BITCOIN Analysis for April 12, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently, leading the price to reside above $7,500 with a single daily move that indicates the current market sentiment. Having Bullish Divergence along the way, bitcoin suddenly pushed higher with an engulfing candle which was quite remarkable indeed. The price has currently violated the dynamic level resistance of 20 EMA which indicates the average market momentum has shifted quite well towards the bullish side. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to proceed higher towards $8,500 price area in the coming days. As the price remains above $5,000-5,500 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 12, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.995. The largest bank in the United States, JP Morgan Chase, has found itself the subject of a federal class action lawsuit this week. The complaint alleges that after hindering customers from buying cryptocurrencies, the bank has charged enthusiasts extra fees and higher interest rates. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the Daily time - frame, I found that the price did a successful breakout of falling wedge pattern and 10-day balance, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a oversold condition on RSI oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. Projected target is set at the price of $8.800.

Support/Resistance

$7.995 – Intraday resistance

$7.486– Intraday support

$8.800– Objective target

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Analysis of Gold for April 12, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,364.80. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I found a fake breakout of resistance in the background, which is a sign that buying got trapped. I also found a bearish flip on stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,322.40.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,365.95

R2: $1,378.70

R3: $1,392.13

Support levels:

S1: $1,339.75

S2: $1,326.33

S3: $1,313.56

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 12, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.4144. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a confirmed bullish flag in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average osicllator, which is a sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.4245 and at the price of 1.4310.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4215

R2: 1.4250

R3: 1.4277

Support levels:

S1: 1.4150

S2: 1.4125

S3: 1.4090

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 12/04/2018

Inflationary pressure is mounting in the United States. In March, the CPI index increased to 2.4% y/y from 2.2% y/y one month earlier (in line with the forecast). The base indicator jumped to 2.1% (the highest level for a year). In February it was 1.7%. This is the largest monthly acceleration in this size since January 2011. Similar historical episodes predicted the continuation of the upward trend in inflation in the US in the coming quarters, also on the indicator based on consumption expenditure (PCE). The economists expect PCE inflation to accelerate to 2.0% in March and it should be maintained above this barrier until the end of the year. In the summer, this level will probably also reach the PCE index in the baseline. This supports the scenario of maintaining the central bank's hawkish attitude towards monetary policy with the possibility of holding a total of 4 interest rate increases (25 basis points each) this year. This was also the tone of the report from the Federal Reserve March meeting published yesterday.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still consolidating in a tight zone between the levels of 266.81 - 262.70 in overbought market conditions. The gap between the levels of 268.89 - 270.30 hasn't been filled yet as well, which might be a problem for the bulls as the momentum is hovering around its fifty level, indicating a rather neutral market conditions. The key technical support and a major level to the downside is still seen at the level of 252.93.

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Global macro overview for 12/04/2018

The minutes of the last Fed meeting contains a lot of new information. It is a bit unexpected because the document contains a description of the discussion at the policy meeting crowned with a press conference and new macro projections. As a result, the dollar is gaining quite notably due to the fact that some decision makers believe that cooling of the economy may be needed and this should be reflected in the communication with the market. The optimism regarding the pace of growth in the rest of the year and expectations for the inflation rate rise were also repeated. The scale of the positive impact of tax cuts on the real sphere remains unknown. Hazard was defined as the protectionist impulses of the White House and the potential escalation of trade wars, however, it was emphasized that the current barriers (read duty on steel and aluminum) are marginal to the whole economic processes.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market conditions are oversold, so the price is now trying to bounce higher towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 89.82. Only a sustained breakout above this level would open the road towards the next important technical resistance at the level of 90.18 and 90.59. On the other hand, if the supply side will win this battle, the next technical support is seen at the level of 88.94, just at the edge of the main channel.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for April 12, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

In general, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 remains a significant supply zone to offer a valid SELL entry during the current bullish pullback. S/L should be placed above 0.7450.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7200 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 12, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100-1.2200 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2075 was expressed on the chart. allowing more time for bullish advancement provided that the current bullish persistence above the price level of 1.2250 is maintained on Monthly basis.

Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 28.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains bearish below the price levels of 1.2400 unless obvious daily bullish support is offered around the price level of 1.2200.

The bullish scenario is considered a low probability after the recent bearish breakdown of 1.2300 took place on April 3.

Moreover, the depicted Multiple-Top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis.

Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 12, 2018

EUR/JPY

Price has risen by 130 pips this week, to test supply zone at 132.50. There is currently a shallow bearish retracement which follows the test of the supply zone, and the bearish retracement should be contained at the demand zone of 131.00 (a worst-case scenario). The market is supposed to go upwards from here.

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The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is not yet below the level 50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Long trades are recommended because pullbacks may be temporary.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 12, 2018

USD/JPY

The USD/CHF pair has so far rejected any pull of gravity. A rise in volatility is in the offing and it will most likely be in favor of bulls (given what price is currently doing). The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, but the RSI period 14 is not clearly above the level 50. Price is expected to go further upwards, reaching other supply levels at 107.50 and 108.00.

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The market is quiet now – not having done much so far in this week. However, the current pause in market activity cannot go on indefinitely. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have certain impact on the market.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 12, 2018

USD/CHF

This pair has started going upwards and it would soon reach the resistance level at 0.9650, which would be breached to the upside as price goes towards another resistance level at 0.9700. There is a "buy" signal in the market, and a northward journey is much anticipated when momentum returns to the market.

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There is a slight Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The William's % Range period 20 is now going into the overbought territory. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56. This means price would go further upwards.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 12, 2018

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USD/JPY is under pressure and expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair retreated from 107.05 (the previous high) and broke below its 20-period moving average after touching the 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Hence, as long as 107.25 is not surpassed, look for a return to 106.60 (lows of April 9 and 10). A break below of this level would trigger another decline to 106.40.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 107.25, take profit at 106.60

Resistance levels: 107.50, 107.75, and 108.00. Support levels: 106.60, 106.40, and 106.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 12, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is bouncing off its nearest support at 0.9565 and seems likely to challenge the next resistance at 0.9635 in sight. A bullish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Therefore, as long as 0.9565 is not broken, look for further advance to 0.9635 and 0.9650 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9565, take profit at 0.9635.

Resistance levels: 0.9635, 0.9650, and 0.9685

Support levels: 0.9535, 0.9510, and 0.9485.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 12, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair stands firmly above its key level at 151.25, representing a horizontal overlap support. The relative strength index is turning up, and calls for a new rise. Last but not least, the rising 50-period moving average indicates that the prices may still have upside potential to go. Hence, as long as 151.25 holds on the downside, look for a new rise to 152.25 and 152.60 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.25, 152.60, and 153.15.

Support levels: 150.90, 150.60, and 150.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 12, 2018

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Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish bias above 0.7345. The pair remains bullish above its nearest support at 0.7345 and is likely to post a new bounce. The process of higher highs and lows remains intact on the prices, which should confirm a positive outlook. In addition, the relative strength index is turning up and also broke above its neutrality at 50. To conclude, as long as 0.7345 is not broken, likely advance to 0.7400 and 0.7425 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7400, 0.7425, and 0.7450

Support levels: 0.7320, 0.7300, and 0.7265.

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Burning forecast 04/12/2018

Burning forecast 04/12/2018

EURUSD: Growth under pressure.

The main factor: The world is closest to the global war from the "Caribbean crisis" of 1962.

Economic news faded into the background.

Trump has "considered" a massive missile attack on Syria for more than 48 hours as a retaliation for the use of chemical weapons in the Douma on April 7. Trump is consulting with the allies, so that the the attack would be from the coalition. Potentially, Britain and France will support the attack or be part of it.

In a statement by Trump on Wednesday, direct threats were made against Russia - he told them to wait for missiles fly to the country's ally, and they can try to shoot them down.

From Russia, threats were made not only to shoot down missiles - but also to strike at the sites where missiles were sent (!) - although the source of the statements is very strange - the Russian ambassador to Lebanon (!) - but he said it was an "official position." Neither Putin, nor the Ministry of Defense made such official statements. According to media reports, the Russian fleet left the port of Syria.

Flights over the Syrian region.

Until Trump decided to strike, the ship of the "Judgment Day" - the flying headquarters of the United States in the event of a nuclear war - was raised in the air.

Against this background came data on the US: inflation is gradually increasing + 2.1% per annum. The Fed's report showed a willingness to steadily and gradually raise the rate.

So, EURUSD: We are waiting for growth.

We keep buying from 1.2295 (stop-losses) and from 1.2350, stop at 1.2305, target is 1.2680.

Alternative: Sell from 1.2213, stop at 1.2258, profit at 1.2000.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 12, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.7375.

The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7294. The level of 0.7294 represents the daily pivot point in the H4 time frame. The pair rose from the level of 0.7294 to a top around 0.7375. Right now, the price is moving around the level of 0.7375. Also, it should be noted that the resistances levels are lies in 0.7375 and 0.7436, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7294 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7294 and 0.7436; so we expect a range of 142 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7375, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7436) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7300 with the first target at 0.7375 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7436. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7436 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7294, a further decline to 0.7151 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Bitcoin analysis for 12/04/2018

During Digital Day 2018 a declaration was signed to create a European Blockchain Partnership composed of 22 countries, according to a press release from the European Commission. The Vice-President of the European Commission called on Europe to become a leader in the field of digital technologies, through work on Blockchain innovations and artificial intelligence." The partnership will be a tool for cooperation between the Member States to exchange experience and expertise in technical and regulatory fields and prepare for launching EU-wide [blockchain] applications in the digital single market for the benefit of the public and private sectors." - we read in a press release. In the future, all public services will use this technology. "The blockchain is a great opportunity for Europe and the Member States to rethink information systems, promote user confidence and protect personal data, create new business opportunities and establish new leadership areas for the benefit of citizens, public services, and companies." - says Mariya Gabriel, Commissioner for the Digital Economy and Society.

The topic of Blockchain technology regulation has also been addressed in a press release, which states that the partnership will contribute to creating a favorable environment, fully compliant with EU law and clear management models that will help Europe-wide Blockchain-based services to flourish. The EC announced in early March that it intends to introduce an EU-wide framework on Fintech and Blockchain.

The countries that have signed the Blockchain partnership declaration are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The press release adds that other EU members and the European Economic Area are also invited to join.

At the beginning of February, the EC launched the EU Blockchain Observatory and Forum, which Gabriel named one of the most comprehensive repositories of experience and knowledge about Blockchain. The press release notes that the EC has invested over EUR 80 million in projects related to Blockchain, and by 2020 it will allocate around EUR 300 million to the development of Blockchain.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is closed in a horizontal zone between the levels of $7,442 - $6,400 as the consolidation continues. The short-term key level to the upside remains at $7,442, so only a breakout above this level would change the current bias from bearish to bullish. On the other hand, a breakout below the level of $6,400 will open the way towards the key long-term technical support at the level of $5,820.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 12, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair has faced strong resistances at the levels of 0.9602 because support had become resistance on April 12, 2018. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9602 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9602, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9602 (the level of 0.9602 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9602 so it will be good to sell at 0.9602 with the first target of 0.9540. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9515. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9515. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9670. Also, it should be noted that the double top is seen at the point of 0.9648.

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Trading plan for 12/04/2018

The US Dollar is not able to strengthen after the publication of FOMC Minutes and as a result, the Asian session ran in a sleepy atmosphere. EUR/USD is at 1.2360, GBP/USD around 1.4180 and USD/JPY again, the European session will start around 107.00. The Crude Oil remained above 67.00, but the Gold receded to USD 1,350 per ounce, which is about a dozen dollars cheaper than yesterday's maximum. Nikkei 225, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng all are falling, but by no more than 0.4%. In turn, futures on the SP500 is 0.15% higher than yesterday closing at 2645 points.

On Thursday 12th of April, the event calendar is busy in important data releases, and the market participants should keep an eye on BOE Credit Conditions Survey data from the UK, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, Unemployment Claims data from Canada. There is a scheduled speech from German Buba President Weidmann as well.

EUR/USD analysis for 12/04/2018:

The main event of the day is the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts release scheduled at 01:30 pm GMT. The market participants will likely search for the clues regarding changes in the ECB monetary policy as the recent comment from ECB members were suggesting a possible interest rate hike. Ewald Nowotny, who is the leading hawk in ECB, said that the QE program will be closed by the end of the year, which would open the way for rate hikes. According to Nowotny, the first move may concern the deposit rate and amount to 20 bps from -0.4%. up to -0.2 percent. This is the first case when a member of the ECB gives particulars for monetary policy, although Nowotny did not specify the date of the increase. The market participants will soon find out whether this rumors might be true.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are released. After the breakout higher from the falling wedge formation, the market has hit the level of 61% Fibo at 1.2375 and currently is still trading around this level in a tight intraday consolidation between the levels of 1.2346 (50% Fibo) - 1.2400 (round level resistance). The market conditions are now overbought and the momentum indicator starts to point to the downside. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2446, just below the golden trend line dynamic resistance and the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2290.

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US dollar under pressure

The US consumer inflation declined by 0.1% for the month of March. This is the first time that the data dropped since May 2017 against the backdrop of falling gasoline prices. At the same time, core inflation (Core CPI) increased by 0.2% with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%. The report as a whole should be recognized as positive, since the Fed is primarily focused on Core CPI in developing solutions for the rate.

The publication of data on inflation did not have a noticeable effect on the mood of the markets, which are completely absorbed in the worsening geopolitical situation.

Politics, as you know, is a concentrated expression of the economy. The Trump administration, despite its seeming randomness, has consistently taken steps that can fill the budget and reduce the dependence of the government on borrowing.

Forecasts, however, are still far from optimistic. On Wednesday, the head of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Keith Hull, presented an updated forecast for the next 10 years, taking into account, among other things, the effect of the tax reform that has already begun. According to calculations, the budget deficit in 2018 will be at 804 billion, and this estimate is 43% higher than the previous one. And by 2020, the deficit will already exceed $ 1 trillion.

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Thus, the SVO does not see any prospects for the tax reform, as it does not expect the growth of budget filling. Moreover, the economy will begin to decline. In 2010, the NWS expected GDP growth at 1.8%, which is below the world average.

To finance the deficit, the US authorities will be forced to increase the level of public debt, which will reach its highest level since 1946 and exceed 100% of GDP. This means that the growth rate of public debt will exceed the growth rate of the economy for the entire decade. Against the backdrop of an increase in the Fed's rate and growth in government bond yields, interest payments on public debt will grow from the current 1.6% of GDP to 3.1% of GDP, and will become the main expense of the government after spending on defense.

Thus, the forecast of the NWO directly contradicts the estimates of the consequences of the reforms of the presidential administration. The next elections to the US Congress will be held in the fall and Trump will need to look for evidence of the effectiveness of reforms now.

The minutes of the Fed meeting on March 20-21 were neutral, with a slight preponderance of the negative. Despite the fact that the protocol expresses confidence in the prospects for economic growth and the achievement of inflation rate of 2%, there was no unanimity among the members of the FOMC. Moreover, several members of the Committee expressed the opinion that the planned growth of the rate can be postponed until new information is received. Markets are confident that another increase will take place in June but the chances that there will be 4 in the current year have decreased, which led to a decrease in the dollar index after publication.

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Some explanations for the end of the week from the FOMC members will follow on Thursday and Friday. The performances of Kashkari, Kaplan, and Bullard are expected then. However, the overall score is unlikely to change.

The trade war between the US and China has temporarily receded into the background but there is no reason to expect that it will end without starting. Trump is forced to follow the path of protectionism, since there is no other way to save the budget and to achieve at least some preferences for American companies. At the same time, China appears to be full of determination, which has never been seen in its history. The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that protectionism will lead to irreparable consequences for world trade and will contribute to a slowdown in the world economy. However, it is unlikely that it will help correct trade deficits. These prospects are of a long-term nature and will contribute to the growth of demand for protective assets.

The dollar will be under a slight pressure and will probably decline against the yen and the euro, as well as gold which may grow. No significant macroeconomic publications are expected until the end of the week. Volatility will be determined by geopolitical factors and the rhetoric of officials.

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