Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 19

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, we continue to monitor the local structure for the top of September 17. For the GBP / USD pair, we expect the movement towards the level of 1.3229. We consider the movement downwards as a correction. For the USD / CHF pair, the expressed initial conditions for the top is expected to reach the level of 0.9701. For the of USD / JPY pair, the continuation of the upward movement is possible after passing the price of the noise range at 112.46 - 112.64. For the EUR / JPY pair, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 131.86. For the GBP / JPY pair, the subsequent development of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 148.43. The level of 146.82 is the key support.

The forecast for September 19:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1783, 1.1761, 1.1728, 1.1704, 1.1657, 1.1640, 1.1613 and 1.1576. Here, we continue to follow the local upward structure of September 17. Short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.1704 - 1.1728. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1761. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.1783. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1657 - 1.1640. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1613. As a potential value for the bottom, we are considering the level of 1.1576.

The main trend is a local structure for the top of September 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1704 Take profit: 1.1725

Buy 1.1730 Take profit: 1.1760

Sell: 1.1655 Take profit: 1.1642

Sell: 1.1638 Take profit: 1.1615

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3346, 1.3263, 1.3229, 1.3167, 1.3111, 1.3078 and 1.3040. Here, we continue to follow the upward cycle of September 5. At the moment, we expect the movement towards the 1.3229 level. In the area of 1.3229 - 1.3263 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3346. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3111 - 1.3078. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 1.3040.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3167 Take profit: 1.3229

Buy: 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3344

Sell: 1.3111 Take profit: 1.3080

Sell: 1.3076 Take profit: 1.3040

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9701, 0.9677, 0.9628, 0.9586, 0.9560 and 0.9543. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of September 18 in correcting a downward trend. A breakdown at the level of 0.9677 will lead to a short-term upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9701. Upon reaching this level, we expect the appearance of pronounced initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The level of 0.9628 is the key support for the top. Passing the price will continue the development of the downward trend. In this case, the target is 0.9586. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9543. After reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the area of 0.9560 - 0.9543.

The main trend is the downward structure from September 11, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 0.9678 Take profit: 0.9700

Sell: 0.9626 Take profit: 0.9587

Sell: 0.9584 Take profit: 0.9562

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 113.34, 113.01, 112.64, 112.46, 112.16, 111.96 and 111.58. Here, we continue to follow the upward structure of September 7. Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 112.46 - 112.64. The breakdown of the last value will allow us to expect movement towards the level of 113.01. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level 113.34. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 112.16 - 111.96. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 111.58. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.46 Take profit: 112.62

Buy: 112.66 Take profit: 113.00

Sell: 112.16 Take profit: 111.97

Sell: 111.94 Take profit: 111.60

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key H1 scale levels are: 1.3043, 1.3003, 1.2975, 1.2931, 1.2898, 1.2877 and 1.2837. Here, the price forms a local potential from September 18 to continue the downward movement. The subsequent development of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2930. In this case, the target is 1.2898. In the area of 1.2898 - 1.2877 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the downward movement is the level of 1.2837. After reaching this level, we expect a pullback upward.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.2975 - 1.3003. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3043. This level is the key support for the downward structure of September 6.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2975 Take profit: 1.3001

Buy: 1.3005 Take profit: 1.3043

Sell: 1.2930 Take profit: 1.2898

Sell: 1.2875 Take profit: 1.2840

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7362, 0.7320, 0.7287, 0.7241, 0.7171, 0.7139 and 0.7081. Here, we follow the initial conditions for the upward cycle of September 11. At the moment, we expect the movement towards the level of 0.7287. In the area of 0.7287-0.7320 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7362. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7171 - 0.7139. From this area, there is a high probability of a turn up. A breakdown of the level of 0.7139 will lead to the development of a downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.7081.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of September 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7241 Take profit: 0.7285

Buy: 0.7320 Take profit: 0.7360

Sell: 0.7170 Take profit: 0.7140

Sell: 0.7135 Take profit: 0.7090

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For the of EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 132.96, 132.52, 131.86, 131.02, 130.70, 130.21 and 129.71. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of September 10. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 131.86. In this case, the target is 132.52. The potential value for the upward trend is the level of 132.96. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 131.02 - 130.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 130.21. This level is the key support for the top. Passing by the price will lead to the development of the downward movement. In this case, the target is 129.71.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 131.88 Take profit: 132.50

Buy: 132.55 Take profit: 132.90

Sell: 131.02 Take profit: 130.72

Sell: 130.68 Take profit: 130.25

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 150.53, 149.31, 148.43, 147.40, 146.82 and 145.89. Here, we continue to follow the upward structure of September 7. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 148.43. In this case, the target is 149.31. The consolidation is near this level and hence, there is a high probability of a pullback downwards. The potential value for the top is 150.53. From this level, we expect a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 147.40 - 146.82. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 145.89. This level is the key support for the upward structure of September 7.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 148.45 Take profit: 149.20

Buy: 149.35 Take profit: 150.50

Sell: 147.40 Take profit: 146.88

Sell: 146.78 Take profit: 146.00

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The review of the foreign exchange market as of September 19, 2018

Mario Draghi's speech, of course, did not frighten the market participants even more, but also did not dispel fears that aroused after the ECB's meeting on the monetary policy. The head of the ECB did not give an explanation of what is meant by favorable conditions, the fulfillment of which is the guarantee of curtailing the activities of the quantitative easing program. So, there are still risks of another extension of the quantitative easing program. However, in addition to the speech of the head of the ECB, there were no other events yesterday, and since the situation did not clear up, the situation on the market remained unchanged.

Today, Mario Draghi will once again keep his promise, but after yesterday's speech, one should not expect any new introductory words. However, unlike yesterday, there are a number of statistical data that will affect the mood of market participants today. In particular, in Europe, the growth of the construction industry is forecast to slow from 2.6% to 1.7%, which does not bode well for the industry as a whole. In the UK, inflation is expected to slow from 2.5% to 2.4%, and given the extremely muffled outcome of the recent meeting of the Bank of England's board, investors are clearly negatively reacting to this news. After all, this means that in the near future, one should not expect any sharp steps from the English regulator. But in the US, quite good statistics are expected. Although the number of building permits should be reduced by 1,000, from 1,311 thousand to 1,310 thousand, the number of construction projects may increase by as much as 67 thousand, from 1,168 thousand to 1,235 thousand. If these forecasts are justified, then there is a hope that housing sales will begin to recover after a prolonged recession.

Thus, we should expect a gradual decline in the single European currency to 1.1650.

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The pound will also have to give up its positions, and it is most likely that it will have to fall to 1.3100.analytics5ba1f2ec7f2a0.png

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Bitcoin analysis for September 19, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found the breakout of the intraday support trendline, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found the next potential support level at the $6.208 (upward trendline) and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.208 and at the price of $6.167. The short-term trend is downward.

Support/Resistance

$6.320 – Intraday resistance

$6.208 – Objective target 1

$6.167 – Objective target 2

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 19, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is currently trapped between the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1500). As for the bearish side of the market to be dominant, the pair needs a quick bearish breakdown below 1.1500.

However, the price level of 1.1520 is still standing as a prominent demand level where the current bullish pullback was initiated.

As long as the price level of 1.1520 holds price above, another Bullish movement should expected towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750) where bearish rejection should be anticipated.

On the other hand, any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will allow a further bullish advance towards 1.1850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 19, 2018

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The recent bearish momentum of the GBP/USD has shown signs of weakness since September 5 when an ascending bottom was established around 1.2800

The GBP/USD pair was testing the depicted downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090. This week, the pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) also corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These levels failed to offer enough bearish pressure. Instead, this price zone turned to become a prominent demand zone to be watched for price action.

The GBP/USD pair continues to demonstrate its uptrend within the depicted bullish channel on H4 chart.

As long as the current bullish breakout above 1.3090 (Demand level-1 and the lower limit of the H4 channel) is maintained, further bullish advancement should be expected towards 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3315.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.3090 (Demand level-1) will probably invalidate the bullish scenario for the short-term. Hence, the pair would have lower targets around 1.3010 (Demand level-2).

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GBP/USD analysis for September 19, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. I found a breakout of the 10-day rising wedge, which is a sign that sellers took control from the buyers and that buying looks risky. The strong supply entered the market and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential downward targets. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.3053 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.2950.

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EUR/USD analysis for September 19, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1714. According to the M30 time – frame, I found rejection of the pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.1708, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found rejection from the upper Keltner band (resistance) and hidden bearish divergence on the 3/10 oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1651, 1.1636 and at the price of 1.1617.

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GBP / USD: plan for the US session on September 18. Pound buyers are waiting for new messages on Brexit

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

To return the bullish momentum to the market, buyers of the pound need to break through the resistance level of 1.3141, which will lead to the formation of an upward wave and the renewal of the high of 1.3175, to which the bulls did not last in the morning. Only above this range can we expect an increase in demand for the pound with a test of levels of 1.3214 and 1.3263, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pound drop in the afternoon, you can return to purchases on a false breakout from 1.3103 or on a rebound from 1.3070.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

While the trade is below resistance 1.3141, the pressure on the pound will be maintained, and the formation of a false breakout at this level in the afternoon will be a good signal to increase short positions in the downgrade to support area 1.3103 and 1.3070, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pound rising above 1.3141, short positions can be returned after a maximum of 1.3175 has been updated, or a rebound from the 1.3214 area.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average is above the 50-day average and both are sliding up, indicating a continuation of the upward trend for the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on September 18. Mario Draghi ignored the topic of interest rates

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

In the first half of the day, buyers of the European currency did not cope with the important task of keeping the support level at 1.1698, as a result of which trade moved under this range, seriously limiting the further upward potential of the euro in the short term. In the afternoon, I recommend buying back the euro only after the formation of a false breakdown at 1.1670 or a rebound from the larger support 1.1646. The goal of Euro will be a break and close of the day above the resistance of 1.1698, which will allow to expect to update the high of 1.1732.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Mario Draghi did not deal with the topic of interest rates during today's speech, which limited the upside potential of the euro. The sellers returned to the level of 1.1698, which led to the formation of pressure on the pair, which is maintained at the time of writing. The main task will be a repeat test and a breakdown of support 1.1670, which will lead to a larger sale of the euro in the area 1.1646 and 1.1620, where I recommend fixing profits. Breakthrough 1.1670 will also move the trade under the 30- and 50-day moving average, which will clearly be a bearish signal. If the euro rises above 1.1698 in the afternoon, you can immediately sell at a rebound of 1.1732.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average is on par with the 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Band

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Analysis of GBP / USD pair: Divergences for September 19. Two bearish divergences stop the pound's trek upward

4h

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The new bearish divergence, formed by the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart, allowed the GBP / USD pair to stop the growth process, but not to start the fall. The pair is still able to turn in favor of the US currency and begin a decline in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% to 1.3067, but the passage of the last peak of the divergence will work in favor of continuing growth towards the corrective level of 38.2% at 1.3316. On September 19, there are no new brewing divergence for any indicator.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries of April 17, 2018 and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair also suspended the growth process due to the bearish divergence of the MACD indicator. As a result, today the pair can perform a return to the Fibo level of 127.2% at 1.3112. Passing the last peak of the divergence will allow traders to count on the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% at 1.3202. The consolidation of the pair above the Fibo level of 161.8% will increase the chances of the growth to continuing growth towards the next correction level of 200.0%.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries of August 30, 2018 and September 5, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.3202 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 127.2% if there is a retreat from the Fibo level of 1.3112 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can now be carried out with a target of 1.3112 and a Stop Loss order over the last peak of the divergence.

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EUR / USD for September 18: the struggle for key resistance continues

EUR / USD

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Despite the expectations, the players on the rise once again rose to the key resistance. The struggle for 1.1708-50 continues. Weakness, manifested during the testing of this zone during the last three weeks, is unlikely to be overcome easily and quickly. Today, the support retain their location - 1.1624 (daytime Tenkan) - 1.1562-73 (weekly Senkou Span B + monthly Senkou Span A + day cloud) - 1.1526-18 (weekday Tenkan + daytime Kijun).

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The situation has not undergone any significant changes. The key zone of resistance retains its importance and location of 1.1708-50 (upper-time levels + maximum extremum + target for H4 cloud breakdown). The pair climbed to the boundaries of the zone, but again tests only its lower limits. In addition to the most important supports noted above, today we can distinguish between 1.1650-60 (Kidzhun N4 + Kijun N1 + N1 cloud). This support is responsible for the main advantage at the lower time intervals.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on September 19. Bears are actively selling the euro

To open long positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers of the European currency need to be extremely cautious. It is better to consider new long positions after returning and consolidating above the middle of the channel at 1.1689, which will lead to the update of this week's highs around 1.1722, where fixing profits are recommended. In the event that bulls can not climb above 1.1689, you can look at long positions at a false breakdown from the lower border of the side channel at 1.1656 or open long positions pf EUR / USD pair for a rebound from 1.1620.

To open short positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers in the first half of the day will try to keep the resistance level of 1.1689. The formation of a false breakout on it will be a direct signal to the opening of short positions in EUR / USD with the aim of re-testing the lower border of the channel 1.1656 and the breakdown of which will lead to an immediate sellout of the euro with a yield to the lows in areas 1.1620 and 1.1591. In the case of growth above 1.1689 in the European session, sales can be returned immediately to a rebound when approaching resistance 1.1722.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The 30-day moving average is on par with the 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

The return of the price under the average border of the Bollinger Bands will be a signal to the euro sales. The upper border is in the area of 1.1709, from which you can also see short positions.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for September 18. The pound sterling is growing thanks to news

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on September 17, the GBP / USD currency pair increased by 95 percentage points and, thus, continued the construction of an ascending wave, bounded by a tapering corridor. The assumed wave is part of the corrective structure, which takes its origin on August 15 and has an unconventional appearance. It is this non-standard form that does not allow us to imagine how strong and long the future growth of the pair will be. Anyway, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 161.8% on a small Fibonacci grid will lead to the withdrawal of quotations from the maximum reached, and possibly to the completion of the entire wave.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3181 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.3275 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2636 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (the highest grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to be in a stage of some uncertainty. The third wave of the upward trend section continues its construction with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.3181 and 1.3275. I recommend staying in the stores with these goals. However, this wave can complete its construction near the designated marks, so new purchases are risky. Much will depend on the news background.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for September 18. News background has a big impact on wave counting

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Monday, the currency pair EUR / USD rose by 55 percentage points. Thus, the construction of an upward wave, presumably wave 3, a, continues. If this is the case, then an attempt to break the level of 0.0% by Fibonacci will be successful. At the same time, given the unstable news background, the option of complicating the trend section, which starts on August 28, remains. If the second option is executed, then an unsuccessful attempt at a breakthrough of 0.0% will lead to a decrease in quotations to the 1.1500 area at a minimum.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1517 - 50.0% of Fibonacci retracement

1.1465 - 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1733 - 0.0% of Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair is supposedly continuing to build wave 3, a, but the wave pattern continues to get entangled, so now caution is needed in the trade. The rise in quotations may continue within wave 3 with targets near the estimated mark of 1.1733, which corresponds to 0.0% of Fibonacci. The further movement of the pair will depend entirely on whether the attempt to break this mark will be successful.

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GBP / USD. 18th of September. The trading system "Regression channels". The climax in Brexit talks is close

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

CCI: 120.6668

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, September 18, resumed and continues the upward movement, despite all the ups and downs associated with Brexit. Recall that the issue on the terms of the so-called "deal" with the EU remains open, but it seems that the entire theme is smoothly moving into the stage of the culmination. Firstly, Theresa May made an ultimatum to the politicians of the Parliament, in which she made it clear that either they would vote for her version of Brexit, or there would be no deal with Brussels at all. This statement may further lower the rating of the prime minister of Britain, but it is no longer up to the ratings. Now let's see how the Parliament reacts to such an ultimatum. Secondly, the IMF presented a report in which it is reported that the UK will suffer much more strongly from the EU in the event that there are no "deals" between the parties. Thus, the IMF, as it were, is pushing London to be more flexible in the negotiations. Anyway, until November everything should clear up. So far, the pound sterling of new pressure, which would be very logical, is not. The topic with a political scandal in the United States is of interest to traders much more. However, you should not overlook the Brexit theme. An important message can increase demand for the dollar and reduce demand for the British pound.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1,3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3184

R2 = 1.3245

R3 = 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its upward movement, as evidenced by Heikin Ashi. Thus, now it is recommended to trade on the rise with the targets of 1.3184 and 1.3245. Turning Heikin Ashi down will serve as a signal to manually close positions.

Short positions are recommended to be considered after fixing the price below the moving average line. Bears, in this case, are activated, but this will require strong fundamental data from the United States or London on the most important topics now.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on September 18. The next rumors of Brexit support the pound

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Yesterday, the pound was supported by news on Brexit, which reinforced the faith of investors in reaching an early agreement. It is about controlling the goods delivered to Ireland, which can be assigned to the UK. Considering long positions today is best after the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.3141 or a rebound from a larger level of 1.3103 and 1.3070. The main objective of the buyers for the first half of the day will be the breakthrough of resistance 1.3175, above which we can wait for the continuation of the upward trend with the update of the maximum in the area of 1.3214 and 1.3263, where I recommend fixing the profit.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to form a false break in the first half of the day in the area of the maximum 1.3175, and also gain a foothold below the support of 1.3141, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop-orders of buyers and downward correction of the pound in the support area 1.3103 and 1.3070, where I recommend fixing profits. Any Brexit news, even in the form of rumors, can lead to a new pound wave above the level of 1.3175. In this case, I recommend returning to short positions after the test of fresh highs in the area of 1.3214 and 1.3263.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average is above the 50-day average and both are sliding up, indicating a continuation of the upward trend for the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on September 18. Bullish divergence allowed the euro to grow

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the European currency, after the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator, and the fixation over the Fibo level of 76.4% to 1.1675. As a result, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.1791. On September 18, there are no new brewing divergences. The consolidation of quotations under the Fibo level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US dollar and expect a slight drop towards the corrective level of 61.8% - 1.1605.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, after the rebound from the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.1553, the growth process continues in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789. Brewing divergences are not observed again today. The pair's retracement from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction level of 100.0%. Fixing a pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of further growth.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can now be carried out with a target of 1.1791 with a stop loss order under the Fibo level of 76.4%, since the pair completed the closing above the correction level of 1.1675.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible for 1.1605 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair completes closing under the level of 1.1675.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair for September 18. Results of the day. New duties for China worth $ 200 billion

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 78p - 80p - 92p - 101p - 80p. Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 78p - 80p - 92p - 101p - 80p.

The average is for 86n (88p).

Well, what happened was what the markets feared. Trump officially announced the introduction of a new package of trade duties on imports of Chinese goods to the total amount of $ 200 billion. The decision comes into effect on September 24. Fees will be set at 10% and will be valid until January 1, 2019, after which they will increase to 25%. If China goes on retaliatory measures, then Trump threatens to introduce duties on almost all the remaining goods for a total of $ 267 billion. Thus, Trump continues to put pressure on China, which so far responds with similar measures. What is noteworthy is that the dollar has not jumped in value after the promulgation of this decision. This is a very important point. Perhaps, traders finally realized that in the trade war, like in any other war, there will be no winners. This blow will inflict on the Chinese economy, but the US economy will suffer. Another noteworthy moment is when the price once again tested the level of 1.1720 and at the moment we can state a rebound from it. On the one hand, traders did not start buying dollars. On the other, the level of 1.1720 will not let the pair to go up. Thus, we have a very strong resistance zone of 1,1720 - 1,1750. Will the bulls still make their way through it - a big question. This is a very delicate moment, and, by and large, we still have to wait, what will happen next to this notorious level? Do not forget that earlier the price four times tested the mark of 1.1750 and all are four times unsuccessful.

Trading recommendations:

For the EUR / USD pair, the price once again achieved the level of 1,1721. A rebound of the price from this target or a turn of the MACD indicator down will indicate the beginning of a new round of downward correction about will serve as a signal for closing purchase orders.

Sell-positions are recommended to consider now but not earlier than overcoming the Kijun-Sen line, and preferably the Ichimoku cloud. This will only mean a change in the trend for the instrument, and the first goal will then be the support level of 1.1525.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair for September 18. Results of the day. Pound shows calm in response to Trump's new sanctions against China

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 123p - 102p - 98p - 87p - 97p.

The average is for 101n (113p).

On the first trading day of the week, the British pound sterling is traded in a narrow price range. Quite a strange market reaction to Trump's introduction of new trade duties against Chinese goods for a huge sum of $ 200 billion and a threat to impose sanctions for another $ 267 billion. Previously, more small trade restrictions caused a strong growth of the US currency. Thus, it seems that the market has already resigned to the desire of Trump to impose duties on all of its trading partners. By the way, Japan is on the line and negotiations with which are scheduled for September 24. If the parties do not come to a consensus, then we do not even need to assume the further actions of Trump. What does the lack of reaction of traders to this data mean? First, perhaps, markets are tired of reacting to dollar purchases of new US trade sanctions. Potentially, there can be many more and if each time the dollar grows, it will eventually lead to the fact that the world will have one currency. Secondly, it seems that the markets still realized that the US economy and American companies and ordinary citizens are also beginning to suffer from sanctions, which can not have a favorable impact on the economy as a whole.

In general, the recommendations on the tool remain the same and technical indicators are doing an excellent job now with their task and eloquently indicate the preservation of an uptrend. Thus, we continue to trade on the trend, continuing to monitor the news from the US president and the Chinese government, which in the near future can respond with countermeasures against America.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair retains its growth prospects, but it can not be overcome by the first target of 1.3175. If this level is passed, then, the target for the long will be the resistance level of 1.3255.

Kijun-sen line, above which there are high chances to continue the uptrend. In this case, the target for the sell-positions will be the level of 1.2928 or the Senkou line Span B.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for September 19, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite impulsive with the recent bearish momentum which lead the price to reside at the edge of 1.2950 area from where a daily close below will lead to further bearish momentum. As the US has been struggling amid recent economic reports and trade war tensions with Canada, the market sentiment is currently favoring CAD gains for the future.

Though CAD has been quite mixed on the back of recent economic reports, it managed to gain better results and sentiment in comparison to USD in the process. Yesterday Canada's Manufacturing Sales report was published with a decrease to 0.9% from the previous value of 1.3% which was expected to be at 1.0%. The worse economic report did not affect gains of CAD. Judging by the current market situation, it led to further impulsiveness with the gains. Moreover, this week Canada's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, CPI and Retail Sales reports are going to be published. Their expectations are quite mixed which would be unable to provide any definite momentum unless actual figure is published.

On the other hand, this week USD has been quite mixed with the economic reports as well, but today's economic data may change the course for a certain period. Today US Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 1.31M and Housing Starts is expected to increase to 1.24M from the previous figure of 1.17M. Additionally, today Crude Oil Inventories report is going to be published which is expected to increase to -2.7M from the previous figure of -5.3M.

Meanhwile, CAD is still quite strong fundamentally, winning favor with investors. Pending US economic reports today are expected to provide the required information for the upcoming market momentum in the pair. If USD fails to provide better than expected results, then CAD is likely to dominate further against USD for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has engulfed the previous bullish volatile price action yesterday which has the lead the price to reside at the edge of 1.2950 area currently. If the price managed to have a daily close below 1.2950 today, further bearish momentum with a target towards 1.2750 is expected in this pair. As the price remains below 1.3050 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2750, 1.2950

RESISTANCE: 1.3050, 1.3200

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 19, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite impulsive with recent bullish gains after breaching above 129.50 and retesting it as support for a further climb. EUR is currently trying to regain strength during the global financial crisis which triggered certain volatility for banks around the world. EUR has proved to be quite strong enough to sustain the momentum it has currently.

This week economic reports from the eurozone came in line with expectations, including Final CPI remaining unchanged at 2.0% as expected and Final Core CPI was also published unchanged at 1.0% as expected. Yesterday ECB President Draghi spoke about the benefits of European Supervision where 3 important benefits were discussed – 1. Having single supervisory method to harmonize the supervisory practices for the banks 2. A system wide perspective to monitor and compare the weaknesses and strengths 3. Reducing Fragmentation in the Supervisory Framework. The speech aroused a mixed response from the market. ECB is trying hard to keep the balance despite concerns about economic growth. Today again ECB President Draghi is going to deliver a speech which is expected to clear up policies for the eurozone's economy thus providing additional hints for further momentum. Moreover, today EUR Current Account report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 22.4B from the previous figure of 23.5B.

On the other hand, today BOJ Policy Rate report was published unchanged -0.10% as expected which did not quite help JPY to gain any momentum over EURO in the process. Moreover, at BOJ Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement, the slow and steady growth for the future is being expected by the BOJ officials which will help to stabilize the economy for future while having no immediate impact on the current market situation. This week on Friday, Japan's National Core CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.8%, Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 53.1 from the previous figure of 52.5, and All Industry Activity is also expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous negative value of -0.8%.

Meanwhile, EUR has more surprises to disclose this week whereas JPY is expected to remain low the upcoming economic activities. As JPY is quite optimistic with the upcoming reports, whereas EUR having new policies for the benefit of the economy to be applied, certain volatility may be observed in the market. EUR is expected to take the lead amid the current market formation and sentiment.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 131.00-132.00 area from where certain bearish pressure may be observed as the price has formed a Bearish Continuous Divergence in the process which is expected to the price towards 129.50 area again the coming days. As the price remains below 132.00 area, certain bearish pressure can be observed in the future.

SUPPORT: 129.50

RESISTANCE: 131.00, 132.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: intraday levels for EUR/USD for Sept 19, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as the German 10-y Bond Auction and the Current Account data. The US will also deliver economic reports such as the Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, Current Account, and Building Permits. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1736

Strong Resistance:1.1729

Original Resistance: 1.1718

Inner Sell Area: 1.1707

Target Inner Area: 1.1679

Inner Buy Area: 1.1651

Original Support: 1.1640

Strong Support: 1.1629

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1622

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 19, 2018

EUR/USD marginally broke twice above 1.17 but it did not manage to clearly break resistance on a daily basis. The rejection at 1.1730-1.1720 is a bearish sign but as long as price is above 1.1620 I remain bullish.

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Blue lines - triangle

EUR/USD is running out of space to run. Upper resistance is at 1.1730 while support is at 1.1620. We break resistance and we are off to 1,19. Short-term trend remains bullish. I remain bullish as long as we hold above 1.1620.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Sept 19, 2018

In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, and Trade Balance. The US will release some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, Current Account, and Building Permits. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility today. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:Resistance. 3: 112.88Resistance. 2: 112.66Resistance. 1: 112.44.Support. 1: 112.17.Support. 2: 111.95.Support. 3: 111.73.Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for September 19, 2018

Gold price remains inside a bearish channel and recently touched its upper channel boundary and got rejected. Gold price is vulnerable to the downside specially if support at $1,190 fails to hold.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Red rectangle - short-term resistance

Yellow rectangle - resistance

Gold price is challenging short-term resistance at $1,205 and $1.210. As long as price is above $1,190 support, we remain optimistic for another push higher towards $1,220. Breaking out of the bearish channel would be a very important event. A rejection however at $1,205 could lead to a move lower towards $1,170 at least.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 19/09/2018

The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at -0.1% as expected. The bank introduced a negative interest rate in January 2016. On Wednesday, the bank did not change any other benchmark and the profitability target of 10-year JGB is at the level of approx 0.0%. BoJ has kept its forward guidance for interest rates unchanged.

Analysts estimate that "under the governorship" of Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan will maintain its current bias in its monetary policy until 2020. They add that BoJ will have to face next challenges, trying to sustain economic growth in Japan and bring inflation closer to 2.0%. Short-term risks include the September earthquake in Hokkaido, typhoons and a record heat wave. All this can affect the result of GDP in the third quarter.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture after the decision was made. The market spiked up above the technical resistance at the level of 112.17 and made a new local high at the level of 112.43. This is the level of 1:1 Fibo geometry as well, so it can trigger a local pull-back on this market. Moreover, there is a clear bearish divergence forming at this time frame and the market conditions are now overbought, which adds another clue to the bearish case. The nearest technical support is expected at the level of 112.17 and is seen at the level of 112.04 and 111.82.

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Global macro overview for 19/09/2018

A series of messages from Washington and Beijing has confused financial markets and shows how trade in major currencies has become particularly unpredictable and difficult. USD is in retreat, and risky assets are doing better, though for bad reasons.

According to the announcements, the US presented a list of goods imported from China worth USD 200 billion, which will be subject to customs duties, first (from September 24) in the amount of 10%, and from the beginning of next year, the rate will rise to 25%. Everyone was waiting for China's response, but it came from anonymous sources and gaining in a positive way that Beijing sees the only right way in cooperation. As a result, the first market movement in the "risk-off" mode has been reversed. This morning, China officially announced that they intend to introduce retaliation at the same time as tariffs imposed by the US, and the future of further negotiations is uncertain. It brought confusion again. Landscape at night looks like USD and JPY are weaker, they gain risky currencies, and stock indices are strong. However, I would not read it as a sign that everything is fine for investors and we reject the fears of trade wars. The events of the night undermined the confidence of market participants to the conditions that served as the basis for the positions taken. What about the fact that the US-China trade dispute will last several months if suddenly incoming anonymous information can break the order and bring speculative price rallies in the opposite direction. Confusion is an unprofitable feature of the market and hence I treat the recent changes as a reduction of positions by investors for whom the risk of surprise has become too great. Unwinding position can now be the main driver of change, which can hurt the USD the most, which in recent weeks has used the hawkish Fed's narrative, strong US economy and escape to security in the face of tensions in emerging markets.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is treading dangerously close to the technical support at the level of 94.36 again and this level might be violated soon. Moreover, the price is still below the blue trend line and below the technical resistance at the level of 95.00. In a case of a further move down, the next technical support is seen at the level of 94.17 - 94.10. Weak momentum indicator (below fifty) confirms the short-term bearish outlook.

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Trading plan for 19/09/2018

On Wednesday, the 19th of September, the event calendar is light on important data releases. The UK will post Consumer Price Index data, Eurozone will post Current Account data and the US will present Building Permits, Housing Starts and Crude Oil Inventories data. There is a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi scheduled at 02:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD analysis for 19/09/2018:

The UK CPI data will be the most important event of the day as the market participants expect the inflation to jump from 0.0% to 0.5% on monthly basis. On the yearly basis, the CPI is expected to slightly decrease from 2.5% to 2.4%. Moreover, the CPI Core figures are expected to decrease as well, from 1.9% to 1.8%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading just below the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.3191 - 1.3217 in overbought conditions. The momentum is still positive, so a spike higher can occur if the data will bear the expectations (higher probability of BoE interest rate hike in the future). The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.3081. Please notice, the current waves are equal in the 1:1 ratio at the level of 1.3168.

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Bitcoin analysis for 19/09/2018

According to the published draft, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine proposed a bill that would enter into force the tax on operations using cryptographic assets. The tax law, which was initiated by 23 civil servants, suggests a five-percent tax on natural and legal persons who use virtual currency assets, such as cryptocurrencies and tokens. From January 1, 2024, revenues from cryptographic operations from enterprises would be taxed at the rate of 18%, which is the basic rate of corporation tax in Ukraine. The new law aims to withdraw large amounts of operations from the shadow economy in order to increase state budget revenues by adding a completely new kind of income and to encourage the development of activities related to cryptography in Ukraine. Therefore, the introduction of virtual asset transactions into the legal field [will allow] to generate 1.27 billion hryvnias (43 million dollars) to the budget annually in 2019-2024.

At present, cryptocurrencies are not regulated in Ukraine. In May 2018, the head of the Ukrainian National Securities and Exchange Commission, Timur Khromaev, revealed that the commission would consider recognizing cryptocurrencies as a financial instrument, emphasizing the need for legal recognition of cryptocurrencies, which was then supported by the Financial Stability Board.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the technical support at the level of $6,179 and now is testing the level of $6,356. The price is moving inside of a small range established between this two levels and the market participants are waiting for a breakout. Due to the larger time frame trends, the expected breakout is to the downside. The next technical support is then seen at the level of $6,057 - $6,076.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 19, 2018

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What looked like the development of a triangle, was quickly destroyed. With the break below minor support at 1.7712, a final dip closer to 1.7594 remains possible before the next impulsive rally occurs towards 1.8030 on the way higher towards 1.8369.

Only a direct break above minor resistance at 1.7783 will indicate that red wave iv has completed and red wave v towards 1.8030 is developing.

R3: 1.7954

R2: 1.7900

R1: 1.7825

Pivot: 1.7783

S1: 1.7755

S2: 1.7712

S3: 1.7683

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.7615 or upon a break above 1.7783.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 19, 2018

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We have now seen the expected break above 131.11, which indicates more upside pressure towards 131.99 on the way to the longer term target at 136.50.

Support is now seen at 130.66 and again at 130.28. The later needs to protect the downside or else a small expanded flat is developing and a dip to 129.70 should be expected before the next rally higher towards 131.99.

R3: 131.99

R2: 131.50

R1: 131.11

Pivot: 130.85

S1: 130.66

S2: 130.28

S3: 130.02

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.11 with our stop placed at 130.25. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 130.66 or upon a break above 131.50 and use the same stop at 130.25.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Bounced Off Support, Prepare For A Further Rise

USD/CAD bounced nicely off its support level at 1.2969 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance level at 1.3010 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is bounced off its support level at 3.5% where a corresponding rise could occur.

USD/CAD bounced nicely off its support level where we expect to see a further rise.

Buy above 1.2969. Stop loss at 1.2937. Take profit at 1.3010.

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AUD/USD Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop

AUD/USD reversed off its resistance at 0.7227 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support level at 0.7144 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance level at 94% where a corresponding drop is expected.

AUD/USD reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 0.7227. Stop loss at 0.7265. Take profit at 0.7144.

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Ethereum analysis for 18/09/2018

The French Minister of Economy and Finance announced that the government adopted an article on the Act on Economic Development and Transformation (PACTE) devoted to initial monetary offers. According to Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, the French regulator of exchange markets, the AMF is now authorized to issue licenses to companies that want to raise funds through ICO, which aims to protect the interests of participants. Le Maire also hopes that the current legal framework for ICO in France will attract investors from around the world.

According to the PACTE project published by the National Assembly (lower chamber of the French parliament), before the issuance of any tokens, the company must apply for a license to AMF, giving detailed information about the offer and the issuer. These measures will provide additional guarantees to ICOs that AMF previously considered being risky. French President Emmanuel Macron is a well-known enthusiast for new innovative technologies, last year he proposed the transformation of France into a "startup nation". Later in 2018, according to Macron, Le Maire presented his draft PACTE bill, which aims to transform and innovate the French economy, and in March he stated that France is ready for the "Blockchain revolution".

This year, France also applied changes to the rules on cryptographic taxes, but in a more rigorous direction. As Cointelegraph reported in May, the French Council of State published specifications for Bitcoin taxation in France, changing tax on bitcoin transactions from progressive taxation (from 14 to 45 percent) to a fixed taxation of 19 percent.

Let's now take a look at Ethereum technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market retraced almost 61% of the precious sing up and bounced from the level of $188 towards the level of $212 at the time of writing. The momentum is still positive and strong, so the bulls might push the prices even higher towards the level of $22, which is the local swing high.

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AUD/USD: RBA optimism and a blank shot of Americans

During the Asian session, the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was published today. Traders did not put much hope on it, but de facto this document could have a positive impact on the dynamics of the AUD/USD pair. The regulator was optimistic about the latest trends in the country's economy and stressed that the next step of the RBA in relation to the interest rate will be its increase, and not vice versa. However, the central bank tactfully kept silent about the temporary guidelines, so the rhetoric did not impress market participants.

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In general, the release of the RBA minutes, which we will discuss below, played the second violin in today's "orchestra" of fundamental factors. By and large, the foreign exchange market is now focused only on the dynamics of the trade war between the US and China (the exception is the pound, since this currency has Brexit in priority). Therefore, the current growth of the AUD/USD pair is largely due to the news of the central theme, while the RBA minutes plays a supporting role.

So, Donald Trump still decided to escalate the trade war with China, despite the planned negotiations with Beijing. The logic of this behavior is difficult to explain, although US Secretary of Commerce William Ross, who, unlike Finance Minister Mnuchin, takes a "hawkish" position against the Chinese, voiced the arguments of the White House. According to him, such actions "corrects the behavior of China", thereby motivating it to "a more constructive dialogue." At the same time, he said that the initiative of further negotiations should come from the Chinese, not from Washington. Beijing has already been in a haste to inform that it will respond to this step with synchronous countermeasures (we are talking about five thousand US goods worth $60 billion: the rate will vary from 5 to 10%).

Contrary to the expectations of many experts, the US dollar did not benefit from the current situation, although in similar situations the greenback was in high demand. Such an "abnormal" reaction of the dollar is explained by the fact that the market was set for more harsh actions on the part of Washington. First, initially there were rumors about 25 percent tariffs, but the White House decided to dwell on a softer, 10 percent option (although the size of tariffs can be increased to 25% from 2019). Secondly, the Americans excluded more than three hundred items from the final version of the list of affected goods, including smart watches and chemical products.

These factors make it possible to say that Washington, on the one hand, "grinds its teeth", and on the other hand, demonstrates its readiness for negotiations (albeit quite peculiar). It is difficult to predict whether the Chinese will be affected by the method of a whip and even a bigger whip, but the market interpreted the latest events in this way. It is likely that in this way Donald Trump is trying to speed up the process of negotiations before the elections to the US Congress, which will be held on November 6. The Chinese, in turn, take a wait-and-see position, but at the same time do not "slam the door", leaving room for diplomatic maneuver.

Thus, at this time, traders did not panic about the escalation of the trade war, and the US currency remained "one-on-one" with macroeconomic indicators that have not been encouraging lately. And it's not just about slowing inflation in August. According to experts, Americans are increasingly noticing the negative consequences of the tariff policy of the White House. One of the warning signals become yesterday's release of the manufacturing index, which unexpectedly fell to six-month lows. And although this indicator is very minor, traders reacted to this release quite sharply, especially after the decline in consumer spending and the consumer price index. If this trend continues, the December rate hike may again be questionable (whereas now the probability of such a step is estimated at 82%).

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In other words, today's decline in the dollar index to 93 points is justified, despite the actions of the White House. Dollar pairs react accordingly, and the aussie is no exception. Especially against the optimistic tone of the minutes of the last RBA meeting.

In particular, the regulator said that it expects a further increase in the number of employed with a simultaneous decrease in unemployment at 5 percent; the central bank also predicted a positive growth of Australian GDP, while the country's economy in the future "will exceed the potential in the period in the next few years." Also, the RBA stressed that its next step is likely to be an increase in the rate. For the bulls of the pair, this nuance (which, in general, has a declarative nature) plays an important role, since, for example, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand did not rule out a reduction in the rate.

In summary, it should be noted that the dynamics of the AUD/USD pair depends entirely on the dynamics of the US-China trade conflict – or rather, from the market reaction to the actions of the opposing sides. If Beijing and Washington, contrary to recent events, do not refuse to negotiate, the "aussie" will get a reason for further growth.

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Technically, the pair is currently testing the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. This is an important level for AUD/USD bulls: if the price consolidates above 0.7220, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will form a "Golden cross" signal, which warns of a possible trend change. In the context of the current situation, this will mean that the pair will have the potential for further growth to the next resistance level of 0.7330 – this is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on D1.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 18/09/2018

During the night, the minutes of the September meeting of the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) was published. RBA sees no reason to change interest rates in the near future. The next move will probably be a hike, provided that the economy develops in a satisfactory direction. Trade tension is currently the largest global risk for the Australian economy. In addition, during the meeting, the possibility of a crisis in developing countries was discussed, with particular emphasis on Turkey and Argentina.

Donald Trump imposed a new duty on Chinese goods, which we were informed about shortly after the announcement of this decision. The US president also threatened that if China makes retaliation, it will not hesitate before the next tariffs, this time for imports worth 275 billion USD. So far, all comments from the Middle Kingdom are moderate, no steps were taken in connection with the decision of the American president. The Chinese Minister of Trade said that the government is confident of achieving the economic goals set for this year. In his opinion, there can not be a winner in a trade war. Trade protectionism of the United States will hit both countries and will also affect the whole world. In his opinion, the only option is cooperation between economic giants.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture after the news was published. The market is now trading close to the all-time high at the level of 291.72, but the Doji candle is signaling a possible pull-back from the top. Moreover, there is a clear bearish divergence forming between the price and the momentum indicator, and the market conditions are now close to neutral. In case of a deeper pullback, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 289.95 and 289.02.

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Brent pulls the rope on itself

The oil market is no stranger to living in a constant state of tug of war. If last year it was about reducing OPEC production, on the one hand, and increasing the production of oil in the United States – on the other, now only the actors have changed. Since the announcement of US sanctions against Tehran, Iranian exports of oil and petroleum products have declined by about 35%, including due to the gradual withdrawal of such large buyers like China and India. At the same time, trade wars threaten to slow down the world economy and global demand for oil, which, against the backdrop of increasing OPEC production and US companies, speaks of the undisclosed potential of the "bears" for Brent and WTI.

It should be noted that Washington has chosen an effective weapon in the fight against the objectionable regime. Gone are the days when it was necessary to send troops and missiles. Now the enemy can be brought to his knees with the help of economic methods. About 80% of Iran's tax revenues are related to the export of oil and petroleum products. The indicator by the time of the official entry into force of sanctions in November could be reduced from 2.5 million b/d to 1.4-1.5 million b/d. It has already declined to 1.9 million b/d. as a result, there are holes in the budget that are closed with the help of the printing press. Inflation accelerates, and the local currency falls by 60%.

Dynamics of Iranian exports of oil and oil products

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At the same time, sanctions against Tehran are a double-edged sword. The reduction in the supply of black gold to the world market is a key "bullish" factor that pushes prices up. Currently, the average price of Brent is $72 per barrel, and the International Energy Agency warns that in the near future the North Sea variety may gain a foothold above $80. For Trump, such a situation in the oil market is not profitable, since in this situation the cost of gasoline increases and the costs of American consumers grow. And on the nose of the midterm elections of the Congress, which may result in the victory of the Democrats and impeachment. Hence the calls for OPEC and Russia to increase production.

Interestingly, Moscow, under US sanctions, listens to them, while Saudi Arabia, on the contrary, puts sticks in the wheel. Information that Riyadh feels comfortable at the current levels of Brent, threw the quotes higher. Russia, according to the Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, claims that the North Sea variety at $70-80 per barrel is the result of sanctions, in the long term prices should fall to $50. In favor of this point of view is the fact that the consequences of trade wars will not take place immediately, but after a while, works. The expansion of the White House import tariffs against China by $200 billion will make itself felt after 6-9 months.

Technically, another unsuccessful test of diagonal support in the form of the lower border of the ascending trading channel indicates the weakness of the "bears" for Brent. Their opponents seriously intend to execute a target for 113% on the "Shark" pattern.

Brent, daily chart

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com