BITCOIN Analysis for February 19, 2019

Bitcoin has been riding a rally after consolidating at the edge of $3,600 for a few days. The bullish pressure turned impulsive and non-volatile after the third bounce off the $3,600 was hit which was carried by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line all the way towards $4,000 resistance area where it is currently holding with certain volatility. Currently the price is moving lower amid bearish pressure from the area of $4,000 from where the price will make a correction under bearish pressure before the price resumes the bullish momentum to break above $4,000 and reach upcoming price area of $4,250 and later towards $4,500 in the coming days. The price may close above $4,000 that will encourage a further continuation of this non-volatile bullish trend in the future.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 19, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

The EUR/USD pair was demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270) with early signs of bearish reversal probability.

A bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285) (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel).Stop Loss to be located below 1.1225 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

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AUD / USD: RBA Protocol gives more questions than answers

The minutes of the RBA meeting was somewhat controversial, leaving more questions than answers. The rhetoric was "dovish" in nature, although the ambiguity of the wording allows for a different assessment of the prospects for the Australian currency.

In today's Asian session, the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of its last meeting. This document turned out to be somewhat controversial, leaving more questions than answers. In general, the protocol's rhetoric was "dovish" in nature, although the ambiguity of the wording allows for a different assessment of the prospects for the Australian currency.

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At the January meeting of the RBA, the regulator lowered the forecast for economic growth in the country to three percent from the previous value of 3.5%. In the protocol, this situation is explained by the fact that the level of uncertainty at the moment has increased in many ways. First of all, we are talking about the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the world economy as a whole, as well as the Australian consumer activity. Here it is really necessary to note the fact that the volume indicator of retail sales in January collapsed in the negative area for the first time since February 2018. It reached the level of -0.4% with the forecast of a decline to zero.

Consumer sentiment index and activity index in the service sector also show weak dynamics, which is partly due to low wage growth. In fact, this figure has been stagnant for a long time despite the decline in unemployment. All of these lead to the fact that inflation in Australia remains consistently low at the level of 1.8% per year, while the target level of the Reserve Bank is set at around two percent.

Separately, the regulator stopped on the situation in the Australian housing market. Let me remind you that housing has fallen in price in almost all major cities of Australia especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Prices have been falling for 13 of the last 15 months and over the past three months, the rate of decline has accelerated significantly. Since the peak recorded in the fall of 2017, property in Australia has fallen in price by more than 6 percent. To some surprise, the Australian regulator took a rather ambiguous position on this issue. The ministry noted that the cost of housing has been actively growing for a long time, thus the current price reduction "is likely to have only a small impact on the economy." At the same time, the regulator warned that if the current dynamics is "stronger", this factor will not only reduce the level of consumption.

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Naturally, members of the RBA did not ignore more global issues. The Central Bank is still concerned about the resumption of the trade war between China and the United States, as this trade conflict is a "significant risk" for the global economic outlook, according to the RBA. Also in Australia, they are seriously concerned about the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the pace of which turned out to be stronger than their own forecasts.

Summarizing all the above, the regulator made a very ambiguous conclusion. According to the Central Bank, the interest rate can either increase or decrease in the future and the probability of the implementation of these options is "almost the same". However, at the moment there are no arguments in favor of a rate change (at least in the short term), the regulator will adhere to stability in this matter.

The Australian dollar reacted to the published protocol with a minimum decrease by only 30 points, dropping to the bottom of the 71st figure. The indistinct rhetoric of the RBA did not allow the bears of the AUD/USD pair to seize the initiative, hence, the price did not even test the boundaries of the 70th figure. n contrast to the head of the regulator Philip Low, the regulator members voiced a more vague position that does not allow us to unequivocally talk about increasing the likelihood of a rate cut this year. The vast majority of experts surveyed also tend to think that the Central Bank will maintain the status quo in the foreseeable future. More than half of them believe that the rate will remain unchanged throughout this and next year, at least until the first quarter of 2021.

It is worth recalling that on Friday (February 22), the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, will speak in the country's parliament where he will report to members of the Standing Committee on Economics of the House of Representatives. The theme of his presentation involves a broad assessment of the current situation so he can more clearly determine the prospects for the country's monetary policy. On the other hand, given the rhetoric of the published protocol, it is unlikely to deviate from the announced course, especially against the background of a possible "truce" between the United States and China. The dynamics of the labor market can also have a significant impact on Aussie. The unemployment rate should remain at the same five-percent mark but the increase in the number of employees will decrease slightly to 15.2 thousand, relative to the previous month.

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Overall, Aussie continues to trade in the flat, ranging in the 100 price point range at 0.7060-0.7160. The levels of support and resistance are slightly lower and slightly higher than the indicated boundaries. Thus, approaching the "round" mark of 0.70, there is a strong support level of 0.7030 where the lower line of the Bollinger Bands coincided with the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud at this price point on the daily chart.

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February 19, 2019 : GBP/USD is demonstrating bullish breakout outside the H4 bearish channel.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 where (50% Fibonacci level) as well as a previous prominent top are located (Highlighted in BLUE).

Last week, lack of bullish demand was demonstrated around 1.2920 until Friday when significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This led to the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Expected bullish targets are projected towards 1.2970, 1.3040 and 1.3200.

Bullish persistence above 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) is mandatory so that the current bullish movement can pursue towards the mentioned bullish targets.

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EURUSD: The report from the ZEW Research Center and Eurozone surplus let Euro buyers down

Eurozone data in the first half of the day once again limited the upward potential in euros, which was observed at the beginning of the week. Now, bulls, without updating the larger support levels and building a new upward price channel, are unlikely to easily break through this week's high near 1.1330 and catch at 1.1370 and 1.1440 highs.

The euro began to decline after the report that the surplus of the current account of the balance of payments in the eurozone in December 2018 continued to decline rapidly. This is due primarily to trade sanctions and the weakening of exports.

According to the data of the European Central Bank, the positive balance of the current account of the euro zone's balance of payments in December amounted to 16 billion euros against 23 billion euros in November 2018. Let me remind you that back in December 2017, the surplus was 29 billion euros.

German data also did not make investors happy. As indicated in the report, the outpacing index of economic expectations for February of this year in Germany rose only slightly after a decline in January. A serious drop was observed in the current conditions index.

According to a report by the ZEW Research Center, the index of economic expectations in Germany in February 2019 rose to -13.4 points from -15.0 points in January, while economists predicted that in February the index would be -14.0 points.

The index of current conditions in Germany in February fell to 15.0 points from 27.6 points in January.

The center noted that there are currently no signs of a quick recovery in the unstable German economy, as evidenced by the slowdown in economic growth last year.

Let me remind you that last week a report from Deutsche Bank was published, in which economists expected that Germany's GDP would grow by only 0.5% this year.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bearish scenario, which I drew attention in my morning review, began to work out. At the moment, a breakthrough of the level of 1.1290 may lead to a larger decrease in the trading instrument to the area of the lows of last week, up to the update of the support of 1.1235. Buyers of risky assets at the end of today, of course, it is desirable to return to the resistance level of 1.1290, which will build a new lower limit of the upward price channel.

The British pound remained "pushed" in one place after the release of the report, in which, on the one hand, at the end of 2018, the number of jobs in the UK continued to increase, while, on the other hand, wage growth remained unchanged and turned out to be worse than expected economists.

Given the continuing nervousness regarding the country's future withdrawal from the EU, this report as a whole can be called good.

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According to the data, the number of unemployed in the UK from October to December 2018 decreased by 14,000 compared with the previous period. The unemployment rate was 4%.

As noted above, the quarterly wage growth rate remained unchanged, at 3.4%, while economists had expected growth of 3.5%. Real wages increased by 1.2%.

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Control zones of NZD/USD pair on 02/19/19

Today, the pair is trading near the a control zone, which is the defining support. If the course fails to consolidate below this zone, the upward movement will continue and the maximum of a week will be updated with a 70% probability.

At the height of the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD pair approaches the defining support of the a CZ at 0.6820-0.6813. A test of this zone will indicate further priority. The emergence of demand will oblige to open a long position, the first goal of which will be the local maximum of the current week. The main target for growth will be the 1/2 CZ of 0.6950-0.6943, which was formed from a weekly CZ. The last upward movement is still an impulse that makes purchases profitable at a distance.

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On the higher timeframe, the movement looks like a long-term zone of accumulation, therefore, the achievement of the February maximum can be decisive for the bullish momentum. This requires a partial closing position when updating the weekly high.

An alternative model will be developed in case the pair can break through and consolidate below the 1/2 CZ of 0.6820-0.6813. This will lead to the formation of a bearish momentum and the emergence of new goals on the downward movement. The first goal will be the weekly CZ of 0.6750-0.6736, which will coincide with the zone of the February offer.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on February 19. Weak labor market data did not allow the pound to resume growth

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Weak data on the labor market did not allow the pound to resume growth, and only a real breakthrough and consolidation above resistance 1.2926 will give a new impetus to GBP / USD, which will lead the pair to a new maximum of 1.2986 and 1.3047, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a downward correction, which can be observed this afternoon, amid lack of clarity in negotiations between the British Prime Minister and EU representatives, long positions in GBP / USD can be returned to a false breakdown from support 1.2868 or rebound from a minimum of 1.2812.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The bears managed to form a false breakdown and return below the support level of 1.2926 in the first half of the day, and while the trade is below this range, there is a possibility of a decrease in the pound, which will lead to a larger scale to the minimum area of 1.2868 and 1.2812, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of continued GBP / USD growth in the second half of the day or news on Brexit, new short positions can be considered after updating the highs of 1.2986 and 1.3047.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market or the decline of the pound after the unsuccessful breakdown of the level of 1.2930.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2945 will lead to a net increase in the pound. The lower limit in the 1.2892 area will limit the fall, but its breakthrough will lead to a strong decline in GBP / USD.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Control zones of GBP/USD pair on 02/19/19

The movement of the pair yesterday allowed the instrument to remain in the flat phase. It should be noted that the fall was stopped at weekly CZ of 1.2832-1.2793, which makes this an important range for medium-term support.

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Last week, a local accumulation zone was formed, therefore the 1/2 CZ of 1.2983-1.2964 is currently an important resistance. While the pair is trading below this zone, the bearish momentum is considered to be incomplete. The probability of returning to the February low is 70%. The most favorable prices for the sale of the instrument are within the a CZ as indicated above.

Working in the accumulation phase involves finding favorable prices for both buying and selling. Bargain prices are usually located near the extremes of past weeks. If there is a coincidence with the control zones, then such levels must be used to set limit orders.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair can break through and consolidate above the level of 1.2983 in today's US session. This will make it possible to consider the completion of the downward impulse, which will make it possible to look already for purchases headed towards a new impulse in tomorrow's European session.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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The cost of oil can temporarily reach $ 70 per barrel

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According to experts of a major analytical company JBC Energy, oil prices in the short term may increase to $ 70 per barrel, and then they will return to previous levels.

On Monday, February 18, oil quotes reached a three-month high against the background of optimism in negotiations between the US and China, as well as news of active cuts in oil production by Saudi Arabia. After the fall in the cost of Brent oil by more than 42% from the beginning of October to the end of December 2018, this North Sea variety has risen in price by almost 34%. Oil prices were supported by both rally in stock markets and the belief that Washington and Beijing would not impose mutual restrictions.

According to analysts, the reduction of world oil supply, as well as progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China, will further contribute to the growth of oil prices. Support for the black gold market will continue to provide the OPEC report, according to which the volume of production by the countries of the cartel fell in January by 800 thousand barrels, to 30.81 million barrels per day. Recall that the lion's share of the decline in oil production fell on Saudi Arabia.

JBC Energy believes that there are a number of factors capable of boosting oil prices in the short term. In addition to positive news, these include shipments. For example, in April of this year, the Angolan authorities plan to carry out 43 shipments of raw materials in the amount of 41.3 million barrels, at 1.38 barrels per day. This is less than in March 2019, which is scheduled for 1.45 million barrels per day.

By Tuesday, February 19, WTI oil prices showed an increase of 0.85%, to $ 56.06 a barrel. The cost of Brent crude increased by 0.3%, to $ 66.45 a barrel. Earlier, quotes reached a high of $ 66.83, almost approaching the peak of November 2018.

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Trump and the court: American President Donald Trump and the US administration were sued

The absence of important fundamental statistics has led to a balance in the market. If in the first half of the day on Monday, the euro showed a slight strengthening in tandem with the US dollar, then in the North American session, there was a decrease in EURUSD.

Meanwhile, all attention is focused on the situation related to the imposition of a state of emergency in the United States by American President Donald Trump. This decision was taken to secure funding for the wall on the southern border of the country, which was not approved by the Democrats.

Yesterday, a representative of the US Democratic Party signaled that he was preparing to protest this decision, which would make it difficult for Trump to fulfill one of the key electoral promises. California Attorney General Xavier Becerra said he plans to bring the administration to court with other states to impose a state of emergency on Friday.

His promises were not long in coming. Already today, it became known that 16 states, including California and New York, filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for declaring a state of emergency.

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A lawsuit was filed with the District Court of Northern California. It demands that the president stop spending funds on the construction of the border wall without the permission of Congress, which is a clear disregard of the US president, the constitutional separation of powers.

It is important to note that not only the President of the United States but also the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Homeland Security were brought in as the respondent.

The development of the current situation may adversely affect the quotations of the US dollar, which will allow risky assets to continue their upward correction.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, trade is maintained in a wide side channel. Support levels are seen in the area of 1.1260 and 1.1235, while buyers today are again required to cope with resistance in the area of 1.1330. Only a breakthrough in this range will strengthen the demand for the euro, which will resume an upward momentum with a test of new highs in the region of 1.1360 and 1.1400.

The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar after the publication of the Reserve Bank of Australia of its plans and economic forecasts.

The RBA said that it would now be more correct to keep the key rate unchanged in order to maintain stability and confidence, which will lead to further progress in reducing unemployment and rising inflation. The reasons for changing interest rates in the short term are not serious enough.

The RBA continues to refer to the changing situation in the global economy and uncertainty. However, the main changes in the forecasts are associated with a slowdown in retail sales, lower housing prices and a slowdown in consumption.

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GBP / USD. February 19th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". UK ministers and their deputies may resign

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 55.7283

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, February 19, with great difficulty remains slightly above the moving average line. However, in the near future, the pair may return to the area below the MA, as only disappointing messages continue to come from the UK. This time, the information concerns the meeting of Theresa May with some ministers, during which May called to agree to postpone Brexit to a later time, probably due to the fact that few people already believe in the opportunity to agree on the terms of Brexit for the remaining six weeks. Otherwise, the UK government may leave immediately 22 people - ministers and their deputies. Recall that during the past year, 5 ministers voluntarily left their posts. There are no other posts on the Brexit at the moment. The main thing for the pound sterling is that there are no positive messages. Does the question still remain on the agenda and on what basis does the pound grow? Today in the UK, data on the unemployment rate, the average wage and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in February will be published. The forecasts are very optimistic, especially in terms of wages (its growth rates are expected to accelerate), however, we believe that in practice, everything can be much worse. The UK is extremely rare in the last 2 years, we are pleased with positive macroeconomic statistics.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2878

S2 - 1.2848

S3 - 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2909

R2 - 1.2939

R3 - 1.2970

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD has fixed above the MA, therefore the trend in the instrument temporarily changed to ascending. Now it is recommended to consider long positions with targets of 1.2939 and 1.2970, but after turning Heikin Ashi upward.

Short positions will again become relevant after the price is fixed back below the moving average line. The targets, in this case, will be the levels of 1.2848 and 1.2817.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 19th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The second day in a row without news

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -2.3799

With grief in half, the EUR / USD pair managed yesterday to consolidate above the moving average line. Hours for 2-3. After that, the pair returned to the area below the moving average, respectively, may try to resume the downtrend. The probability of a hike to the top, the level of 1.1500 remains, but for this, you first need to confidently overcome the moving average line. As long as the pair is trading below it, the growth of the European currency has nothing to dream of. Despite the fact that to continue the downward trend, fundamental grounds are also needed. Now, this option looks more promising, as the bulls have shown their overt weakness in recent days. To date, Europe and the States have not planned any more or less significant publication. This means that traders will have to rely only on the receipt of significant information from the White House, on the negotiations with Beijing on trading conditions or on the topic of building a wall on the border with Mexico. However, it should be noted that market participants do not react very eagerly to the data on these topics. So today, in any case, one should not expect a strong movement. The intraday trend is downward, as indicated by the Heikin Ashi indicator.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trying to resume movement down. Thus, short positions with the target of 1.1230 are now relevant, but there are no grounds for going further down now.

Purchase orders are recommended to be considered not earlier than new and confident overcoming of the MA for bulls with the first target of 1.1353. However, the bulls are now extremely weak.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 19. Eurozone's weak data put pressure again on the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Weak data on the current positive balance of the account of the balance of payments in the eurozone, as well as, the decrease in the current conditions index in Germany led to a fall in the euro in the first half of the day. Now, trading is conducted below the support level of 1.1288 and customers to return on it. Only this will help to expect a correction to the area of yesterday's high at 1.1332. In case of further EUR/USD decline, it is best to consider new long positions after updating the lower limit of the upward price channel, which now coincides with the support level of 1.1262.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers are required to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.1288, which will only dampen the pressure on the euro by the second half of the day and lead to a sale to the area of larger support of 1.1262, where the upper limit of the upward price channel passes. A breakthrough of this area will completely cancel out the plan for the growth of EUR/USD pair and will allow to update the lower limit in the area of 1.1235, where I recommend to take profits. In the case of the euro rise in the second half of the day, it is safe to rely on short positions to rebound from the resistance of 1.1332.

More in the video forecast for February 19

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade again returned under the 30- and 50-moving average, which indicates a possible continued pressure on the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction, growth will be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1325.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of EUR / CHF for February 19

Large TF:

The direction of price fluctuations of the cross in the last six months is given by the rising wave. The wave has the form of a standard plane. In the structure, there is a clear sequence (A + B + C).

Small TF:

The rising wave of January 3 completes the larger structure. From January 30, the price is adjusted. In its process, there is a small probability of a short-term puncture of the lower boundary of the calculated zone.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The period of flat movement of the cross can continue until the end of the current month. The wave algorithm indicates a continuation of price growth, but its potential is small. Purchasing can only be justified with intraday trading.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1350 / 1.1300

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of GBP / USD for February 19

Large TF:

The wave of the main trend of the pound major since April is moving to the "south" of the chart. The trend structure does not look complete, therefore counter price movements are nothing more than a correction.

Small TF:

In the ascending wave model of December 12, a correction phase develops in recent weeks. In the last days, an intermediate pullback was formed, after which the wave will continue.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The current decline in the pair will continue soon, as supporters of the interday trading style will be able to take advantage of. For longer investments, traders need to wait for the completion of the entire downward wave.

Resistance zones:

- 1.2970 / 1.3020

Support areas:

- 1.2700 / 1.2650

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Simplified wave analysis. Overview of EUR / GBP for February 19

Large TF:

The direction of the price movements of the cross since April last year sets the algorithm of the rising wave. It has the appearance of a standard plane. In the structure, the middle part (B) is nearing completion.

Small TF:

From January 25, the price will form an upward wave, which may be the beginning of a bullish section in a larger model. The first part is completed, and in the last 2 weeks, a correction is formed in the flat.

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Forecast and recommendations:

This week, the flat mood of price movements may already be completed. The level of movement is still underdeveloped until the trend reversal of the past month, but the continuation of the rise will be for sure. A supporter of intraday can make purchases in a reduced lot.

Resistance zones:

- 0.8790 / 0.8840

Support areas:

- 0.8700 / 0.8650

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on February 19. The level of 1.1285 confidently keeps the pair above itself

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart, after the formation of a new bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, reversed in favor of the American currency and began the process of falling in the direction of the correction level of 0.0% - 1.1218. Quoting quotes from the level of 1.1269 or from the level of 1.1218 will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and a slight increase in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. Passing the peak of divergence will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair returned to the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285 but did not close yet. As a result, the pair can rebound from this level with a turn in favor of the euro currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Closing the course of the pair below the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285 will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with a view to 1.1358 if the pair disconnects from the level of 1.1269 (or 1.1218), and the Stop Loss order is below 1.1269 (or 1.1218).

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with the target of 1.1218 since a bearish divergence was formed.

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Investors are waiting for the resolution of the US-China trade crisis

The focus of the market is still on the vigorous activity of the American president, which is aimed to focus mainly on itself, according to his winged expression. Donald Trump continues to put pressure on the countries that are US economic partners around the world while gaining some resistance in Europe from Angela Merkel, who actively protects Nord Stream II and more active opposition in the negotiation process with China.

On Monday, it became known that the next round of trade negotiations between Washington and Chinese capital in Beijing was over and will resume in the capital of America this week, on Thursday and Friday.

On financial markets, Monday's activity was noticeably low against the background of the absence of American investors due to the weekend in the US President's Day. However, in our opinion, the activity would still remain low due to the uncertainty resulting from the negotiations between the Americans and the Chinese. Despite the optimistic reports from Trump, competent sources from the opposite side indicate that things are not that smooth. This is holding the market back with the real risk associated when Washington will announce on March 1 an increase in customs duties on goods from China in the amount of $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%. Although the American president had previously said that the negotiation process could be prolonged and if it progresses successfully, the risks still remain.

Given this balance of power, we believe that the overall lateral dynamics in the currency markets will continue until the end of the month.

Another important event will take place this week which is the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting on monetary policy. Despite statements from Fed members and Chair Jerome Powell that a pause may be made in raising interest rates, it is unclear whether the regulator will stop reducing its balance or not. This is even more important than the interest rate factor, as a continuation of the balance reduction will noticeably reduce the amount of dollar liquidity that automatically hit the US equity market, which over the past years has inadequately expanded in our opinion given the gap with the realities of the American economy.

It can be assumed that if the meeting protocol does not show a clear and precise attitude of the Federal Reserve to reduce the balance. This can once again put pressure through the US on world markets with the preponderate state of uncertainty.

Given these likely prospects, we believe that the US dollar will continue to balance and remain in a horizontal trend against competing currencies.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1300. It continues to consolidate in the lateral range against the background of multidirectional forces, which do not allow it to not only grow markedly but also decline. Today, it may continue to decline to 1.1250, if economic statistics from Germany and the eurozone are weaker than forecasts.

The AUD/USD pair is below the level of 0.7125. On the headlines, the minutes of the RBA meeting showed that the regulator will not rush to increase interest rates. On this wave, the pair may continue to fall to 0.7060.

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Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for February 19. New bearish divergence for the dollar

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on a 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the American dollar after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator and began the process of returning to the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2869. Quoting the quotes on February 19 from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.2765.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US currency around the correctional level of 50.0% - 1.2943 and started falling in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878. Rebounding the pair's quotations from the Fibo level of 61.8% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the British pound and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2943. Closing the pair below the level of 61.8% will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.2799.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 15, 2019, and January 25, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with a target of 1.2943 and a Stop Loss order under the level of 61.8% if the pair bounces off of the level of 1.2878 (hourly chart).

New sales of the GBP / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1.2799 and a Stop Loss order above the 50.0% level if the pair closes below the 1.2878 level (hourly chart).

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Trading plan for 02/19/2019

As expected, due to the celebration of President's Day in the United States, no major market turmoil happened. After all, there was no macroeconomic data either. So you can say the day was boring and mundane. In particular, data will be published in the construction sector of the euro area, the growth rate of which should accelerate from 0.9% to 2.1%. As an additional argument, there are data on industrial production in Italy, and it is predicted that its decline by 2.0% will be replaced by a growth of 2.3%. Nevertheless, these data are rather interesting as preparation and some warm-up before the publication of data on the UK labor market, which is the main event of the day. Although the unemployment rate itself should remain unchanged, wage data can lend strength to a pound. The fact is that the growth rate of the average wage without premiums can accelerate from 3.3% to 3.4%. But what is more interesting for investors is the possible acceleration of the average wage growth rate, taking into account premiums from 3.4% to 3.5%.

The euro/dollar currency pair once again focused on the range level of 1.1270 / 1.1300. Probably assume that the amplitude fluctuations within the band level, in an attempt to go above it.

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The currency pair pound/dollar after the intensive course reached a periodic level of 1.2920, where it felt resistance and slowed down. Probably assume a temporary stagnation-rollback, wherein the case of fixation higher than 1.2920, we will open the way to 1.2960-1.2980.

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Forecast of EUR / USD for February 19, 2019

EUR / USD

On Monday, the euro was up for 40 points but having met on the four-hour chart with the resistance of the Kruzenshtern line, it began to weaken. The Marlin oscillator signal line on H4 also turned down. In order to generate a signal, it must go to the zone of negative numbers, which in the price chart, can correspond to the level of 1.1290 - the minimum of January 24 - the price should be fixed below this signal level. The Marlin indicates growth. Overcoming the Kruzenshtern line on H4 (1.1320) will re-launch the rising scenario. The first goal is 1.1358, and in case of a mandatory fixation above it, because the Kruzenshtern daily scale line is close to the price channel line 8% of the February decline. In other words, in the range of 1.1290-1.1320, the euro is in a neutral position.

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Today, economic data on the euro area and optimistic forecasts are published. The balance of payments for December may increase from 20.3 billion euros to 21.4 billion, the ZEW eurozone business sentiment index for February may rise from -20.9 to -18.2. Data can contribute to the development of a growth scenario. Also, yesterday's information from the head of the European Commission, Mr. J. Juncker, about Trump's promise not to raise tariffs on European cars could be developed.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 19, 2019

analytics5c6bf067c341c.png

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

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Side trend in the currency markets continued

Last week, the foreign exchange market continued to show uncertain dynamics. There is a lot of reasons for this, which by their influence and some factors lead to the rope pulling effect. The dollar drops against the main currencies and gets support against others.

The main negative for the rate of the American currency is the intrusive signals of some Fed members about the need for a pause in raising interest rates and Lael Brainard even agreed to stop the process of reducing the bank's balance sheet. At the same time, for example, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic believes that it is too early to make a decision on changing the exchange rate while assessing the prospects for the country's economy is still very high. In his opinion, the likelihood of a single increase in interest rates is still valid.

Another important factor that brings uncertainty is the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing which dominates the markets. Despite the positive reports of the American president, there is no serious reason to hope that the trade war will take a milder form if it does not stop. The weakening growth of the Chinese economy has already had a negative impact on Europe, which is already aggravated by the Brexit problem. The slowdown in the growth of the eurozone economy against the background of the risk of recession due to inflationary will definitely force the ECB not to take measures in changing the monetary policy, which puts pressure on the common currency rate.

At the moment, investors are waiting for updated data on US GDP and a noticeable drop in the growth rate may once again change the wind direction in financial markets, which may start to inflate the sails of the US dollar due to increased demand for it as a safe haven currency.

Summarizing, we note that our view on the short term remained the same yesterday. We expect to maintain overall lateral dynamics. A weak US GDP data will increase the demand for the dollar, which may again reach local highs but recall that this movement will be in line with the side trend.

Recall that Monday is a holiday in the US which limited the activity on the market.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 19, 2019

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BTC has been trading upwards. We found strong momentum on the upside and no signs of reversal, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The key resistance levels are seen at the price of $4.0645 and $4.200 (the key supply zone). The potential breakout of these supply zones would confirm a potential test of $4.483 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). The key support is set at the price of $3.750.

Trading recommendation: Bullish momentum on the gold. We are neutral on BTC since the price is close to the key resistance zone. Anyway, the momentum is bullish and you should watch only buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 19, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

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EUR/USD analysis for February 19, 2019

analytics5c6bea9504c4c.png

EUR/USD is trading sideways at the price of 1.1283. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, we found potential end of the upward correction (running flat) at the price of 1.1333, which is a sign that buying looks risky. EUR failed to test the high at 1.1340, which is a sign that buyers are weak. We also found the breakout of the intraday support trendline inside of the running flat trendlines, which is another sign of weakness. We expect re-test of the lower diagonal and potential even the breakout.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on EUR/USD from 1.1285 and protective stop at 1.1345. Profit targets are set at the price of 1.1233 and 1.1130.

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Analysis of Gold for February 19, 2019

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Gold eventually managed to break the key resistance at the price of $1.325.00 and on the way confirms the further upward continuation. We found the breakout of the bullish flag in the background, which is that bearish correction has ended. The key support remains at $1.301.00 and as long as the price doesn't go below, the trend is bullish. Pitchfork channel is confirming the potential test of the median line $1.345.00-1.350.00. Besides, there is the strong Fibonacci resistance at $1.350.00 (FE 100%)

R1: $1.332.20

R2: $1.334.80

R3: $1.338.80

Pivot: 1.328.50

S1: $1.325.50

S2: $1.321.40

S3: $1.318.80

Trading recommendation: We are bullish on the Gold from $1.328.00 and protective stop at $1.312.00. Profit target is set at the price of $1.350.00.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 19. The lack of the necessary news background prevents the euro from rising

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Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, February 18, trading ended on EUR / USD by 15 bp increase for the pair EUR / USD. Such a low market activity is quite understandable, since there is no news about it yesterday. Thus, the current wave marking has not changed in any way. Like before, I assume the completion of the construction of wave 3 or, possibly, c, and the transition of the pair to the construction of a new upward wave with the first targets located near the level of 23.6% on the older Fibonacci grid. At the same time, the trend segment of the last two or three days does not look quite convincing, which can lead to the complication of the entire wave marking of the instrument.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 127.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1356 - 23.6% Fibonacci

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair allegedly completed the construction of the downward wave 3. Thus, now I recommend buying with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1356, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci, and higher. A successful attempt to break through the levels of 127.2% and 0.0% Fibonacci will lead to a further decrease in the instrument and complicate the current wave marking.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 19. The growth of the British pound depends on Theresa May's negotiations

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, all attention will be focused on the report on the UK labor market. Good fundamental data will lead to a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2926, which will give new impetus to growth in the area of highs of 1.2986 and 1.3047, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a downward correction, which can be observed today in the first half of the day, amid lack of clarity in negotiations between the British prime minister and EU representatives, long positions in GBP/USD can be returned to a false breakdown from the support of 1.2868 or rebound from a low of 1.2812, where the lower limit of the ascending channel passes.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the area of the resistance of 1.2926 will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound in order to reduce and test the support of 1.2868, where I recommend to take profits. However, the main goal of sellers will be at least in the area of 1.2812, but even its test will not lead to the resumption of the downward trend. This requires an update of the level of 1.2769. In case of further growth of GBP/USD, after a good report on the labor market is released, you can take a closer look at short positions at the rebound from the high of 1.2986.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market and bullish advantage.

Bollinger bands

The pound's growth for today may limit the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2940. A break of the lower border around 1.2895 may lead to a larger decrease in the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 19. The eurozone consumer sentiment report might help the euro

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above the high around 1.1325 led to the euro's downward correction in the afternoon. Currently, buyers are counting on a good report on consumer sentiment in Germany and the eurozone, which may lead to the formation of a false breakdown in the first half of the day in the support area of 1.1288. This will be the first signal to buy euros, based on age and the test of yesterday's high in the area of 1.1332, where I recommend taking profits. The main target of the bulls will be the new resistance 1.1366. In case of a decline below the support level of 1.1288, I recommend that you look at long positions in EUR/USD on the support test of 1.1262 or on the rebound from the low of the month in the region of 1.1235.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro sellers can use eurozone statistics, and in case of weak reports, break below support at 1.1288, which will increase pressure on the pair and lead to a return to the area of a low of 1.1262 and 1.1235, where I recommend taking profits. In the upward correction is preserved in the first half of the day, the signal for opening short positions in the euro will be an unfortunate consolidation above the resistance of 1.1332. In a different scenario, it is possible to sell EUR/USD on a rebound from a large high around 1.1366.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1332 will limit the upward potential of the euro. A break of the lower border in the area of 1.1288 will increase the pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Forecast for USD/JPY on February 19, 2019

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen quickly completed the technical divergence of the marlin oscillator on a four-hour schedule from February 14 to 15. The stop occurred on the Krusenstern line. Now, if the signal line of the oscillator goes to the zone of positive numbers, the divergence can be considered completed. Visually, such a transition of the oscillator is possible when the price rises above yesterday's high of 110.67. In this case, we expect growth to the resistance of the price channel line at the level of 111.20. Consolidation above the level opens a spacious growth to 113.15.

If, however, the price goes down and consolidates below the Krusenstern line on H4 (110.34), then the target range 109.65-110.00 will become relevant. But in terms of its quality, the specified range is more likely not related to the target range, but to the support range. The difference in quality will subsequently affect the future price behavior - from it the price can increase sharply.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 19, 2019

EUR/USD visited again our first bounce target area and 38% Fibonacci retracement. This area of 1.1340-1.1350 is important short-term resistance. Breaking above it will open the way for a move towards 1.14.

analytics5c6bb8497236d.png

Green line - trend line support

Red line - major trend line resistance

Blue rectangle - short-term resistance

Black rectangle - bounce target if blue rectangle is broken

Black lines - bullish divergence

EUR/USD bounced again as expected but price only managed to reach the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Bulls need to break above the blue rectangle in order to hope for a bigger bounce towards 1.14. The RSI continues to provide a bullish divergence while being supported and making higher highs and higher lows. We are in a consolidation/correction phase and I would prefer to be neutral or bullish, waiting for higher levels to try a short position, where risk reward is better. For the medium-term trend to change price would need to recapture 1.15 and stay above it.

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Technical analysis for Gold for February 19, 2019

Gold price is making higher highs as expected after breaking above the short-term resistance at $1,317. In our past analysis I mentioned that $1,317 was the key resistance for more upside. Breaking above it would provide a bullish signal.

analytics5c6bb795c5f70.png

Purple lines - bullish channel

Yellow rectangle - major support

Black line - resistance

Gold price remains in a bullish trend as price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Support remains at $1,300 and if broken we could see the end of the up trend since August. Resistance and previous highs were broken yesterday but price remains around this area. As long as price is above $1,311 we continue to expect to see $1,330-40 area.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 19, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price might start to go down. The first lower target 1.1290 is a lower fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price might start to go down. The first lower target 1.1290 is a lower fractal.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (February 18)

By the end of the last trading week, the Euro / Dollar currency pair showed a volatility equal to the average daily 72 points. As a result, the quote retraced above the range level and was able to fix above this level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the attempt to resume the downward movement failed. After a wide amplitude, the price still returned to the range of the range level 1.1280 / 1.1300. Afterwards, the price was able to fix above this range level. Statistical data on industrial production in the United States showed a rapid decline from 4.1% to 3.8%. This is along with data on US retail sales published on Thursday (a decrease from 4, 1% to 2.3%). Now, we have a quite strong negative background on the dollar. Based on the results, it is obvious that the quote broke up.

analytics5c6a9abcbb13b.jpg

According to the economic calendar, there are no current news since the Presidential Day was celebrated in the States. Due to this timely pause, it can be said that trading volumes can be reduced. Of course, in the absence of news, you should not forget about the information background centered around the issue on Brexit.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a real possibility of a reversal .The quote is confidently fixed above the range level of 1.1280 / 1.1300, moving closer to the local maximum of 1.1340 of February 13 (the first attempt at rebound). This probably serves as a suggestion to converge with the value of 1.1340. In this case, there is a need to monitor the price behavior. If a price fixation will occur above this level, you can assume a movement to 1.1400-1.1440. Otherwise, there is a possibility to go back to the range level 1.1280 / 1.1300.

analytics5c6a9ad076ced.png

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider buying positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.1340, with the prospect of a move to 1.1400-1.1440.

- We consider selling positions in the case of temporary resistance in the area of 1.1340, with a reverse return to 1.1280 / 1.1300.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector , we can see that in the short and intraday perspective, there is an upward interest against the background of the recent jump. The medium-term outlook keeps the initial downward interest against the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 18 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 41 points. It is likely to assume that in case of a breakdown of the value of 1.1340, the volatility may continue its growth.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1340 *; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 19. An unexpected increase in the pound may be replaced by a stronger fall

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Wave counting analysis:

On February 18, the GBP / USD pair gained about 30 bp, but did not go beyond the maximum of the expected wave 2 or b. Therefore, there is a possibility that the pair will still continue the decline within the expected wave 3 or from the downward trend segment with targets located near the 61.8% and Fibonacci 76.4% levels. At the same time, going beyond the maximum of wave 2 or b will lead to the complication of the current wave marking, the need for its revision. Meanwhile, the news background remains on the side of the US dollar, as the UK is still unable to please the market. There are also no positive shifts in the Brexit negotiations.

Shopping goals:

1.3033 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward wave. Thus, now, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.2826 and 1.2734, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. It is advisable to place protective orders above 1.2957 (maximum of wave 2 or b).

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AUD/CHF Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

AUD/CHF is approaching its support at 0.7146 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 0.7179 (horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 1.8% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

AUD/CHF is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 0.7146. Stop loss at 0.7120. Take profit at 0.7179.

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EUR/AUD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

EUR/AUD is approaching its resistance at 1.5925 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.5856 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 98% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

EUR/AUD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.5925. Stop loss 1.5969. Take profit at 1.5856.

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