Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for April 25, 2018

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair succeeded to achieve the initial positive target at 152.45 yesterday, confirming its affection by the main bullish bias domination. Stochastic rally above the 50 level opens the way towards gathering new positive momentum, to confirm the continuation of the positivity, to keep waiting for surpassing the 153.65 level and achieving the second main target at 154.10. Reminding you that the main suggestion is valid by the stability of the price within the main bullish channel, also the stability of the moving average 55 below the current trading shrinks any possibility to form negative correctional trading, attempting to provide extra positive momentum until reaching the suggested targets. The expected trading range for today is between 151.65 and 154.10.

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 25, 2018

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Overview

Gold price resumes its negative trading clearly in its way towards our main waited target at 1316.48, pointing that stochastic keeps providing negative signals that might motivate the price to break the mentioned level, then extend the bearish wave to reach 1301.20 as a next station. Therefore, we keep preferring the bearish trend for today unless breaching 1335.40 level and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between the 1316.00 support and the 1335.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 25, 2018

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Overview

Silver price keeps its stability above the 16.56 level, noticing that stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum clearly to reach the oversold areas, which forms a positive factor that we are waiting to assist to push the price higher in the upcoming sessions, waiting to visit the 17.43 level. Therefore, we are waiting for positive trading today, conditioned by the price stability above 16.56, reminding you that breaching 17.43 will push the price towards 18.30 as a next main station. The expected trading range for today is between the 16.50 support and the 17.00 resistance.

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Global macro overview for 25/04/2018

Turkish central bank about to hike the benchmark interest rate?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) raised the LLW (Late Liquidity Window ) interest rate from 12.75% to 13.50%, keeping the remaining interest rates unchanged. This long-awaited increase in credit costs was initially well received by the market, but it did not resolve all doubts about the credibility of the TCMB's monetary policy. The previous increase in the LLW rate took place in December 2017 and amounted to 50 bp. Then the scale of the increase clearly disappointed investors. Overnight rates are still 7.25% (deposit) and 9.25% for loans. The Benchmark rate of weekly repo loans is still only 8% and has remained unchanged since mid-2016.

Originally, LLW was conceived as a last-chance instrument for banks that failed to obtain liquidity through overnight loans. It was more expensive, so its popularity was low. The situation changed at the beginning of 2017 when the taps with basic instruments were turned off and commercial banks were somehow forced to use the LLW.

Therefore, the LLW rate of 13.50% is now the main determinant of the money price on the Turkish interbank market. This is a way to raise interest rates "backdoor", so as not to irritate the Erdogan - a fierce enemy of expensive credit.

Turkey is on the verge of a sharp currency crisis. 10% CPI inflation is raging in the country, and the current account deficit has exceeded the alarming level of 6% of GDP. Foreign investors are evacuating capital from the Bosphorus, which is manifested by the record low rates of the Turkish currency. In addition, already on June 24, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote early parliamentary elections, so the LLW rate hike might be seen as a move to stabilize the lira course against the upcoming elections. The depreciation of the currency gives way to Turks by increasing the cost of servicing foreign currency loans and increasing prices of imported goods (especially crude oil). It is also a move that aims to calm the mood among foreign investors who in recent weeks have expressed doubts whether TCMB is able to make the right decisions in the face of pressure from Erdogan.

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture in the H1 time frame. The market has made a swing high at the level of 4.1930 on 10th of April and since then the market has been in a corrective cycle with resulted in a local low at the level of 4.000. Today's decision has increased the volatility in USD/TRy as the market first dive towards the trend line dynamic support around the level of 4.0301 and then bounced quickly towards the technical resistance at the level of 4.1124. A violation of this resistance will likely result in a move higher towards the level of 4.1267 and 4.1602.

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Global macro overview for 25/04/2018

On the Wednesday's macro calendar, it is in vain to look for any important data releases, so the financial markets will focus on the rise in the US bond yields and the consequences for risky assets and the US Dollar, where investors simply have too many short positions. The bonds are still trading close to the level of 3.0%, although only a breakout through 3.05% can cause more havoc. Especially for emerging markets, this will be a very bad news, as higher yields on debt in the US mean a decrease in the relative attractiveness of investments in emerging markets, where the risk premium is higher.

The market sentiment was further undermined by Wall Street's thump in reaction to disturbing information from leading companies. Manufacturer of construction equipment Caterpillar warned that good results for the first quarter may be the pinnacle of its capabilities, and the 3M manufacturing company before the disappointment with results defended only thanks to tax cuts. In recent weeks, the key argument of market optimists in the discussion against panic under the influence of protectionism and geopolitical tensions was the strength of the global recovery that is still promising. That is why news from US companies is at their worst, as they add to fears that risky assets can no longer defend themselves with the lucrative prospects of global growth.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken through the swing high at the level of 90.93 and currently is trading at the highs again despite the overbought market conditions. The next important technical resistance must bee seek at the daily time frame and can be located at the level of 91.76. The immediate support is seen at the level of 91.09, but in the case of an extension to the downside, the next support is seen at the level of 90.93 and 90.75.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 25, 2018

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Our first upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. GBP/JPY is still on the upside and looking to post some further upside gains. The pair is posting some consolidations after the recent strong rebound but is still bullish above its horizontal support at 151.65. The relative strength index is mixed to bullish and calls for caution. In which case, as long as 151.65 holds on the downside, look for a limited consolidation before further advance to 152.65 and 153 in extension.

Fundamentally:

The British pound marked a day-low of US$1.3916, its lowest intraday level since March 19, before rebounding to close at US$1.3975, up 0.3% on the day and snapping a five-session losing streak. The currency was boosted by a revised 44 billion-pound bid by Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical for London-listed drugmaker Shire.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.65, 153.00, and 153.70

Support levels: 151.30, 150.85, and 150.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 25, 2018

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Our first downside target which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. NZD.USD still under pressure and remains in a down trend, and is likely to post a new decline. The falling 50-period moving average acts as a resistance role. In addition, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. To conclude, as long as 0.7130 is not surpassed, likely advance to 0.7060 and 0.7020 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7155, 0.7180, and 0.7205

Support levels: 0.7060, 0.7020, and 0.700.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 25, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time frame, I found a well defined upward channel and the price did successful rejection of the upper diagonal of the channel which is a sign that sellers became active. I also found that price is trying to break the lower diagonal of the channel. If you see a valid breakout of the upward channel, watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $8.724 and at the price of $7.742.

Support/Resistance

$9.700 – Intraday resistance

$8.724– Intraday support

$8.724 – Objective target 1

$7.742 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for April 25, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,321.70. According to the H4 time – frame, I found a strong supply in the background and increase on ADX on the previous downswing, which is a sign that sellers are in control. The previous rally was on decreasing ADX, which is a sign that buyers are weak. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find a potential downward target. I got Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $1,307.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,334.70

R2: $1,338.90

R3: $1,345.28

Support levels:

S1: $1,324.10

S2: $1,317.80

S3: $1,313.51

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for April 25, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2186. According to the M30 time frame, I found strong intraday selling pressure (ADX reading above 30), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found that ADX peaked on the rally, which is another sign that potential downward pressure may resume. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2186 and at the price of 1.2155.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2256

R2: 1.2283

R3: 1.2320

Support levels:

S1: 1.2195

S2: 1.2157

S3: 1.2132

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 25, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (0.7110). It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.7110 to the bottom around 0.7072. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7148 followed by 0.7195, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7072. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.7110. So it will be good to sell at 0.7110 with the first target of 0.7072. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.7026. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to trade between 0.7110 and 0.7026 in coming hours. The price area of 0.7148 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.7148 is not broken. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 0.7148, then a stop loss should be placed at 0.7195.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 25, 2018

Bitcoin has been impulsively bullish consistently for certain period which helped the price to bounce off from $6,500 to $9,500 by today. Currently, the price is showing impulsive bullish rejection whereas certain bearish pressure is expected as a form of retracement along the way. The price is currently residing at the edge of $9300 from where certain bearish pressure towards $8,500-$9,000 area where the Kumo Cloud support area also lies is expected to be retested before the price proceeds higher in the coming days. As there has not been any major fundamental impact in the market, the sustainability of the bulls is still quite strong. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to retrace for a certain period before its continues its bullish trend with the target towards $10,000 and later towards $11,500 in the future. As the price remains above $8,500 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 25, 2018

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The USD/CHF pair broke the resistance that turned into strong support at the level of 0.9772 yesterday. The level of 0.9772 coincides with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a major support on the H1 chart today. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.9772. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling an upward trend, and the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the area of 0.9772. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 0.9772 - 0.9750. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci (0.9772) with the first target at the level of 0.9857 in order to test a double top in the same time frame. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.9857, the market will probably continue towards the next objective at 0.9898. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9730. Thus, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9730, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/GBP for April 25, 2018

EUR/GBP has recently bounced off the 0.86 price area breaching above 0.87 with a daily close. Currently, the price is residing inside the support area of 0.87-0.8750 from where it is currently expected to push higher towards 0.8950 resistance area in the coming days. The recent break below 0.87 has proved to be a false break downward which indicates the strength of the bulls in the market. Today there are no economic reports or events on the EUR side to impact the market momentum, but tomorrow the Minimum Bid Rate report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.00%. At the same time, the ECB Press Conference is also expected to be neutral in nature. On the GBP side, the economic reports have been quite positive in nature which helped the currency gain certain momentum but it was not enough to have an impulsive counter in the strong bullish momentum. Today there are no economic reports or events on the GBP side to impact the market momentum but tomorrow, ahead of the ECB Minimum Bid Rate report, the British High Street Lending report will be delievered which is expected to decrease to 37.1k from the previous figure of 38.1k. Besides, the CBI Realized Sales is expected to decrease in deficit to -3 from the previous figure of -8. As of the current scenario, GBP economic reports expectations are quite dovish in nature whereas high impact economic reports and events on EUR are expected to have a better overview for the upcoming EUR gains in the pair. To sum up, EUR is expected to gain further momentum in the pair against GBP in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of breaking above 0.8750 area which is more likely as of the recent false break below 0.87 with an impulsive pressure could not sustain the bearish momentum. As of the Bullish Continuation Divergence in place, the bullish momentum is expected to continue further for a certain period. The price is being supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA currently and a daily close above 0.8750 will lead to strong impulsive momentum towards 0.8950 in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.87 with a daily close, further bullish momentum is expected in this pair.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/JPY for April 25, 2018

EUR/JPY has recently breached above the 133.00 price area with a daily close which is expected to push the price much higher towards 134.50-135.00 resistance area. Ahead of the ECB Press Conference and the Minimum Bid Rate report to be published, certain impulsive gain over JPY during the Italian Holiday is quite remarkable and indicates the strength the euro possess right now in the market. Today there is no economic reports or events on the EUR side to impact the market momentum, but tomorrow the Minimum Bid Rate report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.00%. At the same time, the ECB Press Conference is also expected to be neutral in nature. On the other hand, ahead of the BOJ Policy Report to be published on Friday which is expected to be unchanged at -0.10%, JPY has been being dominated by the EUR since the price broke above 132.00 area with a daily close. Today Japan's All Industry Activity report showed an increase to 0.4% from the previous negative value of -1.1% but it failed to meet the expectation of 0.6% which ultimately lead JPY to lose more grounds against EUR resulting to more gains on the bullish side in the pair. As of the current scenario, EUR is expected to sustain its bullish momentum in the coming days whereas JPY may struggle to counter this impulsive pressure. Ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports and events on the both currencies in the pair this week, the price is expected to be highly volatile before this weekend. To sum up, EUR is expected to have an upper hand over JPY in the nearest future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 133.00 area with an impulsive bullish momentum which is expected to drive the price much higher towards 134.50-135.00 area in the coming days. The price has been quite volatile and corrective before it broke above 133.00 area with a daily close, and as the bullish pressure is sustained in the market, further upward momentum is expected along with certain retracement in the process. As the price remains above 132.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Bitcoin analysis for 25/04/2018

The likely next president of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York said that the cryptocurrency "does not pass the basic test of what the currency should be". John Williams, who is the current head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said the currency should be "something like a value-added asset". He added that currencies must be flexible to support various economic and financial conditions. Williams also expressed concern about the problems of illegal activity in the cryptographic community.

According to Williams, "the configuration or institutional layout around Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, above all, have problems with fraud, money laundering problems, terror financing and many other problems.The idea of supplying the currency and thinking about money belongs to the sphere of government and central banks. In my opinion, this is more a promise of technology."

Williams, who spent the majority of his career in central banking, admitted freely that he was "very prejudiced" to cryptocurrencies. He is most likely to replace William Dudley on the post of the head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank in June.

Among 12 regional federal banks in the US Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank in New York and its president are considered the most important. It is the largest by asset and the most active in terms of volume.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to rally the market towards the 61% Fibo at the level of $9,607 and the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern emerged on the H4 time frame chart at this level. It might indicate a temporary pullback towards one of the technical support levels seen at $9,126 and $8,986. Moreover, the upward move looks like a typical wave three development with a visible bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator, so the chance for a slide down and now high.

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Trading plan for 25/04/2018

The US dollar moved slightly upward overnight, stopping Tuesday's correction. Yields of US 10-year bonds return under 3.0%. Despite the day off in Australia and New Zealand, AUD and NZD suffered the biggest losses. Against GBP and CAD they lost the least. The stock market in Asia has fallen in red in the wake of US declines (S&P 500 -1.34%), where a series of quarterly results releases and revisions of earnings and sales forecasts have raised doubts about the passing of the global recovery summit. Today, the Chinese Shanghai Composite lost 0.4% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%.

On Wednesday 25th of April, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on the Crude Oil Inventories data from the US and the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speech later during the trading day.

S&P 500 analysis for 25/04/2018:

The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence from the US increased to 128.7 in April from 127.0 in March. This months reading is the second highest of the cycle after February's release at 130.0. The April's increase surprised market participants as consensus forecast showed another decline on continued uncertainty surrounding the trade policy. Consumers appear to have already shaken that concern, which weighed against confidence in March. April was a stronger month for consumers' assessment of the present situation and expectations. Moreover, the sub-index measuring consumers' assessment of the present situation rose to 159.6 in April from 158.1 in March while the sub-index of consumers' expectations improved as well to 108.1 in April from 106.2 in March.

Let's now take a look at the S&P 500 technical picutre at the H4 time frame after the data was published. The market has dropped towards the level of the technical support at 260.48 despite the better-than-expected CB sentiment data. The momenutm is still pointing to the downside and the stochastics is indicating oversold market conditions after this last slide. The nearest techncial resistnace for bulls is seen at the level of 263.97. The market is still traiding inside the wide range between the levels of 254.64 - 271.00, so only a clear breakout in either direction will be considered as a trend change signal.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 25, 2018

high. Resistance is found at 91, where the September's low was made. My short-term target remains at 91.70, where the weekly kijun-sen is found.

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Black lines - triangle pattern

The Dollar index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud. Support is at 90.70. Resistance is at 91 and next at 91.70. If support fails to hold, we should expect price to move towards the 90.30 support by the kijun-sen in the 4 hour chart. A pull back to back test the broken triangle boundary is very possible. I continue to make the Dollar index bullish as long as we are above 90.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 25, 2018

Gold price bounced as expected yesterday, but the bounce was a shallow one. The price reached the broken short-term trend line support that was broken and back tested it. The price got rejected at the resistance previous support and is now back near the week lows. I expect the decline to stop around $1,310 and Gold to start a new upward move from that area.

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Red lines - trading range

Black line - resistance previous support

Gold price is in a bearish short-term trend. Weekly support is at $1,304. I do not believe we are going to break that level, but we are going to at least challenge $1,310. There is no bullish divergence yet. So, bulls that want to buy Gold, should be patient. Resistance is at $1,332. I believe we should see new lows near $1,310 before starting a new upward move in Gold.

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Brent ignores Donald Trump

Looking at how sensitively the currency and stock markets react to his twitter, Donald Trump decided to try the strength of his voice on raw materials. According to the US President, in circumstances when the storage facilities are flooded with oil to the very ears, OPEC artificially maintains very high prices. Brent and WTI reacted by a decrease of approximately $1 per barrel for each of the grades, but then quickly regained lost positions, returning to the highest level since November 2014. That is, those times when the cartel decided to cut production in order to stabilize the market. After 3.5 years, its effectiveness became apparent.

Success did not come immediately, but only after Russia and other producers joined the OPEC treaty. As a result of hard work and fulfillment of their obligations, global reserves returned to the levels of their 5-year averages. At the same time, the cartel has not yet given a single signal about its intention to curtail the deal, and Saudi Arabia claims that the world economy is able to withstand oil at a price of $75 per barrel.

Implementation of commitments by the OPEC countries

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Whatever Riyadh was thinking, judging by Donald Trump's twitter, Washington is already beginning to show concern. States actively import oil, which increases the deficit of their trade balance. And it is the state of foreign trade that the US president is obsessed with, which is proven by the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum. The owner of the White House has the opportunity to moderate the appetites of the "bulls" by Brent and WTI, who recently feel too freely (the ratio of long and short positions in the North Sea grade is 14 to 1). In order to do this, he needs the help of US shale producers. According to Wood Mackenzie's research, in order to generate free cash flow, these companies needed a price of $53 per barrel for the Texan grade. At the moment, it costs $69, so they have the opportunity to introduce new drilling rigs at their own expense.

In fact, not everything is so simple. First, shale producers face difficulties in increasing production, including the limited capacity of pipelines, the presence of intermediary companies and the need for consolidation in the industry. Secondly, the rise in prices leads to the emergence of petrodollars in the producing countries, which then enter the world economy and increase demand. These factors allow Goldman Sachs to predict a continuation of the Brent rally in the direction of $82.5 per barrel.

Let Donald Trump blame OPEC for the high price of oil, in fact, it was not without its intervention. OANDA believes that if Washington returns sanctions against Iran, the prices will rise by another $5.

Technically, the implementation of the target by 200% for the subsidiary of AB = CD and the formation of the "Three Indians" pattern increase the risks of rollback. Nevertheless, while quotes of Brent are above $72, the situation is completely controlled by the bulls.

Brent, daily chart

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 24, 2018

Bitcoin has been impulsive with the bullish gains recently. There was no significant deeper pullback to indicate any bearish intervention along the way. The bitcoin price is currently residing above the $9,300 price area after recently taking out the $8,500 with a daily close. Since the downtrend start in December 2017, this is the first time the price has been successful with consistent impulsive bullish pressure rallying over $2,500. As of the current scenario, the price has breached the Kumo Cloud which was expected to act as strong resistance for the price to push higher. Currently the price is expected to proceed towards $10,000 in the coming days and if the price succeeds to break above $10,000 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected with targets towards $11,500 in the future. As the price remains above the $7,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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