Technical analysis for Dow Jones for November 21, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The Dow Jones is setting up for a huge drop lower towards 23,000 levels at least, for the next several weeks to come. It remains to be seen from when and from which resistance level, the above downswing would begin. The 4H chart depicted here seems to have completed its first downswing between 26,950 and 24,100 levels respectively. The subsequent corrective rally reached almost fibonacci 0.786 retracement around 26,300 levels. Resistance should be strong for any rallies through 26,300 levels going forward. Please note that either we would see prices continue dropping from current levels or the Dow Jones would test 26,300/400 levels, before giving in to the bears.

Trading plan:

Remain short or initiate fresh shorts as close to 26,300 levels, stop above 26,950, target is 23,000

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for Gold for November 21, 2018

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Technical outlook:

Gold is seen to be trading around $1,225/26 levels for now, and is expected to retrace lower, before finding support and resuming its rally. Please note that the counter trend drop is expected to terminate around $1,214 levels, and possibly $1,208 levels before it finds support to turn higher. Also note that there is convergence seen at $1,208 levels, as depicted on the 4H chart here and hence probability remains high for a drop there. The next upswing is expected to push through $1,248/50 levels at least, as depicted here as fibonacci extensions. If prices manage to push further higher, it could reach $1,270 levels easily before turning lower again. Interim support is seen at $1,295 levels and prices should stay above that to keep bullish structure intact.

Trading plan:

Long around $1,210/12, stop below $1,190, target $1,250 at least.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for US Dollar Index for November 21, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index pulled back to 96.80/90 levels today, after forming interim lows at 96.10 levels as seen on the 4H chart depicted here. It remains possible for the index to continue its corrective rally through 97.00/10 levels forming a down gartley corrective wave structure, before resuming its downswing. Also note that if prices fail to break below 96.00 levels going forward it would be a threat to 97.70 levels which is defined as an intermediary resistance at the moment. Nevertheless, resistance should be strong around 97.00/10 levels since it is fibonacci 0.618 of the drop between 97.70 and 96.10 respectively. A downside potential target is seen at 95.00 levels followed by 94.00 and lower, going forward.

Trading plan:

Remain short from here, stop above 97.70, a target is below 95.00

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 21, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair retraced lower up to 1.1360 levels today, after printing highs at 1.1473 earlier. It remained just shy of resistance at 1.1500 as depicted on the 4H chart here. Nevertheless, the structure still looks to be bullish for several weeks to come until prices stay above 1.1210 levels, which is intermediary support. Please also note that there is a possibility of the corrective drop to reach 1.1312 from here, which is fibonacci 0.618 support of the recent upswing between 1.1213 through 1.1473 levels respectively. If it unfolds accordingly, the EUR/USD pair should rally past 1.1600/50 levels and up to 1.1800 in the next several trading sessions.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop below 1.1210, target 1.1650

Good luck!

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for November 21, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite impulsive amid the bearish momentum after being rejecting off the 0.7300 area with a daily close. AUD has been quite firm in light of the fresh economic reports, but it failed to sustain the impulsive pressure over USD which might lead to a strong counter-move.

Last week Australia's Employment reports had a positive impact on AUD gains, leading to impulsive momentum and pushing the price towards 0.7300 which could not sustain further. The report revealed a significant increase in Australia's employment to 32.8k from the previous figure of 7.8k while Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0% which was expected to increase to 5.1%. Today Australia's MI Leading Index report was published with an increase to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.0%. Such data propped up AUD to push higher with a bounce off the 0.7200 area.

On the other hand, recently US Building Permits report was published with slight decrease to 1.26M as expected from the previous figure of 1.27M and Housing Starts increased to 1.23M as expected from the previous figure of 1.21M. Today US Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%, Durable Goods Orders could have decreased to -2.2% from the previous value of 0.7%, Unemployment Claims are likely to decrease to 215k from the previous figure of 216k, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to show a slight increase to 98.4 from the previous figure of 98.3. As the FED is expected to announce another rate hike next month and three more times in 2019, USD may get stronger for a certain period. On the other hand, the Rate Hike is going to hamper the long-term financial sector with a big margin.

In the meantime, AUD has been quite bullish with the gains today whereas USD is making impulsive remarkable gains. So, the pair is expected to continue pushing lower in the short term. Ahead of the high impact economic reports this week, any positive data from the US is expected to push the price much lower in the future. AUD is being on the sidelines with no major economic reports to put an impact in the current market situation.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price bounced off the 0.72 support area with strong bullish momentum today after several days of impulsive bearish pressure. At the current price formation, there are certain chances of price to continue pushing higher as it remains above 0.72 area with a daily close whereas a break below it may lead to further bearish momentum with a target towards 0.7050 support area in the future. As the price remains above 0.72, the bullish bias may continue pushing the price higher in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.7050, 0.7200

RESISTANCE: 0.7300, 0.7450-0.7500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The fall of the stock market may change the plans of the US Federal Reserve for 2019

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The decrease in quotations in the US stock markets should not affect the plans of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to raise the base interest rate at a meeting in December but may change the forecast for 2019.

Earlier, US Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly stated their readiness to raise rates at a meeting on December 18-19, experts estimate the likelihood of such a decision at 75%.

At the same time, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at a meeting in December failed to develop a unified position on monetary policy for 2019. Opinions were divided between three and four increases.

Wall Street analysts also have different views on the rate of rising in the base rate in 2019. Experts Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase predict four increases, while analysts Morgan Stanley and Nomura, only two.

If the negative dynamics in the US stock market continues, regulator officials may reduce the number of projected increases for the next year. Currently, the Fed rate on federal credit funds is at the level of 2.00-2.25%.

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Global oil prices fell 7% in a day

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According to the results of trading on Tuesday, November 20, world prices for black gold fell by 7% per day. On Wednesday, November 21, the cost of futures for Brent crude fell by 6.4% to $ 62.53. WTI light oil futures fell 6.6% to $ 53.43.During the trading session, the fall in Brent quotes reached 7.6%. The price of this brand has demonstrated at least since last December, reaching $ 61.71. At the moment, Brent crude oil is worth $ 63.28, and the cost of futures for WTI is at around $ 54.33.At the beginning of last month, the price of Brent crude oil mixture fell by 28%, while the price of WTI fell by 30%. Quotations reduction was preceded by statements by US President Donald Trump that Saudi Arabia, despite the recent assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, will remain a US trading partner. The statements of the head of the White House caused rumors about the unwillingness of Saudi Arabia to reduce oil production in exchange for US loyalty.According to experts, the recent collapse of the oil market was caused by the flight of investors to the safe haven assets. US stock indices per day collapsed by 1.7-2.2%, analysts remind. Global oil prices were also affected by the easing of Iranian oil by consumers, imposed by the D. Trump administration after the sanctions.

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The decision of the European Commission on Italy did not affect the euro. OECD lowers global GDP growth forecast

The euro is expected to decline after the decision of the European Commission to apply the procedure of excessive deficit to Italy. Despite the fact that such a decision was quite expected, speculative players tried to take advantage of these moments and continue the decline of the European currency, which is still limited to the intermediate support level of 1.1365. It is likely that new buyers will try to build in this range the lower limit of the new ascending channel with a reserve for maximums in the 15th and 16th figure.According to the data, the European Commission will apply to Italy the procedure associated with excessive deficits, since the draft budget of Italy does not meet the eurozone's debt criteria. Let me remind you that Italy's public debt is 131.2% of GDP, which exceeds the upper limit of 60%, provided for by the rules of the eurozone. Given the fact that the new Italian government plans only to increase spending in the next few years, the national debt can continue to grow.

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The representative of the European Commission Dombrovskis said that the situation in Italy is a problem for all eurozone countries, but despite this, the members of the European Union will decide on the recommendation of the European Commission within two weeks. Most likely, this will not end well for the Italian authorities.As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, it remained unchanged. The failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.1400, which was formed in the first half of the day, led to a decline in the euro, but the downward trend did not continue. A break of 1.1400 will lead to a new wave of growth of EUR / USD to the maximum of the week in the area of 1.1470. However, in this scenario, it will be difficult to expect a large upward trend, the formation of which requires a more serious downward correction.The demand for risky assets is also limited due to Sino-US trade relations. Yesterday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer blamed China's leadership for continuing to take economic measures that threatened the American industry. It is clear that representatives of the US administration act on behalf of Donald Trump, but such attacks are unlikely to lead to the achievement of a treaty. Let me remind you that all attention to this issue is concentrated on the planned meeting, which will take place in a few weeks.Today, the report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was published, in which forecasts for the next few years were presented. Thus, the OECD lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7%, while in 2020 it is also expected to reach 3.5%.The OECD still forecasts US GDP growth in 2018 at 2.9%, while the forecast for the growth of the eurozone economy in 2018 was revised down to 1.9% from 2%.As for Japan, the OECD lowered its growth forecast this year to 0.9% from 1.2%, and the forecast for China's GDP growth to 6.6% from 6.7%.The OECD expects the US Federal Reserve to raise the key rate to 3.25% -3.5% by the end of 2019.With regard to the British pound, the data on the growth of borrowing of the UK government did not lead to significant changes in the market. According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, borrowing from the UK government in the period from April to October of this year amounted to 26.7 billion pounds. Let me remind you that the Office of Budget Responsibility UK projected that for the entire fiscal year, the government will borrow 25.5 billion pounds. As we can see, the indicator has already gone beyond, although the fiscal year ends only at the end of March.

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As for the technical picture of GBP / USD, a breakthrough of the support level of 1.2760 may hit the stop orders of the pound buyers, which will provoke a new wave of decline in the trading instrument with access to the lows of October this year of 1.2660 and 1.2620. To return the initiative to the buyer's side, consolidation above the resistance of 1.2820 is required, which will return the trading instrument to this week's highs of 1.2880.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 21. The pound remains in the side channel

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears did not allow the pound buyers to break through the resistance level of 1.2816, which I talked about in more detail in my morning review. At the moment, the challenge is still breaking through 1.2816, which will open a direct road to the area of maximum 1.2876, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the second half of the day, support can only be expected when a false breakdown is formed from the level of 1.2770 since its breakthrough will lead to a very strong drop in the pound. In this scenario, you can open long positions to rebound from 1.2694.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears managed to keep the pair below the resistance level of 1.2816 and form a false test, which I paid attention to it in the morning forecast . As long as trade is conducted under this range, the pressure on the pound will remain and the repeated test on the current target of support at 1.2770 will lead to a larger sale with access to the lows of 1.2694 and 1.2662, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of positive news on Brexit, a break of 1.2816 will lead to an increase in pounds. In this scenario, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.2876.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates a decrease in volatility and does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 21. The European Commission recommended that Italy apply the procedure

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro buyers were not allowed above the resistance of 1.1409 to which I paid attention in my morning forecast, which led to a decrease in the pair. The upward potential was limited due to the fact that the European Commission recommended today that the procedure for excessive deficit be applied to Italy. Now, the EU has two weeks to make a decision. As for new purchases of the euro, the support level of 1.1365 showed itself very well in the first half of the day. The task for the second half of the day will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1409, which will lead to a larger increase in the euro in the area of the maximum of the week 1.1468, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a further decline in the euro, it is best to rely on purchases to rebound from a minimum of 1.1329.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers have worked well at the resistance level of 1.1409, where I recommended opening short positions in the morning for a rebound. The main task of the bears in the afternoon will be a breakthrough and consolidation below 1.1365 support, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave with the updating of minima in the area of 1.1329 and 1.1286, where I recommend to fix profits. In the case of EUR / USD growth above resistance 1.1409, it is best to consider new short positions to rebound from a weekly high of 1.1468.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of the euro decline in the afternoon, long positions can be viewed after the test of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator channel in the 1.1355 area.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 21, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. A recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Quick bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is mandatory to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1600 where the upper limit of the daily channel comes to meet the EUR/USD pair.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400) until a breakout occurs in either directions.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for November 21, 2018

USD/CAD has been non-volatile and impulsive with the bullish momentum for a few weeks in a row which led the price to reside at the edge of 1.3300-50 resistance area. Despite the recent headwinds in the US economy, USD managed to sustain momentum against CAD which is struggling to generate a strong counter-move to establish an opposite trend in the pair.

In light of recently published positive economic reports, USD has picked up steam, but it is expected to get quite volatile with the upcoming gains. Recently US Building Permits report was published with a slight decrease to 1.26M as expected from the previous figure of 1.27M and Housing Starts increased to 1.23M as expected from the previous figure of 1.21M. Today US Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%, Durable Goods Orders are likely to have decreased to -2.2% from the previous value of 0.7%, Unemployment Claims are expected to decrease to 215k from the previous figure of 216k, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to show a slight increase to 98.4 from the previous figure of 98.3. The FED is expected raise the official funds rate next month and three more times in 2019. The strong likelihood provides USD with support. However, the rate hike is going to hamper the long-term financial sector with a big margin.

On the other hand, the Bank of Canada is currently evaluating its monetary policies and expected to announce major changes in the coming days. The reviewing of monetary policy is expected to last till 2021. The central bank could renew its inflation target which has been kept at 2% for last 23 years. Today Canada's Wholesale Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.1%. If the report reveals better-than-expected figures, it is expected to provide the required push for the currency in the long run. Moreover, on Friday CPI and Retail Sales reports are going to be published which are expected to have a greater impact on future CAD gains.

In the meantime, USD has been trading mixed amid the recent economic reports. Nevertheless, USD managed to sustain the bullish momentum over CAD whereas any positive economic results from the CAD side is expected to lead to an impulsive counter-move, resulting in bearish pressure. USD is expected to sustain its momentum further with the bullish trend in the long term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.3300-50 resistance area amid bearish pressure today while Bearish Divergence is being formed along the way. If the price has a daily close below 1.3300, it is expected to lead to further bearish pressure with a target towards 1.3050 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3350 area with a daily close, there are certain chance of a bearish counter-move inside the current bullish bias.

SUPPORT: 1.2950, 1.3000-50

RESISTANCE: 1.3300-50

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 21, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted demand-zone of (1.2850-1.2780) where slight bullish recovery towards 1.2980 (key-level) was overpowered by quick bearish decline towards 1.2720 on November 15.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2980 (key-level for the short-term scenario). Moreover, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone around 1.2780.

Bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2850-1.2780 (demand-zone) is needed to prevent further bearish decline and to allow another bullish movement to occur towards 1.2980.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.2780 allows further bearish decline towards 1.2700 and 1.2670.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of EUR / CHF pair for the week of October 21

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The wave relevant for this scale has completed the downward trend of the daily TF.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The high level of the bullish wave that began on September 7 makes it possible to wait for a gradual transition of the entire movement by 2 orders up.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

During the entire month since October 22, the price of the pair had a descending vector of motion. In the wave of the hourly TF, it became a correction. Recoil is within the next few days possible upward.

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Recommended trading strategy:

The decline in recent weeks is directed against the promising course of the pair, so sales make sense only on the smallest TFs. In the area of calculated support, it is recommended to track the reversal signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1380 / 1.1430

Support areas:

- 1.1230 / 1.1180

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for November 21, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that BTC is trading in the upward correction phase, which is sign that buying looks risky. The trend is still bearish and my advice is to watch for potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. The next downward target is set at the price of $3.248 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%).

Support/Resistance

$4.717– Intraday resistance

$4.018– Intraday support

$3.248 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 21, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now.

Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058.

So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058.

Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216.

However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.

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Brexit. In the absence of an agreement on Brexit, the role of the Bank of England in the UK economy will be secondary

In the absence of an agreement on Brexit, the role of the Bank of England in the UK economy will be secondary. Publication of European Commission decision on the issue of intaglio may derail the euro.

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As for fundamental statistics, there is no important data to come out in the first half of this week.

It is necessary to pay attention only at that time that the number of bookmarks for new homes in the USA increased slightly in October. It happened due to the intensification of the construction of apartment buildings. Despite this, the weakness of the construction sector persists due to a sharp decline in demand.

According to the US Department of Commerce, it was up to 1.5% of the number of units per year. Economists had expected to grow by 2.4% in October. The number of permits for housing construction fell by 0.6% compared with the previous year, while economists had expected an increase of 2.3%.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the downward correction may continue today, and the unsuccessful fixing above the resistance of 1.1400 will provoke a return to the market of new euro sellers with the updating of this week's lows around 1.1330 and 1.1290. If euro buyers manage to quickly return to the market after yesterday's collapse, a break of 1.1400 will lead to a new wave of growth of the euro pair to the maximum of a week in the area of 1.1470. However, in such a scenario, it will be difficult to expect a large upward trend as the formation of which requires a more serious downward correction.

The British pound fell yesterday amid statements by the representative of the Bank of England. The statements were related to problems that may arise under the scenario if the Brexit agreement is not approved by the parliament.

Bank of England spokesman, Michael Saunders, noted that most UK companies are not prepared for the fact that the country's exit from the EU will take place without an agreement on further trade relations. According to him, companies do not know how to prepare for such a development of events, which will seriously affect the rate of economic growth in the future. The main problem remains a decline in the confidence of companies, as well as a serious increase in uncertainty in the future.

The sharp decline in investment by UK companies will continue gradually from the 2nd quarter of 2016, which will affect the development of the economy.

The pound also reacted negatively to the statements made by Mark Carney, manager of the Bank of England. In the course of his speech, Carney was concerned about the fact that in the event of a UK withdrawal from the EU without an agreement on further relations, the role of the Central Bank would be secondary. This suggests that the regulation of monetary policy by the Bank of England, namely raising or lowering interest rates, will not be so important for the economy. According to Carney, such a scenario will lead to an economic shock.

As for the technical picture of GBP/USD pair, a breakthrough of the support level of 1.2760 may hit the stop orders of the pound buyers, which will provoke a new wave of decline in the trading instrument with the October lows reaching the levels of 1.2660 and 1.2620. To return the initiative to the side of buyers, it is necessary to fix above resistance 1.2820, which will return the trading instrument to the highs of this week in the area of 1.2880.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 21, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1393. According to the H1 time – frame, I found that upward correction is in progress, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1300.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 21, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 1.2890 towards 1.2780. Now, the price is set at 1.2780. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2890 and 1.3001. Volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.2829 and 1.2725 in coming hours. In the short term, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2725 to form a bullish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.2829, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2829. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.2725 towards 1.2829 and 1.2890 as targets. In the H4 time frame:

However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2890, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2890. So, the market will decline further to 1.2725 in order to return to the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2639.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 21, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2776. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction in the background (expanded flat), which is a sign that buying looks risky. Most recently, I have found the breakout of the intraday bearish flag, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2722.

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The overvalued dollar will continue to grow?

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The dollar has too many advantages, both current and future, for growth. The market has long taken them into account. At the same time, the problems of the huge trade deficits of the United States with the rest of the world, the political division of the country remained. In addition, the desire to bet on an even more expensive dollar and further discourage trade wars from investors. To protect US financial claims to the rest of the world, there is also a creeping loss by the dollar of its usual lion's share in global payments for supplies. More and more countries, including Europe, are looking for workarounds through national currencies.Analysts of leading financial funds are increasingly saying that the dollar is overvalued.The other day, Morgan Stanley announced the end of the "bullish" trend of the US currency. According to bank analysts, it's time to think about selling dollars."We believe that the dollar has reached its peak at current levels. The rate may weaken as credit spreads widen, stock prices fall, and sovereign bond yields also begin to decline amid disinflationary pressure and falling oil prices," the financial department said.Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley believes that "bearish" sentiment will strengthen the expected slowdown in US GDP, lower oil, stabilize the yuan and tighten liquidity in US markets. The assets of the EM, which suffered because of the growth in yield of treasuries and the strength of the dollar, now began to "shine". A fall in oil prices and stable prices for building materials, including iron ore and copper, may signal a rally in an emerging market.Goldman Sachs and Credit AgricoleThe group of currency strategists from Goldman Sachs also joined the negative forecasts. According to their estimates, the US currency "is approaching a peak, which should ease the pressure on such currencies as the yuan." Analysts from Credit Agricole expect a decline in the dollar since the Democrats "seized" the House of Representatives.Note that we are talking about the medium and long-term prospects of the greenback. Attempts to dollar "bulls" partially return lost positions can be repeated until the end of the year.For example, BBH experts foreshadow the continuation of the dollar growth. Even the expectation of a possible softening of the position of Federal Reserve officials will not hinder this trend.Recently, traders have paid more attention to the "pigeon" rhetoric of representatives of the regulator, rather than to strong US statistics."We believe that the fundamental picture is favorable for the US currency and we see no prerequisites for changing our forecasts regarding the further growth of the dollar against the background of the global stock indices decline. The current slowdown in the US economy is in line with our expectations, and its growth rates remain high. In addition, we see an increase in the risks of the failure of the Brexit talks and the imposition of penalties by the European Union on Italy. These events should provide additional support for the dollar," bank analysts write.

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EUR / USD pair on November 21. Trading system "Regression Channels". Meeting Theresa May and Juncker will not matter without

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - down.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 11.7608

On Wednesday, November 21, the EUR / USD currency pair continues to be adjusted and has already worked out a moving average line. From a technical point of view, a rebound in the price from the MA can trigger a resumption of the upward movement. However, there are several technical factors that do not speak in favor of the euro. First, a pair of Murray's "4/8" point and perfectly worked out at 1.1475 and immediately bounced off him, which means a large number of pending sell orders near this level. Secondly, the level of 1.1475 is located slightly below the previous local maximum, and the lack of its update also speaks in favor of the downward movement. The third factor is fundamental. There is still no new information on Brexit, but there are a lot of negative rumors. Also, this can be attributed Italy's refusal from the requirements of the European Commission to bring the budget for 2019 in line with EU standards. Thus, we believe that the pair is more likely to overcome the moving average and continue the downward movement. Today, report on orders for durable goods from the United States will be published. The forecast is very weak and if the real value is higher than the forecast (which is not difficult), then it can be supported by the American currency.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair is in the correction. The rebound of prices from moving with a reversal of Heiken Ashi upward will be a signal to open new long positions with a target of 1.1475.

Sell positions can be considered after traders overcome the moving average line. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will pass into the hands of bears and the target for the downward movement will be the level 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The higher linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 21. The area of 1.2700 is critical to growth prospects for the pound.

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Wave counting analysis:During the November 20 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair lost about 70 basis points, but still leaves no hope of building an ascending wave c. As part of this supposed wave, waves 1 and 2 can already be traced. Thus, if the current wave counting is correct, then the rise is resumed within wave 3, C, with targets located around 30 figures. As before, disappointing news on the Brexit talks or the refusal of the British Parliament to accept exit from the EU offered by Theresa May can hinder the growth of the pound.The objectives for the option with purchases:1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci1.3175 - 0.0% of FibonacciThe objectives for the option with sales:1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)General conclusions and trading recommendations:The GBP / USD currency pair remains in the process of building an upward set of waves, but the wave marking, if successfully attempted to break through the 100.0% of the Fibonacci level, will require making adjustments. The chances of building an ascending wave C with targets located near the marks of 1.2991 and 1.3175 remain, but a lot will depend on the nature of the news from the UK, which will come in the coming days.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 21. The pair is ready for new growth, can prevent the news background

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Wave counting analysis:In the course of trading on Tuesday, the EUR / USD currency pair lost about 80 basis points, so the expected wave 1 in the future first new upward trend segment is completed. If this is true, then now, the pair is in the process of building the proposed wave 2, which can also be completed. Thus, I expect the resumption of an increase in quotations with targets above the 15th figure. The news background can prevent the execution of this option. The euro may be under pressure due to problems with the adoption of the budget in Italy.The objectives for the option with sales:1.1215 - 0.0% of FibonacciThe objectives for the option with purchases:1.1500 - 100.0% of Fibonacci1.1577 - 127.2% of FibonacciGeneral conclusions and trading recommendations:The currency pair continues to build the first upward wave as part of a new uptrend trend. If the expected wave 2 is completed, the pair will resume growth in quotations with targets near the estimated levels of 1.1500 and 1.1577, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the level of 50.0% on the small Fibonacci grid will lead to the complication of the wave pattern.

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Traders build up dollar positions, avoiding risky assets

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Today, the dollar is trading in positive territory against its main competitors, increasing the profits of dollar traders last night, as investors avoid riskier assets in favor of safe currencies amid growing concerns about a slowdown in global growth and a toughening trade war between the US and China.Considering such sentiments and a total gap in the stock market, traders on the eve sought refuge in a liquid dollar, which rose from its two-week low recorded on Tuesday.Now, the currency markets are worried about the slowdown in global economic growth, so safe currencies such as the dollar and the yen can make a profit.Recall that for most of this week, the dollar was under strong pressure, as cautious comments by Federal Reserve staff and surprisingly weak US economic data suggested that the regulator could slow down its monetary policy tightening.The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is at 96.82. Thus, the index rose 0.65% from the previous trading session.Given that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, analysts believe that the dollar can trade with a positive bias in the short term, despite a decline in long-term expectations for the Fed to raise key rates.

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GBP / USD. November 21. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Brexit deal success now depends on UK Parliament

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.CCI: -23.8138The currency pair GBP / USD on Wednesday, November 21, resumed the downward movement, having failed to overcome the Murray level of "3/8" and work out a moving average line. From a fundamental point of view, everything remains the same for the pound sterling, since no positive news on the Brexit topic over the past 24 hours has been made available to traders. At yesterday's speech, Bank of England CEO Mark Carney supported Theresa May's Brexit plan. However, by and large, this does not make any difference, since the May plan should support parliament. With this, there can be big problems. A meeting between Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May will be held today to discuss the final touches of the agreement. However, this event may not have any impact on the pair, since it all depends on the British parliament. In general, we state the fact that there is progress in negotiations and promotion of the whole Brexit procedure, but if the parliament refuses to accept Theresa May's proposal, the whole procedure will be considered failed, and Britain will have an untidy exit from the European Union, which does not promise anything good for it. It is from this point of view that we believe that the parliament will nevertheless pass the bill on Brexit since the two evils are usually chosen the lesser.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1,2756S2 - 1.2695S3 - 1.2634Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1.2817R2 - 1.2878R3 - 1.2939Trading recommendations:The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its downward movement, as indicated by the Heikin Ashi indicator. Thus, short positions with targets of 1.2756 and 1.2695 are now relevant. Heikin Ashi's upward reversal will point to a new round of upward correction.Purchase orders can be considered in case the pair overcomes the MA. In this case, an uptrend may begin to form, but for this, the pound will need fundamental grounds.In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.Explanations for illustrations:The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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The dollar is in demand against the backdrop of rising panic

Major global stock indices are trading in the red zone, sales have become widespread, amid fears of a slowdown in the global economy, and falling oil prices. Brent dropped below $ 62 per barrel, rolling away to the annual minimum, the likelihood of a further escalation of the US-Chinese trade war puts strong pressure on technology stocks.The Dow Jones index fell by 2.21%, the NASDAQ, by 1.7%, Apple shares lost 4.79%, Amazon lost 1.11%, Microsoft lost 2.78%. The immediate reason for the sales was a report from China about the development of an investigation against a number of chip manufacturers, including South Korean Samsung and SK Hynix and American Micron, which control 95% of the global DRAM market. China can impose on each of the manufacturers a large fine if the fact of price collusion is proved, and thus makes it clear to the United States that the game can be played together and it does not intend to succumb to outright blackmail. The position of China confirms the likelihood of an escalation of the trade war and contributes to the growth of panic.Meanwhile, the yield on 5-year bonds Tips fell to February lows, which definitely indicates a slowdown in consumer price growth. It is possible that in November, the inflation will drop to 1.8%, which will deprive the Fed of the main argument for the rate increase.

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The focus will thus shift to a report on the labor market, in which the main indicator will be not so much the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs, as the growth rate of average wages. In October, there was a jump from 2.8% to 3.1%, which gave some hope for inflation, but the Phillips rule still refuses to support the Fed's plans, which clearly follows from the fall in Tips yields.The dollar still feels confident in many respects because at the same time as the Fed's balance sheet is decreasing, the monetary base is going on, that is, a slow but steady decrease in liquidity. The lack of supply of the main world currency supports the dollar index and does not allow it to decline, but the debate in Congress on the ceiling of the national debt is getting closer, and the budget hole is getting wider. In the short term, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen, but in the CME futures market, a bearish reversal is already beginning to form.EurozoneToday, the focus of the decision of the European Commission on the Italian budget and the possible introduction of sanctions against Italy. The reaction of the euro may be different, depending on the outcome, as long as the situation remains unclear, EUR / USD will trade in a range limited by the levels of 1.30 / 1415.

Great Britain

The pound is waiting for the results of the Brexit plan through the parliament, which will have a decisive impact on the quotes. If May succeeds in convincing the vacillating deputies, GBP / USD can overcome the trend line of 1.32 on the positive wave. In the case of a failure, it is likely to decline to 1.20.OilA number of negative factors continue to exert strong pressure on oil prices. Fears of a decline in demand are confirmed, in its November report, OPEC admitted an oversupply in 2019 at the expense of independent producers.At the same time, the onset of formation of local bottom oil is likely, since the main fears have already been recouped. Yesterday's API report showed a reduction in stocks at Cushing of 1.55 million barrels. This is the first decline since September, and distillate stocks also dropped at the same time, on the whole, the report is clearly bullish for oil. If today, the trend will be confirmed

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 21. Bearish divergence worked against the euro

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the US currency after the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator and consolidation below the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423. As a result, on November 21, the fall in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to count on a turn in favor of the euro currency and a return to the level of 76.4%. Closing below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1162.The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair also reversed in favor of the US dollar after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator and began to fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Rebounding the quotations from the Fibo level of 127.2% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Fixing the rate under the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the chances of continuing falling towards the level of 161.8% - 1.0941.The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.Recommendations to traders:You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1303.You can sell the EUR / USD currency pair now with a target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4%, as the pair closed below the correction level of 1.1423 to form a bearish divergence.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for November 21. Bullish divergence can help the pound sterling

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the US currency and closed below the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812. However, on November 21, a bullish divergence emerged near the CCI indicator, which allows traders to expect some growth in the pair. Closing quotes above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of resuming growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2904. A pass of the last divergent low will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.2662.The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair completed the fourth rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2878 and fixed under the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2809. As a result, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the British currency and expect a return to the correction level of 61.8%.The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.Recommendations to traders:New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2878 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 76.4% if the pair closes above 1.2809 (hourly chart).The currency pair GBP / USD will be sold with a target of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair breaks low bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 21

Dear colleagues.For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the price is in deep correction from the rising structure and the level of 1.1352 is the key support. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, there is a high probability that the downward trend will continue to develop, which should occur after the breakdown of 1.2690. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in correction from the downward cycle on November 12. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is in the equilibrium state and we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 127.95. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we expect the downward movement after the breakdown of 143.40.Forecast for November 21:Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1469, 1.1430, 1.1403, 1.1382, 1.1352, 1.1315, 1.1289 and 1.1271. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upward structure on November 12 and forms the potential for the bottom of November 20. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1352. In this case, the goal is 1.1352. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1271, after reaching which we expect consolidation in the range of 1.1271 - 1.1289.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1382 - 1.1403 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1430 and this level is the key resistance to continue the upward movement. The breakdown will have to move to the potential target of 1.1469.The main trend is the upward structure of November 12, the stage of deep correction.Trading recommendations:Buy 1.1382 Take profit: 1.1402Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1430Sell: 1.1350 Take profit: 1.1315Sell: 1.1312 Take profit: 1.1290

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2966, 1.2928, 1.2878, 1.2843, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on November 7. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691. In this case, the potential target is 1.2603, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2843 - 1.2878 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2928. The range of 1.2928 - 1.2966 is the key support for the downward movement. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.The main trend is the downward structure of November 7, the stage of correction.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1.2845 Take profit: 1.2876Buy: 1.2880 Take profit: 1.2926Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2610Sell: Take profit:

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0013, 0.9985, 0.9959, 0.9943, 0.9923, 0.9909 and 0.9885. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure from November 13. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9923 - 0.9909 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 0.9885, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9943 - 0.9959 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9985 and the breakdown of which, in turn, will begin to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.The main trend is the downward cycle of November 13, the stage of correction.Trading recommendations:Buy: 0.9944 Take profit: 0.9957Buy: 0.9962 Take profit: 0.9982Sell: 0.9923 Take profit: 0.9910Sell: 0.9907 Take profit: 0.9887

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.33, 113.12, 112.82, 112.37, 112.10, 111.91 and 111.50. Here, we are following the downward structure of November 12. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 112.35. In this case, the goal is 112.10 and in the range of 112.10 - 111.91 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 111.50, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.We expect a movement in the correction after the breakdown of 112.82. In this case, the goal is 113.12. The potential value for the correction zone is considered the level of 113.33, before which, we expect the initial conditions for the top to be formed.The main trend is the medium-term descending structure of November 12, the stage of correction.Trading recommendations:Buy: 112.85 Take profit: 113.10Buy: 113.13 Take profit: 113.33Sell: 112.33 Take profit: 112.10Sell: 112.08 Take profit: 111.95

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3412, 1.3366, 1.3341, 1.3297, 1.3271 and 1.3232. Here, the next targets for the top are determined from the mid-term ascending structure on November 7. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3341 - 1.3366 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.3412, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3297 - 1.3271 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3232 and this level is the key support for the top.The main trend is the mid-term ascending structure of November 7, the local cycle of November 16.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1.3341 Take profit: 1.3364Buy: 1.3368 Take profit: 1.3410Sell: 1.3295 Take profit: 1.3273Sell: 1.3268 Take profit: 1.3236

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7287, 0.7254, 0.7234, 0.7194, 0.7169, 0.7148 and 0.7095. Here, we follow the formation of the potential for the downward cycle of November 16. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7194. In this case, the target is 0.7169 and in the range of 0.7169 - 0.7148 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7148 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.7095, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 0.7234 - 0.7254 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7287 and this level is the key support for the top.The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of November 16.Trading recommendations:Buy: 0.7234 Take profit: 0.7252Buy: 0.7256 Take profit: 0.7285Sell: 0.7192 Take profit: 0.7170Sell: 0.7144 Take profit: 0.7100

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.23, 127.98, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. The passage of the range of 129.00 - 129.17 will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 129.63.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.23 - 127.98. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 127.22 and in the range of 127.22 - 126.95 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41.The main trend is the equilibrium state.Trading recommendations:Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60Buy: Take profit:Sell: 128.23 Take profit: 128.00Sell: 127.93 Take profit: 127.30

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 146.65, 145.71, 145.00, 143.41, 142.51 and 141.28. Here, we are following the November 8 downward cycle. In the range of 143.41 - 142.51, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.28, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 145.00 - 145.71 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 146.65 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.The main trend is the downward structure of November 8.Trading recommendations:Buy: 145.00 Take profit: 145.66Buy: 145.74 Take profit: 145.65Sell: 143.40 Take profit: 142.60Sell: 142.45 Take profit: 141.35

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 21, 2018

As expected the EUR/USD pair has reversed from 1.1450-1.15 back below 1.14. This is a bearish sign. However short-term trend remains bullish and will only change on a daily close below 1.1350.

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Blue line - important support trend line

Black dots - medium strength resistance

Dark blue dots -maximum strength support

EUR/USD tried to break out of the bearish channel yesterday but got rejected and price came back down. Resistance is at 1.1430-1.1450 area and support at 1.1350-1.1330. Breaking below support will increase the chances of success of our bearish longer-term view. As long as price holds above the trend line, bulls remain in control. Next target is at 1.15. If however price breaks below 1.1350-1.1330 support area we should confirm a top is in and we are starting the next leg down.

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If investors stop believing in Brexit, the pound will collapse to $ 1.10

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The British pound can quickly fall to the level of 1.10 US dollars if the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without an agreement.

The pound sterling will suffer greatly if the likelihood that the transaction is not confirmed in December or January, and is not approved by the Prime Minister Theresa May or the country's parliament, will become a reality.

Analysts say that when a pound moves, it moves. The collapse of the pound to 1.10 dollars and the fall of the pound to 96-97 pence against the euro can occur "quickly."

Recall that on the eve of sterling sterling traded at around 1.2834 dollars and about 88.82 pence against the euro.

Note that less than five months before the time before Britain officially leaves the EU, both parties have not completed the settlement of their "divorce". If no agreement is reached by the end of March 2019, the pound sterling will fall to at least $ 1.20, as indicated by a survey of analysts by Reuters.

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Technical analysis for Gold for November 21, 2018

Gold price made a higher high yesterday at $1,228.40 exactly at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and got rejected. Price has pulled back towards $1,220 and the RSI is showing bearish divergence signs.

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Red rectangle - major resistance area

Blue lines - bearish divergence

Green line - trend line support

Gold price is trading at important resistance area according to our Fibonacci levels. The RSI bearish divergence gives us a warning strengthening our expectations for a bearish reversal in Gold prices. Support is at $1,219. Major support is at the green trend line and rising at $1,204. Breaking below the green trend line will confirm our bearish view. Stop for bears is at the red resistance area. They do not want to see that level broken. In the short-term we could see another minor new higher high towards $1,230-33. If this higher high gives us a lower RSI high, bulls need to be very careful as it will increase the chances of a bearish reversal.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Nov 21, 2018

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released from the eurozone. However, the US will release a series of economic reports such as Natural Gas Storage, Crude Oil Inventories, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1424

Strong Resistance:1.1417

Original Resistance: 1.1406

Inner Sell Area: 1.1395

Target Inner Area: 1.1368

Inner Buy Area: 1.1341

Original Support: 1.1330

Strong Support: 1.1319

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1312

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Nov 21, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m. The US will release a series of economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Crude Oil Inventories, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 113.48

Resistance 2: 113.26

Resistance 1: 113.03

Support 1: 112.77

Support 2: 112.54

Support 3: 112.32

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. GBP / USD review for the week of October 21

Wave pattern graphics H 4:

The algorithm of the short-term trend of the price of the pound major is set by the upward wave of August 15. In a larger design, it will become a correction.

Wave pattern graphics H1:

The rising wave of October 30 in the wave of the older TF has become the final part (C). The structure is completed testing of the middle part (B).

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Wave pattern graphics M15:

The ascending segment of November 15 has a turning potential. The probability of a quick change in the direction of the inter-day trend is high.

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Recommended trading strategy:

It is wiser for supporters of trading on large TFs to wait for the completion of the entire current correction. There may be successful purchases from the support area that is made in the inter-day style.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3220 / 1.3270

- 1.2960 / 1.3010

Support areas:

- 1.2750 / 1.2700

Explanations to the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C) . For the analysis, 3 main TFs are used. On each the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com