BITCOIN Analysis for July 26, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with minor price dips recently which led the price to reside below $8,000 with a daily close yesterday. Indeed, it comes as no surprise as the impulsive non-volatile momentum is obviously to be followed by certain pullbacks towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA before pushing higher with a target towards $10,000 in the future. Though the price is currently quite indecisive, the dynamic level of 20 EMA is still a bit far from the current price scenario. So, certain correction is expected in this case. As the price remains above $6,500 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 6500

RESISTANCE: 8000, 10000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE AND VOLATILE

analytics5b5b3480e66a4.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR / USD as of July 27, 2018

EUR / USD

On Thursday, as expected by most market participants, the ECB retained absolute neutrality regarding monetary policy. Mario Draghi confirmed that the rate will not change until the end of next summer. Against this background, the slightly worse than expected data on orders for durable goods in the US in June were taken by investors optimistically. Durable Goods Orders showed an increase of 1.0% against expectations of 3.0%, Core Indicator Core Durable Goods Orders showed an increase of 0.4% against expectations of 0.5%.

analytics5b5aa99d943d0.png

The price on the chart of the daily scale went under the balance priceline (red), and the signal line of the oscillator Marlin quickly moved to the zero line, reporting the launch of a downward trend. Since the Krusenstern trend line has fallen over the past day, the support for the price was level 1.1607. After its overcoming in full measure, the scenario for the medium-term reduction of the euro will be launched. The nearest target is the range 1.1475-1.1508.

analytics5b5aa9ae77c45.png

On the four-hour chart, the downward trend is completely formed. The price was fixed under all indicator lines, the oscillator Marlin also indicates the development of bearish sentiment.

Today, the main event will be the publication of US GDP for the 2nd quarter (13:30 BST). The forecast is very good - 3.8% -4.2%. We are looking forward to a good development for the dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5b11091740e.png

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again. This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market.

Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart. The bulls are failing to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820.

Bullish fixation above 0.6820 should be maintained in order to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6900 and 0.6980.

Trade Recommendations:

The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry.

Bullish persistence above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900 then probably 0.6980.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5b10ff15ba6.png

Daily OutlookIn April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why, a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where another episode of bearish pressure was initiated this week.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the consolidation range of 1.1750-1.1520 until breakout occurs in either direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session of EUR / USD pair on July 27

To open long positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

There is no demand for the major euro pair at 1.1630, which indicates the possible formation of a downtrend. It is best to consider buying the pair in the afternoon after returning to the resistance level of 1.1630 for the purpose of recovery in the area of 1.1655. In the event of a further decline, the euro can be bought on a rebound from 1.1603 and 1.1577.

To open short positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

The GDP data from US may lead to a further decline of the euro. A break and consolidation below the level of 1.1630 will be an additional signal for the opening of short positions in order to reduce to the area lows of 1.1603 and 1.1577, where fixing profits are recommended. In the case of growth in the afternoon, sales can again be sought on a false breakout from 1.1655.

analytics5b5aeb5da57f2.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5af8cf2df80.png

Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1.218. According to the H1 time – frame, I found ф breakout of the bearish flag pattern and the major upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky and that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,211.22.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,321.85

R2: $1.240.30

R3: $1,245.35

Support levels:

S1: $1,218.35

S2: $1,213.30

S3: $1,204.85

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 27th of July. The trading system "Regression Channels" generated a signal for sales

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b5abc203d104.png

Technical data:

Senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

CCI: -75.4717

The currency pair GBP / USD On July 26, against the backdrop of Mario Draghi's speech at a press conference on the ECB meeting, as well as the EUR / USD pair, began a downward movement. Bears have sold the moving average line, so the trend for the instrument has changed to a downward trend. As you can see, the pound sterling does not manage to form at least a short-term uptrend. It is not surprising, given the unresolved issue with Brexit (and the whole process has been going on for two years already), the political crisis in the UK, the weak macroeconomic indicators of the country in the first half of the year and even the possible delay in the country's exit from the EU if the parties fail to reach an agreement on time. The next most important event for the pound event will be meetings of the Bank of England next week. And it is necessary to prepare for this event right now. The last time three members of the monetary committee voted "for" the increase in the key rate. However, we continue to believe that the British regulator will not go on tightening monetary policy in the near future because of the problems listed above. But if all the same BA will take such a risky step, it can support the British currency only in a small temporary area.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.3062

S2 - 1,3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3123

R2 = 1.3184

R3 = 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

For a pair of GBP / USD, the bears took the initiative and overcame the removals. Thus, today it is recommended to be in shorts with the aim of Murray's level "2/8" - 1.3062 before the turn of the indicator of Heikin Ashi to the top, which will indicate the beginning of the upward correction.

Buy-positions are recommended to be opened after the reverse fixing of the price above the removals for the purpose of 1.3184. In this case, the bulls will have a new opportunity to still form an uptrend, and the current decline will be regarded as a correction.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 26th of July. Results of the day. Mario Draghi once again took a "soft" position

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b59e3abbe6d3.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 100p - 112p - 66p - 62p - 75p.

The average amplitude over the last 5 days is 83n (81n).

On Thursday, July 26, traders focused on the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi at a press conference on the regular meeting of the regulator. As expected, the key and deposit rates remained unchanged. No changes in Monetary Policy and plans Draghi announced. On the contrary, the ECB head noted that rates will remain at record low levels, at least until the summer of 2019, and confirmed that the quantitative incentive program will end in late 2018. Such rhetoric was already enough to make the euro come under pressure because Draghi did not indicate any optimistic forecasts. Further - worse. Mario Draghi noted that the EU economy still needs significant incentives to maintain inflation at the target level. It was also said that to maintain inflation, as before, any monetary policy instruments will be used. In addition, Draghi refrained from expressing joy at the verbal agreements between Jean Claude Juncker and Donald Trump regarding the gradual reduction of trade duties. It seems that Draghi believes that any agreements that are not sealed by the relevant documents can be violated at any time. And in this judgment, he is most likely right. Trump has long established himself as a man who easily changes his mind and takes his words back, motivating it by acting in the interests of the state. And if the state is profitable, then he, Trump, is right. Thus, we also believe that celebrating the "reunification" of the EU and the US will be possible when the duties begin to be canceled on both sides, not earlier. Until then, any new discontent of Trump could lead to new threats to the European Union, which, first of all, any trade barriers are unprofitable.

Trading recommendations:

The pair EUR / USD has started a downward correction, which may develop into a downtrend. At the moment, short positions with targets support levels of 1.1642 and 1.1614 are relevant. The development of these levels will allow you to manually shorten the shorts or leave them on the warrant Take Profit.

It is recommended to open a buy order after fixing the price above the Kijun-Sen line, which will mean a change in the short-term trend towards an upside. The goal, in this case, will again be the level of 1.1736, which has been traded by traders already three times.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences as of July 27: The pair getting ready to roll back up

4h

analytics5b5abc8ca060f.png

The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the US currency after the formation of the bearish divergence in the MACD indicator and began the process of falling towards the correction level of 200.0% at 1.3047. On July 27, there is maturing bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. Its formation will make it possible to expect the turn of the pair in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth towards the correction level of 161.8% at 1.3301. Clearing of quotations from the level of Fibo 200.0% will similarly work in favor of the pound sterling. Pairing the pair under the correction level of 200.0% will increase the chances of continuing the fall towards the next Fibo level of 261.8%.

The Fibo grid was established on boundaries from March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

1h

analytics5b5abc9557197.png

On the hourly chart, the quotes cleared from the Fibo level of 61.8% to 1.3208, a reversal in favor of the US currency and a fixation under the correction level of 38.2% to 1.3111. As a result, the fall of the pair could be continued today in the direction of the next Fibo level of 23.6% - 1.3052. Brewing divergences today is not observed in any indicator. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the currency of England and the beginning of the growth of quotations in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% at 1.3160.

The Fibo grid was established on boundaries from July 9, 2018 and July 19, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be opened with a target of 1.3160 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 38.2%, if there is a close above the Fibo level of 1.3111 (hourly chart) or if a bullish divergence is formed on the 4-hour chart.

The GBP / USD pair can now be traded with a target of 1.3052 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 38.2%, as there was a close under the Fibo level of 1.3111.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session for GBP / USD pair on July 27

To open long positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

It is advised to open long positions on the pound after updating support 1.3071 or after breaking through and consolidating above 1.3130 level, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the area of 1.3185, where fixing profits are recommended.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

While the trade is below the resistance of 1.3130, the pressure on the pound will be maintained, and the formation of a false breakdown at this level will be a good signal for the opening of new short positions in order to reduce the support area of 1.3071. The main goal of the sellers will be testing of the new low at 1.3010, where fixing profits are recommended.

analytics5b5ab88e151a3.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5aef50dafdd.png

Overview:

Pivot point: 1.3115.

The GBP/USD pair is in the bullish trend from the support levels of 1.3056 and 1.3115. The price is currently in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.3115, which coincides with daily pivot point. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3115. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3115. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the pivot (1.3115) with the first target at the level of 1.3209. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.3209. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3362) to test it in the long term. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3050.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5aeb6a6dbb5.png

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade downwards from the level of 1.1752 (pivot). Besides, it should be noted that the level of 1.1752 coincides with the pivot point. This week, the pair has dropped from the level of 1.1752 to the bottom around 1.1678. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1694, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1752, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1694, the market will decline further to 1.1623 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1752 with the first target at 1.1663 and further to 1.1566. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 1.1813.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5ae8bf8a626.png

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential bearish flag pattern in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence in the background. My advice is to watch for potential brekaout of the bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of $7.608.

Support/Resistance

$8.016 – Intraday resistance

$7.815– Intraday support

$7.608 – Objective target 1

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD analysis for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5ae2db2e5f5.png

Recently, the USD/CAD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3067. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a breakout of bullish flag pattern in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3092, 1.3120, and at the price of 1.3165.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3100

R2: 1.3130

R3: 1.3170

Support levels:

S1: 1.3033

S2: 1.2995

S3: 1.2965

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

AUD/JPY is approaching support at 81.91 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement x2, horizontal overlap support) where we expect price to bounce up to its resistance at 82.85 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is testing its support at 2.3% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

AUD/JPY is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 81.91. Stop loss at 81.39. Take profit at 82.85.

analytics5b5ae267ea041.png

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

NZD/USD is approaching support at 0.6770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizotnal swing low support) where we expect to see a bounce up to its resistance at 0.6823 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is testing its support at 3% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

NZD/USD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy entry 0.6770. Stop loss 0.6741. Take profit at 0.6823.

analytics5b5ae212d52fe.png

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Draghi remained with his rhetoric

The euro strengthened its position before the speech of the president of the European Central Bank, but then resumed its decline as investors and traders did not receive the necessary, concrete guidance related to the further policy of the European regulator.

In the morning, data came out that showed that consumer confidence in Germany in August of this year will weaken slightly.

According to the report of the research group GfK, the leading index of consumer confidence in Germany in August 2018 was 10.6 points against 10.7 points in July. The data fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. The GfK report also points out that the outlook for consumption remains positive.

Similar data for France were worse than forecasts. According to the report of the statistics agency Insee, the index of consumer confidence in France in July this year compared with June did not change, and remained at the level of 97 points, which is below the long-term average of 100 points. Analysts predicted that in July the index will be 99 points.

As expected, the European Central Bank left the refinancing rate unchanged at the level of 0.0%, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. The European Central Bank also left the deposit rate at -0.40%.

analytics5b59ca69dfb72.png

Statements made by the ECB did not cause a reaction in the market.

The ECB confirmed that rates will remain at current levels, at least until the end of the summer of 2019. Net asset purchases of 30 billion euros per month will be made before the end of September 2018. And from October, net asset purchases will be made at a volume of 15 billion euros per month until the end of December 2018. The program will end in late December this year.

ECB President Mario Draghi's speech began with the announcement that he had a significant incentive, which is still necessary to maintain inflation and also the need to adjust all his instruments, if necessary.

Draghi also noted that economic growth will remain strong and large-scale, as the data indicate economic recovery in accordance with the forecasts of the ECB economists.

The president of the central bank pointed to the growth of the harmonized consumer price index in June this year, which reflects the increase in energy prices, while overall inflation will stay at the current level until the end of the year.

Draghi once again confirmed that interest rates will remain at current levels, at least until the end of the summer of 2019, as the exchange rate is not the goal of the ECB policy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Further prospects for the growth of the euro in question

While all investors' attention was focused on the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank, a number of fundamental statistics on the US economy came out, which was mostly negative. Although, as we can see, this did not in the least hurt the US dollar.

According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the reporting week increased but remained in the lows in the last ten years. A good labor market situation is very important for the Federal Reserve System, as it is one of the key indicators of economic growth.

Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from 15 to 21 July increased by 9,000 and amounted to 217,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 215,000.

analytics5b5abf546df2f.png

Orders for durable goods in the US in June rose slightly after a decline last month, which is a good sign of growth in the country's manufacturing sector.

According to the US Department of Commerce, new orders for durable goods in June 2018 increased by 1.0% compared to the previous month, which was worse than forecast, as economists expected that orders in June will grow by 3.0%.

It is important to note that in May, orders decreased by 0.3%, and in April, it declined by more than 1.0%. Excluding transportation, orders in June increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month after an increase of 0.3% in May.

The deficit of US foreign trade in goods continued to grow in June, despite all measures taken by the administration of the White House.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the deficit of foreign trade in goods increased by 5.5%, or $ 3.6 billion, to $ 68.3 billion. In June, there was a drop in exports and an increase in imports.

Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City continued to grow in July. However, the intensity of the respondents' reaction caused import duties. According to the data, the Fed-Kansas City index in July 2018 was 23 points against 28 points in June.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the ascending channel is broken, which moved the trade into a wide lateral channel with a lower limit of 1.1570 and an upper resistance level of 1.1750. Buyers will try to catch on to support 1.1630 today . Otherwise, opening long positions in risky assets is best after updating the larger areas of 1.1605 and 1.1570.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Bitcoin for July 27, 2018

Bitcoin has broken out of the long-term downward sloping wedge pattern. The downtrend that started back in December of 2017 is most probably over. Price has started a bounce, so that I expect to see eventually the 13,000-14,000 price level.

analytics5b5aca6a2bc9d.png

Blue lines - bullish wedge

Black rectangle - major medium-term resistance

Yellow rectangles - targets

Bitcoin has started an upward move from the 6,000$ area and is now challenging important resistance at 8,300-8,700$. If price manages to break above the black rectangular area we should expect at least a move towards the first yellow rectangular area and the lower cloud boundary around at 10,200$. A break above 10,500$ will open the way for a move towards 13,600-14,500$. Bulls are regaining control of the trend but only a weekly close above 8,700$ will confirm a short-term trend change. This spring BTC price hit a low at around 6,000$, which is a very important level. Bulls should not lose this level, otherwise our longer-term view for a bounce towards 13-14,000$ will be canceled.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Rumors rendered a disservice to the European currency

ECB President Mario Draghi has been in office for almost 7 years and will resign next year, but the market still can not get used to his way of presenting information, putting unrealistic hopes on him.

Yesterday, traders were disappointed that the head of the European regulator did not tighten his speech and "bring closer" to the date of the rate hike. And although Draghi announced yesterday an extremely predictable position, the market made "surprised eyes" after the euro exchange rate and the yield of 10-year bonds sharply went down. However, the large-scale fall of EUR/USD was avoided. Bears of the EURUSD were able to push the price only to the middle of the 16th figure, where the southern impulse choked and got stuck in the flat. Further decline occurred in the area of the 15th figure, which would look awkward and unfounded but the ECB head did not say anything new and confirmed the intention of the regulator to raise the rate within the next year.

However, the market decided again that "the glass is half empty" than the other way around. For some reason, traders reacted sharply to Draghi's words that the core inflation index (without taking into account the volatile prices for food and energy) is still at a rather low level. This fact was known to the market and the June Core Inflation Rate was revised from 1% to the previous 0.9% without a reminder from the ECB head. Although in his speech, Draghi reduced the level of uncertainty about the inflationary growth prospects and economic growth risks, stating that these "are largely balanced."

analytics5b5aac799b1f1.jpg

The ECB head also paid attention to the agreements reached between Juncker and Trump, calling this event "a positive signal." Naturally, Mario Draghi showed caution here, saying that it is too early to draw any conclusions. After all, there was very little time left between Washington and Brussels since the "ceasefire" - and even the European Commission has not yet clearly formulated the details of the compromise reached. But in any case, Draghi's initial position on this issue was quite simple: "The lean world is better than the trade war," so he could not help but notice the positive impact of the Washington events. However, the market also ignored this fact, although, in my opinion, the prevention of a trade war between the US and the EU is much more significant than the current dilemma of traders - "when will the ECB raise the rate".

By and large, this temporary backlash became the catalyst for the decline in the European currency. The "hawkish" rumors that circulated on the eve of the ECB meeting created an artificial excitement around the supposedly harsher intentions of the regulator. Naturally, Mario Draghi did not confirm such conversations, thereby provoking the southern impulse of the EUR/USD. After all, for several weeks the press did not show encouraging notes that the rate could be raised earlier than the expected date, yesterday's meeting could well be viewed in a positive light.

First, the ECB is on the way to normalizing monetary policy - the deadline for the QE completion is not being transferred, the issue of rate increase will be considered next year. Secondly, Draghi noted the potential of the eurozone's economic growth and inflation indicators. Thirdly, the ECB head noted the improvement of foreign trade relations between the US and the European Union. Are these factors not a reason for strengthening the euro?

But the market is in some ways are emotional, so Draghi's habitual restraint and caution was perceived by traders in their own way, as a sign of a "dovish" attitude. On the other hand, such emotions are short-term in time and today the market participants will switch to American events. It's about releasing the data on US economic growth in the second quarter, in the context of the overall expectation of the Fed's July meeting to be held next week.

analytics5b5aac8a114f5.jpg

According to preliminary forecasts, the volume of US GDP in the second quarter will grow to 4.1% after a 2% growth in the second quarter. The price index of GDP should also show a positive trend - 2.4% versus 2.2%. If this forecast is justified, the probability of a fourth rate increase at the end of this year will rise again. Donald Trump "reproaches" about the actions of the Fed will go to the background, and traders will fully focus on waiting for the July meeting of the American regulator.

Alternative scenario cannot be ruled out if the US economy does not reach its forecast values. In this case, Trump expressed his position and said that "we invest so much in the economy, and then the rates go up". With this option, the dollar will remain under pressure until the Fed meeting.

analytics5b5aac9635446.jpg

From the point of view of technology, bear pairs need to stay above 1.1610 - this is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. If the data on US GDP will go beyond expectations, the pair can test this target and even try to gain a foothold in the 15th figure. Otherwise, the pair will return to local highs, which are in the price area 1.1730.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 26th of July. Euro currency pulled down the pound sterling

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b59e8b866b42.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 125p - 145p - 76p - 87p - 68p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 100p (109p).

The decision of the European Central Bank on monetary policy and rates, as well as the speech of Mario Draghi at the press conference very indirectly related to the UK and the pound sterling. But, as is often the case, the Euro-currency simply pulled the English currency behind it. The ECB chairman's speech is not difficult to call weak. Moreover, Mario Draghi did not give the markets any specific information, except for that which had already been known for a long time, about the timing of the completion of the quantitative incentive program and the period of ultra-low rates. The pound, after having worked out the target level of 1.3212, which we designated yesterday, turned down and began to decline. Further prospects for the British currency will now again entirely depend on the progress of negotiations on Brexit. Perhaps, even in the near future, the pound will again move to growth, as Trump and Junker seem to have agreed that, first of all, it is good for Europe. However, it should be noted that almost any new application of Trump regarding trade duties can turn everything upside down again. To say that the issue of a trade war, at least with the EU, is closed, it is impossible. So, in any case, new information on this topic will come from both sides. However, the British need to pay more attention to the actions of Teresa May in the near future, which took control of negotiations with the EU on Brexit. In the meantime, Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell said that the timing of the UK's withdrawal from the EU could be removed from March 2019. As he noted, all EU countries can take a unanimous decision to postpone this date. From a technical point of view, the correction is continuing, and there are no signals for its completion at the moment.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD began to be corrected. Thus, the price can work out in the coming hours the critical Kijun-sen line. When the price rebounds from Kijun-sen, it is recommended that you resume the pair's purchases with a target of 1.3212.

Sell-positions are recommended to open after fixing the price below the critical line. In this case, the trend for the instrument will change to a descending one, and the bears will be able to develop their success with targets of 1.3035 and 1.2961.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session on July 26 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Buyers need to gain a foothold above the resistance level of 1.3203, which will lead to the continuation of the upward trend with the update of the week's highs around 1.3263 and 1.3310, where I recommend fixing profits. In the event of a further decline in the pound, opening long positions is best for a rebound from 1.3139.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.3203, which I paid attention to my morning review, now works in favor of the pound sellers. As expected, the first stop was intermediate support 1.3165, a re-test of which will lead to a larger scale to the area of 1.3139, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of a pound in the afternoon higher than 1.3203, I advise selling only for a rebound from the resistance range 1.3263 and 1.3310.

analytics5b59b62415fe1.png

Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Litecoin For July 27, 2018

analytics5b5aa7be38f1d.jpg

If we look at the 4-hour chart, we can see that Litecoin is trading with a bullish bias. Besides, the price has been already moving in the upward channel but the Stochastic is near the oversold level. This means this cryptocurrency is going to make a small correctioin in a few days at least to test its nearest support level at 79.82. As long as Litecoin does not break out and closes below the 78.71 level, the bias for Litecoin remains bullish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The daily review of GBP / USD as of July 26. Ichimoku Indicator

analytics5b5986f6cdded.jpg

GBP / USD

This week the pound lost the support of the weekly cloud. The Senkou Span B level (1.3225) joined forces with a week-long Tenkan (1.3214) and daytime Fibo Kijun (1.3207), turning into a resistance. As a result, this line of resistance turned out to be reliably strengthened, and its overcoming can serve as the beginning of a new stage in the development of events. Support now is still concentrated in the area of 1.3144 (monthly Fibo Kijun + day cross), the next step in the process of reduction will be the update of the minimum extremum (1,2957) and the recovery of the downtrend.

analytics5b5987039ac21.jpg

The breakdown of the acting resistances (1.3225) will allow us to consider the following landmark - an upward target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud. Execution of the target will lead to testing of the nearest maximum extremum (1.3362). Reliable fastening above and entering the day cloud will open new prospects.

To restore bearish sentiment today, it is important to reduce under the support of the higher halves (1.3144-24), which are now intensifying the clouds of H1 (1.3120) and H4 (1.3072). The consolidation below the given supports will change the existing balance of forces, and will also affect the appearance of new benchmarks - downward targets for the breakdown of clouds of lower dimes.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for July 26. It is possible to build a new downward wave

analytics5b597884422bf.png

Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on July 25, the GBP / USD currency pair added another 50 percentage points and thus continued the construction of the rising wave, after the supposed completion of the construction of wave 5, 3, a. The downward corridor makes it possible to allow the downward part of the trend and, consequently, the entire wave 3, to become more complicated wave 3, a. A successful attempt to break the upper generatrix of the downward corridor of the line will lead to a conclusion about the readiness of the instrument to build a new upward trend section and will require the introduction of corrections and additions to the current markup. An unsuccessful attempt to break the upper line generates a further at least one downward wave.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3301 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (the oldest Fibonacci grid)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2962 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.2809 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair supposedly completed the construction of wave 3 in a. Nevertheless, the downward trend section may complicate its internal structure. Thus, I recommend to expect the pair to rise to the upper line of the downward corridor, near which to monitor whether the pair will be able to make a breakthrough. In the event of an unsuccessful attempt, I recommend forming new sales of the pair with a view to building a downward wave with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.2962 and 1.2809, which corresponds to 200.0% and 261.8% of Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 1:0 in favor of the euro

The United States and the European Union agreed on the abolition of trade duties and barriers. This news broke over financial markets yesterday by the end of the US session. Suddenly, the positive outcome of the meeting between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker helped the bulls EUR / USD return to the 17th figure after the pair had been trampled all day in a narrow-range flute.

The success of the negotiations at the White House was indeed unexpected. On the eve of this meeting, many factors said that the trade war between the US and the EU will continue. For example, the European Commissioner for Trade reported that the EU is preparing new duties on American goods, totaling $ 20 billion, in case the Americans impose duties on European cars. On the same day, the German foreign minister said that Europe would not allow talking with itself with the language of ultimatums and is able to respond with symmetrical measures of an economic nature.

Also one of the representatives of the European Commission reported that Jean-Claude Juncker went to the White House "without any trade proposal." Moreover, the press reported that the head of the EC will suggest Trump to create a customs agreement between the States and the EU, as well as with third countries, exporting cars. According to the overwhelming majority of experts, this idea was initially doomed to failure, since the implementation of such projects takes too much time.

Against the background of such a "preview", traders did not expect a positive outcome of the meeting. But in the end, it turned out this way. Donald Trump said that the parties agreed to create a working group on trade relations and will soon begin negotiations on import duties on steel and aluminum.

However, despite such a fundamental success of Brussels, the reaction of the euro was rather modest. Paired with the dollar, the single currency entered the 17th figure, but could not even test the first resistance level (the top line of the BB on D1), which was very close at 1.1755. In the cross-pairs, the euro also behaves quite insecurely, in the pairs EUR / CHF, EUR / GBP, and EUR / JPY yesterday's success was leveled by a downward movement during the Asian session.

The reason is obvious, traders are nervous because of today's meeting of the European Central Bank. Too many "hawkish" rumors preceded today's event so market participants are reasonably afraid of denials by Mario Draghi. After all, during the past few weeks, unofficial but extremely optimistic information on the prospects of the ECB monetary policy has come to the market. Some sources said that the rate could be increased already in September of the following year, while others did not exclude an earlier version, July 2019.

Some representatives of the European regulator cautiously confirmed the "hawkish" intentions of the ECB. However, without the designation of specific time-frames. Each of them emphasized that such decisions would be made only if the key macroeconomic indicators (primarily inflation indicators) demonstrate sustainable growth. That is why the euro's growth stalled after the June inflation index was revised downwards by 0.9% instead of the original one-percent level. And although we are talking about the fact that the figure returned to the May level, this fact cooled the heat of the bulls EUR / USD.

analytics5b5977c47a343.jpg

In my opinion, today, the regulator will keep a cautious approach to the prospects of monetary policy. Despite Juncker's success in Washington, Mario Draghi can focus on the US-China trade conflict, which is fraught with a slowdown in the global economy. Also, the head of the ECB can pay attention to the dynamics of PMI Composite (the index of business activity in the euro area), which in July came out at 54.3 points, although at the beginning of the year this indicator was almost at the 59th mark. This indicates a slowdown in many economic macro indicators.

In other words, the probability of voicing "pigeon" rhetoric from Mario Draghi is very high. He certainly will not announce tightening of monetary policy, let alone talk about any temporary guidelines. His cautious approach will return EUR / USD to the framework of the 16th figure because of general disappointments. Deeper decline of the pair is unlikely, after the publication of revised data on European inflation, the market has partly played the "pigeon" reaction of the ECB.

analytics5b59757380bb3.jpg

But if, contrary to the expectations of the majority of Draghi, optimistic assessments are made regarding the growth of inflation and the European economy as a whole, the euro will receive a powerful impetus for its growth. In this case, the pair will break through not only resistance level of 1.1755, but also can test the 18th figure. In view of yesterday's Washington events, this option cannot be ruled out either. In any case, the July meeting will not be "passing", the rhetoric of the head of the ECB will play a key role in determining the vector of the euro movement in the medium term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for USD/JPY for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5abf66549c2.jpg

Technical outlook:

The outlook for USD/JPY looks to be bullish at least in the short term. As depicted here on the 4H chart, the pair has been forming higher highs and higher lows since May 2018. Moreover, it has bounced right from the support line that connects previous 2 bottoms/lows at 110.60 levels yesterday. Looking into the wave structure, the pair is poised to stage a rally from yesterday's lows and push above 113.00 levels before producing a meaningful pullback lower. Furthermore, the pair is finding support from the past resistance turned support zone as well. Looking into all these convergence points, it is high probable, that USD/JPY is headed north from here till prices stay above 109.30 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop at 109.25, target above 113.00

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for US GDP figures to be out today at 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 27, 2018

Yesterday I noted that price was challenging the long-term important resistance at 1.1730-1.1760. I also mentioned in yesterday's analysis that the best option would be to go short this pair as the risk reward ration favored this view. The potential of a rejection was high, price was near resistance and the stop was very close. Price indeed got rejected and is now nearly 90 pips lower.

analytics5b5abf8d85704.png

Black lines - triangle pattern

Blue lines - contracting triangle in RSI

The EUR/USD pair got rejected yesterday at the upper triangle boundary and is now trading near 1.1647. Trend remains neutral as long as we are inside this triangle. Break below 1.16 and we will start a move lower towards 1.13. Break above 1.1740 and we are off to 1.19. The RSI is approaching support level so traders should not chase the short side here until we have more info about the market conditions, specially after the US GDP announcement later in the day. This is a macroeconomic announcement that is expected to influence the direction of this pair significantly.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Ripple for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5aa77e60508.jpg

According to the 4-hour chart, Ripple now has a tendency towards the bullish bias. This condition is clearly seen by the price moving orderly in an upward channel. However, the Stochastic Oscillator is approaching the oversold area, so there will be correction a few days later, approximately next week on Monday or Tuesday, to test Ripple's nearest support level before the price goes up again as long as this Crypto Currency does not break out and closes below 0.4961. Thus, Ripple remains inside the bullish bias.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for July 26. Bearish divergence allows the dollar to strengthen

4h

analytics5b5974cdd31ed.png

The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart reversed the European currency, after rebounding from the correction level of 50.0% to 1.1680, and the fixation over the Fibo level of 61.8% to 1.1721. As a result, on July 26, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1771. Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator allows you to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in quotations. Strengthening the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% - 1.1680.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 14, 2018, and June 21, 2018.

Daily

analytics5b5974d797931.png

On the 24-hour chart, the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator still allows the growth of quotations to be expected in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789. The pair's retracement from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Fixing the quotes above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the pair's chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1938.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of the pair EUR / USD on July 26 can be opened with the target of 1,1771 and the Stop Loss level under the correction level of 61.8% if the last peak of the bearish divergence breaks out.

To sell the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1,1680 if the Fibo level is closed at 61.8%, with a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 1.1721.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for July 27, 2018

The Gold price remains trapped inside the wedge pattern. The price got rejected at the $1,230-35 resistance area and is now challenging short-term support at $1,220-17 area. A break below this area will open the way for a push lower towards $1,200-$1,180. A break above $1,235 will open the way for a move towards $1,245-50.

analytics5b5abea2d7f3a.png

Black lines - downward sloping wedge pattern

Blue line - RSI resistance

Red line - bullish divergence RSI Support

The Gold price could make a new low towards $1,207 where the lower wedge pattern boundary is found. The $1,200-$1,205 area is the next important support. So far trend remains bearish as we see price making lower lows and lower highs. Only a break above $1,235 will change this. The bullish divergence justifies that it is time for a strong bounce but does not guarantee it. We need to break the blue RSI resistance and the $1,235 level first.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The stability of the foreign exchange market is deceptive

Eurozone

Today, the next ECB meeting on monetary policy will be held. Market participants do not expect any changes, the main intrigue will be the possible changes in the wording in the accompanying statement and commentary of Mario Draghi at the press conference because regarding the timing of the first rate hike the market is not completely clear.

The dynamics of European bonds is weak, the yield growth is minimal, which means the market's confidence in the absence of any significant changes. The curtailment of the asset repurchase program will go according to plan, any easing in this matter is likely, taking into account the negative yields of short euro-zone bonds.

Macroeconomic statistics does not give any new benchmarks. Business activity in the euro area continues to slow, the indices of Ifo in Germany in July slightly decrease compared to June, a similar conclusion gives the consumer confidence index Gfk, which lost 1 point relative to 10.7p last month.

analytics5b5974ad3a61d.png

The growth of inflation is due to a significant increase in energy prices, so any hints at the acceleration of normalization may strike a blow to consumer confidence. At the same time, the spread of yields between 10-year German bonds and Treasuries has reached record levels, which pushes the ECB to greater decisiveness.

Negotiations between Trump and the head of the European Commission Juncker gave the result, which led to the growth of the euro, but the truce is temporary. The agreements do not cover the automotive sector, besides the EU will have to increase LNG from the US. Nevertheless, the players appreciated this move positively, and by the end of the day, if the ECB meeting is held in accordance with expectations, EUR / USD may rise above 1.1785 with a probable attempt to test for strength 1.1850.

The United Kingdom

Next week, the Bank of England will hold a meeting at which the rate is expected to be raised from 0.50% to 0.75%. This increase is expected for a long time, macroeconomic indicators are not hampered, as the unemployment rate is low, inflation is higher than the target, and business activity has recovered from the recent fall.

The Bank of England focuses its attention on the possible overheating of the economy, this issue worries much more than some slowdown in inflation. Like most world securities, BoE proceeds from the truth of the Phillips curve, according to which the tightening of the labor market automatically leads to an increase in inflationary pressures.

analytics5b5974c0e058d.png

Unlike the Fed, BoE does not consider it necessary to reduce the number of redeemed bonds, since the rate is still low, at the previous extended meeting this issue was specially stipulated - no reduction until the rate reaches 1.5%. As the markets proceed from the average rate of growth rates at 0.25% per year, we can assume that this factor will be a long-term bearish factor for the pound.

The pound may try to resume growth in the coming days, but, most likely, any possible rally will be short-lived.

Oil and ruble

Quotes of oil remain stable near the reached annual maximums due to the absence of new factors that can change the fragile balance. The OPEC + countries are planning to increase production, negotiations on a new structure based on OPEC + are going well, and one can be sure that prices will remain under control.

Brent will continue to trade in the range, a slight preponderance of purchases is likely to reach 76.90.

The ruble will continue to weaken under the influence of a number of negative factors. Political pressure on Russia may increase, the probability of extending the sanctions regime to sovereign debt is growing. The meeting of the Bank of Russia today also will not be aggressive, according to the market, the issue of rate reduction will be postponed until at least 2019. Correction decrease RUB / USD to 62.83 short-term, more likely the resumption of growth with the target of 63.95.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences as of July 26. Hyphenation and bearish divergence can help the dollar.

4h

analytics5b5974965662e.png

The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart continues the growth process towards the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3301. July 26 is maturing bearish divergence in the MACD indicator. Its formation will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the correction level of 200.0% - 1.3047. End of quotes from the level of Fibo 161.8% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the fall of the pair. Strengthening the exchange rate above the correction level of 161.8% will increase the likelihood of continued growth towards the next Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.3530.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018, and April 17, 2018.

1h

analytics5b59749f676d4.png

On the hourly chart, quotations have made growth to the correction level of 61.8% - 1.3208. The fall of the pair's rate from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the correction level of 50.0% to 1.3160. Brewing divergences today is not observed in any indicator. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.3266.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018, and July 19, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be opened with a target of 1.3266 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 61.8% if there is a close above the Fibo level of 1.3208 (hourly chart).

Sell GBP / USD will be possible with targets of 1.3160 and 1.3111 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 61.8% if there is a retreat from the Fibo level of 1.3208, especially in conjunction with the bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for GBP/USD for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5ab4171060b.jpg

Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair may be into its final leg lower as EUR/USD, before producing a meaningful counter-trend rally for the remaining of months. Please note that the pair has been dropping since mid of April 2018 and seems very close to completing its first major down move. Looking at the wave structure, the pair might be carving out a diagonal and into its 5th wave lower, before reversing sharply. If the above structure would hold, we should see prices dropping below 1.2950 levels or close to that. Thereafter, we can expect the years largest counter-trend rally which could last for several weeks to come. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3200 levels, followed by 1.3300 levels, while interim support is seen at 1.2969 levels respectively. Expect intraday rallies to be capped below 1.3200 levels though.

Trading plan:

Remain short and add more on intraday rallies, stop above 1.3200, target 1.2950.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for US GDP figures to be out today at 0830 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5aabce63358.jpg

Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index might be looking to carve one small high above 95.50 levels in the next 2 days to come before reversing sharply lower. Looking at the recent wave structure, the index might be forming an ending diagonal, which is most probably into its 5th wave as depicted here on the 4H chart. Also seen is the sharp bounce at the line of support indicating that 5th wave is on its way higher. Till prices stay above 94.10 levels, a bull is expected to remain in control and print one more high close to 96.00 levels. A sharp drop can be expected thereafter, which could bring prices lower towards 93.00 levels at least. On the other side, a break below 93.70 levels would indicate that the pair has topped out at 95.50 levels and is likely to continue lower.

Trading plan:

Aggressive long now, stop at 94.00, target 96.00/10. Then reverse.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for US GDP figures at 0830 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 27, 2018

analytics5b5aa72a234f3.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as French Consumer Spending m/m, German Import Prices m/m, and French Flash GDP q/q. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, and Advance GDP q/q, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1700.

Strong Resistance:1.1693.

Original Resistance: 1.1682.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1671.

Target Inner Area: 1.1643.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1615.

Original Support: 1.1604.

Strong Support: 1.1593.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1586.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 27, 2018

analytics5b5aa6ceca37a.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Tokyo Core CPI y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, and Advance GDP q/q. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.63.

Resistance. 2: 111.41.

Resistance. 1: 111.19.

Support. 1: 110.95.

Support. 2: 110.72.

Support. 3: 110.49.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5aa223a1b23.jpg

Trading plan:

Remain short and add more towards 1.1700 levels, stop at 1.1785, the target is open.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for US GDP at 0830 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD. The New Zealand dollar allowed itself an upward correction

The price index for dairy products since June 5 is in a negative area, putting background pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The latest Global Dairy Trade auctions (which are held every two weeks) have shown that the cost of basic dairy products is declining against the background of weak demand and overproduction. The NZD/USD pair in the long-term period is within the downward trend - this is clearly seen on the monthly chart. However, on the lower timeframes we see a corrective pullback from the base of the 67th figure, i.e. from the annual lows.

analytics5b59d4c8b62e6.jpg

As in the case of the Australian dollar, traders of the NZD/USD should also consider short positions with a more or less significant growth of the New Zealand currency. The overall trend is still bearish, and the short-term success of the bulls of the pair is associated either with the weakness of the US dollar or with a temporary "gap" of the fundamental background. For example, on Thursday, as soon as the pair reached the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart (i.e. 0.6850), the price bounced off the resistance level and slowly (but surely) fell down.

The price correction of NZD/USD pair is due to the growth of the core inflation in New Zealand. The indicator was not only higher than the forecasts, but also set a kind of record. Thus, the consumer price index in the second quarter increased by 1.7% year-on-year, which is the fastest growth rate in the last seven years. In the first quarter, the indicator also came out at a fairly high level-1.6%. After the growth of retail sales and a small decline in unemployment, this release fuelled an impulse rise in the price of the NZD/USD.

In addition, the dollar bulls of the pair enjoy the uncertainty of the US currency, which is still unable to recover from the statement of Donald Trump to the Fed. Although the dollar index has stopped falling, dollar pairs still feel some pressure. Next week, the Fed will hold a July meeting, and until this moment, the central bank's members have kept the traditional silence, refusing to comment publicly. So now only Trump "speaks", and speaks a lot and often - and about China, and about the Fed, and about Europe, and about Russia. The dollar has lost a foothold, and only the Fed will be able to restore confidence in the US currency, or, on the contrary, confirm existing fears.

In other words, the NZD/USD pair can afford a corrective growth under current conditions, but further escalation of the US-China conflict, the decline in the commodity market and the "dovish" position of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not allow the bulls to unfold the trend.

At the end of the last RBNZ meeting, the head of the central bank Adrian Orr said that the country's economy is growing at a slower pace than previously expected. The rest of the rhetoric was in the nature of cautious optimism, but Orr made it clear that in the foreseeable future, the OCR rate will remain at the same level – and if necessary, will be reduced. According to most currency strategists, the rate will not be revised upward until November next year. And in the spring, experts discussed an earlier period - the summer of 2019.

Low demand for dairy products against the background of overproduction also puts pressure on the national currency. The results of the GDT auctions show that the prices of almost all exchange dairy products (except for skimmed milk powder) decreased. Furthermore, business activity in the service sector also slowed to 52.8. The sale of milk and tourism are key sectors of the new Zealand economy, so the decline in the corresponding indicators cannot be ignored.

The trade war between Washington and China also has a negative impact on the New Zealand economy. China is the most important trading partner of New Zealand, so the slowdown of the Chinese economy will affect the key indicators of the island state.

All this suggests that the NZD/USD pair can now show only a corrective growth, but it is not advisable to talk about a trend reversal.

This is also confirmed by the technical picture: on the weekly chart, the NZD/USD pair is located between the average and the lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. This indicates a downward trend. On W1, the pair is also under the Kumo cloud and under all the lines of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator – another argument for sales, as this indicator has formed a strong bearish signal "Parade of lines". The support level is the lowest of the year at 0.6710.

analytics5b59d4b8942a2.jpg

In the medium-term trade, you can consider sales from the current position to the above-mentioned support or "catch" another corrective growth in the future. The resistance level is 0.6850-the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. If the bulls of the pair manage to break through this level and gain a foothold over it, the pair will open the way to the next resistance level – 0.6935 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on D1). However, such growth is unlikely in the near future.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 27, 2018

analytics5b5a914b9d684.png

EUR/NZD is a break above the descending channel resistance-line near 1.7173 indicating that red wave ii completed with the test of 1.7130 and red wave iii towards 1.7510 now is developing.

Short-term, we would like to see a break above resistance at 1.7207 too, as confirmation that red wave iii is in motion for the next impulsive rally.

Support is now seen at 1.7162 and again at 1.7130. Ideally the later will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7207.

R3: 1.7305

R2: 1.7268

R1: 1.7207

Pivot: 1.7184

S1: 1.7162

S2: 1.7130

S3: 1.7116

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, you should buy here at 1.7180 or upon a break above 1.7207 and use the same stop at 1.7110.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com