Daily analysis of Gold for May 09, 2017

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Overview

The gold price has been showing slightly negative trading in attempt to pull away from 1,229.32 levels, thus keeping the bearish trend expectations for today. If the price settles below the mentioned level, a breach of it will push the price to test the most important resistance for the short-term trading between 1,245.30 and 1,254.56. The EMA50 keeps placing the price under negative pressure supporting the chances for heading towards our next main target at 1,208.92. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,210.00 support and the 1,235.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for May 09, 2017

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Overview

The silver price made negative attempts this morning after retesting the previously broken support for the bearish pennant flag pattern. This supports the continuation of our bearish trend expectations for targeting 15.49 as the next main station efficiently in the upcoming sessions. You should be aware that after suffering the expected negative pressure the price could attempt to regain the main bullish trend. The expected trading range for today is between the 15.90 support and the 16.40 resistance.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for May 9, 2017

EUR/JPY had a good amount of bullish pressure on the back of the French Election recently. Recently, EUR has totally dominated JPY in every possible way and has created a higher high above the resistance of 123.50. Today in the eurozone, Germany's Industrial Production was released which was positive at -0.4% instead of the expected fall to -0.6%. German Trade Balance was published with a decreased figure at 19.6B which was expected to be at 21.2B. Italian Retail Sales report was also published with a decreased figure at 0.0% which was expected to be at 0.2%. After the French election, French Government Budget Balance report was published today which was negative at -29.6B which previously was at -21.5B. On the other hand, Japan's Average Cash Earnings report was published with a negative figure at -0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.4%. Overall, EUR seemed to have a greater advantage over JPY in light of today's economic reports but if tomorrow's BOJ Summary of Opinions report comes positive for JPY, then we might see a different picture where JPY might gain some grounds over EUR.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has already rejected bears off the 123.50 level yesterday. Currently the price is over the 123.50 level. If we see a daily close above that level today we will be looking forward to buy with a target towards 125.00 onwards. On the other hand, if the price closes below 123.50 with a daily close, then we will be looking forward to sell with a target towards 121.10 support level.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for May 9, 2017

GBP/USD has bounced off from 1.2980 resistance after an impulsive volatile bullish trend recently. Today on the GBP front, BRC Retail Sales Monitor report was published with a positive figure at 5.6% which previously was at -1.0%. On the USD side, we have JOLTS Job Opening reports to be published which is expected to show a decreased figure at 5.67M which previously was at 5.74M. Besides, Final Wholesale Inventories data is expected to remain unchanged at -0.1%. Despite a positive economic report from the UK, GBP failed to gain strength against USD today. As US reports are yet to be published later today, we might see a further gain in the USD in the coming hours if the reports come better than expected.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price bounced off from the resistance of 1.2980 yesterday and currently bears are quite powerful in this pair. As the pair has already rejected bulls early in the morning, currently we are expecting a further bearish move in this pair with a target towards 1.2800 support level. A daily close with a bearish candle will increase the chances of the price moving more downward in the coming days.

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Global macro overview for 09/05/2017

Global macro overview for 09/05/2017:

On Monday, Saudi Arabia reconfirmed its commitment to doing "whatever it takes" to keep oil prices steady and increase them in the nearest future. Oil prices have been affected by the persistent oil glut for the past two years, so the OPEC countries agreed to cut the production since the beginning of 2017 for the first half year. The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for the end of May in Vienna. It is almost certain, that OPEC members will discuss the current production cut results. Moreover, it is very possible, that the OPEC members will decide to extend the production cuts not only through 2017 but even into 2018 if necessary.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CAD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. This pair is highly correlated with the Crude Oil prices (oil up, EUR/CAD down), mostly due to the Canadain Dollar which is a commodity currency. The price reached the level of 1.5155 and since then the market is in a corrective decline. The weekend gap between the levels of 1.4599 - 1.4483 has still not been filled. But if oil price extends gains, then this zone will be tested very quickly. The stochastic oscillator indicates a young stage of an oversold market, so some corrective pullback towards the level of 1.4950 is expected. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.4730 and any violation of this level will open the road towards the weekend gap.

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EUR/USD analysis for May 09, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.0903. According to the daily time frame, I found a bearish outside bar (reversal bar) and today the market made a high first and then the price made a new low, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Targets are set at the price of 1.0855 and 1.0820.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.0995

R2: 1.1020

R3: 1.1065

Support levels:

S1: 1.0912

S2: 1.0890

S3: 1.0845

Trading recommendations for today: consider selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 09/05/2017

Global macro overview for 09/05/2017:

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the Retail Sales declined -0.1% in March for a second consecutive month. Market participants expected a 0.3% increase after -0.2% decline a month ago, so the disappointment led to a sell-off of the Australian Dollar across the board. Among retail sectors, food retailing increased 0.1%, while household goods and clothing sales fell. The question remains, whether this might be a beginning of a new downside trend or this is just a seasonal corrective decline in sales. Like many advanced economies, Australia relies heavily on consumer spending, so consumption is very important part and the main driver of the domestic recovery.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/JPY technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market filled the weekend gap but is still struggling to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 84.52. The momentum remains positive and there is still no sign of the overbought market, so the attempt to break out above the 84.52 resistance is still possible. The next important support is 50% Fibo at the level of 82.42.

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Analysis of GBP/USD for May 09, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.2931. The analysis from yesterday is still active. I have noticed a fake breakout of the 20-day high and overbought RSI. My advice is to watch for selling opportunties. The downward targets are set at 1.2835 and 1.2760.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2980

R2: 1.2995

R3: 1.3020

Support levels:

S1: 1.2930

S2: 1.2915.

S3: 1.2890

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading plan for 09/05/2017

Trading plan for 09/05/2017:

Tuesday night in the markets was definitely calm. EUR/USD is trading in a range in a dozen or so pips around 1.0925. A similar scale of volatility shows USD/JPY as it is hovering around 113.00 level. The Australian dollar is again one of the worst performers. The Asian session was calm after yesterday's strong changes. Shanghai Composite is, however, at the slightest minus. The Gold ounce is still trading at $1230. WTI is priced at less than $46.50 a barrel.

On Tuesday 9th of May, the event calendar is light in fundamental data, but global investors will pay attention to Building Permits data from Canada and JOLTs Job Openings data from the US. There are two speeches from the FOMC members scheduled later in the day as well.

USD/CAD analysis for 09/05/2017:

The Building Permits data are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and market participants expect a 4.2% increase in the number of new building projects authorized for construction in Canada. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture. After reaching the top at the level of 1.3749, the price reversed and now is trading inside of a tight range between the levels of 1.3646 - 1.3758. In case of worse than expected data, the price might break out below the support at the level of 1.3646 and head towards the level of 1.3529, where the next technical support is.

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EUR/USD analysis for 09/05/2017:

The speeches from FOMC Member Robert Kaplan and Neel Kashkari are the most important fundamental factors that might have an impact on EUR/USD today. EUR/USD did not move much after the French election ressults were announced yesterday, so comments from the FOMC members might be weighty reasons for markets to move them a bit.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The bulls are trying to get back control over this market as the price is bouncing from the old golden trend line around the level of 1.0900. Nevertheless, the market is still trading in a tight range between the levels of 1.0872 and 1.0950 and only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.0950 would be considered as bullish. Any hawkish comments from the FOMC members will make EUR/USD to dive pretty quickly towards the technical support at the level of 1.0872 and below.

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Market snapshot: Crude Oil still trades below the important resistance

The level of $47.10 is the most important level for bulls. If they want to regain the control over this market, they need to violate this level and head towards the next technical resistance at the level of $48.18. The momentum is still positive and strong, so the bias remains bullish. No sigh of a negative divergence yet.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 09, 2017

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 09, 2017

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for May 9, 2017

The Dollar index is bouncing as we expected from our last post. Price is now trying to break above the 4-hour Kumo resistance and move towards the first Fibonacci retracement level of importance at 99.60.

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Red line - resistance

The Dollar index has broken above the red trend line resistance. Trend is neutral in the 4-hour chart as price is inside the 4-hour Kumo. Important short-term resistance is at 99.37 and 99.60. The upper cloud boundary and the 38% Fibonacci retracement are the levels to watch.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The Dollar index has broken below the green long-term trend line support and is now trying to get back inside. The bounce was justified and awaited since last week. Resistance is at 100.20 (tenkan-sen) and at 100.60 (red trend line). Support is at 97.50 at the weekly upper Kumo boundary.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for May 9, 2017

Gold price is trading around $1,220-$1,210 support area and the downside is limited currently. Price is expected to make a strong move higher at least towards $1,260.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price is trading below the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) and has short-term resistance at $1,237 and next at $1,260. Trend is still bearish. Only a break above the Kumo will change trend to bullish and open the way for a push towards $1,400. If Gold price gets rejected at the cloud, we should expect the next downward move to push towards $1,180.

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Black line - resistance trend line

Blue line - support

Gold price held support at the lower cloud boundary. Price however remains inside the Kumo and weekly trend remains neutral. Bulls need a break above the black trend line resistance and above the Kumo at $1,290. The worst case scenario for bulls will be a pullback towards the blue trend line support at $1,160 before the next big leg up.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 9, 2017

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Wave summary:

As expected, the corrective decline from 1.6020 is extending and should be able to reach support seen at 1.5644 before completing and setting the stage for the next impulsive rally higher towards at least 1.6655, and much higher levels towards 1.7196 and 1.7564 should be expected in the longer term. However, at first we need to allow the wave ii to complete near 1.5644.

Only a direct break above 1,5958 will indicate that the corrective decline in wave ii is completed early.

R3: 1.6072

R2: 1.6020

R1: 1.5958

Pivot: 1.5860

S1: 1.5776

S2: 1.5728

S3: 1.5644

Trading recommendation:

We are looking to buy EUR at 1.5665 or upon a break above 1.5958

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 9, 2017

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Wave summary:

The corrective decline in wave B is unfolding as expected. We should now see minor resistance at 124.02 protecting the upside for the next decline to the 120.69 target. This will likely complete wave B and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave C. That said, we need to allow for wave B to run it course before deeming it complete.

Short term, a break below minor support at 123.61 will indicate the the ongoing x-wave is complete and wave y lower towards 120.69 is unfolding.

R3: 124.52

R2: 124.33

R1: 123.02

Pivot: 123.80

S1: 123.61

S2: 123.44

S3: 123.11

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 123.50. We will move our stop lower to 124.15. Our take profit will be placed at 120.85.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 09, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Retail Sales m/m, French Gov Budget Balance, German Trade Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will release a series of statistics too such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0980.

Strong Resistance: 1.0974.

Original Resistance: 1.0963.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0952.

Target Inner Area: 1.0927.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0902.

Original Support: 1.0891.

Strong Support: 1.0880.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0874.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.6847. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.6847, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. The level of 0.6847 coincides with the double bottom, which is expected to act as a minor support today. Besides, the double bottom is seen at the point of 0.6847. Since the trend is above the level of 0.6847, the market is still in an uptrend because the major support is seen at the level of 0.6847. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is heading upwards. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.6847 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6998. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.6998, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7053 in order to test the double top. Besides, it should be noted that the pivot is seen at 0.6922. However, the price spot of 0.6847 and 0.6871 remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend is still bullish as long as the level of 0.6847 is not breached.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9949. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9949, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. In addition, the price has set above the major support at the level of 0.9949, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming domination of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9949 and 1.0033. So, the support is seen at the level of 0.9949, while daily resistance is found at 1.0033. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.9949. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 0.9949 with the first target at the level of 1.0033; and continue towards 1.0093. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0033 today, the market will decline further to 0.9949 to retest it again.
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Daily analysis of USDX for May 09, 2017

The index managed to hold the support zone of 98.42 and it's currently consolidating above the 200 SMA on H1 chart. The next resistance is placed around 99.28, where a breakout should open the doors to test the 99.63 level, but overall, the structure is calling for further weakness in the greenback to re-test the support level of 98.42.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.28 / 99.63

H1 chart's support levels: 98.77 / 98.42

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 98.77, take profit is at 98.42 and stop loss is at 99.13.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 09, 2017

GBP/USD struggled to reach the psychological level of 1.3000 and remains well consolidated below the 1.2950 zone. Currently, the price action points to test the 200 SMA on H1 chart, where a dynamic support can be found in the short term. Around that area, we can expect further bullish momentum in the Cable in order to test the 1.3030 level in coming days.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2957 / 1.3029

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2855 / 1.2652

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2957, take profit is at 1.3029 and stop loss is at 1.2887.

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Daily Video Technical Analysis | AUD/JPY | 8th May 2017

We take a nice detailed look at AUD/JPY and see if there are any trading opportunities for us to make some juicy pips!

We combine the art of Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, Support & Resistance along with Stochastic and the RSI to determine the best entry, stop loss and profit targets.

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EUR/USD testing major resistance, prepare to sell

We are now seeing price test major resistance at 1.0980 (multiple fibonacci extensions, Elliott wave theory) and we expect a drop from this level to at least 1.0880 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is also seeing major resistance below the 95% level where we expect a drop from.

Correlation analysis: EUR/USD has a strong negative correlation with USD/CHF which means they usually move in opposite directions. We are expecting a drop on EUR/USD and similarly USD/CHF which means it is best to exercise caution on this trade.

Sell below 1.0980. Stop loss at 1.1033. Take profit at 1.0880.

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AUD/USD forming a nice reversal, time to start buying

Price has formed a really nice 5-wave movement going down. This is the first sign of a good bullish bounce. We look to buy above 0.7383 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, bullish divergence) for a bounce up towards 0.7461 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Elliott wave theory, horizontal pullback resistance).Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major support above the 4% level where we expect a bounce from. We can also see bullish divergence vs price signalling that a bounce is impending.Correlation analysis: AUD/USD has a strong positive correlation with NZD/USD which means they usually move together. We are expecting a rise on AUD/USD and a drop on NZD/USD, hence it is best to exercise caution on this trade.

Buy above 0.7383. Stop loss at 0.7359. Take profit at 0.7461.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached, time to start selling

Price has shot up from our buying area and reached our profit target perfectly. We now prepare to sell below 83.63 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Elliott wave theory) for a drop towards 82.82 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support, Elliott wave theory).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 92% level where we expect a drop from.

Sell below 83.63. Stop loss at 84.12. Take profit at 82.82.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for May 08, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair finally seems to have formed a meaningful top today after gapping up in early hours but then reversing sharply lower. The pair is seen to be trading at 1.0937/38 levels for now, looking to a further push lower towards 1.0890/1.0900 levels today. If it does drop though the above-said levels, the wave count would suggest an impulsive drop complete on an hourly chat. The pair would be absolutely safe to be sold on rallies there after, with price being tapped below 1.1022 levels going forward. Please note that the top formed today could be wave (2) of a larger degree and that waves (3), (4) and (5) could resume lower from here on. The pair should be looking to resume a long-term bear trend and push prices lower toward parity levels in the coming weeks. Immediate support is seen at 1.0875 levels, while resistance is at 1.1022 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Remain short and also look to sell intraday rallies, stop above 1.1022, the target is open. Please note this trading plan will take several weeks to unfold. The strategy would be to keep adding there.

GBPUSD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair looks to be finally topping out with the daily chart producing an engulfing bearish trade signal as seen here. The pair is trading at 1.2037 levels for now and seems to have completed wave 2 within 5-wave drop going forward. Please also note that fibonacci 0.618 resistance is also seen right within the vicinity of price action and to confirm a bearish reversal should be quite encouraging to bears going forward. The rally since October 2016 is still corrective (A-B-C). If this wave count holds to be true, the pair should unfold into 5 waves lower from here at least towards 1.1900 levels in the weeks to follow. On the flip side, a push through 1.2988 levels could print yet another high before resuming lower again. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2988 levels, while support is at 1.2900 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Flat for now, looking to sell on rallies.

Good luck!

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