Technical analysis of CAD/CHF for April 08, 2016

After major support breakout below 0.7350, EUR/CAD continues trading below the 00 Moving Average. The Fibonacci applied to the first corrective wave after the breakout indicates that the 161.8% level has been broke while 261.8 has not been reached yet.

Currently price is forming a resistance around the 0.7300 psychological level, which had been rejected once. All in all, the trend is bearish and the pair is very likely to continue going lower if 0.7300 holds.

Consider selling CAD/CHF at the current level targeting either S2 (0.7190) or S3 (0.7125) as a final target. The stop loss should be well above R1 (0.7300)

Support: 0.7260, 0.7190, 0.7125

Resistance: 0.7300, 0.7370

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 8, 2016

Overview:

  • According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.6840 and 0.6723; for that we expect a range of 117 pips (0.6840 - 0.6723). Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6840 followed by 0.6902, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6723. So, the pair is trading below its resistance (0.6840). It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the resistance (0.6840). Moreover, the price spot of 0.6840 - 0.6850 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6850, sell below 0.6840 or 0.6850 with the first target at 0.6763 in order to test yesterday's bottom. Additionally, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6763, the market will decline further to 0.6723 so as to test the weekly support 1. On the other hand, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.6840 is not breached.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 8, 2016

Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair fell from the level of 0.9640 to the bottom at 0.9550 yesterday. Today, the USD/CHF pair has faced strong support at the level of 0.9550. So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of 0.9492 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9492, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity above the level of 0.9492. A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9418. Today, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between the levels of 0.9550 and 0.9418. Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market as well as the current price is also below the moving average (100) and (50) in the daily time frame. As a result, sell below the resistance of 0.9550 with targets at 0.9492 and 0.9418. Nevertheless, stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be of beneficial to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 0.9715.

Intraday technical levels:

  • R3: 0.9846
  • R2: 0.9700
  • R1: 0.9640
  • PP: 0.9561
  • S1: 0.9492
  • S2: 0.9418
  • S3: 0.9366
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Global macro overview for 08/04/2016

Global macro overview for 08/04/2016:

The ECB released the minutes of its March policy meeting. The regulator implemented several significant monetary steps, including lowering all three of its interest rates and increasing its asset-purchase program (QE) from EUR 60 billion to 80 billion/mth. Moreover, the main refinancing rate was cut from 0.05% to a flat 0.0%. Besides, the ECB has pumped some EUR 700 billion into its asset-purchase program. Nevertheless, the results are disappointing, as eurozone continues grappling with weak growth and inflation levels. The minutes indicated that the ECB Governing Council was broadly unified behind ECB president Mario Draghi, supporting the monetary package, which the ECB adopted at the March meeting. In conclusion, the minutes acknowledged a difficult situation of the Eurozone economy, noting that the pace of recovery is expected to remain weak and uncertainties in the global economic environment will pose significant risks to eurozone.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/AUD technical picture in the daily time frame. Recently this market has hit the resistance at the level of 1.5208 trading in a narrow rising edge formation. If this formation is violated to the downside, then the bears will be in control of this market once again and they might push the prices lower towards the next important support at the level of 1.4471.

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Global macro overview for 08/04/2016

Global macro overview for 08/04/2016:

Fed's Chair Janet Yellen said yesterday that the US central bank had not made a mistake by hiking interest rates in December. It is an action that was followed by massive turbulence in financial markets and further weakening of the global economy. She added that the US economy remains on a solid ground with some signs of inflation, decreasing unemployment, and increasing average hourly pay. That means that inflation would not be held down much longer by a strong US dollar and low oil prices. In conclusion, the Fed remains on track for further interest rate increases as long as the data justify such a move.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market has made some kind of a temporary local high at the level of 1.1452 and now the bears are trying to regain the control over it. Any break out below the support at the level of 1.1343 will confirm the view of the bearish correction to come soon.

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Technical analysis of USDX for April 8, 2016

The Dollar index is showing signs of a possible reversal that is near. Several bullish divergence signals are given despite the new low. The trend remains bearish but dollar bears should be very cautious as a reversal could occur any time now.

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Red line - resistance trend line

Black lines - bullish divergence signs

The Dollar index is still trading below the Kumo (cloud) on the 4-hour chart. The price is making lower lows and lower highs but the oscillators on the 4-hour chart are giving bullish divergence signals. Resistance is at 95. Support is at 94.20.

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Blue lines - sideways channel

Red line - trend line resistance

The weekly candle is shaping to be a doji candle. This is a typical reversal candle but we have to wait for the weekly candle to close before reaching any conclusions. The short-term trend remains bearish. The long-term trend is neutral as the price continues to trade for at least a year inside the trading range. The weekly stochastic is also giving some bullish divergence signals and that is why dollar bears should be very cautious.

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 8, 2016

Gold made an upward move yesterday towards the $1,240 critical resistance level but did not manage to break it. The weekly trend remains supportive but, in my overall view, long positions are preferred only after a deeper decline towards $1,170-$1,100.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Yellow area - resistance

Blue area - support

Gold has managed to move above the Kumo on the 4-hour chart and out of the bearish channel. However, horizontal resistance at $1,240 has not been broken. The price is stalling around $1,240 and this is not a good sign. Another rejection here could push the price back inside the bearish channel and maybe towards $1,190. Today is an important day as I expect some volatility in Gold prices.

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The weekly candle remains supported and above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). The stochastic is turning lower and this is not a good sign for the bullish trend. However, the price is still above the weekly cloud. I at least expect the price to test the upper boundary of the weekly cloud and the 38% retracement of the rise from $1,045.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 08, 2016

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USD/JPY is under pressure as the key resistance is at 109.30. Overnight, US stocks settled lower, weighed down by bank and financial shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.0% to 17541, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% to 2041 (back into the red for 2016), and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.5% to 4848.

Nymex crude oil declined 1.3% to $37.26 a barrel, gold gained 1.5% to $1240 a troy ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased to 1.689% from 1.753% in the previous session.

Meanwhile, the US dollar saw choppy trading yesterday. USD/JPY plunged another 1.4% to 108.20 (day-low at 107.67), last seen on October 29, 2014. This morning, the pair posted a rebound above 108.50 after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said the government could take necessary measures to deal with the yen's "one-sided" rise.

EUR/USD declined 0.2% to 1.1375 after swinging between 1.1335 and 1.1453. GBP/USD dropped a further 0.5% to 1.4054. And commodities-linked currencies reversed course to the downside, with USD/CAD rising 0.4% to 1.3143, AUD/USD sinking 1.3% to 0.7501 and NZD/USD being down 0.7% to 0.6775. The pair is continuing its rebound off its overnight low of 107.67. Currently it has broken above the 50-period moving average (30-minute chart), while the intraday relative strength index is directed above the neutrality level of 50, indicating that the rebound could be extended. However, as long as the level of 109.30 holds as the key resistance, the intraday outlook remains bearish and the chance of the pair returning to the first downside target at 107.70 (around yesterday's low) remains high. Below 107.70, support would be found at 107.00.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 108.15. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 107.70. The pivot point stands at 109.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 109.95 and the second target at 110.50.

Resistance levels: 109.95, 110.50, 111.05

Support levels: 108.15, 107.70, 107

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 08, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is under pressure. The pair remains on the downside after swinging off yesterday's low of 0.9520, showing a pattern of lower highs. Currently it is trading below the 20-period moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is now below the neutrality level of 50 lacking upward momentum. As long as the pair fails to re-take the key resistance at 0.9565, it should return to the first downside target at 0.9525.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9525. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9500. The pivot point stands at 0.9595. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9620 and the second target at 0.9650.

Resistance levels: 0.9620, 0.9650, 0.9675

Support levels: 0.9525 , 0.9500, 0.9465

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 08, 2016

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NZD/USD Intraday:

Key resistance is at 0.6820. The pair remains weak below its nearest key resistance at 0.6820 and is likely to challenge its support at 0.6755 in sight. The risk is now a slide below this threshold, which should trigger a bearish acceleration to 0.6735. Furthermore, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning down, calling for a new drop. Hence, as long as 0.6820 holds on the upside, look for a return to 0.6755 and 0.6735 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6755. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6735. The pivot point stands at 0.6820. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6885 and the second target at 0.6850.

Resistance levels: 0.6850, 0.6885, 0.6925

Support levels: 0.6755, 0.6735, 0.6675

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 08, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as key resistance is at 153.70. The pair has been capped by its descending 50-period moving average and remains under pressure. The relative strength index stays below its 50% neutrality area and lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 15370. A break below this level would open way to further weakness toward 151.80.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 151.80. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 151.05. The pivot point stands at 153.70. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 154.50 and the second target at 155.45.

Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.45, 156.35

Support levels: 151.80, 151.05, 150.45

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 8 - 2016

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for upside acceleration and expect this will be seen once resistance at 1.6874 is overcome. In the longer term, we are looking for a strong rally in wave [iii] higher towards 1.8550.

In the short term, support is seen at 1.6605 and again at 1.6550, but ideally support at 1.6605 will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.6874.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.6250 with stop placed at 1.6600. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6605 or upon a break above 1.6874 and use the same at 1.6600.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 8 - 2016

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Wave summary;

We continue to look for a decline to 120.98 (red wave iii), where red wave iii will be 161.8% longer than red wave i. Once red wave iii is in place near 120.98 a correction/consolidation in red wave iv should be seen before the final decline in red wave v lower towards 117.37.

In the short term, a break below minor support at 122.95 will confirm the decline towards 120.98 to end red wave iii.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 127.35 and will move our stop lower to 124.70. Upon a break below 122.95 we will move our stop lower to 124.00. We will take profit at 121.05.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 08, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French Industrial Production m/m, French Gov Budget Balance, German Trade Balance. The US will release economic data too such as Wholesale Inventories m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1422.

Strong Resistance: 1.1415.

Original Resistance: 1.1404.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1393.

Target Inner Area: 1.1366.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1339.

Original Support: 1.1328.

Strong Support: 1.1317.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1310.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 08, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, Current Account and the US will release some economic data such as Wholesale Inventories m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.38.

Resistance. 2: 109.16.

Resistance. 1: 108.95.

Support. 1: 108.69.

Support. 2: 108.48.

Support. 3: 108.27.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of Silver for April 08, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading around $15.17 levels for now, still looking to form a base at $14.50/60 levels before resuming the uptrend. Please note that $14.50 levels are also a convergence of fibonacci 0.618 and the back side of trend line support, and the metal is expected to bounce from there towards higher levels. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and look to initiate fresh long positions at lower levels. Immediate support is seen through $14.50 levels while resistance is seen at $15.50/60 levels respectively. The wave structure indicates that Silver is still to be bought on dips going forward. On the flip side, a break above $15.55 levels would indicate that a bottom is formed around $14.80 levels already.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, looking to buy at lower levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 08, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold continues drifting sideways for now with prices trading around $1,236.00 levels. Please note that the metal has broken out of its resistance trend line and is expected to receive short-term support around $1,130.00 levels. Another probability is that the metal is unfolding as a triangle and has completed three waves out of the 5 waves. It is recommended to remain flat for now and watch out for a reaction around $1,230.00 levels before positioning trades. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,244.00/45.00 levels, while support is at $1,230.00 and lower respectively. A push lower into $1,210.00 levels would confirm that the metal is unfolding as a triangle.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now and watch for a reaction around $1,230.00 levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 08, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be trading at 123.60 levels at this moment, after hitting lows at 122.40/50 levels yesterday. Please note that the pair had reversed lower from fibonacci 128.30 levels earlier, and could continue drifting lower below 122.00 levels going forward. A potential pullback rally is possible through 125.00/126.00 levels, though, before the downtrend continues. A break above 129.00 levels would breach trend line resistance and indicate that a meaningful bottom is now formed for prices to push further upwards. It is recommended to book profits on short positions taken earlier and remain flat for now. Immediate support is seen at 121.95 levels, while resistance is at 126.00 and then 128.40/50 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on short positions taken earlier and remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 08, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair has dropped quite a bit lower into 1.3400 levels as depicted here, looking to produce a pullback/retracement towards 1.3740/50 levels at least. Please note that a break above 1.3950 levels and subsequently the trend line resistance would be required to confirm that the pair has formed a meaningful bottom around 1.3400 levels. It is recommended to initiate long positions now with a risk below 1.3400 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.3400 levels while resistance is at 1.3700 levels respectively. Short-term indicators are pointing towards a potential pullback rally through 1.3740/50 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop below 1.3400, target 1.3750.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 08, 2016

USDX is looking to break the sideways structure, which has been developing since the March 30th session. However, it is still trading below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, so the Index could be looking for new lows in coming days at least. The short-term scenario is calling for a possible re-testing of that moving average, before resuming the bearish bias.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.85 / 95.12

H1 chart's support levels: 94.40 / 93.95

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.40, take profit is at 93.95, and stop loss is at 94.85.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 08, 2016

We have been seeing some declines during yesterday's session, as the Cable is trying to test again the support level of 1.4016. If the pair succeeds in breaking that zone, then we can expect a continuation towards the 1.3946 level, which is a key zone for the bearish trend's development. The MACD indicator is entering into neutral territory and that adds some uncertainty to the short-term picture of GBP/USD.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4062 / 1.4118

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4016 / 1.3946

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4016, take profit is at 1.3946 and stop loss is at 1.4085.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 8, 2016

EUR/USD: The bulls have made an attempt to push the price towards the resistance line at 1.1450, but they failed. The resistance line at 1.14500 is still an obstacle in the market; but the bulls are still showing their willingness to push the price to the upside. The bullish bias here remains valid.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has been consolidating to the downside so far this week. The support level at 0.9550 has been tested and it would soon be breached to the downside, despite being a stubborn obstacle to the bears' interests. This is because the outlook on the market is bearish for this week: as long as the EUR/USD continues to show its bullishness, the USD/CHF would remain under bearish pressure.

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GBP/USD: The Cable went downwards on Thursday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and as a result of that, it is assumed that further southwards movement is possible. This is because the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Long trades are not recommended in this kind of market.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY went below our target on Thursday, owing to a strong selling pressure on it (and other JPY pairs). The price is now below the supply level at 108.50, going towards the demand level at 108.00. That demand level has been tested and it would be re-tested and later get breached to the downside.

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EUR/JPY: There is a major Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the EUR/JPY chart. The price has gone down by 450 pips this week alone. The supply zones at 124.00, 123.50 and 123.00 have been slashed. The next targets for the bears are located at the demand zones of 112.50 and 112.00. The targets would be reached today or next week.

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Daily analysis of GOLD for April 07, 2016

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Overview

The gold price continues fluctuating near 1,227.40 levels close to the bearish correctional channel's resistance, keeping the chances for resuming the bearish correctional trend valid. The price is likely to get enough negative momentum to be pushed downwards. Therefore, our bearish trend expectations will remain valid and active in the upcoming sessions. The next target is located at 1,193.00. A breach of the 1,232.00 level will stop the expected decline and lead the price to an attempt to regain the bullish trend on the short-term basis.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 07, 2016

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Overview

The silver price shows quite volatile moves near the minor bearish channel shown in the image. As long as the price is below the 15.30 level, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active in the upcoming period; and the price is likely to break the 15.00 level to open the way towards targets at 14.67 then 14.27 levels initially. We remind you that a breach of the 15.30 level will turn the price back to the bullish track, which main targets begin at the previously recorded top of 16.35.

The expected trading range for today is between the 14.65 support and the 15.30 resistance.

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