GBP / USD: plan for the American session on March 5. Pound ignored the good data on the service industry, and this is a bad

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

Despite a good report on the service sector, buyers failed to get above the resistance of 1.3195 today. Only a breakthrough and consolidation above this level will be a signal to buy, which will lead GBP / USD to update the highs around 1.3248 and 1.3308, where I recommend fixing the profits. When scenarios further reduce the pound, consider the new long positions best after updating the lows of 1.3093 and 1.3041.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

The bears performed well in the resistance area of 1.3195. As long as trading continues below this range, the pressure on the pair will continue, and a repeated test of support at 1.3144 will lead to a new wave of sales pounds with an update of 1.3093 and 1.3041 lows, where I recommend fixing the profits. With the growth scenario above the 1.3195 area, GBP / USD sales can be expected to rebound from the highs of 1.3248 and 1.3308.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-medium moving, which keeps the market on the side of sellers.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

Yxf_Kv6YnjLKhM5znbTQm8NMqAlMtwZAxyAjUVgL

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB meeting: the way of the euro is a foregone conclusion

E8fmkg3mowa8w_MoSZnawtDC00FTfXHitX9B_qHb

In the conditions of a slowdown in the eurozone economy, the ECB at its meeting on March 7 may change the rhetoric and even tell about new incentive mechanisms. Bloomberg respondents and other economists believe that the regulator will again postpone the rate hike. All the fundamental factors will force Mario Draghi to take steps to stimulate the economy.

With this development, the euro is prone to decline. The technical side of the picture is quite clear; a whole series of "bearish" signals are visible.

uQLrQwNNmwZUbzcMNU4ZmypKPE1YTUDtDAMcINSg

So, in the minutes of the last ECB meeting, it was stated that some politicians consider the preparation of fresh measures "urgent". It is assumed that the most likely scenario will be a new round of long-term loan program (LTRO), linked to the interest rate and providing sufficient excess liquidity to the euro. This should stop the growth of the single currency in the currency markets.

It is possible that the Central Bank will limit itself only to the preparation of the basis for such an operation, and not the actual start of the program. LTRO details will depend on what signal the policymakers decide to give to the markets. The ECB will probably fix market rates for up to about four years, offering new loans at a fixed rate. As Bloomberg economists have suggested, he may also leave the window open for earlier policy tightening by tying new loans to the base refinancing rate, which has been at zero for the past two years. The second option is considered the most likely since this step does not tie the hands of the regulator so tightly. This is important since in November a change of the head of the European Central Bank is expected.

President of the Central Bank of Germany Jens Weidmann tries to eliminate any manifestation of generosity. At a press conference held a week earlier, he said that bidding with a fixed rate could weaken the OST, while a long maturity would violate the signals to the market. They are now a sensitive policy instrument of the bank since the net redemption of assets was completed.

"The ECB probably does not want to make the conditions of its new liquidity operations so attractive that they will actually increase excess liquidity," say experts from Nordea. Therefore, it is "difficult to imagine a much weaker euro" when European financiers take action.

The position is to some extent related to the likelihood that the demand for new loans will flow from the banks of Italy and Spain. This once again highlights the unpleasant truth about their ability to survive without the support of the ECB. According to Moody's Investor Service, the European regulator finances 6% of the assets of the Spanish and Italian banking systems.

The regulation, which is agreed upon in Basel III, requires a minimum level of financing from banking companies for a period of more than 12 months (the so-called NSFR net stable financing indicator). Due to the fact that the remaining maturity of existing LTROs will fall in the current year below 12 months, banks should not bring them into compliance with the requirements of the NSFR.

According to the head of the Bank of Germany, the question of whether banks need to "follow the rules should not play any role in monetary policy decisions." A similar opinion is shared by his colleague from France.

To prevent any decisive action, at the next meeting, the resistance of these officials is enough. Draghi again has to show their talents. Markets need to believe that the ECB is serious about sustaining growth, even when it does nothing. If Draghi fails to convince the markets, we can witness a new round of sales of Spanish and Italian banks' debt obligations and expansion of the credit spread - "unreasonable tightening" of financial conditions. The regulator wishes to prevent this at all costs.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold is gaining strength again - experts

xPwqZbtOM3kJxJ4gBGq8RPI5fY_qNceltu8OIyX_

According to analysts, the recent decline in the value of the yellow metal indicates the beginning of its consolidation. The cost of 1 ounce of gold has fallen to a minimum of the last five weeks. Experts believe that this fall is temporary, and the precious metal will rise again.

Last Friday, the price of gold showed a significant decline. The cost of precious metals fell by 1.5%, below $ 1,300, which is the lowest figure since January 2018.

According to analysts, after a massive increase in gold prices, sooner or later a correction occurs. She confirmed the fear of some experts who predicted a strong resistance level at around $ 1,350. Gold could not overcome it, experts emphasize. They believe that the yellow metal can fall in price to $ 1,280 for 1 ounce. This level will be an excellent opportunity for investors to increase their position in the precious metal for the long term.

Experts urge market participants not to worry about the recent correction, recalling that the fundamental data on gold has not changed. Factors such as the trade conflict between the United States and China, the situation around Brexit, as well as the pause in the Fed's interest rates continue to support the precious metal. Experts believe that gold has a good chance to resume growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of USD / CAD for the week of March 5

Large TF:

Over the past year and a half, the pair has steadily moved to the "north" of the chart. By the end of last year, the price reached the lower boundary of the powerful reversal zone, which caused the beginning of the oncoming wave.

Small TF:

The direction of the short-term trend is set by the bear wave design of December 28. The entire past month in its structure formed the correctional part (B). The rise is nearing completion.

XZWkAex5kd6uSOt6wDh67ioYN9AK0e6y3q_Ri4HI

Forecast and recommendations:

After a flat period, the price of the pair is waiting for a new round of decline. A preliminary calculation allows you to expect up to 5 price patterns down. Supporters of the international trade style are advised to track the signals of the sale of a major.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3400 / 1.3450

Support areas:

- 1.3120 / 1.3070

- 1.2860 / 1.2810

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: RBA leaves rates unchanged. There is a possibility of a small upward correction of the euro

The Australian dollar ignored decisions and statements of the Reserve Bank of Australia related to interest rates, and only slightly decreased in tandem with the US dollar. In general, the situation in the Australian economy is fairly stable, which does not cause significant concern to the regulator, allowing you to keep interest rates at current levels.

According to the data, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, stating that the rates are in line with forecasts for GDP growth and inflation. The bank expects that inflation will continue to remain low and stable, while core inflation will grow in the coming years.

During the speech, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that the main factor of uncertainty in Australia is household consumption prospects, and now some indicators point to a slowdown in the economy in the second half of 2019.

l056Vkxj57ByKDV3XkR4rJO8dIsuvUP434CO_SVy

GDP growth in 2019 is expected to be 3%, as the labor market remains strong, and employment continues to grow significantly with a decrease in the unemployment rate, which could drop to 4.75%.

The RBA Governor also noted that global trade tensions remain a source of uncertainty.

As for the technical picture of the AUD / USD pair, trade is conducted near fairly large levels of support. A break of 0.7050 low could lead to a larger sale and aggravation of the downtrend. If the bulls manage to hold above this range in the near future, the formation of an upward correction will lead to a test of highs of 0.7140 and 0.7180.

Data on the growth rate of activity in the service sector of China in February did not affect commodity assets, even though they were rather weak.

According to the Caixin report, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for China in February 2019 fell to 51.1 points from 53.6 points in January. Let me remind you that the indicator values above 50 indicate an increase in activity. The decline was due to the low number of new orders, in particular due to the weak growth of new export orders. Given the trade conflict, this decline is not surprising.

Yesterday, the data on construction costs in the United States came, which decreased in December 2018 .

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, expenses decreased by 0.6% compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.293 trillion US dollars. Economists had expected spending to rise by 0.1%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, expenses increased by 1.6%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the pressure on the euro can significantly slow down in the event of another unsuccessful attempt to break through support for 1.1305, which is now being emphasized by large buyers of risky assets. Only a confident breakthrough of this range will allow the trading instrument to retain a downward impulse, which will lead to the area of 1.1270 and 1.1230 minimums. If it is not possible to break through 1.1305, the formation of a side channel and a slight upward correction of the euro are quite likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar is in no hurry to decline despite the efforts of Donald Trump

Last Saturday, US President Donald Trump once again stated that the dollar is too strong and lashed out at the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, calling him a man who likes to raise interest rates.

The US currency initially reacted with a fall on the statement of the head of the White House but then continued to strengthen. The dollar index shows growth for the fifth day in a row.

zNwABEzSaUANKDm9LitnXSkQ5hj1OvauWMZalyoO

Analysts say that Donald Trump seems to have to show much more zeal if he wants to reduce the dollar.

"The President of the United States, apparently, will not succeed in so simply" talking "the dollar. Where else to invest when major economies, including Europe, show weakness? There are not too many places around, and this will keep the dollar rate high, "says Stephen Miller from consulting company Grant Samuel.

Q7Dp_ec4-OSbLTfnBMm-2u9Qv0in0ZUye-Hphs4V

According to the senior portfolio manager at investment firm QIC Ltd., Stuart Simmons, the US assets remain in demand due to the cooling of the global economy, as well as the weak GDP growth in developed countries and the softening of the position of leading central banks, despite the pause of the Fed in the rate hike cycle.

"However, if the statistical data of the United States becomes comparable with the indicators of other states and in these countries, economic recovery will begin then a weakening of the dollar will probably follow," the expert believes.

"The high exchange rate of the American currency is explained by low-interest rates around the world. In 2019, yield differentials may peak and begin to shrink. If this happens, the greenback will unfold, "said Andrew Sheets of Morgan Stanley.

"If the Fed has resorted to expansionist measures for very good reasons, Donald Trump will not hesitate to present it as a result of his pressure on Jerome Powell, which will cause even more damage to the dollar," commented by the currency strategist at Commerzbank, Ulrich Leichtman.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. March 5. The trading system. "Regression Channels". There is no news about Brexit, the pound is falling again

4-hour timeframe

_3rqlLNgD_aCRP-YTuR4f3mdB75WlIPK9Im0XGKY

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -152.6128

The GBP / USD currency pair continues its not too strong downward movement and broke the moving on March 5th. There is no new data on the subject of Brexit at the moment, but it seems that the entire growth potential of the British pound has been exhausted around the level of 1.3306. Of course, if we receive news of the signing of the "deal" on Brexit tomorrow, then the pound will most likely resume its upward movement, but so far such a scenario is unlikely. For example, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Konrad Szymanski believes that the likelihood of a British exit from the EU without agreements is now as high as ever. But, according to him, the European side is doing everything possible to avoid such a scenario. We still believe that there are no weighty reasons and prerequisites for signing an agreement in the near future. In the same way as there is no reason to expect the British Parliament to endorse Theresa May's plan. Thus, now the pound sterling can again return to annual lows. From a technical point of view, the overcoming of the MA has reversed the downward trend in the instrument. There are no signs of completion of the downward movement at the moment. Tonight in the UK, there will be a speech by the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. By tradition, we expect from him a new portion of concerns about the "hard" Brexit.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD began to move down. Thus, today, short positions with targets at levels of 1.3123 and 1.3062 are recommended. The bears are now taking the initiative, and the evening performance of Carney may put additional pressure on the pound.

Buy positions are recommended to be opened in case of traders fix the pair back above the moving. In this case, the targets for buy orders will be the levels of 1.3245 and 1.3306.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on March 5

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we are following the downward structure of February 28 and the downward movement is possible after the breakdown of 1.1312. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we are following the downward structure of February 27 and the development of which is expected after the passage of the range of 1.3132 - 1.3105. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms the initial conditions for the top of February 28 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 1.0022. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the development of the upward cycle of February 27. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is in deep correction and forms the potential for the bottom of March 1. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the main development of the upward trend from February 22 is expected after the passage of the range of 147.75 - 148.21 and the level of 146.80 is the key support.

Forecast for March 5:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

70aN1QP3-XzLoM2fNw10uU2rTuC0GJ_r_SeBwJNc

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1372, 1.1352, 1.1337, 1.1322, 1.1312, 1.1296, 1.1274, 1.1260 and 1.1232. We are following the downward structure of February 28. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.1322 - 1.1312. In this case, the target is 1.1296, and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1296 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 1.1274 and in the range of 1.1274 - 1.1260 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1232, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1337 - 1.1352 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.1372 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1337 Take profit: 1.1350

Buy 1.1353 Take profit: 1.1370

Sell: 1.1312 Take profit: 1.1296

Sell: 1.1294 Take profit: 1.1274

E1FbSG7YX9lUhTbj_CS-R2wVSlkxMD5SoRJyaiZ7

For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3284, 1.3235, 1.3202, 1.3132, 1.3105, 1.3041 and 1.2999. We are following the downward structure of February 27. A downward movement is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3132 - 1.3105. In this case, the target is 1.3041. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2999, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3202 - 1.3235 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. The target is 1.3284 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of February 27.

The main trend is the downward structure of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3202 Take profit: 1.3233

Buy: 1.3236 Take profit: 1.3284

Sell: 1.3105 Take profit: 1.3045

Sell: 1.3040 Take profit: 1.3000

kXURpd_o09Ub8--CYSnP8Sj-ShUbbJv4DCCpDFVc

For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0107, 1.0092, 1.0065, 1.0047, 1.0022, 0.9968, 0.9952 and 0.9924. We follow the formation of the initial conditions for the top of February 28. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 1.0022. In this case, the target is 1.0047 and in the range of 1.0047 - 1.0065 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.0065 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 1.0092. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0107, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9968 - 0.9952 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the first potential target of 0.9924.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of February 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0022 Take profit: 1.0047

Buy: 1.0065 Take profit: 1.0090

Sell: 0.9968 Take profit: 0.9953

Sell: 0.9950 Take profit: 0.9925

kfi-trisrstCQkH8W0iVS_doVt7p7rdLuvNre9DU

For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale are 112.81, 112.56, 112.44, 112.23, 112.07, 111.81, 111.61 and 111.33. We continue to monitor the ascending structure of February 27. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 112.07 - 112.23 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 112.44 and in the range of 112.44 - 112.56 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 112.81, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 111.81 - 111.61 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 111.33 and this level is the key support for the upward structure of February 27.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.07 Take profit: 112.21

Buy: 112.25 Take profit: 112.44

Sell: 111.80 Take profit: 111.63

Sell: 111.58 Take profit: 111.35

wly5mCtOXnagPmzO3pvRPOLx0d9YTz_s7-1KwxmC

For the currency pair Canadian Dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3485, 1.3440, 1.3414, 1.3347, 1.3317, 1.3291, 1.3262 and 1.3237. We are following the formation of the ascending structure from March 1. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3347 - 1.3373 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 1.3414 and in the range of 1.3414 - 1.3440 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3485, after reaching which we expect a departure to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3317 - 1.3291 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 1.3262. We expect the design of the top of the initial conditions for the downward cycle in the range of 1.3262 - 1.3237.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the ascending cycle of March 1

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3347 Take profit: 1.3372

Buy: 1.3374 Take profit: 1.3314

Sell: 1.3317 Take profit: 1.3292

Sell: 1.3289 Take profit: 1.3262

D0qPRXO_e6SnbMMEu7Iv_0SxkbGj7jiqOf0wsWK6

For the currency pair Australian Dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7153, 0.7127, 0.7109, 0.7071, 0.7052, 0.7026 and 0.7010. We are following the development of the downward cycle of February 27. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7071 - 0.7052 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The goal is 0.7026. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.7010, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7109 - 0.7127 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 0.7153 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7109 Take profit: 0.7125

Buy: 0.7128 Take profit: 0.7152

Sell: 0.7070 Take profit: 0.7054

Sell: 0.7051 Take profit: 0.7026

ndn-TeQrDekHffZ2ocITF-E0AxDXpnz7cCivMqt2

For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 128.27, 127.85, 127.61, 127.29, 127.04, 126.52, 126.36, 126.04 and 125.63. The price is in a deep correction from the uptrend and forms the potential for the downward movement of March 1. The range of 126.52 - 126.36 is the key support for the ascending structure. Its price passage will make it possible to count on a move to the level of 126.04, near which is consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 125.63, after reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 127.04 - 127.29, hence the probability of a downward reversal. The breakdown of 127.30 will continue the development of the upward trend on the H1 scale. In this case, the first potential target is 127.61.

The main trend is a deep correction, the formation of potential for the bottom of March 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.05 Take profit: 127.27

Buy: 127.31 Take profit: 127.60

Sell: 126.36 Take profit: 126.10

Sell: 126.02 Take profit: 125.65

pizl1tVdlr7M5GnQzAfRV8l8j2pZMLohA2634uAS

For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 150.49, 149.47, 149.01, 148.21, 147.75, 147.22, 146.80 and 146.06. We continue to monitor the ascending structure of February 22. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 147.75 - 148.21 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 149.01 and in the range of 149.01 - 149.47 is the short-term upward movements, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 150.49, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 147.22 - 146.80 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 146.06 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of February 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 147.77 Take profit: 148.20

Buy: 148.25 Take profit: 149.00

Sell: 147.22 Take profit: 146.82

Sell: 146.78 Take profit: 146.10

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. March 5. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Business activity index will show the current trend in the

4-hour timeframe

y_9l3vrFsBmuF4EeGYdP23sedBeezfd1iK9CM936

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -175.9711

The EUR / USD currency pair on Tuesday, March 5, fixed below the moving average line and continues the downward movement that started earlier. Against the backdrop of the market's expectations of a US-EU trade agreement, the US dollar received tangible support. As we noted yesterday, this agreement will be beneficial for both sides especially for the States, since they did not have to sacrifice anything. Thus, paired with the euro currency, it turns out that the dollar is stronger since it has substantial fundamental support. Today in the European Union, the index of business activity in the services sector and the composite index of business activity in the industrial sector will be published. These indices are not significant but can show the current trend in the economy of the alliance. Also in the EU, data for retail sales in January will be known. After lunch, at the American trading session, similar European indices will be published. However, in America, the ISM index is also published, which is more important than Markit. From a technical point of view, the trend has changed to downward, so now short positions have become relevant. The Heikin Ashi indicator paints bars in blue, so there are currently no signs of the beginning of an upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has started a downward movement. Therefore, it is now recommended to trade short positions with the first goal of 1.1292. Manually reduce the short positions in the case of a turn up of the indicator Heikin Ashi.

Considering the buy position will be possible not earlier than the reversal of the bulls above the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending again.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 5. Euro managed to hold the position after release of the PMI indices

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers of the European currency managed to keep around the lows of yesterday, gradually building a good position to breakdown the resistance level of 1.1337. Good reports on the PMI indexes, which came out in the first half of the day, may contribute to the further growth of the pair. A fixation above the level of 1.1337 will lead to an upward EUR/USD trend in the region of the maximum at 1.1368, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a decline in the second half of the day, it is best to consider new long positions after a test of new lows around 1.1300 and 1.1279.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Good fundamental data for the euro area has limited pressure on the euro. However, in the second half of the day, reports are expected on the American economy, which may return the demand for the US dollar. The next formation of a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1337 may lead to a new wave of sales of the European currency and update of the minima in the area of 1.1300 and 1.1279, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above 1.1337, the short positions can be safely returned to the rebound from the large resistance of 1.1368, where the bears will try to build the upper limit of the downward channel.

More in the video forecast for March 5

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains below the 30- and 50-medium moving, indicating a bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not give signals for entering the market.

CZ-Ih0UTjTG4FCSLDus0xT_UeEsHo3KIB8DFZps1

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: where will the euro go with an eye on the ECB's position?

For this week, the attention of investors will be focused on the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held on Thursday.

According to a consensus forecast of analysts recently surveyed by Bloomberg, the regulator will again keep borrowing costs unchanged and may even correct interest rate signals, postponing the timeframe for its possible increase due to the deteriorating economic outlook for the eurozone.

tVoYb_5mzhgVhEtV_jYno94R1ps3jdMVjn5RxbB9

It is assumed that at the next meeting of the ECB, the question of the resumption of long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) may also be brought up for discussion, although the decision to provide additional liquidity to banks will probably not be made yet.

"I think that the monetary policy is very far from normalizing monetary policy. The weakness of the eurozone economy, the decline in consumer inflation in the region speak more about the need to mitigate, rather than tighten, the ECB, "said by the economist at Cantor Fitzgerald, Alan McQuade.

Given the possible change in the mood of the ECB, Societe Generale Bank revised downward the forecast for the EUR / USD pair from 1.25 to 1.20 in 2019.

According to the representatives of Societe Generale, "Due to the sharp slowdown in economic growth in key economies of the eurozone, including Germany, France, and Italy, the regulator may postpone the rate increase, and in the summer is likely to resume the program of long-term lending to banks".

"Despite the fact that the euro is exhausted by political turmoil (from Brexit to populists in Italy), we expect that the single European currency will rise in price as the contradictions in the EU are resolved, although its growth will be slower than previously thought," they added.

Meanwhile, Stephen Jen, Executive Director of Eurizon SLJ Capital, believes that the euro against the dollar may fall to a level that was last observed in early 2017.

"By the end of this year, the euro risk falling against the dollar to $1.05 if economic stress from China spreads to Europe, which will not allow the ECB to begin in normalizing the monetary policy. In this case, the United States will retain a dominant position, which will affect the dynamics of the EUR / USD rate", said by the expert.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 05, 2019

analytics5c7e5f59be0ce.png

Overview: The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0019, which represents the double top in the H1 chart. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.0019 to the bottom around 0.9945. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9980 followed by 1.0019, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9940 and 0.9891. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9980 and 0.9891. Hence, we expect a range of 89 pips in coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.9980, for that if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9980, the market will decline further to 0.9891. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9891 in order to test the second support (0.6693). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.0019 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for March 5, 2019

Bitcoin has been quite corrective and volatile after pushing lower towards $3,700 recently with a daily close. Today the price managed to gain certain momentum which lead to certain bullish pressure.

Though the current trend is bearish, having Chikou span breaking above the price line while 20 EMA and Tenkan line breaking above the Kijun line as a crossover indicates that the price is pn track to climb higher. Though certain bullish pressure can already be seen, breaking above the Kumo Cloud resistance or $3,800 is required to have better bullish impulsive momentum along the way. As the price clears above $3,800, it is clear to advance with a target towards $4,000 or higher in the future. As the price remains above $3,500-600 support area, the bullish momentum is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c7e5cbdb23f7.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 05, 2019

analytics5c7e5c884765f.png

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.3130 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3130 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3130. So, buy above the level of 1.3300 with the first target at 1.3524 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.3524 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.3300, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.3524 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3130, a further decline to 1.3080 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 05, 2019

BTC has been trading upwards. Bullish correction is in creation.

analytics5c7e5a4a69486.png

According to the M30 time – frame, we found potential bearish flag in creation, which represents that risk for going long. Key short – term resistance is set at $3.740 (recent lows now became key resistance). Support levels are seen at $3.653 and $3.636.

Trading recommendation: BTC is in consolidation phase and we are awaiting end of the bullish correction to establish new short positions. The breakout of the recent low at $3.675 would confirm downward continuation.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Volatility will increase

Big Picture: a major news is coming.

The currency market quotations are in the range on the major pairs, which is actually since the beginning of November of last year as the market still waits for a trend.

On Tuesday morning, the news about reduction of the Chinese economy forecast increases the chances of a US-China trade agreement and mutual reduction of duties. However, it also reduces the positive effect of the agreement.

The US market has exhausted its growth potential and further move "sideways" before the crisis.

British Prime Minister May is making recent attempts to save an agreement with the EU but the result will most likely be a postponement of the British release date from the EU during the voting in the British Parliament March 12th to 13th (March 29 term). In turn, this is positive for the markets.

On Wednesday, there will be a report on employment from ADP and the Fed report "Beige Book" in the US. Most likely, we will see signs of a slowdown in the US growth.

On Thursday, the ECB meeting on monetary policy exemplified a slowdown in growth as it is visible in the eurozone, which is a challenge for the ECB. In fact, its super soft policy no longer works.

We are waiting for the euro trend, either a breakthrough at 1.1425 or breakdown at 1.1230.

6QfN2mDJ2UY7eU42IGQkhybzs9yZVTXcZQgzd5Ux

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 05, 2019

Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1.282.80.

analytics5c7e578962918.png

According to the H1 time – frame, we found bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky and that a potential corrective rally is possible. Key intraday support is seen at $1.282.80. Intraday resistance levels are seen at $1.289.40, $1.296.78 and $1.311.40.

Trading recommendation: We exited our second half of position with a good profit. Now, we are neutral but with intraday bullish bias if Gold breaks the first resistance at $1.289.40.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 5)

The euro/dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed high volatility of 72 points. As a result, it continues to form a corrective movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation closely approached the range level of 1.1300 / 1.1320, testing the upper limit for strength. The news background did not have any statistics in itself, but considering the information background, we have quite optimistic news regarding the US-China trade agreement. On Sunday, March 3, there were news telling that US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could sign an agreement before the end of March. Naturally, this kind of news can be attributed as a market encouragement, making this one of the reasons for the growth of the US currency. Returning to Brexit, we have another hype; however, this time, it is in the direction of "bribing" labor. What is this about? The British authorities announced the creation of a fund, the funds from which will go to support the weak regions. It is about 1.6 billion pounds. At the same time, as the British media say, this fund was created primarily to help the regions that voted for Brexit. Laborists have already called this plan as an attempt to bribe opposition MPs. According to them, Theresa May is trying to enlist Laborite's support on the Brexit issue in this way. In turn, Labor MP and former Minister of Education, David Lammy, wrote in his Twitter account "Brexit-bribing is a measly bit compared to what the British regions receive from the EU. Mei Foundation - 1.6 billion for 6 years / 266 million per year. The European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund in 2014-2020. - 9, 34 billion in 6 years / 1.56 billion per year. " At the same time, Prime Minister of Ireland, Leo Varadkar, stated that they are ready to provide the UK with additional explanations and assurances in order to ensure ratification of the Brexit agreement by the British Parliament.

analytics5c7e4c3f6b706.jpg

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we had retail sales in Europe, where we received a good growth from 0.3% to 2.2%. In the afternoon, there will be a package of statistics from the United States regarding the sale of new housing, where they expect a decline from 657K to 600K. This will be expected to put pressure on the dollar. At the same time, the US will publish PMI, where growth is expected from 54.2 and 56, 2.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation hovered above the upper limit of the range level 1.1300 / 1.1320, forming a kind of stagnation, but still encountering quite pressure from the sellers. We can probably assume fluctuations in the current values, with the expansion of the range to the lower boundary of the level of 1.1300. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the news background, where in case of negative statistics from the USA we can go to the testing of the range level 1.1300 / 1.1320 in the upstream direction.

analytics5c7e4c7a56e32.png

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Consider buying positions in two ways: first, in the case of entering the 1.1300 / 1.1320 range level, where there may be stagnation; the second in case of loss in bearish interest at current coordinates; price fixing is higher than 1.1350.

- Positions for sale are considered after fixing the price lower than 1.1300.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short, intraday and medium term, there is still an upward interest on the general background of the market.

j3lJLK-HAS5VzQeYrJVHhaAZktd8W45X8saGeoBc

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 5 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 24 points. It is likely to assume that in case of stagnation within the range level, the volatility of the day will remain within the framework of the average daily indicator.

nHni7RLX-80SYI9gwP4nw31DQkaeDqMV77wAZp8e

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis: Daily review for GBP / USD pair on March 5, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

0xMkJl_EQtZbKJKWvvL7H4wRG_TsXrY6766PsDFy

On Tuesday, the price will move down with the first lower target of 1.3135, which is the recoil level of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price will move down with the first lower target of 1.3135, which is the recoil level of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for March 05, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1324. Intraday bullish divergence is in creation, be careful with selling.

analytics5c7e560702941.png

According to the 30M time – frame, we found that every time EUR/USD makes a new low, buyers respond immediately which is a sign that sellers don't have enough power for larger selling. Another sign that the current downward movement is weak is the bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator. Key short-term support is seen at 1.1308 and EUR/USD failed to test that support today. Key intraday resistance is seen at 1.1342.

Trading recommendation: We are neutral on the EUR/USD pair but with the higher risk for the further downward side. We would like to see the successful breakout of resistance at 1.1342 to confirm the upward movement. If we see the breakout, we will open small long position with targets at 1.1380 and 1.1410.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis: Daily review for EUR / USD pair on March 5, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

mjLBFWksLkXzJKzag9YaH5gDG1X2q5gujFq-4hGN

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down with the first lower target of 1.1306, which is the recoiling level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line).

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down with the first lower target of 1.1306, which is the recoiling level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of silver for the week of March 5

Large TF:

The global trend of silver is directed to the "south" of the price field. The last wave construction of the daily scale in the last 3 years shifts the price towards the main trend. Since last fall, a corrective expansion has been developing within its framework.

Small TF:

The bullish wave pattern is formed from September 4. In its structure, from the beginning of the current year, a correctional part is formed in the form of a stretched plane.

eGA68kkL6rZ-OXlmHqueHydtzvbyOh1js-jEzKHA

Forecast and recommendations:

The wave algorithm indicates the imminent completion of the current depreciation of silver. The most expected reversal zone is settlement support, where traders are advised to track the reversal and long entry signals.

Resistance zones:

- 16.20 / 16.50

Support areas:

- 14.80 / 14.50

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 5. Two bearish divergences continue to push the pair down

4h

zQiDwVgJCxJOgIlmxoLnfeV8kwalPNZ2Ca1nv7M4

The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart consolidated below the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. As a result, the process of falling quotations resumed in the direction of the level of 1.1269. Maturing divergences on March 5 are not observed in any indicator on the current chart. Reversing the pair's quotes from the level of 1.1269 will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and a return to the correction level of 23.6%.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

Qy3o0RbbJNdR_wfTFvG6GDaP5B5Ef-vuOgYMiitT

On the 24-hour chart, after the formation of a bearish divergence, the pair continues to fall slowly in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Closing the rate below this level will increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941. The end of the quotations from the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the EU currency and the start of growth in the direction of the correction level 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.1446 if the pair closes above the level of 1.1358 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 23.6%.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.1269, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358, since the pair completed closing below the Fibo level of 23.6%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for March 5. The pound will continue to fall

4h

N8wJs7f4E71do6cSi1HEkCHg2DPc3x0AoLpnhchy

The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart made a U-turn in favor of the US dollar and continues the process of falling in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094. Releasing the pair on March 5 from this level will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.3300. Fixing a pair of quotes under the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continuing falling towards the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

Z2ixscrm-zTSTaMJLUw9V7h5unpUxm4bSZV-Qjal

On the hourly chart, the pair reversed in favor of the American currency and consolidated below the correction level of 100.0% - 1.3217. Thus, the drop in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.3111. There are no maturing divergences on both charts today. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0%.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from January 25, 2019, and February 14, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.3217 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3111 (hourly chart).

The GBP / USD pair can be sold now with the target at 1.3111 and a Stop Loss order above the 100.0% level, as the pair closed below the 1.3217 level (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. Pound bogged down in a swamp of uncertainty

The pound against the dollar continues to be in the so-called "strong bear legs" after reaching an annual maximum of 1.3348. The factors such as lack of progress on the Brexit issue, the weak macroeconomic data of Britain and the strengthening of the US currency are pushing the pair down, despite some resistance from the buyers.

Of course, such movements need to be treated with some caution. Positive news about the prospects of the "divorce process" can turn the pair to 180 degrees and return the price to the 32nd figure in a matter of hours. Another issue is that traders have somewhat changed their attitude regarding the Brexit news flow. Unconfirmed rumors and comments by politicians no longer shake the market. The situation crystallized to four possible options: a) the parliament agrees to the deal; b) Britain leaves the EU without an agreement; c) transfers the release date; d) starts the process of repeated referendum. At the moment, the most viable scenario is the prolongation of the negotiation process until June or July. This idea was approved in advance by the EU leadership.

analytics5c7e44dfc9cd4.jpg

The first reaction of the British currency was extremely positive: a pair of gbp / usd jumped to the middle of the 33rd figure, updating the one and a half year (and, accordingly, the annual) price maximum. However, the euphoria did not last long. Almost immediately, the market realized a fairly obvious fact: the transfer of Brexit does not solve the problem, but only transfers it in time for only a few months. In the meantime, the rhetoric of European politicians remains unchanged: Brussels does not plan to revise the deal and / or provide London with any legal guarantees regarding the back-stop time frame.

In turn, the British parliamentarians reject any other proposed options (for example, the conclusion of a memorandum of a political nature), as they, in fact, do not oblige the EU to any subsequent actions. The situation is still in a dead end, despite the statements of the parties about "constructive negotiations". If we abstract away from such comments, the conclusion suggests itself: the negotiation process regarding the regime of the Irish border is at a zero starting point. It is this fact that forces the British to postpone the date of the country's withdrawal from the EU in order to avoid a "tough" scenario. Nobody is confident about the future prospects of the dialogue: everything will be decided situationally, and quite possibly by the last moment.

In other words, the postponement of Brexit is no longer the "locomotive" of the growth of the British currency. In just a few months, the situation will return to normal. In my opinion, the pound is keeping around 30 figures only for one reason: neither London nor Brussels are interested in the chaotic Brexit, despite the principled positions of the parties. Of course, the ideal option for the pound would be to approve the deal on March 12. However, judging by the rhetoric of the Conservatives and Labor, this scenario is unlikely to materialize.

In general, the news flow regarding the prospects for the March vote has now largely weakened. The information vacuum also puts pressure on the pound, while the incoming data is either veiled and non-specific in nature or thus, indirectly influences the situation.

For example, British journalists recently accused the opposition MPs. But, as it turned out, we are talking about the creation of the Fund, the money from which (about 1.6 billion pounds) will go to support the weak regions of Britain. According to the press, these funds are intended primarily for those regions whose residents supported the country's exit from the EU in a referendum. The government, of course, denied these allegations - because according to them, these funds will be used to create new jobs, and the money will be transferred regardless of the results of voting in parliament. As you can see, this situation is too mediated and twofold in the context of the possible influence on the position of the pound.

Today's speech by the head of the British Foreign Ministry also provided weak support for the pound, primarily because of the "blurring" of the language. He said that London is ready to "show flexibility" as to the form in which guarantees a provided backstop. He also said that "positive signals" are being received from Brussels, which increase the chances for approval of the deal until March 29. We are talking about the signals and parliament conservatives that are ready to show this "flexibility" - Jeremy Hunt did not elaborate on this.

analytics5c7e44b5672c0.jpg

Thus, in the absence of clear and positive news about the prospects for the March vote, or if there are possible compromises between London and Brussels, the gbp / usd pair will continue to slide down to the Bollinger Bands midline on the daily chart (1.3020). But if the "light at the end of the tunnel" still appears (for example, if the Europeans unexpectedly agree to discuss the issue of providing legal guarantees), then the pair will catch up in a matter of hours lost positions with a view to reaching the annual maximum at 1.3348.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Focus of the market: Trade agreement between China and the United States, as well as the Brexit factor

The Reserve Bank of Australia expectedly left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, explaining in its communique as its level fully corresponds to the state of the economy and justified by low and stable inflation, as well as, a strong labor market. In general, the final resolution was positive but could not support the national currency rate.

We have repeatedly pointed out and continue to adhere to this view that one should not expect from the world's largest central banks and other central banks, whose currencies are classified as "majors," decisions to raise interest rates in the current situation. The main reason is the apparent slowdown in the growth of the global economy, as well as, the leaders of the United States, China, and the eurozone.

At the moment, many in the market are hoping that the new decision on trade agreement can correct this situation. They believe that it was trading wars that caused the beginning of the process of slowing global economic growth but, in our opinion, this opinion is erroneous. The trade wars only intensified the processes at the beginning of the economic recession but did not cause them since the problem here is more profound and systemic.

The economic boom observed since the beginning of the tenths contained unhealthy growth at its core after the "cleansing" by the crisis of distortions and shortcomings in the past. It was the result of unprecedented incentive measures, which led only to camouflaging old problems and not solving them. Saving everyone from bankruptcies in a row led only to the fact that the problems generated by the previous decades, which turned out to be a vicious monetary and economic policy, in general, were driven into hiding. The problems of poverty have not been resolved and the pursuit of an economic policy aimed at supporting large business or rather a financial oligarchy which only made the rich richer. Entire countries were under heavy debt burdens, recall at least in Greece. In the United States itself, national debt reached cosmic values.

That is why we are skeptical about the prospects for further growth in demand for risky assets. It is true that it can be local after the signing of a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing, however, this will unlikely fix it.

We expect that in the wake of the decision on Brexit and the new trade agreement between the US and China by the end of the month. The foreign exchange market is unlikely to undergo significant changes and the overall lateral dynamics is likely to continue.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1320 and remains under pressure against the background of the approaching Brexit and investors' departure from risk. If the pair overcome this mark, it can continue its decline to 1.1250.

The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure in the wake of the Brexit situation. If the price drops below 1.3145, it is likely that it will continue to fall to 1.3055.

DbKjMIWQvlyvl5F58v-0JW1v4ATIVTpaCjCenoi2

eIk8cElDMzfRaQj1orrB8_kGP2OBBSy5WxI63G4o

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the European session on March 5. Euro sales may slow down

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers will focus on the return and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1342, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the maximum area of 1.1369, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a further decline against the background of weak data on PMI indices of the eurozone countries, long positions can be viewed on the rebound from the support of 1.1304 and 1.1279. If these minima fall to the area, it is important to pay attention to the possible divergence on the MACD indicator, which will be an additional signal to buy.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The pressure on the euro is slowing down. After yesterday's renewal of large support, which previously acted as the lower boundary of the side channel, buyers gradually began to return to the market. Currently, the bears are required to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1342, which will be the first sales signal that will lead EUR / USD to levels 1.1304 and 1.1279, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of growth above 1.1342, you can immediately sell to rebound from a maximum of 1.1369.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the advantage of euro sellers.

Bollinger bands

Volatility has fallen sharply and a breakthrough of the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1.1342 area may lead to a larger increase in the euro within a day.

1dZF-djT9AKMYETApbzwGKRnAUlOJHwfgNMBif2r

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 5. Pound has exhausted its luck

analytics5c7e2568a6c11.png

Wave counting analysis:

On March 4, the GBP / USD pair lost about 30 bp more. It continues to be in the framework the proposed first wave construction as part of a new downward trend. Thus, I expect a continuation of the decline with the first targets, located around 31 and 30 figures. In the future, I expect a decline in the area of 27 figures. The news background for the pound remains unfavorable, since there is no positive news on Brexit. Perhaps, if they appear, the pound will begin to grow again. But now, everything goes to the fact that the UK release date will be postponed for two months.

Shopping goals:

1.3333 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3489 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward set of waves. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 127.2% is a strong signal. Small sales are now expedient with a protective order above 1.3340. Larger sales are recommended upon receiving negative news for a pound in connection with the development of a downward wave.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (March 5)

Over the past trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 88 points. As a result, it continued to form a corrective movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a primary pullback from Fibo level 38.2 (1.3180), but the joy of the bulls was short. On Monday afternoon, the recovery process started, fixing lower than 1.3180 (Fibo 38.2). The news background had statistics on the construction sector in Britain, where we have a strong reduction from 50.6 to 49.5, which puts pressure on the pound. Information background traditionally had in itself the hype about Brexit. This time, the headlines of well-known publications are full of such statements - "Theresa May bribes Labor." What is this about? The British authorities announced the creation of a fund, in which these funds will go to support the weak regions. It is about 1.6 billion pounds. At the same time, as the British media say, this fund was created primarily to help the regions that voted for Brexit. Laborists have already called this plan an attempt to bribe opposition MPs. In their opinion, Theresa May is trying to enlist the support of the labor on the Brexit issue in this way. In turn, Labor MP and former Minister of Education, David Lammy, wrote in his Twitter account "Brexit-bribing is a measly bit compared to what the British regions receive from the EU. Mei Foundation - 1.6 billion for 6 years / 266 million per year. The European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund in 2014-2020. - 9.34 billion in 6 years / 1.56 billion per year. " At the same time, a statement was received from the Prime Minister of Ireland, Leo Varadkar, that said that they are ready to provide the UK with additional explanations and assurances in order to ensure the ratification of the Brexit agreement by the British Parliament.

AySECtJv6qRMoQ4dfwg59IBUhYrgBsJvAbjVWPCJ

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data from the services sector in Britain, where we expect a decline from 50.1 to 49.9. In the afternoon, there will be a package of statistics from the United States regarding new home sales, where they are waiting for a decline from 657K to 600K.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation managed to break through the long-term Fibo level 38.2 (yellow on the chart), and comes close to the short-term Fibo level 38.2 (green on the chart) - 1.3130. It is probably assumed that the chatter is at 1.3130 / 1.3170, wherein, if the bearish interest persists, we will see a fixation lower than 1.3130, otherwise the stagnation at 1.3130 / 1.3170 may drag on until the end of the day.

qinHCLM37nF7f2epVJmLs79BTrWpw7NDk6VveblF

Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- We consider buying positions in the case of fixation higher than 1.3180, with a prospect to 1.3200-1.3240.

- Sell positions from the previous review were considered lower than 1.3200, with a primary perspective of 1.3180. Now, if we do not have positions, it is better to wait for a clear fixation lower than 1.3130.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there has been a downward interest against the background of the continuation of the corrective move in the short and intraday perspective . On the other hand, the medium-term perspective maintains a cyclical upward interest.

dnT8H88s6sxwyH-7Ty_9IhNMuoZJRcAfoAoxgIEG

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 5 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 30 points. In the case of maintaining the current mood in the quotes movement, the volatility of the day can be compressed within the daily average. Concentration on the information background is preserved.

oSgHDZAwOyO4w4oJkGHLJAoo0tuobxkn-W4zHXIm

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Growing uncertainty brings economic crisis closer

US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, appealed to Congress with a request to raise the national debt ceiling. According to Mnuchin, the current resources of the Ministry of Finance are not enough to avoid a default, they will be enough only for a few months and therefore, the Ministry of Finance should be given the right to expand borrowing beyond current limits to maintain financial stability.

On February 5, the level of US public debt exceeded 22 trillion given the rapidly growing budget deficit and the insufficient effect of tax reform. The United States risks reaching out to a 10% annual government debt increase or more than 2 trillion from the current level.

Despite the fact that the main macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment, consumer demand and GDP growth rates, indicate a sufficient strength of the American economy, the approach of the financial storm is felt more clearly. The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank conducted a large-scale study on measuring uncertainty. Uncertainty is not identical to the concept of risk since even risky projects are usually well calculated on the subject of the distribution of results. First of all, this uncertainty primarily indicates the uncertainty in the distribution of the results either be positive or negative.

The results of calculations look alarming as the current level of uncertainty has been the highest in the sample since 1986.

U_4tMbFg6U9gNLfP5-a6Xi88MTgY9f3KDh9I8LZj

Inevitably, there will be a decline in business activity, as well as decrease in GDP growth, in the labor market and contraction in inflation in the coming years, according to the authors of the study. Nonetheless, a reduction in investment and consumption will lead to a further reduction in tax collection and a sharp increase in the threat of recession.

EUR / USD pair

The economic index for the eurozone, Sentix, has stopped falling which amounted to -2.2 p in March. Despite the fact that the index has been in negative territory for 7 months in a row, the threat of further decline has become noticeably less.

Sentix marks the first signs of economic stabilization in the eurozone as a whole and in Germany.

WrchC0hydKU7Uf3dCi4khGBQa3aDIRP55zJ9bjig

Today is quite an important day for the euro, Markit's PMI indices for the services sector and the manufacturing sector will be published. Forecasts are neutral, as well as for retail sales in January where the forecasts look optimistic.

In general, there is no driver to push the euro in breaking out of a wide range, since two strong factors of uncertainty that can have a significant impact on the economic prospects of the eurozone have still not been resolved. Firstly, Brexit on the UK exit scenario will have a significant impact on future trade, the direction of financial flows and, ultimately to financial stability. Secondly, this is an approximation of the beginning of a trade war with the United States, which obviously, cannot be avoided. The US economy does not have domestic resources for growth and the country's authorities are doomed in an attempt to shift a part of the costs to their main trading partners.

On Monday, the euro updated the local minimum with the threat of further decline which remains as a priority. The support of 1.1308 installed on the eve can stand if the economic data turns out to be no worse than the market today. The Growth above 1.1342 is unlikely to occur.

GBPUSD pair

The index of economic activity in the UK construction sector has been declining for 11 months in a row. This reflects investors' uncertainty about the fact that real estate prices will be able to show a positive trend after Brexit amid falling investments.

The BRC retail sales report also contains a direct indication of the growing uncertainty and the associated fall in consumer spending. Despite the fact that real incomes over the last year have resumed growth, consumers are increasingly aware of the risk of a country leaving the EU without any conclusion and limit costs.

The pound is under pressure and the resumption of growth in the current environment is unlikely. A decline to the support zone of 1.13070 / 90 seems reasonable at the end of the day. Chances of resuming growth or at least going into the lateral range are noticeably less.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com