EUR/NZD : analysis for November 26, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5999 in an average volume. According to the 4H time frame, we can oberve an absorption volume like we expected. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5945 is on the test. If the price breaks the level of 1.5945 in a high volume and strong price action, we may see potential testing the level of 1.6135. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD since we got absorption volume in the background. Watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6003


R2: 1.6050


R3: 1.6126


Support levels:


S1: 1.5851


S2: 1.5804


S3: 1.5728


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD since we got a strong absorption volume in the background.


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Gold : analysis for November 26, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sidewas around the price of 1,200.00. We are facing another low volume day, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,194.00 (successfully tested), Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,188.00 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1,177.00. If the price breaks the level of 1,194.00 in a high volume and strong price action, we may see potential testing the level of 1,188.00. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe fail absorption volume, which is a sign that buyers don't have power for a larger bullish movement. Be careful when buying at this stage but watch for buying opportunities after a bearish corrective phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,202.97


R2: 1,205.89


R3: 1,210.63


Support levels:


S1: 1,193.49


S2: 1,190.57


S3: 1,185.83


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 26, 2014

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Overview :



  • The AUD/USD pair had fallen from the strong level of 0.8575 and extended further to as low as 0.8536 yesterday. So, the first resistance had placed at th level of 0.8575 since yesterday. Also, it should be noted that the minor resistance will form at 0.8536. Then, according to previous events, the price is going to move between 0.8536 and 0.8460 in the short term. The price of 0.8460 will form a new double bottom in H1 chart. Furthermore, the price has set below 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels, for that we expect a saturation around the level of 0.8575 or/and 0.8536. Consequently, it is probably that the market will start showing the signs of bearish market again in order to indicate a bearish opportunity from the level of 0.8536. Accordingly, sell below the level of 0.8536 with the first target at 0.8500, besides it will call for a downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 0.8460 in order to create a new bottom. On the other hand, if bears will have forced to pullback above the level of 0.8575 and buyers will be able to break this level, therefore the best solution is to set a stop loss at the price of 0.8593.



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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 26, 2014

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Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair is trading between the levels of 1.2360 and 1.2480 (those levels coincide with the Fibonacci retracement levels 00% and 50% respectively). It should be noted that the 1.2508 price will act as a strong resistance because it represents the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart. Moreover, the weekly pivot point has always set below the resistance and it will act as a minor resistance around the area of 1.2451. Therefore, it will be rather gainful to sell below the levels of 1.2508 or 1.2451 and look for further downside with 1.2357 and 1.2360 targets. It should also be reminded that the double bottom will set at the point of 1.2360; but the weekly support 1 has already been found at 1.2310. On the other hand, stop loss should always be taken in account, consequently, it will be of beneficial to set the stop loss above the resistance 1 at the price of 1.2540; because the stop loss must never exceed the maximum exposure amounts.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 26 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6004


R2: 1.5993


R1: 1.5972


Current spot: 1.5944


S1: 1.5917


S2: 1.5878


S3: 1.5849


Technical summary:


The correction we where looking for towards 1.5805 is currently unfolding. Short term, we expect minor resistance at 1.5972 will protect the upside for a break below minor support at 1.5917 and more importantly below support at 1.5878 confirming the decline to 1.5805, before this correction is over.


Trading recommendation:


We are looking for a EUR-buy possibility near 1.5805.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 26 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 147.43


R2: 147.27


R1: 147.04


Current spot: 146.65


S1: 146.55


S2: 146.27


S3: 146.03


Technical summary:


The correction towards 142.06 is still unfolding. We are currently looking for a break below minor support at 146.55 to confirm the strong decline towards 143.82 on the way lower towards 142.06 to end the correction from 149.13. At this point only an unexpected break above 147.39 will delay the expected decline towards 142.06.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR from 146.90 with stop place at 147.50. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 146.85 with the same stop at 147.50.


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Gold Technical analysis for November 26, 2014

Gold price is trading very nervously still inside a trading range of $1,208 and $1,189. Ichimoku indicators remain bullish but with the tendency to change to neutral. Price is below the important resistance and pivot point of the 61.8% retracement of the decline from $1,255. Bulls should keep their stops tight as the down trend could resume any time.


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Red line = support


Black lines = triangle


Gold price is trading inside a triangle pattern. Resistance is found at $1,204-$1,207 and support at $1,189-$1,193. Breaking either level will push price towards $1,225 or $1,170. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the red trend line support. Breaking below the triangle will increase the chances of breaking below the support levels and push towards $1,145.


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Red line = resistance


Black line = support


The short-term chart above shows the choppy action in Gold the last few days. There is no clear impulsive action from $1,130 and I believe that this upward move is only a correction against the bigger down trend. Prices usually reverse around the 61.8% retracement levels and this is what I expect to happen in Gold as long as price remains below $1,208.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 26, 2014

General overview for 26/11/2014 08:40 CET


The corrective cycle in wave -iv- blue looks to be completed as the price has broken below the yesterday's low. The leading diagonal scenarios, marked on the chart with thick blue lines, is still possible and all the requirement has been met so far except the last fifth wave to the downside. To complete this structure, the price should break below the level of 1.1230 and then finally below the level of 1.1190 before any meaningful correction will happen. Moreover, in that case the alternative count will be invalidated.


Support/Resistance:


1.1437 - WR2


1.1368 - Key Level


1.1326 - WR1


1.1276 - Intraday Resistance


1.1258 - Weekly Pivot


1.1224 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


Yesterday's buy trade has been closed as the price has hit our trailing stop loss order with profit. Currently, another trade setup might be considered by day traders: classical breakout trade using sell stop order from the level of 1.1230 with SL above the level of 1.1276 and TP at the level of 1.1190.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 26, 2014

General overview for 26/11/2014 08:20 CET


The corrective cycle inside the wave (ii) or b green is still in progress and two key levels have been marked on the chart. The upper key level is the most important for bears as any violation of it would lead to more intraday gains with the projected targets at the levels of 147.98 and 149.14. On the other hand, the breakout below the lower key level would be the most important for bulls, because it might lead to corrective cycle extension down to the levels of 145.58 before any meaningful bounce/resumption will happen.


Support/Resistance:


149.14 - Swing High


148.50 - Intraday Resistance


147.98 - WR1


147.38 - Intraday Resistance


146.30 - Intraday Support


146.38 - Weekly Pivot


145.67 - Technical Support


145.84 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


The SL for the opened buy trade recommended at the beginning of the week should be placed below the intraday support at the level of 146.30 and TP level in longer term should aim for the level of 147.98 and 149.14.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 26, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair is trading at 146.50/60 levels for now, after breaking below the immediate trend line support and having met with resistance at 147.40 levels yesterday. Please note that 145.50 level remains critical to determine short-term direction for the pair. It is expected to print higher highs towards 151.00 and 154.00 till 145.50 remains intact, while a break there could confirm a deeper correction towards 141.00/142.00 levels (outer trend line support) before the rally resumes. It is recommended to hold long positions for now, risk at 145.50 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 145.50, the targets are at 151.00 and 154.00 respectively.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 26, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair is pulling back and looking to form base again at 1.5130/40 levels. The pair is expected to push higher towards 1.5250/70 levels before a meaningful pullback can take place. It is recommended to remain long for now and also look to add fresh long positions, risk is at 1.5000 levels. Support is seen at 1.5025, followed by 1.4950 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5300, followed by 1.5450, and 1.5550 respectively. Bulls are possibly looking to push higher into 1.5300 at least. Please note that 1.53 is past support turned resistance and a reaction could be expected there.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 1.5000 or break even, the target is between 1.5270/1.53.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for November 26, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver seems to be pushing higher towards fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop from $17.80 to sub $15.00 levels as seen here. Please also note that the sloping trend line resistance is also seen at the same levels. A bearish reaction there could see the metal reversing lower and targeting below $15.00 levels. On the flip side, a push through, could see $17.00 and $17.30 levels at least. It is recommended to remain long on remaining positions, move risk to break even levels. Support is seen at $16.00/20, followed by $15.20/30 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $17.80/18.00 levels and higher up respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, move stop to break even levels, the target is at $17.30.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for November 26, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has met the minimum criteria and rallied into $1.207.00 levels before pulling back. The metal needs to break below $1,175.00 mark to confirm that a meaningful lower top has been made at $1,207.00 levels. Bulls, seem to be determined to hold prices above $1,190.00 levels for now and push it even higher. A break above $1,208.00 levels, could see the metal rising up to $1,235.00 and $1,255.00 levels as well. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions for now, risk remains at $1,1750.00. Support is seen at $1,175.00, followed by $1,145.00, $1,130.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,235.00, followed by $1,255.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Hold long positions, stop at $1,175.00, the target is up to $1,255.00


Good luck!


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Technical Analysis on Gold for November 26, 2014

The metal has been facing strong resistance exists at 50Dsma. In the previous session, the metal fell to 1190.00, but managed to close with marginal gains. Today, the metal opened on a bearish note, opened higher at $1,201.50. Today, the focus shifts to US durable goods orders, personal spending, and the PCE price index. The metal has strong resistance between $1,205.00 and $1,207.00. Until the metal closes below above these levels, bears have an upper hand. This week, we can expect high volatility in the metal prices. The Swiss gold referendum will take place on November 30, 2014. The nearest weekly resistance exists at $1,213.50, above this $1,240 and $1,243.00 are the major resistance levels. Bulls will regain strength, in case if the metal prices close above $1,207.00. From an Intraday view, the prices are taking support at $1,198.00, below this $1,195.90, $1,193.00, and $1,190.00 are the support levels. In the hourly chart, the metal is making higher highs and higher lows. We recommend intraday selling below $1,198.00 with the targets at $1,195.00, $1,193.00, and $1,190.00. In case if the prices correct below $1,190.00, it can extend its fall up to $1,188.00, $1,186.00, and $1,180.00. The panic will be triggered below $1,174.00.


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Technical Analysis on GBP/USD for November 26, 2014

The cable is continuing its consolidation phase between 1.5590 and 1.5737. As of now, the pair made a triple top at the 1.5537 levels. The trading range is framed between 1.5590 and 1.5737. As of now, today the pair is unable to breach previous day's high. The mixed US data pushed the US dollar down against most of the pairs. The US consumer confidence report was weak, but the GDP expanded more than forecast in the 3rd quarter. The US dollar didn't respond to the positive GDP data. Maybe this a bit concern in the near term for bulls. As of now, in the weekly chart the cable has formed a double bottom at 1.5590. In case if the cable holds at the 1.5590, the double bottom can turn into a triple bottom on the weekly chart. In case if this happens, we can expect some technical bounce towards 1.5810 and 1.5880. Today, the focus shifts to US durable goods orders, personal sending, and the PCE price index. In the UK, second estimate GDP data will provide a clear picture. We recommend fresh buying above 1.5740 levels with the targets at 1.5770, 1.5800, 1.5850, and 1.5880. We recommend selling below 1.5670 with the targets at 1.5640 and 1.5630. In case if the cable falls below 1.5630, the last bulls' hope exists at 1.5590. Below this panic will be triggered for 100 or 150 pips down side. In the hourly chart, we can observe continuation of the symmetrical triangle. The height of the triangle is 147 pips.


Trade: Buying above 1.5740


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on GBP/JPY for November 26, 2014

The pound continues its winning streak for 6 weeks in a row. This week the cross is unable to breach the previous week high at 186.15. We recommend fresh buying only above the 186.20 levels. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The pair has support at 184.89. In case if the prices close above 186.15 on a daily basis, the pair challenges 186.90, 187.45, and 188.30. On the down side, in case if the price falls below 184.89, the pair can correct up to 184.70, 184.50, and 184.00. The panic will be triggered below the 183.90 levels. In the hourly chart, the prices are forming continuous symmetric triangle. We recommend risky trade buying above 185.60 with immediate targets at 186.00 and 186.10. For bears, we recommend selling below 184.50 with the targets at 184.30, 184.00, and 183.60. Risky traders can sell below the 184.70 levels. Today, the focus has shifted to second estimate of UK's GDP.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 26, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Import Prices m/m and German 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release a number of important economic reports such as the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, and Natural Gas Storage. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2542.

Strong Resistance:1.2534.

Original Resistance: 1.2522.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2510.

Target Inner Area: 1.2480.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2450.

Original Support: 1.2438.

Strong Support: 1.2426.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2418.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on EUR/USD for November 26, 2014

The mixed US data pushed the US dollar down against most of the pairs. The US consumer confidence report was weak, but the GDP expands more than the forecast in the 3rd quarter. The euro stood high against the US dollar, gaining 30 pips. In yesterday's session, the pair faced resistance at 20Dsma or 1.2490 levels. In case if the pair breaches 1.2490, it has another multiple resistance at 1.2510. We recommend fresh intraday buying only above 1.2510 with the targets at 1.2575 and 1.2610. The hourly stochastic is indicating buying signal. Risky traders can buy at the 1.2490 levels. On the down side, the pair has support at 1.2440, 1.2400, and 1.2358. In the hourly chart, the prices are making a double bottom at the 1.2358 levels. The panic will be triggered below 1.2320 with the targets at 1.2250 and 1.2226. In case if the prices close below 1.2226, the pair can extend its fall up to 1.2100. In case, the prices close above 1.2600, further 200 pips upswing will ignite (1.2770 or 1.2880). For the near term, 1.2600 is the key level on the bullish front and 1.2350 and 12320 are the key support levels on the support side. The focus shifts to tomorrow's German prelim CPI, Spanish Flash CPI, German unemployment data, and the OPEC meeting. Huge volatility existed in the system ahead of the major key economic events.


Trade:


Buying above 1.2510.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 26, 2014

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Today, Japan will not release any economic data. But the US will publish many important economic reports such as Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, and Natural Gas Storage. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 118.40.

Resistance. 2: 118.17.

Resistance. 1: 117.94.

Support. 1: 117.66.

Support. 2: 117.43.

Support. 3: 117.20.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for November 26, 2014

The USDX has made a pullback close to the resistance level of 88.63 on the daily chart again. It is therefore possible that this instrument falls to the support level of 87.35 in this week. The USDX could have a respite to fall to that level and try again routed to the level of 88.63 and consolidate above that area, because the USDX is forming a bullish pattern. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 88.63 / 90.40


Dailychart's support levels: 87.35 / 86.20


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In the H1 chart, the USDX fell abruptly to the location of the 200 SMA at the support level of 87.86. The USDX could conduct a rebound over this area and reach the resistance level of 88.15 again because this instrument still remains strong in the current bullish bias.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 88.15 / 88.43


H1 chart's support levels: 87.86 / 87.58


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 88.15, take profit is at 88.43, and stop loss is at 87.87.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 26, 2014

The GBP/USD pair is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5700, to extend the corrective movements to the level of 1.5811 on H4 chart. However, the GBP/USD pair is preparing the ground to fall to the next target in the bearish road at the level of 1.5512. The GBP/USD pair remains below the 200 SMA and MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.


H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.5700 / 1.5811


H4chart's support levels: 1.5698 / 1.5512


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In the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair is forming a higher high pattern above the 200-day moving average, as this pair is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5739, to climb to the level of 1.5810. On the other hand, we can see that this pair could find dynamic resistance at the 200-day moving average and fall to the level of 1.5632.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5739 / 1.5810


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5686 / 1.5632


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5686, take profit is at 1.5632, and stop loss is at 1.5740.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 26, 2014

EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument is making some commendable effort to go bullish, though some odds are still against it. An upward movement of over 110 so far this week is formidable enough, and when price goes above the resistance line at 1.2600, then things would have gone bullish. However, this goal is not currently easy to achieve.


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USD/CHF: This is a bullish market, which can be rendered invalid only when price goes below the support line at 0.9550. Until then, the bullish outlook is logical, for the EMA 11 is still above the EMA 56 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is not too far from the overbought region.


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GBP/USD: This is a bearish market – with a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The only thing that can render the Bearish Confirmation Pattern invalid is the condition in which price goes above the distribution territory at 1.5800.


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USD/JPY: USD/JPY is still in a bullish mode. Following the shallow bearish attempt that happened yesterday, price has stabilized, forming a short-term base. The bullish trend is supposed to continue from here, as it takes price towards the supply level at 119.00. That is the ultimate target for this week.


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EUR/JPY: This market dropped by around 60 pips yesterday, allowing astute bulls to enter the market when things were temporarily on sale and in the context of an uptrend. It is expected that price would go upwards towards the supply zone at 149.00. That supply zone was tested last week, and with enough strength in the market, it could be tested again this week or next week.


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