Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CHF for February 28, 2019

EURCHF was quite surprising today with an impulsive bearish pressure after series of corrective bullish momentum building up since the bounce of the 1.1150 area. CHF has been the dominant currency in the pair whereas having better economic reports recently while Eurozone struggles with the economic slowdown resulted in further CHF gains in the process.

Though EURO was quite optimistic ahead of economic reports published today, the actual result was a bit of a shock for the EURO buyers which resulted in the drastic fall against CHF. Today German Import Prices report was expected to increase to 0.2% but the actual result was published with -0.2%, French Prelim CPI was expected to increase to 0.4% but the actual result was published with 0.0% but French Consumer Spending showed a positive result with an increase to 1.2% which was expected to be at 1.1%.

Recently German Buba President Weidmann spoke about Eurozone's weakness where he stated that no interest rate increase should take place at least before summer. The growth rate of Euro is quite below the expectation and inflation development is currently going to be the main focus. As per Weidmann, temporary solutions can be applied but long-term sustainability is yet very much uncertain for Eurozone. According to ECB policymaker Villeroy, ECB should look at how to reduce the risks from negative interest rates. As per current situation, fluctuations in the interest rate can be quite risky but it will have its advantage in certain point but currently ECB is not quite convinced to work on the interest rate at least by the end of 2019.

On the CHF side, recently Credit Suisse Economic Expectation report was published with increase to -16.6 from the previous figure of -44.0 which impacted the growth of CHF quite positively and expected to lead to certain gains on the CHF in the process. Today CHF GDP report was unable to meet the expectation of 0.4% and was published with 0.2% while increasing from the previous value of -0.3% and KOF Economic Barometer was published with decrease to 92.4 from the previous figure of 96.2 which was expected to be at 95.2.

As of the current scenario, while Eurozone and CHF is struggling with the economic reports, ahead of Retail Sales report to be published tomorrow which is also expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.3%, CHF expected to have greater probability to gain sustainability with the upcoming gains if the results come positive in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of trend line support while breaking below 1.1350 support area with a daily close. Though the current candle has not closed yet but having such engulfing candle with tremendous bearish pressure in the building, further bearish momentum is expected in the coming days with target towards 1.1200-50 support area.

analytics5c77d8d35dca4.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: Results of the meeting of leaders of the USA and North Korea. Just a little time left before TLTRO launch

The results of the second summit devoted to the winding down of the North Korean nuclear program have become known today. As the White House said, US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un failed to reach a general agreement. All the statements made by Trump the day before that the two leaders managed to build excellent relations remained unheard by the leader of North Korea.

In his twitter, Trump wrote that the meeting with Kim Jong-un was productive, but for the time being, it would be wrong to sign anything. Trump also noted that he is committed to long, but productive negotiations, which, ultimately, will lead to the signing of a joint agreement that suits both parties.

The main obstacle at the end of the negotiations was trading sanctions, which the United States maintains against North Korea. However, one of the advantages is the fact that the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is ready to give up nuclear weapons.

As for the next meeting, there are currently no arrangements for additional summits with North Korea.

Meanwhile, the European currency continues to strengthen its position, despite the fact that many economists expect the European Central Bank at the next meeting to be held next Thursday, will announce the start of a new round of long-term targeted refinancing operations TLTRO. This will mitigate concerns about the need to refinance cheap loans, as well as preserve the soft lending conditions, which many investors and traders fear.

Given the risks of trade and political conflicts, along with weak macroeconomic statistics, the slowdown in the economic growth of the eurozone and its recession seems more real than before.

All this suggests that the ECB may even postpone the increase in interest rates for the next year, which in the medium term will weaken the position of the European currency or limit the upward correction in a pair with a weaker, for almost the same reasons, US dollar.

Today, data came out that showed that consumer spending in France in January of this year increased by 1.2% compared with December 2018, and by 1.0% compared with the same period last year. Economists had forecast growth in consumer spending by 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively.

Inflation in France is not so good. According to preliminary data, the consumer price index in February remained unchanged compared with January and grew by 1.3% year on year. France's preliminary CPI in February was forecast at 0.4%.

The preliminary consumer price index in Italy in February rose by only 0.2% and 1.1% per annum, which fully coincided with economists' forecasts.

XW50Qw8Cn5uEvNu96uMkiARPMIN5WAyZWk1r3KXM

In the afternoon, reports are expected on inflation in Germany, as well as the US GDP for the 4th quarter of 2018, which could significantly affect the EURUSD pair. If inflation in Germany remains stable, and US GDP turns out to be worse than forecast, then the demand for risky assets may increase substantially, which will lead the trading tool to update the highs of 1.1440 and 1.1460.

With a scenario of good performance in the growth rate of the American economy, and initially, they will be worse than in the 3rd quarter, the demand for the dollar may return, which will pull the EURUSD pair down to support levels of 1.1380 and 1.1340.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound buyers trapped

5Fq1xuJsyv2aHR4f2-JA5j-sMN_bmeHrwgrpBRt_

The pound sterling paired with the US currency continues to show positive, developing upward momentum. The highest mark on Wednesday was 1.3348, and on Thursday the GBPUSD pair gives up a little, hinting at the possibility of a weakening of the course.

vzZIGQf-goK4GsmyuVxOQT407Kb6Pjd3IpXNJ9iS

The enthusiasm of the trader is still connected with the expectation of postponing the date of the UK's official exit from the EU. British parliamentarians supported the proposal of Prime Minister Theresa May, agreeing to give their votes for the impossibility of exiting without a deal. In addition, they confirmed the need to appoint another, later date for the country's withdrawal from the union.

In a vote on amendments to the Brexit Bill, British officials supported the initiative with 502 votes. The roadmap of the sensational political "divorce" looks like this:

  • A new vote on the deal with Brussels will be held on March 12.
  • In the event of May's failure, the next day, March 13, the question would be raised that Britain would not leave the EU without a deal.
  • After making a decision that excludes the possibility of a "hard" exit, parliamentarians will vote to postpone Danske Bank to a later date. It will happen on March 14th.

However, there is no certainty that delaying exit from the EU will help the UK maintain access to the single European market, as well as to the European Customs Union. Do not overly hopeful that it will help to find a consensus on the temporary status of the backstop. Therefore, do not rush to further purchases of the pound.

Analysts at Danske Bank have a similar opinion, who advise skimming the cream from long positions in the UK currency. The bank recorded a profit on a short position in EURGBP, opened by means of options. In connection with the talk about the Brexit transfer, the sterling has noticeably strengthened its position, but experts are not sure if the trend will continue. In their opinion, the lack of fresh positive drivers may bring a correction, which Danske Bank prefer not to wait.

i6xesvMJrocBBPZHgaTUAMacA_toqf63uTRePBM4

Recall that the sale of the pair EURGBP was one of the bank's trading ideas, voiced at the end of last year. Banking analysts also talked about the advisability of buying a dollar against a basket of yen, the Swedish krona, franc and buying a 9-month call option in EURUSD with the simultaneous sale of a 3-month straddle.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: the reassessment of the prospects for the British currency by market participants can ensure its growth

L3F1mzSIY4FAR28ZIIolkJzN3q4LbtXmwsAVf_N0

On the eve of the British currency, it rose against the dollar to maximum values for the first time since June 2018. Today, the GBP / USD pair is trading near the 1.33 level.

bTY7ilPiKIiEMqD7t2WVKCN49Ywaq_q2E0UYKOBo

Recently, the pound has strengthened largely due to the fact that the chances for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union without a deal have sharply decreased.

"The positions of British Prime Minister Theresa May have been shaken, and her confident statements about the intention to implement Brexit according to the plan have replaced and promises have come in time to postpone the date of "divorce," said National Australia Bank (NAB).

They believe that the likelihood of negative scenarios for the pound has decreased, and a reassessment of the prospects for the British currency by market participants could ensure further growth of the GBP / USD pair.

"In our opinion, the most likely scenario is the extension of the term of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which in turn leaves three ways: a new variant of the deal with the EU, withdrawal from the alliance without an agreement, and rejecting Brexit, or rather holding a repeat referendum. Now politicians have started talking about the latter as a possible solution, which can add confidence to the bulls on the pound," representatives of the financial institute noted.

According to experts, the weakness of the greenback can also come out on the side of the buyers of the British currency.

Currently, traders are evaluating statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke for two days in a row in the US Congress. The head of the Fed has once again confirmed that the regulator intends to adhere to a patient approach to making decisions on monetary policy, including in the matter of raising interest rates. This puts pressure on the US currency.

le6u43toWmExOcSKOO6WuFJVlN8Eq3t3_4bBB756

Thus, if the postponement of the Brexit timeline helps to overcome the differences between the Cabinet and the British Parliament on the terms of the country's exit from the EU, and the dollar does not find a different basis for fundamental growth, the GBP / USD pair will be able to reach 1.37. However, the resumption of talk about the inevitable "hard" Brexit can quickly return to the market of sellers.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit and the Fed: EU leaders are not against a Brexit delay. Jerome Powell is concerned about the Fed's balance sheet

Yesterday, the British pound continued to hold the conquered maximums in tandem with the US dollar after the statements made by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The euro remained to trade in a narrow side channel after an unsuccessful attempt to resume growth in tandem with the US dollar.

The British pound received another support after French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that they would not object to the postponement of the British exit from the European Union.

Both leaders agreed that if the UK takes more time to make decisions, then there is no problem. However, it is not necessary to delay the final decision on the Brexit deal.

The data on the US economy, which came out in the second half of the day, and the speech of the Fed chairman did not have any impact on the EURUSD pair.

According to the report, the demand for US manufactured goods rose in December but turned out to be much worse than expected. According to the US Department of Commerce, production orders increased by 0.1% in January 2019 compared with the previous month. Economists had forecast an increase in orders of 0.6%. Excluding transport, orders dropped by 0.6% altogether.

tVXnzRqFUG5mdAA41INEPzhdsODX9thsv1FxVGYp

During his regular speech in the US Congress, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talked more about the Fed's current balance, its reduction and regulation.

Powell said that the demand for currency grew faster than the economy, and the demand for reserves remains much higher than before the financial crisis. He also noted that the committee needs to be extremely careful in adjusting the balance, and therefore it is difficult to determine what the equilibrium demand for reserves will be.

Powell also said that the Fed held three meetings in a row on the issue of balance. This makes it possible to announce a plan for completing the reduction of the balance soon, but work is still underway on this plan, which will be announced at upcoming meetings. After reducing the balance sheet, the Fed will be 16% -17% of GDP versus 6% before the crisis.

At the end of the speech, Jerome Powell noted that the financial system is now much better capitalized, and therefore the banking system must be able to withstand the shocks.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Only a confident breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1400, which I personally doubt very much, will allow us to expect new highs in the area of 1.1430 and 1.1460 to be updated with the trading instrument. A more interesting option for purchases will be a correction to support 1.1345 and 1.1315.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. February 28. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May's "Victory" in Parliament

4-hour timeframe

g_Z4Mho-AzS3Hhk0ScvCx1LCMUY4Y_1h3ZOWcYrj

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 99.4343

The GBP / USD currency pair continues its strong and recoilless upward movement. Yesterday, a growth catalyst came from the UK that the parliament adopted a new strategy for Prime Minister Theresa May regarding voting on Brexit issues. As we wrote earlier, now on March 12, the parliament will be able to vote for existing agreements with the EU (most likely, it will be rejected), on March 13 - for leaving the EU without a "deal", and on March 14 - for postponing the date of leaving the EU. In general, it is not clear why it is necessary to arrange the first two ballots and if it is absolutely clear to everyone that the parliament will reject the plan "B" of Theresa May, which differs little from the plan "A", and nobody needs the "hard" Brexit. Therefore, from our point of view, there is no victory for Theresa May, she simply ceased to put pressure on parliament with an impartial choice: either withdrawing from her Checkers plan, or without a "deal". France and Germany yesterday also commented on Brexit. These two countries fully support the postponement of the date, if that makes any sense. In general, we have come to the point where all the participants in this procedure recognize a certain stalemate and are ready to postpone Brexit to a later date. The most interesting thing is that the pound responds to these events very positively as if the agreement with the EU has already been signed. We still believe that this is a completely unreasonable reaction of the market, and the pound overbought, but we recommend to continue to follow the trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3306

R2 - 1.3428

R3 - 1.3550

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues the uptrend. Now buy orders with a target of 1.336 remain relevant, and if this target is overcome, with a target of 1.3428. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal a manual reduction of long positions.

It is recommended to open the short positions in case the pair overcome the moving average. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.3062.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 28, 2019

analytics5c77e8b7f06e1.png

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Since February 20, the EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating weak bullish recovery with sideway consolidations around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270).

This week, significant bullish recovery has emerged around the lower limit of the depicted H4 channel on Tuesday. However, Today, the pair has failed to fixate above 1.1400 with early signs of bearish rejection on the H4 chart.

This may indicate a high probability of a bearish reversal ONLY IF bearish breakdown below 1.1360 is achieved on H4 chart.

Please note that a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders can wait for a bearish breakout below 1.1360 as a valid SELL signal. T/P levels to be located around 1.1300 and 1.1250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 28, 2019 : GBP/USD is retracing towards its newly-established Demand-Zone.

analytics5c77e8c07e627.png

On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 (50% Fibonacci level) within the depicted H4 bearish channel.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155, 1.3240 and 1.3300.

Early signs of bearish reversal/retracement were demonstrated around the price level of 1.3317. Bearish pullback is expected to extend down towards 1.3240 and 1.3200 where price action should be watched cautiously.

Bullish persistence above the newly-established depicted demand-zone (1.3240-1.3155) is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3240 invalidates the short-term bullish scenario allowing a quick bearish movement to occur towards 1.3150 (lower limit of the demand zone).

Trade Recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.3240 for a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.3190. T/P levels to be located around 1.3290, 1.1330 and 1.3360.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 28. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Jerome Powell: public debt ceiling should be raised

4-hour timeframe

vhN66dLc6VoHCFiE2H5lO-oXEpJyI8jBXOCpmO1K

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up

CCI: 62.3383

The EUR / USD currency pair on Thursday, February 28, began a downward correction against a weak upward movement. In general, instrument volatility continues to be low. Important macroeconomic publications are still not in the EU or in the USA. Important news also comes from neither the States nor from Europe. Therefore, traders still have nothing to respond to. Today, America will receive data on GDP for the fourth quarter, but this will be only a preliminary value. GDP growth is expected to drop to 2.3% in the fourth quarter. What can be said in general about the technical picture of the instrument? The uptrend is very weak, but it still remains. Volatility is very low. Thus, now is an unfavorable time for active trading. Traders are advised to trade small lots on the Heikin Ashi indicator now. It will be possible to count on a new turn of the downward movement only after the price is fixed below the moving average line. From a state of coma, a pair could not even withdraw the speeches of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress. Although it must be admitted that he did not inform the super-important of the markets. Most of his speech was centered around the problem of US public debt, its increased growth rates and the need to raise the national debt ceiling since the absence of this action can lead to a "technical" default.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has begun to be adjusted, as indicated by the Heikin Ashi indicator. Thus, it will be possible to open new long positions after turning this indicator to the top with the target of 1.1414.

Sell positions can be considered after the price is fixed below moving. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for February 28. The bearish divergence pushes the pair back to 1.1285

4h

xR9LXKuMs2gznzXP_RarBVPbJQ12-klEvoLj0TDi

The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart consolidated above the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358, however, the growth of quotations has so far stalled. This consolidation allows traders to expect on February 28 the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.1446, especially if the pair rebounds from the correction level of 23.6%. The closing of quotations of the pair below the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of the US dollar and continuing to fall in the direction of the level of 1.1269.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

6oUB6iYF_X4143xVGaeeMy9wO9da8G-jSY_vZ7Bh

On the 24-hour chart, the pair continues the process of weak growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. However, the bearish divergence at the CCI indicator allows us to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and the pair to return to the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing quotes under this level will increase the chances of continuing to fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.0941. Passing the last peak of the divergence will allow you to count on the resumption of growth.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1446 if the pair disconnects from the level of 1.1358, and the Stop Loss order is below the level of 23.6%, but be careful, as there is a bearish divergence on the 24-hour chart.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.1269, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358, if the pair closes below the Fibo level of 23.6%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD for February 28. The bearish divergence and rebound - a new chance for the pair to

4h

TaFJ6KuKZXXbJl9rD_SU4WKW_yGc5O8ieEtw093M

The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart completed the peak of the bearish divergence and close above the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.3300. As a result, on February 28, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.3530. New emerging divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US dollar and expect a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

Sx8fWyQ2fGVxKVhPgxM430SX7vay8bzR-jwzsqrO

On the hourly chart, the pair completed the growth to the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.3337. Quoting the quotations from the Fibo level of 127.2% allowed the pair to make a U-turn in favor of the US currency and begin the process of falling in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.3217. Bearing divergence in the MACD indicator increases the likelihood of the pair to continue falling. However, closing quotations above the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the pound sterling and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.3492.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from January 25, 2019, and February 14, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.3349 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 127.2% if the pair closes above 1.3337 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out now with the target of 1.3217 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 127.2% since the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 1.3337 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 28. Pound takes a break and waits for news from Theresa May on Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The technical picture has not changed compared with the morning forecast and the option of continuing the growth of the British pound remains quite good. However, this requires the completion of a number of divergences on various indicators, as well as, a correction to the support area of 1.3266, to which the bears have not reached today in the morning. The main goal of the bulls is to breakthrough and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3346, which will lead to the renewal of new monthly highs around 1.3386 and 1.3437, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The demand for the pound is declining but to go against a strong uptrend is not quite the right decision. Sellers need to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance 1.3346. Only after such an event, you can count on a larger downward correction in the pound to the support area of 1.3266 and 1.3204, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of further growth with the trend, you can open short positions from a maximum of 1.3386 and better from a larger area of 1.3437.

More in the video forecast for February 28

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market but the price may move below the moving averages at any time, which will lead to a larger downward correction in the pound.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

rQZDiJ2yK3btJhEmiEEkOIiY6SUgU0hSjHpE5Q_0

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 28. Negative data is not an obstacle to the growth of the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the morning, a number of weak fundamental data on inflation from various eurozone countries did not interfere with the resumption of the upward movement in the euro. Fixing above the resistance level of 1.1403 and testing it on the volume from top to bottom in the second half of the day will be good signals for building up long positions in euro in consideration of the continuous upward correction to the area of maximum 1.1432 and 1.1459, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of EUR/USD decline under the support level of 1.1403, it is best to return to the euro from the support of 1.1374 for euro purchases.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Only a weak report on inflation in Germany and good data on the US economy can influence the pair to return to the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.1403, which will lead to the closure of long positions in the euro and a decrease to the minimum area of 1.1374 and 1.1348, where I recommend taking profits. In case of further growth of the pair amid poor statistics on US GDP for the 4th quarter of 2018, it is best to consider short positions after updating the resistance of 1.1432 or to rebound from a maximum of 1.1459.

More in the video forecast for February 28

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains in the region of 30- and 50- moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market with the advantage of euro buyers.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

Fn7Vzj5U2gZScHAa_8jw5Vg_cgHCCkI0i3ZGDAbe

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold rally continues due to geopolitical tensions

According to some analysts, the rally of gold price will be supported by an unstable geopolitical situation. This condition is aggravated due to the difficulties around Brexit and the unclear fate of the agreement on mutual trade between the US and China. Against this background, investors are still seeking to invest in safe assets, which include the yellow metal.

xyiXp8oKFQ15aRtZca8tzHKhkb8zH89TtlVzJTlH

The world's most popular precious metal maintains its uptrend. In August 2018, after reaching a minimum level of $ 1,160.88 per 1 ounce, the price of gold increased by 14%. At the beginning of 2019, its yield was an additional of 4%. According to a major expert and investor from US Global Investors, Frank Holmes, gold prices will continue to rise in the near future. The analyst is optimistic about the prospects for the precious metal. Experts of the large American bank Goldman Sachs agree with him. They predict a rise in the price of the yellow metal by the summer of 2019 by 4% to $ 1,374 per ounce. Goldman Sachs is confident that in a year the cost of the precious metal will reach $1,425. According to experts, given the possible start of a recession in the US economy and instability in global stock markets, the implementation of such a scenario is quite likely.

Experts believe that a number of reasons are important factors in the growth of the price of gold. One of them is the fall in the yield of US government bonds, which began in the autumn of 2018. In this situation, the US currency will be under pressure, which will positively affect the value of gold. Recall that the US dollar and the yellow metal are inversely correlated to each other. According to analysts' calculations, technical factors also indicate a rise in the price of gold. In 2012-2013, the precious metal fell heavily. At the moment, the price ranges from $1340 to $1350 per 1 ounce continues to be the resistance level. As soon as the price of gold can rise above this level, its growth will be more confident.

Another important factor in the rise in the price of gold may be the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. In this situation, the Chinese economy will receive a new impetus for development. This will increase the demand for commodities, including the yellow metal. Recall, the Middle Kingdom consumes almost 50% of many commodities. In a stable economic situation in the PRC, the middle class will acquire more jewelry.

The third key factor in the growth of gold prices is the policy of a number of world central banks. They regularly buy yellow metal for the reserves of their countries. Gold is becoming an important asset for them to diversify international reserves. Last year, global regulators acquired a record volume of gold since 1968. According to experts of the World Gold Council, the previous record could be broken at the end of this year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: next stop at 1.3520?

The British pound against the dollar is now forced to respond not only to the news background regarding Brexit prospects but also to events of a geopolitical scale. The threat of a war between India and Pakistan, as well as the failed US-DPRK negotiations in Vietnam, gave strength to the American currency, which again began to enjoy the status of a defensive asset. As a result, the GBP/USD bulls were forced to retreat from the annual highs but not entrenched in the area of the 33rd figure.

It is worth noting that the further movement of the pair is quite difficult to predict. From a technical point of view, the price has the potential for growth. The Ichimoku indicator has formed a bullish signal "Parade of lines" on the daily chart and the pair, itself, is on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. After this line was broken, corresponding to the 1.3280 mark, the next resistance level is the area of 1.3520, which was the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart. There are no other serious obstacles in technical terms but the fragile fundamental background does not allow to speak with confidence about the implementation of this option.

C6siTWBTzCI_fWCN5TjS2RgCm2GAjjTBxRCgunEA

The main engine of growth for the pair is the belief that Brexit will be postponed for several months and the country will avoid the chaotic scenario at least in March. Every day this confidence increases and pushes the GBP/USD pair upwards. At the same time, traders currently have little interest in further prospects for negotiations, which will be very difficult. But the market starts at the moment, "here and now", starting from the comments of British politicians and leaders of the EU countries.

For example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron said yesterday in Paris that they were ready to give Britain the opportunity to postpone Brexit "to a later date." However, they did not specify the permissible time frame, whereas earlier Merkel's representatives said that Germany would agree to postpone the key date only for a few months, namely until the end of June. However, this date will most likely become a new "deadline," since Theresa May also mentioned June in her speeches in the context of the extension of the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty.

Yesterday, the British Parliament approved May's plan for a strategy for further action. Hence, the deputies will give their assessment of the "updated" draft transaction on March 12. If they don't support him, the next day there will be a vote on Brexit without a deal. In case of failure of this option, on March 14, the parliament will consider the option of extending the term of the 50th article of the above contract (in other words, about deferring Brexit).

It is noteworthy that the parliament rejected Labor's legislative initiative yesterday. According to which, Britain remains in the Customs Union and the single market from the EU after the actual exit from the Alliance. After the opposition's fiasco, they again declared that they would submit a question of holding a second referendum to parliament. In spite of the fact that lately laborers are increasingly talking about lobbying for this idea, they have not yet taken any actual steps in this direction. None of the opposition voiced the new strategy while the question of holding a repeated referendum is very difficult from a legal point of view.

By the way, even Labor cannot answer key questions about the second referendum, for example, what then to do with the law that obliges Britain to leave the EU on March 29 this year? From which stage to begin negotiations with Brussels if the British re-agree on Brexit? Or Are the Europeans are categorically against revising the agreements reached? There are many questions such as these but most of them have no answer. One of the representatives of the Labor Party said yesterday that the British would be offered to make a choice between the May deal and the preservation of the country within the EU. However, this idea has not yet found a response among parliamentarians.

In other words, the most realistic scenario is the postponement of Brexit's date and further negotiations between the parties until the end of June. Although the option of approving the transaction is not excluded on March 12, most experts do not believe in it. At the same time, the option of the chaotic Brexit has dropped significantly at least in the context of the coming months.

vu3s6YMqK6emwYP2buwGuEsj_efn9WtJJSaD8QWC

All of these allow the pound to further strengthen, if not for one, "but" the deterioration of the geopolitical climate in the world. First, the conflict between India and Pakistan continues. According to a local media, the Pakistani military this morning fired mortar shells at settlements in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. From India, there was also an answer the skirmish lasted about an hour. International mediators have not yet succeeded in bringing the conflicting parties to the negotiating table, hence, the risk of nuclear war still persists.

Meanwhile, talks between Trump and the UN ended ahead of time. The United States did not agree to the conditions put forward by the DPRK. Thus, the leader of North Korea insisted on the lifting of sanctions before the dismantling of nuclear facilities but the American president insisted on the opposite. This news background slightly restored the dollar index position but it's too early to talk about a large-scale trend reversal, while the market still does not believe in a full-scale war between India and Pakistan and the leaders of the United States and the DPRK dispersed to the "ring corners" in a fairly friendly manner.

Thus, if the armed conflict does not get its continuation today, the pound will again try to gain a foothold in the 33rd figure with an eye to achieving the main upward goal of 1.3520.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for February 28, 2019

Bitcoin has been quite volatile after a recent bullish false breakout above $4,000. The price created a few inside bars where the third inside bar tried to push below the mother bar but failed with a Bullish Pin Bar daily candle bouncing off the Kumo Cloud support. The price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and Kijun line as support that is expected to lead the price towards $4,000 or even higher in the future.

The bullish bias is still quite intact but certain indecision rose in the market after the impulsive bearish pressure making the recent breakout as false above $4,000. Currently the price being above the Kumo cloud signals further upward momentum as Chikou Span is also holding above the dynamic levels and price line. As the price remains above $3,500-600 support area, the bullish pressure is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c77da4b11fad.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones of USD/CAD pair on 02.28.19

As long as the pair continues to trade above the weekly CZ of 1.3138-1.3119 with the growth remains to be the priority. The first goal of the upward movement is the 1/2 CZ of 1.3221-1.3211, formed from the low of the current week. All movement occurs in the accumulation phase, where transactions from flat boundaries are most profitable. Yesterday's purchases should be partially fixed when the price reaches the first goal while the rest can be transferred to breakeven.

D7O2UPn8rxUfDA71yX0PVArueIxX9r1O8KCdgYm_

Working within the framework of the flat does not provide an opportunity to count on a large number of profit points, therefore, partial fixation compensates for this moment and makes it possible to improve the risk-to-profit ratio after the instrument leaves the flat trend.

An alternative model will be developed if today's closure of the American session happens below the level of 1.3119. This will open the way for a further decline. The first goal of such a reduction will be the 1/2 CZ of 1.3022-1.3012. A movement to this zone will allow updating the February low or testing it already in the new month.

WQ4m02y0dAZdUMHwB2FFmJPPrei7VO3E40QXwe0k

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for February 28, 2019

BTC did a fake breakout of support at the price of $3.680, which is a clear-cut sign of a trend reversal.

analytics5c77cf80cf1d2.png

We found a strong rejection of the support at $3.680 in combination with the bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which is an obvious sign of a trend reversal. Support is seen at the price of $3.634 and resistance is at $3.900.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish about BTC from 3.810 with targets at $3.900 and $4.060. Protective stop is placed at $3.630.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for February 28, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1417. Bullish momentum is maintained.

analytics5c77cd4c7a6bc.png

We found the upward breakout of 1-day resistance at 1.1395, which confirms a further uptrend. I also found that bullish divergence in the background did set the bullish tone that EUR/USD is currently trading with. Key short-term resistance is seen at the price of 1.1511 and the support is at 1.1236.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish on EUR/USD from 1.1415 with a target at 1.1510. Protective stop is set at 1.1360.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (February 28)

The currency pair Euro / Dollar for the last trading day showed low volatility with 41 points. However, you still have to pay tribute, the movement was focused on a logical pullback. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the previously predicted level of 1.1400 perfectly plays the role of temporary resistance; and a correction towards the recently passed cluster of 1.1370 (1.1320 / 1.1370) began to form in relation to it. The news background continues to focus on Brexit. This time, we have the statement of the British Parliament, which supported the proposal of Prime Minister Theresa May on the need to postpone the withdrawal of the country from the European Union. At the same time, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron agree to a postponement of Brexit. "If the UK needs more time, we will not deny her that," - Merkel said. Naturally, this kind of background continued to stimulate the British currency, but the euro did not feel the problem on itself.

analytics5c77925f6a557.jpg

Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we have preliminary data on US GDP for the 4th quarter, where everything is not so good, a decline from 3.4% to 2.6%.

16:30 Moscow time - GDP (q / q) ( 4 q.)

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the pullback led us to the previously passed cluster of 1.1320 / 1.1370, and the upper limit plays a temporary pivot point. It is likely to assume that due to negative statistics on the United States, we can return to the value of 1.1400, but then we need to look further. While there is a hypothesis of bumpy 1.1370 / 1.1400, then we will have to analyze its borders for a breakdown.

analytics5c7792956c0b9.png

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider to buy positions in case of price fixing above 1.1400 with the prospect of a move towards 1.1440. A more risky approach is considered in terms of short-term progress to 1.1400, based from current values.

We consider selling positions in the case of price fixing below 1.1370 with the prospect of a move to 1.1320.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short, intraday and medium term, there is still an upward interest on the general background of the market. Indicators on smaller TFs changed to ascending order after the support reached near 1.1370.

fdT7o9omM27b-WfmIRDvYLZ97Nksw_B_9b8cKaQD

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 28, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 17 points. In the case of turmoil within the boundaries of 1.1370 / 1.1400, the volatility will remain low. However, in case of a breakdown, we are expecting that things will become more interesting.

ItewLtGXW5Fil3h7iZo0qojFGmQX3pB7kYwdCoZ4

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1340 *; 1,1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for February 28, 2019

Gold made a fake breakout of the 4-day support at the price of $1.320.73, which is a sign that sellers got trapped.

analytics5c77c7687b575.png

We found a fake breakout of the 4-day low ($1.320.73 and the upward breakout of the 16H balance, which is strong bullish sign. Another confirmation of strength is the bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator. Support is seen at the price of $1.316.80 and resistance is at $1.332.95-$1.346.05.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish about Gold from $1.325.00 with the stop at $1.316.00. Upward targets are set at $1.332.95 and $1.346.06.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Data on US GDP can harm the dollar. Forex Market Forecast for February 27

Signals for the EUR / USD pair:

A breakout on the level of 1.1403 will lead to the growth of the euro in the level of 1.1432 and 1.1459. On the other hand, a breakdown to 1.1368 will lead to the sales of the euro in the area of 1.1348 and 1.1317.

Signals for the GBP / USD pair:

A breakout on the level of 1.3346 will lead to an increase in the pound in the area of 1.3386 and 1.3440. Alternately, a breakdown to 1.3266 will lead to the sales of the pound in the area of 1.3204 and 1.3144.

Fundamental data:

Revision in GDP in Italy

Consumer Price Index in Italy

French Consumer Price Index

German Consumer Price Index

Changes in GDP for the quarter US

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 28, 2019

analytics5c77bc249faed.png

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0019, which represents the double top in the H1 chart. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.0019 to the bottom around 0.9945. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9980 followed by 1.0019, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9940 and 0.9891. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9980 and 0.9891. Hence, we expect a range of 89 pips in coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.9980, for that if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9980, the market will decline further to 0.9891. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9891 in order to test the second support (0.6693). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.0019 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP / USD pair on February 28, 2019

GBP / USD pair

On Wednesday, the slight consolidation of the British pound below the level of 1.3257 resulted in growth to our next target level of 1.3314, even with a slight overlap. However, the candlestick bodies are still being consolidated exactly under the price level on the four-hour chart. The current consolidation is seen closer to the turn with the bearish divergence on both daily and four-hour charts which is becoming more pronounced. The price can grow a little more, probably to 1.3362 headed towards the peak level on July 9 last year without disturbing the formation of divergence, but this will be the last spurt in the current technical picture.

The price can turn right now but there will be no signal to open a short position today, possibly tomorrow as well, since the signal level is 1.3108. After overcoming the said level, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator may be in the zone of decline with another 184 points to the signal level. The immediate goal of the decline is 1.2952 which is the nested line in the price channel of the higher timeframe and the tendency of the MACD line of the day-time schedule to position. Also, this level is the maximum of February 13th.

_YmadiiNeJqH-guK7yjM7C8haLc-aqm4loaXBR86

iRy6ryKWu6c03fseqvs6dRfiFkg5eSN1Sg_JBxTE

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 28, 2019

analytics5c77b4742c0d0.png

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.3130 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3130 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3130. So, buy above the level of 1.3300 with the first target at 1.3524 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.3524 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.3300, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.3524 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3130, a further decline to 1.3080 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 28. The news background is neutral, the pair is stalling

VeaaxsfCHuSL-Hn6m3m-e8K10VOqp99LOKYZu-RV

Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, February 27, trading ended for EUR / USD by a 20 bp decline. Thus, there appeared another reason to assume that the construction of the upward wave was completed, which is now identified as 4. The instrument did not reach the Fibonacci level of 61.8% in just a few bp. If the current wave counting is correct, then a new decline may begin from the current positions within the fifth wave of the downtrend trend with targets located about 12 figures. However, the news background is now absolutely neutral and does not support any of the currencies, which makes it difficult not only to fall, which is logical for the wave pattern, but also a possible increase in quotations.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1408 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1448 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair resumed building wave 4. Thus, I am still waiting for a new signal about the completion of the upward wave to open sales of the pair with targets located near the minimum of the supposed wave 3. The empty news calendar is now an obstacle to movement in any direction. As a result, the wave pattern may require certain adjustments.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 28, 2019

analytics5c77b1a2639cc.png

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair below around the weekly pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target of 1.1335. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1294. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1453.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 28, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

On Thursday, the price may continue to roll back down afterwards. The first lower target of 1.1340 is the recoil level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price after lunch may continue to roll back down. The first lower target of 1.1340 is the recoil level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 28, 2019

analytics5c77a9fe455eb.png

Overview: The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the levels of 1.3228 and 1.3166. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3166, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3166, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CAD pair to trade between 1.3166 and 1.3328. So, the support stands at 1.3166 , while daily resistance is found at 1.3328. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3166. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3166 with the first target at the level of 1.3328; and continue towards 1.3295. However, if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3328 today, the market will decline further to 1.3166 -1.3200.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for February 28, 2019

GBP has been the dominant currency in the pair since the price bounced off the 0.91 area with a daily close. A slowdown in the eurozone ahead of BREXIT next month helped GBP to sustain the bearish momentum in the period of uncertainty.

Recently German Buba President Weidmann spoke about eurozone's weakness. He stated that no interest rate increase should take place at least until summer. The eurozone's economic growth rate falls short of expectation. Inflation development is currently going to be the main focus. Citing Weidmann, temporary solutions can be applied but long-term sustainability is yet very much uncertain for the eurozone. According to ECB policymaker Villeroy, the ECB should decide how to reduce the risks from negative interest rates. At present, any changes in the key interest rate can pose a risk, though it it will have its advantage to some extent. Meanwhile, the ECB is not quite convinced to change its soft monetary policy at least by the end of 2019.

Today French Consumer Spending report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.1% from the previous value of -1.5%, German Import Price Index is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of -1.3%, French Prelim CPI is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of -0.4%, Spanish Flash CPI is expected to increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 1.0%, and Italian Prelim CPI is also expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%.

On the other hand, Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney spoke about the possibility of BREXIT without a deal which would bring in greater risk for the financial services stability. According to Carney, "the biggest issue from a financial stability perspective, from a market integrity perspective, from continuity perspective, is a no-deal scenario by the end of March". The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29th but the question is still open whether Brexit will be with or without a deal. Moreover, Premier Theresa May survived another vote as she slowly brings her opponent on her side. Avoiding confrontation with the EU indicates that BREXIT can go without a deal.

Meanwhile, EUR is quite optimistic with the upcoming economic reports, while the UK is fastly approaching the Brexit deadline. Though GBP is the dominant currency right now, EUR could take advantage from positive eurozone's economic reports.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trying to push higher towards 0.8650 as of Mean Reversion towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As the trend is bearish, not much of a counter-trend expected. However, certain retracement along the way towards 0.8650 is expected before the price continues with the bearish pressure in the future.

analytics5c77845e3d353.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 28. Pound stopped near the mark of 1.3340

12P7mYOBAan-ycJg1-vwvsUBXtxJnpmG8iT-wApA

Wave counting analysis:

On February 27, the GBP / USD pair reached 127.2% in Fibonacci, gaining another 60 bp at the end of the day. Thus, the entire upward set of waves, which began its construction on January 3, took the form of an expanding triangle. Once again, according to Fibonacci, the unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 127.2% indicates that the pair is ready to complete not only the rising wave, but also the entire trend section. However, the news background, which unexpectedly supporting the pound in recent days, can continue and further cause demand for the pound. At the same time, a rebound from the level of 127.2% in itself is a good opportunity to play for a fall.

Shopping goals:

1.3333 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3489 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the completion of the construction of the ascending wave and the transition to the construction of a downward set of waves. I now recommend waiting for a clear signal about the completion of the rising wave e, since the current news background and its interpretation by the market can continue to support the pound sterling. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 127.2% might be such a signal, so small sales are now expedient with a protective order above 1.3340.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 28, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price will move up after lunch. The first upper target 1.3409 is the 50.0% sliding level (yellow dotted line).

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price will move up after lunch. The first upper target 1.3409 is the 50.0% sliding level (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (February 28)

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 116 points, continuing the upward movement on emotions. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after a slight stagnation, the upward movement resumed most likely on a certain emotional mood, even though many traders were waiting for a logical pullback after this kind of impulse. As a result, we have an entry into the range level of 1.3300, where we have formed stagnation. Naturally, the information and news background provided support for this emotional mood. Yesterday, in the late afternoon, the UK Parliament supported Theresa May's proposal to postpone the withdrawal of the country from the EU. At the same time, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel and French President, Emmanuel Macron agreed to to postpone Brexit. Naturally, this attitude was supported by a speculative upward move, resulting to the level of 1.3348 on the trading chart.

XWPEixQWw7-Y8_gT5VTTRQzuD2cEj55YrN0_6M4v

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have preliminary data on US GDP for the 4th quarter, wherein everything is not so good, since there is a decline from 3.4% to 2.6%.

16:30 Moscow time - GDP (q / q) (4 q.)

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, the word "rollback" suggests itself. From the point of view of logic and of all technical analysis, we have a wide overbought, and a resistance level in the face of the value of 1.3300. But at the same time, we have pretty bad statistics from the United States, and the emotional attitude regarding Brexit still holds the market. Thus, the first thing we consider is the stagnation along the level of 1.3300, where I do not exclude the attempt of bears to break through the current congestion in the downward direction. However, I do not exclude the subsequent return to this level at the same time.

-iHL-PqT3CImVZXK2aqJC6REk5Nwb763ZZwKhzK0

Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions for purchase, as written earlier, overbought is overwhelming, but the emotional mood is preserved. Thus, if we consider the position to buy at a given time, it is already above 1.3350, otherwise we are already looking for the entry point after a rollback.

- We consider selling positions below 1.3275, while the prospect is 1.3220 (first point).

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sector of time frames (TF), we see that there was a downward interest against the background of stagnation of 1.3300 in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term prospects both maintain an upward mood against the background of recent impulses.

sfVqyd-lqKzXG9zoAlyGEHKo_3puRsTU9Noz4zW0

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 28 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 26 points. In the case of a correction, we can see the volatility equal to the average daily fluctuation.

dyzrFYA1petlWCTArjj9RAD0JgpQkuPKsR0EOMDq

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3300; 1.3200; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 02/28/2019

Positive news came out:

British Prime Minister Theresa May has pledged to the Parliament that she will offer a vote - to postpone the Brexit date - in case she fails to find a compromise and hold the agreement through the Parliament. This means that there will be no "hard Brexit" - that is, without an agreement with the EU. It is assumed that the last vote will be March 12 (the deadline for Britain's withdrawal from the EU is March 29).

The second positive - from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Powell delivered a semi-annual report to Congress and said that the US central bank plans to complete the withdrawal of liquidity from the economy in the coming months. This means that the Fed will stop tightening monetary policy - and quite likely stops hiking rates - of course, if inflation does not begin to rise.

There has been progress in the US-China trade negotiations. At a minimum, Trump postponed the increase in duties against China, previously scheduled for March 1.

EURUSD: There is everything you need for an upward trend. However, while there is no growth, it is quite likely that the trend is hampered by the noticeable differential of rates in favor of the dollar.

The coming days will show whether buyers will be able to develop a trend to the top - or there will be a turn down.

We buy euros from 1.1375.

Alternative: Sell the euro from 1.1315. Target - up to 400-500 points.

ovNPF-5luSRibwGSGf89lz6tDwlqGS2ZIJEA-qBL

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 28. The growth potential of the pound remains, but is limited by a number

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The option to continue the British pound's growth remains quite good, but this requires the completion of a number of divergences on various indicators, as well as a correction to the support area of 1.3266, where the formation of a false breakdown will be the first signal to buy GBP/USD. The main goal of the bulls is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3346, which will lead to the renewal of new monthly highs around 1.3386 and 1.3437, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound sharply decreases, you can buy immediately on a rebound from a low of 1.3204.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Demand for the pound is declining, but to go against a strong uptrend is not quite the right decision. Sellers need to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance of 1.3346. Only after that will you be able to count on a larger downward correction in the pound to the support area of 1.3266 and 1.3204, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of further growth with the trend, you can open short positions from a high of 1.3386, and better from a larger area of 1.3437.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates further growth of the market.

Bollinger bands

The break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3333 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound.

lLIbay-lNqc4XkcJkSZzL_Qzo7eS8_ltRA1n3tbS

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for February 28, 2019

Investors are selling USD because it lost shine due to some weighty factors while. However, some economic data confirms steady economic growth with solid employment. In the course of the painstaking trade talks between the US and China on import tariffs, CHF managed to gain momentum with positive economic reports published recently.

Recently FED's Chairman Jeromy Powell stated that the regulator decided to halt tapering its $4 trillion balance sheet later this year. According to Powell, they have already worked out a plan to normalize a balance sheet which will leave it at 16 to 17 percent of GDP which is up from 6 percent since the financial crisis a decade ago. Today US Advance GDP report is going to be published which is expected to drop to 2.2% from the previous value of 3.4%, Advance GDP Price Index is expected to edge down to 1.7% from the previous value of 1.8%, and Unemployment Claims is expected to increase to 221k from the previous figure of 216k.

On the CHF side, recently Credit Suisse Economic Expectation report was published with an increase to -16.6 from the previous figure of -44.0 which contributed to CHF growth. With such solid support, CHF is expected to gain ground further. Today Switzerland's GDP report is going to be published which is expected to expand to 0.4% from the previous value of -0.2% and KOF Economic Barometer is expected to increase marginally to 95.2 from the previous figure of 95.0. Besides, Retails Sales report is due tomorrow which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.3%. In this context, CHF has weighty reasons to maintain momentum if positive forecasts some true.

Meanwhile, CHF enjoys strong fundamentals while USD is struggling for gains. On the whole, the currency pair aims to retain the bullish momentum. Until the US comes up with better than expected economic results, CHF is likely to extend gains.

Now let us look at the technical view. After the price formed Bearish Continuous Divergence and reached the 61.8 Fibo expansion level, the bearish pressure has extended quite strongly. So, the price is expected to move lower towards 0.9950 and later towards 0.9850 in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

analytics5c7776c5e67cd.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com