on the Retail Sales data from New Zealand will be released as well.

01:30 pm GMT - Building Permits and Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims from the US

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that the home building index decreased for a second time, but the sentiment still remains elevated. Today, the market participants expect a slight increase from 1,210k permits to 1,230k permits. Today's strong data on housing starts is expected to inch higher for January. The market participants expect a rise to 1.227 million units (seasonally adjusted) and this would be a three-month high figure, but the outlook for another month of generally flat activity will be hard to shake if the estimate is accurate.

The Initial Jobless Claims data released at the same time as the housing data are expected to increase as well from 234k to 243k. Nevertheless, the US labour market has been expanding every month for over six years now and there is no sign of this trend to reverse soon.

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at H1 time frame before the news is released. Better than expected data will generally result in US Dollar appreciation, so the technical resistance should hold at the level of 1.0632 and market should reverse. Overbought market conditions support this view and the higher time frame trend is still bearish.

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09:45 pm GMT - Retail Sales from New Zealand

Retail Sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. For the last quarter of 2016 the global investors are expecting a slight increase on sales from 0.9% last quarter to 1.1% this quarter. The uptick in the retail sales might suggest a positive consumer sentiment and the overall positive outlook for the economy.

Let's take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The recent market rally was capped at the technical resistance at the level of 0.7242 and now is trading sideways. In a case of retail sales data will beat the expectations there is a chance of a further spike up towards the next technical resistance at the level of 0.7278. Nevertheless, the worse than expected data, the price should fall out of the horizontal range and move towards the next support at the level of 0.7197.

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Market snapshot - Gold is bouncing from technical support

The yellow metal rally was capped at the level of $1,241 and since then the price has been trading sideways. The technical support at the level of $1,220 was tested and the price bounced back up. Nevertheless, the current market conditions are overbought at the daily time frame and there is a clear bearish divergence suggested by the momentum indicator. This is why all buy orders should be very careful at this point of time as some bigger correction might be just around the corner.

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Technical analysis of USDX for February 16, 2017

The Dollar index is pulling back as we expected in our latest analysis. Although the price has broken out of the bearish channel and we might have completed a wave 4 low at 99.24, the bearish Head and Shoulders pattern should not be overlooked. A break below the neck line will be a very bearish sign. Otherwise a higher low will be a bullish sign.

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Red line - support (broken)

Blue lines - projected price path ahead bullish scenario

Black line - bearish scenario

The Dollar index is pulling back towards cloud support. I expect to see a big test of short-term support around the 100 level. If the bulls manage to hold this level and bounce, a higher low will be a very bullish signal for the Dollar index. If, however, sellers prevail and break below this year's low at 99.24, we should expect heavy selling to follow.

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Blue area - Head and shoulders pattern

Green trend line - long-term support

Black line - Head and Shoulders neckline

The Dollar index got rejected at the weekly tenkan-sen (red line indicator). This was expected. The pullback is now very important to hold above the black neckline for the bulls. This support area of 99.20-99 is very important as we also find the weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) there.

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Technical analysis of gold for February 16, 2017

Gold made a very bullish reversal yesterday. Despite falling towards $1,216, support was briefly broken but buyers stepped back in despite Dollar strength and supported the price. Moreover, the price continued higher and closed above $1,228-33 area where it is trading now.

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Red line - resistance (broken)

Black line - support

Gold has broken again above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) resistance. The price has also broken out of the descending triangle pattern. It made a big reversal at noon when it was trading around $1,216. Gold is very resilient and all pullbacks are bought and heavily supported. We might see a back test of the broken red trendline but overall I expect Gold to push towards $1,280-$1,320 soon.

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Black line - long-term resistance

The weekly candle is shaping up to be a very bullish one as we can see a long lower tail shadow suggesting that the price is heavily supported and pushed higher despite selling pressures. The price is holding inside the weekly Kumo (cloud) and is testing the weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). I expect gold breaks above it and will move towards the upper cloud boundary and the long-term trendline resistance.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Feb 16, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction and Italian Trade Balance. The US will release the economic data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Mortgage Delinquencies, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Building Permits, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0673.

Strong Resistance:1.0666.

Original Resistance: 1.0656.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0646.

Target Inner Area: 1.0621.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0596.

Original Support: 1.0586.

Strong Support: 1.0576.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0569.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feb 16, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any Economic Data's but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Natural Gas Storage, Mortgage Delinquencies, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Building Permits. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.39.

Resistance. 2: 114.17.

Resistance. 1: 113.94.

Support. 1: 113.67.

Support. 2: 113.44.

Support. 3: 113.22.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for February 16, 2017

The index is still alive in a bullish bias above the 200 SMA at H1 chart, but the resistance zone of 101.43 continues to cap further gains. However, the fact that USDX still trades above that moving average is giving us an idea about what's the coming path for the index, at least in the short-term. If that barrier to the upside gives up, then a rally to test the 102.39 is expected to happen.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 101.43 / 102.38

H1 chart's support levels: 100.01 / 98.98

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 100.01, take profit is at 98.98 and stop loss is at 101.03.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 16, 2017

The pair was trading in a bearish tone during Wednesday's session, consolidating its price action below the 200 SMA at H1 chart and that should be giving us a hint of further declines in the short-term. If GBP/USD manages to break below the support zone of 1.2414, then we can expect another bearish advance toward 1.2360. MACD indicator is entering the positive territory, favoring to a possible recovery in the Cable.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2480 / 1.2561

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2414 / 1.2360

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2480, take profit is at 1.2561 and stop loss is at 1.2398.

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Daily Video Analysis on EUR/JPY - 15th February 2017

We take an in-depth look on EUR/JPY to see if there are any trading opportunities available for us to trade off and generate potential profits from. We explain clearly how we use a range of analytical approaches from Fibonacci retracements to Fibonacci extensions, price action and oscillators to determine such trading opportunities.

Join us and learn how to find good trading opportunities through technical analysis!

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USDCAD fundamental analysis for February 15, 2017

The USD/CAD pair is going through a good amount of volatility after breaking the channel support below 1.32. Today reports on CPI and Retail Sales in the US were issued whereas at the same time data on Manufacturing Sales in Canada was issued as well. Volatility was observed after CPI came up with 0.6% which was expected at 0.3% and the figure of Retails Sales was 0.4% which was expected at 0.1%. On the other hand, data on Manufacturing Sales in Canada was unchanged with previous 2.3% which was forecast to be lower at 1.4%. Overall, USD had a good amount of advantage over CAD, with a good surplus in the CPI and Retail sales which was greater than unchanged Manufacturing Sales report.

Now let us look at the technical view, the market is currently in a corrective structure without any definitive breakout on each side. If the market breaks below 1.30, it is expected that it will reach 1.2500-50 area. On the other hand, if the market breaks above 1.3220 we will expect a bullish move towards the channel resistance. Now, there is no specific directional bias present in the market to follow until the price breaks either the support or resistance.

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EUR/JPY remains bearish at major resistance

We remain bearish below 121.09 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to 119.65 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal support, and recent swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) has reacted off our 92% resistance level perfectly and continues to see resistance there.

Sell below 121.09. Stop loss is at 121.86. Take profit is at 119.65.

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EUR/USD turns bearish for a push down

The price remains under heavy downside pressure below 1.0585 resistance (pullback resistance, descending resistance) and we expect the price to make a further push down to 1.0450 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees a descending resistance line holding the price down.

Sell below 1.0585. Stop loss is at 1.0660. Take profit is at 1.0450.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for February 15, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair has been trading with clear positivity since yesterday to breach 113.97 level and settle above it. It turns the intraday and short-term track to the upside. It is heading towards testing potential to test the level of 118.00 level in the upcoming period. Therefore, the bullish trend will be preferred for today, unless breaking 113.97 level and holding below it. If this level is broken, it will push the price to target levels that begin at 113.05 and extend to 111.60. The expected trading range for today is between 113.50 support and 115.50 resistance.

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