Is it worth buying euros?

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A new week for global markets opened lower. Simultaneously with the fall of the dollar, the stock markets rushed down. To the anxiety surrounding trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, traders' reaction to the weak labor market report added, which heightened concerns about a slowdown in US GDP growth. As a result, Macroeconomic Advisers worsens the assessment of the growth of the American economy in the current quarter from 3% to 2.3% q / q, and investors have an increasing desire to lose their annoying dollar. The question arises, how to replace it?

The dollar fell out of the trend for growth, which followed from the end of September. Now, it is trading at a loss on the dollar index, as well as in the EUR / USD pair.

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As for the forecasts, this year the financial markets stubbornly insisted that the US currency will feel weak, the assets of emerging markets will come to life, and trade wars will have little effect on the exchange rate on Forex.

In February, DWS expected to see EUR / USD at 1.15 at a consensus rating of 1.23 in the perspective of 12 months. Now, it is projected that by the end of next year, the euro will trade at the same level of $ 1.15. The US economy will not show such optimistic growth as this year, and the Federal Reserve will slow down with a tightening of the policy, this is not to argue. However, the mass of political risks combined with sluggish economic growth will significantly complicate the way the euro goes up.

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Obviously, traders want to buy euros, but very scary, because if the British parliamentarians vote against the treaty with the EU presented by Theresa May, the pound will go to the bottom, taking with them European currencies. In addition, the European "bulls" will have difficulty with the possible strengthening of the "pigeon" rhetoric of the ECB at the December meeting and announcing the extension of QE or the launch of LTRO. Fans of the euro also put on the acceleration of the average wage in the region to 2.5% in the third quarter. If expectations are met, then the chance of an increase in the rate of inflation and the start of normalization of the monetary policy of the ECB will increase.

Market participants are now thinking too much about the changed behavior of the US Central Bank, which at the beginning of October convincingly spoke of three rate increases in 2019, and now it is actively slowing down. The reason for the pressure from the White House? Unlikely. Most likely, the regulator is not sure about the location of the neutral rate, so it will act extremely cautiously. It is also worth noting that the tightening of financial conditions and the reluctance of inflation to move away from the 2% goal make the FOMC hawk positions precarious.

In the near future, judging by the whole dollar is waiting for a period of consolidation, rather than a full reduction. A similar situation was from January to April and from May to September. Then the markets were waiting for signals from economic indicators and the reaction of the Central Bank to them.

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Brexit: Theresa May is trying to disrupt the Brexit vote

Traders and investors began to quickly get rid of the British pound, even though the data released on the UK economy did not differ much from the expectations of economists.

It is all due to the fact that the British Prime Minister Theresa May convened an emergency meeting of the government. Immediately rumors spread that May may withdraw the vote on the Brexit agreement, which is scheduled for tomorrow. This will be done in order to prevent defeat as a result of this vote. Losing this issue is likely to put an end to her future political career, which will force May to resign.

Let me remind you that today the 4th day is coming to an end when the European Agreement on Brexit is being discussed in the British Parliament, and tomorrow, December 11, a vote will be held on it.

The data that came out on the economy did not hurt the pound much, although it indicated a slowdown in GDP growth.

According to the report, the UK economy in October this year grew by only 0.1% compared with the previous month and compared with October last year, by 1.5%. The data fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.

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The trade deficit in October rose to 11.9 billion pounds, while the September deficit was revised upwards to 10.7 billion pounds. All these data indicate a slowdown in the growth of the British economy amid Brexit-related political uncertainties.

According to the report, industrial production in October fell by 0.6% compared with September, while economists expected it to decline only by 0.2%. Production in the UK manufacturing industry also declined in October amid weak demand for cars.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, in October 2018, production in the country's manufacturing industry decreased by 0.9% compared with October.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD currency pair, the worse news related to Brexit will be, the faster the large levels of support will break through. At the moment, the pound is holding a further area of 1.2650 from further falling, a breakthrough of which will lead to a further sale with the updating of monthly minimums in the areas of 1.2610 and 1.2530. Buyers urgently need a return on resistance of 1.2700, on which it will depend on whether the pound will remain in the side channel or continue its further decline along the trend.

The euro fell slightly after the update of the next highs against the background of a weak report, which showed that the positive balance of foreign trade in Germany in October of this year was reduced due to a sharp increase in imports, observed since September of this year.

According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, the current account surplus of the balance of payments fell to 17.3 billion euros in October against 17.7 billion euros in September. Economists had expected a surplus in October of 18.1 billion euros. Meanwhile, exports of goods in October increased by only 0.7% compared with the previous month, while imports increased immediately by 1.3%.

Despite this, as noted in the statistics bureau, domestic demand will continue to support the largest economy in Europe.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, only a break of 1.1450 resistance will lead to a new wave of strengthening risky assets, with the renewal of weekly highs around 1.1480 and 1.1410. In the case of a downward correction, the lower limit of the new ascending channel is viewed within the support ranges of 1.1380 and 1.1360.

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Moment of truth for the pound

The non-saturated economic calendar makes the British pound the most interesting currency of the week by December 14th. Of course, statistics on the labor market of Foggy Albion is important, but voting in parliament on the agreement with the EU proposed by Theresa May is more important. How many pieces will sterling lose if parliamentarians vote against? In June 2016, on the day of the referendum on EU membership of the country, the GBP / USD pair slipped from 1.5 to 1.32. In January 2015, when the Swiss National Bank was stunned by the financial markets with a decision to drop the floor at 1.2 under EUR / CHF, the USD / CHF pair collapsed from 1.02 to 0.83. What happens once may never happen again, but what happens twice will surely happen a third time. Do traders have the right to wait for crazy moves?

If a few weeks ago, Bloomberg experts, issuing a forecast of a pound falling to $ 1.2 and below in the case of a document rejected by parliamentarians, spoke of disorderly Brexit and political chaos (the most bearish estimates suggested a drop of GBP / USD to 1.1), by December the situation had changed. The European Court stated that London could unilaterally cancel article 50, because of which all the fuss began. Simply put, the absence of a treaty with the EU is not a catastrophe, in this situation, there is the possibility of abandoning the so-called divorce. With or without a second referendum. In my opinion, only the approval of the Theresa May project can reduce uncertainty and volatility, which will provide the sterling a springboard for growth in the direction of $ 1.35. In other hands, it will continue to be under pressure.

Pound Volatility Dynamics

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There is a possibility that a slight loss of the prime minister in parliament will give her the opportunity to re-vote. According to Barclays, CIB, BlackRock, UBS and Mizuho Bank, if Theresa May gets 270-300 votes out of 320, the pound will remain stable and you can think about buying it in the near future.

Politics takes economic events to the background. On the same day, when British lawmakers decide on Brexit, statistics on the labor market of Albion will be released. Judging by the increase in unemployment from 4% to 4.1%, the increase in the number of applications for benefits and the employment reduction expected by Bloomberg experts, the situation is starting to worsen. It would be strange if it were otherwise because, on the background of a divorce from the EU, foreign workers leave the labor market. On the other hand, leaving low-paid employees leads to an acceleration of wages for the British. Good news for the economy, because extra money can be spent on consumption, and not very good for the Bank of England. The average wage is a leading indicator of inflation. Overclocking the latter will cause BoE to raise the repo rate.

Technically, the inability of the "bulls" on GBP / USD to return the quotes of the pair within the triangle indicates their weakness. A break of support at 1.265 will increase the risks of continuing to a peak in the direction of the target by 161.8% on the AB = CD pattern.

GBP / USD, the daily graph

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BITCOIN Analysis for December 10, 2018

Bitcoin has been trading with the bearish momentum which lead the price below $3,500 area with a daily close. The price has recently formed a Bullish Divergence in the process which pushed the price a bit higher. As a result, the price bounced back above $3,500 area, which is expected to be held by the Tenkan line and 20 EMA as resistance. However, amid the overall bearish momentum, the price is expected to sink lower towards $3,000 despite the recent bullish pressure, which may trigger some upward correction and volatility along the way. As the price remains below $4,000 area with a daily close, the impulsive bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 2,500, 2,850, 3,000

RESISTANCE: 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: PARTIAL VOLATILE and CORRECTIVE

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 10. The market is waiting

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Demand for the euro remains, however, it is necessary to get back to the resistance level of 1.1434 to continue the upward trend, which will lead to a further wave of growth with a test of highs around 1.1471 and 1.1498, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a decline in the euro in the second half of the day, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown from a low of 1.1398 or to a rebound from a larger support of 1.1366, where you can build the lower limit of the upward channel.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

An unsuccessful fixation above the resistance of 1.1434 in the second half of the day will be a signal to sell the euro with the main goal of a breakdown and consolidation below the support of 1.1398, which will lead to a larger sale with a test of 1.1366 minimum, where I recommend to take profits. Important fundamental statistics are not expected to be released in the afternoon. Thus, if the euro rises above resistance 1.1434, short positions can return to the rebound from a maximum of 1.1471.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates continued growth of the euro.

Bollinger bands

The upward trend may be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1445, from where you can see sales of the euro immediately on the rebound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on December 10. Brexit is likely to fail

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The pound fell and failed to get out above the resistance of 1.2751. News that British Prime Minister Theresa May may withdraw a vote on the Brexit agreement, scheduled for Tuesday, has led to a quick sale. At the moment, it is best to count on long positions after updating the lows around 1.2615 and 1.2569. The main task for the second half of the day will be the return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2702, which will stop the current downward trend.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The morning sell signal, to which I paid attention in my review, worked itself out and the downward trend continued. At the moment, a breakthrough and consolidation below the support of 1.2657 will lead to a further sale of GBP / USD with a minimum at 1.2615 and 1.2569, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of an upward correction in the area of resistance 1.2702, you can watch short positions on that level immediately on the rebound of the pound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a continued decline in the pound.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility decreased. There are no market entry signals.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 10, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is needed to enhance a further bullish advance towards 1.1520 and 1.1610.

On the other hand, if early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes, a quick decline should be expected towards 1.1150-1.1100.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 10, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

Last week, two unsuccessful bearish breakout attempts were demonstrated below 1.2720.

Bullish persistence above 1.2780 (78.6% Fibo level) was needed to enhance the bullish side of the market.

The current scenario could pursue as a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to a prominent daily low) is maintained on a daily basis.

Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is located around 1.2300. Initial bearish destination is located around 1.2580.

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In 2019, the dollar seems to have more reasons to strengthen than to weaken

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Many leading banks expect the dollar to weaken in 2019. Against this background, the bullish mood on the US currency of one of the largest financial institutions in Sweden, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB), looks somewhat isolated.

"We believe that next year, the number of positive factors for the dollar will outweigh the number of negative factors, which will support the American currency," said SEB representatives.

"The relative difference in interest rates in the United States and the rest of the world is unlikely to increase in favor of America. However, there is no reason to believe that this difference will begin to move in the opposite direction unfavorable to the dollar. In addition, the growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves slowed down, which usually occurs along with the strengthening of the dollar. It is assumed that in 2019 this trend will continue," they added.

"Moreover, it is unlikely that the scenario of favorable economic growth in the eurozone next year will become dominant. Therefore, the demand for the US currency as a defensive asset will continue," the experts said.

It is expected that in 2019, the ECB will re-launch the printing press, despite the collapse of the quantitative easing program.

"In the foreseeable future, the regulator will not go on a rate increase, but it is quite possible to hold new auctions for free money," analysts say.

According to the SEB forecast, the EUR / USD pair will gradually decline and will reach 1.10 by the end of the second quarter of 2019.

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Fitch: Oil prices will remain at $ 60- $ 70 per barrel

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According to the calculations of the leading rating agency Fitch, at the moment, the price of black gold demonstrates stability. Experts expect that they will remain at around $ 60 - $ 70 per barrel amid a reduction in oil production by OPEC +.

Analysts remind that US shale oil production is showing steady growth, so next year the global market is not facing a shortage of raw materials. Economists believe that the current level of oil prices will satisfy the majority of market participants, both producers, and consumers of black gold. At the same time, a number of factors are under question, for example, the stability of oil production in countries such as Nigeria, Libya, and Venezuela. The possibility of a recession in the US is also not worth discounting, analysts remind. These factors may adversely affect the global oil market, experts believe.

Recall that following the meeting of the heads of state participating in the OPEC + deal, it was decided to reduce the level of oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day for all countries in total. The deal will last six months, starting in January 2019. 800 thousand barrels, or 2.5% of the oil production reduction, will be accounted for representatives of the cartel of this amount, and 400 thousand barrels, for non-OPEC countries.

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Markets are waiting for the completion of the growth cycle rates of the US Federal Reserve

The US labor market report for November came out strong enough to dispel the pessimistic expectations of a slowdown in the US economy, but the market reaction was rather modest.

The number of new jobs was 155 thousand against the forecast of 200 thousand, and this is the weakest part of the report, besides, the data for the two previous months were revised downward by 12 thousand. At the same time, the average annual wage growth did not change and amounted to 3.1%, which in general is quite enough to expect a quite moderate Fed reaction, signals that labor market growth is slowing are too weak to suggest a halt in interest rates.

However, the market thinks very differently. The probability of a rate hike at the meeting on December 19 is, according to the CME futures market, only 71.5%, and quite recently the eye surely exceeded 90%. Moreover, the probability of two increases until the end of 2019, only 46.8%, that is, the market assumes that the current cycle of rate increases will end after reaching a range of 2.25% -2.50%.

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This means no less than a tectonic change in expectations regarding both the Fed's plans and the prospects for the US economy as a whole. The Fed, according to the market, is close to declaring the level neutral at a rate of 2.5%, not 3.0%, as was assumed quite recently.

The change in expectations explains the steady decline in stock markets and the strong growth in demand for bonds and gold. The dollar trend is turning to the south even before the debate on the national debt in the US Congress, and the easing of the political and economic components in the eurozone, the UK government crisis and the slowdown in Japan can stop this weakening, all three components should start changing simultaneously. Such changes will mean the arrival of a new wave of crisis, more destructive than in 2008, and, apparently, the case is moving in the indicated direction.

Eurozone

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2018 slowed to 1.6% y / y, the lowest level since Q2. 2014, data revision was an unpleasant surprise for the market. Weaker data increases the likelihood that the ECB will look for ways to soften the announcement of the completion of the asset repurchase program.

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There is also growing confidence that the ECB will revise the outlook for the growth of the eurozone downward, plus the announcement of the launch of the permanent LTRO program with a floating rate, which will allow the ECB to act more flexibly during reinvestment, is possible.

In any case, the ECB will try to prevent a sharp rise in the euro, but the expectations are still positive. Today, the currency pair EUR / USD is facing north, resistances are 1.1340 and 1.1500.

Great Britain

The likelihood that the UK will not be able to hold an agreement on Brexit through parliament has increased. In this case, the May government is waiting for resignation, and the pound will remain under increasing pressure. Today, GBP / USD is neutral, trading in a narrow range of 1.2660 / 2810 with a tendency to decline to the lower limit of the range.

Oil and Ruble

OPEC + agreed to reduce oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2019. This is less than the previous reduction of 1.8 million, primarily because Iran under sanctions has been bracketed and will not cut production.

Futures for Brent found support above $ 62 per barrel, which is completely satisfied with the majority of market participants. At the same time, the measures taken may not be sufficient to resume growth, firstly, because of the relatively small volume of production cuts, and secondly, because of fears of a slowdown in the global economy. Nevertheless, corrective growth to 68.50 / 69.00 is quite possible if the panic moods dominating in the markets subside somewhat.

The currency pair USD / RUB is trading just above 66 rubles/dollars, stability is a response to both the positive outcome of the OPEC meeting and the loss of EU unity regarding the possibility of introducing new restrictive measures against Russia, as it becomes increasingly difficult to legitimize the absurd "sanctions" regime.

The ruble may somewhat strengthen in the current week to 64.50 / 65.00, RUB /

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EUR / USD: Euro demand may persist due to weak US labor market

The employment data released on Friday showed a slowdown in hiring in the US, which put pressure on the US dollar, which resumed its downtrend against the euro and other risky assets against the background of a not bright prospect of a slowdown in interest rates, which have been pretty much-traded conversations.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, hiring growth in the US slowed down in November, but wage growth continues to amaze with its performance.

Thus, the number of non-agricultural jobs in November of this year grew by only 155,000, while a number of economists expected an increase in the number of jobs by 198,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, which fully coincided with the expectations of economists.

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As I noted above, the annual salary increase was 3.1%, as was the case a month earlier, which is the best indicator since 2009. Data for October has been revised. Thus, the number of jobs in October increased by 237,000.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, wholesale companies in October this year replenished their stocks at a higher rate. Thus, the growth of inventories in the wholesale trade was 0.8% compared with the previous month, exceeding the forecast of economists, who expected a growth of 0.7%. In September, inventories increased by 0.7%.

Consumer estimates for the US economy have led to pressure on the US dollar. Even in spite of the fact that the situation remains favorable, the growth has stopped, which may negatively affect the economic situation in the future. Strong employment growth was the main driver for positive consumer ratings.

According to the University of Michigan report, the preliminary consumer sentiment index in December 2018 was 97.5 points against the final November value of 97.5 points. Economists had expected a preliminary index of 97.0 points.

The speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard also had a negative impact on the US dollar. Bullard believes that the Fed should not raise interest rates, and only as the economic outlook evolves, it is necessary to make adjustments to the policy course.

His representative for the role of Fed representative Brainard also said that gradual rate increases are still relevant only in the short term, hinting at a planned rate increase in December of this year, but the rate is increasingly dependent on the evolution of economic prospects.

Brainard also noted that there are both upward and downward risks to the prospects for the economy.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the breakthrough of resistance of 1.1450 will lead to a new wave of strengthening risky assets, with the renewal of weekly highs around 1.1480 and 1.1410. In the case of a downward correction, the lower limit of the new ascending channel is viewed within the support ranges of 1.1380 and 1.1360.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 10. European Court decision and Brexit vote

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading session on December 7, the GBP / USD currency pair fell by 55 basis points. Wave counting now looks too confusing due to a large number of Brexit-related questions that need to be answered. Theoretically, the entire trend section, taking its beginning on November 7, looks like a non-standard 5-wave structure. However, even the internal structure of wave 5 looks extremely difficult. Thus, I recommend to monitor developments in the next two days, and there should be a lot of events.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2935 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

1.2566 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to build a downward wave and, presumably, its internal wave 5. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the mark of 1.2695, which corresponds to 100.0% of Fibonacci, indicates the pair is ready to build an upward wave. Today and tomorrow, a great amount of important information may come from the UK and on the subject of Brexit, so the wave pattern may require adjustments, and I recommend waiting for clarification of the situation.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 10. The euro is growing, but can go above 1.15?

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Thursday, the EUR / USD currency pair gained about 20 basis points, which allows us to conclude that the proposed wave C is being built as part of the corrective set of waves. Thus, the increase in quotations can continue with targets located near the Fibonacci levels of 100.0% and 127.2%. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 100.0% may lead to a departure of quotes from the reached maximums and the completion of the construction of wave C.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1471 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to be in the framework of building an upward set of waves. Thus, today I expect an increase with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1471 and 1.1528. Tomorrow, the British Parliament will vote on the Brexit project, and its results may affect the wave picture of the EUR / USD pair. Therefore, the fact that the wave marking may require the introduction of clarification, you must be ready.

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Weekly review for the currency pair GBP / USD from December 10 to 15, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.2881, 13 average EMA (yellow thin line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

Conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle (Monday - work up) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday - work up).

The first upper target is 1.2881–13 average EMA (yellow thin line).

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GBP / USD. December 10th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pound hid in anticipation of important information

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 0.6388

The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, December 10, frankly lurking. In recent days, the pound sterling has ceased to decline against the dollar, but it is also impossible to start an uptrend. Based on this, we conclude that traders are waiting, they are waiting for the most important event of the year for the UK, a vote on Brexit in parliament. A rally in support of Brexit was held in London this weekend, Theresa May threatened to leave the EU without any "deal", and some ministers and parliamentarians began preparations for a second referendum. Today, we will know the decision of the European Court regarding Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. According to preliminary information, the UK may well withdraw its desire to leave the EU unilaterally. Thus, on the eve of tomorrow's voting, there are several possible scenarios for the future: 1) the adoption of the Theresa May's plan, 2) the rejection of the Theresa May's plan, 3) postponing the vote in parliament to a later date, 4) the country's refusal to leave the EU. In such circumstances, it is impossible to predict the direction of the pair in the coming days. And technical factors will fade into the background. Also today in the UK, a report on GDP for October will be published, but it is likely to be ignored by market participants. It is a very important moment for the pound sterling, and traders must be ready for any movements in the market.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2726

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2665

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2756

R2 - 1.2787

R3 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to be located below the moving average line. Therefore, sell-positions with targets at 1.2726 and 1.2695 are now formally relevant. However, we remind that in the coming days, the volatility of a pound can increase greatly, and the pair can dramatically change the direction of movement.

Purchase orders, again formally, will become relevant if the pair overcomes the MA. However, in the next few days, the tool can be thrown from side to side, and all this is accompanied by increased volatility.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. December 10th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". American and European statistics synchronously failed

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 179.2206

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, December 10, continues a rather strong upward movement, which began on Friday. On the last trading day of last week for the US dollar, everything could have ended more safely if traders paid attention to the report on GDP in the eurozone, which turned out to be 0.1% weaker than the forecast value and the previous value in the third quarter. However, in the afternoon, American macroeconomic statistics also fell through. The most disappointing is the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector - 155,000 (the forecast is 200,000, the previous value is 255,000). It was this report that most influenced the desire of traders to sell the US dollar. Reports on the unemployment rate and the change in the average hourly wage were fully in line with forecasts and therefore had an indirect impact on the course of trading. However, the latest strengthening of the European currency over the past week gives hope to traders that the downtrend may finally be completed. Of course, we would not be in a hurry with such conclusions, especially on the eve of the announcement of the results of the European Court on Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (today) and the vote on Brexit in the UK Parliament (tomorrow).

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1414

S2 - 1.1353

S3 - 1.1292

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1.1536

R3 - 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move up. Thus, now remain relevant long positions with a target of 1.1475. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal a manual reduction of long positions.

It is recommended to open sell orders if traders overcome a moving average line and Murray's level of "2/8". In this case, the pair may return to the formation of a downtrend.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of USD / JPY for December 10

Large-scale graphics:

In the framework of the rising TF wave dominating from March in recent months, the price forms a counter-correction. The wave has an irregular appearance, forming a shifting plane.

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Medium scale graphics:

The wave is descending, starting from October 4th. Despite reaching the upper part of the large-scale support zone, the final part (C) remains incomplete in the wave structure.

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Small-scale graphics:

The bearish wave zigzag from November 12 reached a preliminary calculated area of a potential reversal, but the wave structure does not show completeness.

Forecast and recommendations:

The price of the pair went into the framework of a wide area of a potential reversal, making selling the pair very risky. It is recommended to wait for the completion of the entire current wave and monitor the signals for entering long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 114.20 / 114.70

Support areas:

- 111.70 / 111.20

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 10

Large-scale graphics:

The rising segment of the chart, which began in mid-August, corrects the previous segment of the daily trend. The structure of the wave lacks the final part (C).

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Medium scale graphics:

Beginning on November 12, the price growth completes a larger wave model. The most likely zone of completion is within the nearest zone of the potential reversal of a large TF.

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Small-scale graphics:

From November 28, the price moves upwards, completing the time scale wave structure.

Forecast and recommendations:

Given the corrective nature of the current boom, purchases are risky. It is recommended to refrain from trade transactions, until the completion of the entire wave. Signs of subsequent reversal will be promising for trading.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1320 / 1.1270

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Yellow metal went up to a five-month high

Experts record the active growth in demand for gold as a safe asset. Over the past five months, its value has reached record levels.

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The rise in the price of the precious metal also contributed to not so good statistics on the American labor market over the past month. According to a report by the US Department of Labor in November 2018, a recorded of 155 thousand jobs were organized in the country, which is much less than the average forecast of 200 thousand. At the same time, the October figures were revised down from 250 thousand to 237 thousand. The unemployment rate in the United States has not exceeded 3.7%, which is the lowest value since 1968.

The publication of this news has caused a significant increase in demand for the so-called "risky" assets, which include stocks and bonds. Experts believe that weak labor market statistics may force the Fed to soften its position. The increase in the number of new jobs and wages was lower than expected, which caused disappointment to market participants. The futures market began to take into account the slower rate of increase in interest rates in the US, analysts say.

On Monday, December 10, the price of gold rose to the level of $ 1,251 per 1 ounce, which is the highest figure since July 11, 2018. The precious metal is rising in price against the backdrop of negative dynamics of Asian stock markets and lower prices for US stock index futures. Investors fear a rise in tensions in trade relations between America and China, which forms an increased demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold.

Note that investors in the yellow metal do not receive dividends (as owners of shares) or coupon payments (as holders of bonds). Therefore, the precious metal is under pressure when interest rates rise and on the contrary, receive support when they fall.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for December 10. Euro shows readiness for more serious growth

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair performed only a slight drop after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. After that, the growth process was resumed and the closing above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423 was completed. As a result, on December 10, the growth of quotations of the pair can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the American currency and some falling in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the growth of quotations also continues in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Bearing divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator. The education will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a return to the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Reversal of quotes from the correction level of 100.0% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the fall of the pair. Fixing quotes above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of a further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 76.4%, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.1423.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold with a target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1423 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for December 10th. The pound is not holding back from the new fall

4h

analytics5c0e07312769a.png

The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart performed a rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2812, also a bearish divergence formed in the CCI indicator. As a result, on December 10, the process of falling quotations continues in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. New emerging divergences are not observed today. The rebound of the course from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. Fixing quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.2491.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

On the hourly chart, the pair made a fall to the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.2696 and made a turn in favor of the pound sterling with the beginning of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2809. However, on the current chart, a bearish divergence is on the CCI indicator. If it is formed, the pair can resume falling in the direction of the correction level of 100.0%. Fixing quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of the pair to continue falling towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.2567.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair with a target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order over the divergence peak if this divergence is generated by the CCI indicator (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 10

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the subsequent targets for the top were determined from the local upward structure on December 5. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price is in equilibrium, a downward structure from December 4 and the formation of potential for the top of December 5. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we are following the formation of the downward structure of December 5 and the development of the impulse is expected after the breakdown of 0.9863. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 28 and we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 112.35. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is in deep correction from the downward structure and the level of 128.70 is the key support. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the subsequent targets for the downward movement were determined from the local downward structure on December 5.

Forecast for December 10:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1512, 1.1487, 1.1434, 1.1414, 1.1386, 1.1370 and 1.1348. Here, we determined the subsequent targets for the top from the local ascending structure on December 5th. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1414 - 1.1434 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1487. The potential value for the ascending structure is considered the level of 1.1512, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1386 - 1.1370 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. In this case, the goal is 1.1348 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have to move to the first potential target of 1.1310.

The main trend is a local rising structure from December 5th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1414 Take profit: 1.1432

Buy 1.1436 Take profit: 1.1485

Sell: 1.1386 Take profit: 1.1371

Sell: 1.1368 Take profit: 1.1350

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2947, 1.2903, 1.2873, 1.2827, 1.2792, 1.2758, 1.2699, 1.2664, 1.2623 and 1.2600. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. A local descending structure of December 4, as well as the potential for the top of December 5. The breakdown of the level of 1.2699 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 1.2664 and consolidation is near this level. Its breakdown will lead to a pronounced movement to the level of 1.2623. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2600, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2758. Here, the first target is 1.2792 and in the range of 1.2792 - 1.2827 is the short-term upward movement. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2873 and in the range of 1.2873 - 1.2903 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.2947, from this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2758 Take profit: 1.2790

Buy: 1.2793 Take profit: 1.2825

Sell: 1.2699 Take profit: 1.2666

Sell: 1.2662 Take profit: 1.2625

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9979, 0.9954, 0.9941, 0.9897, 0.9878, 0.9863 and 0.9823. Here, we are following the formation of the downward structure of December 5th. The breakdown of the level of 0.9897 will lead to the formation of pronounced initial conditions. In this case, the goal is 0.9878. The price pass of the range of 0.9878 - 0.9863 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9823.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9941 - 0.9954 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9979 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of December 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9955 Take profit: 0.9975

Buy: 0.9980 Take profit: 1.0005

Sell: 0.9895 Take profit: 0.9878

Sell: 0.9862 Take profit: 0.9825

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.41, 113.15, 112.95, 112.57, 112.35, 112.04 and 111.87. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 28. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 112.57 - 112.35 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 112.04. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 111.87, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 112.95 - 113.15 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 113.41.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.95 Take profit: 113.15

Buy: 113.17 Take profit: 113.40

Sell: 112.55 Take profit: 113.35

Sell: 112.33 Take profit: 112.05

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3506, 1.3478, 1.3429, 1.3393, 1.3357, 1.3285, 1.3247 and 1.3160. Here, the price is in deep correction from the downward structure on December 4th. The range of 1.3285 - 1.3247 is the key support for the top and we expect a short-term downward movement. The breakdown of the level of 1.3245 will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is the level of 1.3160.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3357 - 1.3393 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the movement to 1.3429, this level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward cycle from December 4. Its breakdown should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to 1.3478 and in the range of 1.3478 - 1.3506 is the consolidation.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of December 4, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3357 Take profit: 1.3390

Buy: 1.3394 Take profit: 1.3427

Sell: 1.3285 Take profit: 1.3250

Sell: 1.3245 Take profit: 1.3195

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7290, 0.7257, 0.7237, 0.7196, 0.7166, 0.7127 and 0.7100. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of December 4th. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7196 - 0.7166 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7127. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.7100, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 0.7237 - 0.7257 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7290 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of December 4.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7237 Take profit: 0.7255

Buy: 0.7258 Take profit: 0.7290

Sell: 0.7196 Take profit: 0.7166

Sell: 0.7164 Take profit: 0.7130

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 128.70, 128.36, 127.98, 127.68, 127.43, 127.08 and 126.88. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure of November 29. At the moment, the price is in deep correction from this structure. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 127.98. Here, the first target is 127.68. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 127.68 - 127.43 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 127.08. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.88, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 128.36 - 128.70 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the goal is 129.29.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 29, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.38 Take profit: 128.70

Buy: 128.80 Take profit: 129.20

Sell: 127.96 Take profit: 127.74

Sell: 127.66 Take profit: 127.47

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, key levels on the H1 scale are: 143.88, 143.57, 143.34, 142.74, 142.24 and 141.90. Here, the subsequent targets for the downward movement, we determined from the local structure on December 5th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 142.74. Here, the target is 142.24. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.90, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 143.34 - 143.57 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth movement. Here, the target is 143.88 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of December 5th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.34 Take profit: 143.55

Buy: 143.60 Take profit: 143.86

Sell: 142.72 Take profit: 142.26

Sell: 142.20 Take profit: 141.90

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for December 10, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found that price failed to test lower Keltner band, which is another sign of potential strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $3.569 and at the price of $3.667.

Support/Resistance

$3.569– Intraday resistance

$3.407– Intraday support

$3.569 – Objective target 1

$3.667 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for December 10, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2690. According to the M15 time – frame, I found that there is trading below the daily pivot (1.2743) and below the Ichimoku cloud, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that there is a double bottom pattern on the point and figure chart, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2663 and at the price of 1.2620.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for December 10, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1442. Anyway, according to the M15 time – frame, I found that there is a fake breakout of Friday's high at the price of 1.1424, which is a sign of weakness. I also found that price made a bearish break of the Ichimoku cloud, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1360 and the price of 1.1322.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 10, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair dropped from the level of 1.2890 towards 1.2780. Now, the price is set at 1.2850. On the H4 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2890 and 1.3001. Volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.2829 and 1.2725 in coming hours. In the short term, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2725 to form a bullish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.2829, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2829. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.2725 towards 1.2829 and 1.2890 as targets. In the H4 time frame: However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2890, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2890. So, the market will decline further to 1.2725 in order to return to the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2640.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 10, 2018

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Overview:

Last week, the NZD/USD pair broke resistance which turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.6705, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. Trump's advisor dropped the dollar

Dollar bulls are going through hard times: rumors of a slowdown in the Fed's interest rate increase are increasing like a snowball. And recently, not only the Fed's actions next year have been questioned, but also the December rate hike, although the likelihood of this step is already in many ways embedded in current prices. Such an unexpected turn of events puts pressure on the US currency, especially against the background of a possible trade truce between the United States and China.

It is not surprising that the euro- dollar pair started the trading week not from the usual sluggish flat. Despite Friday's pullback, the price has broken through the boundaries of the 14th figure and is trying to rise to the nearest resistance level - 1.1450 (the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). Morning fluctuations in the dollar index indicate traders' nervousness: the indicator showed impulsive movements and "dived" to the level of 95.86, whereas last week it was around 97 points. This market behavior suggests that traders are seriously concerned about the fundamental background of the US dollar.

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The "black band" for the American currency began with the "dovish" comments of the deputy head of the Fed Richard Clarida, who in November announced that the interest rate was "close to its neutral level". Later, this thesis was repeated by Jerome Powell, however, in a rather veiled interpretation (therefore, there were disputes in the market about whether traders understood his message correctly) - he said that the rate was "slightly lower" than the range that can be considered neutral. And although this range is quite wide (from 2.5% to 3.5%), Powell's similar rhetoric leveled his own intentions to exceed the neutral level - he spoke about this literally at the beginning of autumn.

In other words, members of the regulator began to actively hint that in the foreseeable future, the Fed will put the process of tightening monetary policy "on hold". Such prospects exerted background pressure on the dollar and only indirectly influenced the dynamics of the currency. However, when the market began to voice doubts about the rate hike in December and March, the situation took a completely different turn.

This weekend, an interview was published in the American press by Larry Cudlow, who since spring this year has been the economic advisor to the US president. To the surprise of many experts, he said that the Fed may soon take a waiting position in the process of tightening monetary policy - literally after the December increase. Moreover, he admitted the likelihood that Fed members would not raise rates at the December meeting in order to assess the dynamics of key economic indicators. In his opinion, members of the regulator are concerned about the weakening of the growth rates of the main inflation indicators, given the recent releases.

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Thus, core inflation, excluding the prices of food and energy, in annual terms really decreased slightly - to 2.1%. In the previous month, experts also expected Core CPI growth, but the figure remained at the same level, demonstrating stagnation. Also, other inflationary indicators are extremely disappointing : the basic price index of personal consumption expenditures, the labor cost index, the growth rate of average hourly wages — all these figures were worse than expected, confirming a weak inflation rate in the country. Fed members may be alerted not by the current values of the above indicators, but by the trend itself, which is clearly negative. In the appendage to everything.

Last week, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell could dispel these doubts (or confirm them). However, his planned speech in Congress was canceled due to the declaration of national mourning. Now the Fed members must abide by the so-called "silence regime" in anticipation of the last meeting this year, which will be held December 18-19. Therefore, traders remained in a certain ignorance, and the comments of the representative of the White House only heightened their experiences regarding the future prospects of monetary policy. The probability of a December increase is still quite high - 74%, while the March prospects look different: the market lays only 20% of the probability that the regulator will increase the rate from 2.5% to 2.75%.

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All this suggests that the euro-dollar has untapped potential for further corrective growth. As I said above, the first target of the bulls eur / usd is the mark 1.1450 (the top line of the Bollinger Bands on D1). If the price consolidates above this level, the next target of the northern movement will be the mark of 1.1560 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe). However, the achievement of this target will depend on the dynamics of growth of key indicators of US inflation in November: the release is scheduled for this Wednesday, December 12.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Until mid 2020, the rates of the Central Bank of Australia will be record low

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It appears that the Central Bank of Australia will keep interest rates at the current level, at least until mid- 2020, the recent series of weak economic data eliminated any likelihood of an earlier rate hike.

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Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates at a record low of 1.50 percent, for 28 consecutive months, and was an expected step. Most experts already expected a rise not earlier than mid-2020, but disappointing GDP data in the third quarter and low retail sales in October forced the market to completely eliminate the possibility of a rate hike even in 2020. Only a few analysts who took part in the survey predict at least one campaign in March 2020. Earlier, the assistant to the head of the RBA, Chris Kent, reiterated that the next step to raise rates is likely to be economic growth amid expectations of a gradual increase in inflation, but if necessary, a reduction is possible, Kent added.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for December 10, 2018 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the upward movement to 1.2774 - 13 is the average EMA (yellow thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the upward movement to 1.2774 - 13 is the average EMA (yellow thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 10.12.2018

Trading plan 10.12.2018

Overall picture: the pound is in the spotlight.

On Tuesday, December 11, the markets are waiting for a decisive vote in the British Parliament on the EU-British agreement on Brexit terms.

The agreement has already been signed by the EU and British Prime Minister Theresa May - but must be approved by Parliament. At the same time, the opposition to the agreement in Parliament is very strong - and not the fact that the agreement will be approved.

In case of failure of the agreement - the resignation of the May government is very likely - and new elections are quite likely - and possibly a new Brexit referendum.

The failure of the agreement will cause a strong blow to the British economy - and the pound.

Another option is to postpone the vote, but this could worsen the situation for Prime Minister May.

In addition, on Thursday - an important decision of the ECB on monetary policy: will it be said about the ECB rate hike?

Pound:

We are ready to buy from 1.2820.

We are ready to sell from 1.1650.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com