BITCOIN Analysis for May 30, 2018

Bitcoin has been impulsive with the bullish gains yesterday which engulfed the previous day bearish pressure with ease. The recent bearish pressure in Bitcoin which led the price to reside below $8,000 is viewed as the impact of the investigation of the US Department of Justice for which certain market participants left the market. Though the investigation is still going on as the DOJ is still searching for transaction practices and if there is any crime related to it. Despite recent bad fundamentals, more investors like Boerse, owner of Frankfurt Stock Exchange, is looking forward to offer crypto currency investment products. Such positive fundamental is expected to attract more investors and market participants to the market.

As for the current scenario, the price is expected to push higher towards $8,000 area in the coming days but with certain corrections and volatility. It is not going to be straight path towards $8,000 but as the price moves higher, certain obligation and barriers is expected to remove itself along the way.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for May 30, 2018

EUR/AUD is still trading in a non-volatile manner in the bearish bias since it broke below 1.5750 area with a daily close. There has not been much of a pullback throughout the momentum which indicates the impulsive pressure AUD have over EUR for a while.

After the recent ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts providing data for slower growth of the Eurozone's economy, EUR has lost further momentum against all major currencies in the market. Today, the eurozone released a number of economic reports with mixed results which somehow injected some volatility in the market but that was not quite sufficient to counter the overall AUD momentum. Today, German Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 2.3% from the previous negative value of -0.4%, German Prelim CPI increased to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.0%, and French Prelim GDP was published with a decrease to 0.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.3%.

On the other hand, today Australia's Building Approvals report was published with a significant decrease to -5.0% from the previous positive value of 3.5%. The worse report weakened AUD in the meantime but it was temporary with the sustainability.

As for the current scenario, AUD is expected to resume its bearish pressure over EUR until the EUR comes up with better economic reports to counter the AUD gains with an impulsive momentum in the process. While Australia posts weaker data in the coming days, this may also lead to certain gains on the EUR side in the future. To sum up, AUD gains may lead to shorter term gains in the coming days whereas odds are against EUR which seem to fade away sooner due to the recent ECB prediction about the Eurozone economic plans.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has already rejected the bulls quite well today after an impulsive gain which indicates the strength of the bears in the process. Though after the break, certain retracement was expected but as the bearish pressure was quite strong, upcoming bearish momentum towards 1.52 is expected to be without any intervention. As the price reaches 1.52, certain bullish pressure may be observed which may lead to certain bullish impulsiveness in the pair in the future.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 30, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The key resistance at 0.9935. Despite yesterday's technical rebound, the pair is still under pressure below its horizontal resistance at 0.9930. A bearish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Additionally, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be very limited. Below 0.9930, look for a new decline to 0.9855 and 0.9815 in extension. .

Fundamentals:

After a strong end to 2017 and apparently a good start to this year, the Swiss economy appears to be softening. The KOF Economic Barometer fell 3.3 points in May to 100, right at its long-term average. The May reading was the weakest since the end of 2015.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9955, take profit at 0.9855.

Resistance levels: 0.9960, 0.9980, and 1.0005

Support levels: 0.9855, 0.9815, and 0.9775

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 30, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to continue its upside movement. The pair stands firmly above its horizontal support at 0.6925, representing a psychological level. A new rebound seems more likely to occur, as the rising 50-period moving average acts well as a support role, and should continue to push the prices higher. Last but not least, the relative strength index is turning up, and calls for a new upleg. Therefore, above 0.6925, look for 0.7005 and 0.7030 in extension.

Fundamental outlook:

New Zealand residential-building consents fell a less-than-thought 3.7% in April which followed March's 13% jump. Apartment consents remained at a relatively high level last month and there was also a lift in townhouses. Westpac expects home building activity to continue rising at a gradual pace as skilled-labor shortages, rising building costs and difficulties accessing finance are significant barriers to growth and are unlikely to be alleviated quickly.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7005, 0.7030, and 0.7075

Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6880, and 0.6835

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 30, 2018

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All our downside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is in a downward trend, capped by its negative trend line. Both the 20-period and 50-period simple moving average are heading downward, calling for a further decline. Furthermore, the relative strength index remains weak below its neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as 145.55 is not surpassed, likely decline to 144.00 and 143.15 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 145.75, 146.55, and 147.10

Support levels: 144, 143.00, and 142.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 30, 2018

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Technical Outlook :

USD/CAD is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair broke below its lower boundary of Bollinger Bands, indicating the downside acceleration. Both bearish 20-period and 50-period moving averages should push the prices lower. The relative strength index broke below its oversold level of 30, but has not displayed any reversal signal. Therefore, below 1.3050, look for a new test with targets at 1.2970 and 1.2920 in extension.

Fundamentals:

Canadian producer prices rose for a fourth straight month in April amid higher energy prices, and the country's raw-materials price index also advanced. Canada's industrial product price index rose 0.5% in April, Statistics Canada said Wednesday, following a 0.9% gain in the previous month. Market expectations were for a 0.6% increase in April, according to economists at Royal Bank of Canada. The index measures the price manufacturers in Canada receive once their goods leave the plant. It doesn't reflect the final prices consumers pay for goods on store shelves.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3080, and 1.3145

Support levels: 1.2970, 1.2920, and 1.2890

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 30, 2018

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Technical Overview: Our first target which we predicted in the yesterday's analysis has been hit. EUR/USD is expected to trade above the key support at 1.1570. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. To sum up, as long as 1.1570 holds on the downside, look for a rebound to 1.1675. A break above this level would trigger another buy off to 1.1700.

Fundamental Overview: The euro is rebounding today after a big fall the day before on the back of political uncertainties in Italy, helped by a shrinking spread between the Italian and German government bonds, as well as the reports that Italy's Five Star movement leader Luigi Di Maio said he never sought an exit from the euro area. EUR/USD is up by 0.3% at 1.1576.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 1.1675, 1.1700, and 1.1750

Support levels: 1.1550, 1.1515, and 1.1460

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily review of GBP / JPY pair as of 05/30/18. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / JPY pair

If we talk about prospects and further bearish plans, the main task now is the breakdown of the weekly cloud (Senkou Span B 144.21), with the aim of forming a new downward reference point, and also the execution of the decline to the final boundary of the monthly gold cross (Fibo Kijun 139.72). At the same time, it should be noted that the current significant targets have been sufficiently worked out (the target for the breakdown of the daytime cloud is 143.08 - 144.16 + week Senkou Span B 144.21 + monthly Kijun 144.34). So players can now take a pause to go downward. The accumulation of levels (144.16-21-34) can serve as a center of attraction. Players on the fall continue the decline that is desirable to maintain these levels, as the formation of rebound from the levels may delay or completely cancel the implementation of the bearish plans.

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

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Trading plan 05/30/2018

Trade plan 05/30/2018

The general picture: Italy mixed the cards.

The crisis in Italy about the government and the past elections caused some panic in the markets of Europe.

In Italy, populists, opponents of the EU and the Eurozone, have polled up to 60% of support. However, the right-wing and left-wing populists did not agree on the government, and Italy is likely waiting for new elections in September.

The main thing is Italy's huge public debt any attempts to exit the Eurozone will immediately cause the collapse of Italy's national debt.

Yet, we believe that the Italian populists are not ready for suicide in Italy and their exit from the euro will be unambiguously canceled.

The ECB currently has sufficient rights to intervene in the Italian public debt market.

Otherwise: The US employment report will be released today at 12.15 London time and the adjusted data of the US GDP at 12.30 London time, which can cause the movement.

GBP/USD pair: We are buying the pound from 1.3330.

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Daily review of EUR / JPY pair as of 05/30/18. Ichimoku Indicator

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EUR / JPY pair

After securing the weekly cloud (Senkou Span A 130.64), the main task for the players to fall was to lower and test the cloud's lower boundary (Senkou Span B weeks 124.67). Bears coped with the task as the target point has been reached. As a result, it is now possible to break through, rebound or even the formation of lights out. The closest benchmarks for the recovery of bullish positions can be 126.84 (the monthly Kijun + main lines of junior timeframes) - 127.95 (daylight Tenkan) - 129 (week Tenkan + day Kijun). If the players on the fall are limited now by the breakout and will not allow the opponent to regain support for important levels, we can expect that they will attempt a breakdown of the weekly cloud (124.67). Overcoming the cloud will create a new large-scale benchmark to reduce.

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Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for May 30, 2018

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Tuesday, the price moved down for the fourth time, breaking the lower fractal level at 1.3299 (red dotted line). On Wednesday, the price can roll back upward. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).

The system of ADX indicators (Figure 1).

On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the GBP / USD pair will move towards the upside with the first goal at the historical resistance level of 1.3299.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for Dow Jones for May 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The Dow Jones has dropped almost 500 points from May 28, 2018 levels as discussed earlier. The index is looking set to break substantially lower and the break below 23,500 levels, which is interim support, would accelerate much lower. Looking into the wave structure again, the Dow Jones Index seems to have resumed its wave (3), which is expected to drop much lower towards 21,000 levels at least. Please note that if the above wave counts hold to be true, prices would remain much below 25,000 levels and would also threaten the last 10 years uptrend! It is because, the 5th of 5th of 5th wave termination point was seen at 26698 levels in January 2018.

Trading plan:

Remain short with stop at 25,500 levels, target is open and much lower. (21000)

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German Consumer Price Index at 08:00 AM EST and US GDP Annualized at 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for May 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index almost takes out resistance at 95.00 levels before giving in to bears yesterday. As seen on the daily chart presented here, the index is forming an engulfing bearish candlestick pattern and should be looking to drop lower at least through 92.70 levels going forward. Please note that the fibonacci 0.382% support is where we are expecting prices to form a higher low, before resuming its uptrend. Looking into the wave counts, the index seems to have terminated its wave (3) as seen here and should begin its corrective phase lower, to terminate into wave (4). As to the time frame, we expect wave (4) termination around June 04-06, before wave (5) can again resume higher into the 98.00 region. Also note that the channel line support is also coming around the same support levels for now.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders might want to remain short with stop above 95.00, targeting 92.50/70 levels respectively.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German Consumer price index at 08:00 AM EST and US GDP Annualized at 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis and trading recommendations for the USD/CHF currency pair as of May 30, 2018

As previously discussed, the USD/CHF currency pair showed us an intense upward movement, where on the way reach the range resistance level of 1.0050 / 1.0100, stopping unquenchable buyers. Currently, the correction phase in the market and the pair have already reached the first value of 0.9850, which reflects the periodic level paired with the Fibo 23.6 weave. It is possible to assume that the bearish sentiment will still be maintained and if the price is fixed below 0.9850, the way to 0.9770 / 0.9720 will open to players.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for EUR/USD for May 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair was not giving up lower until major support break yesterday at 1.1550 levels. The pair managed to take out to fresh lows at 1.1510 levels before bulls took over the rest of the day. As you can see on the daily chart presented here, the pair is now forming a clear engulfing bullish pattern, indicating that the next few days should remain bullish through 1.1950 levels at least. Once prices does manage to test 1.1950-1.2050 resistance zone, we can expect a resumption of bearish trend towards 1.1100-1.1200 levels respectively. Looking into the wave structure, the pair has now managed to complete wave (3) of a larger degree as labelled here and most like to push higher towards wave(4) which should terminate around 1.1950 levels at least. Interim support remains strong at 1.1500 levels now.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain long with stop below 1.1500 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German Consumer Price Index at 08:00 AM EST and US GDP Annualized at 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for May 30, 2018

USD/CAD recently broke above 1.2950 resistance area with a daily close after impulsive bullish non-volatile pressure. This week is going to be quite volatile and interesting for this pair as high impact economic reports and events are going to be held in the US and Canada this week, including CAD Overnight Rate and US NFP and Unemployment Rate.

Today, Canada BOC Rate Statement is going to be held along with Overnight Rate which is expected to be unchanged at 1.25%. The economic event and report is expected to have a great impact on CAD which might lead to certain gains against USD in the process. Though there has not been any news about Rate Hike, unchanged Overnight Rate may lead to short to medium-term bearish gains in the process.

On the USD side, this week Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 190k from the previous figure of 164k, Average Hourly Earnings is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1% and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Though the economic reports are expected to have a positive impact on the market but actual data is going to be the final confirmation in this case. Today Prelim GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 2.3%, Goods Trade Balance report is expected to increase in deficit to -71.2B from the previous figure of -68.3B, Prelim GDP Price Index report is also expected to be unchanged at 2.0% and Prelim Wholesale Inventories report is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3%.

As for the current scenario, CAD is expected to gain momentum for a certain period before USD pushes the price higher in the coming days. As Canada's reports do not have any strong forecasts to attract the market sentiment at this point, USD is expected to gain the momentum in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish gains after the break above 1.29 with a daily close. As for the current structure and breakout retest formation, the price is expected to retrace towards 1.2950 area before showing further bullish momentum with a target towards 1.3120 area in the future. As the price remains above 1.28 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Trade relations between China and the US are again under threat of disruption

The US dollar strengthened on Tuesday and in the afternoon after the release of optimistic data on US consumer confidence, but the risk of trade agreement disruption between the US and China again made investors pay attention to the assets of the refugee, primarily towards the Japanese yen.

According to the report, US consumer confidence in May this year rose after a slight decline in April.

According to the Conference Board, the US consumer confidence index rose to 128.0 points in May after dropping to 125.6 points in April. Economists also expected that the figure would came at 128.0 points. As the Conference Board experts noted, the consumer confidence levels are quite high from the historical point of view, which will positively affect their costs in the short term.

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Production activity in the responsibility zone of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in May had increased. This happened due to growth in production and utilization of production capacities. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the production index in May this year rose to 26.8 points compared to 21.8 points in April. Economists had expected the figure to be 23.2 points.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the main target of the buyers is now the resistance level at 1.1590, on which further upward correction depends, that will lead the trading instrument to larger areas of 1.1690 and 1.1785. In case of another unsuccessful attempt to go beyond the resistance level 1.1590, the pressure on the euro will increase again just like yesterday afternoon. This will return to the market of large sellers expecting the lows of 1.1480 and 1.1410.

Yesterday, it was announced that the trade agreements with China, which were reached after the recent talks, may be violated. The administration of the US President Donald Trump once again took a tough stance towards China, declaring new tariffs on Chinese imports. According to the White House, such steps are necessary in order to prevent Beijing from seizing American technologies.

Most likely, a new list of Chinese goods will be announced on June 15 subject to taxes amounted to 50 billion US dollars. It is also reported that by June 30, the US can announce a number of investment restrictions that will prevent Chinese companies from receiving US technology.

As for the meeting between the leaders of the United States and North Korea, it was reported yesterday that US President Donald Trump will meet with Shinzo Abe on June 4 at the White House. This meeting will take place against the backdrop of preparations for the US summit with North Korea. Also, North Korean representative Kim Yong Chol will meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo this week.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 30/05/2018

Unfortunately, we can not see the end of the political crisis in Italy so far. The nominee Prime Minister Carlo Cottarelli has not presented the composition of his temporary government to the president. In addition, there is a risk that the technical government will not receive a vote of confidence in the parliament. The largest groups such as the Five Star Movement or the League are already announcing that they will not support the government. This makes it very likely that early elections will be announced soon, which may have stabilized the situation and would not deepen the crisis of the markets' confidence in the Italian economy. Theoretically, there is little time to influence the political preferences of Italians who, according to recent surveys, would entrust power to populists from the 5 Stars and Northern League Movement. The dynamics of financial markets shows, however, that one does not have to wait long for topics to reach the headlines of the media. Can fear, however, be an effective tool for practicing politics? Time will tell.

Above all, the very strong increase in the profitability of Italian bonds is worrying, which means that some economists are already warning against the next debt crisis in Europe. Investors are slowly losing confidence in Italian bonds. This may also complicate the plans to leave loose monetary policy for the European Central Bank.

The weaker investment climate is conducive to the strengthening of the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc considered safe harboring. In addition, there is a positive sentiment towards the US currency. The dollar index approached yesterday in the vicinity of local maxima from October-November 2017 running around 95.00 points. Today, important data for USD will be published regarding PCE core inflation and the revision of US GDP for the first quarter of this year, which should support the current Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe as this is the currency pair that is being perceived as a safe-haven during a turmoil and uncertain times. The market fell out of the channel and has found a low at the lower boundary of the technical support zone at the level of 108.09 so far. The bounce from this level is corrective in nature and might indicate only a temporary pull-back towards the levels of 108.81 - 109.10. In order to regain the control over the market the bulls would have to break out back above the level of 109.83 - 110.00. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 107.91 - 107.48 and might be violated very quickly if the Italian crisis gets even worse.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for May 30, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite non-volatile within the bearish bias recently which led the price to reside below 1.3300 area. Ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports from the US, certain bearish impulsive pressure indicates the definite trend pressure in the pair.

Today, the UK BRC Shop Price Index report was published with a greater deficit to -1.1% from the previous value of -1.0%. The worse economic report did not quite help USD to extend its gains whereas the volatility increased at an alarming rate today.

On the USD side, today Prelim GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 2.3%, Goods Trade Balance report is expected to increase in deficit to -71.2B from the previous figure of -68.3B, Prelim GDP Price Index report is also expected to be unchanged at 2.0%, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories report is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3%.

As for the current scenario, forecasts for US economic reports today are quite indecisive though USD is expected to have the upper hand over GBP in the coming days. In the recent meetings of Bank of England, the policies taken are expected to have their impact in the long run without any immediate impact on the current market situation.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing certain bullish rejection in the process which is expected to push lower towards 1.3050 area in the coming days. Though certain Bullish Divergence is being observed in the process but the bullish pressure is expected to be push higher after price bounces off the 1.3050 area in the future. As the price remains below 1.33 with a daily close, the impulsive bearish pressure is expected to continue.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review as of May 30, 2018 for the EUR/USD pair

On Wednesday, the following strong calendar news will come out:

- 08:55 London time. EUR, change in the number of unemployed in Germany (May), expecting for -10K against the previous value of -7K;

- 01:15 London time. USD, change in the number of non-agricultural workers from ADP (May), expecting for 190K against the previous value of 204K;

- 01:30 London time. USD, GDP (q / q) (1 sq.), Expecting for 2.3% against the previous value of 2.3%.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Monday, the price continued to move downward and reached the support line of the rising channel at 1.1540 (white line). Most likely, there will be an upward movement on Wednesday. Reaching the support line for the third time gives a 70% chance of top work. The complex analysis will accurately determine further direction of the price.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).

The system of ADX indicators (Figure 1).

On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by the trend type indicators.

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion.

On Wednesday, the market will move up with the initial target at 1.1664 - a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dotted line).

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for May 30, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, If bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

Any bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) should be watched for a valid SELL entry.S/L should be placed above 0.7100.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 30, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) failed to offer sufficient bullish demand when a descending high was established around the price level of 1.1980.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, significant bearish pressure is being applied since then.

As bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) was maintained to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1420.

The price zone (1.1520-1.1415) is considered a prominent Demand zone to be watched for bullish price action and valid BUY entries. Early signs of bullish rejection have already been expressed around 1.1510 (within the depicted demand zone).

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) for bearish rejection and possible SELL entries if any bullish pullback occurs.

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Global macro overview for 30/05/2018

Today's moods in the markets after yesterday's sale of Italian bonds are a bit calmer. Yesterday's profitability of Italian 10-year olds to 3.35%, today drops below 3.0%, and the spread with German bunds narrows to 267 basis points. The turbulence on the Italian political scene is taking on a routine character, so the markets are going into a waiting mode: in the coming days, inflation and PMI for the Eurozone will be published.

The German unemployment rate has dropped from 5.3% to 5.3% and the unemployment change index (this indicator shows the number of unemployed people in Germany) dropped stronger than expected to -11k versus -10k people. The markets still await the German CPI data for the whole country that will be published at 02:00 pm GMT, but a look at the CPI growth in particular zones suggests that price indices have risen strongly. The monthly dynamics for all zones, for which data was published, reached 0.4-0.7%. So far the data are very encouraging and the Euro bulls will likely take the advantage of this situation.The turbulence on the Italian political scene is taking on a routine character, so the markets are going into a waiting mode: in the coming days, inflation and PMI for the Eurozone will be published.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picutre at the H1 time frame. After the job market data beat the expectations, the EUR/USD rate jumped towards the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1606 and broke it, so the next intraday target is seen at the level of 1.1644 - 1.1651 zone. The immediate support is seen at the level of 1.1580. Strong momentum and stochastic oscillator rising from the oversold levels support the temporary bullish outlook.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 30, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $7.520. Chilean crypto exchange Buda.com has launched in Argentina, initially supporting four cryptocurrencies. Already operating in three other countries, the exchange says Argentina has the potential to become its most important market in the course of a year. The technical picture on Bitcoin looks neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price failed to break the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of a flag to confirm a further downward movement. The downward targets are set at the price of $7.332 and at the price of $7.000.

Support/Resistance

$7.520 – Intraday resistance

$7.375 – Intraday support

$7.332 – Objective target 1

$7.000 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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How will history repeat this time?

EUR / USD

On Tuesday, the single European currency continued its rapid decline even before the opening of the American session. The new prime minister, appointed by the Italian president, Carlo Cottarelli, said that he could give up this appointment which automatically fails the adoption of the budget. And brings the new re-elections as close as possible without changing the electoral legislation that was planned to be adjusted in order to minimize the risk of equality of parliamentary seats in the case of approximately equal votes. If the elections are scheduled on July, this could mean almost complete control of the parliament by eurosceptic parties, which causes investors' anxiety. The euro fell by 86 points and technically entered the 2.5-year range of February 2015 - the summer of 2017, which can be overcome quickly enough to its lower boundary of 1.0500. Earlier, we noted that the current decline in the euro since the middle of April in its technical nature corresponds to the summer of 2014, when the Greek-Cypriot crisis raged in Europe (not without the participation of Italy and Spain themselves). It is very likely that the situation is repeating, but now involves a larger European economies located in the center. For the US and the dollar, this is a very advantageous situation and we do not expect an immediate solution in terms of political crisis.

In the US, the house price index of S&P / Case-Shiller in the 20 largest cities remained at 6.8% YoY in March, with expectations for a decline to 6.5% YoY. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for the May was 128.0, but the indicator was sharply revised down from 128.7 to 125.6 points in April.

Today, European investors can get a small amount of optimism from the German economic data. Retail sales in Germany for April are expected to grow by 0.5-0.7% against -0.6% in March (with a retention of 1.3% YoY). The German import price index is expected to increase by 0.7%. The number of unemployed in Germany for the current month is projected to decline by 10 thousand, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 5.3%. Germany's CPI for May is expected to grow by 0.3% against 0.0% earlier. In France, consumer spending for April may show a contraction of 0.2%. In Spain, the CPI is projected to grow from 1.1% to 1.7% YoY as it gradually emerges on the forefront of the political theater in Europe. So far this is a positive factor, but very soon the inflation growth in problematic countries can cause anxiety in the markets. Yesterday, the 2-year government bonds of Italy soared in profitability of fourfold from 0.888% to 2.738%, and the 10-year-olds increased from 2.68% to 3.18%.

Nevertheless, the US will also released an important data today. The change in the job number in the private sector from ADP in May is projected at 191 thousand versus 204 thousand in April. The second assessment of US GDP for the first quarter is expected to remain unchanged at 2.3%. The commodity trade balance for April is expected to decrease from -68.3 billion dollars to -71.2 billion, and wholesale stocks for April can show an increase of 0.4%.

As a result, we are expecting the decline of the euro to 1.1450 and further to 1.1360.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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GBP/USD analysis for May 30, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3260 According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential bearish flag in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the upward trendline to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of 1.3200.

R1: 1.3320

R2: 1.3380

R3: 1.3440

Support levels:

S1: 1.3200

S2: 1.3140

S3: 1.3080

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/JPY Approaching Support, Watch For A Bounce

GBP/JPY is approaching our support at 143.08 (Horizontal overlap support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension) where we expect price to bounce above this level to our resistance at 146.20 (horizontal pullback resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement). Stochastic (55,5,3) is also seeing a bullish divergence and is approaching its support where a bounce off this level will see a corresponding rise in price.

GBP/JPY is approaching support where we expect a bounce.

Buy above 143.08. Stop loss 141.21. Take profit at 146.20.

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CAD/CHF Testing Resistance, Prepare For A Drop

CAD/CHF is testing its resistance at 0.7610 (horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) where we expect price to drop to its major support at 0.7480 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias. RSI (55) is also approaching resistance where we will see a corresponding drop in price.

CAD/CHF is testing resistance where we can expect a strong drop.

Sell below 0.7610. Stop loss 0.7679. Take profit at 0.7480.

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The pound reached a significant low

GBP / USD

Yesterday did not introduced any news to the British currency market. Due to the pressure from the US dollar, the pound lost 63 points and technically reached the lows of the third week dated June 2016, as the historic referendum on the UK's withdrawal from the EU took place. In the current situation, the pound can only be supported by a breakthrough in the trade agreement between Britain and the EU, or through an increase in rate by the Bank of England, but none of this has yet been outlined. According to the estimates of BRC this morning, the price change in retail stores and fell from -1.0% YoY to -1.1% YoY. In the evening on the US, the jobs increase in the private sector from ADP for May is projected at 191 thousand. The growth in wholesale inventories for April is expected to increase by 0.4%. The second assessment of US GDP for the first quarter is expected to be unchanged at 2.3%, but according to initial estimates, an upward revision to 2.4% is possible. We are looking forward to a further decline in the British currency with the immediate target of 1.3135 / 65.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Analysis of Gold for May 30, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,298.60. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of supply trendline to confirm further upward continuation. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,310.80 and at the price of $1,316.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,307.50

R2: $1,313.00

R3: $1,320.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,294.50

S2: $1,287.10

S3: $1,281.30

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Why is "kangaroo" sad?

AUD / USD

The nearest prospects of the Australian dollar appeared to be most expected from the fundamental positions.The US dollar index rose 0.45% yesterday, while gold corresponds to the closing Monday, iron ore lost 0.85% ($ 65.70 per tonne), and aluminum fell 0.79%. The number of issued permits for new construction in April decreased by 5.0% against the forecast of -2.9%. Also, the United States breaks the most recently reached agreements with China to expand trade, and decided to keep a 25% tariff on Chinese imports with a volume of $50 billion. The Chinese Shanghai Composite index fall today by 1.77%. The Australian S&P / ASX 200 loses 0.59%. We are expecting for further reduction on the "Australian" currency to 0.7440 and in the range of 0.7375 / 85.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 30, 2018

EUR/JPY

The initial targets for this week have already been met, and the EUR/JPY cross still has much room to go southwards. As anticipated, there is now a transitory upwards bounce in the market, but price would resume its downwards journey. The next targets are the demand zones at 125.00 and 124.50.

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There is already a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. This is a bear market, and long trades are not currently logical, owing to a measure of stamina in JPY.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 30, 2018

USD/JPY

This currency trading instrument has been trending downwards and there is now a lot of trading activities around the demand level at 108.50. The current short-term rally is only shallow and may end up being an opportunity to sell short at better prices.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 30, 2018

USD/CHF

The market is now quite choppy. This pair has done nothing significant this week, except a sideways movement in the context of a short-term downtrend. There is a ranging condition in the market. Even a pullback that was seen yesterday was quickly erased, as bears leave their footprints in the market.

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However, a breakout is supposed to happen today or tomorrow, which would most probably favor bears. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the bias is bearish. The Williams' % Range period 20 is not far from the oversold region.

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Burning forecast 05/30/2018

Burning forecast 05/30/2018

EURUSD: Italy has collapsed the euro.

The political crisis in Italy caused a great stir in the markets of Europe on Monday-Tuesday. The yield of Italian government securities rose sharply to 2.5%. Shares of Italian banks fell sharply. The euro fell to 1.1510, touching the global support line of the uptrend.

Do not sell the euro, the points for selling are unattractive.

Buy the euro from 1.1730, stop 1.1685, profit 1.1940.

Soon there will be a new level for buying in the area of 1.1650.

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Trading plan for the European session on May 30 for the EUR/USD

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

Buyers need to get to resistance level 1.1584, but the first test of this level is unlikely to lead to its breakdown. Only binding on the band closer to the second half of the day will be a good signal to an increase in long positions in the euro, based on the updated resistance 1.1636 and 1.1683, where it is recommended to record profits. In case of a decline in the euro in the morning, buying will be relevant after the monthly lows are updated in the area of 1.1482 and 1.1440.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

Unsuccessful consolidation above 1.1584 with the return under this level could lead to a new wave of euro selling, which will aim to break and consolidation below the low of 1.1520 yesterday to support update in the area 1.1482 and 1.1440, where it is recommended to record profits. In the case of growth above 1.1584 in the morning, selling the euro can be on the rebound from 1.1636.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Trading plan for the European session on May 30 for the GBP/USD

To open long positions on GBP/USD it is required:

You can buy the pound only if it breaks and consolidate above 1.3292, which will form a new upward wave with resistance test 1.3336, where it is recommended fixing profits. In the case of a pound drop in the morning, purchases will be relevant for a false breakout in the support area of 1.3243 or a rebound from 1.3202.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Failure to consolidate above 1.3292 will be the first signal to sell the GBP/USD in order to reduce and break the middle of the channel 1.3243, below which the pair can quickly collapse to the area of lows of the month 1.3202 and 1.3146, where it is recommended fixing profits. In the case of growth above 1.3292 in the morning, one can sell the pound on a from rebound of 1.3336.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Strengthening the dollar is the result of Trump's long-term plan

The Budget Committee of the Congress (NWO) conducted a comparative analysis of its own budget implementation forecast for the next decade and a set of budget proposals from the presidential administration. The amendments to the fiscal year 2019 were submitted in February and were considered by the Congress on April 13 and by the end of May, there were promising calculations.

So, the NWO recognizes that the level of federal debt in accordance with the budget of the president, should be equal in 2028. 86% and not 96%, as predicted by the NWO. The deficit of the federal budget should be less by 5.2 trillion, which is achieved, among other things, by a reduction in spending by 3.4 trillion for the declared period.

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Thus, Trump's plan is absolutely concrete and will be carried out despite opposition. Trump intends to significantly reduction costs, which will compensate for the loss of income at the initial stage of the tax reform plus create the most favorable conditions for doing business in the US, encouraging companies to repatriate capital and productive capacity where the rest of the world would partially finance the transition period. This is expressed in the strongest US pressure on major trading partners.

The program is complex and even if it has weaknesses, it has a chance of success. It is the deep study of details and the strict implementation of the plan that underlies the current growth in demand for the dollar, as a number of key steps to implement this program materialize right before our eyes.

Sanctionary pressure on China and the European Union will be maintained precisely on American terms, as it is the result of implementing a long-term plan rather than spontaneous emotions. In the future, the world will be fragmented more and more, and capital will seek safe harbors amid growing geopolitical and financial risks. It is exactly such a harbor that the United States should become.

In Italy, the failure of negotiations on the creation of a coalition increases the risk of chaos not only in the country, but also in the eurozone as a whole. The victory of Eurosceptics increases the risks of the demands on the EU to write off part of the Italian debt and change the rule of the budget deficit and the likelihood of Italy's withdrawal from the European Union in the event of a refusal increases many times. In fact, the euro area is in a serious political crisis that plays against the euro and is in the hands of the US dollar.

There is growth in yield spread. Despite the fact that the growth of yields on US bonds was braked in the last week, the general dynamics of doubts does not cause it. The 10-year old Treasury on Wednesday morning had a profitability of 2.86%, while similar German papers reported only 0.263.

The growth of the yield spread returns to the life of the Kerry-Trade strategy, where the US dollar is the yield currency, not the currencies of commodity or developing countries, as it was in the recent past.

Attempts by the ECB by way of "leaks" last Friday to repay the withdrawal of capital did not lead to success. The players simply did not pay any attention to the insider. This means the issue of the pace of completion of the repurchase program under current conditions is irrelevant. This conclusion creates a strong pressure on the euro in favor of the dollar.

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There is no reason to expect that the dollar's growth in the short term will end.

The week will end with the publication of a number of key macroeconomic parameters. Today ADP will present a report on the level of employment in the private sector for May, a second preliminary estimate of GDP growth rates and price indices for the first quarter, as well as the "Beige Book" of the Fed will be published. On Thursday, we will pay attention to the publication of April data on personal incomes and expenditures, and Friday will bring the May report on the labor market. Forecasts are favorable, both nonfarm payrolls and general wages are expected, positive expectations will support demand for the dollar until the end of the week.

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The growth of the world economy is under threat

Political instability in Italy and Spain continues to exert pressure on European investors, as well as on the rate of the European currency.

The coming to power of a coalition of Eurosceptics in Italy called into question the existence of this country within the European Union. On this wave, investors significantly reduced interest in buying risky assets and the euro remains under the strongest pressure which could lead to the exit of the country from the EU by the type of British Brexit. In addition, the events in Spain also pour oil, as they say, into the fire. The vote of no confidence in the government of M. Rajoy from the side of the president of the country led to the government crisis, which, in conjunction with the Italian, is shaking the European political "boat".

As for the dynamics of the Euro-currency, at the moment, it is completely dependent on two factors - the political instability in Europe and the strengthening of the US dollar's position due to the expectation of the further process of raising interest rates by the Fed. Given this, we believe that the euro will continue to decline in the short term, paired with the US dollar.

A similar picture is observed in the GBP/USD pair. Despite the fact that the continental European crisis does not directly concern the UK, the unresolved situation surrounding the country's withdrawal from the EU, as well as the actual beginning of the trade war between the US and China, will exert pressure on the world economy, including Britain, which already feels a downward impulse.

Yesterday, the US reported that on June 15, a list of goods will be announced for which import duties will be raised by 25% for a total of $ 50 billion. In addition, it was announced that restrictions will be imposed on the investment activities of US companies in China. This news shows that the talks between Washington and Beijing failed and although this morning, there was news that a new delegation from the United States is traveling to Beijing, it looks like nothing can stop the trade war.

Given the fact that the economic rivalry between the US and China turns into a trade war, it can be said that this will probably seriously damage the global economy, which means that the demand for risky assets will continue to fall therefore putting pressure on the Aussie, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars. There may be pressure on the a Russian ruble due to the possible continuation of the correction of prices for crude oil. The euro and sterling will suffer not only from their internal histories, but also from the external factor of the trade war. It is likely that in this situation, the yen and the Swiss franc, as assets of a safe haven, will also benefit.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair remains in the short-term downtrend. We expect that it will continue to decline in the wake of the upcoming interest rate rises in the States in June, as well as against the backdrop of political events taking place in Italy and Spain. On this wave, the pair may fall to 1.1440 after overcoming the 1.1525 mark.

The USDCAD pair is trading above the level of 1.3000. The pair may continue to rise against the background of a possible weakening of crude oil prices. On this wave, we expect it to rise to 1.3100.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 30, 2018

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The bias of the EUR/JPY pair on the 4-hour chart is still bearish. This has already been spotted by the price move in a downward sloping channel and below moving average. As we see there is a Divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator and the price. Because of this fact, the pair is likely to make correction to upward channel level before the price gets back to the down side again.

(Disclaimer)

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Bitcoin analysis for 30/05/2018

Two Russian financial institutions are to test the regulatory platform, which aims to make national ICOs more transparent and safe for traditional investors. The Russian NSD (National Settlement Depository) has announced that it is working with Sberbank CIB to test the ICO emissions platform launched in April by the Bank of Russia.

According to the announcement, the company called Level One will launch token sales in the test environment, for which Sberbank will act as the coordinator of the issue and the main investor. In turn, NSD will serve as a depository, registering and settling transactions, as well as securing assets. Companies claim that the platform will ultimately provide the transparency that would reduce the risk for traditional investors in the token issuance process. The test, along with feedback from the central bank, will help you improve the platform before it can be put into service: "Sberbank CIB believes that the Russian ICO market is very promising. Many Sberbank clients are interested in this type of investment, and we, after the entry into force of the relevant legal framework, plan to actively promote this service. We will be one of the factors driving the institutionalization and popularization of this type of transaction" - says Igor Bulantsev, senior vice president of Sberbank and head of Sberbank CIB. Eddie Astanin, chairman of the board of NSD, said that the ultimate goal of the project is to allow the emergence of a new type of asset for investors and the trading of digital assets on the secondary market.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the price made a Hammer candlestick formation at the level of $6, 984, it bounced out of the falling wedge and broke out above the technical resistance at the levels of $7,247 and $7, 435. So far the market has stopped just below the weekly pivot at the level of $7,582, but it looks like the bulls might want to test the golden trend line resistance from below. This means the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $7,890.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for March 30, 2018

The Dollar index has reached the October 2017 highs and the weekly Kumo (cloud). This is a strong resistance area that justifies a pull back that is long overdue for the Dollar.

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Black line - horizontal resistance

The Dollar index is in a short-term bullish trend. Price is above both the tankan- and kijun-sen indicators. The weekly candle has just entered inside the weekly Kumo. Now trading around 94.70, a weekly close below 94.15 will signal that a rejection has happened and a reversal is starting. If the weekly candle manages to hold above 94.20 we could see more upside although this is the least likely scenario for me. As long as price is above 92, I believe longer-term bulls will be safe. Bears need to break this level in order to regain full control of the trend again.

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Trading plan for 30/05/2018

The night on the currency market was quite calm as none of the major currencies changes the value to USD by more than 0.2. EUR/USD challenges the support zone around the October minimum, USD/JPY fights to preserve the growth structure by defending support 108.50-70. In the stock markets very negative moods. Yesterday on Wall Street, which is still stronger than Europe, there were declines of 0.5-1.5%. Futures on SP500 is at 2692 points. The Asian stock exchanges: Hang Seng, Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite are roughly 1.5% down. 10Y US debt yield increases by several bp, but is at 2.82%, 30 bps at the local highs. Despite the increased risk aversion and the unexpected return of fear of a new version of the debt crisis, the gold rate is not able to return over USD 1,300. The WTI barrel is valued at USD 66.7.

On Wednesday 30th of May, the event calendar is busy in important news releases. The event of the day is the Bank of Canada interest rate decision (no change expected), but there are important data releases from the US (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Goods Trade Balance and GDP), Germany (CPI, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Change), Eurozone (Consumer Confidence data), Switzerland (KOF Economic Barometer data) and France (Consumer Spending and GDP).

EUR/USD analysis for 30/05/2018:

The first portion of the data was released this morning: the German Retail Sales data beat the estimates of 0.5% with the figure of 2.3% (-0.4% prior). nevertheless, the Import Price Index data were worse than expected as they were released at the level of 0.6% while the market participants expected 0.7% increase after 0.0% figure a month ago.

There are more important data coming from the various economies today, so it might be a violate day on the marekts.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the daily time frame. The exchange rate reached October bottom at 1.1550 which, given the strongly sold out market, may induce some investors to take profits. It is not possible to talk about a greater rebound as long as the downward trend line at 1.1710 is not broken and the whole zone of local highs 1.1725-50 strengthened by the level of 23.6% Fibo retracement started a month ago. Earlier, they would operate as 1.16 and 1.1620 as resistance. Breaking through yesterday's low would allow extending end the drops to the 200-week average and half of the upward trend from 2017 to 2018.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for March 30, 2018

Gold price is still inside the bearish channel in a bearish Daily trend as price remains below the Daily Kumo (cloud). Gold price showed some strength signs yesterday but bulls were not able to break out and above the bearish channel. Breaking above $1,305-$1,307 will open the way for a bigger bounce towards cloud resistance around $1,320-30.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price has stopped the decline at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rise from $1,236. Gold price is ready for a big move higher at least towards cloud resistance at $1,320-30 area. Price touched the daily kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) yesterday but got rejected. It is important for bulls to break above $1,305.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs as of May 30

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, we expect the movement towards the level of 1.1453. For the GBP / USD pair, the continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 1.3195. For the of USD / CHF pair, the price is in an equilibrium state. For the USD / JPY pair, the continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 108.14. For the EUR / JPY pair, the continuation of the development of the downward structure from May 22 is expected after the breakdown of 124.83. For the GBP / JPY pair, the continuation of the movement towards the bottom is possible after the breakdown of 142.73.

Forecast for May 30:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1684, 1.1650, 1.1593, 1.1533, 1.1453 and 1.1397. Here, we expect the movement towards the level of 1.1453. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 1.1397. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation as well as a rollback to the top.

Going into correction is possible after the breakdown of 1.1593. In this case, the target is 1.1650. The range of 1.1650 - 1.1684 is the key support for the downward structure. Before reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of May 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1595 Take profit: 1.1650

Buy 1.1652 Take profit: 1.1684

Sell: 1.1530 Take profit: 1.1455

Sell: 1.1450 Take profit: 1.1400

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3415, 1.3388, 1.3346, 1.3306, 1.3229, 1.3195 and 1.3123. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure from May 14. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.3229 - 1.3195. In this case, the target is 1.3123. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3306 - 1.3346. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3388. The level of 1.3415 is a potential for the top. Before reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward cycle from May 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3306 Take profit: 1.3344

Buy: 1.3348 Take profit: 1.3388

Sell: 1.3227 Take profit: 1.3196

Sell: 1.3193 Take profit: 1.3125

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For the of USD / CHF pair, the key levels in the scale of H1 are: 0.9996, 0.9965, 0.9950, 0.9915, 0.9881, 0.9854 and 0.9820. Here, the price is in an equilibrium state. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 0.9915. In this case, the target is 0.9881. In the area of 0.9881 - 0.9854 is short-term downward movement and also the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 0.9820. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the area of 0.9950 - 0.9965. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9996. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9950 Take profit: 0.9964

Buy: 0.9967 Take profit: 0.9992

Sell: 0.9913 Take profit: 0.9883

Sell: 0.9878 Take profit: 0.9855

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 109.98, 109.60, 109.15, 108.84, 108.14, 107.64, 106.99 and 106.58. Here, we follow the downward structure of May 21. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 108.14. In this case, the target is 107.64. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 107.62 must be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 106.99. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 106.58. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 108.84 - 109.15. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 109.60. The level of 109.98 is a potential value for the top. Before reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.84 Take profit: 109.12

Buy: 109.17 Take profit: 109.60

Sell: 108.12 Take profit: 107.66

Sell: 107.62 Take profit: 107.00

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3204, 1.3159, 1.3093, 1.3049, 1.2963, 1.2922, 1.2868 and 1.2809. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 22. Short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.3049 - 1.3093. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3159. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.3204. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2963 - 1.2922. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2868. This level is the key support for the upward trend.

The main trend is upward from May 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3050 Take profit: 1.3090

Buy: 1.3095 Take profit: 1.3157

Sell: 1.2961 Take profit: 1.2924

Sell: 1.2920 Take profit: 1.2868

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7543, 0.7521, 0.7505, 0.7471, 0.7456, 0.7435 and 0.7404. Here, we follow the downward structure of May 22. The development of the downward trend is expected after passing the price of the noise range of 0.7471 - 0.7456. In this case, the target is 0.7435. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 0.7404. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7505 - 0.7521. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7543. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7505 Take profit: 0.7520

Buy: 0.7522 Take profit: 0.7540

Sell: 0.7455 Take profit: 0.7435

Sell: 0.7433 Take profit: 0.7408

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For the EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 128.16, 127.52, 126.39, 124.83, 123.89, 123.17 and 121.82. Here, we follow the downward structure of May 22. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 124.83. In this case, the target is 123.89. In the area of 123.89 - 123.17 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 121.82. The movement towards this level is expected after the breakdown of 123.15.

Going into correction is expected after the breakdown of 126.40. Here, the target is 127.52. The range of 127.52 - 128.16 is the key support for the downward trend. Before reaching this level, we expect the formation of potential initial conditions for the top.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 126.40 Take profit: 127.50

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 124.80 Take profit: 123.90

Sell: 123.15 Take profit: 121.85

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 147.10, 146.27, 145.04, 144.29, 142.73, 141.63, 140.17 and 139.29. Here, we follow the downward structure of May 18. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 142.73. In this case, the target is 141.63. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The break at the level of 141.60 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 140.17. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 139.29. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 144.29 - 145.04. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 146.27. The range of 146.27 - 147.10 is the key support for the downward structure. Before reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.30 Take profit: 145.02

Buy: 145.08 Take profit: 146.25

Sell: 142.70 Take profit: 141.65

Sell: 141.60 Take profit: 140.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com