Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on September 30

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair on September 30

Analysis of transactions

Good data on the Eurozone economy led to a rather decent growth in the European currency, during which the quote rose about 25 pips from the level of 1.1687.

Key indicators, despite the recent surge in coronavirus infections, have shown promising improvements, signaling good economic recovery.

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Today, more economic data are due to be published, and they may more or less support the euro on rising in the markets. However, ECB president Christine Lagarde will also discuss today the EU monetary policy, and whatever stance she delivers, it could impact demand in the market as well.

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  • Buy positions when the euro reaches a price of 1.1751 (green line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.1810. If Lagarde does not announce future changes in the monetary policy, the euro will continue to climb up in the markets.
  • Sell positions after the quote reaches the level of 1.1709 (red line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.1642. If Lagarde talks about easing the monetary policy, pressure on the euro will return.

Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair on September 30

Analysis of transactions

The pound, trading in a flat yesterday, brought losses to traders regardless of the position they were into.

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But today, the bears may get ahold of the market, especially since the UK Parliament has approved the controversial internal markets bill proposed by Boris Johnson, which erases all the previously reached agreements between the UK and EU. This may result in more tension between the two countries, and could accordingly bring the pound to a sharp decline.

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  • Buy positions at a quote of 1.2882 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.2945 (thicker green line on the chart).
  • Sell positions after the pound reaches a price of 1.2833, which could happen on the grounds of a tough reaction and retaliatory political sanctions from the EU (red line on the chart). Then, take profit at the level of 1.2763.
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Gold: investors are looking for a "safe haven"

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Looking for reliable assets comes first in times of extreme market volatility and general anxiety. Thus, investors are desperately searching for a "safe haven" for their savings and much of them consider gold as one.

For many months, the US currency played the role of a defensive asset, but gold is currently a priority, since the USD is going through hard times, showing "roller coaster" movement in the form of alternating ups and downs. It is currently feeling strong, strengthening against most currencies, but its strength is hindering the growth of gold and other commodities.

In connection with the general decline in risk appetite, the global commodity market almost declined. The US currency and fears about inflation knocked it down. The precious metals, primarily silver, suffered the most. Copper, in turn, took the second place among financial instruments whose losses were very strong. Its upward trend from March to August 2020, collapsed. Experts also note the deep subsidence of silver, which has experienced two periods of correction of 20%. This has dealt a sensitive blow to the white metal, which peaked six weeks ago. Such movement of the precious metals market left many investors without funds. It is not surprising that in such a situation, market participants are seriously concerned about finding reliable defensive assets.

Today, "gold" quotes went beyond $ 1900 per ounce. At the moment, it is trading near 1.1887-1.1888, showing a sharp surge in price. However, the sliding decline of the precious metals remains. Yesterday the chaotic dynamics of gold froze temporarily before the key support level of $ 1837. Experts consider this process to be a correction of the rally recorded from March to August this year. It can be recalled that gold approached a strong level, located at two resistance lines last summer, which was followed by decline. As a result, analysts expected gold to further fall to the strong support level of $ 1800 per ounce, but this did not happen. Instead, it has formed an additional support line near $ 1837 that kept it from declining due to subsequent corrections and declines.

Despite the negative trends in the precious metals market, there are a number of factors that positively affect the price of gold. Analysts said that they contribute to the gold's growth in the short and medium term. In particular, the growth drivers of the precious metal include the possibility of a second wave of the COVID-19, the upcoming US presidential elections and the probability of weakening USD. The current volatility is driving the demand for safe assets, with gold becoming the leader among them.

Experts believe that the current year is marked by the priority of gold. The tense situation in the world has also a positive effect on the pricing of gold and it is said to be one of the best investment assets and a safe haven for investors. It can be noted that in some national currencies, the price of gold breaks records. However, gold and silver's growth in the short term may be impeded by lower inflation expectations and dollar's strengthening.

However, there is some risk about the recent correlation of gold with the shares of leading companies, which can complicate trading. This option is most relevant in the run-up to the US presidential election. But there is no room for pessimism in the medium-and long-term prospects in the precious metals market. According to the representative of the World Gold Council, investment demand, which continues to gain momentum, is crucial for the gold's price.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 30, 2020

The pair traded upward on Tuesday and almost tested 1.2910 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line). Today, the price may roll back down. According to the economic calendar, dollar news is expected at 12:15, 12:30, 14:00, and 14:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move downward from the level of 1.2861 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target at the historical support level 1.2769 (white dotted line). In case of testing this line, an upward pullback is possible with the target of 1.2903 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move down from the level of 1.2861 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target at the historical support level 1.2769 (white dashed line). In case of testing this line, an upward pullback is possible with the target of 1.2903 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line).

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.2861, the price may continue to move down with the target at the historical support level 1.2769 (white dashed line). In case of testing this line, the downward trend may continue with the next target of 1.2721 - a 61.8% pullback level (red dotted line).

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 30. COT reports. Lagarde's speech can weigh down the euro, but buyers

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The euro strengthened during the US session, and the US data on the consumer confidence indicator did not provide significant support to the dollar. The 5-minute chart clearly shows how the bulls took resistance at 1.1688 in the morning, settling on this area made it possible to update weekly highs. The 1.1734 target was reached, from where I advised you to open short positions in anticipation of a downward correction, which happened.

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The current situation is rather difficult, since the 1.1734 level is vague and it is not entirely clear how things will proceed. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech could put pressure back on the pair. Therefore, I recommend opening long positions from 1.1734 only when a false breakout forms on 1.1734, with the main goal of rising to a high of 1.1779, which is where I recommend taking profit. Consolidating above 1.1779, due to good fundamental data for the eurozone countries, will make it possible to increase long positions with the goal of updating 1.1826. In case EUR/USD falls below the 1.1734 level in the first half of the day, I recommend waiting until support at 1.1688 has been updated, slightly above which the moving averages pass, and opening long deals from there immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day. It is also possible to buy the euro immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.1640, testing it will lead to a reversal of the entire upward correction that has been observed this week.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 22 showed that both long and short positions increased, but there were more of the first ones than the latter, which led to an increase in the delta. Apparently, buyers are attracted to such a low euro rate for the first time in three months, even despite the risk of a second wave of coronavirus infection across Europe. Thus, long non-commercial positions increased from 230,695 to 247,049, while short non-commercial positions only increased from 52,199 to the level of 56,227. The total non-commercial net position also increased over the reporting week to 190,822, against 178,576 a week earlier, which indicates bullish market sentiment in the medium term. The more the euro falls against the US dollar, the more attractive it will be for new investors.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers need to rehabilitate, and this can only be done by returning EUR/USD to the support level of 1.1734. Testing it from the bottom up on the reverse side forms a new entry point into short positions with the main goal of falling to the support area of 1.1688, which is where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the bulls. The 1.1640 level will be a distant target, where I recommend taking profits, but this is only applicable if Lagarde mentions the need for additional stimulation of the European economy in the face of a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic. If the EUR/USD pair continues to strengthen its positions, then you should return sell positions after the pair grows and a false breakout appears in the resistance area of 1.1779. I recommend opening short deals immediately on a rebound only from a larger high of 1.1826, counting on a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which implies that an upward correction will form in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

The breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1760 will help the euro grow. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.1688.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 30. COT reports. Pound unbothered by the adoption of UK Internal Market

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

News that the British Parliament had approved the Internal Market Bill only led to a small spike in volatility, but the pair remains in a horizontal channel. Thanks to this, several more signals for entering the market appeared. Yesterday morning, a fairly good signal for buying the pound from the 1.2834 level appeared on the 5-minute chart. The pair increased to 1.2885 and the pound gained around 50 points. This was followed by short deals from 1.2885, which subsequently brought the pound back to 1.2834. Forming a false breakout at this level led to new long deals in GBP/USD, which is clearly seen on the chart.

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The current situation has not changed in any way compared to the previous day. Buyers will wait for a breakout and settle above the resistance of 1.2885, which will form a new signal to enter long positions with the main goal of updating this week's high in the 1.2962 area, which is where I recommend taking profits. The 1.3089 level will be a distant target, but this is very difficult to achieve. UK GDP data for the second quarter will provide support, although we don't expect much from it. In case the pound falls, forming a false breakout at the 1.2834 level will be a signal to open long positions. In case bulls are not active in this range, it is better to postpone long deals until a larger low at 1.2766 has been updated, slightly above which the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the bulls. It is also possible to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the monthly low of 1.2689, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 22 did not record significant changes in the market, as everyone took a wait-and-see attitude and are watching how the economy will react to the next phase of growth in the incidence of COVID-19 and how the situation will develop further. Brexit. Most likely, the pressure on the pound will gradually return as the second wave of coronavirus spreads and the negotiations on a trade deal between the UK and the EU become more complicated, where there is not even a hint of a compromise between the parties. Short non-commercial positions slightly decreased from 41,508 to 40,523 during the reporting week. Long non-commercial positions also decreased from 43,801 to 43,487. As a result, the non-commercial net position remained practically unchanged at 2,964 against 2,293 weeks earlier.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

A lot will depend on how the EU reacts to the UK's draft Internal Market Bill, which was adopted yesterday. The pound will be under pressure if Brussels resorts to the promised political measures, allowing sellers to quickly regain control of the market. From a technical point of view, they need a breakout and have to settle below support at 1.2834. Testing this level on the reverse side forms a good entry point for short positions, which will quickly extinguish buyers' optimism and cause the first support level of 1.2766 to be updated, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.2689 level will be a distant target, testing it implies bringing back the bearish trend for the pound. If GBP/USD continues to grow, then it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for a false breakout to form in the resistance area of 1.2885. It is possible to sell the pair immediately on a rebound only when the weekly high has been updated in the 1.2962 area, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates uncertainty regarding the direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2834 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the pound. The breakout of the upper border in the 1.2875 area will lead to a new wave of growth in the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

There is no clear winner between the debate of Trump and Biden. AUDUSD and GBPUSD pairs are expected to make a correction

Global markets were under pressure throughout this day as they awaited the first round of debate between J. Biden and D. Trump that was held tonight in line with the presidential elections.

The US has again a strong impact on the dynamics of assets with its internal agenda, forcing investors to be very careful, which leads to a drop in stock indices and an extremely vague movement in the currency market. On the other hand, markets expected some clarification of the situation in the political struggle between Democrats and Republicans, but received even greater uncertainty, since the debate did not reveal a clear winner and according to some political analysts, it even somewhat lowered Trump's chances of winning the election.

In turn, financial markets reacted by continuing the ambiguous dynamics. The Chinese stock market rose amid mixed economic data. The manufacturing business activity index (PMI) in September rose to 51.5 points against the forecasted 51.0 points in August. But on the contrary, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) from Caixin declined from 53.1 points to 53.0 points.

Markets will continue to endure the result of America's first debate today, however, it is not the only event that will attract attention. The revised UK GDP data are due today – the indicator is expected to decline by -21.7% on annual terms and by -20.4% on monthly terms. If the numbers turn out to be even worse, the pound will be under pressure, which is already stuck due to the unsolvable Brexit situation.

Germany's retail sales and employment figures, Eurozone consumer inflation and ADP job creation figures, and updated US GDP figures for the 2nd quarter will also be published today. It is expected that the figures of new jobs in September increased by 650,000 against 428,000 a month earlier, due to the fact that the US economy fell by 31.7% in the second quarter. Data from the index of pending sales in the real estate market will also be presented. It is expected that they will grow by 3.2% in August, against the 5.9% growth earlier.

At the same time, investors will closely follow the speech of the ECB's head, Lagarde and Fed members Bowman, Kashkari and the publication of values on oil and oil products in the US over the past week.

In general, today will be filled with events, including the publication of economic statistics. On this wave, we will still have an extremely high volatility, and new concerns related to COVID-19 and the uncertainty of the outcome of the elections in America will continue to loom over the markets.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is making a downturn on the wave of rising demand for the dollar as a safe haven currency and falling demand for risky assets. A price decline below 0.7110 may lead to a further decline to 0.7015.

The GBP/USD pair is declining below 1.2880. It still remains in the range of 1.2680-1.2880 amid uncertainty about the consequences of Brexit, as well as the publication of extremely negative GDP data, which will be released today. If the price does not rise above the level of 1.2880, it could lead to a decline to 1.2680.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 30, 2020

The pair traded upward on Tuesday but failed to reach 1.1765 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line). Today, the price may roll back down. According to the economic calendar, euro news is expected at 07:20, 08:55, and 09:00 UTC, and dollar news is expected at 12:15, 12:30, 14:00, and 14:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move downward from the level of 1.1745 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target of 1.1690 - a 38.2% pullback level (blue dotted line). In case of testing this line, the downward trend may continue with the next target at the support level 1.1661 (black bold line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move down with the target at 1.1690 - a 38.2% pullback level (blue dashed line). In case of testing this line, the downward trend may continue with the next target at the support level 1.1661 (black bold line).

Another possible scenario: upon reaching the level of 1.1690 (blue dashed line), the price may begin to move up with the target at 1.1765 - a 38.8% pullback level (red dashed line).

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/30/20

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The EUR/USD pair has formed a quite impressive correction over the past two days. This is more than 130 points of the growth from the local low of 1.1612. Considering the scale of euro's weakening from September 1, the interest of a downward trend still prevails in the market, which means that the current correction can serve as a platform for resuming the flow of short positions* (sell positions*).

Based on the obtained data on finding the quote, we can assume that if the price consolidates below the side channel 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910, a decline will most likely occur to the range of 1.1650-1.1600, which will lead to a weakening of the European currency.

An alternative scenario will be considered if the correction move is held, where consolidating the price above the level of 1.1775 may lead to the end of the downward cycle from September 1.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair, like the Eurocurrency, is in a correctional stage from a local low of 1.2674, where there was a formation of stagnation within variable borders 1.2822/1.2900 yesterday.

A price movement in a narrow amplitude makes it possible to accumulate trading forces, which will most likely lead to a local surge in activity if one or another border breaks down.

Based on the obtained data on finding the quote, we can assume that the fluctuation within 1.2822/1.2900 will end soon, where the breakout method will be considered the best trading tactic.

- Buying a pair is recommended at a price above 1.2905, with the prospect of moving to 1.2925-1.2950.

- Selling a pair is recommended at a price below 1.2820, with the prospect of moving to 1.2770 - 1.2720.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 30, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

After making a new local high at the level of 1.2926, the GBP/USD pair has been consolidating in a narrow zone around the wave high, but eventually the market has made a Doji candlestick pattern and started to reverse. The current intraday technical support is seen at the levels of 1.2816, 1.2786. 1.2768 and 1.2747. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market is about to enter the overbought zone, so the level of 1.2926 might be a top of the bounce. Only a sustained move above the level of 1.3000 would put the bulls back in control over the market. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3187

WR2 - 1.3072

WR1 - 1.2894

Weekly Pivot - 1.2783

WS1 - 1.2601

WS2 - 1.2494

WS3 - 1.2312

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 30, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the level of 1.1728, just a little above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level seen at 1.1742. Bears are in now control of the market and more lower lows should be seen soon because the momentum is coming off the overbought levels. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1710 and 1.1696. Only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.1738 would put bulls back into control again. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2011

WR2 - 1.1939

WR1 - 1.1752

Weekly Pivot - 1.1683

WS1 - 1.1498

WS2 - 1.1408

WS3 - 1,1239

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 30, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

ETH's inflows to exchanges fell 53% in less than a week, which could set an alarm for DeFi traders. Influence into exchanges fell from $ 3.15 million on September 21 to $ 1.48 million at the time of writing. While the decline in ETH sustained on the exchanges can be viewed as a bearish signal, the price has dropped less than 5% in the past 30 days.

The Ethereum network has also been a place of great activity lately. In fact, the same can be attributed to DeFi traders' active market share. While this increases coverage and creates high online demand, it underscores the fact that Ethereum's liquidity is critical to DeFi.

The decline in ETH liquidity could have a direct impact on ETH miners and traders investing in DeFi projects. Before DeFi surged, unrealized gains were driven by ETH's price action. However, when the charges on the ETH network hit the new ATH along with the increased activity of DeFi. While the impact of the decline in ETH liquidity is not yet visible on the spot exchanges, the same is visible on the derivatives exchanges.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the ETH/USD pair had made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the level of $367.58, the market has reversed and fell out of the ascending channel around the level of $355. The local low was made at the level of $350.14, but the target for bears is seen at the level of $345.40. The price is now consolidating in a narrow horizontal range, so if the level of $345.40 is clearly violated, then the next technical support is seen at the level of $332.38. The momentum had reversed as well and now is on the neutral level, pointing south.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $446.64

WR2 - $410.95

WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99

WS1 - $319.88

WS2 -$284.46

WS3 - $256.92

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 30, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev said information leaked in the recent FinCen leak confirms the existence of the crypto industry. According to the leak, the world's leading financial institutions have cleared more than $ 2 trillion in "suspicious" transactions. Deutsche Bank alone settled over USD 1.3 trillion of this amount. Trenchev said:

"The first thing I feel is regaining rights because, as everyone has been saying for years, all this Bitcoin and money laundering in one breath. We've heard it from regulators, politicians, bankers, almost everyone. money laundering is still the US dollar and it is still the current financial system:

Trenchev also highlighted the fact that the only company that was listed for any cryptocurrency affiliation was OneCoin, and even that was a stretch in his opinion. As for bankers, Trenchev believes there is little incentive to limit money laundering and other illegal activities as the punishment appears rather forgiving. In fact, such activities can be very profitable. Nexo also submits "various reports of suspicious activity" to relevant regulatory authorities around the world. Trenchev said about 4% of Nexo's transactions are flagged. The company is also forced to comply with US sanctions and blacklisted countries such as Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the BTC/USD pair rally had been terminated at the narrow supply zone located between the levels of $10,890 - $10,940, the market pulled-back to the level of $10,586 and then bounced again to test the short-term trend line breakout level seen at $10,845. The bulls were not strong enough to break back above the trend line and the price is moving towards the level of $10,586 again. The momentum remains neutral, but it the bearish pressure intensify, the sell-off might continue towards the level of $10,430 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,934

WR2 - $11,451

WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558

WS1 - $10,238

WS2 -$9,737

WS3 - $9,392

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 30? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair as a whole continued to move up last Tuesday night and only pulled back by several tens of points towards the morning. First of all, the pair's quotes left the descending channel, and, secondly, they did not start a downward correction. The descending channel retained its bearish ambitions, and now we are forced to announce that the trend has changed to an upward one. Nevertheless, as we mentioned in yesterday's article, a downward correction is still required to consider long positions. At the moment, the MACD indicator is near its highest values, so it is extremely inconvenient for it to generate new buy signals. Moreover, we can't build an upward trend line right now, since there is simply no second support point. In general, the pair really needs a downward correction, and after that you can finally consider opening new positions.

The fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains complex. To date, several rather important events are planned that may affect the course of trading. Recall that we and all traders need a downward correction, which means that the dollar must strengthen. One of the most important events has already happened. The first round of debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden took place in Cleveland, America. They passed in a "quiet", "cozy", "almost home" atmosphere. Joe Biden asked the incumbent president to "shut up" several times and called him "Putin's puppy." Trump constantly interrupted his opponent and was also not distinguished by polite behavior. There was no particularly strong reaction to this event. And thank God. Novice traders can now focus on economic events. Namely, the speech of the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, the publication of data on unemployment in Germany, the ADP report on the change in the number of employees in the US private sector, as well as the publication of US GDP for the second quarter in its third estimate. Let's immediately separate the "flies from the cutlets". The GDP indicator is unlikely to have any impact on the pair's movement, if it does not differ greatly from the forecast (-31.7%). Lagarde has been delivering a speech quite often lately and everything will depend on whether she tells the markets something new and interesting. Naturally, she will touch upon the coronavirus topic and the possible impact of its second wave on the European economy. The ADP report is the most important report to date and well reflects the state of the US labor market. The number of employees is expected to increase by 648,000. If results turn out to be better than the forecast, the US dollar will finally be able to get the support it needs to start a correction. In general, there will be a lot of events today, so you are advised to conduct extremely cautious trading in any case.

Possible scenarios for September 30:

1) Buy positions have now become relevant since traders managed to overcome the upper line of the descending channel. However, as we have said more than once, the pair needs to correct. Therefore, we recommend that you open buy orders but not before this very correction. At the same time, after it has ended, it may be possible to build an upward trend line. The targets for the upward movement are 1.1771 and 1.1801.

2) Sell positions have lost their relevance after breaking the integrity of the descending channel. The pair might even resume a downward trend now, but the technical picture speaks in favor of a variant with an upward movement. Therefore, we need a new downward trend in order to consider short deals. It is unlikely to appear in the near future.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 30, 2020

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GBP/JPY is trading sideways within the 135.25 - 136.22 area. We are looking for a final dip to 135.25 to complete this sideways consolidation and then push higher again through resistance at 136.22 for a rally to at leat 137.20 and possibly even closer to 138.35.

Support is seen at 135.25 and then at 134.62 which should protect the downside for the expected break above resistance at 136.22.

R3: 136.58

R2: 136.22

R1: 135.81

Pivot: 135.25

S1: 134.98

S2: 134.62

S3: 134.38

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 133.51 and we have moved our stop higher to break-even at 133.51.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 30, 2020

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EUR/JPY has rallied from the 122.34 low and the clear break above the resistance-area between 123.24 - 123.42 confirms that wave 2/ has completed and wave 3/ higher now is in motion for an ultimate break above the former peak at 127.02.

In the short term, we expect one more rally to jus above 124.25 to complete wave i and set the stage for a correction in wave ii close to 123.30 before the next impulsive rally higher.

R3: 124.65

R2: 124.25

R1: 123.96

Pivot: 123.73

S1: 123.60

S2: 123.45

S3: 123.30

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.95 with our stop placed at break-even at 122.95. We will take 50% profit at 124.25 and wait for a new buying opportunity near 123.30.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 30, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro gained 78 points on Tuesday, almost reaching the lows of August 21 and September 9, and it might think about going back and falling to 1.1550. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slows down and marks a downward reversal. Setting the price above 1.1754 may push the euro higher to the MACD line to the 1.1880 area. This is an alternative scenario.

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The price has settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, but the Marlin oscillator is planning a reversal, and is currently moving sideways. The near-reversal situation on the daily timeframe may be decisive. If the price moves under the MACD line, below 1.1700, it opens the first target at 1.1650. Consolidating below the level opens the second target at 1.1550.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 30, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has created a dual growth situation this morning, which suggests a reversal towards the 0.7190 level without achieving this target. This circumstance is due to the delta in the upper lines of the trading channel of the Marlin oscillator of the daily chart. The signal line of the oscillator can make a reversal from any of them, either from the blue line or from the green line. This shows us how false the growing movement can be if it begins to develop. The price staying above 0.7190 with Marlin entering the zone of positive values will be a sign of price growth. The first target will be the 0.7270 level .

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The price has settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, but the Marlin oscillator is marking a reversal, at the moment its signal line is moving horizontally. In a short amount of time, the price may return to the area under this line and settle below it. In this case, and this is the main scenario, the aussie will aim for 0.7065. Consolidating below it opens the second target at 0.6970.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 30, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair added 17 points yesterday, this morning it stopped before the balance indicator line on the daily chart. Now the market needs to shift the upward trend, bring the price above this line, and then the task of overcoming the price channel line at 106.40 will be much easier. The Marlin oscillator is moving into the zone of positive values, which strengthens the growth scenario. The first target of the yen at 106.00 is the 100.0% Fibonacci level reinforced by the MACD indicator line.

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The Marlin signal line cannot break away from the neutral border line on the 4-hour chart, which does not help the price in any way before attacking the 106.00 level. Even the very probability of attacking this level is in doubt. The price is likely to continue to consolidate and gain strength before breaking out to 106.40.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 30. COT report. Buyers do not see themselves above 1.2915 yet.

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair was in a narrow price range between the Senkou Span B line and the resistance level of 1.2915 on September 29. The technical picture has not changed after the previous day. Buyers have taken some important steps forward, but now they need to go beyond the 1.2915 level to expect something more. The bears have a good chance of returning to the market, but they need to take the pair back below the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. The general trend is more uncertain, as there is no pronounced upward trend now.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, responding to a strong rise on Monday and a horizontal movement on Tuesday. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound showed that non-commercial traders got rid of buying the pound and opened Sell-contracts (shorts). A group of commercial traders got rid of huge amounts of both longs and shorts of the pound. We then concluded that the pound sterling is now, in principle, not the most attractive currency for large traders. The new COT report showed absolutely minor changes for the "non-commercial" group. Buy-contracts (longs) fell by 2,000 while Sell-contracts decreased by 1,500. Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders remained practically unchanged for the reporting week (September 16-22). The British pound continued to fall, which can be considered a consequence of the previous reporting week, when the net position of non-commercial traders greatly decreased, by 11,500 contracts. No changes in the rate of the pound/dollar pair on the 23rd, 24th, 25th, which will be included in the next report. Thus, a long term decline in the pound's quotes is quite questionable, although the pound is still the most unattractive currency in the foreign exchange market.

Quite big news for the British pound on Tuesday, September 29. Nevertheless, the overall fundamental background remains very strong for the pound. Today or tomorrow, and in principle every day, the market may receive news from the negotiations between Brussels and London, news about the parliamentary vote on the "Johnson Bill", as well as any other information about the relationship between the UK and the EU, current and future. All this information is extremely important for the pound. Both the UK and the US will publish their third quarterly GDP estimates today. The United States is expected to fall by 31.7%, and Britain - by 20.4%. There will be other important macroeconomic reports in America, as well as the debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Therefore, volatility may sharply increase during the day, since there might be a large amount of potentially important news.

We have two trading ideas for September 30:

1) Buyers continue to push the pair upward and crossed the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines the day before yesterday, and also reached the first resistance level of 1.2915. Thus, you are advised to stay in long positions while aiming for the resistance level of 1.2915 and the resistance area of 1.3004-1.3024, while the pair remains above the Senkou Span B line. Take Profit in this case will be from 50 to 140 points. The current fundamental background is simultaneously bad for both the pound and the dollar.

2) Sellers failed to keep the pair below the critical line. So now they need to wait for the price to settle below the Kijun-sen line (1.2807), and only after that should you resume trading downward while aiming for the support area of 1.2636-1.2660. Take Profit in this case can be up to 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 30. COT report. Dollar needs support, but it will be very difficult

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair continued to correct throughout the day on the hourly timeframe on September 29. And by the end of the day, it reached the upper line of the descending channel, which still continues to maintain a downward trend. Buyers have taken a major step towards the reversal of the downward trend, but they still need to overcome the channel itself, as well as the Senkou Span B line located very close to it, which is also a strong obstacle. At the same time, the bears retain good chances of renewing their downward movement. To do this, they just need to keep the pair inside the downward channel. Take note that the growth was not that strong for the last couple of days, only about 120 points. For greater confidence in bringing back the downward track, we advise you to wait until it settles below the critical line.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which indicates that the upward movement will continue. The euro/dollar fell by about one and a half cents last reporting week (September 16-22). Recall that the previous Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that the "non-commercial" group of traders, which we have repeatedly called the most important, sharply reduced their net positions. Thus, in general, the downward movement that began later on was sufficiently substantiated. The only problem is that it started late. The new COT report, which only covers the dates when the euro began its long-awaited fall, showed completely opposite data. Non-commercial traders opened 15,500 new Buy-contracts (longs) and almost 6,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for this group of traders has increased by around 9,000, which shows that traders are becoming bullish. Accordingly, the behavior of the EUR/USD pair and the COT report data simply do not match. For the second week in a row. However, if you try to look at the overall picture, you can still take note of a very weak strengthening of the bearish sentiment, so the COT report allows a slight fall in the euro. The question is, will it continue to decline or is it already over? The pair even managed to rise by 40 points from September 23-29. Therefore, there are no such changes again.

Practically no important messages and events in the European Union and the United States on Tuesday. Markets seem to be fully focused on the current debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the results of which will be announced later in the morning. Although this topic is not economic, nevertheless, everything in the United States now passes through the prism of elections. The US is set to release an important report today. The ADP report on changes in the number of employed in the private sector with a forecast of +648,000. If results turn out to be better than forecasts, then we can expect the dollar to strengthen. In all other respects, the US dollar can hardly count on support tomorrow. Personal consumption spending indices are forecast in negative territory, the third estimate of US GDP for the second quarter is unlikely to be better than the second...

We have two trading ideas for September 30:

1) Buyers continue to put pressure on the pair, but these efforts are still not enough to break the current trend. Therefore, we recommend considering long positions if the pair settles above the descending channel with the Senkou Span B line (1.1763) with targets at 1.1798 and the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1910, not earlier. Take Profit in this case will be from 20 to 110 points.

2) Bears try to keep it under control despite the fact that the euro has been growing for three whole days. Still, the latest COT report warns that the dollar's gains could be very short-lived. There is a possibility that the downward movement will resume as long as the price is within the channel. You are recommended to trade bearish below the Kijun-sen line, while aiming for the support level of 1.1538. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 30. A new round of negotiations of the EU-United Kingdom.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 101.2881

On Tuesday, September 28, the GBP/USD pair was in a much weaker upward movement than a day earlier. Buyers kept the pair above the moving average line, thus, the prospects for a new upward trend remain. At the same time, the bulls failed to break through the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.2878, thus, the upward movement stalled near the specified mark. Thus, the technical picture is now ambiguous and it is quite possible to resume the downward movement since the moving average remains very close to the current location of quotes. However, not only the technical picture remains ambiguous. The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair is probably one of the most interesting right now. There is quite a lot of information coming from the UK, a lot of information coming from the European Union, however, there is no need to talk about the United States. However, all this information is negative in 90% of cases. Negative for the dollar and negative for the British pound. So the equation looks like this: whose negative is more negative? The last few weeks remained for the US dollar, however, we remind you that before that, it was the British pound that grew for a long time. It increased when there were no special reasons for this. It's just that everything was bad and hard in America, thus, the pound grew. However, there was no positive news from the UK during that time period. However, even now, when the dollar began to grow, no positive news comes from the US. Moreover, for traders on the US dollar, a very dangerous situation has developed, which is called "uncertainty". No one really knows who will win the presidential election and what awaits the country in the future. Thus, in principle, the fall of the national currency before the elections is absolutely normal for any country. In general, both the dollar and the pound have very unsightly prospects.

Unfortunately for traders, the probability of going north is now equal to the probability of going south. Thus, you only need to rely on technical analysis when making trading decisions. As for the fundamental topics that are important for the pound and the dollar, they remain the same and there is not much news on them. Maros Sefcovic, Vice-President of the European Commission, made comments on the "behavior" of the UK today. In a nutshell, his speech was filled with colorful epithets that condemned London's behavior with its "internal market" bill. Mr. Sefcovic said that the protocol on the regime on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is part of the already agreed and ratified Brexit Treaty and London has no right to violate it, change it unilaterally or choose which points to comply with and which not. Thus, Sefcovic recommends that Britain should withdraw the bill as quickly as possible and "to restore the tarnished reputation". If London continues to push through this bill, any further negotiations will be very difficult or even impossible, and Brussels has already begun to study the possibility of applying to the international court of justice. Sefcovic also said that at the moment the UK's position on the Northern Ireland border does not meet the expectations of Brussels at all. Many points of the protocol are not being implemented, and many are not being implemented in full or late. It is noteworthy that yesterday the next round of negotiations on a trade agreement began, which may come into force after the end of Brexit. And on the same day, a second reading vote on the "Johnson bill" was to be held in Parliament. Thus, during the course of today, traders will probably receive a huge number of important and interesting messages from Britain and the EU that relate to the relationship between the Kingdom and the Alliance.

Also, a huge amount of important information should come from overseas today, as the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump was supposed to take place. So in the morning, all the news feeds will be full of information from that show. According to preliminary information from some media outlets, Donald Trump has significantly reduced the gap from Joe Biden in recent months, although we do not believe this information, since Trump and his administration have not done anything that could raise ratings recently. The constant and daily promises of the imminent invention of a vaccine do not count. Thus, the topic of US elections is beginning to gain special meaning and importance. After all, the election is just over a month away.

From a technical point of view, the bulls now need to overcome the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.2878. However, stomping around this level for a whole day suggests a rebound and resumption of the downward movement, since the moving average is located dangerously close. Thus, the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will already warn traders about the dangerous possibility of resuming the downward trend. For the third trading week, in addition to the US debate between presidential candidates and Brexit negotiations, a fairly large number of important macroeconomic publications are also planned. In the first place is the report on UK GDP for the second quarter. Although market participants are already prepared for these figures, they can once again emphasize the difficult economic situation in the Foggy Albion. There will also be important macroeconomic publications in the United States. In general, the day promises to be very interesting, and volatility can be very high.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 114 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Wednesday, September 30, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2747 and 1.2975. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal about a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2756

S3 – 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2878

R2 – 1.2939

R3 – 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe and broke the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in the longs with the goals of 1.2939 and 1.2975 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.2756 and 1.2695 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 30. Donald Trump is losing the trade war with China and is going to start a war with

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 236.1671

The US currency continued to fall in price against the euro on Tuesday, September 29. Thus, this is probably all that the bears were able to do in the current market conditions. The pair's quotes are already fixed above the moving average line, thus, the trend has already changed to an upward one. Thus, the upward trend can now resume. Further, from our point of view, this will be a logical development since the euro now looks really stronger than the dollar. In Europe, it is also "not without problems". They officially announced the beginning of the second "wave" of the COVID-2019 epidemic. The inflation rate remains below zero. Thus, the fundamental background remains on the side of the euro.

If you try to describe the entire policy of Trump in one word, the concept of "war" will not fit. Still, under Donald Trump, we should pay tribute because America did not get involved in new international military conflicts. Or at least not as actively as under other presidents. Moreover, Trump plans to return home many American soldiers who are now stationed in many hot spots on the planet. In general, under Trump, America's military actions were really not the most active. Therefore, the concept of "conflict" is much more appropriate. The American President got into conflicts with such pleasure that he seemed to get satisfaction from the very process of inciting them. Trump quarreled with the Democrats, with the press, with epidemiologists (when the pandemic began), with the Pentagon, with the Fed, personally with Jerome Powell, with China, with the European Union, and many others. Perhaps its biggest quarrel is the trade war with China. It began two years ago and was designed to offset the injustice of the Chinese towards the American people. After two years of this war, it is safe to say that the injustice was not leveled. First, the US trade balance continues to decline. More precisely, the trade deficit of the United States continues to grow. Therefore, based on this indicator alone, we can make a clear conclusion that the White House did not achieve what it wanted. Moreover, China's trade surplus has grown in recent years. Of course, both countries have a huge number of other countries as trading partners. Therefore, it is impossible to say unequivocally that Washington's actions led to the exact opposite result. Trump has repeatedly stated that from trade relations with China, America loses billions of dollars and gets nothing. However, in addition to this, Trump has repeatedly stated that America is winning the trade war. Although, according to many experts, this is absolutely not the case. First, as a result of this trade war, you can specify the claims of 3,500 American companies against the US government itself. In their opinion, the government had no right to impose duties on imports from China. Among those making claims are Tesla and Ford. Secondly, many Chinese goods as a result of duties have become much more expensive in America, which hits the pockets of the lower strata of the population, who also suffered in 2020 from the "coronavirus crisis". Third, China immediately found other markets for the part of the goods that stopped going to the States due to reduced demand. Fourthly, some authoritative publications claim that Beijing is not fully fulfilling its obligations under the "first phase" of the trade agreement. Fifth, China has started to increase its own high-tech production and export of industrial products. Thus, it is absolutely unclear who benefited from all these perturbations, however, one thing is clear: Washington did not get the desired result.

However, Trump is not going to stop there. If he is re-elected for a second term, he is going to start a war with American manufacturers who have located their factories in China and other countries with cheap labor. According to Trump, these companies should return their production to the United States and create jobs in the United States. Those companies that do not want to return to their home country may lose government orders and taxes may be significantly increased for them. It should be understood that any production in America is much more expensive than in China. Thus, on the one hand, Trump's intentions are good, the American President wants to create jobs for Americans, on the other hand, if we were talking about a difference in the cost of production of 15-20%, then with the help of taxes, companies could be forced to return to America. However, the difference in cost can be from 2 to 5 times. Accordingly, if American manufacturers return home, the demand for their products may decrease significantly. Most experts also note that Trump does not want to bring manufacturers home because he understands that this is impossible since he is a businessman. He wants manufacturers to leave China and stop strengthening the main competitor of the United States in the international arena. However, in almost any case, both the trade war with China and the likely war with American manufacturers will again affect both the economies of China and the United States.

All this uncertainty in the future makes traders and investors very cautious about buying the US currency. It is absolutely unclear how Trump's second cadence may end, however, the results of the first one are visible to the naked eye. And they can hardly please anyone. Nevertheless, Trump's ratings have grown slightly in recent months and now, according to many opinion polls, the gap between Biden and Trump is no more than 5-6%. Whether this is true or not is hard to say, since there are errors in any opinion poll. And in our case, the error of 2% is a lot. However, the first round of debates between a Republican and a Democrat will take place in America today, so we will soon get a huge amount of important and interesting information.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 30 is 71 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1666 and 1.1808. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal the end of an upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1658

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1780

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1.1902

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed above the moving average line. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions with targets of 1.1780 and 1.1808 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders again if the pair is fixed back below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1666 and 1.1597.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: dollar participates in the debate

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The first election debate between the presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place in the United States today.

Opinion polls show that Biden is currently leading the way: on average, he is seven points ahead of his rival nationwide.

"If the debate weakens Trump's position and Biden maintains leadership, this could lead to investors abandoning the dollar," Mizuho Bank said.

However, analysts say that if Trump manages to close the gap, it will only increase the uncertainty about the outcome of the election and support the greenback.

"Since mid-September, the dollar has been recovering. However, it is not yet clear what the trend will be in October, "said Mizuho Bank experts, noting that market participants also closely follow any news about fiscal stimulus in the US.

Last night, Democrats unveiled a new $2.2 trillion economic aid bill to combat coronavirus, which was called a compromise measure.

"If this bill is approved before the November elections, it will support the risk sentiment," OCBC Bank said.

Traders are also awaiting the release of statistics to assess the state of the world's largest economy ahead of the elections. So, on Wednesday, the final estimate of US GDP in the second quarter will be released, and on Friday the US employment report for September will be released.

If the United States publishes positive macro statistics, it will help strengthen the dollar.

So far, hopes for a consensus between Republicans and Democrats on another package of aid to the US economy are pushing stocks up, and the greenback - down.

The dollar faced strong resistance around 94.6 points. Bulls have been attacking this level since the middle of last week, but at the beginning of this week the USD index is trading below this level again. According to experts, it is worthwhile to closely monitor the dynamics of the dollar and place bets on its further growth or a new fall already taking into account these dynamics and confident consolidation above or below the 94.6 mark.

The continued risk appetite of investors made it possible for the EUR/USD pair to overcome the 1.1700 level.

The euro was supported by data published on Tuesday, according to which the composite index of business and consumer confidence in the euro area (ESI) in September rose to 91.1 points from 87.5 points recorded a month earlier.

Further recovery in demand for risky assets will be a bad thing for the dollar and will aim for the EUR/USD pair at 1.1800.

Meanwhile, concerns about the epidemiological situation in Europe and the uncertain outcome of the US presidential election may return pressure on the major currency pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com