AUD/JPY approaching profit target perfectly, prepare to sell

Price has bounced off our buy entry perfectly yesterday and has risen strongly towards our profit target. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 82.94 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance) for a push down to 81.92 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 93% where we expect a drop from soon.

Sell below 82.94. Stop loss at 83.22. Take profit at 81.92.

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EUR/USD testing major resistance, remain bearish

Price continues to test our resistance as it shapes up nicely for a drop. We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.1264 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a further drop towards 1.1159 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 95% level.

Sell below 1.1264. Stop loss at 1.1301. Take profit at 1.1159.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 06, 2017

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USD/JPY remains under pressure below its key resistance at 110.35, and is likely to post new weaknesses. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning down, and call for further downsides. In addition, the relative strength index is mixed to bearish below its neutrality area at 50.

In which case, as long as 110.35 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 109.00 remains high.

The pair moved as predicted yesterday and all our targets were hit. At present, the pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 109.00. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 108.70. The pivot point stands at 110.35. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 110.80 and the second one at 111.00.

Graph Explanation: Black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. Red lines shows the support levels and green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL at highs, Stop Loss: 110.35, Take Profit: 109.00

Resistance levels: 110.80, 111.00, and 111.55

Support levels: 109.00, 108.70, and 111.55

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 06, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to continue its bounce. The pair bounced off 0.9615 (the low of June 2) and broke above the 50-period moving average. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

Regarding economic data, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing activity index fell to 56.9 in May (vs. 57.0 expected) from 57.5 in April. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that factory goods orders dropped 0.2% on month in April (as expected) after jumping 1.0% in March.

Therefore, above 0.9605, expect a technical rebound to 0.9660 and even to 0.9685 in extension.

Graph Explanation: Black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. Red lines shows the support levels and green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: Buy at dips, Stop Loss: 0.9605, Take Profit: 0.9660

Resistance levels: 0.9660, 0.9685, and 0.9710

Support levels: 0.9575, 0.9535, and 0.9500

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 06, 2017

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GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair is trading below the declining 50-period moving average, which plays a resistance role and maintains the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for a further drop.

Hence, as long as 142.10 is not surpassed, a new decline to 140.55 and even to 140.10 seems more likely to occur.

The pair moved as predicted yesterday and all our targets were hit. At present, the pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 140.55. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 140.10. The pivot point stands at 142.10. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 142.45 and the second one at 142.78.

Graph Explanation: Black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. Red lines shows the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : SELL at dips, Stop Loss: 142.10, Take Profit: 140.55

Resistance levels: 142.45, 142.78, and 143.35

Support levels: 140.55,140.10, and 139..50

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 06, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.7110. Although the pair retreated from 0.7150 (the high of June 5), it is still trading above the key support at 0.7110 (the low of June 5), which should limit the downside potential. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, as long as 0.7110 is not broken, look for a further rise to 0.7195 and even to 0.7220 in extension.

The pair moved as predicted yesterday and all our targets were hit. At present, the pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7195 and the second one at 0.7220. In the alternative scenario, short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7110 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is expected to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7080. The pivot point lies at 0.7125.

Strategy : BUY at dips, Stop Loss: 0.7125, Take Profit: 0.7195

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines shows the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7195, 0.7220, and 0.7280

Support levels: 0.7110,0.7080, and 0.7050

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for June 06, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD story continues into consolidation mode but possibility of a bearish breakout is unfolding now as seen on one-hour chart above. A short-term support trend line has been broken which should act as resistance towards 1.1270 levels. Till the time prices remain below 1.1285 levels, we should be looking to see lower levels at least towards 1.1150 as depicted here. On the flip side, a bullish breakout would only delay matters for a meaningful retracement lower. Please note that the corrective rally that began in January 2017 could be into its last leg and broader down trend should resume soon. There is a distant possibility for a push through 1.1500/1.1600 levels though before bears could return. Immediate short-term outlook remains lower in a corrective way with resistance at 1.1285 and interim support at 1.1200 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders would want to remain short now with stop above 1.1300 levels, targeting 1.1000.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair had made intraday highs at 1.2950 levels before reversing sharply lower. The pair is actually trading comfortably below 1.2880 levels since prices have moved quite swiftly after charts were prepared. Please note that the pair has just tested the bearish/resistance trend line before reversing today. Besides, the range has been within fibonacci 0.618 resistance, completing A-B-C pullback terminating into wave (2) as labelled above. If the above wave count holds true, then GBP/USD should now ideally remain below 1.2950 levels going forward and accelerate lower. A drop below 1.2850 levels would take immediate support out and confirm that bears are in good control. Major resistance is seen at 1.3047 levels, while support is at 1.2850 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Remain short for now, stop above 1.3050, targets are 1.2600 and 1.2300

Fundamental outlook:

No major fundamental news is set to be out for the day except for Australia's GDP figures later around 09:00 PM EST.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 06, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7121 and 0.7053. As a consequence, the first and second support levels are seen at 0.7121 and 0.7053 respectively. Currently, the price is in a strong bullish channel and the breakout happens at the top of 0.7121. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), major support is seen at 0.7053, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7121. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7121. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the level of 0.7121 with the first target at the level of 0.7200. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the major resistance level of 0.7200, we should see the pair climbing towards the third resistance (0.7248). It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7053.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 06, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9733. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9733 (this level of 0.9733 coincides with the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci) to the bottom around 0.9620. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6546 followed by 0.9733, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9560. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9733 and 0.9560; for that, we expect a range of 173 pips (0.9560 - 0.9733) in coming hours. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9733, the market will decline further to 0.9620 again. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9560 with a view to testing the daily support 1. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9733 (major resistance), then this scenario may become invalidated.
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GBP/USD analysis forJune 06, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2950. Anyway, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high and strong rejection from resistance. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2865.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2945

R2 : 1.2955

R3: 1.2970

Support levels:

S1: 1.2910

S2: 1.2900

S3: 1.2883

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for June 6, 2017

EUR/JPY is currently on the verge of breaking below the support of the corrective structure at 123.50. Today, Japan's Average Cash Earnings report showed an increase to 0.5% from 0.0% earlier, better than the forecast for a 0.3% gain. As a result, JPY has advanced against EUR today. As the Average Cash Earnings represent the disposable income which leads to rising consumer spending and the economic recovery, the news gave JPY a fresh impetus against EUR today. JPY strength is expected to continue further in the coming days. On EUR's side, today the eurozone released the headline IHS Markit Eurozone Retail PMI which was published with a worse figure at 52.0 from 52.7 previously, Sentix Investor Confidence showed an increase to 28.4 from 27.4 previously which was expected to be at 27.6, and Retail Sales report came in at worse figure of 0.1% from 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Overall, the Eurozone had mixed economic reports today that are inferior to the Japanese Average Cash Earnings. As a result, JPY is expected to gain further against EUR in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently on the verge of breaking below the important support level of 123.50. If we see a daily close below 123.50 today, then we will expect a further bearish move in this pair with a target towards 121.10 in the future. As the price has broken below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and is set to break below 123.50, the pair is currently in a bearish bias until price breaks above the 20 EMA with a daily close.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for June 6, 2017

GBP/USD has been trading in a corrective volatile structure recently due to negative economic reports from both the UK and the US. Yesterday, the UK posted Services PMI report which revealed a downbeat reading of 53.8 from 55.8 previously which was expected to be at 55.1. Today, BRC Retail Sales Monitor Report also came out with a negative figure at -0.4% which previously was at 5.6%. Yesterday, GBP managed to gain some strength with a daily close against USD yesterday as the US published worse economic report. However today, it seemed to lose some grounds against USD. Today, the US will publish JOLTS Job Opening report which is expected to decline to 5.65M from 5.74M previously. besides, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is expected to dip marginally to 51.6 from 51.3 earlier. As both the US economic reports are not high impact, the market is expected to consolidate further before establishing a proper trend in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently being rejected off the trendline resistance. As the price remains below the trendline in the intraday, the price is expected to move down towards 1.2800 support level. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the trend line with a H4 close, then we will consider buy positions with an upward target at 1.3050 resistance level. As the market is currently in a larger corrective structure, we have both way open to trade as no obvious trend is established in this pair yet.

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USD/JPY analysis for June 06, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 109.56. Anyway, I found that price had already filled an average daily range and even went above it, which is a sign that selling at this point looks risky. There is a hidden bullish divergence in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. The upward target is set at the price of 110.28.

Resistance levels:

R1: 109.85

R2 :109.95

R3: 110.00

Support levels:

S1: 109.60

S2: 109.50

S3: 109.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of USDJPY for June 6, 2017

After rejecting off the resistance of 111.60 recently, USD/JPY is currently in a bearish run towards 108.50 support level. After a corrective structure yesterday, JPY has gained fresh momentum today amid the positive report on Average Cash Earnings at 0.5% which was expected to be at 0.3% and which previously was at 0.0%. The economic event had a major impact on the currency as growth in the disposable income will trigger bigger consumer spending, thus the economic recovery. On the other hand, today the US will present JOLTS Job Opening report which is expected to show a worse figure of 5.65M which previously was at 5.74M. Besides, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is expected to edge up to 51.6 from the previous value of 51.3. As the US economic reports to be published today are not crucial for increasing the volatility in this pair, a further decline of the pair is expected in the coming days. JPY is currently stronger fundamentally than USD as yesterday USD was affected by a series of negative economic reports like ISM Manufacturing Index at 56.9 which was expected to be at 57.1. So, there are higher chances of JPY to gain ground against USD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has currently showed a good amount of bearish impulsive pressure after Japan's Average Cash Earnings report published today. Currently, there are no support level or barriers to stop the price from hitting the 108.50 support level in the coming days. Price is expected to reach 108.50 recently as the bearish bias continues below the resistance area of 111.60- 112.20.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for June 6, 2017

EUR/USD is currently residing in a corrective volatile structure after retesting and bouncing off 1.1200. Currently, the pair is trading sideways and it is more likely to consolidate today as high impact economic events are released on both sides. Today, The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Retail PMI was published at 52.0 which was worse than the previous value of 52.7, Sentix Investor Confidence showed an increase to 28.4 from the previous value of 27.4 which was expected to be at 27.6, but Retail Sales came in at a worse figure of 0.1% from 0.3% previously which was expected to be at 0.2%. Overall, the eurozone presented mixed economic reports today where negative results are dominating over the positive ones. On the other hand, the US released a series of downbeat reports yesterday like ISM Manufacturing Index at 56.9 which was expected to be at 57.1. Nevertheless, USD managed to gain some grounds against EUR. Today, JOLTS Job opening report is due which is expected to decrease to 5.65M which previously was at 5.74M. Besides, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report is expected to edge up to 51.6 from previous value of 51.3. To sum up, the US does not have any high impact news for injecting volatility in the market, but the eurozone has negative economic reports. If the US reports today show positive results, we might see further bearish pressure in this pair in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently hovering above 1.1140-1.1200 support area. As the price remains above this level, the pair be in a bullish bias with a target towards 1.1375 resistance level. Recently, as the pair has been rejected by bulls, we might see short-term bearish pressure in this pair towards the support area of 1.1140-1.1200 before proceeding further upwards.

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Global macro overview for 06/06/2017

Global macro overview for 06/06/2017:

Despite weaker-than-expected job growth in the US last month, the broad outlook still remains positive and healthy. Today's Job Openings & Turnover Survey data that are scheduled for release at 02:00 pm GMT might bring another evidence to support this assumption. Market participants expect, that a survey done by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies will deliver 5,650k jobs, which would be only 93k fewer than a 5,743k gain of last month. This estimate is still close to the best level since the August last year and it is a sign that the near-term trend is still on track to remain healthy. In conclusion, all of the three well-known job market surveys, ADP, NFP Payrolls, and JOLTs Job Openings, are still indicating a high level of performance of the US job market. It seems that the much more important measure in the job market is a steady pace of wage growth, which is resilient to rising inflationary pressures and is not accelerating fast enough. Because of this situation, the Federal Reserve might pause the interest rate hike after the March meeting and go back to the wait-and-see approach, which means the US Dollar will eventually drop even lower, towards the levels not seen since the beginning of Trump's administration.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price has just found the support at the level of 109.57 after an impulsive drop from the level of 110.22. In case a sell-off continues, the next technical support will be seen at the level of 108.47. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 110.22.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 6, 2017

Forex analysis review
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 6, 2017

Global macro overview for 06/06/2017

Global macro overview for 06/06/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5%. In the statement released after the decision, the RBA delivered a very neutral message. The key quotes from the statement were: "economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3 percent" and "quarter-to-quarter variation in the growth figures" and both of them were referring to the Australian GDP outlook. The RBA has acknowledged the weak commodity prices and the slower growth picture for the first quarter but reaffirmed the Bank's positive growth outlook, mainly on the back of the mining investment upturn, improving business conditions, tightening capacity utilization, and picking up business investment. Nevertheless, the comments on the labour market are less positive and confident. The job market indicators are still mixed and growth in wages is also not picking up fast enough. The housing market, the barometer of the RBA, has become expensive, but there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease, so no panic here.

In conclusion, a very neutral statement with no explicit policy bias was issued, giving no forward guidance. The RBA is still maintaining its path outlined in the previous statements and no big changes have been made so far.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market did pop modestly higher on the policy meeting outcome, unwinding the weakness seen earlier in the day on the disappointing net export contribution to Q1 GDP, but quickly got back to the trading range. The next support is seen at the level of 0.7455 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 0.7509.

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Trading plan for 06/06/2017

Trading plan for 06/06/2017:

The rate of AUD/USD increased slightly overnight after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a positive interest rate decision and statement. The USD/JPY pair fell below 110.00 amid the mixed mood on Asian Stock Exchanges. Crude Oil is trading 0.5% down and its price again has to struggle from falling under $47. Gold has settled up at $ 1,285 an ounce on the weak Dollar.

On Tuesday 6th of June, the economic calendar is very light in economic data. Nevertheless, global investors will pay attention to Sentix Investor Confidence and Retail Sales from the euro area, JOLTs Job Openings data from the US, and Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data from Canada.

EUR/USD analysis for 06/06/2017:

The Sentix Investor Confidence and Retail Sales data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and 09:00 am GMR respectively. Market participants expect investor confidence to remain virtually unchanged at the level of 27.6 points as investors cheer the rebound in economic activity this year. Moreover, the estimates of the GDP for the second quarter is also assumed to beat expectations. The PMI's data released yesterday and last week were all at least in line with expectations, so they added to mounting evidence that the eurozone is enjoying a strong second quarter, consistent with GDP rising at a 0.7% rate. Reatil sales, however, are expected to tick lower from 0.3% to 0.2% for the reported month, nevertheless, they expected figures still support the view that economic activity is picking up. If today's figures for sales and sentiment match or beat the expectations, the news will provide new evidence that the broad rebound for the euro area's economy is improving and might even accelerate at the end of the year. Overall positive sentiment might spill to the EUR/USD pair and other Euro-related currencies, giving them a boost up.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The price is still trading around the recent local swing highs, just below the level of 1.1298. The most important intraday level is the technical support just above the 50%Fibo at the level of 1.1201. Any breakout lower might trigger a deeper decline towards the level of 1.1176 and then 1.1108. This scenario will be probable if the news is worse than expected.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil still under the trend line

The price of Crude Oil tried to break out above the technical resistance zone between the levels of $48.24 - 47.80, but it failed and came back below the navy trend line. The bears are eyeing the technical support at the level of $46.73. If they managed to break out below it, then the next target would be at the level of $45.55. This scenario is supported by the fact that the momentum indicator can not break out above its fifty level despite the oversold market conditions.

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Market Snapshot: Gold bullish breakout

The price of Gold has managed to break out above the 78%Fibo retracement and now is trading around the recent highs at the level of $1,295. Just above this level, there is a strong resistance zone that would be a current target for bulls. The next support will now be the zone between the levels of $1,258 - 1,274, that used to be resistance. Please notice the bearish divergence is starting to form between the price and the momentum indicator.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 6, 2017

Remaining in a bearish trend and providing lower lows and lower highs, I continue to feel that the risk reward favors bulls rather than bears. As said in my previous posts, I prefer to be at least neutral if not bullish around 96-97 area.

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Blue line - resistance

The Dollar index broke out and below the trading range and has now 97 as resistance (once support). Trend remains bearish. Only a move above 97.30 will change short-term trend to bullish. I can see bullish divergence signals by the RSI and I continue to focus on a reversal signal.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The weekly chart is ugly. Price has broken below the weekly Kumo (cloud) support and is inside a bearish channel. Channel support is at 96 and this is my next target and reversal area. I would then expect a reversal and back test towards cloud resistance at 97.85-98 at least.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 6, 2017

Gold price is reaching our targets we mentioned since early May. There are several indicators showing that this rally will be short-lived and bulls need to raise their stops and protect their positions. A pullback at least towards $1,250 is expected.

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Gold price remains in a bullish trend as price continues to trade above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Support is at $1,273. If broken the correction starts, next support will be at $1,260. Resistance is at $1,290-$1,300.

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Black line - long-term trend line resistance

Blue line - long-term trend line support

Gold price is breaking out of the weekly Kumo and is testing the black trend line resistance. I do not expect Gold price to break now above the black trend line or at least make a real breakout. If it breaks out, I would not be buying on strength but wait for a pullback at least towards $1,250. I remain longer-term bullish on Gold.

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