Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 15/11/2019:

The bulls are fighting back

The GBP/USD pair has moved a little bit higher towards the technical resistance as the bulls are still trying to move up towards it. Liquidity is drying up again, but the momentum is neutral and just slightly positive despite the oversold conditions, so the next leg will likely be down again. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2705 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2939.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3033

WR2 - 1.2987

WR1 - 1.2853

Weekly Pivot - 1.2816

WS1 - 1.2681

WS2 - 1.2633

WS3 - 1.2516

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3000 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 15/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the 61%Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.0994 and the bounce from this level made a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. The bulls are fighting back and do not give up that easily, but bears are still in full control of the market and if the 61% Fibonacci retracement will not make the price to bounce higher, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.0940. Please notice, the level of 1.0999 is the key short-term technical support for the price as well, so some kind of a bounce should be expected from this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1256

WR2 - 1.1211

WR1 - 1.1097

Weekly Pivot - 1.1053

WS1 - 1.0934

WS2 - 1.0895

WS3 - 1.0778

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 15. The absence of sellers below 1.1000 led to an upward correction

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's data on producer prices in the United States made it possible to remain bearish in the EUR/USD pair, however, the absence of sellers below the level of 1.1000 led to an upward correction at the end of the US session. At the moment, buyers will focus on support at 1.1010, in which I recommend to open long positions when forming a false breakout. Good data on inflation in the eurozone may contribute to the euro's growth above the resistance of 1.1036, and consolidation at this level will lead to the continuation of the upward correction to the area of highs of 1.1058 and 1.1081, where I recommend profit taking. If there is no activity among buyers near 1.1010, I recommend that you open long positions in EUR/USD immediately to rebound from the weekly low of 1.0990.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers will not rush to return to the market, as a small correction is not enough for large players who failed to keep the pair below the level of 1.1000 yesterday. Only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1036, along with weak eurozone inflation data, will be a signal to open short positions in the euro in order to fall to a support of 1.1010. However, a more important goal for sellers will be to close the day below this range, which will maintain a downward trend next week and lead to an update of the lows of 1.0990 and 1.0960. In the EUR/USD growth scenario above the resistance of 1.1036, it is best to count on short positions after updating the high of 1.1058, or sell immediately for a rebound from a larger level of 1.1081.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the likely formation of an upward correction in the pair.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the region of 1.1040, a breakthrough of which will provide the pair with a new influx of buyers. In case of decline, it is best to consider long positions after updating the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.1000.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 15 - 2019

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EUR/JPY pushed lower towards the limit near 119.17 (the low has been seen at 119.23). We are looking for a break above minor resistance at 119.80 as it indicates that red wave ii finally has completed and red wave iii higher towards 123.58 is developing.

The support in the 119.17 - 119.23 area will be able to protect the downside for the break above minor resistance at 119.80. A break above 120.25 will confirm that red wave iii is developing.

R3: 120.64

R2: 120.25

R1: 119.80

Pivot: 119.57

S1: 119.23

S2: 119.17

S3: 119.00

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 119.80 and use the same stop at 119.00

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EURUSD. In the swamp of the flat: the German economy kept the pair in the range

The bears of the EUR/USD pair could not overcome the support level of 0.0980, which corresponds to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart. Buyers won the 10th figure, although the price growth is limited.

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Macroeconomic reports helped the European currency: traders saw the first signs of a recovery in the German economy. Pan-European GDP growth data also came out better than expected, complementing the fundamental picture of the day. In turn, the dollar feels insecure, despite Jerome Powell's encouraging rhetoric. The rise in US inflation and the producer price index did not impress dollar bulls: China, or rather, US-Chinese trade negotiations, remains in the spotlight. The failure of the negotiation process could lead to a decrease in the Federal Reserve interest rate at the beginning of next year. Perhaps this is the only factor that can force members of the Fedto return to this issue again. That is why the dollar index retreated from its local highs, reflecting the devaluation of the currency throughout the market.

In other words, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade flat, within the wide-range price range of 1.0980-1.1090. Having reached the bottom of this range, the pair jumped and headed towards the middle of the 10th figure. The formal reason for the correctional growth, as mentioned above, was the European macroeconomic reports. It is worth noting that the European currency reacted rather weakly to German data, which turned out to be much better than forecasts. In annual terms, German GDP grew immediately by 1% (the best result for the last year), although experts expected a decrease of 0.1%. The German economy avoided the recession, and this fact may serve as a signal for the restoration of the European economy. By the way, the pan-European level of GDP also showed positive dynamics. In annual terms, the indicator remained at 1.2%, while the market expected a decline to 1.1%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator also remained at the level of the second quarter: + 0.2%.

It is also worth recalling the latest reports from the ZEW Institute. The current situation index remained deep in the negative area, but still moved away from 9-year lows reached in October. But the index of expectations (moods) in the business environment has shown significant growth. This indicator reached the level of -22.8 points in October, while it recovered to -2.1 this month - this is the best result since April of this year. A similar pan-European indicator showed a similar trend: -1 point in November after a decline to -23.5 in October.

According to experts from the ZEW Institute, these figures reflect the optimism of European investors regarding the prospects of Brexit and the conclusion of a trade deal between the United States and China. Big business has also expressed confidence that Donald Trump will not impose duties on European cars and auto parts.

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Whether such optimism is premature or not is an open question. And while Brexit's prospects depend on the outcome of early Parliament elections to the House of Commons, the prospects for a deal between the United States and China depend on a wider range of factors. Once again, the parties cannot find a common denominator on key issues. Donald Trump made it clear that he was not ready to satisfy the ultimatum of Beijing (the abolition of September duties and the refusal of December). In turn, China said it was not going to commit itself to the annual acquisition of US $50 billion worth of agricultural products. At this stage, the parties could not find a compromise, after which the negotiations actually stopped. Beijing officials say that a deal without specifying the exact amount will provide them with some flexibility in subsequent decisions — for example, if the Americans backtrack. Another escalation of violence in Hong Kong may also jeopardize the negotiation process - according to some representatives of China, Hong Kong protesters secretly support or even finance Washington.

Such a news flow puts pressure on the dollar, especially after a wave of optimism about the prospects for US-China negotiations. The US currency retreats, allowing EUR/USD bulls to go for a correction. But the buyers are not in a hurry to seize the opportunity. Traders are not sure about the euro, even after good data from Germany. The German economy escaped a technical recession, but the industrial recession continued in the country, and this fact is alarming.

In other words, EUR/USD buyers need more signals confirming the recovery of the European economy. Until then, the pair will be forced to trade in the flat, within the framework of a price fork of 1.0980-1.1090: these marks correspond to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart and the middle line of this indicator, which coincides with the Kijun line -sen on the same timeframe.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 15,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as Trade Balance, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and Italian Trade Balance will be released. The US will unveil such economic data as Business Inventories m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Import Prices m/m, Import Prices m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Core Retail Sales m/m, and Retail Sales m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1080. Strong Resistance: 1.1074. Original Resistance: 1.1063. Inner Sell Area: 1.1052.Target Inner Area: 1.1026. Inner Buy Area: 1.1000.Original Support: 1.0989. Strong Support: 1.0978. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0972. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, November 15,2019

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Japan is set to issue the revised Industrial Production m/m report. The US will release such economic data as Business Inventories m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Import Prices m/m, Import Prices m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Core Retail Sales m/m, and Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPYpair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:109.15. Resistance. 2:108.95. Resistance. 1:108.73. Support. 1:108.47. Support. 2:108.26. Support. 3:108.40. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 15, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, due to new difficulties in relations between the United States and China (China is resisting the signing of a clearly unprofitable trade agreement for it), investors chose to close their positions due to the uncertain economic data for Europe and the US that are coming out today, right before strong technical support (1.0985). The price exceeded the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator showed a reversal, but these are not yet sufficient conditions for significant growth, the situation is typical for correction. With the return of the price under the MACD line, the next wave of activity in euro sales is likely. We do not expect a correction above the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1073).

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line entered the growth zone, while the price remains below the MACD line. The exit of the price above the line (1.1035) will allow the euro to develop a correction. This can be prevented by economic indicators; The eurozone trade balance for September is expected today to fall from 20.3 billion euros to 18.7 billion, US retail sales are projected to grow by 0.1% in October from -0.3% in September. Concern is caused by industrial production in the US for October, the forecast is -0.4%.

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So, after the correction is over, we are waiting for a new round of euro decline. Overcoming the first support at 1.0985 opens the way to the second goal 1.0925.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 15, 2019

GBP/USD

Amid the general weakening of the dollar, the British pound gained 32 points yesterday. Wide-range consolidation between Fibonacci levels of 23.6% and 0.0% at 245 points continues. The Marlin oscillator is being kept below the border with the zone of positive values, this is a sign of the near completion of growth. With the overcoming of the signal level of 1.2768, the 1.2703 target opens, then we wait for the quotation at 1.2608 - this is the 38.2% Fibonacci level which the MACD line also strives for.

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On a four-hour chart, the price consolidates above the lines of balance and MACD, Marlin in the growth trend zone. The price may modify the growth line to Fibonacci levels of 61.8% (1.2896) and 76.4% (1.2926). An increase in the decline is likely after overcoming the support of the MACD line and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% (1.2817).

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 15, 2019

USD/JPY

The dollar was falling for five consecutive sessions against the yen, a correction was outlined for the pair only this morning. But if it does not take shape with the exit over the line of the red price channel (1.0867), then the price will consolidate under this line and the decline will continue with the immediate goal of 107.77. The double divergence on the Marlin oscillator has finally formed, the signal line of the oscillator in the negative trend zone.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is below the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is decreasing, the general trend is only going down. Consolidating the price over the MACD line (108.86) will be able to develop, under other favorable circumstances, an increase with the immediate goal of 109.30 and if the level is surpassed to 109.86.

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The main scenario assumes a price fall to 107.77 - MACD's line and support of the price channel on daily.

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USD/SEK reversed perfectly off resistance, potential for further drop!

Price is reversing strongly off our first resistance and we are expecting a further drop to our first support level.

Entry: 9.75275

50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 9.51661

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

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Further drop on AUD/USD

AUDUSD further drop expected below 0.68245.

Entry: 0.68094

Horizontal graphical overlap

Take Profit : 0.6770

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 200% Fibonacci Extension

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USD/CHF to bounce from 1st support, potential rally!

Entry: 0.9875

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 0.9983

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci extension

76.4% Fibonacci retracement

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#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs EUR / GBP - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 15, 2019 APLs

How will the flat end? Here's a comprehensive analysis of the #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and EUR / GBP movement options for November 15, 2019 on the Minuette operational scale fork.

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US dollar Index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from November 15, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 98.45 at the lower boundary of ISL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 98.25 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel.

During the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 98.45), the movement of the dollar index will continue in the equilibrium zone (98.45 - 98.80 - 99.17) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the other hand, the breakdown of support level of 98.25 together with the initial SSL line (98.17) of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the development of the #USDX movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel (98.25 - 97.97 - 97.70) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (97.55) Minuette operational scale forks.

Marking up #USDX movement options from November 15, 2019 is shown in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from November 15, 2019 will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1000 (lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.0965 (upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork)

With the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1000 on ISL61.8 Minuette, the development of the movement of the single European currency will begin to occur in the equilibrium zone (1.1000 - 1.1015 - 1.1030) of the Minuette operational scale fork, and with the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (1.1030) will make the continuation of the development of the upward movement of this currency instrument to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1070 - 1.1000 - 1.1135) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 1.0695) will confirm the development of the EUR / USD movement within the equilibrium zone (1.0965 - 1.0920 - 1.0875) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

SImilarly, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement from November 15, 2019 will also depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line (1.2880 - 1.2860 - 1.2835) of the Minuette operational scale fork. Look at the movement details on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (resistance level of 1.2880) - an option to achieve GBP / USD boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.2915 - 1.2950 - 1.2985) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of updating maximum 1.3012.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 1.2835), the downward movement of the currency of Her Majesty can be extended to the objectives - initial line Minuette the SSL (1.2810) - the local minimum 1.2768 - Control line Minuette LTL (1.2760) - the equilibrium zone (1.2730 - 1.2635 - 1.2540)of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

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Euro vs Great Britain pound

The development of the movement of the "main" cross-instrument EUR / GBP from November 15, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.8580 - 0.8530 - 0.8480) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The details are shown in the animation chart.

A combined breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 0.8580) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork and the start line SSL Minuette (0.8590) will direct the development of the upward movement EUR / GBP to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.8640 - 0.8675 - 0.8710) with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL Minuette line (0.8725) and the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (0.8760) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the support level of 0.8480 at the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it possible to continue the downward movement of the "main" cross-instrument to the targets: reaction line RL100.0 Minuette (0.8425) - control line LTL (0.8340) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the details of the EUR / GBP movement on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Dollar rejoices, yen grieves: USD strengthening is not far off

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The Japanese currency, paired with the market leader US dollar, does not feel very confident. The yen showed some growth this week, however, there were no significant shifts in the USD/JPY pair. Many experts expect the greenback to strengthen against the yen.

According to analysts, an increase in Treasury bond yields stimulates demand for US government debt from Japanese investors. On Wednesday, November 13, bond yields, which showed volatility, slightly stabilized and raised the yen. Note that earlier the Japanese currency strengthened due to a surge in the yield of long bonds of Japan

The US currency, unlike the Japanese, feels great. Most analysts agree that the greenback will strengthen its position both in the short and long term. The pep was boosted by a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. According to the Fed chief, the US economy is on the rise for the eleventh consecutive year, and the unemployment rate in the United States is at a half-century low, which cannot but inspire optimism. The greenback uses this, not missing the opportunity for growth.

The only risks to the US economy, according to J. Powell, are the low growth rates of the global economy and an impressive level of public debt. At the statements of the head of the regulator, the dollar strengthened against leading world currencies, including the yen.

The strengthening of the greenback in relation to the "yen is also predicted in the large investment company Nissay Asset Management. The company's currency strategists are confident that at the beginning of next year, namely in March – April, the USD exchange rate will reach 112 yen per one unit of American currency.

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Nissay Asset Management experts consider the main reason for this sharp rise to be a slowdown in the reduction of interest rates. Recall, the Fed recently decided to take a break in the process of lowering the key rate, and analysts find it difficult to answer how long it will last.

Experts believe that the increase in the yield of treasury bonds is another important reason for the strengthening of the greenback in relation to the yen. They act as catalysts for demand for US public debt from Japanese investors. According to preliminary estimates, when the yield on 10-year US bonds approaches 2% per annum, Japanese traders will increase demand for this asset. At the moment, the yield on 10-year bonds is 1.916% per annum and has continued to increase steadily since mid-October 2019. It is possible that investors in Japan will buy treasuries with less hedging of currency risk. These processes actively stimulate the strengthening of the US currency, experts emphasize.

Currently, the USD/JPY pair is demonstrating stability. The pair was near the level of 108.75 on Thursday morning, November 14. Strong volatility was not observed.

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After a while, the USD/JPY pair allowed themselves to slide to extremely low levels. At the moment, the pair is trading within the range of 108.65-108.66, causing concern for investors who counted on long-term stability.

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Nissay Asset Management believes that in the near future the USD/JPY pair will run in the range of 107–110 yen per US dollar. Experts say that support between levels 107 and 108 will be quite powerful. At the same time, analysts admit that the pair may not have enough drivers to grow to 115 yen per 1 unit of the US currency.

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GBP/USD: the pound continues to ignore the economy, focusing on politics

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Although UK statistics continue to disappoint, the pound is in no hurry to throw a white flag. Apparently, like UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, it sincerely believes in the victory of the Tories in the upcoming elections. If the British currency did not respond to strong data before, the question is, why should it now be hypersensitive to weak indicators, if the political landscape in the country has not changed much?

In July-September, the British economy expanded by 0.3% in quarterly terms, not reaching the forecast of 0.4%. On an annualized basis, the indicator increased by 1%, demonstrating the lowest growth rate since 2010.

In the third quarter, the number of working Britons fell by 58 thousand, to 32.753 million, which was the highest decline since the summer of 2015. The number of vacancies has declined in annual terms at the highest rate since the financial crisis.

In October, consumer prices in the country increased by 1.5% in annual terms, noting the worst dynamics since November 2016.

Last month, retail sales decreased by 0.1% compared to September. The annual rate increased by 3.1% against the forecast of 3.7%. Data turned out to be worse than market expectations.

Obviously, the protracted Brexit process is having a negative effect on the British economy. Therefore, it is not surprising that at the last meeting of the Bank of England, two out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee spoke in favor of lowering the interest rate.

However, it is unlikely that the BoE will weaken the monetary policy in December. Most likely, the central bank will prefer to evaluate the results of early elections to the national Parliament and only after that will begin to act. Therefore, forecasts for the pound are still based on the political factor.

According to a consensus estimate by Bloomberg analysts, if the Conservatives confidently win the upcoming elections, the GBP/USD pair will rise to 1.34. The probability of such an outcome is estimated at 40%. At the same time, the chances of unconditional victorious Laborites, according to experts, are still extremely low (5%), but if it does happen, then amid investors fleeing from the country, concerned about the nationalization policy, the pound could fall to $1.23.

According to recent polls, Conservatives are ready to support 42% of voters, while Labour - 28%.

The dovish rhetoric of the Bank of England allowed the bears on GBP/USD to carry out a counterattack. However, the bullish trend is still in force. Therefore, the statement by Nigel Faraj that the Brexit Party headed by him will not compete with the Tories in the upcoming elections, threw the pound to $1.2900.

"Brexit's very low risks without a deal should help the pound keep its recent profit against the US dollar and trade in the $1.2600-1.3200 range by the end of this year," UBS strategists said.

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GBP/USD. Results of the day. UK retail sales have declined. Tusk calls for "fighting for Brexit"

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 84p - 54p - 112p - 58p - 41p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 70p (average).

The British pound on Thursday, November 14, stood for most of the day in one place as part of the flat, which we have already written about several times. Even a slight growth during the US trading session cannot indicate the completion of the correction, especially since it is rather difficult to say exactly what caused this surge of emotions among traders. Traders again ignored weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK today, although it was expected that it would finally please traders. However, these hopes were not destined to come true. Retail sales decreased by 0.1% in October compared with the previous month and added 3.1% in annual terms, which is much worse than forecasted. Thus, the pound has not received support, traders just once again did not pay any attention to macroeconomic statistics. But quotes increased in the afternoon, however, this movement can end very quickly, like the previous surge, based on information about the creation of a coalition in the elections between the parties of Boris Johnson and Nigel Faraj.

In fact, there can only be two reasons for a sharp, but not strong fall in the US currency. We covered the first in sufficient detail in an article on the EUR/USD currency pair - this is a possible escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China and another "dead end" in negotiations on a trade agreement between the countries. The second is Jerome Powell's new congressional statement, this time to the budget committee. However, what could Jerome Powell say such that it would cause a fall in the US currency? It is unlikely that today he hinted at a reduction in the key rate, when after the day before in the same Congress he had almost openly declared that the monetary policy of the Fed would not require intervention in the near future. We will learn about this later, but in any case, we do not believe that the Fed chief said anything extraordinary. Instead of guessing at the coffee grounds about what Powell said, we suggest focusing again on the question "Why do market participants stubbornly ignore macroeconomic statistics from the UK?" If in the case of the euro currency, we said that there was a situation where there is no good reason for new sales or purchases, then in the case of the British pound, this does not work. The GBP/USD pair is far enough from its lows, so traders this week could calmly get rid of the pound again on the basis of all the same failed macroeconomic information that we have witnessed. If the markets really now pay attention only to news of a political nature and on the Brexit topic, then we can explain the complete calm on the pound/dollar pair. After all, there is no news and cannot be any news on the topics identified above. Brexit paused, political parties getting ready for re-election. Parliament dissolved. What kind of news could there be?

Meanwhile, European Council President Donald Tusk called on the British people to continue to fight against Brexit. He said that if Britain exits the European Union, it will become an "outsider and minor player" on the world stage. Donald Tusk leaves his post on December 1 after Mario Draghi and Jean Claude Juncker. If earlier he had to maintain an official position on the Brexit issue, now he can speak more informally. The fact that the EU wants to keep Britain in its composition is not a secret for anyone. In fact, the European Union continues to fight to keep Britain in its composition, not giving it what could lead to the approval by the British Parliament of the deal on Brexit. Well, it all comes down again to the Parliament elections on December 12, from which the future of both Great Britain and the European Union will depend.

The technical picture of the currency pair shows only a full flat, despite the upward movement in the US trading session. Bollinger Bands narrowed to an absolute low and directed to the side. The volatility of the pair decreased to the level of 70 points a day, which is formally an average value, but this is a rather low value for the pound. The pair returned to the area of the Ichimoku cloud, so the uncertainty with the direction of movement became even greater. Thus, from our point of view, this is not the most favorable time to open any position, especially given the complete ignoring by investors of the fundamental background.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair finally turned into a sideways movement. Thus, traders are advised to wait until the completion of a flat and the resumption of trend movement. However, it should be recognized that a flat may last several days and several weeks if traders continue to wait for news on Brexit and on the elections to the British Parliament.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD: devastating labor market data and the obstinate China

The Australian dollar is paired with the US currency demonstrates a downward impulse. The aussie is getting cheaper across the market after the release of disappointing data on the growth of the labor market in the country. Almost all the components of the release came out in the red zone, while updating multi-month lows. This release is important in itself, but in this case it must also be viewed through the prism of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Chinese data on industrial production were also disappointed. Even the general weakening of the US dollar did not help the AUD/USD bears- the aussie shows a rapid decline, which may end in the area of annual lows.

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Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the greenback is also getting cheaper because of China - apparently, the historical trade deal was again in jeopardy. But this fact is as disastrous for the Australian currency as it is for the US dollar. We'll talk about the prospects for a trade war a little lower, but let's start with the Australian macro statistics.

The labor market report really turned out to be devastating. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.3% (against the forecast of 5.2%), and the employment rate collapsed into the negative area. Moreover, this indicator has updated three-year lows - the number of employees fell by 19 thousand. The negative dynamics in October was demonstrated by both the component of full employment and the component of part-time employment. Let me remind you that the number of employees increased by only 16 thousand in September - but mainly due to the full-time component. This fact made it possible for the aussie to stay afloat, as regular positions require higher salaries. However, the October results disappointed "on all fronts."

But more recently, the Australian currency showed optimism. The results of the last RBA meeting were in favor of the aussie, after which the AUD/USD pair impulsively jumped to around 0.6930. Contrary to pessimistic forecasts, the RBA announced that the previously taken measures to reduce rates "are already bearing fruit." According to RBA members, easing monetary policy parameters supported the growth of employment and income, stimulating inflation indicators to return to the target range.

Today's data served as a kind of refutation of this thesis. It is worth noting that, following optimistic estimates, the Australian regulator did not rule out further easing of monetary policy. RBA members noted that they could reduce the rate in the foreseeable future "in the event of such a need." It is obvious that a decline in key economic parameters amid a possible escalation of the trade war will again bring the issue of rate cuts back on the agenda.

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There are certain prerequisites for this. Indeed, in addition to disappointing statistics, negative rumors have come to the market today regarding the prospects for US-Chinese dialogue. According to an influential publication of the Wall Street Journal, Beijing is not going to make a commitment under the deal to annually purchase US agricultural products for a certain amount (namely, $50 billion). According to newspaper sources, the parties could not find a compromise at this stage of negotiations, after which the dialogue actually stalled. The Chinese quite reasonably believe that a deal without specifying the exact amount will allow them to act "more flexibly." In addition, in this case, Beijing remains the lever of pressure on Washington if the Americans backtrack.

Now it's clear why Trump recently voiced a rather tough stance towards China. Speaking at the Economic Club in New York, he threatened Beijing with new fees if the parties did not sign the deal. He added that the White House would agree to a trade agreement only if it would be beneficial to the United States.

After that, the Australian dollar was under additional pressure. Which is understandable, because we are talking about the risk of resuming a large-scale trade war, which will aggravate the already difficult situation in the world economy. Australia is at the forefront in this context, since China is the country's main trading partner, and the further economic recession of China will have a strong negative impact on key Australian indicators. Moreover, the head of the RBA in one of his interviews separately focused on this, not excluding the option of lowering the interest rate. Therefore, in this case, we are talking not only about the prospects for US-Chinese relations, but also about the prospects for Australian monetary policy.

Given the prevailing fundamental background, we can assume that the AUD/USD pair will continue the downward trend, at least to the level of 0.6750 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). If the bears gain a foothold under this target, the next target of the downward movement will be the mark of 0.6660 - this is the area of annual lows that coincides with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator already on the weekly chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Evening review of EURUSD 11/14/2019

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As you can see on the chart (picture at 12:40 London time) - the euro's fall nearly stopped, the level of 1.1000 became a serious obstacle for sellers.

On the whole, it's very calm, and the choice of direction continues - both options are possible, and a failure in the direction of 1.0900 - and growth.

We are ready to buy from 1.1045.

The level for selling so far is only 1.0880.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fidelity warns: Get out of the US market. S&P 500

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You see the monthly chart of the main US stock index - S&P 500.

Here you can see the entire growth cycle of the US market - from the lows of winter-spring 2008-2009, all ten years of growth.

We are at the peak.

Fidelity Investments Fund compellingly warns investors of the high risk of significant losses that remain in the stock market now.

The chart above is current, now it looks that way. Prices at such heights.

The potential for further growth is unlikely to be high.

But even if there is growth potential, do this: wait for a strong correction, clearly visible on the monthly chart. Think about strategic purchases only then.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD and GBPUSD: German economy walks on thin ice. The pound almost ignored weak retail sales in the UK

Recession, stagnation, crisis in the economy - these are the terms that are increasingly used by economists when talking about Germany and its future prospects. The locomotive of the European economy, apparently, continues to slow down, and the small growth that was recorded in the third quarter of this year is far from being a cause for pride. Although the recession in Germany was delayed, it is unlikely that it will be possible to cancel it in the current situation in the economy during its stagnation.

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Basically, the prospects are overshadowed by numerous political and economic risks - starting with Brexit and the US trade war with the eurozone and ending with the introduction of negative interest rates from the European Central Bank. The only thing that keeps the German economy afloat is the strong domestic demand, which is clearly lacking, as export problems continue to have a serious impact on the industry.

According to today's report by the Federal Bureau of Statistics Destatis, Germany's GDP grew by 0.1% in the third quarter of this year, compared with the second quarter. Economists had expected GDP to fall by 0.1%. A larger decline in Germany's GDP for the second quarter by 0.2%, rather than 0.1%, also does not add optimism. Germany's GDP grew by 1% compared with the same period last year, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. Adjusted for inflation, growth was only 0.5%.

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Today, a report of the European statistical agency Eurostat was also published, which indicated that the eurozone GDP grew in the third quarter, but the data fully coincided with expectations. The weak growth of the European economy justifies the recent actions of the European Central Bank to lower deposit rates and the resumption of the bond purchase program since November this year. According to data, eurozone GDP grew by only 0.2% in the third quarter compared with the second. The economy showed growth of only 1.2% compared to the same period of 2018. Economists predicted that annual GDP growth would be 1.1% and quarterly growth 0.2%.

In the morning, the report on the unemployment rate in France is higher, which rose to 8.6% in the third quarter of this year, against 8.5% in the second quarter. Economists expected unemployment unchanged.

The current situation in the eurozone economy indicates the need for further stimulus measures by the ECB, which will continue to exert medium-term pressure on the European currency. From a technical point of view, a breakthrough of support at 1.1000 opens a direct path for sellers of risky assets to lows in the areas of 1.0970 and 1.0940. Only a trend reversal above the resistance of 1.1025 will return some confidence to buyers, which will lead to the closure of a number of short positions and a more powerful upward momentum to the highs of 1.1060 and 1.1100.

GBPUSD

The British pound was not able to cling to the resistance of 1.2860, which the bulls are seeking throughout the week. A weak report on retail sales in the UK in October this year once again pointed to problems in the economy. The decline has been observed for the third consecutive month, which is an alarming call for the Bank of England.

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According to the UK National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2019, retail sales decreased by 0.1% compared to September. The fall was due to lower sales of volatile categories, in particular, food and household items. Sales grew by 3.1% compared to October 2018. Most likely, the persistence of uncertainty associated with Brexit makes consumers more cautious about their costs.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, a break of the support level of 1.2820 will increase pressure on the pound and push it into the region of this month's lows, in the areas of 1.2800 and 1.2770. It will be possible to talk about the continuation of the upward correction only after the trading instrument consolidates above the resistance of 1.2860, which will open real prospects for updating the highs of 1.2900 and 1.2940.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. November 14. Results of the day. Donald Trump warns China of new duties if deal fails

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 56p - 38p - 27p - 36p - 25p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 36p (low).

The fourth trading day of the week for the EUR/USD currency pair was again in the lowest volatility movement, and today it is not even possible to say that the downward trend has continued, since quotes have not dropped much during the day. It seems that the outbursts of the bears dried up, and we already wrote about the reasons for this in previous reviews. A paradoxical situation persists for the euro/dollar pair. By this term we mean a situation in which the bulls have no reason to buy the euro, and the bears do not have good reasons for further selling the pair near its 2-year lows. As a result, all this can lead to the exit of the market and the bears, the volatility will fall even more, and the pair will increase, starting an upward correction, which will not be substantiated either fundamentally or technically.

Traders again received a fairly large amount of important macroeconomic information during the day. This week is generally surprisingly plentiful for various kinds of macroeconomic statistics and just interesting news. However, that very paradoxical situation, unfortunately, blocks the development by traders of all this interesting information. For example, today German GDP by preliminary value showed an increase of 0.1% in quarterly terms, although experts expected a decrease of 0.1%. In annual terms, GDP grew by 0.5%, which, of course, is very small, but still more than a quarter earlier. Eurozone GDP also unexpectedly pleased, although this is also an inconclusive value indicator. The increase in the third quarter was + 0.2% QOQ and + 1.2% in annual terms (forecast + 1.1% YOY). Thus, certain grounds for strengthening the euro were received during the European trading session. However, the bulls continued to remain outside the market, considering that the preliminary values are not final and can still change for the worse. In general, market participants simply ignored data from Europe.

There was not a single important publication in the United States, but the euro/dollar pair began to grow during the US trading session, which so far can not be called either strong or even average in strength. Nevertheless, it takes place and can be the beginning of at least a correction of the pair.

One of the most interesting news of today is the announcement of Beijing's refusal from the annual purchase of US agricultural products for a fixed amount of $50 billion. China does not refuse the earlier promise to purchase pork, soybeans and other agricultural products from America, but does not consider it a profitable option to deal with a strictly prescribed amount. In addition, it is reported that Beijing is not going to take any action in the field of intellectual property protection, which Washington insists. Now the most important thing! What have we heard in recent weeks on the US-China trade war? "Progress in the negotiations", "the parties are close to an agreement in the first phase" and so on. What do we have in fact? China and the United States cannot agree again on several key points of the agreement. Moreover, at what points the parties reached an agreement, not reported. What do we have in the bottom line? Only that trade negotiations can be considered stalled once again. Donald Trump has already managed to cover this topic, saying in the Economic Club in New York that the US will significantly increase duties on Chinese products if agreements cannot be reached. That is, in fact, Donald Trump continues to adhere to the previously chosen strategy, which implies either the consent of China to the conditions of the United States, or an increase in duties on all imports from China. The American leader believes that it is China that can fail negotiations for the second time in a row, since the parties could have signed the agreement earlier, but Beijing refused to comply with "some of the agreements reached earlier." "We will only agree to a deal if it is beneficial to American workers and companies," Trump concluded. At the current stage of negotiations between Washington and Beijing, we can assume that the trade war will drag on for many years, and Donald Trump will not continue it in a year.

Well, the technical picture of the currency pair currently seems to be unambiguous, but at the same time implying non-standard options for the development of events. We have already said that from a fundamental point of view that the pair's fall is justified. But at the same time, the fundamental background is not so strong that traders continue to sell the pair near its 2-year lows. It is this factor that can play in the euro's favor in the coming days and weeks. We believe it is highly likely that an upward correction will begin today, despite the macroeconomic statistics that have already been published this week and will be published.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair still retains the prospects for a downward trend. Thus, it is now recommended to continue to sell the currency pair with targets at 1.0977 and 1.0966. At the same time, overcoming the Kijun-sen critical line by traders will confirm our hypothesis that the trend direction will change to an upward one and sell positions will lose their relevance. New pair sales are now risky, purchases are not fundamentally substantiated.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for AUD/CAD. Crosses are back in the game.

Good evening, dear traders! I present to you the trading idea for the AUD / CAD pair.

If you carefully look at my analytics, you probably have noticed that I regularly trade "dense" cross-rates more than once and, frankly, the results on them delight me with no less regularity.

The fact is that certain crosses have a very narrow range of moves, which allows them to successfully trade them in a "grid way" and regularly withdraw profits. One such instrument is the AUD/CAD. Let me remind you that AUD/CAD has been in a downward trend for a year now, periodically giving very impressive pullbacks. The average recoilless stroke of this instrument is 7000 5-digit. Thus, if you look closely at the spring trend - it is precisely these 7000 p. And this means that it can be "picked up from the loyalties" for a pullback. We have bought it several times with you, and it regularly gave us profit. Thus, now, AUD/CAD is rolling back down again - which means that it is time to buy, although this should not be done exactly as is customary in the classical trade in "majors". This is done with a grid of orders. In fact, you split the work lot into 3-5 parts and buy the first part at the current price. The remaining parts, on the other hand, are set by limit buy orders in increments of 500p by 5-digit. Thus, you form a network of buy orders with a common take at one quote. In addition, a common stop on this network should also be considered. I will give an example of how to do this below. It will be the trading idea for a set of longs on AUD/CAD.

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Tomorrow, I will give one more cross with good potential!

I wish you all success in trading and control risks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com