Fundamental Analysis of EURJPY for May 2, 2017

EURJPY is currently in an impulsive non-volatile bullish trend which showed small retracement along the path. Today EUR had several macroeconomic reports: Spanish Manufacturing PMI was quite as expected at 54.5 (vs. 54.3 forecast), Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate increased to 11.7% (vs. 11.6% expected), and EUR Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 9.5% (vs. 9.4% forecast). On the other hand, Japan's Monetary Base report was published with a negative value at 19.8% and BOJ Core CPI report was also negative at -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Overall both currencies are in a negative economic report streak, but EUR seemed to be quite ahead of JPY recently and if the EUR manages to sustain these economic reports growth against JPY, then we may see many upward moves in this pair in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has moved upside without any good retracement to 20 EMA. Currently, we are expecting the price to move down towards 121.10 and then if we see any bearish rejection off the level, we will be looking forward to the price to move up towards the 125.00 resistance area.

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GBP/USD analysis for May 02, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2900. According to the 4H time frame, the price has broken the bullish flag formation, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The short – term trend is bullish. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The first upward target Is set at the price of 1.3025.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2935

R2: 1.2955

R3: 1.2985

Support levels:

S1: 1.2875

S2: 1.2860

S3: 1.2830

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for May 02, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 112.20. According to the 4H time frame, the price almost reached projected target (symmetrical triangle) at the level of 112.40. The short – term trend is bullish. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. If the price breaks the level of 112.40, USD/JPY may visit the level of 112.80.

Resistance levels:

R1: 112.10

R2: 112.40

R3: 112.90

Support levels:

S1: 111.40

S2: 110.90

S3: 110.60

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for May 2, 2017

GBP/USD has been in good bullish momentum since the break above 1.2800 area. This pair has been quite volatile after the break and is expected to be bullish all the way towards 1.3370 area. Today GBP had Manufacturing PMI report which was published with a positive figure at 57.3 which was expected to be at 54.0. On the other hand, USD Total Vehicle Sales report is going to be published today which is expected to be at 17.1M which previously was at 16.6M. GBP is currently quite stronger than USD as of the positive economic report today and if the USD report comes positive we might see a good amount of volatility in the pair as well.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently just above 1.2750 to 1.2800 support area. Yesterday bears were quite powerful than the bulls and as a result, the price closed at a new lower high. Currently, as of GBP positive economic report, today GBP is observed to have a good momentum on the upside but a daily close will decide the further move in this pair. Currently, as of 20 EMA is quite far from the currency price, it is expected that the price will reverse back down towards 1.2800 before making any further move up towards 1.3370 resistance level.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair keeps trading downwards from the level of 0.9994. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term, testing 0.9882 or lower. This week, the bearish channel is still strong because the pair dropped from the level of 0.9994 which coincides with the ratio of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels to the bottom around 0.9898. The price is still set below the area of 0.9959 and 0.9925. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9925 followed by 0.9959, while daily support 1 is found at 0.9882. Besides, the level of 0.9925 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as the minor support today. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the USD/CHF pair is declining from the new resistance line of 0.9959 towards the first support level at 1.9925. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.9925, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below it. Sell below 1.9925 with the first target at 0.9882 and the next one at 0.9847. The bearish scenario suggests that the pair will settle below the spot of 0.9994. Otherwise, if the USD/CHF pair manages to break out the level of 0.9994, the market will rise further to 1.0044 (resistance 2).
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Technical analysis of USDJPY for May 2, 2017

The USDJPY has reached an important resistance area and I expect a reversal from current levels at least towards 110. The trend remains bullish in all time frames and I still do not have a bearish signal confirmation.

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Orange horizontal line - resistance

The USDJPY has reached the horizontal orange resistance at 112.20 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the 115.60 highs in March. The price remains in a short-term bullish trend as the price is above the Kumo (cloud).

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Blue line - long-term resistance trend line

With the USDJPY pair just below the blue trend line resistance and the Daily Kumo (cloud), a rejection at 112-112.50 will be a very bearish sign that would push the price towards 110 at least. So bulls should be very cautious as the upside potential is limited.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 2, 2017

The GBP/USD pair is pulling back from its 1.2964 highs. The up trend is not over and I consider this pullback only a short-term one that should find support at 1.2840-1.2750 area and reverse higher for another final upward thrust towards 1.31.

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Green rectangle - support area

Blue lines - bullish channel

The GBP/USD pair is facing short-term support at 1.2840 where the cloud support is found on the 4 hour chart. The price is expected to move a bit lower towards support area. Breaking below 1.27 will put the bullish trend in danger. Until then, I see this pullback as a corrective part of the bigger upward move towards 1.31.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The trend is bullish on the daily chart as price remains inside the blue upward sloping channel. There is no bearish divergence yet according to the RSI, so any pullback is considered as part of the upward trend. The bullish trend is expected to complete around 1.31.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for May 2, 2017

The US dollar index remains in a bearish trend below the important resistance, moving sideways for the last couple of sessions. The price may reach lower levels if support at 98.80 is broken, but overall I believe the US dollar has a scope for a bounce.

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Blue lines - trading range

On the 4 hour chart the price remains below the Kumo (cloud) and between the blue trend lines. Resistance is at 99.35 and support lies at 98.80. A break above the cloud at 99.60 will open the way for a bigger upward reversal. Breaking below 98.80 will open the way for a push lower towards 98-97.

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Red line - resistance

Black line - support

Green line - long-term trend line support

On a weekly basis we remain above critical long-term trend lines and support. However, there is still no reversal signal. I expect the dollar index to reverse towards at least the red trend line resistance. The form of the decline from 103.30 could be seen corrective and a break above the last high at 101.30 could confirm long-term trend reversal targeting 110-112. The price remains above the weekly cloud and this keeps bulls' hopes up.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for May 01, 2017

Forex analysis review
Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for May 01, 2017

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair fell to the bottom at 0.6847 yesterday. Today, the NZD/USD pair has faced strong support at the level of 0.6847. So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of 0.6847 (double bottom). Hence, the NZD/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.6847 forming a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 0.6847 and 0.6998. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 0.6998, while immediate resistance is found at 0.6922. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 0.6922 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.6922, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.6998. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.6998. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.6922 with the first target at the level of 0.6950; and continue towards 0.6998. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 0.6998; the market will decline further to the level of 0.6847 so as to try to approach it in order to test the double bottom again.
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Global macro overview for 02/05/2017

Global macro overview for 02/05/2017:

The US ISM Manufacturing data revealed a slight decline in this sector of the economy. Market participants expected a decline to 56.5 points, but the index fell to 54.8 points in April from 57.2 points previously and it was the weakest reading in four months. New orders slowed to 57.5 points from the previous reading of 64.5 points, though this was still a solid reading in historic terms. The production index increased to 58.6 points from 57.6 points. In conclusion, global investors expect the US manufacturing sector to slow, but there is still not enough evidence to fully support this assumption. Moreover, some experts think that the eurozone with its current pace of manufacturing activity might outperform the US during the next months.

Let's now take a look at the US dollar index technical picture on the H4 time frame. Since the interest rate increased in March, the index was slowly declining and recently it has made a new marginal low at the level of 98.68. Currently, the index is moving in a horizontal range between the levels of 98.68 - 99.36 and the bulls still cannot fill the lower gap. Market participants are waiting for more fundamental data (i.e.: FOMC statement, ADP unemployment or NFP Payrolls data) to trigger the next move.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for May 2, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish short-term trend, correcting the entire rise from $1,194. The price has reached the important Fibonacci support levels although the possibility of a move by $10-15 lower is still possible. Overall, my longer-term bullish view remains intact.

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Green rectangle - support area

Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price has just entered the important long-term support area. The price is trading below the 4 hour Kumo (cloud) confirming the bearish short-term trend. Moreover, the price is still inside the bearish blue channel. A break above $1,272 will open the way for a reversal. Support lies at $1,250-45 area now.

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Blue line - long-term support trend line

Gold price has broken below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators on the daily chart. The price is heading towards the trend line and cloud support at $1,240-45. The short-term trend is bearish. However, I expect gold price to reverse from current or lower levels for a move towards $1,320-40.

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Trading plan for 02/05/2017

Trading plan for 02/05/2017:

It was a quiet session overnight, as both Asia and London were on holiday and New York was unable to gather any momentum. The USD finds support after the US avoided the temporary government shutdown. Additionally, the positive sentiment and stock market records help to keep the appetite for risk.

On 2nd of May, the event calendar is busy only during the European session when April readings of PMI Manufacturing data from the eurozone are sceduled for release. This data is a revision of preliminary estimates, so it will likely attract minor interest. The UK PMI Manufacturing indicator is expected to confirm signals from other sectors of the economy that the recovery is stable.

EUR/USD analysis for 02/05/2017:

The PMI Manufacturing data is due to be published during the morning part of the trading session. Market participants expect the numbers to be at least in line with expectations. All of the PMI readings are still reported above the fifty level, so manufacturing in the eurozone is still in the expansion cycle. The most important data from the whole set is the data from Germany and France as any unexpected deterioration may signal that the eurozone has met some headwinds.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. There has been no rally attempt towards the swing high at the level of 1.0950 so far and the market is still consolidating the last week's gains. The weekend gap between the levels of 1.0730 - 1.0820 is still not filled. The dynamic support for the price is being provided by the golden trend line around the level of 1.0875. The next technical support is seen at 1.0854.

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Market snapshot: GBP/USD is again close to 1.2900 level

Market participants are waiting for PMI Manufacturing data to trigger the next move up or down. Any disappointment would start the corrective move towards the level of 1.2859, and in a case of a breakout lower, a move towards the range support at the level of 1.2772 is possible. The diminishing bullish momentum and the overbought market conditions support this view.

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Market snapshot: Gold below the important support

After the US House and Senate representatives have reached a $1.1 trillion deal to fund the government through the remainder of this fiscal year, gold prices fell towards the level of $1,259 and broke it. Currently, the market is trading around 23%Fibo at the level of $1,256 in oversold market conditions. The next support is seen at $1,246, $1,243 and $1,239.

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Global macro overview for 02/05/2017

Global macro overview for 02/05/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate at the level of 1.5%. This was the eighth meeting in a row when the rates were left unchanged. However, in the official statement the RBA sustained the upbeat outlook for the economy. Moreover, the RBA expected the inflation to accelerate as the economy strengthens, which is proved by the fact that the unemployment rate has dropped and the commodity prices are recovering. The RBA will possibly wait a little longer to tighten monetary policy until broad measures of growth and inflation gather speed.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The price has bounced from 50%Fibo at the level of 0.7439 and headed towards the next technical resistance at the level of 0.7557, but this breakout above the golden trend line looks false. The market conditions are still oversold, but the rally lacks momentum. Only a sustained violation of the technical resistance at the level of 0.7611 will change the outlook from bearish to bullish. Otherwise, the market will remain vulnerable.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

Wave [iii] completed slightly lower than expected at 1.5940 and wave [iv] declined to 1.5686. Wave [v] higher towards 1.6655 could now be developing. It's possible that wave [iv] needs a little more time and sideways movement to get completed, but once it happens, a strong rally higher towards 1.6655 should be expected.

R3: 1.6485

R2: 1.6115

R1: 1.6000

Pivot: 1.5800

S1: 1.5714

S2: 1.5685

S3: 1.5590

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.5705 was hit with a hefty profit of 355 pips. We will buy EUR again at 1.5686 or upon a break above 1.5900.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

There was no time for a deeper corrective decline in wave iv, and wave v higher to 123.21 is already unfolding. Once wave v and A are completed, we should see a new corrective decline towards at least 120.57 and possibly even closer to 119.01 to complete wave B and set the stage for the next impulsive rally in wave C towards 138.52.

R3: 123.21

R2: 122.89

R1: 122.63

Pivot: 122.00

S1: 121.60

S2: 121.30

S3: 120.65

Trading recommendation:

We missed the buying opportunity at 120.75 and will wait to sell EUR near 123.05 and place stop at 123.35.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 2, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to advance further. The pair is holding on the upside and is trading above the rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages which play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50.

Therefore, as long as 111.50 is not broken, look for a further rise to 112.30 and even to 112.55 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 112.15 and the second one at 112.45. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 111.00 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 110.65. The pivot point lies at 111.20.

Resistance levels: 112.30, 112.55, and 112.85

Support levels: 111.20, 111.00, and 110.60

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 2, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias above 0.9940. The pair posted a rebound from 0.9925 and broke above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period one. The relative strength index is mixed with bullish bias.

Speaking about economic reports from the US, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 54.8 in April (vs. 56.5 expected) from 57.2 in March. Personal consumption was unchanged in March after being also flat in February.

As long as 0.9940 holds on the downside, look for a new rise to 0.9970 and even to 0.9990 in extension.

Resistance levels: 0.9970, 0.9990, and 1.000

Support levels: 0.9925, 0.9910, and 0.9880

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 2, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to advance further. The pair is holding on the upside. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index has been supported by the ascending trend line since April 27.

Therefore, as long as 0.6890 holds on the downside, expect a new challenge to 0.6940 and even to 0.6955 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6940 and the second one at 0.6955. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6875 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6850. The pivot point is at 0.6890.

Resistance levels: 0.6940, 0.6955, and 0.6975

Support levels: 0.6875, 0.6850, and 0.6800

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 2, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to continue its upwards movement. The pair has recorded higher tops and higher bottoms since April 28, which confirmed a positive outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by the rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is supported by the ascending trend line.

Hence, as long as 143.80 holds on the downside, expect a further rise to 145 and even to 145.60 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 145.00 and the second one at 145.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 143.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 143.00. The pivot point is at 143.80.

Resistance levels: 145.00, 145.60, and 146.35

Support levels: 143.30,143.00, and 142.20

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 2, 2017

EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument is currently consolidating in the short-term, while the bias is bullish (though that is supposed to be a temporary thing). The outlook on the market (as well as other EUR pairs), is bearish for this week. This means the gap that opened last week might eventually be filled.

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USD/CHF: This pair did not do anything significant yesterday. This week and next, the market is supposed to move below the support levels at 0.9900 and 0.9800, reinforcing the current bearishness in the market. On the other hand, the market could go above the resistance levels at 1.0000 and 1.0100, creating a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart.

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GBP/USD: The Cable made a weak effort to go south on Monday; though the bullish bias remains intact. This week, the price is supposed to go further upwards, reaching the distribution territories at 1.2950, 1.3000 and 1.3050. The outlook on most other GBP pairs is also bullish.

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USD/JPY: Just like the EUR/JPY, the USD/JPY is also making some bullish effort. The supply levels at 112.50 and 113.00 may be tested, as price goes further upwards, following the gap-up that occurred last week, which has resulted in a bullish bias. At last, there would be a pullback in the market, which could threaten the current bullish bias.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY has been attempting to trend further upwards, following the gap-up that happened last week. There is a clear Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further rally is possible this week. However, the price would eventually come down, because the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this month.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 02, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Total Vehicle Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0960.

Strong Resistance:1.0954.

Original Resistance: 1.0943.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0932.

Target Inner Area: 1.0907

Inner Buy Area: 1.0882.

Original Support: 1.0871.

Strong Support: 1.0860.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0854.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 02, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Total Vehicle Sales. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.49.

Resistance. 2: 112.27.

Resistance. 1: 112.05.

Support. 1: 111.78.

Support. 2: 111.56.

Support. 3: 111.34.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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USD/CHF time to start buying with break of long term descending resistance

Price has finally made a bullish break of long-term descending resistance at 0.9955 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance). We now play a push up to 1.0000 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) has completed the bullish exit signal that has forecasted the bullish exit in price really well.

Buy above 0.9955. Stop loss at 0.9922. Take profit at 1.0000.

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EUR/USD remain bearish preparing to sell on the break of support

Price has repeatedly failed to break out support to trigger our sell entry. What is very interesting to observe is the formation of the RSI. We can see that it is being squeezed by a triangle formation and if it breaks the long term ascending support line, we can expect a similar drop in price. For now, we remain bearish preparing to sell on the break of 1.0859 support (Fibonacci retracement, Elliott wave theory). Upon the break of that level, we will have our stop loss at 1.0913 (Fibonacci retracement) and our profit target at 1.0731 (Fibonacci retracement, price gap, Elliott wave theory).

RSI (34) is seeing long term ascending support holding price up above our key support level. We require a break of this level to correspondingly see a bearish drop on price.

Sell below 1.0859. Stop loss at 1.0913. Take profit at 1.0731.

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NZD/USD approaching strong resistance, time to start selling

Price is testing major resistance at 0.6921 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a drop below this level to at least 0.6853 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 96% level where we expect a similar drop from.

Strong positive correlation of +0.97 with AUDUSD which is also expecting a bearish move increases our conviction of this trade.

Sell below 0.6921. Stop loss at 0.6956. Take profit at 0.6853.

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AUD/USD profit target reached perfectly, time to start selling

Price has bounced up perfectly and has reached our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below 0.7549 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) for a drop to at least 0.7490 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 97% level where we expect a drop from.

Strong positive correlation of +0.97 with NZD/USD which is also expecting a bearish move increases our conviction on this trade.

Sell below 0.7549. Stop loss at 0.7588. Take profit at 0.7490.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 02, 2017

The index is still finding demand over the support level of 98.83 and it remains confined within a narrow range below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. If that area gives up, then we can expect a decline to test the next target to the downside around 98.42. However, as the bearish gap hasn't been filled up yet, USDX can attempt a breakout above 99.28 to test the 100.00 psychological level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.28 / 99.97

H1 chart's support levels: 98.83 / 98.42

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 98.83, take profit is at 98.42 and stop loss is at 99.24.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 02, 2017

The pair holds the support zone of 1.2855, as the week starts with holidays in most of the countries. The resistance level of 1.2957 still provides a strong barrier for buyers and it's helping to cap further caps for the short-term. In the scenario that we witness a breakout below 1.2855, we might expect a decline to test the 1.2772 zone.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2957 / 1.3029

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2855 / 1.2652

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2957, take profit is at 1.3029 and stop loss is at 1.2887.

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