Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for March 31, 2017

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Overview

The EUR/JPY price remains stable negatively below the resistance at 119.70 level, which makes us keep preferring the negative attempts in the near period, reminding you that the first target located at 118.55, and surpassing it will extend the losses to 116.80 to test the extension of the main bullish channel's support. The price gets its negative momentum from the main indicators union, to notice the stability of the moving average 55 above the mentioned resistance to confirm its confinement within the negative range, while stochastic forms new bearish wave to provide the negative momentum in the near trading. The expected trading range for today is between 119.70 and 118.55.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for March 31, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY price attempted to provide some positive attempts by surpassing 139.40 level to face the moving average 55, to reinforce the negative stability that forces it to renew the negative attempts as appears in the above image, we expect renewing the negative pressure on 137.60 level in the near and medium period, and surpassing it will extend the losses to 136.35 and 135.05. Which makes us suggesting the negativity for today, conditioned by the stability of 140.20 level as the main resistance against the current fluctuation, while the stability of the price above this resistance will make us begin preferring the bullish attempts again, to target 141.80 level initially reaching to 143.25. The expected trading range for today is between 140.10 and 137.60.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for March 31, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair breached 111.65 level to head towards testing the bearish channel's resistance, located now at 112.30, accompanied by witnessing big overbought signals through stochastic, which is expected to motivate the price to rebound bearishly to resume the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin by breaking 111.65 to confirm heading towards 109.00 as the next main station. Note that breaching 112.30 will stop the expected decline and push the price to turn to rise on the intraday and short-term basis, as the positive targets begin by testing 113.97. The expected trading range for today is between 111.00 support and 113.00 resistance. n by testing 113.97. The expected trading range for today is between 111.00 support and 113.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Gold for March 31, 2017

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Overview

Gold has showed sideways and tight trading since morning settling below the EMA50. That keeps the bearish trend scenario valid as it is without any change for today, waiting to visit 1,231.13 level mainly. Take into account that stochastic current positivity might cause more sideways fluctuation before resuming the expected bearish bias. Therefore, we are waiting for negative trading for the rest of the day unless the price manages to breach 1,263.17 level and hold with a daily close above it. The expected trading range for today is between 1,231.00 support and 1,255.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 31, 2017

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Overview

Silver managed to reach our first main target at 18.30, showing some bearish bias. Now it is fluctuating around 18.00 barrier. Notice that stochastic gets rid of its negativity to enter the oversold areas now, which supports the chances of resuming the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions. The price needs to breach 18.30 to confirm extending the bullish wave towards 19.00. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the overall bullish trend supported by the EMA50, noting that the continuation of the bullish bias depends on holding above 17.43 and 17.10 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 17.90 support and 18.40 resistance.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 31, 2017

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Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top).

During the bearish pullback, the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support to the pair.

This allowed further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

Last week, the bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced further advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3530.

The next bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains upside trading above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) which stands as a prominent support level.

On the other hand, if the USD/CAD pair moves below 1.3300, it may become trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (1.3300-1.2970).

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 31, 2017

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The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell-Zone) where the bearish price action was expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 allowed further decline toward 0.7100 then 0.6960 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

That is why further bearish fall was expected toward 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where a bullish position was suggested in previous articles.

Recently, the bullish breakout above the depicted key level (0.6960) was achieved.

That is why any bearish pullback toward 0.6960 should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7100 remains a significant key level to be watched for bearish price action when bullish pullback extends above 0.7040.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 31, 2017

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Wave summary:

With the test of 1.5203, wave [iv] could be complete for the final rally higher in wave [v] towards 1.5570 and possibly even closer to 1.5790. In the short term a break above minor resistance seen at 1.5347 is needed to confirm that wave [iv] has completed and wave [v] higher is unfolding.

As long as minor resistance at 1.5347 is able to cap the upside, we could still see a move slightly lower towards 1.5140, but it should just be a question of time before the next rally higher is seen now.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5235. We have placed our stop at 1.5050 expecting to be able to move it higher soon. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5347.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 31, 2017

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Wave summary:

There is no change in view here. We are looking for a minor rally in wave D of the expected triangle consolidation. This means a rally towards 122.40 should be seen before a decline in wave E to complete the triangle consolidation for the final rally higher to 126.54.

R3: 122.83

R2: 121.84

R1: 120.45

Pivot: 119.40

S1: 119.00

S2: 118.47

S3: 118.19

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity at 118.75 or upon a break above 119.85.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 31, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9924. The pair rose from the level of 0.9924 to a top around 0.9993. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0042 followed by 1.0105, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9958 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9993 and 1.0105; so we expect a range of 112 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.0042, we should see the pair climbing towards the major resistance (1.0105) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9993 with the first target at 1.0042 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.0105. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.0105 is a good place to take profit. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9958, a further decline to 0.9924 (the double bottom) can occur which would indicate a bearish market. In case, you bought above the level of 0.9993 then stop loss should be placed at 0.9900.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 31, 2017

EUR/USD: There is already a bearish view on the EUR/USD pair, owing to the weakness that started in the market this week, which was long expected. The price tested the resistance line at 1.0900 and then declined by 220 pips. Further decline is expected as the price would go towards the support lines at 1.0650 and 1.0600.

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USD/CHF: After testing the support level at 0.9850, the USD/CHF pair went upwards by roughly 190 pips. The price is now above the psychological level at 1.0000 and it may go further upwards to test the resistance levels at 1.0050 and 1.0100. As long as the EUR/USD is weak, the USD/CHF pair would be strong. That is the simple logic.

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GBP/USD: The Cable still manages to be bullish in spite of the challenges it has experienced this month. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 has moved above the level 50. It would be OK to seek long trades in this market, for that is the outlook for the next several trading days.

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USD/JPY: What started as an upside consolidation on USD/JPY has finally become a formidable bullishness. The EMA 11 has almost crossed the EMA 56 to the upside and the RSI period 14 is almost above the level 50. A movement above the supply level at 112.50 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart.

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EUR/JPY: The cross has only moved sideways this week – in the context of a downtrend. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and further bearish movement is a possibility, for price may test the demand zones at 119.00 and 118.50. However, there remains a probability in the next several trading days.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 31, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD is still trading around the spot of 0.7004. Thus, the NZD/USD pair did not make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The pair has already formed minor resistance at 0.7004 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 0.7075 because it represents the weekly resistance 1. Moreover, the NZD/USD pair is still moving around the zone of 0.7075 (major resistance). So, major resistance is seen at 0.7075, while immediate support is found at 0.6946. If the pair closes below the price of 0.6946, the NZD/USD pair may resume its movement to 0.6850 to test the daily support 2. The NZD/USD pair is expected to trade between the levels of 0.7004 and 0.6850. The RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market since two weeks. The current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell trades are recommended below the double top of 0.7004 with targets at 0.6869 and 0.6850. However, stop loss should always be taken into account; accordingly, it will be useful to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 0.7075. Additionally, the pair will probably decline because the downward trend is still strong.
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Global macro overview for 31/03/2017

Global macro overview for 31/03/2017:

The German Unemployment Rate for the month of March declined to 5.8%, the lowest level in 10 years. Moreover, the Unemployment Change (measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month) declined 30k people, while the market participants expected a decline of only 10k. The number was even better than the last month 17k decline in unemployment people. The other good news from Germany is the increase in Retail Sales of 1.8% on month-to-month basis (versus 0.7% expected and -1.0% prior). Nevertheless, yesterday's inflation data from Germany and France were worse than expected. Consumer inflation in European Union slowed from 2.1% to 1.5%, while a forecast was a decline of 1.8%. Core inflation was only 0.7% higher than a year ago, while the market participants expected a reading of 0.8 %. In conclusion, the unemployment is at the record low, the sales are increasing, but the weakening of inflationary pressure in March does not give grounds for the market to discount the rapid normalization of policy by the ECB.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price had retraced 61% of the previous swing high and now is trying to bounce/reverse higher and break out above the technical resistance zone between the levels of 0.8603 - 0.8613. The breakout above this level will open the road towards the next technical resistance seen at the level of 0.8661. The oversold market conditions support the bullish bias.

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EUR/USD analysis for March 31, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level 1.067. According to the 30M time frame, I found that price is trading in the well-defined downward channel, which is an indication that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.0620.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.0745

R2: 1.0770

R3: 1.0810

Support levels:

S1: 1.0665

S2: 1.0640

S3: 1.0600

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 31/03/2017

Global macro overview for 31/03/2017:

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index from the US is scheduled for release at 02:00 pm GMT and the global investors expect it to be in line with the last month's number of 97.6 points. Nevertheless, this number might be easily beaten, because the Conference Board's March consumer confidence index was released last Tuesday, and it jumped to 125.6. This was the biggest increase in 17 years. It is very unusual for almost the same scales to release completely different results or show the temporary divergence, so we might expect that University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index could exceed expectations.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame before the news is published. The market is trading in overbought trading conditions, just below very important technical resistance zone, 0.9991 - 1.0033 levels. If the data from the US are better than expected, then this zone should be violated and the price should head upwards towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.0059. In a case of worse than expected data, the price should correct cycle with a target at the next technical support at the level of 0.9949.

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Gold analysis for March 31, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level $1,239.70. According to the 30M time frame, I found that the price is trading in well-defined downward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found hidden bearish divergence. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,235.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,251.35

R2: $1,254.30

R3: $1,259.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,241.80

S2: $1,238.80

S3: $1,234.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading plan for 31/03/2017

Trading plan for 31/03/2017:

The end of March is the end of fiscal year in Japan. USD/JPY fights back above 112.00 and wide index of TOPIX erased all this year's gains. EUR/USD remains below 1.0007. The market is in low volatility mode, most G-10 currency does not change the value to the Dollar. Positive PMI data from China were without much influence on sentiment. Crude Oil is in the phase of correction of significant gains from previous days. The stronger Dollar and the stabilization of the US debt market have brought Gold prices to around $1,240 an ounce.

On 31st of March the event calendar is full of important events and the market participants will pay attention to the UK Final GDP and Current Account for 4th quarter data, Eurozone Consumer Price Index data, and Canadian Gross Domestic Product, Personal Spending, Personal Income, and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index data from the US.

GBP/USD analysis for 31/03/2017:

The UK Final Gross Domestic Product data was worse than anticipated. On the quarter-to-quarter basis the GCP was in line with expectations at the level of 0.7%, but on a year-to-year basis the number revealed was at the level of 1.9%, while market participants expected 2.0%. For the whole 2016 the GDP was at the level of 1.8%. In the same time, some interesting comments from the President of European Council Donald Tusk were released. He said that Brexit talks will be difficult and sometimes confrontational and EU will not pursue a punitive approach to Brexit. Moreover, he intends to visit Theresa May in London before April 29th EU summit.

Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame to see any reaction for the news. The bulls tried to test the technical resistance at the level of 1.2538, but they failed and now the price is declining towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2377. The overall picture is neither bullish nor bearish, so the sideway price action is expected today for this market.

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USD/CAD analysis for 31/03/2017:

The Gross Domestic Product data are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and the global investors expect a steady pace of progression on a month-to-month basis at the level of 0.3% and a decline from 2.0% to 1.8% on a year-to-year basis. If the data are better than expected, then the Canadian Dollar will appreciate in value, especially if the monthly GDP are released above 0.5%.

Let's take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the news is published. The market keeps trading sideways between the levels of 1.3263 - 1.3419, so it is clear the market participants are waiting for the fundamental trigger in order to break out above/below one of these levels. If the data are better than anticipated, then the technical support at the level of 1.3263 will be tested again. If the data are in line with expectations or worse, then the bulls might try to test the technical resistance at the level of 1.3419 and head towards the level of 1.3493.

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EUR/USD analysis for 31/03/2017:

The Personal Income and Personal Spending data are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT today. Personal Income is expected to have increased by 0.4% in February and Personal Spending by 0.2%. Personal Income and its growth rate is probably the key determinant for the economic outlook right now, because it is determined by Wage Growth (published with NFP Payrolls). The bigger wage growth, the better is personal income, and people tend to spend more, so the personal spending increases as well, which in turn means the economy is in good shape.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the news is published. The market trades in oversold conditions as the price hit the technical support at the level of 1.0678. If the news are better than expected, then there is a chance for the corrective rally towards the level of 1.0714, but if the news turns out to be worse than expected, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.0599.

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AUD/JPY profit target almost reached, prepare to sell

Forex analysis review
AUD/JPY profit target almost reached, prepare to sell

Technical analysis of USDX for March 31, 2017

The Dollar index continued its upward bounce yesterday extending it towards the 50% retracement of the decline from 102.25. I continue to favor a bearish reversal in the index especially now when the price has reached important daily cloud resistance. Overall I believe that the upside is over or soon will be completed.

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The Dollar index is approaching the upper cloud boundary resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This is resistance area. So far short-term trend remains bullish as the price is making higher highs and higher lows. Short-term support is at 100.25 and at 99.70. Next resistance is at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 101.analytics58ddffa9dd88e.png

Blue line - resistance

Black line -neckline support

Green line - long-term trend line support

The daily chart suggests that we might see some more upside today in the Dollar index towards the cloud resistance and probably towards the blue downward sloping trend line. The Dollar index is expected to make a lower high soon and reverse downwards. I am focused on selling the US dollar.

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Technical analysis of gold for March 31, 2017

Yesterday Gold continued the pullback and is trading above $1,240 near the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise from $1,194 to $1,261. Short-term trend is bearish, but it is expected to reverse soon.

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Red lines - bearish channel

The price has entered the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. This changing trend will back to neutral in the short term. The RSI (5) is telling me that soon we will have an upward reversal. Short-term resistance is at $1,248. Support is at $1,236.

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Gold remains above both the weekly tenkan- and kijun-sen. This is a good sign. However, the price needs to break above the black downward sloping trend line resistance and above the cloud at $1,300-$1,310 in order for the weekly trend to be confirmed bullish.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 29, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD failed to build on the break above 1.5441 and topped out already at 1.5450 indicating that wave [iv] still is unfolding. More corrective downside pressure close to 1.5230 still should be expected before wave [v] will be ready to take over, for a rally towards 1.5764.

R3: 1.5780

R2: 1.5667

R1: 1.5554

Pivot: 1.5365

S1: 1.5275

S2: 1.5230

S1: 1.5170

Trading recommendation:

Our stop is at 1.5360 for a nice profit. We will re-buy EUR at 1.5235 or upon a break above 1.5456.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 29, 2017

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Wave summary:

Once again the pair failed to break above important short-term resistance seen near 120.34. This resistance needs to be cleared to confirm that wave ii has completed and wave iii higher is developing for a rally to above 122.88.

Support is now seen near 119.55 and will ideally be able to protect the downside for the next attempt to break above 120.34.

R3: 121.84

R2: 120.75

R1: 120.39

Pivot: 120.00

S1: 119.77

S2: 119.55

S3: 119.28

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.65 with stop placed at 119.20. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 120.39 and use the same stop at 119.20.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still moving around the zone of 0.7075 (major resistance). The pair has already formed minor resistance at 0.7004 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 0.7075 because it represents the weekly resistance 1 (history will repeat itself again at 0.7075). So, major resistance is seen at 0.7075, while immediate support is found at 0.6946. If the pair closes below the price of 0.6946, the NZD/USD pair may resume its movement to 0.6850 to test the daily support 2. The NZD/USD pair is expected to trade between the levels of 0.7004 and 0.6850. The RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market. The current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell trades are recommended below the double top of 0.7004 with targets at 0.6869 and 0.6850. However, stop loss should always be taken into account; accordingly, it will be useful to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 0.7075. Besides, the pair will probably decline because the downward trend is still strong.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9847. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9847 to a top around 0.9936. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9958 followed by 0.9993, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9881 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9924 and 0.9993; so we expect a range of 69 pips in coming hours. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9993, we should see the pair climbing towards the major resistance (1.0042) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9924 with the first target at 0.9958 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.9993. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.0042 is a good place to take profit. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9881, a further decline to 0.9812 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Global macro overview for 29/03/2017

Global macro overview for 29/03/2017:

The speeches from various FED policymakers have hit the news streams of financial markets. In his recent comments regarding the future Federal Reserve interest rates policy, FED Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer said, that two more interest rate hikes in 2017 should be about right. According to Fischer, the overall risks are also more or less balanced towards more or fewer rate hikes while the Dollar hasn't continued to strengthen. The similar hawkish tone was clearly indicated by Kansas City Fed President Esther George as she stated that it will be important to continue the process of gradually raising interest rates in order not to shock the US economy. The Dallas FED president Robert Kaplan remarks were not that much hawkish as he said that FED should be taking steps to raise rates gradually and cautiously. Chairperson Janet Yellen made no references to current economic trends or monetary policy in her speech on Tuesday. In conclusion, the most of the speeches were pretty hawkish in their tone, so the market participants should still be expecting at least two more interest rate hikes this year.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the hawkish comments the bulls camp have managed to bounce from the oversold levels, but so far the price did not test the important technical resistance at the level of 11.57. Only a clear break out above this level will open the road towards the next technical resistance at the level of 112. 88. The immediate support is seen at the level of 110.84.

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Global macro overview for 29/03/2017

Global macro overview for 29/03/2017:

The CB Consumer Confidence data had beaten the market expectations. The number was released at the level of 125.6 points, which was way better than last month's 116.1 points and better than anticipated number of 113.9 points, the highest reading since December 2000. Consumers' assessment of both current business and labor market conditions improved sharply in March. They also anticipated an increase in their incomes. The possible reason behind this surge in optimism in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in last November's presidential election is his presidential campaign promises. The Trump administration has pledged to pursue business-friendly policies, including tax cuts and deregulation. In conclusion, the sentiment among the US households is very positive, but it might change if the Trump administration will fail to deliver what they promised.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the lower low was made at the level of 98.86, the market rallied a little from the oversold levels and now it trading just below the psychological resistance at the level of 100.00. This is very important level for bulls, because once violated, it opens the road towards the weekend gap between the levels of 100.88 - 101.43 after the FED interest rate decision was made. The next support for the price is seen at the level of 99.53.

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Trading plan for 29/03/2017

Trading plan for 29/03/2017:

Today's trading in the Dollar is calm after yesterday's rebound, except for the Pound that is feeling nervous about the formal start of the Brexit procedure. The stock market in the USA has little change as well. The stock market in Asia is without direction today. Shanghai Composite is up 0.2%, but Nikkei loses 0.1%.

Wednesday the 29th of March will be all about Brexit, but the Crude Oil inventories and various FED policymakers speeches will definitely gain some attention from the market participants.

GBP/USD analysis for 29/03/2017:

It is not that simple to predict the possible behavior of any of the Pound pair today and the reason behind it is, of course, the start of the Brexit procedure. There are three ways of trading the Brexit even today. The first way is to sell the pound before the event in anticipation of a profit, and if you get a big profit, you can hold the position for the whole event believing that the movement will be higher for the pair GBP/USD. The other way is to wait until the market starts the initial move and buy the GBP/USD pair for a brief return, as some traders and economists do not agree that the final exit will be after 18 months. The third option is to wait a little longer, an hour or two, giving the market a breath and then follow the trend that will come out as it will likely continue through the New York and Asian sessions. It is important to remember that the GBP/USD pair may be a very violate pair after the event on the move.

Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the Brexit event is announced. There are two critical support and resistance zones. The resistance zone is between the levels of 1.2705 - 1.2772 and the support zone is between the levels of 1.1985 - 1.2046. There is a high possibility that both of these zones will be violated today, so cautious trading is recommended.

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Crude Oil analysis for 29/03/2017:

Crude oil remains stronger with WTI's price at $48.6 in response to reports from Libya about halting supplies of oil fields in the Sahara. OPEC leaks on the possible extension of the reduction contract also help stabilize the market. The API report fell to +1.9 million barrels, but due to similar DOE forecasts, the market remained neutral. Today's news release at 02:30 pm GMT regarding the crude oil inventories (1,200k expected vs. 4,954k before) might trigger more volatility on this market.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H1 time frame. After a quadruple bottom, the market rallied towards the next technical resistance at the level of $48.72 and managed to violate it. Nevertheless, the current market conditions look overbought and the growing bearish divergence indicated a temporary pullback towards the level of $48.47 or $48.27. When the pullback is completed, the intraday uptrend should resume.

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Market snapshot: USD/CAD Double Top in play?

The USD/CAD price is trading just below the gray rectangle resistance zone after failed second attempt to break out above it. The dashed black trend line had been tested once, so any violation of it will open the road for bears to test the next technical support at the level of 1.3302 or even 1.3275. On the other hand, break out above the resistance zone will open the road for bulls to test the recent swing highs around the level of 1.3537.

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EUR/USD fundamental analysis for March 28, 2017

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EUR/USD fundamental analysis for March 28, 2017

Technical analysis of USDX for March 29, 2017

The Dollar index bounced as we were expecting since the divergence signals were increasing. The Dollar index has bounced off important support at 99-98.80 area and is trying to break above the first important resistance levels. I believe the most probable outcome will be a lower high and another bearish reversal.

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The Dollar index has reversed and is testing short-term Ichimoku cloud resistance at 99.90. Support is at 99.40. This upward move could continue towards 101 if the sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues in the 4-hour chart.

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Black line - neckline support

Blue line -trend line resistance

Green line -long-term trend line support

The Dollar index owed us a bounce from oversold levels and delivered it yesterday despite the weakness it showed on Monday. As I said in a previous post, weekly candles are not shaped on Monday and that is why we need to be patient with the weekly close. I expect the Dollar index to make a lower high relative to the 102.30 and then reverse lower towards 98 or even 97.

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Technical analysis of gold for March 29, 2017

Gold has pulled back towards $1,240 as expected after breaking below and out of the bullish short-term channel. Long-term trend remains bullish and I continue to expect еру price to move towards $1,300-$1,310.

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Blue lines - bullish channel (broken)

Red lines - bearish channel

Short-term resistance is at $1,257 and the next is at $1,263, at the February's high. Support is at $1,240 in the 4-hour chart by the Ichimoku cloud. The price could drift lower towards $1,240 but overall I continue to see these pullbacks as buying opportunity for Gold.

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Black line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

The weekly candle has stopped right below the February high. This is important weekly resistance. Breaking above it will open the way for a move towards the black downward sloping resistance trend line at $1,300-$1,310. Critical support remains at $1,194. If it is broken, the bullish scenario will be in danger as we will have a lot of chances of testing long-term support trend line at $1,150-60.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 29, 2017

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The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell-Zone) where the bearish price action was expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 allowed further decline toward 0.7100 then 0.6960 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

That is why further bearish fall was expected toward 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where a bullish position was suggested in previous articles.

Recently, the bullish breakout above the depicted key level (0.6960) was achieved. That is why any bearish pullback toward 0.6960 should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7100 remains a significant key level to be watched for bearish price action if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.7040.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 29, 2017

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Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top).

During the bearish pullback, the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support to the pair.

This allowed further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

Last week, the bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced further advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3530.

The next bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains upside trading above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) which stands as a prominent support level.

On the other hand, if the USD/CAD pair moves below 1.3300, it may become trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (1.3300-1.2970).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Mar 29, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Import Prices m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Pending Home Sales m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0869.

Strong Resistance:1.0863.

Original Resistance: 1.0852.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0841.

Target Inner Area: 1.0816.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0791.

Original Support: 1.0780.

Strong Support: 1.0769.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0763.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Mar 29, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories, and Pending Home Sales m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.71.

Resistance. 2: 111.49.

Resistance. 1: 111.27.

Support. 1: 111.00.

Support. 2: 110.78.

Support. 3: 110.56.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 29, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD opened this week with a minor gap-up. Price went upwards in conjunction with the extant bullish outlook, testing the resistance line at 1.0900, and then pulling back. It is possible that price would rally from here; although a movement below the support line at 1.0650 would mean the end of the current bullish outlook.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF went sideways on Monday and then rallied on Tuesday. Although that rally was not significant enough to render the current bearish bias invalid. The EMA 11 remains below the EMA 56 (though the Williams' % Range period 20 is heading into the overbought region, which would harbinger a stall in the current rally). Whatever happens, today would determine the next direction in the market.

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GBP/USD: The Cable trudged upwards and tested the distribution territory at 1.2600 and pulled back. The pullback has not been strong enough to override the extent bullish outlook on the market: unless the price goes below the accumulation territories at 1.2400 and 1.2350. From this point, there is a possibility that price could try to recover the recent short-term losses.

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USD/JPY: This pair consolidated on Monday and then bounced upwards on Tuesday. There remains a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and unless the price goes upwards by at least, 200 pips, there would not be a threat to the extent bearish bias. The bearish bias would hold until there is a strong rally in the market.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY has consolidated so far this week – in the context of a downtrend. There would soon be some momentum in the market, and while the demand zones at 120.00 and 119.50 could be tested, it is expected that there would be some rally before the end of the week.

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