Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 09/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Robinhood International, a subsidiary of the US Stock Exchange and Robinhood cryptocurrency trading application, has been approved to act as an intermediary in the United Kingdom. According to a post published on the company's blog, a subsidiary of Robinhood, received approval from the main UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

Robinhood said FCA's permission would allow the company to make the investment platform available to British clients, adding that this step would be a key step towards democratizing finance for all. The Robinhood team in London is already growing, and the company is looking for new employees in the areas of operations, compliance, user research, and marketing.

Robinhood also appointed the former Treasury Chief of TransferWise, Wander Rutgers, as President of Robinhood International. Rutgers, who recently worked at Plum Fintech, a provider of personal savings assistant solutions, will manage British business and oversee the new Robinhood office in London.

The company offers free cryptocurrency trading. In February 2018, the Robinhood mobile shopping application launched a zero-fee for Bitcoin and Ethereum for the first batch of users in the US. Earlier this year, Robinhood received a BitLicense license to offer cryptography services in New York from the New York State Financial Services Department.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made a breakout below the technical support at the level of $221.50 and made a new local low at the level of $213.75. This level is very close to the 61% retracement of the last wave up, which is located at the level of $212.28 and might be a pivotal level for the correction. So far the price is moving inside of the channel, but any breakout higher will be the first signal that the bulls are back in control of the market. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $210.04.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $260.89

WR2 - $241.83

WR1 - $232.61

Weekly Pivot - $214.73

WS1 - $206.31

WS2 - $187.76

WS3 - $178.82

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $235.42 to confirm the bullish momentum.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 09/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD market is continuing the horizontal consolidation in a narrow range as it still does not have enough upward momentum to break through the lower trendline boundary located around the level of 1.2270. The momentum indicator remains neutral, which indicates a further possible spike towards the level of 1.1983. The trend is still down and there are no signs of a trend reversal yet, but the choppiness of the price action is still high, so there are no clear trading setups present on this market for now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2595

WR2 - 1.2485

WR1 - 1.2298

Weekly Pivot - 1.2184

WS1 - 1.1983

WS2 - 1.1676

WS3 - 1.0876

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 and 1.1983. All the corrections are just the local correction inside of a downtrend.

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Control zones for GBP/USD pair on 08/09/19

Continuing the fall of the pair is a higher priority, so you should pay attention to finding favorable prices for the sale of the instrument. Great prices are in the 1/2 WCZ of 1.2263-1.2247. However, this zone is located outside the daily average move, which makes its achievement unlikely this week.

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Working in the flat implies that there are inputs from the boundaries of the range and fixation at opposite extremes. In this case, any transition to momentum will be taken with a high degree of probability at the most favorable prices.

To implement an alternative model, the closing of trades in the area of a minimum of a week will be required. This will entail a further decrease in the pair without the formation of a deep correction model. Since the downward movement is a strong long-term impulse, this alignment will allow you to keep sales that were opened earlier and receive more significant profits.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 09/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The current price action on the EUR/USD pair looks like a pennant formation in progress, so there is still a chance for a potential move up towards the level of 1.1347 despite the overbought market conditions. The strong and positive momentum supports this short-term outlook, but the breakout above the level of 1.1250 is needed to confirm the Pennant pattern is completed. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.1167 would invalidate this pattern.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1304

WR2 - 1.1233

WR1 - 1.1170

Weekly Pivot - 1.1096

WS1 - 1.1037

WS2 - 1.0957

WS3 - 1.0876

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. The Ending Diagonal pattern has not been finished yet and the bears are in full control of the market. The longer-term target is seen at the level of 1.0814, from where the traders can expect a larger rebound.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 9 - 2019

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GBP/JPY remains locked in a narrow band between 128.09 - 130.23. As long as the short-term important resistance at 130.23 is able to cap the upside, we could see a final dip closer to our ideal target at 127.93 to complete the corrective decline from 148.87.

Once the low is in place and the short-term important resistance at 130.23 has been broken, we will look for much higher levels and ultimate a break back above 148.87. Nevertheless, for now, GBP/JPY remains stuck and we will have to accept the possibility of a final dip closer to 127.93 before turning towards the upside

R3: 131.62

R2: 130.73

R1: 130.23

Pivot: 129.60

S1: 128.87

S2: 128.49

S3: 128.09

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity at 128.05 or upon a break above 130.23

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Trading plan for US Dollar Index for August 09, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index remains in the buy zone of the immediate support trend line as depicted here on the 4H chart view. Prices seem to have bounced right at the trend line support around 97.20 levels earlier before drifting a bit sideways.The wave counts also suggest that a 5 wave impulse (1), has been followed by a 3 wave corrective drop, labelled is (2) on the chart. Also note that prices have bounced from the convergence point of Fibonacci 50% retracement along with the past resistance turned support zone. The ideal direction from here should be a rally, exceeding above its swing highs at 98.90 levels earlier. Immediate price support is seen at 96.50 levels, and till the time the US Dollar Index remains above that, look for a rally.

Trading plan:

Long now @ 97.50/60, stop @ 96.50, target 99.00 plus.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 9 - 2019

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EUR/JPY failed to break back above minor resistance at 119.36 which turned into a new downside pressure with a new low at 118.32. With the 61.8% corrective target, EUR/JPY is ready to challenge the upside again, but we need a break above minor resistance at 119.37 and more importantly, a break above 119.36 to confirm that the corrective downside pressure is complete and a new impulsive rally higher to 122.02 is developing.

R3: 120.70

R2: 120.33

R1: 119.88

Pivot: 119.36

S1: 118.54

S2: 118.32

S3: 118.03

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 118.95 with our stop placed at 118.30

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Trading plan for EURUSD for August 09, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways after printing highs at 1.1250 levels earlier. Furthermore, the EUR/USD pair has tested the resistance trend line. However, it is still into the sell zone. Looking into the wave structure, a 5 wave dropped from 1.1412 through 1.1020 levels has been retraced 50% at 1.1250 levels. The corrective 3 waves rally could be either complete or advance to 1.1260 level respectively. A continued drop from here towards 1.1120 levels would confirm that a meaningful top is in place at 1.1250 levels and that prices are heading lower towards 1.0930 respectively. Also note that immediate price resistance is at 1.1285 levels and EURUSD should stay below that mark. However, 1.1412 level remains critical to decide the medium term outlook for EURUSD. At the moment, selling on rallies is favored.

Trading plan:

Remain short from 1.1200 levels, stop above 1.1285, target is below 1.1020 level,

Good luck!

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, August 09,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as Italian Trade Balance, French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q, French Industrial Production m/m, and German Trade Balance will be published. The US will release sucheconomic data as PPI m/m and Core PPI m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1241. Strong Resistance:1.1235. Original Resistance: 1.1224. Inner Sell Area: 1.1213.Target Inner Area: 1.1187. Inner Buy Area: 1.1161. Original Support: 1.1150. Strong Support: 1.1139. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1133. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones NZDUSD 08/09/19

Yesterday's purchases from WCZ 1/2 06440-0.6434 should be transferred to breakeven, as the pair reached the average weekly move and will test the weekly CZ 0.6506-0.6494. When testing the specified zone, you can close part of the position, as the probability of the appearance of a proposal and the formation of a correctional model increases.

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When working towards strengthening the New Zealand dollar, pay attention to the fall that occurred on Wednesday. Returning to the opening point of the medium will be decisive for the current upward movement.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs above the level of 0.6506. This will lead to further growth next week. It is important to understand that this growth will require compensation, since the pair will go beyond the average course of the week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, August 09,2019

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Japan will release such economic data as the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Prelim GDP q/q, Prelim GDP Price Index y/y, and M2 Money Stock y/y. The US will publish such economic data as PPI m/m and Core PPI m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3 : 106.54. Resistance. 2:106.33. Resistance. 1:106.12. Support. 1:105.87. Support. 2:105.66. Support. 3:105.45. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on August 9, 2019

USD / JPY pair

The fall of the dollar by more than three figures against the yen in the first week of August was so strong that even yesterday, the pair closed the day with a decrease of 18 points. Only today's optimistic data on Japanese economies were able to slightly reverse the trend. The GDP for the 2nd quarter was 0.4% against the expectation of 0.1% on an annualized basis while the GDP was 1.8% against the forecast of 0.4%. Consumer spending for the quarter increased by an expected of 0.6%. The Japanese stock index Nikkei225 is growing today at 0.54%.

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On the daily chart of the yen, the price turned out to be the retained line of the rising price channel. The Marlin oscillator hardly leaves the oversold zone. The immediate goal of growth is the line of the downward price channel at around 106.48.

On the four-hour chart, the marlin signal line has fixed in the growth zone after the formation of upward convergence. We are waiting for the price to move upward. In the case of overcoming the first level of 106.48, the next goal is the MACD line of 106.86 on H4. Furthermore, we expect a more significant growth to the MACD line near 107.60 on a daily chart.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 9, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro lost 19 points yesterday, having previously touched the resistance of the Kruzenshtern line on the daily chart for the third time. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator pressed against the boundary that divides the growth zone from the declining trend zone. The price is currently "magnetized" to the line of the downward price channel. Leaving the price under the line will make it possible to work out the nearest target of 1.1155 - the Fibonacci level of 110.0%, consolidating below the level opens the second target 1.1074 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6%.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is held above the indicator lines of the balance sheet and MACD, but the Marlin has already moved towards a potential decline in the trend. The initial target of 1.1155 on H4 corresponds to the support of the MACD line - the blue indicator line of the trend. Support, therefore, takes on strategic importance, and the market is in no hurry to decide whether to attack it or not.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 9, 2019

GBP/USD

As a result of yesterday, the British pound fell by 11 points, today it is trading in the Thursday range during the Asian session, but the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has grown slightly, which means that the risk of a price growth remains - first to the price channel line (1.2252), then, in the event of consolidation above the resistance, to the MACD line, in the region of 1.2403.

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On a smaller chart, H4, the resistance is maintained by the MACD line, but in order to develop growth, it needs to go much higher than it, above the upper limit of the consolidation range of 1.2100-1.2209. To move down the price it is enough to overcome the support of the specified range.

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Today, important economic data is released across the UK, forecasts are weak; Q2 GDP is expected to grow at zero, industrial production in June may show a decrease of 0.2%, the forecast for construction volume is -0.4%, and the trade balance may worsen from -11.52 billion pounds to -11.80 billion. If expectations do not fail (we still adhere to the main scenario of the downward movement), then we expect the first breakthrough of the pound in the range of 1.2032/55, then to the target level of 1.1986 (a low of January 2017).

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Control zones AUDUSD 08/09/19

Yesterday, the pair went beyond the weekly average. Fixation rate of purchases during the test of the weekly control zone 0.6826-0.6813 is required. The rest should be transferred to breakeven, and in the case of the formation of a reversal pattern, "false breakdown" of yesterday's maximum completely close the purchase.

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The upward movement is now an impulse, since the growth rate exceeds the similar decline of the previous days.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs above the level of 0.6826. This will allow us to consider the pair's purchases for the next week after returning to the level of 0.6784. It is important to note that part of the purchases can be kept with the target at 0.6956, since this level is significant in the medium term.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones EURUSD 08/09/19

Today's movement takes place within the local accumulation zone, so purchases from the bottom of the flat are the most profitable deals. The WCZ 1/2 1.1170-1.1162 is in the lower range, which is the defining support for the entire upward movement. A test in this zone will indicate a further priority.

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Purchasing from the zone is the most profitable model, since the probability of updating the monthly high is 70%, and the violation of the upward impulse has not yet occurred.

An alternative model that will completely change the balance of power will become relevant if the closure of today's US session occurs below the level of 1.1162. This will indicate the need to close all balances of a long position and search for selling prices on Monday.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the major currency pairs on August 9

Forecast for August 9 :

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1284, 1.1259, 1.1234, 1.1162, 1.1145 and 1.1120. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the ascending structure on August 1. The continuation of the upward trend is possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.1234. In this case, the target is 1.1259. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1284, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1162 - 1.1145. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the goal is 1.1120. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 1, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1234 Take profit: 1.1258

Buy 1.1261 Take profit: 1.1284

Sell: 1.1162 Take profit: 1.1146

Sell: 1.1144 Take profit: 1.1122

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2254, 1.2192, 1.2158, 1.2099, 1.2069 and 1.2021. Here, we follow the descending cycle of July 19, as well as the local descending structure of July 31. Short-term movement to the bottom is except in the range of 1.2099 - 1.2069. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 1.2021. We expect a correction to this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2158 - 1.2192. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the top. Here, the potential target is 1.2254.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 19, the local structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2158 Take profit: 1.2191

Buy: 1.2194 Take profit: 1.2254

Sell: 1.2099 Take profit: 1.2070

Sell: 1.2067 Take profit: 1.2025

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9797, 0.9737, 0.9706, 0.9673 and 0.9641. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on August 1. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9737. In this case, the target is 0.9706. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9706 - 9637. We consider the level of 0.9641 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9797 - 0.9816. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9854. This level is a key support for the downward structure from August 1.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 1, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9797 Take profit: 0.9816

Buy : 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9852

Sell: 0.9735 Take profit: 0.9707

Sell: 0.9704 Take profit: 0.9675

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 107.62, 107.20, 106.72, 105.71, 105.14, 104.44 and 104.00. Here, we follow the descending structure of August 1. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 105.71. In this case, the goal is 105.14, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 105.14 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 104.45. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 104.00. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction.

Departure to the correction zone is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.72. Here, the goal is 107.20. The range of 107.20 - 107.62 is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: descending structure of August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.72 Take profit: 107.20

Buy : 107.22 Take profit: 107.62

Sell: 105.69 Take profit: 105.15

Sell: 105.13 Take profit: 104.46

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3444, 1.3393, 1.3354, 1.3329, 1.3280, 1.3212, 1.3175 and 1.3102. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upward structure on July 31. The breakdown of the level of 1.3212 will lead to the formation of expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.3175. Price consolidation is near this level. The continuation of the movement to the top is possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.3280. In this case, the first target is 1.3329. Consolidation is in the range of 1.3329 - 1.3354. The breakdown of the level of 1.3355 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3393.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of July 31, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3280 Take profit: 1.3329

Buy : 1.3355 Take profit: 1.3392

Sell: 1.3212 Take profit: 1.3178

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6789, 0.6762 and 0.6733. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 7th. At the moment, we expect a movement to the level of 0.6843. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6843 - 0.6869. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6902. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6902 - 0.6922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6789 - 0.6762. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6733. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle of August 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6845 Take profit: 0.6867

Buy: 0.6870 Take profit: 0.6902

Sell : 0.6787 Take profit : 0.6764

Sell: 0.6760 Take profit: 0.6735

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 120.68, 120.20, 119.85, 119.43, 118.94, 118.64, 118.22 and 117.68. Here, the price is in deep correction from the ascending structure on August 5. The cancellation of this structure requires the breakdown of the level of 118.20. In this case, the first potential target is 117.68. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 119.43. In this case, the target is 119.85. Consolidation is in the range of 119.85 - 120.20. The breakdown of the level of 120.20 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 120.68. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.35.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of August 5, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.45 Take profit: 119.85

Buy: 120.20 Take profit: 120.68

Sell: 118.62 Take profit: 118.24

Sell: 118.20 Take profit: 117.72

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 130.86, 130.23, 129.80, 128.98, 128.30 and 127.85. Here, we follow the local descending structure of July 31. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 128.30 - 127.85. In this case, the target is 126.97. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 126.19. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

The range of 129.80 - 130.23 is the key support. Its breakdown will allow counting on movement to the level of 130.86, which is a key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward trend.

The main trend is the local descending structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.26 Take profit: 130.84

Sell: 127.85 Take profit: 127.00

Sell: 126.95 Take profit: 126.20

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What currencies will the United States buy in case of intervention

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Donald Trump has long been indignant over the fact that the expensive dollar is offsetting the competitive advantages of the United States. At this time, experts from leading banks in the world are vying to talk about the upcoming devaluation of the US currency. Given the speed of the renminbi's fall, the need to act is clearly brewing.

Although on the Bank of China stabilized the yuan on Thursday, according to strategists, this is not for long. Fixing the course and focusing the market at around seven is just a distracting maneuver and a desire to divert markets from panic. The dramatic fall of the renminbi cannot be ruled out, Goldman Sachs believes. The risk is that the US Presidential Administration will respond to this kind of incident.

Analysts have several options for Washington to conduct a currency intervention against the dollar, including the most extreme.

The US can conduct a direct foreign exchange intervention by selling dollars and buying currencies like the euro and the yen. The effect will be minimal, and coordination with Congress will be required. Therefore, the US president is likely to take advantage of a hidden trump card, with which he will immediately solve the problem of the small size of the ESF and will do without the approval of Congress. The owner of the White House may declare the currency intervention emergency, forcing the Fed to sell dollars from its account. This, of course, is unlikely, but given that Trump has already declared a state of emergency to increase duties on China's goods, everything is possible.

In this scenario, the dollar will plummet also because confidence in it as a world reserve currency will drop. World central banks and other large investors with $6 trillion worth of Treasuries on their balance sheets will begin to hastily dispose of these securities.

It is possible that the warlike rhetoric of the US president is a negative imprint. Demand at auctions for the placement of state bonds jumped up and down, the share of foreigners in the Treasury market fell to a 15-year low of 40%. The largest US lender - China - bought very little. Japan reduced its position in Treasury to its lowest level in almost 20 years.

There are analysts, including Goldman Sachs, who doubt the reality of interventions aimed at lowering the dollar. The United States has not attempted to devalue the national currency since 1985, the decision to do so now would look strange and scare off foreign investors, putting all domestic assets — from Treasuries to shares — at risk.

What if the intervention happens?

The yen along with the Australian and Singapore dollar, as well as the Korean won, could be the main purchasing targets in the Asia-Pacific region. The yuan has significant weight in the effective dollar exchange rate index, but the United States will be politically embarrassed to take Chinese government securities due to hostile relations.

The United States can sell dollars, putting pressure on other Asian economies to limit the weakness of their currencies. This includes Malaysia and Vietnam, which are monitored by the Treasury, as well as Taiwan and India, whose currencies affect the effective exchange rate of the dollar.

The Bank of America admits that foreign exchange intervention may be successful. Ultimately, it will not lead to the desired goal, moreover, it will be in conflict with the United States' interest.

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Analysts expect British pound rally

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According to some analysts, when all the unrest associated with Brexit and the volatility in the global financial markets is over, investors will begin to massively buy the British currency. Many analysts believe that the pound is underestimated, and it's time will soon come.

The British currency is trading near the lows of 2016-2017 at the moment. Analysts at the largest Lloyds bank are confident that the difficult political situation in the UK will make the pound once again show a decline. The bank believes that by the end of 2019, the British currency will be at around 1.29 against the US dollar, and it will rise to 1.33 by the end of 2020.

Analyzing the British pound market, other analysts predict a slight increase in the GBP/USD pair. Currently, the pound is trading at $1.2125 against the US dollar. Some analysts recommend selling the British currency.

The bank believes that prospects for the pound's dynamics look uncertain, but urge not to fall into pessimism. Lloyds believes that the situation with Brexit will be resolved safely, but they do not exclude the pound rally in the near future. If a compromise is reached regarding Britain's exit from the EU, the prospects for the British currency will be positive, analysts say. This will give confidence to investors who recall the strong undervaluation of the pound and begin to acquire it, according to Lloyds.

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Deciding to sell the euro is not easy right now, but it is worth trying on growth attempts

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Strategists at Bank of Montreal (BMO) believe that one should not be surprised at the recent upward movement of EUR/USD, as well as high hopes for the development of upward dynamics.

"Negative rates by the ECB made the euro a funding currency, and the reduction in the position of carry traders in the context of an escalation of the US and China conflict gave a fresh impetus to the growth of EUR/USD. However, the situation in the eurozone, including Germany, has not been doing very well lately, and the deterioration of the prospects for the Chinese economy bodes big trouble in Europe," analysts said.

"We believe that the European Central Bank will have to lower rates even lower into the zone of negative values, and the new difficult period in the EU's economy threatens to exacerbate political tension within the bloc, which also risks the consequences of a "hard" Brexit," they added.

The BMO expects that over the next three months, the EUR/USD pair may drop to 1.08.

"It is obvious that the price of survival of the eurozone is rising, and this will be reflected in some combination of political tension, the weakness of the euro and the limited growth of the region's GDP," representatives of the financial institute said.

"There is definitely no reason for buying the euro now. Although selling the single European currency in terms of the accumulated volume of positions, the carry trade does not look like a simple solution. However, for everyone who is not afraid, we recommend selling EUR/USD with a stop at 1.1400 and a target at 1.08," they said.

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#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 08, 2019 APLs &

We consider what will happen with the development of the movement of currency instruments in a comprehensive manner - having a specific gravity of 83.1% in the calculation of the dollar index - EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY from August 08, 2019.

Minuette operational Scale (H4 time frame)

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US dollar index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from August 08, 2019 will receive its development depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 97.45 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 97.35 (upper boundary of ISL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale fork).

A combined breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 97.35) and the lower border (support level of 97.25) of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette will confirm that the further development of the movement of the dollar index will begin to occur within the equilibrium zone (97.35 - 96.90 - 96.40) of the Minuette operational scale.

With the breakdown of the resistance level of 97.45 (the starting line SSL Minuette), followed by the breakdown of 1/2 Median Line Minuette (97.60), it will be possible to develop an upward movement of #USDX to the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (97.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork and the equilibrium zone (98.35 - 98.60 - 98.90) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

As further as August 08, 2019, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will begin to occur. It will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1230 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette);
  • support level of 1.1220 (lower boundary of ISL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (resistance level of 1.1230) will determine the development of the movement of the single European currency inside the equilibrium zone (1.1220 - 1.1280 - 1.1335) of the Minuette operational scale fork, depending on the development of the local maximum 1.1251.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1220 (the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork) will direct the development of the EUR / USD movement to the targets - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1.1190) - the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.1150) and another option - reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1125 - 1.1085 - 1.1055) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The currency of Her Majesty GBP / USD from August 08, 2019 will also develop its movement depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2185 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.1220 (reaction line RL100.0 Minuette).

With the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 1.2185), the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue to move in the equilibrium zone (1.2185 - 1.2230 - 1.2275) of the Minuette operational scale fork, and if there will be a breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (1.2275), then the upward movement of the GBP / USD may continue to the final line FSL Minuette (1.2415).

On the contrary, if GBP / USD returns below the RL100.0 Minuette reaction line (support level of 1.2120), the downward movement can continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2100 - 1.2070 - 1.2035) with the prospect of reaching the LTL control line (1.1950) of the Minuette operational scale.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the movement of the "currency of the country of the rising sun" USD / JPY from August 08, 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 105.95 (final Schiff Line Minuette);
  • support level of 105.65 (warning line LWL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the support level of 105.65 (warning line LWL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale fork) will make it relevant to continue the development of the downward movement of USD / JPY to targets - the control line LTL Minuette (105.40) - the warning line LWL61.8 Minuette (105.00) - the final line FSL Minuette (104.60) - warning line LWL100.0 Minuette (104.60).

The breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minuette (resistance level of 105.95) will direct the development of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (106.30 - 106.80 - 107.30) and 1/2 Median Line channel (107.15 - 107.55 -107.95) of the Minuette operational scale.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY vs GBP / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 08, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

Let's consider how further the development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" and its cross-instrument EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY will begin to flow from August 08, 2019.

Minuette operational scale (H4 timeframe)

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY from August 08, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level 106.05 (lower limit of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the forks of the operational scale Minute);
  • support level 105.60 (start line SSL forks of operational scale Minuette).

A joint breakdown of the SSL start line (resistance level 105.60) forks of the Minuette operational scale, the final Shiff Line Minute (105.35) and the LTL Minuette control line (105.15) will make it possible to continue the downward movement of the currency of the "rising sun" to the final FSL (104.25) and warning LWL38 .2 (103.35) lines of forks of operational scale Minute.

If breakdown ISL61.8 Minute takes place (resistance level 108.25), then the development of the USD / JPY movement will continue within the boundaries of the equilibrium zones Minute (106.05 - 106.60 - 107.10) and Minuette (107.10 - 107.35 - 108.00).

Details of the movement of USD / JPY, depending on the direction of breakdown of the range, are shown in the animated chart.

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Euro vs Japanese yen

The development of the EUR / JPY cross-tool movement from August 08, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (119.20 - 118.85 - 118.40) of the forks of the Minuette operational scale ( we look at the markup on the animation chart).

Successful breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (support level 118.40) of the equilibrium zone of the forks of the operational scale Minuette and ISL38.2 Minute (118.30) will determine the development of the EUR / JPY movement within the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (118.30 - 117.70 - 117.10) of the forks of the operational scale Minute and channel 1/2 Median Line (117.50 - 117.25 - 116.85) forks of operational scale Minuette.

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary ISL61.8 (resistance level 119.20) of the equilibrium zone of the forks of the operational scale Minuette, the development of the movement of this cross-tool will continue in the 1/2 channel Median Line ( 119.05 - 119.50 - 119.90) of the forks of the operational scale Minute with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL line Minute (120.05) and the final line FSL Minuette (120.35).

Details of the movement of EUR / JPY depending on the development of the boundaries of this zone are presented on the animation chart.

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Great Britain Pound vs Japanese Yen

And the movement of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument from August 08, 2019 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the channel boundaries 1/2 Median Line (128.40 - 129.00 - 129.40) of the operational scale Minuette (see the animation for details).

If the support level of 128.40 is broken down at the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the forks of the operational Minuette scale and the local minimum of 128.07 is updated, the downward movement of GBP / JPY to the targets will be possible to continue - the initial SSL Minuette line (127.50) - the final FSL line (126.90) forks operational scale Minute - control line LTL Minuette (126.55) with the prospect of reaching the warning line LWL38.2 Minute (125.35).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 129.40 (the upper boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette) will direct the development of the movement of this cross-instrument to the borders of the equilibrium zones of the pitchforks of the operational scales Minuette ( 129.80 - 130.40 - 131.10) and Minute (129.80 - 130.75 - 131.60).

The GBP / JPY movement options, depending on the direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette, are presented in the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD is waiting for the mark of $1.15

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China has added some positive to the gloomy market environment, reporting unexpectedly strong export data despite a large-scale trade war. Imports also turned out to be better than market participants could have expected. This means that domestic demand in the country is not so weak.

The Bank of China also slightly calmed traders. The country's monetary authorities set the yuan at a more solid level than on Wednesday. The market immediately started talking about the stabilization of the course. The concern that China will continue to devalue its currency is gradually disappearing. It seems that the USD/CNY rally above the psychologically important mark of 7 was nothing more than a weapon demonstration.

USD/CNY

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The health of the Chinese economy is poor due to protectionism. The risks of a recession in leading world countries have recently grown significantly. A decline in the yield curve to its lowest level since 2007 suggests that not everything is as good in the United States as Donald Trump would have liked. Note that this indicator accurately predicted a decline over the past 50 years.

The US central bank is sensitive to raising international risks. According to his senior representative Charles Evans, trade conflicts create a headwind for the US economy. With its strengthening, the Fed is obliged to take necessary measures. Earlier, Evans warned that the central bank will not limit itself with one rate cut by 25 bp in 2019. Now the official allows it to fall to zero. In the past few days, the derivatives market has increased the likelihood of three acts of monetary easing by the end of the year from 8% to 50%. The likelihood of a rate cut by 50 bp in September rose from 2% to 33%.

JPMorgan believes in lower rates and higher currencies EM

Along with the slow growth of global GDP under the influence of the trade conflict, the Fed may unnerve another fact. The central banks of New Zealand, India and Taiwan have loosened monetary policy. Not only them but this is happening all over the world.

The Federal Reserve has no other way than to soften politics. This will limit the growth of the dollar and set in motion the exchange rates of developing countries, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.

The weakness of the EM currencies is justified after the so-called "hawkish reduction" of the Fed rate and trade tension. Now, according to representatives of the bank, the most important will be to monitor the response of the United States. EM debt in local currency will be profitable for investment, as global central banks cut rates in an effort to counter the slowdown in global GDP growth.

The lion's share of respondents are confident in reducing the rate by 75 bp by the end of 2019 If this really happens, the US dollar will seriously weaken its position. The EUR/USD pair is expected to reach the lowest point in two years - $1.15 in 12 months. In the short term, a breakthrough of one of the boundaries of the consolidation range of $1.1175 –1.1245 will allow the single currency to decide on the future direction.

EUR/USD

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