Trading plan for EURUSD for July 03, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD pair is trading very close to our proposed target of 1.1270 at this moment of writing. It is safe to exit short positions at the current price (1.1285) or at 1.1270 levels and wait for further trading signal appearance. Looking at the wave structure, it is more probable to bounce off the Fibonacci 0.618 support at 1.1270, depicted above. The downswing is projected Fibonacci extensions at lower levels though (1.1234). Hence, we shall remain aside/flat to see where support is coming in. Ideally, prices should stay above 1.1180 support but there could be a possibility of a further drop lower. If it does, we would bring up a medium-term update on the 4H chart here. On the flip side, a bullish bounce at 1.1270 levels would warrant price action proceeding towards a new high above 1.1412 levels. For now, take profits on the short positions taken earlier and remain flat.

Trading plan:

Take profits on short positions now or at 1.1270 levels and stay flat.

Good luck!

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 3. Composite PMI data could move the euro

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The situation has not changed in comparison with yesterday's forecast for the second half of the day. The upward correction is still limited by the resistance of 1.1307, and the bulls' task remains the same for the time being. A breakthrough and consolidation above this range will lead to further growth of EUR/USD with an update of a high of 1.1338 and 1.1364, where I recommend taking profits. If the downward movement continues further, then it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown from the support of 1.1275, or to rebound from the new monthly low near 1.1239.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Further movement in the morning will depend on reports on the services sector and composite PMI indexes of the eurozone countries. In the event of a disappointing data scenario, another false breakout in the area of 1.1307 will be a signal to continue the downward trend, which will push EUR/USD to a low of 1.1275 and will lead to an update of the larger support at 1.1239, where I recommend taking profits. If the demand for the euro returns, then the upward potential will be limited by the resistance of 1.1338, however, it is best to open short positions to rebound immediately in the resistance area of 1.1364.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the formation of a bearish market.

Bollinger bands

In case of an upward correction, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1310 will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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USDCHF: USD to sustain bullish pressure over CHF. July 3, 2019

The US dollar was able to regain momentum over the Swiss franc. The greenback was trading below 0.9700. Ahead of the NFP report this week, the US currency may extend its gains. However, some analysts think that the US dollar is unlikely to set a long-term rally.

Trade wars put pressure on the US economy. The Fed is considering to lower its key rate. The greenback is likely to be quite volatile ahead of the Fed's meeting. The Swiss franc fell considerably after the Swiss government declared to ban Swiss shares on EU exchanges. This news had a negative impact on the bullish sentiment of CHF buyers. A skirmish over stock market access between Switzerland and the European Union risks escalating into a broader political battle over sovereignty that could do lasting damage to relations.

The CHF Retail Sales report has been recently published. It showed a decrease to -1.7% from the previous value of -0.8% which was expected to grow to 0.6%. The Swiss CPI report will be published tomorrow. The reading is also expected to indicate a drop to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.3%.

What is more, the US dollar is pressurized by uncertainty over the key rate decision. Donald Trump constantly criticizes the Fed's approach to monetary policy. Recently, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro blamed the Fed's rate hike for the economic slowdown and expect the Fed to cut the rates to get everything back in track. Fed's Mester expressed skepticism that a US interest rate cut is the right move until there are more signs the economy is moving to a truly weaker path. Markets are also widely expecting the central bank's next move will be a cut by its July 30-31 policy meeting in light of weaker inflation and uncertainties including a US-China trade war. After its most recent meeting, the Fed last month released economic projections revealing that nearly half of the 17 policymakers now showed a willingness to lower borrowing costs over the next six months.

Ahead of the NFP report, the US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI report is going to be published. The reading is expected to fall to 56.1 from the previous figure of 56.9 and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to grow to 140k from the previous figure of 27k. Moreover, US Factory Orders report is also expected to show an increase to -0.4% from the previous value of -0.8%.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the 0.9850 area after breaking and retesting the area with strong bullish momentum supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA. It is expected to push higher towards 1.00 area in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.97 area with a daily close, further upward pressure is likely to occur.

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EUR / USD H4 vs GBP / USD H4 vs EUR / GBP H4. A comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 03, 2019 Analysis of

Here are the options for the development of the movement of EUR / USD vs GBP / USD h4 vs EUR / GBP h4 from July 3, 2019 - a comprehensive analysis of the instruments.

Minuette (H4)

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Euro vs US dollar

From July 03, 2019, the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

-> resistance level of 1.1315 (lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork);

-> support level of 1.1295 (the initial line of the SSL Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the level of support of 1.1295 (the starting line SSL Minuette operational scale fork) -> continuation of the downward movement of EUR / USD to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1280 <-> 1.1250 <-> 1.1220) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.1195 <-> 1.1180 <-> 1.1160).

On the other hand, in case of the breakdown of the level of resistance of 1.1315, the development of the movement of the single European currency will continue to the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.1315 <-> 1.1340 <-> 1.1365) with the prospect of achieving the objectives -> initial line of the SSL (1.1380) Minuette operational scale fork and equilibrium zone (1.1400 <-> 1.1430 <-> 1.1460) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

Details of the movement of EUR / USD are presented at the animated graphics.

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Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

The development of the movement of the currency of Her Majesty's GBP / USD from July 3, 2019 (with a fair probability) will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2615 <-> 1.2560 <-> 1.2510) of the Minuette operating scale fork. More details of this movement are presented in the animated chart.

In case of the breakdown of the lower boundary (support level of 1.2510) of the 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette operational scale, the GBP / USD movement can be continued to the Median Line of the Minuette (1.2485) and the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 (1.2440) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational fork.

Meanwhile, considering that the GBP / USD returns above the upper boundary (resistance level of 1.2615) of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette, the movement development of this currency instrument will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.2635 <-> 1.2665 <-> 1.2700) and the equilibrium zone (1.2700 <-> 1.2760 <-> 1.2825) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement are presented in the animated graphic.

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Euro vs Great Britain Pound

As in the case of EUR / USD, the development of the movement of the "main" cross-instrument EUR / GBP from July 3, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

-> resistance level of 0.8970 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operating scale fork);

-> support level of 0.8955 (upper limit of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette).

The upward movement of EUR / GBP can be continued in case of breakdown of the initial SSL line (resistance level of 0.8970) of the Minuette operating scale fork, and the targets of this movement will be -> SSL start line (0.8995) of the Minuette operational scale fork <-> control line UTL Minuette (0.9009).

On the other hand, in the case of the breakdown of the level of support of 0.8955, the movement of cross-instrument will result in a channel of the a Median Line Minuette again (0.8955 <-> 0.8943 <-> 0.8930), and perhaps it will be the place to be broken by the lower boundary (0.8930) of this channel, while the downward movement of EUR / GBP will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (0.8905 <-> 0.8880 <-> 0.8860) and the equilibrium zone (0.8900 <-> 0.8880 <-> 0.8850) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the EUR / GBP movement are presented in the animated graphic.

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 03/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Argo Blockchain, a mining operator in the UK, exceeded its own expectations in the second quarter, the company said in a newly released report.

Argo, which previously claimed to have benefited from the rise in Bitcoin prices, said revenues would continue to rise compared to previous estimates.

The company now expects to generate 161 Bitcoins, or cryptocurrency assets worth 1.38 million British pounds, in June, based on Bitcoin's price of USD 10,817.16 as at June 30, 2019.

This is an increase of about 101% compared to the results of mining in May and roughly constitutes an 81% production margin. According to the company, this proves that it is one of the most productive crypto miners on the market.

The capacity of extraction from existing equipment has improved along with the rapidly growing price of Bitcoins, which increased by about 24% since the last operational update on June 3, 2019.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair rally higher has extended above the short-term trendline resistance around the level of $290.00 and the last local high was made at the level of $300.17. This means the bounce momentum is getting stronger and soon the price might test the nearest technical resistance located at the level of $304.22. If this level is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls is the technical resistance at $324.09.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $16,315

WR2 - $14,938

WR1 - $12,895

Weekly Pivot - $11,624

WS1 - $9,683

WS2 - $8,320

WS1 - $6,345

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 03/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) seemed to change his mind 180 degrees for issuing digital currencies, according to a new press interview.

The head of BIS, Augustin Carstens, actively supported the creation and publication of digital versions of national fiat currencies:

"Many central banks are working on it, we are working on it, supporting it. It may happen that the market will exist earlier than expected and we will have to be able to provide central bank digital currencies," he said.

Comments aroused the curiosity of many people. They only appeared a few months after Carstens strongly advised against issuing such digital currencies. In a speech in March, he mentioned various types of risks for banks considering such behavior, claiming that innovations should not come too fast.

In addition, both BIS and Carstens are strong critics of decentralized cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. Last year, he described Bitcoin as being lacking in the possibility of acting as money and urging young people to "stop trying to create money."

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD might have completed the full corrective cycle that started at the level of $13,698. The form of the correction is the ABC Irregular Flat and it was completed at the level of $9,670 yesterday. Currently, the market is rallying higher towards the top of the old wave B of the lesser degree and if this level is clearly violated the chances that the correction is terminated are very high. Please notice this is still the uptrend and the current correction is the local correction in the uptrend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $16,315

WR2 - $14,938

WR1 - $12,895

Weekly Pivot - $11,624

WS1 - $9,683

WS2 - $8,320

WS1 - $6,345

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larget correction is just around the corner, as all the major impulsive waves have been completed.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 3 - 2019

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GBP/JPY has gabbed lower in Far East trading, which is disappointing and has invalidated our positive bias. The break below 136.24 indicates that the corrective decline from 148.87 has not completed yet and a final dip closer to 134.50 is needed to complete wave 2 and set the stage for wave 3 higher.

Resistance is seen at 135.81 and again at 136.43.

R3: 136.78

R2: 136.43

R1: 135.81

Pivot: 135.75

S1: 135.35

S2: 135.00

S3: 134.50

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 136.50 was hit. We will only buy GBP at 134.65.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 3 - 2019

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The decline from the 123.37 peak has been much deeper than first expected. That does raise the question whether the rally from 120.79 is the start of a new impulsive rally or just a temporary pause before renewed downside pressure is seen. The judge of that is support at 120.94. As long as this short-term important support is able to protect the downside, we will look for more upside pressure and a break above minor resistance at 121.84 will call for a new rally towards 123.36 and 124.16 next.

If, however support at 120.94 is broken, the we must regard the rally from 120.79 as an X-wave and a new low closer to 120.55 should be expected

R3: 122.24

R2: 122.13

R1: 121.84

Pivot: 121.69

S1: 121.40

S2: 121.19

S3: 120.94

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 121.60 was hit. We will re-buy EUR here at 121.50 with our stop placed at 120.90

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 03,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French FinalServices PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI will be released. The US will publish such economic data as Natural Gas Storage, Crude OilInventories, Factory Orders m/m, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, FinalServices PMI, Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, ADP Non-FarmEmployment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1346. Strong Resistance: 1.1339. Original Resistance: 1.1328. Inner Sell Area: 1.1317.Target Inner Area: 1.1290. Inner Buy Area: 1.1263. Original Support: 1.1252. Strong Support: 1.1241. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1234. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, July 03,2019

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Today Japan will not release any economic data while the US will pusblish economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Crude OilInventories, Factory Orders m/m, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, FinalServices PMI, Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, ADP Non-FarmEmployment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:108.17. Resistance. 2:107.96. Resistance. 1:107.75. Support. 1:107.48. Support. 2:108.27. Support. 3:107.06. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 03/07/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken below the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2611 and is heading lower. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2559 and 1.2529. The key support is seen at the level of 1.2505 and if this level is violated the downtrend will accelerate. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2605.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2870

WR2 - 1.2829

WR1 - 1.2757

Weekly Pivot - 1.2708

WS1 - 1.2629

WS2 - 1.2585

WS1 - 1.2508

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.2505 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down and the recent rally up is the first sign the trend might be reversing. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2775 and only if this level is violated, there is a chance for the trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 03/07/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is heading lower towards the level of 1.1260 (61% Fibonacci retracement). During the last wave down the price has made a new local low at the level of 1.1275 and then bounced. The weak and negative momentum support the bearish short-term outlook, but the 61% Fibo might be a good level for a temporary pull-back higher. Nevertheless, due to the weak momentum, the outlook still favors the downside.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1462

WR2 - 1.1438

WR1 - 1.1392

Weekly Pivot - 1.1368

WS1 - 1.1333

WS2 - 1.1302

WS1 - 1.1259

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.1181 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down, but there are signs of the trend reversal and the Ending Diagonal breakout to the upside.

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USD/CHF approaching support, potential bounce!

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USDCHF is approaching our first support at 0.9817 where we might be seeing a bounce above this level.

Entry: 0.9817

Why it's good : Horizontal overlap support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 0.9764

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.9904

Why it's good: horizontal pullback resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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NZD/USD bounced nicely off its support, potential rise!

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Price bounced nicely off its support where we expect to see a further rise.

Entry : 0.6660

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

Stop Loss : 0.6606

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.6721

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance

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USD/JPY bounced up support, possible bounce!

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Price is bouncing up 1st support at 107.573, a bounce could occur.

Entry :107.573

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 108.12

Why it's good :horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci extension

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on July 3, 2019

AUD / USD pair

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar rose by 30 points despite the decrease in the RBA rate from 1.25% to 1.00%. This is partly due to the expected decision and partly from the external calm background after Monday's anxiety that resulted in losing more than 60 points. Technically, the correction occurred from the support of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart but the general trend remains declining. The Oscillator Marlin did not go out of the "bears" zone on H4.

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The scenario can also be realized with growth to the upper boundary of the price channel - 0.7040. This can occur in the case of accented lethargy on European currencies or even in their correction. Of course, the growth of the "Australian" will be short-term in this case. For a mid-term price reduction, it is necessary to go below the strong support of the price channel line and the MACD line below 0.6950 on the daily scale chart. The target reduction is on the support of the embedded line at 0.6843 on the daily price channel. From a practical point of view, it is advisable to resume trading only on Friday, which is the day of the publication of US employment data.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 3, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro ended yesterday with a symbolic 2 point decrease. There weren't any new incentives for the movement. Tomorrow is a public holiday in the US, but investors began to prepare ahead of time. On the part of adjacent markets, an equilibrium was observed - oil fell by 4.78%, gold went up by 2.53%. The yields on US government bonds went down, which, in general, speaks to the continuing market tensions.

Today, the United States expects mixed economic data. In the private sector, according to ADP estimates, 140 thousand new jobs are forecasted in June against 27 thousand in May, but the trade balance in the May estimate is expected to deteriorate from -50.8 billion dollars to -53.2 billion, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the past month it is expected to be 56.1 against 56.9 earlier, and also the volume of factory orders for May may be reduced by another -0.4% after the April decrease by -0.8%. It seems that there will be no active action today. We are waiting for a sideways trend in the range of yesterday. Price will be kept above the MACD line on the four-hour chart.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 3, 2019

GBP/USD

At the end of yesterday, the pound sterling fell by 46 points, keeping the falling mood to a target of 1.2530. The Marlin oscillator signal line on the daily negative number area is in the declining trend zone. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line never came out of its own extended consolidation. This signals a possible consolidation and pricing ahead of tomorrow's holiday in the United States. Perhaps the price will consolidate below the level of 1.2610. Taking into account the lethargy of the Marlin oscillator on H4, it is possible that the price will exceed this level. But in general, the trend for all indicators is decreasing, as a result, we are waiting for the pound at the price of 1.2530. Consolidating the level opens the target of 1.2305 - support for the daily price channel.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 3

Forecast for July 2:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1334, 1.1312, 1.1299, 1.1269, 1.1257, 1.1238, 1.1208 and 1.1191. Here, the next targets for the downward movement are determined from the local structure on June 28th. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.1269 - 1.1257. In this case, the goal is 1.1238. Price consolidation is near this level. Breakdown at level 1.1236 will allow us to count on a pronounced movement to the level of 1.1208. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1191, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1299 - 1.1312. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1334. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - a local downward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1300 Take profit: 1.1311

Buy 1.1313 Take profit: 1.1334

Sell: 1.1257 Take profit: 1.1238

Sell: 1.1236 Take profit: 1.1210

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2664, 1.2628, 1.2611, 1.2583, 1.2555 and 1.2514. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 25th. Continuation of the movement to the bottom, is expected at level 1.2583 after the breakdown. In this case, the target is 1.2555. Consolidation is near this level. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2514, after reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.2611 - 1.2628. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2664. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2611 Take profit: 1.2626

Buy: 1.2630 Take profit: 1.2664

Sell: 1.2581 Take profit: 1.2557

Sell: 1.2553 Take profit: 1.2516

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0008, 0.9980, 0.9938, 0.9905, 0.9858, 0.9831 and 0.9802. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward cycle from June 25. At the moment, the price is in the correction. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.9905. In this case, the target is 0.9938. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9938 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9980. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.0008, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Consolidated movement is possible in the corridor 0.9858 - 0.9831. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.9802. This level is a key support for the top. Its price will have to develop the downward structure. Here, the potential goal is 0.9738.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9905 Take profit: 0.9936

Buy : 0.9939 Take profit: 0.9980

Sell: 0.9829 Take profit: 0.9802

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.09, 109.56, 109.21, 108.70, 108.29, 107.80, 107.44 and 106.77. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward structure from June 25. At the moment, the price is in deep correction and is close to canceling this structure, for which a breakdown of the level of 107.44 is necessary. In this case, the potential target is 106.77. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 108.29. Here, the first goal is 108.70. The breakdown of which will allow us to expect to move to level 109.21. Short-term upward movement and consolidation is in the corridor 109.21 - 109.56. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 110.09. The movement to which is expected at level 109.56 after the breakdown.

The main trend: the ascending structure of June 25, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.30 Take profit: 108.70

Buy : 108.74 Take profit: 109.20

Sell: 107.41 Take profit: 107.00

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3180, 1.3142, 1.3115, 1.3069, 1.3027, 1.3001 and 1.2961. Here, we continue to monitor the local downward structure of June 25, at the moment the price is in the correction zone. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at level 1.3069. In this case, the goal is 1.3027. Price consolidation is in the corridor 1.3027 - 1.3001. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2961, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3115 - 1.3142. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3180. This level is the key resistance for the development of the upward structure. Its breakdown will allow to count on movement towards the potential target - 1.3235.

The main trend is a local downward structure from June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3143 Take profit: 1.3180

Buy : 1.3182 Take profit: 1.3230

Sell: 1.3067 Take profit: 1.3027

Sell: 1.3001 Take profit: 1.2961

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7097, 0.7077, 0.7039, 0.7012, 0.6972, 0.6954 and 0.6927. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential movement for the downward movement of June 28. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7012. In this case, the goal is 0.7039. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level 0.7040 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 0.7077. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 0.7097. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement in the corridor of 0.7077 - 0.7097, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possible in the corridor 0.6972 - 0.6954. Breaking the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6927. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the upward structure on June 18. The correction stage is the formation of potential for the bottom of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7012 Take profit: 0.7037

Buy: 0.7041 Take profit: 0.7077

Sell: 0.6952 Take profit: 0.6930

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.28, 121.89, 121.67, 121.41, 121.22, 120.92 and 120.48. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure and at the moment we are following the downward cycle of July 1. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after passing by the price of the noise range 121.41 - 121.22. In this case, the goal is 120.92. Consolidation is near this level. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 120.48, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 121.67 - 121.89. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 122.28. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.67 Take profit: 121.87

Buy: 121.94 Take profit: 122.28

Sell: 121.22 Take profit: 120.94

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.31, 135.87, 135.65, 135.24, 134.99 and 134.50. Here, the price has canceled the development of an upward trend. Currently, we are following the downward cycle of July 1. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.24 - 134.99. The breakdown of the last value will allow to expect movement towards a potential target - 134.50. After reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 135.65 - 135.87. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 136.31. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.65 Take profit: 135.85

Buy: 135.90 Take profit: 136.30

Sell: 135.24 Take profit: 135.00

Sell: 134.95 Take profit: 134.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will the Fed lower the rate in July?

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Financial market participants are overwhelmed with emotions, and they are trying to run ahead of the statistics. Derivative contracts are still confident in easing the Fed's monetary policy at a meeting in July, although they reduced the likelihood of its reduction by as much as 50 bp from 40% to 21%. Despite a strong slowdown in business activity in the US manufacturing sector, US stock indexes reached a new record high, and the S&P 500 in the first half of the year showed the best dynamics in two decades. The euphoria over the resumption of the US-China trade negotiations swept the markets, but not for long. Moods have deteriorated, since Donald Trump again began to bend his line - "America first." In his opinion, the terms of the trade agreement should be most beneficial for the United States, and not for China.

At first glance, the slowdown in the index of purchasing managers in the US manufacturing sector increases the chances of a Fed rate cut. This should have a negative impact on the dollar, but the EUR/USD pair cannot consolidate above the 13th figure. The fact is that everyone perfectly sees the advantages of the US economy over other countries that are weaker compared to it. World PMI for the second month in a row ends up in the red zone. This was not seven years. Economic expansion in America has reached a new record high.

The current expansion lasts twice as long as the average. No need to be surprised at the strong dollar and record highs of the S&P 500. US stock indexes look better than world peers. The divergence of their dynamics was recorded last year due to trade disputes between the United States and China. Now one of the main drivers of the rally in the US securities market is the expectation of a rate cut by the Fed.

But here everything is very difficult. So, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Tom Barkin announced the existence of two worlds. In the first, more realistic, consumer spending is strong, and business investment is flat due to prolonged trade disputes. There is no need to reduce the rate.

In the second world, company managers are starting to lay off workers, which reduces consumption and the economy is slowly growing. In the case of reducing its rate of recovery to less than 2%, the US central bank will have to resort to monetary expansion.

It is possible that the Fed officials will decide to wait after all, while the ECB, led by super-Mario, will lower rates. Lead economist Philip Lane says that ultra-soft policies have previously shown themselves to be the best, so the central bank can return to them. Klaas Knot, positioning himself as a "hawk", notes the indisputable fact of low inflation. The head of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, is confident that the ECB's CPI forecast of 1.6% for next year is far from true.

Differences in economic growth and the monetary policy of the two largest regulators are the most important drivers of the EUR/USD pair, which push it down. An impressive report on the US labor market for June is needed to develop the success and get the main pair out of the consolidation range of $1.12-1.14.

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However, today the representatives of the ECB have mentioned that the regulator is not planning to return to quantitative easing just yet. On this message, the euro surged and reached a new intraday high. Officials prefer to wait for data on the economic situation in the region. According to Bloomberg, at the July meeting, the regulator may change its rhetoric and the text of the final statement.

It is worth noting that the ECB often uses a similar method of communication with the market. Thus, it checks the reaction of traders to one or another information.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Why OPEC+ extended the deal - SEB

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According to analysts of the largest Swedish bank Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB), OPEC countries and independent oil producers have easily agreed to prolong the deal to limit oil production for several reasons. The main one is that the continuation of the agreement has a positive effect on the current state of the largest oil producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, and strengthens their position in the global oil market.

Over the past 28 years, since 1991, the share of OPEC in the oil market has dropped to its lowest levels. At the same time, the countries of the cartel are trying to keep prices at a favorable level within the OPEC+ deal. SEB analysts pay attention to the fact that the share of key participants in the agreement on limiting production - Russia and Saudi Arabia - remains almost unchanged. Analysts believe that the main reason for the decline in the share of OPEC is a drop in production in Venezuela and Iran.

SEB believes that the indicators of oil production in Russia, despite compliance with the transaction, exceed the average values over the past four years. As for Saudi Arabia, its production is slightly less than the average four-year value. In such conditions, the key players in the oil market feel comfortable, making a decision to extend the transaction and pushing other cartel members to this. SEB is sure: the only thing that is required from Saudi Arabia and Russia is to stop increasing production following the growth in demand. If such a scenario is implemented, the price of oil will remain in the range of $60– $70 per barrel, which will favorably affect all market participants, analysts say.

Recall, on Monday, July 1, the OPEC+ agreement on current conditions was extended for 9 months. The decision of the cartel and independent oil producers was expected, but the cost of oil was adjusted by 2%. The correction in oil prices was affected by a reduction in the severity of the trade conflict between the United States and China, experts believe. The current situation has made a positive impact on the black gold market, although the possibility of extending the transaction and its impact on prices were incorporated into the price of oil.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. July 2. Results of the day. Exit from the EU without a "deal" will cost the UK £90 billion

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 112p - 45p - 63p - 72p - 74p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 73p (70p).

Brexit is increasingly overgrown with new details, expectations and forecasts. Today, Britain's Treasury Secretary Philip Hammond held a speech, he said that Brexit without a "deal" would cost the government 90 billion pounds, which would be a crushing blow to the economy. According to Hammond, whoever takes the chair of the prime minister, if he does Brexit without an agreement, he will lead the country to a catastrophe. At the same time, the main candidate for the post of prime minister, Boris Johnson, is ready to offer the EU a free trade option after Brexit. If the EU refuses such a proposal, the UK will be released without any agreement. According to Johnson, if the European Union is serious, then it should begin negotiations. Thus, we see that Johnson is not particularly afraid of Brexit without a "deal". At the same time, the second contender for the prime minister post, Jeremy Hunt, said that the government provides financial assistance worth $25 billion to small businesses, fishermen, farmers, in short, everyone who could suffer from a "hard" Brexit. That is, if it becomes clear that Brexit will be unorganized, then the UK government will "smooth out" customs duties. Interestingly, Philip Hammond has already noted that there is no money for such programs in the country's budget. It is difficult to decide who to believe and believe in the promises of Hunt and Johnson at all. One thing is clear: the uncertainty around Brexit has not decreased one bit. This process is increasingly complicated and confusing. So far, the pound sterling has suffered, which has resumed falling against the US dollar, and the British economy. But these are just flowers in comparison with the blow that can be inflicted in the event of a disordered exit.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair continues its downward movement. Thus, traders are advised to sell the pound sterling with targets of 1.2591 and 1.2521 before the MACD indicator turns upwards, which will indicate a correctional turn.

It will be possible to buy the British currency when the pair has consolidated above the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the upward trend may resume with the first target of a pivot-level of 1.2713.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. July 2. Results of the day. The producer price index in the European Union warns of a possible slowdown in inflation

4-hour time frame

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 68p - 43p - 34p - 42p - 90p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 55p (45p).

The European currency started the minimum upward correction on the second trading day of the week, to which the MACD indicator has not even had time to react to, so it is weak. During today, only one macroeconomic report was published - a report on producer prices in the eurozone for May. It turned out that this index slowed down from 2.6% to 1.6% y/y. Such a report is a very bad forerunner of the future report on inflation in the EU, which has already slowed down to 1.2%. Thus, in the future, inflation could be the basis for the ECB to reduce the key rate in the negative zone. This indicates a knockout for the euro. However, let's not talk about sad things until this happens. Today there is information that the ECB is not ready to cut rates in July. However, it is noted that monetary policy easing is almost inevitable, and if it does not happen in July, it will happen in September. Recall that the trade issue between the United States and the EU is not over. Trump has claims to Brussels. Regarding duties on the products of the automotive industry, the decision was postponed to a later date, but Trump is not satisfied with the issue of subsidizing the Airbus concern and has expanded the list of European goods that may be affected in the future. Needless to say, for the euro currency, the introduction of any duties would be a low blow, as well as for the entire economy of the European Union. Based on this and taking into account the fact that the trade war will affect the US economy, we still believe that the European currency will continue to be the outsider in the euro/dollar pair.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started a weak correction. Thus, it is now recommended to expect its completion and re-sell the euro with targets of 1.1270 and 1.1239.

It is recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair no earlier than when the price consolidates above above the critical Kijun-sen line. However, bulls will need good fundamental reasons to do so.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com