GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 3, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, a bearish breakout of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market. Persistence below the zone between 1.4950 and 1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700.

Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom (which initiated the ongoing bullish swing) was reached. A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800 which offered a valid sell entry. The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, higher highs around the level of 1.5200 were hit. That applied strong bullish pressure over the resistance level around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900.

Risky traders could take a valid sell entry anywhere around 1.5900-1.5930. It is already running in profits now.

Note that the price level of 1.5780 remains significant resistance level, which provided valid SELL entries previously on May 15 and recently on June 29.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.5555 is considered a prominent DEMAND Level which also corresponds to the depicted uptrend line.

A valid BUY entry can be offered around 1.5560. S/L should be set as daily closure below 1.5500.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 3, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looks quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were reached within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend) for the USD/CAD pair. Bullish support was offered around these levels. A bullish pullback took place shortly after.

Recently, the price zone of 1.2450-1.2500 constituted strong resistance (backside of the broken uptrend and the previous consolidation zone).

As anticipated, a daily candlestick closure below 1.2430 (previous week) enhanced further bearish decline. Since then, the price zone around 1.2400 has constituted solid intraday resistance for the USD/CAD pair.

However, the previous weekly candlestick closed at 1.2270 (reflecting lack of enough bearish momentum). That is why, an extensive bullish corrective movement is now being expressed on the chart.

On the other hand, the USD/CAD pair needs a frank weekly closure below 1.2300 to ensure further bearish decline in the long term.

However, persistence above the level of 1.2400 enhanced a bullish pullback towards 1.2600 (the key level depicted on the chart) where a valid sell entry may be offered.

The price zone of 1.2600-1.2650 should be defended by bears (upper limit of the weekly channel as well as a prominent daily resistance).

However, we also should note that a daily closure above 1.2650 hinders this bearish scenario for some time.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 3, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 850 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflect bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a bearish breakout of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term projection target is located at 0.9450.

However, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 may be executed ONLY if May's monthly high 1.1465 gets breached (considered a low probability now).

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After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (slightly below the depicted daily supply level).

This week, the market opened around the level of 1.1000 (following a large bearish gap). The level of 1.1000 corresponds to the depicted daily uptrend. That is why, an ascending bottom was expected to be established there.

Another re-closure below the level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1000 again where the uptrend is possible (significant demand).

EUR/USD bulls must keep trading above 1.1000, so that further bullish advancement can be achieved.

Initial bullish target would be located at 1.1150 and 1.1300 (a prominent supply level to be watched).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 3, 2015

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Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

Shortly after, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly key zone of 1.5500-1.5550 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

Last month, the market has been pushed above this weekly key zone at 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, this supply level enhanced a bearish pullback towards 1.5550 which should be watched carefully for bullish price action (the resulting weekly candlestick closure should be assessed by the end of Today).

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A bearish breakout of the depicted bullish channel took place as a result of the bearish pressure around 1.5780 and 1.5660 (bearish engulfing candlesticks and lower highs).

After a bearish breakout of 1.5500-1.5550 (lower limit of the broken channel), the market failed to gather enough bearish momentum towards the intraday demand level of 1.5100.

Significant bullish pressure was observed around 1.5200. Hence, a bullish swing was established towards 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.5880 (FE 100%).

As anticipated, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 remains a significant supply zone for the GBP/USD pair. It offered a valid sell entry last week. S/L should be lowered to 1.5680. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the current price level at 1.5550 constitute a significant demand level for the pair (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top).

It should be watched for a valid buy entry if signs of bullish rejection are expressed on the H4 chart. Initial bullish target would be located at 1.5680-1.5700.

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Gold analysis for July 03, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading sideways around the price of $1,168.00. According to the H4 time frame, our support cluster around the price of $1,162.00 got broken but we can observe pin bar, which is a sign for a weak breakout and potential fake breakout. Selling looks risky at this stage, because support at the price of $1,162.00 is still active. The short-term trend has changed from bearish to neutral. We got a new low at the price of $1,157.00. If the price breaks the level of $1,157.00 in a high volume, we may see possible testing of the level of $1,147.00. Otherwise, bullish phase is possible. I am still waiting for larger activity and stronger price action on the market to confirm further direction.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,168.00

R2: 1,172.00

R3: 1,176.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,157.00

S2: 1,154.00

S3: 1,150.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold since our strong support at the price of of $1,162.00 is still active. We can observe indecision market. Wait for larger activity and stronger price action to confirm further direction.

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Global macro overview for 03/07/2015 - post-NFP situation on EUR/USD

Global macro overview for 03/07/2015 - post-NFP situation on EUR/USD

Yesterday's June NFP number was slightly lower than estimated 231,000 and it showed only 223,000 of newly created jobs (254,000 in May). Different situation could be observed in unemployment rate. The market consensus was another decline to 5.4% after strong May NFP reading, but the decline was even deeper to 5.3% - overall a very good number. The average hourly earnings rose only 2% in June after 2,3% in May, so there is slight disappointment. Similar situation was with the participation rate reading that slid slight from 62,9% in May to 62.6% in June. Nevertheless, the somehow disappointing figures from the US labor market did not really made the common currency to surge higher as the market is now waiting for the Greek referendum results on Sunday.

Current EUR/USD situation: there wasn't too much buying activity after the NFP news release yesterday and the market stayed range bounded for the all trading day. Currently the Greece referendum results are the most important single fundamental factor that will affect the EUR/USD rate over the weekend. So if you are in doubt, it is advised to close the remaining open positions before the Friday market close.

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Global macro overview for 03/07/2015, AUD/USD extends its drop

Global macro overview for 03/07/2015 - AUDUSD extends drop

After May retail sales data release published last night (-0.1% m/m; 4.1% y/y expected vs. 0.3% m/m; 4.7% y/y reading), the aussie was pushed lower towards the level of 0.7500, the lowest level in 6 years. It was the third day when the currency has been moving downwards and the fuel to the fire was added by even more disappointing iron ore prices drop as well. As AUD is a commodity currency that is very susceptible for iron ore prices, the negative trend looks to be sustained for some more time. Today's market volume is expected to be muted, due to Independence Day in the US, so market sentiment will be mostly driven by next week RBA meeting (cash rate decision is due on Tuesday and labor data is due on Thursday).

Current AUD/USD situation: The decline towards the level of 0.7500 is in progress and if this level is violated, next weekly technical support is seen at the level of 0.7266.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 3, 2015

General overview for 03/07/2015 13:35 CET

The corrective cycle in wave b green ( alt: -iv- blue) evolves into more complex and time-consuming one as the fundamental factors from Greece weight on the current market rate. Nevertheless, the triangle idea is still valid as well as the impulsive count and the outlook is still bullish. Please remember that any breakout below the level of 135.68 will invalidate the main count (wave b green triangle) and put the alternative count ( wave -iv- triangle) in charge. Any new low bellow the level of 133.76 invalidates both counts.

Support/Resistance:

133.76 - Swing Low

135.68 - Intraday Support

136.03 - Weekly Pivot

137.52 - Intraday Resistance

138.04 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should refrain from trading until next week due to the fundamental factors based on Greek referendum on Sunday.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 3, 2015

General overview for 03/07/2015 13:25 CET

The top for the wave 3 seems to be in place now and the market started a corrective cycle to the downside. The first wave of the cycle has been made and now the top for the wave b purple is in progress. The target for wave b might be the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2580.

Support/Resistance:

1.2632 - Wave 3 Top

1.2616 - WR3

1.2580 - Intraday Resistance

1.2537 - WR2

1.2500 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 1.2581 and TP at the level of 1.2500.

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EUR/NZD : analysis for July 03, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6615 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak demand bar, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The short-term trend changed from bullish to neutral but mid-term trend is still bullish. Our support at 1.6615 was put to the test. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe the demand bar in an average volume. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.6400, Fibonacci retracement 50% at the level of 1.6330 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.6260. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.6615 in a high volume, a test at the level of 1.7000 is possible.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6590

R2: 1.6640

R3: 1.6725

Support levels:

S1: 1.6420

S2: 1.6365

S3: 1.6280

Trading recommendations: The short-term trend has changed from bullish to neutral but mid-term trend is still bullish. If the price breaks the level of 1.6615, a test at the level of 1.7000 is possible.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 03, 2015

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GBP/USD is likely to consolidate today after hitting a two-week low of 1.5560 on Thursday. Sterling sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected UK June CIPS / Markit construction PMI of 58.1 (versus forecast 56.5). GBP/USD is also supported by weaker sentiment towards the US dollar (ICE spot dollar index last 96.08 versus 96.32 early Thursday). But GBP/USD upside is limited by sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross and diminished investor risk appetite.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.5560. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.5485. The pivot point stands at 1.5660. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.57 and the second target at 1.5740.

Resistance levels: 1.57 1.5740 1.5775

Support levels: 1.5560 1.5485 1.5415

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 03, 2015

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USD/CAD is likely to trade in a lower range today after hitting a near-three-month high of 1.2633 on Thursday. CAD sentiment is boosted by a rise in the Canadaian RBC manufacturing PMI to 51.3 in June from 49.8 in May. USD/CAD is also weighed by weaker sentiment towards the US dollar (ICE spot dollar index last 96.11 versus 96.32 early Thursday). But USD/CAD losses are tempered by lower crude oil prices (Nymex crude hit two-month low $56.40/bbl on Globex this morning; last down 37 cents at $56.56/bbl) and diminished investor risk appetite.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and us advancing but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.2510. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2470. The pivot point stands at 1.2595. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.2630 and the second target at 1.2670.

Resistance levels: 1.2630 1.2670 1.27

Support levels: 1.2510 1.2470 1.2450

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USDX technical analysis for July 3, 2015

The US Dollar Index remains in an uptrend for a short term. We see some signs of short-term reversal to pull back. The price is also below the important weekly resistance at 97, but as long as we hold above 94.50, bulls are in control. However, we should note that there is increased risk of a gap down on Monday in case a yes vote wins at the Greek referendum as the EURUSD is the main component of the Index.

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Blue line - trend line support

The US Dollar Index is above the cloud and trend-line support. The price is moving towards higher highs and higher lows. We could see a pullback towards 95 today, but if a yes vote wins at the Greek referendum, we should see a gap down on Monday's openning.

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Blue line - weekly trend line resistance

The weekly chart is still below the trend-line resistance. This is an important resistance area. There is a strong possibility that the rejection at this level can be combined with a gap down on Monday as we have the extraordinary event in Greece. Traders should be very cautious and be protected against a possible gap down on Monday.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 03, 2015

JPY is trading higher against the greenback after weak US data. JPY has been trading higher against USD for 2 consecutive weeks. The pair was trading below 20Dsma 123.40 and closed below that level. The 20Wsma is found at 121.00 and the support of the month is seen at 122.00. After yesterday's US data, the pair hit a low of 122.83, whereas bulls' last hope remained at 122.80. The pair is moving towards lower highs and lower lows. The double top was formed at 124.45.

Intraday resistance is seen at 123.90, 124.0,0 and 124.45, support is found at 122.80, 122.40, and 122.00. Until the pair holds 122.80, the bullish view remains in play. Selling opportunity is available below 122.80 with targets at 122.50, 122.40, and 122.00. Selling accelerates below 121.95 towards 121.00 which is the last hope for bulls. Buying is available above 123.30 with targets at 123.45, 123.60 and 123.90, strong bullish momentum is expacted above 124.00 towards the previous double top at 124.45.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 03, 2015

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June. The unemployment rate declined to 5.3% as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday. The unemployment rate declined by 0.2% to 5.3% in June. Traders eye weekend big event, the Greek referendum, and Thursday's FOMC meeting minutes. We guess the coming week is going to be a busy week in the forex world.

The loonie is trading higher against the greenback after weak job numbers. The pair paused its 3-day rally at yesterday's session falling by 0.4%. It closed on the lowest point of the day. Today, the pair opened lower on a bullish note. Bulls tried to close above 1.2600.

Intraday support is found at 1.2530, 1.2500, and 1.2480. The 20Wsma is found at 1.2400 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.2646 and 1.2667. Bulls laid a strong base in different layers initiated at 1.2200, later extended at 1.2300 and 1.2400. The hourly oscillators indicates overbought. We can observe higher highs and higher lows in the daily and hourly charts. Selling is available below 1.2530. Selling accelerates are below 1.2470 towards 1.2400. Buying is available above 1.2600 with targets at at 1.2620, 1.2640, and 1.2660.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 03, 2015

Bulls failed to utilize the positive UK construction PMI and weak US data. The cable rejected at 20Dsma extending its fall for the third consecutive day.

In June, construction sector output growth rebounded to its fastest rate in four months. June's readings signaled a further rebound in construction sector from a 22-month low recorded in April. The UK Construction PMI inched from 55.9 in May to 58.1 in June.

Today, traders eye the UK Services PMI, which fell to 56.5 from 59.50. Analysts' forecast was 57.4.

Technical view:

The cable rejected at 100Wema trading below 50Wsma 1.5650. The cable was trading at the 20Dsma 1.5660 and closed below that level. The support is found at 1.5540 on an intraday and weekly basis as well. Bulls tried to close above 1.5650. The 20Wsma is found at 1.5265. The strong support zone is found at 1.5540 and 1.5510. A daily close below these levels opens gates for 1.5460 and 1.5430, and even 1.5270. The previous swing low is seen at 1.5170.

In the H1 and the four-hour chart, the cable has been moving towards lower highs and lower lows. The cable was trading at 1.5610 at today's Asian session. We can observe bunch of supports for every 30 points. Safe selling is not available today. Trade depends on UK data amid absence of US data. Intraday support is found at 1.5580, 1.5540, and 1.5510. We recommend safe selling below 1.5500. Risk traders can sell with help of the given support levels. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.5640, 1.5670, and 1.5700. Small buying is available above 1.5675 towards 1.5700 and 1.5730 in the extreme case. The lower high formation will be erased above 1.5735.

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Gold technical analysis for July 3, 2015

Gold price has broken below the lower triangle boundary and has given an important sell signal. Today, we can see a back test of this break-down area. A trend remains bearish and so is my longer-term view. Support at $1,130 is the last defense for bulls. If we break below that level, $1,000 will be my target.

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Blue lines - triangle pattern

Gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Gold is hitting lower lows and lower highs. A bounce towards $1,172-75 is very possible. This is the short-term resistance. Support is at $1,157 and then at $1,130-40.

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Blue line - long-term support trend line

The weekly chart reached very close to the blue long-term trend line support. If this support trendline gets broken, we should expect a push towards $1,000. Important weekly resistance is at $1,200. I would remain bearish.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 01, 2015

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USD/CHF is likely to trade in a lower range today. The pair is undermined by weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.09 versus 96.32 early Thursday) and franc demand on a retreating EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention and negative Swiss interest rates.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought levels, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and is advancing

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9360. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9330. The pivot point stands at 0.9450. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.95 and the second target at 0.9540.

Resistance levels: 0.95 0.9540 0.96

Support levels: 0.9360 0.9330 0.9285

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 03, 2015

The NFP data pushed the greenback down against the euro pausing a 2-day losing streak at yesterday's session. The Spain registered a 94,727 decrease in unemployment in June. The US June payrolls came out below expectations above 200,000. Whereas, the unemployment rate hit a 7-years low.

As we are approaching the referendum, we have only one day left for trading before the event. As per the sources, the Eurogroup is going to have meeting on coming Monday and leaders of the the eurozone's countries will meet on July 8. FOMC meeting minutes are due on Thursday, July 9

Technical view: Bulls: The pair has been managing to hold the 100Dsma successfully closing above that. The pair is trading above 20Wsma 1.1030. In the daily chart, the pair lost all the moving averages except for 100Dsma. In the hourly chart, 20Dsma help bulls rebound from Monday's lows.

Bears: The double top was placed between 1.1467 and 1.1437. The resistance is seen at 1.1180 50Dsma and strong resistance is seen at 1.1235. Until the price closes below these, selling on rallies is valid. The pair has been hitting lower lows and lower highs in the daily, H1, and H4 charts.

In case of a daily close below 1.1030, bearswill push the pair towards 1.0800 and even further to sub-level of 1.0500. Until the pair closes below 1.1280, these levels are valid.

Intraday: The max bulls can make is 1.1150 or 1.1180 at today's session. Use raises to sell favoring today's trend. Supports is found at 1.1070 and 1.1030. Selling is available below 1.1030 towards 1.1000, 1.0980, and 1.0960 initially. Later, it is likely to extend towards 1.0900, 1.0850, and 1.0820. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1120, 1.1160, and 1.1180. In case bulls manage to breach 1.1180, small risky buying will be available towards 1.1200 and 1.1220.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 03, 2015

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NZD/USD is likely to consolidate toda after hitting a five-year low of 0.6659 on Thursday. The price is undermined by lower dairy prices, diminished investor risk appetite, divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances and kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD downside is limited by weaker sentiment toward the US dollar (ICE spot dollar index last 96.08 versus 96.32 early Thursday).

Technical comment:

The daily is chart still negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6660. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6630. The pivot point stands at 0.6800. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6780 and the second target at 0.6825.

Resistance levels: 0.6780 0.6825 0.6850

Support levels: 0.6660 0.6630 0.66

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 03, 2015

The AUD fell sharply after retail sales data. The indicator rose 0.2% in May 2015. This follows a 0.3% rise in April 2015 and a 0.3% rise in March 2015.

AUD was trading at 0.7585 during the Asian session approaching the support zone. The strong support zone is found between 0.7550 and 0.7530 rounded to 0.7500. In case bulls lose 0.7500, close below these zone another 250 pips available on the down side with a target at 0.7250. Before further next leg down, we expect the pair to pull back slightly. In the hourly chart, mild positive divergence is taking place. Until the pair holds 0.7500, risky traders can try buying trade.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 03, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold dropped lower towards $1,156.00 before pulling sharply back into $1,170.00. As we can see here, the metal is trading around $1,166.00/67.00, which is also converging with the past support turned resistance and a fibonacci 0.382 resistance of the drop from $1,188.00 to $1,156.00 levels respectively. A bearish reversal would warrant a re-test of $1,156.00 here, while a break over the resistance line would challenge $1,180.00. It is recommended to remain long on positions taken earlier with risk at $1,150.00 but initiate fresh positions only after a break of $1,180.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,150.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,180.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $1,150.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 03, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver tested the level of $15.50 for the third time yesterday before bouncing back towards $15.80. The metal has been forming decreasing resistance making support wedge formation as depicted here, with $15.50 as support. A break below $15.50 would be extremely bearish and push the price lower towards at least $14.30, while a break above $16.00 would confirm a triple bottom formation at $15.50. It is hence recommended to keep long positions taken earlier with risk at $15.30, but initiate fresh long positions only after a confirmed break above $16.00/20. Immediate support is seen at $15.50 followed by $15.30 and lower. Resistance is seen at $16.00/20 followed by $17.30 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at $15.30, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 03, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has been drifting sideways between 136.00 and 137.00 for a couple of trading sessions. The pair is seen to be trading at 136.55 at the moment looking for a potential breakout to the upside. Please note that the pair had dropped below the trend-line support earlier but did not break of the level at 133.00. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk below 133.00. mmediate support is seen at 134.00 (interim) followed by 133.00, 132.00, and lower. Resistance is seen at 139.00 (interim) followed by 140.00, 141.00, and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 03, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair was pushed through 1.4835 yesterday. taking stops out and reversing sharply lower. The pair is seen to be trading around 1.4710/15 at the moment. As we discussed earlier, the pair has potential to rally higher through at least 1.5000, but it needs to produce a meaningful retracement before resuming its rally. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for a confirmed trading setup before committing trades. Immediate support is seen at 1.4500 followed by 1.4400, 1.4250, and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4830 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 3 - 2015

2015-07-03-EURNZD-4H.png

Technical summary:

We saw a break above resistance at 1.6587 yesterday, which indicated that more upside pressure should be expected towards 1.7053 and even 1.7154 in wave v. Now, we would like to see minor support at 1.6495 protecting the downside for a breakout above 1.6555 confirming the next rally higher to 1.6856 and higher to 1.7053.

Only an unexpected break below the support at 1.6304 will delay the expected upside pressure closer to 1.6100.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6588 and has placed our stop at 1.6360.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 3 - 2015

2015-07-03-EURJPY-4H.png

Technical summary:

We are going nowhere at the moment, which is clearly showing the ongoing fight between bulls and bears. We continue to be cautious bulls as long as support at 135.85 and more importantly as long as support at 133.07 protects the downside. That said we need a breakout above 138.68 to add renewed upside pressure towards 141.06 on the way higher to 144.03.

An unexpected breakout below support at 133.07 will indicate that the rally from 126.05 was only corrective and a new test of this low should be seen on the way lower to 119.90.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy break above 137.45 with stop placed at 135.75.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 03, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI is due. The US will not release economic data today. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1138.

Strong Resistance:1.1132.

Original Resistance: 1.1121.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1110.

Target Inner Area: 1.1084.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1058.

Original Support: 1.1047.

Strong Support: 1.1036.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1030.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 03, 2015

!USDJPY.jpg

During the Asian session, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.61.

Resistance. 2: 123.37.

Resistance. 1: 123.13.

Support. 1: 123.83.

Support. 2: 122.59.

Support. 3: 122.35.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for July 03, 2015

The current cycles at the USDX are still showing enough room for upside moves at least in the daily chart. Because of it, the Index could test the resistance zone of 96.57 again where it could try a breakout in order to reach new highs. On the other hand, the USDX could make a pullback.

USDXDaily.png

In H1 chart, the USDX is trading above the support level of 95.89, which is still producing a strong demand zone and the price action gets irregular when that territory is reached. By the way, we're still seeing the current moves as corrective and any opportunity to buy at lows will be a good strategy, but with caution.

USDXH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57

Daily chart's support levels: 95.74 / 94.66

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.65

H1 chart's support levels: 96.13 / 95.89

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.38, take profit is at 96.65, and stop loss is at 96.13.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 03, 2015

On the daily chart, GBP/USD is still trying to stay above the 200 SMA looking for an opportunity to rebound above that zone and to perform a rally towards the resistance level of 1.5755. However, a breakout at the support level of 1.5543 will open the doors for a testing around the level of 1.5450 in the short term. The MACD indicator is still at negative territory.

GBPUSDDaily.png

The current structure remains neutral in an intraday basis, because the pair has been trading above the support level of 1.5589, a very strong zone which is rejecting bearish action. That's why we would like to see a rally until the resistance zone of 1.5650, where a breakout could happen. The MACD indicator is at positive territory.

GBPUSDH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5755 / 1.5898

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5650 / 1.5687

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5589 / 1.5537

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5650, take profit is at 1.5687, and stop loss is at 1.5614.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 3, 2015

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair is in an uptrend forming strong support at the level of 1.5459. It should be noted that the support is coinciding with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels in the H4 chart. So, the level of 1.5460 is the key level to confirm the bullish market. Moreover, according to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.5460 and 1.5713. As it is known, if the trend is upward, the strength of the currency pair will be defined as following: GBP is in uptrend and USD is in downtrend. For that, the market will probably indicate the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.5460 because the weekly support 1 will act as strong support in coming hours. Thenceforward, the GBP/USD pair will give a good sign to buy above 1.5460 with the first target at 1.5666 in order to test the daily pivot point. Also, if the trend is able to break it, it will continue towards 1.5713. However, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, your stop loss should be placed above 1.5766. At the same time, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.5541. Additionally, it should be noted that the range will be about 110 pips today. Sell at 1.5541 with the first target at 1.5503, it might resume to 1.5460 in order to test the weekly support.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 3, 2015

NZDUSDH1.png

Overview:

  • The key level has set at 0.6797 because it is representing the bearish wave in the H1 chart. Therefore, this level is going to act as the strong resistance diring the first week of July, 2015. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.6797 and 0.6661. Consequently, sell at 0.6797 with the first target at 0.6703, then it will continue towards 0.6661 in order to test the weekly double bottom. On the other hand, if the trend fails to close below the pivot point at the level of 0.6661 in the daily time frame. Hence, buy above 0.6661 with a target at 0.6790 in the short term. It should also be noticed that the level of 0.6750 represents minor resistance .Review the market volatility before investing because the sight price may have already been reached and the recent scenario might have become invalidated.

Tips:

  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the price will go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 3, 2015

EUR/USD: This is a bearish market. Based on what has been happening here since Monday, it would be nice to sell in the context of the downtrend. The support line at 1.0950 was tested at the beginning of the week, owing to the gap down that occurred then. Now it is assumed that the same support line would be tested again today or next week.

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USD/CHF: Following the severe bearish plunge that happened on Monday, the USD/CHF pair has rallied vividly. The price has gone upwards by 250 pips from the support level of 0.9250 testing the resistance level of 0.9500. There is a shallow bearish retracement in the market, but the resistance level of 0.9500 could be tested again and eventually breached to the upside.

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GBP/USD: As forecasted, the GBP/USD pair broke below the distribution territory of 1.5650, testing the recalcitrant accumulation territory around 1.5600. The recent equilibrium phase is over and it has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. There is a possibility that this is the beginning of a protracted downtrend.

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USD/JPY: It would be recommended that the USD/JPY pair should be avoided until there would be a clear directional movement. There are short-term swings which could be deceptive, but there would be a strong trending movement once the supply level at 124.00 is breached to the upside or when the demand level at 122.00 is breached to the downside.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has started moving sideways and unless there is a significant event affecting EUR (especially an event that makes the currency move seriously), the sideways movement would continue. However, there would be a breakout in favor of the bear or the bull soon.

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GBP/USD could be ready for a 600 pip move

The GBP/USD pair began moving in uptrend on April 13 after testing 1.4566. The price manages to reach new highs without giving any signals on potential reversal downwards.

Currently, the pair is testing 200 moving average and the uptrend trendline at the same time. In addition, the Demarker oscilator is testing the uptrend trendline being in the oversold zone. Clearly, the trend is upward and a rate is near the key support at 1.5555. This means that a great risk/reward opportunity is offered.

Consider buying while the price remains between the current level of 1.5605 and a low of 1.5555. The target area is near (+/- 20pips) 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent corrective wave down, which is marked R3 (1.6158) on the chart. Daily close below S1 can be used as a signal for stop loss.

Support: 1.5555

Resistance: 1.5785, 1.5927, 1.6158

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