Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on July 1, 2020

Good day, dear traders!

Yesterday, the final GDP data for the first quarter came from the UK, which was weaker than expected and disappointed market participants. Let me remind you that the British GDP fell by 2.2%, although forecasts suggested a fall of only 2%.

But the promises of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to rescue the country's economy from the crisis in which it fell due to COVID-19, were received by investors with optimism. The British Prime Minister paid special attention to the construction sector, calling for the cost of as many schools, colleges, and hospitals as possible. Let me remind you that earlier we announced the launch of a large-scale infrastructure program for economic recovery after the coronavirus and to facilitate the development of the private property.

From today's events that can affect the price dynamics of GBP/USD, it is worth highlighting the UK manufacturing activity index PMI, which will be published at 09:30 (London time), as well as the Fed minutes, which will be released at 19:00 (London time).

Monthly

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Given that June was closed yesterday, it is impossible to ignore the monthly chart of the pound/dollar currency pair. Here, the first thing that catches the eye is the huge upper shadow of the June candle. As you can see, after reaching highs at 1.2811, the pair lost almost all of its growth and ended last month's trading at 1.2397. Bulls on the pound did not even manage to close June above the important technical level of 1.2400, which previously served as a support function.

It is also worth paying attention to the fact that the trading of the first summer month ended under the Kijun and Tenkan lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which played a significant role in the formation of such a candle. As a rule, after such models of candle analysis, it is difficult to count on the predominance of bullish sentiment. No, of course, there will be rises during this month, but only the confident closing of the current month above 1.2811 will finally confirm the bullish mood for the pound. This is not an easy task. A breakdown of support at 1.2250 looks most likely. If this happens, the pair risks falling to 1.2070.

Daily

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But on the daily chart, at this stage of time, it is not necessary to exclude the ascending scenario at all. The bears' attempts to drive the price within the cloud of the Ichimoku indicator failed again, and pushing off from the upper border of the cloud, the pair rose and closed Monday's trading above the previous highs of 1.2388. In this regard, I do not rule out that the quote will continue to grow today. However, at the moment of completion of the article, the Tenkan line provides strong resistance to attempts to continue moving in the north direction. The pair is trading lower, near 1.2374.

H1

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On the hourly chart, we see a rather curious picture. After the fall of 1.2535-1.2251, the quote was corrected to the middle of the indicated fall and then rolled back down. From further decline, the GBP/USD was held by 89 exponential (black) and have found support here, the exchange rate began to strengthen again.

For trading ideas, you should pay attention to the possibility of positioning in both directions. Although, given yesterday's bullish candle and its closing price, I will give the greatest preference to purchases. You can try opening long positions on GBP/USD from the current prices (1.2377) or after breaking the important level of 1.2400, fixing above, on a rollback to this mark.

At the same time, I do not rule out successful sales if bearish candlestick signals appear on the four-hour and (or) hourly charts in the price zone of 1.2388-1.2400. In conclusion, I would like to remind you once again about the publication of the FOMC minutes at 19:00 (London time). The publication of this document will likely have a significant impact on the price dynamics of the US dollar in general and this currency pair in particular.

Good luck with trading!

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Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 1

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 1

EUR / USD

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The maximum optimism for the players to decline at the close of June was not reached. And although the rebound from the medium-term trend tested last month (1.1360) retained its initial potential, since the upper shadow of the monthly candle is quite long, the downward players failed to solve the problem with the accumulation of levels of attraction and supports. With the opening of the new calendar month, there have been changes in the location of the monthly levels of Ichimoku. Today, the concentration of significant levels can be identified at the following lines: 1.1225-60 (daily Tenkan + upper border of the weekly cloud + monthly Kijun). This zone continues to exert current attraction and inhibits the development of the situation. For players to rise, the line of 1.1225-60 is very important, because as they consolidate above, they will be able to secure a day weekly long-term and monthly medium-term support, all of which together preserves the chances of leaving the zone of downward correction in the daily and weekly half-time. It should be noted that the monthly Fibo Kijun in July is located at 1.1389. As a result, the exit from the correction zones coincides with the liquidation of the monthly dead cross. Breaking through 1.1225-60 and 1.1389-1.1422 are the nearest prospects and primary tasks for players to increase for the month of July. For players to decline, the strengthening and development of potential in July is associated with breaking through 1.1167-78 (daily Kijun + weekly Fibo Kijun) and 1.1065-1.1100 (lower boundary of the weekly cloud + weekly cross + monthly levels). In the event of a reliable consolidation below, the rebound outlined in June may receive confirmation and opportunities for implementation.

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At the moment, support for the analyzed technical instruments on H1 remains on the players to decline. The downward trends within the day are the support of the classic Pivot levels 1.1195 - 1.1158 - 1.1124. Changes in the current balance of power are located as close as possible to 1.1229-38 (central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend) and are being actively tested. A consolidation above will open up new opportunities and prospects for players to increase. Inside the day, they can be the resistance of the classic Pivot levels 1.1266 - 1.1300 - 1.1337.

GBP / USD

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Yesterday showed how much one day can mean when evaluating work per month. Players to increase did not allow the opponent to achieve a convincing advantage. As a result, the June candle, although it has a bearish background and character, still stood on a par with the previous candles and, to a large extent, thanks to the efforts of the bulls yesterday, acquired their uncertainty. It can be concluded that in July the confrontation will continue and there is no clear leader yet. The following lines of 1.2440-60 (weekly Tenkan + monthly cross) - 1.2500-38-80 (weekly Fibo Kijun + final lines of the daily dead cross) - 1.2711-35 (line will be important for players to increase in July) allowing you to eliminate the monthly dead cross and enter the weekly cloud). The nearest bearish reference points for the lower players are located at 1.2312 - 1.2288 (weekly Kijun + daily cloud) - 1.2214 (monthly Fibo Kijun) - 1.2099 (weekly Fibo Kijun).

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At lower time intervals, the players to increase may gain the technical advantage of 1.2351-75 (central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend) soon. The reversal of the moving will further strengthen the bullish sentiment. The resistance within the day can be noted at 1.2445 - 1.2493 - 1.2587. The loss of key levels (1.2351-75) will return relevance to the support, which is located at 1.2303 (S1) - 1.2209 (S2) - 1.2161 (S3) today.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on July 1, 2020

Hello, dear colleagues!

So, yesterday the market closed the first summer month, however, before we go to the analysis of price charts, let's briefly talk about the fundamental background. Preliminary data on the consumer price index in the Eurozone exceeded economists' forecasts of 0.1% and came out at 0.3%. At the same time, the base value of the index met expectations and amounted to 0.8%. As for American statistics, the consumer confidence indicator grew more than expected 91.8 and amounted to 98.1. The main emphasis in his speech yesterday in a six-month report to the House of Representatives, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell made on lending to small and medium-sized businesses. According to the head of the Federal Reserve, an unprecedented lending program will allow in the coming months to increase economic activity and reduce the losses that firms suffer as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As for colleagues from the ECB, they do not exclude the possibility of adjusting previously adopted anti-crisis programs to counter COVID-19, but much will depend on the ability of global markets to adapt to the slow and gradual economic recovery in Europe.

Today, on the first day of July, Germany will report on retail sales and publish data on the labor market. However, it seems that the most important event will be the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which will take place at 19:00 London time.

Monthly

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During the first month of summer, the main currency pair of the Forex market ended with growth, closing June trading at 1.1233. However, this does not mean that the strengthening of the exchange rate will continue. The main reason for such doubts is the very long upper shadow of the candle that closed yesterday. Usually, when the upper shadow is larger than the body itself, this is perceived as a negative signal and the weakness of the players to increase, who were unable to keep the price near the reached highs.

It is also worth paying attention to the strong resistance provided by the 50 simple moving average and the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator. And the maximum values of June trading at 1.1422 still look unattainable, the rebound down from this level was too strong. Now, to confirm the seriousness of their intentions, the EUR/USD bulls need to break through the resistance of sellers at 1.1422 and close the July trades above this level. At this stage, this task looks very difficult, and, given the long upper shadow of the last candle, the descending scenario gains more chances for its implementation. In my opinion, the breakdown of the Tenkan line (1.1065) and the closing of July trading under this line will finally indicate the superiority of the bears.

Daily

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At yesterday's trading, the pair showed multidirectional movements, which is not surprising given the month's closing. The pair were not allowed to go up again by the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which looks like a kind of barrier and does not allow the price to go higher.

However, before this, the quote showed a decline and fell to the level of 1.1190. By the way, this mark was indicated in yesterday's review as the nearest reduction target and the level from which you can try to buy. As you can see, the pair did not fail and everything was clearly and accurately worked out. Here is just an idea of the future direction of the euro/dollar.

H1

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At the hourly chart, as expected, the moving averages used (89 EMA, 50 MA, and 200 EMA) blocked the pair's path in the north direction. At the end of the review, the euro/dollar pair is strengthening and it is highly likely to test the moving averages again for a breakout. And along with them, the resistance line drawn at points 1.1348-1.1287.

The main trading recommendation for EUR/USD today is sales from the price zone of 1.1235-1.1255, and confirmation for opening short positions will be the appearance of bearish candle signals in the selected zone.

Good luck and big profits!

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Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on July 1st

Forecast for July 1:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1289, 1.1254, 1.1232, 1.1183, 1.1154, 1.1132, 1.1071 and 1.1029. Here, we are following the formation of the descending structure of June 23. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1183. In this case, the goal is 1.1154. The price passing the noise range 1.1154 - 1.1132 will lead to the development of a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1071. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1029. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1254 - 1.1289. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.1349. We expect the initial conditions for the top to be formed to this level.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of June 23, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1255 Take profit: 1.1287

Buy: 1.1292 Take profit: 1.1346

Sell: 1.1183 Take profit: 1.1155

Sell: 1.1130 Take profit: 1.1080

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2597, 1.2547, 1.2508, 1.2456, 1.2413, 1.2349, 1.2311, 1.2259, 1.2208, 1.2180 and 1.2118. Here, the price is in correction from the downward structure and forms the potential for the top of June 30. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2413 - 1.2456. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2508. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2508 - 1.2547. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2597. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2349 - 1.2311. The breakdown of the last level will have the subsequent development of a downward trend of June 24. In this case, the first target is 1.2259. Price consolidation is near this level. The price passing this level will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2208. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2208 - 1.2180. We consider the level of 1.2118 to be a potential value for the bottom.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 24, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2413 Take profit: 1.2455

Buy: 1.2457 Take profit: 1.2508

Sell: 1.2349 Take profit: 1.2312

Sell: 1.2309 Take profit: 1.2260

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9610, 0.9588, 0.9556, 0.9529, 0.9503, 0.9459, 0.9440 and 0.9419. Here, we determined the subsequent goals for the top from the local initial conditions on June 29. At the moment, the price is close to canceling this structure, for which a breakdown of the level of 0.9459 is necessary. Here, the first goal is 0.9440. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9419. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation.

The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9503. In this case, the first target is 0.9529. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow you to count on movement to the level of 0.9556. Price consolidation is near this level. A pronounced upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9556. Here, the potential target is 0.9610. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9588 - 0.9610 and hence, there is a high probability of a downward reversal.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of June 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9503 Take profit: 0.9529

Buy : 0.9531 Take profit: 0.9555

Sell: 0.9457 Take profit: 0.9441

Sell: 0.9438 Take profit: 0.9420

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.86, 108.45, 108.28, 107.95, 107.57, 107.37 and 107.01. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of June 23. C The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.95. In this case, the target is 108.28. Price consolidation is in the range of 108.28 - 108.45. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.86. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 107.57 - 107.37. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 107.01. This is the key support level for the top.

Main trend: upward cycle of June 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.95 Take profit: 108.28

Buy : 108.47 Take profit: 108.86

Sell: 107.55 Take profit: 107.38

Sell: 107.35 Take profit: 107.05

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3813, 1.3766, 1.3709, 1.3638, 1.3566, 1.3526 and 1.3487. Here, the price is in deep correction of June 23. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3566 - 1.3526. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure and here, the first goal is 1.3487.

The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3636. In this case, the first target is 1.3709. The breakdown of which, in turn, should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 1.3766. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3813. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

The main trend is the formation of the upward potential of June 23, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3638 Take profit: 1.3707

Buy : 1.3711 Take profit: 1.3765

Sell: 1.3564 Take profit: 1.3528

Sell: 1.3524 Take profit: 1.3488

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For the Australian dollar / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7031, 0.6986, 0.6967, 0.6944, 0.6909, 0.6841, 0.6809 and 0.6757. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. The resumption of the development of the downward trend, possibly after the breakdown of 0.6840, here the first goal is 0.6809, the breakdown of which should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement, here the potential target is -0.6757.

The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6909. In this case, the first target is 0.6944. The breakdown of which will lead to movement to the level of 0.6967. The price passing the noise range 0.6967 - 0.6986 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7031. Price consolidation is near this level.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6942

Buy: 0.6945 Take profit: 0.6967

Sell : 0.6840 Take profit : 0.6810

Sell: 0.6807 Take profit: 0.6760

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 122.47, 121.87, 121.66, 121.29, 120.64, 120.35, 120.12 and 119.74. Here, we are following the ascendant structure of June 26th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.29. In this case, the goal is 121.66. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.66 - 121.87. The price passing the noise range of 121.66 - 121.87 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 122.47. Upon reaching this value, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 120.64 - 120.35. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper movement. Here, the goal is 120.12. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the local upward structure of June 26

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.30 Take profit: 121.66

Buy: 121.90 Take profit: 122.45

Sell: 120.64 Take profit: 120.37

Sell: 120.35 Take profit: 120.14

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 135.98, 135.48, 134.68, 134.06, 132.88, 132.41 and 131.92. Here, the price forms a pronounced upside potential of June 29th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 134.06. In this case, the target is 134.68. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 134.68. In this case, the target is 135.48. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 135.98. We expect consolidation near which, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 132.88 - 132.41. The breakdown of the latter will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of June 29. In this case, the target is 131.92.

The main trend is building potential for the top of June 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.06 Take profit: 134.66

Buy: 134.70 Take profit: 135.46

Sell: 132.88 Take profit: 132.43

Sell: 132.39 Take profit: 131.92

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USD Index Price Movement For July 01, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we spotted the Divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator and the USD index price. Based on this information, we see a potential for the #USDX to go down for testing the 97.11 level as long as USDX does not go up and closes above 97.50. Then, the 97.11 will still remain the prime target for the USD Index.

(Disclaimer)

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Dow Jones Industrial Avarage Price Movement For July 01, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we see that the #INDU has a potential to continue its upward movement to raid 26,573.9. The Stochastic Oscillator is already at the overbought level, although the index has formed a divergence too. The price has already closed above the Moving Average. Based on this fact, #INDU is going up soon as long as the price does not retrace downwards to close below 24,886.8.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 1, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The British Financial Supervision Authority (FCA) estimates that around 2.6 million British consumers "bought cryptocurrencies" at some point.

FCA has published the results of its latest research on consumer interaction with cryptocurrency markets in the UK. 1.9 million people - 3.86% of the general adult population - were found to currently have cryptocurrencies, which is considered a "statistically significant increase," compared to 3% in the latest FCA consumer survey report in 2019. This increase increases overall the number of consumers in the UK who have ever owned cryptocurrencies at any time, from 1.5 million to the current estimated number of 2.6 million.

In addition to the marked increase in the number of cryptocurrency owners, industry awareness also seems to be growing - 73% of adults have heard about cryptocurrencies, compared with 42% last year.

FCA research indicates that 75% of 1.9 million currently have cryptocurrencies worth less than $ 1,229. 83% of cryptocurrency owners buy their assets through stock exchanges outside the UK.

In general, the level of technical knowledge of holders and understanding of the potential risks associated with a lack of collateral and asset volatility is high, FCA reports. One exception is that 11% of current and former cryptocurrency owners mistakenly believe that their cryptographic assets are covered by consumer protection - approximately 300,000 people.

The FCA believes that this exposes consumers to financial harm. At the same time, however, he states that the most popular reason consumers in the UK bought crypto was "as a gamble to earn or lose money" with full awareness of the volatility of crypto markets.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has retraced 38% of the last wave down and made a new local high at the level of $229. Nevertheless, the is a Doji candlestick pattern made at the top ot the move, which indicates a possible reversal of the local up trend. For now, the market keeps consolidating in a narrow range, but if the intraday support located at the level of $221.31 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $209.89.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $273.84

WR2 - $260.74

WR1 - $240.04

Weekly Pivot - $227.40

WS1 - $206.35

WS2 - $194.36

WS3 - $173.30

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Control zones for AUD/USD on July 1, 2020

A medium-term accumulation zone was formed in the trading chart this June, so traders can use the weekly and monthly highs to search for good entry and consolidation points in the market. The upward movement that occurred yesterday pushed the quote near the defining resistance area of the WCZ 1/2 0.6933-0.6924, a test of which will indicate the next priority for the market.

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But for now, shorting the pair remains to be the priority, as the weekly control zone 0.6796-0.6778 has not yet been reached.

An alternative scenario may occur, if the quote closes today above the WCZ 1/2. It will form an upward reversal pattern, which will continue the medium-term bullish impulse in the chart. The first target for the increase will be the weekly control zone 0.7032-0.7014. However, keep in mind that buy positions from the current levels are not profitable, as the test of the WCZ 1/2 can lead to a strong fall of the AUD / USD pair.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 1, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Anxiety in the cryptocurrency community is growing every day. No change in Bitcoin prices, trade between $ 9,000 to $ 9,500, for almost two months is currently not perceived as a feature of the strongest cryptocurrency in the world, but rather its relationship with larger financial markets.

Bitcoin, for most of this year, when the pandemic began shifting markets, acted against itself. According to the "uncorrelated" status, the cryptocurrency reached enormous highs when both the stock market and the commodity market collapsed, losing millions. This is despite the fact that Bitcoin lost over 50% of its value in one day in March and increased its supply by 50% in May.

However, now that price and supply have normalized, the unstable asset is stable from the outset, and some cryptocurrency community members suggest that the reason is that it has not yet separated from the stock market.

Bitcoins and the larger cryptocurrency market, despite being called 'decentralized', have often exerted an impact on macroeconomic activities, usually affecting traditional markets. Last year, Bitcoin saw movement in the gold market on various isolated occasions, mainly because of the safe harbor narrative in times of economic or political turmoil.

Now the prices on the stock market offset the negative effects of the slowdown of global economies by a pandemic and the inflow of liquidity from central banks. At this time, Bitcoin is actually moving according to the highest stock index, S & P500. Market data indicate that the 1-month correlation of Bitcoins with S & P500 is the highest in over a year, and is currently estimated at over 42.6%

Because Bitcoin is "coupled" with S & P500, this presents a different set of short-term fate for cryptocurrency in the future. Given the likelihood of a second package of government assistance in the United States, another injection of freshly minted dollars may again positively affect Bitcoin, as it did in May. Another scenario is the second wave of COVID-19 cases that could cause another liquidation madness.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $9,129, but there is a Doji candlestick pattern made at the top of this move, so if the intraday support located at the level of $8,971 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high. The momentum is still weak and negative, but is getting closer to the level of fifty, which is a neutral level for the momentum indicator. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565, but in a case of an upside breakout, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,249 (technical resistance level).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,465

WR2 - $10,072

WR1 - $9,509

Weekly Pivot - $9,126

WS1 - $8,593

WS2 - $8,191

WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 1, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a local high at the level of 1.1287 before the Bearish Engulfing pattern had been made. For now, the market is consolidating in a narrow range between the levels of 1.1215 - 1.1251, but the bearish pressure is still present on chart, so if bulls will not violate the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.1282-1.1290, then the swing top located at 1.1419 will not be hit. On the other hand, any violation of the level of 1.1236 makes the rally towards the swing low located at the level of 1.1168 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the overbought market conditions and weak momentum support the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1484

WR2 - 1.1410

WR1 - 1.1289

Weekly Pivot - 1.1235

WS1 - 1.1124

WS2 - 1.1056

WS3 - 1.0936

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 1 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Boris Johnson's speech provided temporary

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, a statement by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his proposed £5 billion aid plan supported the pound, but this does not eliminate the problems with Brexit and most likely the growth will be temporary. Two signals were formed to buy the pound yesterday, and one to sell. Let's analyze them in more detail. If you look at the 5-minute chart and remember my review for the afternoon, you will see how the bulls formed a false breakout of support at 1.2256, which is where the pair's first rapid growth occurred. The second buy signal was a break and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2321. But I recommended selling the pound only for a rebound from resistance of 1.2386, the test of which led to a slight downward movement of the pound to close the day. Currently, the buyers' task is to return the pair to resistance 1.2386, which will be a clear signal for the GBP/USD pair to grow to a high of 1.2451 in the short term. Good data on manufacturing activity in the UK is likely to lead to another wave of growth in the pair with the entry into a new area of 1.2528, where I recommend taking profits. Pressure on the pound could increase in case bulls are not active in the region of 1.2386. Therefore, when the pair decreases, it is best to wait until a false breakout forms in the support area of 1.2321 and buy from there. Moreover, there are moving averages. I recommend doing long positions immediately for a rebound from weekly lows in the area of 1.2256, counting on a correction of 30-40 points by the end of the day. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 23 recorded another growth in short positions, which reflects the market situation. Short non-commercial positions increased from 45.376 to 48,170 during the week. At that time, long non-commercial positions increased from 29,379 to 29,654. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased its negative value and reached -18 516, versus -15,998, which indicates preserving pressure in the market after an unsuccessful attempt by the bulls to reverse the downward trend.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers should not postpone their return to the market, since yesterday's attempt at a reversal could turn out to be very bad for them by the end of the week. A false breakout of the level of 1.2386 this morning on the data on manufacturing activity in the UK will be a good signal to open short positions while expecting a return to support 1.2321. However, consolidating below this level will return the bearish momentum to the market, which will lead to the renewal and a breakout of the week's low at 1.2256, which opens a direct path to the area of 1.2185, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls continue to push GBP/USD, then it is best to count on short positions after updating the high at 1.2451, or sell the pound immediately on the rebound from resistance 1.2528, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates another attempt by the bulls to return to the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Pound growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2451. Pressure on the pound will be kept in the area of the lower border of the indicator 1.2260.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 1 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Euro buyers have repulsed the bears, but

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Data in the afternoon on consumer confidence in the US led to a sharp increase in the euro, which indicates the willingness of investors to take risks, if only there was a reason for this, because lately, there has been less and less good news. If you look at the 5-minute chart and remember my forecast yesterday, you will see how the bulls once again formed a false breakout in the support area of 1.1197 and began to push the pair up at the beginning of the US trading, which led to a sharp increase in the euro above the resistance of 1.1236, however it was not possible to achieve a larger upward trend. At the moment, the buyers' task is to return the resistance of 1.1241 to themselves and consolidate on it, which will be a signal to open long positions in the hope of continuing to strengthen the pair to the week's high in the area of 1.1286, where I recommend taking profits. Further upward correction will entirely depend on data on production activity in the eurozone countries and only a breakthrough of the level of 1.1286 will form an upward trend in EUR/USD, capable of updating the highs of 1.1325 and 1.1381 by the end of the week. If the pressure on the euro continues in the morning, it is best to wait for the next decline and a false breakout to form in the weekly low of 1.1193. If there is no activity there, I advise postponing long positions until the test of the area of 1.1155, or even better, buy EUR/USD immediately to rebound from a low of 1.1106, counting on a correction of 25-30 points within the day, since these transactions will go against the trend. Let me remind you that there are some changes that could affect the growth prospects of the European currency in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 23. The growth of long positions was recorded a week earlier, but the growth of short ones was also noted, which indicates a possible slowdown of the bullish momentum in the short term. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from 69,988 to 72,368, while long non-commercial positions also slightly increased from 187,120 to 190,816. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position grew again and reached 118,448, against 117,132, which indicates a slight slowdown in the growth of interest in purchases of risky assets at current prices.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Euro sellers will wait for weak data on manufacturing activity in Germany and the eurozone and return to the market only after forming a false breakout in the resistance zone of 1.1241, which is a kind of middle of this week's side channel. Such a scenario will cause EUR/USD to fall towards the low of 1.1193, the next test of which will increase the pressure on the euro and bring the pair to the lows of 1.1155 and 1.1106, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears are not active in the 1.1241 area, it is best to postpone short positions until the upper border of the channel of 1.1286 is updated, however, larger players will return to the market from a high of 1.1325, a test of which can lead to a downward correction of EUR/USD of 25-30 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the equal strength of buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.1193 will increase pressure on the euro. You can count on an upward correction after a breakout of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1250.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD for July 01, 2020

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Technical outlook:

EUR/USD had reached 1.1422 levels before pulling back. The single currency pair is trading around 1.1236 at this point in writing and is expected to drop lower towards 1.1012 and further in the next few trading sessions. Please note that EURO has broken below the immediate trend line support and is facing resistance around 1.1260 mark. A drop below 1.1167 would set the ball rolling lower again and bears would remain in control thereafter. Also note that the outer trend line is passing through 1.0900 level so there is enough room for a continued drop. Further. EUR/USD has reversed from the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of drop between 1.1422 and 1.1167 around 1.1348. Trading point of view, EUR/USD should be sold with risk at 1.1350.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 1.1350, target @ 1.1000 and lower.

Good luck!

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 1, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the GBP/USD pair has made a local low at the level of 1.2251 after all the bounces were too shallow to trigger a strong rally. Nevertheless, the price has temporary broken out the descending channel and tested the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.2362. Despite the bounce from the oversold market conditions, the momentum remains weak and negative as the RSI indicator hovers below its fifty level. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2406. The larger time frame trend remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2667

WR2 - 1.2600

WR1 - 1.2441

Weekly Pivot - 1.2377

WS1 - 1.2213

WS2 - 1.2143

WS3 - 1.1969

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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AUDJPY facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 74.68

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit :74.15

Reason for Take Profit: 38 fib retracement

Stop Loss:75.03

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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Control zones for GBPUSD on 07/01/20

An absorption pattern formed at the daily level yesterday. This can be a springboard for further growth in the second half of the week. Favorable prices for purchasing can be found at the level where European trading closed at yesterday. The growth target is WCZ 1/2 1.2488-1.2467, the test of which will determine the further priority.

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The probability of holding the price within the limits of yesterday's daily growth and retest of yesterday's high is 75%.

To cancel the upward model, it will be necessary to form the absorption pattern of yesterday's daily candle. If this happens, then sales will come to the fore again, and the first target for the fall will be WCZ 1/2 1.2121-1.2100, which coincides with the weekly average move zone.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 1, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro traded in the range of 72 points on Tuesday, having reached both target levels - upper and lower - 1.1195, 1.1265. Traditionally, a wide-range day with a relatively small close (-7 points) is a sign of the upcoming strong movement. Data on employment and retail sales in Germany, US private sector employment, US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June (forecast 49.5 versus 49.6 in May) will be released today, there are enough reasons to start a new one to two-week movement.

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The Marlin Oscillator continues to decline in the area of negative values on the daily chart. Moving the price below the level of 1.1195 will open the way to the first goal of 1.1103 - to support the trend line of the price channel of the monthly timeframe.

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The price is currently above the MACD line (blue indicator) on the four-hour chart, but below the balance line (red indicator), Marlin is in the decline zone, the price can return to the MACD line and resume the downward movement.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 1, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling slightly fell short of its first goal of 1.2230 as the junction between the Fibonacci level of 161.8% and the MACD line on the daily chart. The price went above the balance indicator line, which indicates the potential for the market to grow even higher, an attempt to overcome the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. Success can bring the price to the Fibonacci line 123.6% at the price of 1.2540. The weak point of this scenario is the Marlin oscillator; it has not yet shown its intention to enter the growth zone.

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The price stopped growing at the resistance of the MACD line on the H4 chart. The Marlin oscillator in the growth zone. The price exit above the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.2424) will be the first condition for further growth to the target of 1.2540. A price fall below the signal level of 1.2335 (June 22 low) will become a condition and a signal to move up to 1.2230.

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USDCAD bounce in progress towards descending trendline resistance!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.35809

Reason for Entry: Moving average resistance, Ascending trendline resistance.

Take Profit: 1.34968

Reason for Take Profit:161.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.36153

Reason for Stop Loss: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

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GBP/USD facing bearish pressure from descending trend line

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.24425

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance, 78.6% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.22637

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal overlap support, 76.4% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.25461

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD facing bearish pressure from descending trend line

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.24425

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance, 78.6% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.22637

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal overlap support, 76.4% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.25461

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on July 1, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar grew by 36 points as a result of yesterday's trade, which was based on the growth of commodities, metals and basic agricultural products without a uniform movement of major world currencies, that is, against the backdrop of the inactivity of the US dollar. Continuing this situation will allow the aussie to reach the target level of 0.7080, but there are no signs of this yet. The Marlin oscillator is growing on the daily chart, but is still in the negative zone.

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Marlin is already in the positive zone on the four-hour chart, and the price is higher than both indicator lines - balance and MACD. The Marlin convergence is weak, it could already be reached, but it has not yet exhausted itself at the moment. A reliable condition for growth to 0.7880 is when the price goes above the June 23 high at 0.6976. A condition for a downward movement is price taking below the signal level of 0.6842. The first target will be the level of 0.6680 - the March 9 peak.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 1, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar grew by 34 points against the yen on Tuesday, this morning the price grew by 25 points in the moment, the pair reached its first bullish target at 108.10 and sharply turned down. If this is a real reversal, then we can see the price on the support line of the price channel in the region of 105.78. The first sign of such a downward movement will be price taking at 107.77, after which it will become possible to decline to the first target of 107.10 - to the nearest line of the price channel of the monthly timeframe.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still in the positive area on the four-hour chart, which, of course, does not create a reliable condition for pulling down the price, respectively, for opening the short position early on. It is advisable to wait for the price to go below yesterday's low of 107.53. In this case, the price could fall to the MACD line at 107.00, which is close to the target on the daily chart of 107.10. Price taking below 107.10 opens the way to 105.78.

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