BITCOIN Analysis for January 23, 2018

Bitcoin has been non-volatile, trading with a bearish bias since it bounced off the $12,800 price area recently. Though the price is gradually going down recently, speculators are still quite optimistic about bitcoin and expect that the price will range between $8,000 to $12,000 price area for the medium term before showing any definite trend move in this cryptocurrency. The market seems like stabilizing itself though it is still losing some grounds. After the recent introduction of Bitcoin Futures, this is speculated to be the effect of it. As for the current scenario, price is expected to head lower towards $9,200 price area with the dynamic level which coincides with the trend line. The pullbacks along the way were quite minimal which led to non-volatile bearish pressure in the pair as well. As the price remains below $11,000 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for January 23, 2018

GBP/USD has recently broken above the 1.3950 resistance area with a daily close, while being in a non-volatile bullish trend where USD failed to put an impact for some retracement in the process. The UK has been doing quite well with economic reports despite political and Brexit headwinds. On the other hand, after the rate hike in December USD failed to retain the momentum it had earlier. Today, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing report was published with a positive result of a decrease to 1.0B from the previous figure of 6.6B which was expected to be at 4.2. The positive economic report helped the currency to regain its momentum it has lost throughout the day. Now GBP is expected to push further upwards in the coming days. On the other hand, ahead of the Advance GDP report from the US to be published on Friday, today Richmond Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight decrease to 19 from the previous figure of 20. The economic report will hardly have a serious impact on USD in the short term, whereas GBP seemed quite strong with more first-tier economic reports. As for the current scenario, GBP is expected to dominate USD further until the US comes up with any positive high impact economic reports in the coming days to halt the impulsive bullish momentum in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The trend has been non-volatile where the dynamic level of 20 EMA worked as a strong support to push the price higher after every retracement along the way. Recently the price rejected off the 1.3950 area with an intraday close which lead to further confirmation of the impulsive bullish pressure in the pair. As the price remains above 1.3850 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 1.4050 and later towards 1.4650 in the long run.

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Analysis of Gold for January 23, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,388.00. According to the 30M time – frame, I found potential bearish pennant pattern in creation, which is a sign of potential weakness. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see the breakout of the support trendline. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,332.00 and at the price of $1,320.79.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,336.92

R2: $1,339.90

R3: $1,344.40

Support levels:

S1: $1,329.70

S2: $1,325.44

S3: $1,322.44

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 23/01/2018

New highs, up trend continuation and more capitalization. This is how the situation in financial markets and the global economy looks like today. Great current data, historically high valuations of companies on the stock exchange, extreme optimism of investors and lack of serious threats on the horizon favor the emergence of bolder forecasts. In the January edition of World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised estimates of global GDP growth for 2018-19 by 0.2% up to 3.9% annually. The forecasts for major developed economies, especially for the USA, were revised upwards, where the IMF expects an acceleration of growth due to the recently approved tax cut. "The impact of the tax package on the level of production in the United States and the main US trading partners is responsible for about half of the cumulative revision of global growth forecasts for 2018-19" - noted in the report. The IMF estimates this impact at 1.2% by 2020. At the same time, it assumes a lower growth path for several years after 2022 due to the expected higher fiscal deficit and temporary character of some reform proposals.

The IMF states that the balance of risks for global short-term growth forecasts is broadly neutral, but points out that negative factors prevail in the medium term. "High valuations of assets and strongly reduced term bonuses increase the probability of a correction in the financial markets, which could limit growth and influence the moods" - emphasized the IMF. A possible catalyst for negative changes in the financial markets may be a faster-than-expected rise in core inflation and interest rates in developed economies.

Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 EFT) technical picture at the H4 time frame. The index has made a new all-time high at the level of 282.61 despite extremely overbought market conditions and growing bearish divergence. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 280.10.

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Global macro overview for 23/01/2018

The biggest volatility is being observed at AUD, which loses 0.5% The reason behind this behavior is the fall in prices of iron ore, which remains in Chinese ports without any chance to find a solution quickly. Raw material stocks increased 14 weeks in a row, as the supply of raw material does not slow down, while consumption is limping after the Chinese authorities imposed restrictions on steel production. Another headwind is the specter of US steel tariffs – President Trump now has the Commerce Department's Section 232 report and has 90 days to decide on recommended policy actions (the aluminum report will be released on Monday). AUD stays in close relation with iron ore prices and negative signals from the commodity market may hit the already-bought Aussie, which has been evidently struggling in recent days with maintaining over USD 0.80.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture in the H4 timeframe. As the iron ore price might be set to reverse the uptrend, so is the AUD/USD pair as it is currently trading at the channel support at the level of 0.7961. If AUD/USD fells out of the channel, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7934, but if we take a look at the momentum indicator, there is a reason to think the next key technical support is seen at the level of 0.7907.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for January 23, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite volatile recently showing both impulsive bullish and bearish pressure below 111.00 area. Today JPY BOJ Policy Rate report was published unchanged as expected at -0.10% whereas All Industry Activity report showed a significant increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.9%. Moreover, in BOJ Press Conference the upcoming policies for improving the economy has been quite remarkable leading to further gain on the JPY side today. On the other hand, ahead of the Advance GDP report to be published on Friday, Today USD Richmond Manufacturing Index report is going to be published with a decrease to 19 from the previous figure of 20. As of the current scenario, USD has been struggling to provide good impactful economic data for which JPY having mixed economic reports lead to further bearish pressure in the pair. This week USD does not have any highly impactful economic event or report to recover its gains whereas JPY is expected to create more bearish pressure in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing impulsive bearish pressure after an impulsive bullish pressure below 111.00 which made the market quite indecisive for few hours. The dynamic level of 20 EMA is expected to hold the price as resistance whereas the price remaining below 111.00 is expected to lead to further bearish pressure with the target towards 109.20 and later towards 108.50 support area in the coming days.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 23, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, the evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2150-1.2200 confirms a bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.

Otherwise, a bearish pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 23, 2018

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair is still gaining momentum. The bullish bias is confirmed by rallying towards 155.33 level recently. Besides, we will depend on 152.85 level, forming a good support base. Let me remind you that the first main target is located around 155.90, but further positive pressures might allow the price to reach the next target at 157.45. A stochastic's attempt to crawl towards the overbought areas also confirms the overall bullish trend. A new positive momentum eases attempts to reach the suggested targets. The expected trading range for today is between 153.50 and 155.90

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 23, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and probably 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement is expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).

S/L should be located above 0.7450. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.

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Daily analysis of Gold for January 23, 2018

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Overview

Gold price begins today's trading with a calm bullish bias after retesting the previously breached resistance of the bullish flag pattern. This price action supports our bullish outlook for the short term. We believe that the way is open to visit 1,357.50 that represents our next main target. Therefore, we are waiting for more rise today. Please note that breaching the mentioned level will extend price gains to reach 1,375.00 followed by 1,404.00, while holding above 1,321.40 represents the key condition to achieve the expected targets. The expected trading range for today is between 1,325.00 support and 1,350.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for January 23, 2018

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Overview

The tight range is setting the tone for trading silver. The metal is trading around 17.00 level. Please note that stochastic begins to overlap positively on the daily time frame. We are waiting until the price gains momenrum to resume the bullish trend. Targets are set by testing 17.43 level. Therefore, we are keeping the bullish outlook for the short term, provided that the price is holding above 16.55. Let me remind you that breaching the targeted level will push the price towards 18.30 as a next station. The expected trading range for today is between 16.85 support and 17.30 resistance.

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Brent is betting on demand

Optimistic forecasts of the IMF and the unwillingness of the US dollar to strengthen in response to the positive news about extending the US government's funding until February 8 allowed the bulls of Brent and WTI to return the initiative. Prior to this, the market was actively discussing the forecasts of the International Energy Agency and some speculators in the light of the potential growth in US production above 10 million bpd this year. They preferred to record profit on long positions.

IEA recalled the story of four years ago, when high prices for black gold increased the activity of shale producers in the States. This eventually resulted in the defeat of Brent and WTI. Alas, deja vu is unlikely to take place. And the reason for this is strong demand. According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, oil production in the US will increase by almost 1.4 million bpd to 10.4 million bpd, pushing the aggregate figure for non-OPEC countries to +1.7 million bpd. This is almost equivalent to +1.8 million bpd, indicated in the cartel agreement with other producing countries.

At the same time, global demand will increase by 1.3 million bpd and the IEA recognizes that this estimate is conservative compared with the forecasts of other organizations. They were +2 million bpd, which is twice the increase in 2014. Indeed, according to the IMF, the world economy in 2018-2019 will expand by 3.9%, which is 0.2 pp higher than in the previous assessments of the fund. It is ready to absorb current oil prices. At the same time, the reduction in global reserves speaks of a "bullish" conjuncture of the black gold market.

Dynamics of Brent, supply and demand of oil

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Source: Financial Times.

Brent and WTI support the alignment of forces in the States, which, according to the IEA, are the main threat to the current uptrend. Despite the rapid rally of oil, producers are in no hurry to increase production and US black gold reserves have been falling for several weeks in a row, reaching their lowest level since February 2015.

Dynamics of WTI and US oil reserves

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Source: Bloomberg.

The hand of speculators who are not going to leave the record net-long are playing the statements of Saudi Arabia and a weak dollar. Riyadh, through the words of its oil minister, said that OPEC should not limit its efforts to the current year. The cartel should talk about broader time horizons for cooperation. However, there are rumors in the market saying that the organization will arrange Brent at $ 60 per barrel. This is just the same because of the fear of a possible recurrence of history with American producers in 2014. The recent correlation between the US dollar and the North Sea black gold grade supports the desire of the "bulls" over the latter to once again try to take an important level of $ 70 per barrel by storm.

Technically, the update of the January maximum will increase the risks of implementing the target by 161.8% on the AB = CD pattern. While Brent quotes are above $ 66.95 per barrel (127.2% on AB = CD), the situation is controlled by buyers.

Brent, daily chart

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Bitcoin analysis for January 23, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $10.223. Hydro-Quebec, the largest state-owned utility in Canada, appears unable to meet the electricity demand from cryptocurrency miners seeking to establish operations in the energy-rich province. The announcement comes just weeks after the company sought to entice virtual currency miners as a means to bolster the province's economic outlook, claiming that it had 5,000 megawatts of power to spare. The technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found a broken bearish pennant pattern in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $9.249 and at the price of $8.183.

Support/Resistance

$10.938 – Intraday resistance

$9.964– Intraday support

$9.249 – Objective target 1

$8.183 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 23, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3948. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that price has broken the upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The pivot point at the price of 1.3945 got broken, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward tagets are set at the price of 1.3900 and at the price of 1.3816.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4033

R2: 1.4075

R3: 1.4167

Support levels:

S1: 1.3900

S2: 1.3815

S3: 1.3766

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 23/01/2018

Bitcoin is likely to cost over $ 50,000 in 2018, according to a mathematical study by Xoel Lopez Barat. A Spanish analyst and scientist have calculated that Bitcoin is expected to reach $ 55,530 by the end of this year. On the other hand, the probability that the largest cryptocurrency will be equal or less than at present is less than 10%.

Barata combines scientific assessments with a multitude of predictions of various types, using Monte Carlo simulations with so-called "random walks" to discover the potential of the future price of Bitcoin by developing raw data and probability options."It is important to remember that this kind of estimation is best used as a way to find confidence intervals - in this case, such a range for the Bitcoin price would be from $ 13,200 to $ 271,277." - Barata added.

Let's now take a look at Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is still trading below the weekly pivot at the level of $11,440, which might suggest another wave down towards the local low at the level of $9,196 or below. The key level to the upside remains still at the level of $12, 737 and only a sustained breakout above this level opens the road towards $14,861.

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Trading plan for 23/01/2018

Neither the Bank of Japan's decision nor the previous announcement of the end of the government shutdown in the US failed to break the currency market out of the sluggishness. Only AUD dropped significantly, which may be justified by declines in iron ore prices. The stock market is green, oil reflects on improving the outlook for global recovery.

On Tuesday 23rd of January, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Public Sector Net Borrowing data from the UK, ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany and Eurozone and Consumer Confidence data from the Eurozone.

USD/JPY analysis for 23/01/2018:

Overnight. the Bank of Japan left the policy parameters unchanged as expected. The market first focused on the passage in which it was written that "inflation expectations remain more or less unchanged", while previously they continued to "weaken". However, BoJ added that the price risks prevail on the negative side. What's more, BoJ did not raise inflation forecasts despite global trends and increases in oil prices - this is a dovish element of the statement. At the press conference, the president of BoJ Kuroda said that inflation in Japan is much lower than in Europe and the US, and there is no reason to change politics into less accommodative policy.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. In the initial reaction, USD/JPY slipped 35 pips to 110.55 but then bounced back to 111.00. Currently, the price is trading around the level of 110.70, which means it got back to the middle of the consolidation zone. Inability to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 111.48 suggest another leg down towards the level of 110.19. Weak momentum supports the bias.

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Market Snapshot: DAX at new highs

The price of German DAX index has opened at the new high at the level of 13,586. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 13,515 and it might be reached quickly due to the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator.

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Market Snapshot: GBP/USD hits the 161% Fibo

The price of GBP/USD has hit the level of 1.4003 which is just above the 161% Fibo at the level of 1.3964. Currently, the price is testing the nearest technical support at the level of 1.3944 in overbought market conditions. Moreover, the growing bearish divergence indicates another corrective wave down towards the level of 1.3856 if the support will not hold.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 23, 2018

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Overview :

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7290 (78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels). The pair rose from the level of 0.7290 to 0.7314. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7331 and 0.7355. However, the support levels are seen at 0.7290 and 0.7258. So, we expect the price to set above the strong support at the levels of0.7290 and 0.7258; because the price is in a bullish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7290 and 0.7331. In overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario as long as the price is above the level of 0.7309. Furthermore, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the top at 0.7331, the market will rise further to 0.7355. On the other hand, if the price closes below the strong support of 0.7258, the best location for a stop loss order is seen below 0.7258; hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.7236 to test it again. The level of 0.7236 will form a double bottom. Beriefly, the market is still calling for strong bullish market as long as the trensd is set above the price of 0.7236.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 23, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the zone of 0.9644 and 0.9600. The pair dropped from the level of 0.9644 to 0.9600. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9708 and 0.9759. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.9708 and 0.9759; because the price is in a bearish channel now. The RSI starts signaling a downward trend. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.9708 with the first target at 0.9593 and further to 0.9541 in order to test the daily support. If the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the double bottom at 0.9541, the market will decline further to 0.9481 to approach support 2 today. However, the price spot of 0.9708 and 0.9759 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.9759 is not breached
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for January 23, 2018

The Dollar index remains in a medium-term bearish trend with possible target 88.50-89. Recent price action, however, is neutral as the price is trading inside a trading range between 90 and 91.

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Black rectangle- resistance

Green rectangle - support

The Dollar index is still below the 4-hour cloud. The trend remains bearish. Support is at 90.20-90 and resistance is at 90.80-91. The most probable outcome would be to see a new low in the Dollar index over the coming sessions. Only a break above 91 could make me believe we have started a bigger upward correction.

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On a daily basis, the price is moving sideways well below both the tenkan- and the kijun-sen. The trend is clearly bearish. First important daily resistance is at 91.35 and next at 92.10. Only a break above 92.10 will increase dramatically the chances for a bigger bounce towards 93.50-94.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for January 23, 2018

The Gold price has respected support at $1,325-30 and is moving towards the $1,345 previous highs resistance. The trend remains bullish as the price is above the Ichimoku cloud.

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Red lines - bearish divergence sign

Short-term support is at $1,328 and resistance at $1,340. Price is trading above the Kumo (cloud) and has also crossed above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. As long as price holds above $1,328 trend will be in control by the bulls. Bulls do not want to see price break below $1,328-25.

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On a daily basis, Gold price remains above the Daily cloud support and above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. First important daily support by the tenkan-sen is at $1,330. A daily close below it will open the way for a move towards the daily kijun-sen which now is at $1,298. So far price respects support.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for January 23, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite indecisive this week having started with a Gap yesterday and bearish pressure sustaining along the way. The indecision on this pair is speculated due to neutral results of Euro group meeting and German Buba Monthly report which failed to provide enough evidence to gain over USD yesterday. On the Ahead of the EUR Minimum Bid Rate report to be published on Thursday this week, EUR seemed to have contained itself before an impulsive momentum. Though the Minimum Bid Rate report is expected to be unchanged at 0.0% this month following the Bid Rate report ECB Press Conference is expected to inject a good amount of volatility in the market. Today EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 29.7 from the previous figure of 29.0, Consumer Confidence is expected to be unchanged at 1 and ECOFIN Meeting is also expected to neutral having a little or no impact on the EUR gains today. On the other hand, ahead of the Advance GDP report to be published on Friday, USD does not have any impactful economic event or report to provide strong momentum in the market. Today USD Richmond Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 19 from the previous figure of 20. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to lose more grounds but EUR also does not have any impactful economic report or events on its side to favor its gains. As a result, we might observe a good amount volatility and consolidation this week whereas a weekly close may lead to a definite trend outcome this week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is still quite bearish as of the current price action momentum whereas USD is expected to push the price lower towards 1.2050-1.2100 support area from where we might see some bullish momentum to carry on with the trend. As the price remains below 1.2300 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 23, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Consumer Confidence, ZEW Economic Sentiment, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2327.

Strong Resistance:1.2320.

Original Resistance: 1.2308.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2296.

Target Inner Area: 1.2267.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2238.

Original Support: 1.2226.

Strong Support: 1.2214.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2207.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 23, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Outlook Report, Monetary Policy Statement data, and the US will release the Economic Data such as Richmond Manufacturing Index. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.49.

Resistance. 2: 111.27.

Resistance. 1: 111.05.

Support. 1: 110.79.

Support. 2: 110.57.

Support. 3: 110.35.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 23, 2018

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Wave summary:

We have seen the expected spike lower to 1.6679 (the low has been seen at 1.6684). This fulfills the corrective target in wave ii and a break above minor resistance at 1.6772 will confirm that wave ii is complete and wave iii has taken over for a rally towards 1.7360 on the way higher to 1.7777.

As long as minor resistance at 1.6772 is able to cap the upside, we could still see a final spike to or just below 1.6679, but it's not necessary.

R3: 1.6850

R2: 1.6809

R1: 1.6772

Pivot: 1.6713

S1: 1.6684

S2: 1.6679

S3: 1.6662

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6695 and will place our stop at 1.6550.

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AUD/USD continues to test major resistance, remain bearish

The price continues to test major resistance at 0.8018 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, bearish divergence) and we expect a drop from this level to push the price down to at least 0.7817 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees ascending support as more intermediate support and only a break of this level would trigger a very bearish move. We can also see bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 0.8018. Stop loss at 0.8116. Take profit at 0.7817.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached once again perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has bounced perfectly from our buying level and reached our profit target once again. We prepare to sell from 89.18 major resistance (Fibonacci extension, above major swing high resistance) for a reaction off this level to push the price down to at least 88.68 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 98% where we expect a strong corresponding reaction from.

Sell below 89.18. Stop loss at 89.43. Take profit at 88.68.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 23, 2018

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Wave summary:

Despite another run close to the top at 136.31 we remain firm in our belief that this rally is corrective and a new decline below 135.00 soon will be seen, confirming our expectation for a decline close 131.11 and longer term a much deeper corrective decline towards 123.43 in wave (E) of the huge triangle consolidation, which has been unfolding since July 2008.

R3: 136.64

R2: 136.31

R1: 136.03

Pivot: 135.55

S1: 135.00

S2: 134.78

S3: 134.37

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 134.75 with stop placed at 136.75

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 23, 2018

EUR/USD: This pair consolidated on Monday, neither going above the resistance line at 1.2300 (which was tested unsuccessfully), nor going below the support line at 1.2150. This week, there is going to be a directional movement, which would most probably favor bears, for the outlook on EUR pair is bearish for this week.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument did not do anything significant on January 22, but a rise in momentum is expected. The demand level at 0.9550 would try to impede further bearish movement, and price could go upwards to reach the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair trended strongly on Monday, moving upwards by 130 pips. There is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, since price has moved upwards by 500 pips since January 11, 2018. The market can still go upwards by additional 200 pips this week, before there can be a serious pullback.

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USD/JPY: This market made a shallow bullish effort yesterday (which it also made last week). All the bullish effort has been in the context of a downtrend and that may offer an opportunity to enter the market at better prices. This week, the demand level at 110.50 could be breached to the upside, and one of the reasons is because of the expected weakness in USD.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross went north yesterday, moving above the demand zone at 136.00. The bias on the market is bullish, and price may go further upwards from here, leading to a stronger bullish outlook on the EUR/JPY pair. The next targets are the supply zones at 136.00, 136.50, and 137.00.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for January 23, 2018

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Technical outlook:

A 4H chart view has been presented for EUR/USD to have a closer look at wave (5), unfolding into its final waves 4 and 5 before terminating. High probable wave count suggests that wave (5) is unfolding as an ending diagonal and is looking to terminate into 4th wave corrective drop towards 1.2060/70 levels or 1.1950 levels respectively. We shall follow the waves closely by selling on rallies for now and then turn bullish for the last leg rally. Initial price support is seen through the 1.1900 handle, also accompanied by an intermediate trend line support as depicted here. At present, the pair is consolidating and intraday rallies should be seen as opportunities to go short. Interim resistance is seen at 1.2323 for now and ideally prices should stay below that. We shall take a close review of price action around the 1.2060 mark to take further directional trade.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for now, stop above 1.2323, target 1.2060 levels at least.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

A 4H chart view has been presented here for the US Dollar Index to have a closer look as wave (5) unfolds lower. It seems as an ending diagonal structure unfolding since the 95.10 levels and the index is about to produce a counter trend rally towards wave 4 before collapsing one last time through wave 5 lower. Please note that interim price resistance is seen at 92.60/70 levels and the wave 4 termination point could also be the same. According to the fibonacci extensions, 91.50 level is also a strong probable for wave 4 termination. We shall remain long and buy on intraday dips in anticipation of a wave 4 rally before turning lower towards the 5th wave drop. Any push significantly above the 92.70 resistance will indicate that a meaningful bottom is in place and that the USD Index is set to stage an impressive rally ahead.

Trading plan:

Please remain long for now, stop at 90.00 targeting 91.50 and 92.70.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 23, 2018

The index is still holding the lows from January 19th and it seems we could expect a rally to test the 200 SMA on H1 chart. The downside continues to be the dominant bias and a moving average could act as a strong dynamic resistance. The nearest support lies at the 89.36 level, where bears could gain traction to continue lower.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 91.75 / 92.57

H1 chart's support levels: 90.59 / 89.36

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 90.59, take profit is at 89.36 and stop loss is at 91.81.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 23, 2018

GBP/USD started the week within a neutral tone that is favored by the bulls in the short term. The next target to the upside lies at 1.3979, where a breakout should expose the critical level at 1.4112. The support zone of 1.3847 still holds as a solid barrier to contain the bearish price action but if it gives up, then the next leg lower could go towards the 200 SMA on H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3979 / 1.4112

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3847 / 1.3612

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3979, take profit is at 1.4112 and stop loss is at 1.3847.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 22, 2018

Bitcoin bearish pressure has been quite strong recently leading the price to reside below $11,000 currently after the recent bounce towards $12,000. The market speculated to settle down for the Korean Regulation issue as the price remains above $11,000. However, as the price is still moving lower, the bullish bias is likely to be negated. The investors and traders are still quite uncertain about the future of bitcoin but there is a certain segment of market participants who are optimistic about bitcoin prospects. As for the current scenario, price is expected to head towards $9,000 price area again but this time the pressure is quite impulsive which can lead to break below the price area leading to further bearish pressure in the cryptocurrency. As the price remains below $11,000 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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