EUR/NZD analysis for September 17, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading sideways around the price of 1.5850. As we expected, the price rejection took place from the level of 1.5800 (swing high like support) . I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% around the price of 1.5830 (already broken) and Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6010. If the price breaks the level of 1.5900 (swing high like resistance), we may see potential testing the level of 1.6000 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). According to the 1H time frame, we can observe Fibonacci retracement 38.2% from the most recenet upward leg at the price of 1.5847 (successful tested). Be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5867


R2: 1.5895


R3: 1.5940


Support levels:


S1: 1.5777


S2: 1.5749


S3: 1.5704


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we may see further upward movement.


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Gold analysis for September 17, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1.236.00. We are facing a very quiet market today, so we are waiting for larger activity and volume on the market. I have placed Fibonacci expansion levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,240.00 (currently on the test), Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,244.00 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1,252.00. Our major Fibonacci expansion 100% is broken, so we may see potential testing the level of 1,218.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%, almost tested). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe very weak demand in a volume below average, which is a sign that buying still looks risky. Watch for potential selling opportuntiies after retracement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,241.57


R2: 1,244.17


R3: 1,248.37


Support levels:


S1: 1,233.37


S2: 1,230.57


S3: 1,226.37


Trading recommendations: Buying looks risky since the price has broke our Fibonacci expansion 100%.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 17 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5943


R2: 1.5893


R1: 1.5878


Current spot: 1.5849


S1: 1.5824


S2: 1.5796


S3: 1.5773


Technical summary:


We are testing of 1.5773 the correction towards 1.5766 we where looking for is over. We will now be looking for a rally above minor resistance at 1.5893 confirming the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.6203 and more likely even to 1.6450. Ideally, we will see minor support at 1.5843 will protect the downside, but only a break below 1.5773 will delay the expected upside pressure, for a slightly more complex correction.


Trade recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5550 with stop at 1.5750. If you are not long in EUR yet, the buy EUR near 1.5773 or upon a break above 1.5893 with the same stop at 1.5750


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 17 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 139.46


R2: 139.29


R1: 139.17


Current spot: 139.07


S1: 138.94


S2: 138.76


S3: 138.46


Technical summary:


We think that red wave ii still is unfolding. We would like to see resistance at 139.17 protecting the upside for a final decline to 138.46 and maybe even slightly below, but this is not a correction to be trended (correction of this degree never is). So, we have nothing to do than to wait for a level where to buy EUR for the next impulsive rally higher to 143.79. In the short term, a break below minor support at 138.94 will be the first indication, that the final leg in this correction is developing for the decline to 138.46 before higher again.


Trade recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 135.95 with stop placed at 137.50. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 138.46 with the same stop at 137.50.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 17, 2014

General overview for 17/09/2014 11:20 CET


The alternative count has been invalidated due to wave 1 and wave 4 red overlaps and now the main count is in play. The pair has fallen out of the golden channel and now the main important question is whether the current wave progression is still a part of an impulsive wave 3 green to the upside (main count) or if the current wave progression is a part of a more complex and time-consuming corrective cycle in green wave 2 labeled as an alternative count. It seems there are two key levels on the chart, that might help to give more clues for a further wave development. To follow the main count, the market must now develop an impulsive five wave rally to the upside, that will clearly break the key level at the technical resistance at the level of 1.1027. However, if the level of 1.0931 is broken first, the chances are high, that market is following the alternative count of an unfinished irregular flat correction, labeled as alt:A and alt.B green.



Support/Resistance:

1.1097 - Swing Top

1.1037 - Weekly Pivot

1.1027 - Technical Resistance|Key Level|

1.0978 - WS1

1.0963 - Intraday Resistance

1.0931 - Intraday Support|Key Level|

Trading recommendations:

As long as the demand zone is not broken, the mid-term bias is still bullish so buying the dips in this pair is advised. For day traders the SL level would be below the level of 1.0930 and TP level is currently open. usdcad_h1.jpg


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 17, 2014

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In July 15, extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been downtrending limited by the depicted pattern.


Two successive bearish impulses were initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 corresponding to the upper limit of the depicted channel.


Price level of 1.6140 constitutes a prominent weekly support to meet the pair. Temporary breakdown took place last week as depicted on the chart. However, bullish rejection was witnessed in the recent daily candlesticks ( note the bullish engulfing daily candlestick which emerged on Thursday). This led to a bullish weekly closure ( above the weekly support level around 1.6250 ).


We expect the GBP/USD pair to retrace towards the price zone of 1.6330-1.6400 where a new bearish impulse is expected to be applied offering a valid low-risk sell entry. Stop loss should be set as daily closure above 1.6410.


This price zone corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as prominent Fibonacci level of the recent bearish impulse between 1.7180 and 1.6060.


Today's daily closure should be considered. A bullish candlestick will probably allow the bulls to retest 1.6330-1.6400 again before further decline can take place.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 17, 2014

General overview for 17/09/2014 11:10 CET

The corrective cycle in shape of an abc irregular flat is looking completed and a downtrend should resume soon now. Please notice, that any breakout higher above the level of 139.17 will invalidate the green bearish count and will make another high in black wave B possible. On the other hand, the downside will be confirmed if the grey area labeled as a supply breakthrough zone will be clearly violated. Otherwise the corrective cycle might get more complex and time-consuming.


Support/Resistance:

139.16 - 139.25 - Technical Resistance Zone |Intraday Resistance|Key Level|

138.77 - Intraday Support

138.42 - Intraday Support

138.30 - Weekly Pivot

138.25 - Technical Support

137.48 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Swing traders that are still keeping buy orders from last week should get ready to close the positions and wait for a further wave progression as the trend looks mature and reversal/correction is possible. Breakout below the level of 138.25 is the first strong confirmation that the top for wave B black is in place at the level of 139.16.

Day traders that went short recently should place the SL order above the level of 139.17 with TP open for now. New high invalidates this idea.eurjpy_h1.jpg


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 17, 2014

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Overview :



  • Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.3009 and 1.2933, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Also, It should be noted that the market showed the signs of instability because the trend movement was controversial as it took place in the narrow sideways channel. So, the market was in an uptrend for a short term. Moreover, it might be noticed that the price of EUR/USD pair has been rebounding higher towards the level of 1.2973. Also, note that we expect a range of 70 pips today and the level of 1.2933 will act as a key level to confirm the bullish market. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2933 (1.2929: 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels), with the first target of 1.2983, it might resume to the 1.3009 price in order to form a double top in H1 chart. Conversely, the price may close below 1.3009 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels) in H1 chart. Consequently, the price will call for a bearish market to go further towards the level of 1.3009. However, it should be always noted that the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.


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Intraday analysis of EUR/USD for September 17, 2014

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The pair has been making lower lows for trading 6 sessions. The pair is facing strong resistance at 1.30 and 1.3060 (20Dsma). Until the price closes below 1.3060, sell on an upmove will be preferable in the near term. Fresh selling will trigger below 1.2924 towards 1.2909 and on positional basis 1.2765 is the medium-term strong support and an open target with 1.3060 on a closing basis. On the other side, if the pair manages to close above 1.3060, it can fly up to 1.3160 and 1.32 but chances are very remote.


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Intraday trading recommendations on USD/CAD for September 17, 2014

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The pair made a double top at 1.11 (rounded) in the weekly chart, the pair has support between 1.1030-1.1026, below these it has support at 1.1 and 1.0950 50.0 fib level. For the short term, it has support at the 1.0858 and 1.0832 levels. In the near term, the pair has support at 1.0944, so bulls need to worry only about closing below this. We recommend fresh buying above 1.11 for an upside target at the 1.1150,1.20 and 1.1225 levels. The pair has a long list of supports to save bulls.


Support 1.1026 1.0950 1.0834


Resistance 1.11 1.1150 1.1225


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For an intraday basis, the pair is trading at 1.972 level at an Asian session. The pair has support at 1.0967 levels. The price closed far below 35DEMA and 12ema and represents some weakness on hourly basis. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.0965 for a downside target 1.0956, 1.0934, and 1.0920. Safe traders can sell below 1.0967. Until the pair trades below 1.1045, selling on the rise will mint the money.


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Daily analysis of USDX for September 17, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX continues trying to form a bullish pattern below the strong resistance level of 84.29. Now, the USDX could fall to the support level of 83.74 in the next few days, because this instrument is performing corrective movements in this chart. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone and negative territory.


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H4 chart: This instrument has formed a bearish pattern below the trend line at the 84.35 level and now the USDX could make a drop to the level of 83.75. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the support level of 82.95, where the 200 SMA is. The MACD is in negative territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX has made a rebound on the 200-day moving average on this chart; so far, the USDX is trying to make a breakout on the resistance level of 84.18. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 84.37 in the short term. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the level of 83.73.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 84.18, take profit is at 84.37, and stop loss is at 83.99.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 17, 2014

Daily chart: The GBP/USD has consolidated above the support level of 1.6235, as this pair has tried to recover from the deep slump which has been seen several days. If the GBPUSD manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.6326, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6447, which is close to the 200 SMA, the MACD remains in positive territory.


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H4 chart: The GBP/USD is trying to form a bullish pattern above the 1.6247 level. If the pair manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.6300, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6365, where one bullish trend line is on this chart. For now, the GBP/USD remains strong in the bearish bias. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.


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H1 chart: This pair is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 1.6252, so the GBP/USD is trying to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6291 to consolidate in the bullish trend. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6338. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6252, take profit is at 1.6216, and stop loss is at 1.6289.


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Intraday trading recommendations for USD/CHF for September 17, 2014

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The pair has been facing strong resistance at 100WEma around 0.94 levels. The pair has been making minor support between 0.93-0.9315 levels. On the upside, the resistance zone is between 0.9366-0.9399. We recommend fresh buying above 0.94 for an upside target at 0.9450 and 0.9535. The pair has strong ST support at 0.9175 and for the NT 0.9248 is the support level, until the prices close above 0.9248, buying on dips is favored.


Support 0.9315-0.93 0.9285 0.9250


Resistance 0.9360 0.94


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For an intraday basis, the prices are trading slightly below the hourly key moving averages. The hourly Stochstics is indicating a small positive divergence. We recommend selling only below 0.93 for a downside target at 0.9286, 0.9260, maybe 0.9220. In the H4 chart, the pair has been making lower high and lower low swing. The bulls can have an upper hand only above 0.9360 and strong up move will be triggered above 0.94.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 17, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Italian Trade Balance, Final CPI y/y, Final Core CPI y/y. The US will release the economic data too such as the CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Current Account, NAHB Housing Market Index, Crude Oil Inventories, Federal Funds Rate, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3021.

Strong Resistance:1.3014.

Original Resistance: 1.3001.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2988.

Target Inner Area: 1.2958.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2928.

Original Support: 1.2915.

Strong Support: 1.2902.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2895.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 17, 2014

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data and the US will release some economic data such as CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Current Account, NAHB Housing Market Index, Crude Oil Inventories, Federal Funds Rate. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 107.80.

Resistance. 2: 107.59.

Resistance. 1: 107.38.

Support. 1: 107.12.

Support. 2: 106.91.

Support. 3: 106.70. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Intraday trading recommendations for Gold for September 17, 2014

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The yellow metal dropped to a 1-month low, rebounded from a lower level. The metal has a minor support at $1,229, below this, $1,225 is the key trigger for another free fall towards $1,215-$1,210 in the NT and $1,185-$1,150 in the ST. Traders eye on the Fed's statement regarding the US interest rate hike. On the upside, the metal is facing strong resistance at $1,242 levels, above this, it can fly up to $1,250, $1,258 and $1,262.50. A daily close above $1,262.50, the bulls will regain the strength in the NT, until selling on every up move mints the money.


Resistance $1,242 $1,250 $1,262.50


Support $1,229 $1,225 $1,215


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For an intraday basis, the metal has been facing strong resistance at 34hrsma ($1,241.60). The metal has support at $1,230.50-$1,230.0 level 35DEMA. We recommend selling below $1,230 for an immediate target of $1,227 and $1,225, panic is expected below this towards $1,220, $1,217.50, $1,215 and $1,210 levels. Above $1,242, buyers can have an upper hand towards $1,244.50 and $1,250 levels.


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 16, 2014

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Overview


In H4 chart, the pair failed to break the support level of 173.00. It has been trading above it since yesterday. Today the H4 chart shows that the pair bounced from the support area again and started to take a slightly upward move approaching the resistance level of 174.00. Currently, it is prefered to wait for closing above this resistance level, before making the decision and in this case we will get more bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next resistance level of 174.40, then 175.00 as the second target. But closing below the resistance level of 174.00 cancels the bullish move scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (175.00), R2 (174.40), R1(174.00), S1 (173.00), S2 (172.50), S3 (172.00).


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Daily analysis of Silver for September 16, 2014

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Overview


In today's H4 chart, we see that the metal is trading between the support level of 18.50 and below the resistance level of 19.75 after its failure to break the resistance level yesterday. It has bounced from it to take a slightly downward move. Currently, it is testing the support level of 18.50. At presently, we suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level of 18.75 in case of bouncing from the support level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 19.00. After breaking this resistance level, silver would open the way towards the resistance level of 19.20 that, which means more bullish signals.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (19.20), R2 (19.00), R1 (18.75), S1 (18.50), S2 (18.30).


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