Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 18, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been trading close to the level of 1.3264 as it slowly approaches the recent swing high seen at the level of 1.3306. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3264 - 1.3283, so any violation of this zone will open the road towards the swing high seen at 1.3306. The local technical support is seen at the level of 1.3240 and 1.3165, so as long as GBP trades above this levels the outlook remains bullish. The higher time frame trend remains up as well with a target seen at the level of 1.3380.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3481

WR2 - 1.3397

WR1 - 1.3286

Weekly Pivot - 1.3197

WS1 - 1.3085

WS2 - 1.2994

WS3 - 1.2882

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken.

analytics5fb4c59780ef0.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD trading signals November 18

From a technical view,

EUR/USD is running out bullish strength in these recent days. Currently, this pair continues a weak corrective uptrend movement. Take note that the EUR/USD pair continues to trade within this bullish parallel channel, having bounced off the upper channel on 17 November and lower channel today. An upward trend line signals the continuation of the upward sentiment for another upper trendline test.

analytics5fb4c575ac053.jpg

A reversal in the opposite direction can be seen when the price approaches the upper boundaries of the channel which coincides with 1.190 psychological round figure mark.

EUR/USD also looks at risk of a near-term pullback as buyers are struggling to breach the resistance range at 1.1890 – 1.1900. However, remember that the trend will remain upward until the price breaches below the bullish channel. The probability of the pair's downward reversal is increasing.

Trading for a bearish move at this time is irrelevant, since there is support from the uptrend. Thus, traders are advised to wait for the upward reversal or signs of buyers' weakness below 1.190 in order to open short positions with targets at 1.1820 and 1.1780.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 18, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

Jay Clayton, who has served as chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission since May 2017, will leave the agency by the end of 2021.

In its official announcement, the agency noted that Clayton is one of the longest-serving people. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are likely to be familiar with the work of an agency that has dealt with some of the most controversial regulatory issues facing the new asset class.

These include early debates on whether certain crypto assets should be defined as a security according to the 71-year Howey test.

As CEO, Clayton also warned Bitcoin investors last year that they would be "very wrong", expecting the cryptocurrency to be traded on major exchanges without more solid regulation.

During Clayton's tenure, the SEC reportedly secured orders for more than $ 14 billion in cash, a record $ 4.68 billion in fiscal 2020 alone, and returned approximately $ 3.5 billion to affected investors. The commission also paid approximately $ 565 million to whistleblowers, the largest single amount paid out, $ 114 million.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made another yearly high at the level of $18,389 and the way to $20k remains intact. The market volatility has increased as the Bitcoin trades in the upper boundary of the the ascending channel. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $17,000 and the technical resistance is now a swing high located at $18,389. As long as the market trades above the level of $15,000 the short-term outlook remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $18,219

WR2 - $17,297

WR1 - $16,656

Weekly Pivot - $15,563

WS1 - $14,969

WS2 - $14,056

WS3 - $13,330

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $20,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $15,000 is broken.

analytics5fb4c4afd49f4.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 18? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

analytics5fb4ad092e86b.jpg

The EUR/USD pair almost corrected to the upward trend line last night, but did not even make an attempt to gain a foothold below it. Therefore, the upward trend is still present, and long positions on the European currency remain relevant. However, in yesterday's article we already mentioned the fact that long deals in the upper area of the horizontal channel do not look as attractive as in the lower one. Take note that the EUR /USD pair is still trading within the 1.1700-1.1900 horizontal channel, thus, no one has canceled the rules for trading in a flat. And these rules say: buy in the lower area of the horizontal channel, sell in the upper one. Therefore, now we are more inclined towards starting a new round of the downward movement. And to confirm this, you need to wait until the pair settles below the trend line and then start trading down. Of course, any flat ends sooner or later. Therefore, if the price manages to overcome the 1.1903 level, then the upward trend will continue and in this case it will be possible to take risks and buy the euro.

No major macroeconomic reports in America today, Wednesday, November 18. Therefore, traders will be drawn to the inflation report for the European Union. Unfortunately, there is little chance that this report will somehow influence the course of trading. We do not expect this indicator to change significantly, and its value is such that it is unlikely to support the euro. So now novice traders should try to understand the general fundamental background of the pair. That is, the totality of all important topics and their possible consequences for the euro and dollar. Since the greenback (dollar) has not been growing in recent weeks and even months, we can reasonably conclude that the general fundamental background is not in favor of the dollar. Therefore, only positive news from America regarding important topics like the fight against the coronavirus or the transfer of power by Donald Trump to Joe Biden can support the US dollar. Or negative news from the European Union can create pressure on the euro, for example, on the topics of coronavirus and Poland and Hungary blocking the EU budget for 2021-2027 or something of a similar scale. Without this, the pair will either be inside the horizontal channel of 1.17-1.19, or it will try to continue the upward movement. But for this you need to overcome the 1.1903 level.

Possible scenarios for November 18:

1) Long positions are now relevant since the price is trading above the upward trend line. The growth potential of the euro, as always, is limited by the 1.1903 level, and the price has come close to it. Thus, formally, when opening new buy positions, you need to wait for a new signal to buy the MACD and trade up while aiming for 1.1889 and 1.1903, but traders must decide for themselves whether they are ready to take risks on this transaction. As we have already said, there is a high probability of starting a new round of downward movement.

2) Trading for a fall at this time is irrelevant, since there is a pronounced upward trend. Therefore, novice traders are advised to wait until the upward trend has ended in order to have a reason to open short positions. Namely, the price should settle below the trend line. In this case, we open sell orders while aiming for 1.1837 and 1.1814.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 18, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

According to the announcement, the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic is drafting a bill that would regulate the exchange of cryptocurrencies in consultation with industry stakeholders.

The bank said the bill will regulate the sale and purchase of cryptocurrencies in order to combat fraudulent cryptocurrency schemes and financial crimes, as well as protect the rights of consumers and investors.

Among the expected benefits of the upcoming regulations, the bank highlights the improved development of digital financial products, favorable conditions for the business environment, and even the possible introduction of a formal tax regime for digital assets.

However, the bank also expects cryptocurrency laws to be tied up with other hurdles, stating that the cross-border nature of many private cryptocurrencies will make it difficult for law enforcement without adequate monitoring and implementation infrastructure.

In fact, the bank says that due to the "lack of regulation and the chaotic nature of the cryptocurrency market," there is no hard data on the number of businesses that would fall under the new law.

According to the announcement, the bank expects the strict cryptocurrency regulations to provide more confidence to cryptocurrency businesses and attract investment without significantly impacting the government budget.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has broken the supply zone located between the levels of $459.44 - $476.29 and made a new high at the level of $493.74. The outlook remains bullish and the next target for bulls is the level of $500, but the recent Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern might be a first sign of a warning. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $487.70. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market and might push the prices deeper below this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $507.71

WR2 - $490.25

WR1 - $463.71

Weekly Pivot - $448.80

WS1 - $421.33

WS2 - $405.66

WS3 - $377.90

Trading Recommendations:

The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $360 is broken.

analytics5fb4c38567c3b.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBPUSD for November 18, 2020

analytics5fb4b55c371e2.jpg

Technical outlook:

GBPUSD is testing its recent swing highs close to 1.3300/15 mark before reversing lower again. The Cable currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.3263 levels at this point in writing and might push beyond 1.3315 levels marginally, before resuming lower again. Immediate resistance for now is seen at 1.3315, followed by 1.3488; while interim support comes in at 1.3100 levels respectively. Once bears are able to break below 1.3100 levels, it will confirm that they are back in control. On the flip side, if GBPUSD breaks above 1.3500 mark it could change the structure to bullish in the short term. We remain prepared tor a shallow high above 1.3315, but GBPUSD stays below 1.3488 highs, going forward. The overall structure remains bearish with bias towards 1.2675 and 1.2200 levels in the next several weeks. Also note that 1.2200 is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous rally between 1.1414 and 1.3488 respectively. Hence high probability remains for a bullish reversal if prices manage to reach there.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 1.3500, target @ 1.2200

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for USDJPY for November 18, 2020

analytics5fb4b2173d2a0.jpg

Technical outlook:

USDJPY had rallied from 103.18 through 105.65 levels over the last week before pulling back. The currency pair is seen to be trading around the 104.00 levels at the time of writing and is expected to move higher anytime soon. Immediate support is seen towards 103.18 while resistance is around 106.00, followed by 107.00 levels respectively. The overall structure remains bullish until prices stay above the 101.18 levels, ideally 103.18 is also expected to hold from here on. Also note that USDJPY is trading near the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above rally (104.13), hence high probability remains for a bullish reversal from here. Looking at the larger boundary, USDJPY bulls should remain poised to push through the 111.75 levels in the next several weeks to come.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop @ 103.00, target @ 107.00, 109.50 and 110.00

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 18, 2020

analytics5fb4ad6ce9dd7.jpg

Nothing is happening here... GBP/JPY is trading within a very narrow band between 137.71 - 138.30. This is building up energy and once a break out of this range is seen, we can expect to see a quick run. We expect the upside to be broken for a quick run towards 138.87 and the former peak at 142.72. That said, we have to be aware of the risk that the downside will give away a cause a spike lower to the uptrend-line near 136.25. This is clearly not our preferred scenario, but at this point we can't exclude the possibility.

R3: 140.17

R2: 139.06

R1: 138.51

Pivot: 138.30

S1: 137.93

S2: 137.71

S3: 137.51

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.45 with our stop placed at 137.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for November 18, 2020

analytics5fb4aabe41799.jpg

Technical outlook:

EURUSD might be attempting to re-test the 1.1900/20 levels before reversing lower again. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.1867 levels at the time of writing after having rallied through 1.1893 yesterday. It faces immediate resistance around 1.1920 followed by 1.2010, while interim support comes in at the 1.1750 level respectively. The overall structure remains bearish until prices stay below the 1.2010 mark and a break below 1.1750 will confirm that bears are back in control. Also note that fibonacci 0.786 retracement of the drop between 1.2010 and 1.1610 is seen to be passing through 1.1932, which is a highly probable reversal zone if prices manage to reach there. EURUSD is expected to drop through the 1.1500 levels at least, which is close to fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between 1.0636 and 1.2010 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 1.2010, target @ 1.1500 and 1.1150

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 18, 2020

analytics5fb4ac018bfd9.jpg

EUR/JPY finally spiked lower to the expected corrective target at 123.58 (the low has been see at 123.36) this should complete the correction from 125.13 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally towards the former peak at 127.02 and likely closer to 129.36. Short-ter a break above minor resistance at 124.20 will confirm the completion of this correction and the expected rally higher to 125.13 and 127.02 as the next upside targets.

R3: 125.13

R2: 124.47

R1: 124.20

Pivot: 124.03

S1: 123.47

S2: 123.36

S3: 123.25

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.25 with our stop placed at 123.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Forecast for November 18, 2020

AUD / USD

The Australian Dollar lost 20 points yesterday. Yesterday's peak allowed us to form a divergence with the Marlin oscillator. To fix it and actually turn the market down, the price needs to be fixed under the Kruzenshtern line-- below 0.7264-- and then fall below the nearest target level of 0.7222 at least on November 12-13. The nearest target is 0.7120.

analytics5fb48c3d3cf5c.jpg

On the four-hour chart, the price is already attacking the Kruzenshtern line at 0.7275. Note that the Krusenstern lines on both time charts almost coincide in price, which makes the 0.7264/75 range particularly important.

analytics5fb48c4e2c167.jpg

Fixing under the specified range can trigger a strong drop in the price. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on H4 has already entered the zone of negative values. The probability of a downward scenario is 80%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair 11/18/20

Yesterday, the pair went up and tested the pullback level of 85.4% - 1.1894 (blue dotted line), then the price went down, closing the daily candle at 1.1861. Today, the market may continue to move up according to the economic calendar news, it is expected at 10.00 and 15.00 UTC (Euro), at 13.30 and 15.30 UTC (dollar).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.1861 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the pullback level of 85.4% - 1.1894 (blue dotted line). If this level will be tested, the upward movement will continue with the next target 1.1920 at the upper fractal (candle from 09.11.2020). After reaching this level, there will be a further work up with the goal of 1.1954 at the upper border of the Bollinger line indicator (black dotted line).

analytics5fb4c690ab121.jpg

Figure 1 (daily chart).

Complex Analysis:

  • Indicator Analysis - up
  • Fibonacci Levels - up
  • Volumes - up
  • Technical Analysis - down
  • Trend Analysis - up
  • Bollinger Bands - up
  • Weekly Chart - up

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move up to reach the pullback level of 85.4% - 1.1894 (blue dotted line). If this level will be tested, the upward movement will continue with the next target 1.1920 at the upper fractal (candle from 09.11.2020). After reaching this level, there will be a further work up with the goal of 1.1954 at the upper border of the Bollinger line indicator (black dotted line).

Unlikely scenario: when moving up and reaching the pullback level of 85.4% - 1.1894 (blue dotted line), the price may start moving down to the pullback level of 23.6% - 1.1844 (red dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 18. COT reports. Pound buyers settled above 1.3237, they don't know what

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In yesterday's afternoon forecast, I drew attention to the breakout and being able to settle above the resistance of 1.3237, but, unfortunately, by that time I could not anticipate a convenient entry point to long positions. I also mentioned that one should wait until the 1.3237 level has been tested from top to bottom and only then enter long positions, which happened. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears are returning GBP/USD to the support area of 1.3237, afterwards a new wave of growth appeared. However, the lack of progress in the Brexit trade talks is holding back consumer demand.

analytics5fb49f2971d2f.jpg

From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. I recommend opening long positions only if the bulls keep 1.3237, or form a false breakout, in order to sustain the upward trend. This may happen immediately after the UK inflation report has been released. If the report matches the economists' forecasts or turns out to be better than forecasts, then the bulls will continue to buy the pound. In this case, the buyers' nearest target will be this month's high at 1.3310, where the upward movement will initially stop. Only a breakthrough and being able to settle above this range will produce a new wave of growth for the pound, and an exit in the areas of 1.3378 and 1.3467, which is where I recommend taking profits. If the data turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, and inflation decelerates more than expected, then GBP/USD will quickly return below the 1.3237 level. In this scenario, it is best to postpone long positions until the 1.3168 low has been updated, or to buy the pair immediately on a rebound from the larger area of 1.3106, which is a kind of lower border of the wide horizontal channel of 1.3106-1.3310 in which the pound has been in for the whole month.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears will continue to struggle in regaining control over the 1.3237 level, which they managed to miss yesterday morning amid the lack of fundamental statistics and news on Brexit. Today's inflation report may become a determining factor for the pound's succeeding direction in the short term. Weak data will provide an opportunity for bears to return GBP/USD below the 1.3237 level. Testing it from the bottom up produces a good enough entry point for short positions, which can pull down the pound to the 1.3168 low, where I recommend taking profits. Only a breakout of 1.3168 and being able to settle below this range will give sellers more confidence, which will open a straight path to the lows of 1.3106 and 1.3034. In case sellers are not active and we receive good UK inflation data, then it is best to postpone short positions until the 1.3310 highs are renewed, provided that a false breakout is formed there. I recommend selling GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from a high of 1.3378, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

analytics5fb49f3112c33.jpg

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 10 showed a slight increase in long positions and a sharp inflow of short positions. Long non-commercial positions rose from 27,701 to 27,872. At the same time, short non-commercial positions increased from 38,928 to 45,567. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was -17,695, against -11,227 weeks earlier, which indicates that the sellers of the British pound retains control and also shows their minimal advantage in the current situation.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of continued bullish momentum.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3275 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. A breakout of the lower border at 1.3237 will increase pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 18. COT reports. Euro buyers fizzle out

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

In yesterday's afternoon forecast, I paid special attention to buy positions on the European currency after the breakdown and getting the pair to settle above the resistance of 1.1868. Which is exactly what happened. And even if you did not have time for the first wave of the movement, you certainly had to enter long positions after retesting this area from top to bottom. I have marked two entry points for buying the euro on the 5-minute chart. The second wave of growth was even stronger than the first, and was worth 25 points, but the bulls failed to build a more powerful upward momentum.

analytics5fb49c7e9d681.jpg

News that Poland and Hungary have blocked the EU budget for the next seven years, as well as the Stabilization Fund, caused the bullish momentum in the euro to decrease. Buyers currently need to form a false breakout at the 1.1844 level, since this will keep the pair bullish, which can return it to the resistance area of 1.1890. But do not forget that in order to maintain the trend, buyers need to update yesterday's highs. I recommend opening long positions from 1.1890 only when the pair has settled above this range and afterwards, it should be tested on the reverse side, and also, today's data on inflation in the eurozone should turn out to be much better than economists' forecasts, which, unfortunately, will not happen. If the pair moves below the support of 1.1844 and bulls are not particularly active at this level, then the downward correction is likely to intensify. In this scenario, there is no need to rush with buy positions. It is best to wait until the 1.1802 low has been updated, or open long positions immediately on a rebound from the larger support 1.1749, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The initial challenge for sellers is to reclaim the 1.1844 level, which they lost yesterday morning and then they were unable to recover even after we received a weak report on US retail sales, which turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts. Getting the pair to settle below 1.1844 and testing it from the bottom up produces a more convenient entry point to short positions in hopes to bring back the downward trend. In this case, the nearest target of the bears will be the low of 1.1802. Updating this level will only be evidence that the upward trend has been broken and that the pair is stuck in a horizontal channel. A breakout and getting the pair to settle below this range will lead EUR/USD to the area of the lower border of the horizontal channel at 1.1749, where I recommend taking profits. However, this scenario can be achieved only in the event of a larger decrease in inflation in the euro area than economists expect. If the bulls turn out to be stronger and continue to push the pair up after the eurozone data has been published, then it is best not to rush to sell, but wait until yesterday's resistance at 1.1890 has been updated, where forming a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions in the euro. I recommend selling EUR/USD immediately on a rebound but only from the monthly high of 1.1929, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

analytics5fb49c8681acd.jpg

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 10 showed a reduction in long and short positions. Euro bulls are holding on to a wait-and-see attitude and are in no hurry to return to the market even after the US presidential elections. Despite this, buyers of risky assets believe that the bull market will continue, although they prefer to proceed with caution. Thus, long non-commercial positions decreased from 208,237 to 202,374, while short non-commercial positions remained practically unchanged, falling from 67,888 to 67,087. The total non-commercial net position decreased to 135,287 against 140,349 a week earlier. It is worth noting that the delta has been declining for seven consecutive weeks, which confirms the buyers' lack of desire to enter the market in the current conditions. Growth will only begin after Joe Biden's victory as he intends to endow the American economy with the next largest monetary aid package worth more than $2 trillion.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates uncertainty with a further direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator around 1.1844 will lead to a larger sell-off in the euro. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1890 area will strengthen the demand for the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 18, 2020

USD/JPY

The yen strengthened by 37 points on Tuesday, this morning the 104.05 target level was reached. Now we are waiting for the price to overcome this level so that the pair could fall to the 103.18 target . The advantage of just such a scenario is indicated by the Marlin oscillator, whose signal line is decreasing along a steep trajectory.

analytics5fb48bd7d9322.jpg

The four-hour chart shows that the price is developing under both indicator lines, and the MACD line marks its own downward reversal, which reinforces the downward short-term trend. The Marlin oscillator is declining in its own channel. There are no signs of a price reversal yet. We are waiting for the price to settle below the 104.05 level and for it to move to 103.18.

analytics5fb48be333b5a.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 18, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday the euro rose by 42 points, slightly falling short of the MACD line on the daily timeframe. The previous price peak from November 9 reached the resistance of the MACD line, and therefore the growth from the last four days that did not retest the MACD line can be taken as a correction from the fall on November 9-11. With such a plan, the price can fall to the target level of 1.1620 without much difficulty. But first you need to settle under 1.1750 in order to make sure that the price will move exactly according to this plan. At the preliminary stage, the price should settle below the nearest level of 1.1830.

analytics5fb48d2024e55.jpg

The Marlin oscillator is turning to the downside. It is especially important to accelerate the decline of the oscillator as a leading instrument in the coming days, because if Marlin behaves differently, we might not have a downward trend.

We see a rising situation on the four-hour chart. The price is above both indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is also in the positive zone.

analytics5fb48d30012c1.jpg

Take note that the MACD indicator line is close to the 1.1830 level, at 1.1802. Therefore, the price consolidating below 1.1830 on a daily scale should be perceived as the price falling below 1.1802.

If this does not happen, then the actual growth target will become 1.1940 and the resistance of the MACD line at 1.1904 will become an intermediate resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 18, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling rose by 54 points on Tuesday, and it settled above the MACD line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in the positive zone. Therefore, the pound has the strongest position among other counter-dollar currencies. The target remains - the range of 1.3350/80.

analytics5fb48cb1ae821.jpg

The four-hour chart shows that the price is staying above both indicator lines: above the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). Marlin is growing in the positive zone. We expect the pound to continue rising.

analytics5fb48cbca792f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBPUSD - forecasts of a positive and negative outcome of BREXIT

While the negotiations between England and Brussels on a trade agreement are in full swing, traders have become more active and under the auspices of Bloomberg began to actively fantasize, and what would happen if..?

Everyone understands that a negative outcome on Brexit will lead to an instant weakening of the British currency. So after four years of divorce litigation, even the most ardent speculators are tired, and now, the result without a deal will affect the trading chart by weakening the pound by about 5% of the total value according to the survey.

A positive outcome of the existing negotiations, which will be expressed by the conclusion of a peace deal, according to a bloomberg survey, may lead to the strengthening of the British currency by another 2% of the current value. It is worth noting that relative to the March lows, the pound against the dollar has already strengthened by more than 16%, so such a modest scale of 2% may be considered justified.

Don't forget that even a positive Brexit is a blow to the UK economy, which is declining in volume throughout the long-running process, if you don't take into account the catastrophic global crisis of 2020

If you go back to the current Brexit negotiations, you can see that the media is actively full of rumors that the parties are allegedly closer to a positive outcome and close officials plan to announce a breakthrough on Monday.

Toxic info-noise with unjustified expectations leads to local strengthening of the pound.

At the same time, these same "Insider" sources claim that the talks may still fail, as the two sides are still some distance apart on familiar stumbling blocks that have plagued the talks since they began in March. Getting a deal will still require the UK to make serious political decisions about whether it is willing to compromise, especially on the thorny issue of access to British fishing waters, an EU official said.

To be brief, Britain and the EU are using the pressure of time to try to force each other to compromise.

It is worth recalling that even in the case of a positive outcome, the parties need to ratify the agreement and this process also requires time.

According to information on the ratification of the agreement to the British Parliament a couple of days, while the European Parliament this should take about three weeks.

In terms of technical analysis, you can see that during the past day there was an attempt to reverse the quote, where market participants locally managed to go down to the area of 1.3165, but then there was a stop with a reverse move in the direction of the rebound point of 1.3240. Approximately zero change, where the daily candle is close to the "Doji" shape.

Unfortunately, the information background does not allow us to fully develop the downward interest, thus the multi-stage system described in previous reviews may be postponed indefinitely.

As for the market dynamics for November 16, there is the lowest indicator since the beginning of November, it was 76 points, which is 38% below the average level. It is worth considering that even with such a high discrepancy between the average and daily dynamics, minute intervals reflect acceleration, where the naked eye can see the speculative hype.

Looking at the trading chart in General terms (daily period), you can see that the recovery relative to the September downward tact is more than 80%, and this indicates a high desire on the part of buyers in this period.

analytics5fb494cfbf24c.jpg

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have statistics for the UK but the United States has something to report for.

Retail sales in the United States seemed to grow but also decreased, this was due to the fact that the previous indicators were revised in favor of growth from 5.4% to 5.9%, and the current value came out at 5.7%.

After that, we published data on the volume of industrial production, which came out better than the forecast. The previous indicator was revised for the better -7.3 - - - > - 6.7%, and the current indicator reflected an even greater slowdown in the rate of decline to - 5.3%.

Analyzing the current trading chart, you can see that the maximum of the last day had passed, and the speculative mood associated with some rumors about the positive outcome of Brexit began to chase a quote to the side of the 1,3300 level.

Now everything depends on further information of the noise as fixing prices higher than USD 1.3300 for a four-hour period can increase the chances of buyers for further recovery relative to September, where the impact will be local maximum 1,3480.

It is worth considering that the pound is already overbought and a small change in background information, for example, it could lead to a reduction in long positions and as a result of a natural rebound from a low of 1.3300.

Thereby keeping prices lower than USD 1.3300 leaves the sellers in a descending course.

analytics5fb494d388ca1.jpg

Indicator Analysis

Upon analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), it is clear that the indicators of technical instruments continue to follow the upward course signaling a purchase.

analytics5fb494d6dc94c.jpg

Volatility for the week / Volatility Measurement: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation based on the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(November 17 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The Dynamics of the current time is only 86 points, which is 30% below the average level, but you can see speculative interest which you can earn by operating on smaller time periods.

analytics5fb494da18f99.jpg

Key level

Resistance zones: 1,3300**; 1,3600; 1,3850; 1,4000***; 1,4350**.

The support area: 1,3175(1,3200); 1,3000***; 1,2840/1,2860/1,2885; 1,2770**; 1,2620; 1,2500; 1,2350**; 1,2250; 1,2150**; 1,2000*** (1,1957);1,1850; 1,1660; 1,1450 (1,1411).

* Periodic level

** Band level

***Psychological level

I advise you to read the articles:

EURUSD-Great America is like a circus

GBPUSD is the never-ending word BREXIT

Trading recommendations on the currency market for novice traders-EURUSD and GBPUSD 17.11.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 18. COT report. COT report. Analysis of Tuesday. Recommendations

GBP/USD 1H

The GBP/USD pair weakly moved up on Tuesday, November 17. The upward trend line remains relevant, therefore, you are advised to trade to the upside now. According to yesterday's recommendations, we should have stayed long with the 1.3298 target. Yesterday, this level was not reached, nevertheless, the upward trend is still present. Therefore, the bulls continue to be the dominant traders in the market, and the pound/dollar pair retains excellent prospects for succeeding growth. Take note that the current fundamental background does not support the pound's growth. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the previous local high near the 1.3300 level may turn out to be the peak of the entire upward trend of recent months. At least now it is very difficult to even guess what basis traders can continue to buy the pound. Nevertheless, long positions remain relevant until the price settles below the trend line. Bears are advised to wait until the trend line has been overcome, which will lead to a trend reversal to a downward trend.

GBP/USD 15M

analytics5fb464dcdcf7f.jpg

Both linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, so there are no signs of the end of the upward trend at the moment. Therefore, the pair may rise again to the resistance level of 1.3298. Further prospects of the bulls will depend on overcoming or not overcoming this level.

COT report

analytics5fb464e5e5c5a.jpg

The GBP/USD pair increased by 250 points in the last reporting week (November 3-9). It is not surprising that the pound strengthened, since the US presidential election was held during this period, and the dollar was declining against its main competitors. However, the pound began to grow after this period. In general, the pound has been growing recently. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports does not really provide any useful information. Non-commercial traders closed 3,300 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,100 Sell-contracts (shorts). Therefore, they became more bearish, and the net position decreased by 4,400, which is not so small for the pound. Recall that the "non-commercial" group opened a total number of 87,000 contracts. Thus, 4,400 is 5%. As for the general trend among professional traders, the indicators in the chart clearly show that there is no trend at this time. The green line (net position of non-commercial traders) on the first indicator constantly changes its direction. The second indicator also shows the absence of a trend, as professional traders increase the net position, then reduce it. Thus, no long-term conclusions or forecasts can still be made based on the COT report. We recommend paying more attention to technique and foundation.

The fundamental background for the British pound did not change on Tuesday. In principle, you can clearly see this from the way the pair traded yesterday. The movements were smooth, the volatility was low. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech did not provide any new and important information, although traders continue to wait for hints from the central bank about the timing of the introduction of negative rates. However, they cannot get this information yet. Not a single macroeconomic report was published on Tuesday. There was also no new information regarding the negotiation of the trade deal. We mean official information. Therefore, traders continue to trade the pair rather sluggishly and wait for important information on the most important topics. And there are now plenty of such both in the United States and in the UK. You just need to wait for one of these topics to explode.

Bailey is set to speak once again on Wednesday. However, we do not expect anything new and interesting from the head of the British central bank. In addition to this event, the publication of the consumer price index for October will also take place. According to experts' forecasts, inflation will accelerate to 0.6% y/y, but this value still remains quite low. It is unlikely that it will be able to provoke new purchases of the British currency. However, the pound does not really need the support of the fundamental background from Britain right now. The negative background from the US and traders' hopes for an agreement in the negotiations between Brussels and London keep the pound afloat.

We have two trading ideas for November 18:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair continue to hold the initiative in their hands. Thus, we advise you to continue buying the pair while aiming for the resistance levels of 1.3298 and 1.3409, if the bulls continue to manage to keep the pair above the trend line. Take Profit in this case will be from 40 to 150 points.

2) Sellers have not been able to take the pair below the trend line. If the price settles below the trend line and below the support area of 1.3160 -1.3184, the trend will change to a downward trend and you can sell the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.3081) and support area of 1.3004-1.3024. Take Profit in this case can range from 60 to 120 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD - Another COVID-19 vaccine has been tested, but it will not save us from harsh measures

Another vaccination born against the COVID-19 virus was raging all over the world. This time, the American company Moderna Inc. reported that the effectiveness of the drug during the final test was 94.5%. Everything would be fine if not for the cost, which, according to experts, can be more than $ 37 per injection. Not everyone will be able to afford such an expensive drug, and even if they want to buy it, they still won't be able to, since the United States itself will get it first, which played with the presidential election and missed its second wave of infections.

Thus, the United States is storming the maximum daily growth day after day according to the latest report, and the indicators have gone far beyond 100 thousand detected cases per day and now amount to about 160 thousand. The absolute maximum was set just a few days ago – 181 thousand, and the total number of people infected with coronavirus infection exceeds the mark of 11 million, and this data is only for the United States.

With such a terrifying trend and the lack of a proper deterrent tool in many states, the news about large-scale quarantines is no longer considered something surprising, there is only one question—why was it delayed so long?

The US presidential election turned out to be the most important topic for the current government than the health of its own citizens, but this is their choice.

Quarantine measures from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Following the data received, California has announced an immediate tightening of quarantine measures since November 16, a mask regime has been introduced throughout the state, and people must wear them literally everywhere. According to the order of the Governor, the previously announced resumption of work of enterprises will be postponed, and most of the state's educational institutions will suspend training.

In turn, the Governor of New York decided on a curfew for bars and restaurants, which will have to close at 10 p.m., as well as gyms, while internal meetings should be limited to a maximum of 10 people.

The Governor of New Jersey followed the example of New York and introduced new restrictions. It is now forbidden to hold meetings of more than 10 people, previously there were 25.

The existing restrictions can only be the beginning if the upward trend fails to change to a decline in the near future.

The US dollar has yet a proper reaction to the actions of some states, perhaps this is due to the fact that investors are looking at the situation with COVID relative to the whole world.

Therefore, Europe is already in the zone of full-scale restrictive measures, and the trend of infections is still growing.

The French government says bars and restaurants will remain closed until mid-January as the government tries to quell a renewed outbreak of the virus. According to recently published data, France is working on a long-term strategy to combat the pandemic, and the tactics will be presented at the end of November. According to rumors, the strategy provides for restrictive measures until the summer of 2021.

It is now understood why investors do not suddenly run out of the US dollar, as it is not clear where it is safer to hold assets at the moment.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was the only person who expressed optimism about the current situation. The chancellor hoped that the pace of recovery in Europe will come as soon as it is possible to control the virus (COVID-19).

Merkel noted that the German economy has recovered strongly after the collapse in activity in the spring of this year, but new restrictive measures introduced after a new wave of infections will lead to stagnation at best in the last quarter. This is despite financial assistance for the most affected sectors, such as hospitality and entertainment.

Since the market can change as quickly as there is information noise, the situation in the global economy is very difficult. Traders should think a hundred times before laying strategic positions.

In terms of technical analysis, it can be seen that the quote in the period of November 16 tried to return to the level of 1.1810, but at the end of the day it still remained above this coordinate, which gives confidence to buyers.

Presumably, if the new restrictive measures in the United States will affect the volume of dollar positions, then the prospect of a move to the local maximum of November 9, 1.1920, does not look like something supernatural.

The bigger problem will be the fact that if the European currency manages to gain a foothold higher than 1.1920. In this case, the main psychological indicator of 1.2000, where there was already a quote in the period of September 1, will be at risk.

As for the market dynamics for November 16, low activity continues to be recorded, which is considered abnormal. So since November 12, there has been a decline in volatility, which on November 13 was only 38 points. Yesterday, the market accelerated slightly to 54 points, but it is still 32% below the average level.

Such a long-term restraint of trade forces, with such a stable information noise, indicates the accumulation process, which can eventually lead to a sharp acceleration in the market.

At the trading chart in general terms (daily period), the sideways trend is still considered mainly in the medium term. However, if the psychological level of 1.2000 falls, then everything may change.

analytics5fb3f2ac420cb.jpg

In terms of the economic calendar today, we received data on retail sales, where the previous data was revised in favor of growth from 5.4% to 5.9%, and the current indicator reflected 5.7%, which coincides with market expectations.

Data on the volume of industrial production was published after that, which came out better than the forecast. The previous indicator was revised for the better -7.3 - - - > -6.7%, and the current indicator reflected an even greater slowdown in the rate of decline to -5.3%.

In the current trading chart, it is visible that the rapid upward movement led to almost complete recovery of the euro relative to the decline over the past week. Only time will tell whether this will be a new stage of upward development—it is too early to draw conclusions. In order to minimize the volume of short positions, the quote must be kept higher than 1.1920, preferably on a four-hour period. In this case, the movement to the psychological level of 1.2000 should be talked about.

Until the above scenario comes true, it is advisable not to exclude the natural basis of the price rebound from the area of 1.1900/1.1920, for it has repeatedly happened in history.

analytics5fb3f2c877ac5.jpg

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), it is clear that the indicators of technical instruments at minute intervals signal a sale due to the initial fixation of long positions after an intensive upward move. The hourly and daily intervals are still on an upward wave, signaling a purchase.

analytics5fb4889ca83a8.jpg

Weekly volatility / Volatility measurement: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(November 17 was based on the time of publication of the article) the

The dynamics of the current time is only 50 points, which is 37% below the average level. The market participants will likely take a pause, as a new round of acceleration is waiting for us with the start of the European session. An exception to the rule may be the information background. For example, a new set of restrictions on the United States will be published, which will give an incentive to speculators.

analytics5fb488a0dae5c.jpg

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1,1900-20**; 1,2000***; 1,2100*; 1,2450**; 1,2550; 1,2825.

Support zones: 1,1810*; 1,1700; 1,1612*;1,1500; 1,1350; 1,1250*;1,1180**; 1,1080; 1,1000***.

*Periodic level

**Range level

***Psychological level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 18. What are the chances of Donald Trump reviewing the election results through the

4-hour timeframe

analytics5fb46548f10fc.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 99.1078

The British pound sterling in pair with the US dollar continued to rise in price for most of Tuesday, November 17. After another unsuccessful attempt to start a downward movement (fixing the price below the moving average), the quotes again resumed moving north. Despite the difficult fundamental background for the British currency. However, we have repeatedly talked about a very strange strengthening of the British currency. From our point of view, it is completely unfounded, and the pound sterling is overbought. For a while, the pound could get more expensive due to the "four types of crisis" in America (summer months and September), but then the situation stabilized a little and now only the epidemiological crisis causes serious concerns. Nevertheless, it is the pound that continues to grow although the UK also has a very difficult situation with the "coronavirus", with the economy, and with Brexit. However, as we have also repeatedly stated, any fundamental theory must find technical confirmation. There are no confirmations, so the pair is continuing its upward movement.

The UK has its saga. If in the States it is "elections and Donald Trump", in Britain it is "Brexit and trade negotiations". Unfortunately, to date, it is still unclear at what stage the negotiations between the groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost are at, what is the progress? From time to time, there are reports in the media from circles close to the negotiating groups or the government, but all these reports are different and often contradict each other. For example, only in the last few days, the media reported that David Frost had informed Boris Johnson of a possible agreement next week. That there are still serious disagreements about fishing and fair competition. The fact that the UK is still not afraid to leave the European Union without any agreements. Some media outlets report a "stalemate" on the issue of fishing. Some talk about overall progress in the negotiations. Perhaps this is the reason for the growth of the British currency. Remember, how many times the pound sterling (since 2016) has grown when there were no reasons for this? How many times did it grow up solely on rumors, expectations, and hopes? This is probably the case right now. Perhaps market participants (primarily major players) believe that the deal will eventually be agreed upon, and this is why the British currency is strengthening. Thus, despite the appearance of a failed fundamental background, as we can see, there are reasons why the pound may well show growth. Another thing is that if officials eventually announce a failure in the negotiations, the pound may collapse down by 500-600 points, if not more. And this may happen in the next few days, maximum - weeks. As early as this week, an EU summit will be held, during which issues related to the UK, Brexit, and deal negotiations are to be discussed. We remind traders that the European Union is also studying the possibility of legal proceedings with London over the "Johnson bill", which has not yet been adopted but may be adopted in the future even though the House of Lords rejected it. In general, despite the growth of the British currency, we still believe that at any moment this currency can fall like a stone.

Meanwhile, not all US political analysts are sure that the election is over and Donald Trump has finished the fight for the presidency. Experts from the Harvard University School of Economics conducted a study that identified 285 different scenarios, following which Donald Trump may try to stay in power. The main reasons for Trump's irrepressible desire to remain President, experts call the deprivation of immunity and a huge number of lawsuits against him and his business empire. While Trump is President, lawsuits are not considered or are considered "through the fingers", and Trump himself is inviolable. Trump loses the post – and all claims to him will no longer be claimed by the US President, but claims to an ordinary US citizen. As a result, the school's researchers even identified a clear strategy for Trump's actions, which began to be implemented several months ago, long before the election. First, Trump began to form a negative attitude towards the Democrats in advance, regularly stating that they would try to rig the election with the help of "postal voting". Secondly, Trump started talking about the so-called "red gap" in advance: Trump first pulled ahead, and then quickly lost his advantage due to ballots that came in the mail (that is, later), in which the majority of votes is given to Biden (but this was known before the election). Thus, this effect Trump from the very beginning tried to pass off as a scam, saying that the Democrats through this scheme can wind up any number of votes since they will know how many votes Trump has. Third, Trump tried his best to find violations in the voting and counting in every state in which he lost. Whether it's a broken counting machine, not allowing representatives of the Republican Party to the precinct or a glitch in the software that is responsible for counting votes. Fourth, the dismissal of Mark Esper as Secretary of Defense, whom Trump could not rely on because of the latter's public refusal to use military force to disperse demonstrators during rallies and racially motivated protests over the summer. Fifth, the appointment of "his" judge to the US Supreme Court in case the case goes to the Supreme Court. Sixth, Trump, through lawsuits in civil courts, achieves the maximum delay in the announcement of the official and final election results. Seventh, Trump will try to recognize elections in a particular state as invalid, in which case the electoral college will be appointed by the state authorities, not by the voters. And if these authorities are Republicans, then they will appoint Republicans. Thus, despite the apparent unambiguity of Trump's defeat, indeed, everything may still be incomplete, and the remaining six weeks of a crazy 2020 may still present surprises.

For the US dollar, all this political chaos is a negative factor. We have already said that market participants are afraid of uncertainty, so the longer Trump keeps the chances of a "coup", the longer the dollar remains under pressure. Another thing is that in the UK, the situation is such that it is extremely difficult for the pound to find reasons for growth. However, both currencies cannot become cheaper at the same time.

analytics5fb4655106a80.jpg

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 99 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Wednesday, November 18, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3156 and 1.3354. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3245

S2 – 1.3184

S3 – 1.3123

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3306

R2 – 1.3367

R3 – 1.3428

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is trying to continue moving up on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3354 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.3123 and 1.3062 if the price is fixed below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD evening review 17.11 Euro grows

analytics5fb3f55d9119c.jpg

EUR USD

The Euro is going up but purchases are already risky.

We are holding purchases from 1.1825 but we are already ready for a stop-flip down from 1.1840.

Sales from 1.1840 and lower from 1.1810.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 18. Hungary and Poland block the adoption of the EU budget. The transfer of power

4-hour timeframe

analytics5fb465179a1d7.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 109.5623

The second trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was again fairly calm. During the day, the euro/dollar pair continued its upward movement within the side channel of 1.1700-1.1900, which we have already mentioned more than once. By and large, the technical picture does not change at all, and quotes continue to move to the upper line of the specified channel. Thus, a downward reversal may occur near the level of 1.1900, which may be the beginning of a new round of downward movement with the goal of 1.1700. In the long term, the absolute flat has been maintained for three months. The US currency is still not in demand among traders, however, the fall against the euro does not continue. We still expect that the previous local high near the 1.2000 level will remain the peak of the entire upward trend. However, as we have already said, any fundamental theory must be supported by technical factors and signals. There are no 100% forecasts in the foreign exchange market.

Hungarian-Polish veto. Yesterday, the media literally stirred up around the unexpected news about the blocking of the EU budget for 2021-2027 by Hungary and Poland. In addition to the seven-year budget, Hungarians and Poles blocked the 750 billion euro recovery fund after the pandemic. The reason is the EU's refusal to change the principles of allocating funds from the budget and the recovery fund. At the moment, the following rules apply: if a violation of the principles of democracy, freedom of the press and independent justice is observed in any of the EU countries, then funding from the common European "cauldron" may stop until the authorities of the violators resolve the situation. Poland and Hungary have repeatedly been suspected of violating these principles, so they may well lose payments from the EU budget. At the same time, any EU member state can veto any bill and any important decision. This was used by Hungary and Poland. Thus, negotiations will now have to start with representatives of these countries to change their decision, otherwise the budget will not be adopted, as well as the fund. And if they are not accepted, then the money will not flow to the countries. EU officials have already criticized the actions of the Polish and Hungarian authorities, calling their actions reckless and short-sighted. According to politicians, many European companies are on the verge of bankruptcy and are waiting for this money. However, this problem is small for the European Union and the euro currency. It is obvious to everyone that sooner or later the parties will agree and the budget and the fund will be adopted and ratified. It is only a matter of time and small concessions on each side. All the same, the budget for 2021-2027 and the recovery fund will have to start distributing no earlier than March next year. That is, there is still plenty of time. And it is also not profitable for Hungary and Poland to block these two bills forever, since they will also not receive a single euro from these sources. Thus, this problem is likely to be resolved in the near future. Moreover, the next EU summit will be held this Thursday. Well, the euro did not react to this news and calmly continued to rise in price.

In the United States, the main problem remains "coronavirus". The topic of elections, which has stirred the minds of all market participants in recent months, has finally faded into the background and is no longer of particular interest. By and large, the election can already be considered history, since Trump did not take any real steps to change the results of the vote. Therefore, there will be no revision of the results. Joe Biden won by a wide margin, so suing Trump doesn't make any sense. Only time will be lost. And he doesn't have much time left. However, the American President has already set out to conduct them "usefully" and escalate the trade war with China, which in recent months has been frankly put on pause. Both Washington and Beijing simply waited, waiting for who would be elected President. After all, future negotiations and future relations between the countries depended on this. Now that China has got the President it wanted, the chances of a softening of US-China relations have increased dramatically. However, Trump either really intends to run for President in 2024, or just finally wants to punish his main culprit for losing the election, where he is going to introduce a number of sanctions measures and new duties against Chinese officials and on Chinese goods. In the first case, the President can prepare a springboard for his presidency in 2024-2028, in the second - he is just going to take revenge on Beijing. But the current US President does not care about the "coronavirus". He didn't care from the start. And after losing the election, he doesn't care twice. It's a good thing that every state in America has the right to set quarantine restrictions themselves. Trump stopped commenting on COVID-2019 a few weeks ago (and maybe even months), because each of his new statements further lowered his political ratings. But Joe Biden believes the virus is still very dangerous. And this is noticeable without Biden's words. The Democrat who won the presidential race said that Donald Trump's refusal to recognize the election results and transfer power to him could lead to an increase in the number of victims from the "coronavirus". The Office of General Services, which is supposed to begin the process of transferring power, did not recognize Biden as the new President. Accordingly, the procedure has not started, and Biden does not have access to government reports that are needed to plan a strategy to combat COVID-2019 in the future. "We are talking about saving lives, this is not an exaggeration. If we don't coordinate our actions, more people may die," Biden said.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair still continues to maintain an upward trend. Traders will be able to count on a stronger growth than to the level of 1.1900 if they confidently overcome this level. In this case, the quotes leave the side channel. However, we remind traders that the side channel is not perfect and the price has briefly left it several times over the past three months. Accordingly, even overcoming its upper line does not guarantee the resumption of the upward trend.

analytics5fb4652013074.jpg

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 18 is 62 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1803 and 1.1927. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal a new round of downward correction within the framework of a continuing upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1780

S3 – 1.1719

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1902

R2 – 1.1963

R3 – 1.2024

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a new round of correction, but remains above the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to open new long positions with targets of 1.1902 and 1.1927, if the Heiken ASHI indicator turns up. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1803 and 1.1780.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com