Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for May 1, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite impulsive, trading lower since it bounced off the 1.4375 area recently. This led the price towards 1.37 support area. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.37 and it is expected to proceed much lower in the coming days. Ahead of the upcoming NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate report on Friday which are likely to reveal upbeat readings, USD is already quite strong against GBP. Today, the UK Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published with a decrease to 53.9 from the previous figure of 54.9 which was expected to have a slight decrease to 54.8, Net Lending to Individuals decreased to 4.2B from the previous figure of 5.5B which was expected to be at 4.9B, M4 Money Supply also decreased to -1.4% from the previous value of -0.4% which was expected to increase to 0.2%, and Mortgage Approvals report was published as expected with a decrease to 63k from the previous figure of 64k.

On the other hand, today US Final Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to remain unchanged at 56.5, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 58.4 from the previous figure of 59.3, Construction Spending report is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1%, ISM Manufacturing Prices is expected to increase to 78.3 from the previous figure of 78.1, and Total Vehicle Sales report is expected to decrease to 17.1M from the previous figure of 17.5M.

As for the current scenario, GBP has been affected by the downbeat economic reports today which pushed the price more downward amid impulsive bearish pressure. On the other hand, the forecasts for the upcoming USD economic reports are quite mixed which might lead to certain correction and higher volatility in the pair. To sum up, certain correction is expected to persist in the pair for a short period before the price pushes much lower, adding the gains on the USD side in the future.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing the below the 1.37 price area which was an important level of support. The pair is having a Bearish Divergence since the price bounced off the 1.4275 area, the bearish pressure is currently expected to push the price much lower in the coming days with a target towards 1.3300-20 support area. As the price remains below the resistance area of 1.3850-1.3950 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 1, 2018

EUR/JPY

Last week, this cross started coming downwards. Although the ongoing bias was bullish, bulls were obviously getting weaker and weaker, showcasing their lack of interest in pushing the price upwards. A "sell" signal has already been generated, and there is now the Bearish Confirmation pattern on the 4-hour chart.

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As predicted, the recent bearish correction has eventually turned out to be something significant. The price has moved below the supply zone at 132.00, and further bearish movement is possible, which may enable the price to reach the demand zones at 131.50 and 131.00.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 1, 2018

USD/JPY

There is the Bullish Confirmation pattern on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart. The price traded in a range at the end of last week, and also traded sideways on Monday (all in the context of an uptrend). The supply level at 109.50 has been tested and it could be re-tested again. It could even be briefly breached to the upside before the trend reverses.

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Owing to the current bullish efforts in the market, the price could go further upwards. However, it would be temporary because the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week and for the month of May.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 1, 2018

USD/CHF

This pair went upwards on Monday. It has gained over 400 pips in the last three weeks; and this is just the beginning because the northward journey would continue as a result of the stamina in USD. The next targets are the resistance level at 0.9950 and, ultimately, the resistance level at 1.0000, which is the major resistance level (a psychological level).

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There is the Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, which means further bullish movement in favor of buyers. Short trades are not currently recommended, owing to the stamina in USD, which is visible in the markets.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 01, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9846. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 0.9846 to a top around 0.9919-0.9935. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.9846 followed by 0.9788, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.9953. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9879 and 0.9953; for that, we expect a range of 74 pips (0.9953 - 0.9879). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.9919, which coincides with a ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100) and (50), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.9953, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 0.9987 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9788.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 01, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 0.7089, while minor resistance is seen at 0.7049. Support is found at the levels of 0.6955 and 0.6906. Pivot point has already been set at the level of 0.7049. Equally important, the NZD/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 0.7049, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair continued moving downwards from the level of 0.7049. The pair fell to the bottom around 0.7010 from the level of 0.7049. In consequence, the NZD/USD pair broke support, which turned into resistance at the level of 0.7010. The level of 0.7089 is expected to act as the major support today. We expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend towards the target levels of 0.6955 and 0.6906. On the uptrend: If the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7010, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7010. So, the market will rise further to 0.7049 and 0.7089 to return to the daily resistance. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.7089 in order to form the double top.

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Global macro overview for 01/05/2018

The European Union strongly criticized the decision announced in March by President Donald Trump to introduce tax duties on steel and aluminum products imported into the United States. The Commission issued a statement on Tuesday morning after the US announced an extension to June 1 of the EU's exemption from import duties on steel and aluminum.

EU pointed out that the overcapacity in the steel and aluminum sectors is not the result of EU action. On the contrary, in recent months, "the EU has engaged at all possible levels (in talks) with the United States and other partners to find a solution to this problem "- the EU raport stressed. The EU also indicated its readiness to discuss current issues related to market access, but also stressed that as a longtime partner and friend of the United States, it does not intend to negotiate "under threat". European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmstroem has been in contact with US Secretary of Commerce Wilburek Ross and US Sales Representative Robert Lighthizer in recent weeks. These discussions will be continued.

In reaction to the protectionist decisions of the White House, the EU announced the introduction of retaliatory duties on goods exported by the US, including, among others, products such as bourbon and Harley Davidson motorcycles. They come from states in which the Republicans are waiting for a hard break in the elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate in November of the current year. American trade sanctions were the subject of talks between President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel who visited the White House last week. Mexico and Canada are currently renegotiating with the United States the historic NAFTA deal on free trade with the United States. Argentina, Brazil and Australia reached "essentially an agreement with the US" - avoiding additional duties on their steel and aluminum products and agreed to a quota system for these products.

The US duties of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum already includes exports to the US from Russia, China, Japan and other countries. Announced by President Trump in March this year, the decision resulted in falls in the stock markets, protests by heads of companies, whose production depends on these raw materials and the threat of retaliation by US trading partners.

According to experts, the decision of President Trump was the fulfillment of the election promise for the electorate of the so-called "the rust belt" (mainly the Midwest USA), in which competition from cheaper steel and aluminum from abroad caused a breakdown in industrial production and high unemployment. The protectionist decision of the American president was supported by representatives of American steel and aluminum producers, the AFL / CIO trade union traditionally associated with the Democratic Party and a few legislators from the opposition Democratic Party, mainly from the Belt of Rust states.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a form of a Double Top around the level of 267.90 and then felt towards the support at the level of 264.12 (almost hit). The momentum is clearly below its fifty level and still points to the downside, so the lower levels might be tested pretty soon. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 260. 84.

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Global macro overview for 01/05/2018

At the level of 53.9 points, the UK manufacturing PMI index is now on the lowest levels it has been since late 2016 - and unlike a large part of recent UK macroeconomic data, we can't blame the weather this time. With new orders reportedly growing more slowly, it's possible that the combination of a slowdown in Eurozone economic activity and a slightly stronger pound are beginning to influence the other economies.

Manufacturing only makes up around 10% of the UK economy, so it will be Thursday's services PMI that will have a much greater bearing on Bank of England policy. Regardless of the final outcome, the interest rate hike this May from the Bank of England is now even further off the table as there is not enough macroeconomic justification for such a move.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The technical support at the level of 1.3711 has been broken and the market has made the new local low at the level of 1.3666.The market conditions are now extremely oversold, moreover, there is a clear bullish divergence between the price and the momentum present at this time frame. Both of this clues are indicating a possible corrective pull-back towards the level of 1.3711 or even 1.3780.

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GBP/USD analysis for May 01, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3666. Anyway, according to the M30 time – frame, I found a successful rejection of the support trendline, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.3775.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3800

R2: 1.3836

R3: 1.3880

Support levels:

S1: 1.3720

S2: 1.3678

S3: 1.3640

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for May 1, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred Yesterday.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, a bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.7000 and 0.6860.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) (significant supply zone) for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7260.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 1, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

The depicted Multiple-Top pattern needs the recent bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be maintained on a daily basis. Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990 then 1.1880.

Trade Recommendation:

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2190-1.2200 for a low-risk sell entry.

T/P levels should be located around 1.2070-1.1990 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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EUR/JPY analysis for May 01, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 131.81. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a fake breakout of 2-day low at the price of 131.85, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities.

Resistance levels:

R1: 132.45

R2: 132.83

R3: 133.13

Support levels:

S1: 131.76

S2: 131.47

S3: 131.09

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 01, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8.828. The Japanese financial regulator has confirmed that so far eight companies have expressed the intention to withdraw their applications to operate cryptocurrency exchanges. Meanwhile, about 100 more companies are seeking to enter the market. The technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that price broke a rising wedge in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that price is trading inside of the downwrad channel and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $8.616 and at the price of $8.322.

Support/Resistance

$9.000 – Intraday resistance

$8.810– Intraday support

$8.616 – Objective target 1

$8.322 – Objective target 2

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Bitcoin analysis for 01/05/2018

In a patent application published by the United States Patent and Trademark Office, the MasterCard company describes a method by which nodes can connect and verify the content of a particular Blockchain. For MasterCard, it is important to increase the speed with which nodes storing a copy of the network transaction history can be updated. MasterCard first filed its application in October 2016, explaining that "Blockchain can store thousands, millions, and even billions of transaction records in a huge number of different blocks. Although this is part of its unchanging nature, it also means that Blockchain can "contain thousands, millions or billions of blocks, each of which must be verified by a new node before generating and adding new blocks to Blockchain".

"Verification of such a large number of blocks can take a considerable amount of time [...] Therefore, there is a need for a technical solution increases the speed at which you can navigate through Blockchain for verification "- the company claims. For this purpose, the proposed system would include so-called "fast track flags" included in the block headers. Mastercard nodes will then be able to use these flags to scan Blockchain content more quickly. It is worth noting that the application also discusses the use of a specially configured Blockchain that would act as a software equivalent for nodes and would help in further streamlining the process.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the black trend line at the level of $9,126 and now is heading towards the level of $8,706. The key technical support is still seen at the level of $8,355, but the current price action does not look impulsive actually. It is quite possible that instead of five waves to the upside, the market will perform only three waves up and will continue with the downtrend.

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Trading plan for 01/05/2018

The markets maintain the trading ranges established yesterday, so not much has happened overnight. EUR/USD is close to 1.2061 support, GBP/USD is trading below the level of 1.3780 and USD/JPY is close to the highs at 109.46.

On Tuesday 1st of May, the Europe and much of Asia are out for holiday. The main macro event is US ISM manufacturing data release, but the UK will post the Manufacturing PMI as well. Later on, Canada will present the GDP for the first quarter. Overnight, traders will get Caixin PMI in China, where a moderate decline in the manufacturing index should be expected as was the case with the official PMIs released yesterday morning.

AUD/USD analysis for 01/05/2018:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5% as widely expected. The RBA point of view expressed in the statement is the same as we have consistently seen with the recent inflation report being described as "in line with the Bank's expectations". That would tend to suggest that RBA will remain cautious around the inflation outlook and forecast 1.75% for 2018. Given that the trimmed mean printed 0.5% for the March quarter, the implication is that the RBA does not expect any marked lift in the quarterly pace through 2018. In fact, relative to six months ago tightening financial conditions; slowing housing markets; and a slowdown in jobs growth gives them even more scope to remain cautious.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Despite the extremely oversold conditions, the market has broken above the technical support at the level of 0.7524 after the RBA decision was announced. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7502 and if broken, then AUD will be at the lower level since December 2017. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 0.7578.

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Burning forecast 05/01/2018

Burning forecast 05/01/2018

EURUSD: The downward trend is not canceled.

The euro remains in the state of a downward trend. The key level is down to 1.2055.

Key upward level 1.2140

Important event: Trump extended until June 1 the decision on the issue of preferential duties on steel and aluminum for the EU, Canada and Mexico - until an agreement is reached.

Looking forward- the Fed meeting is scheduled on Wednesday.

Sell euro from 1.2115 stop at 1.2150, profit at 1.2000

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for May 1, 2018

The Dollar index remains inside the bullish channel. Trend remains bullish. Our upside targets have been achieved. Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. There are some warning signs as we noted in our previous analysis but there is no reversal confirmation yet.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Green line - long-term support

Black line - bearish divergence

The Dollar index has short-term support at 91.70 and next at 91.40. Price is above the 4-hour cloud. Trend remains bullish as long as price is above 90.50. The RSI and the Stochastic are diverging and provide some warning signals to bulls. A pullback is imminent. I prefer to be neutral or slightly bearish at current levels and not bullish. Looking for at least a pullback towards 91.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for May 1, 2018

Gold price is still in a down trend. Price remains below the $1,320-25 resistance area that if broken will be the first reversal signal. Support remains at $1,300-$1,310. Gold medium-term trend remains neutral as price is still inside the $1,365-$1,300 trading range. Gold price is showing bullish divergence signs. I expect Gold to provide a big bounce higher.

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Blue lines - trading range

Red line - resistance

Black lines - bullish divergence

Short-term resistance is found at $1,317 and most importantly at $1,321. Price got rejected at the 4-hour Kijun-sen indicator (yellow line) yesterday. Bulls need to break above the kijun-sen and the red downward sloping trend line to start a bounce towards $1,332 at least. Downside is limited. I expect price to start a reversal to the upside from $1,310-$1,300 area.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 1, 2018

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EUR/NZD remains trapped in a minor corrective rally, but it should just be a matter of time before renewed downside pressure sets in for a decline closer to the 1.7012 - 7.7032 area to complete wave ii/ and set the stage for a new strong rally in wave iii/ towards 1.7474 and higher towards 1.8473.

R3: 1.7227

R2: 1.7202

R1: 1.7180

Pivot: 1.7125

S1: 1.7082

S2: 1.7052

S3: 1.7012

Trading recommendation:

Our close stop at 1.7170 was hit for a small loss of 34 pips. We will wait for wave ii/ near completion at 1.7012 before buying EUR again.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 1, 2018

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We continue to look for a little more downside closer to 131.47 to complete wave i of C. Once wave i is complete a correction to 132.55 will be expected, from here the next decline in wave iii towards at least 129.35 should be seen.

The ideal target for wave C of (E) is seen at 124.90.

R3: 132.55

R2: 132.38

R1: 132.15

Pivot:131.90

S1: 131.70

S2: 131.47

S3: 131.06

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 132.85 and we will move our stop lower to 132.60. We will take half profit at 131.55.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 01, 2018

Despite a thin liquidity in the markets on Monday, the greenback is looking to break above last Friday's highs and now it aims to test the resistance zone of 92.62. As we can see on the H1 chart, USDX already formed three fractals in the lows reached on Friday and Monday respectively. However, if such levels give up, then it can plummet to test the 200 SMA on H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 91.25 / 92.62

H1 chart's support levels: 90.46 / 89.36

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.25, take profit is at 92.62 and stop loss is at 90.86.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 01, 2018

The pair is consolidating the structure to the downside, following a breakout made below the 1.3768 level. There is a rebound taking in place around 1.3707, as the bulls are trying to gather momentum in order to perform a corrective move. If that happens, the upside should be limited by the 200 SMA on H1 chart. MACD indicator is entering the positive territory, calling for a rebound.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3838 / 1.3902

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3768 / 1.3707

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3768, take profit is at 1.3707 and stop loss is at 1.3831.

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Burning forecast 04/30/2018

Burning forecast 04/30/2018

EURUSD: Ready for a new wave of declining.

The downward trend of the euro is not canceled. The cancellation signal is the breakthrough of the euro above 1.2244.

Potentially a new decline to last week's low at 1.2055 with an attempt to go lower.

Sell the euro from 1.2150, stop at 1.2195, profit at 1.2000

Alternative: with growth above 1.2110 - waiting for a new signal.

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