Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 26, 2017

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Our upward targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. USD/JPY is expected to advance further. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index shows upward momentum.

Hence, as long as 111.55 is support, look for a new rise to 112.40 and even to 112.80 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.55 with a target at 111.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.55, Take Profit: 112.40

Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.80, and 113.15 Support Levels: 111.30, 111.00, 110.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 26, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. USD/CHF is still expected to post some upside gains and trading on higher range. The pair is holding on the upside and is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is above its overbought level at 70, but has not displayed any reversal signal.

Therefore, as long as 0.9515 is not broken, look for a new challenge to 0.9630 and even to 0.9660 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9515, Take Profit: 0.9630

Resistance levels: 0.9630, 0.9660, and 0.9685

Support levels: 0.9485, 0.9455, and 0.9400

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 26, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook as far as support holds at 145.30. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which are playing support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

In addition, 145.30 is playing a key support role, which should limit the downside potential. As long as this key level is not broken, look for further upside moves towards 146.30 and even 146.60 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 145.30 with the target at 144.95.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 145.30, Take Profit: 146.30.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 146.30, 146.60, and 147.00

Support levels: 144.95, 144.45, and 143.75.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 26, 2017

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NZD/USD is still expected to trade with bearish bias as far as the price trades near 0.7460. The pair is under pressure below its key resistance at 0.7460. The downward momentum is further reinforced by the declining 50-period moving average.

Hence, as long as 0.7460 is not surpassed, another decline to 0.7400 and even to 0.7380 seems more likely to occur.

Strategy: SELL Stop Loss: 0.7460 Take Profit: 0.7400

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7480, 0.7500, and 0.7530

Support levels: 0.7400, 0.7380, and 0.7360

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for July 26, 2017

EUR/GBP has been in a bullish non-volatile trend recently which is currently showing some retracement bouncing off from 0.8960 area. Euro has been quite positive in nature recently and had good economic reports as well which helped the currency to gain against the GBP where GBP is suffering from bad economic reports and political unrest in the country. Today we had GBP Prelim GDP report which was published as expected at 0.3% which previously was at 0.2%, BBA Mortgage Approvals report showed a slight decrease to 40.2k from the previous value of 40.3k which was expected to decrease more to 39.9k and Index of Services was also published as expected at 0.4% which previously was at 0.2%. GBP showed some gains over Euro today having positive economic reports and with no Euro economic events to compete against. Tomorrow Euro has Spanish Unemployment Rate report to be published which is expected to decrease to 17.7% from the previous value of 18.8% and M3 Money Supply report is expected to be unchanged at 5.0%. If the Euro economic reports come out positive tomorrow then we can see some gains on the Euro in the coming days or else counter trend possibility is also quite present in the market currently.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing some bearish pressure today which is expected to take the price down towards 0.8850 and dynamic level of 20 EMA before proceeding further with the bullish trend with a much higher target towards 0.9050. As the price remains above the 20 EMA and 0.8850 with a daily close the bullish bias is expected to continue but currently, short term bearish pressure is expected as a form of retracement towards the support level.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 26, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2999. According to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.3007, which is a sign that selling looks risky. There is a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3080 and 1.3100.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3070

R2: 1.3115

R3: 1.3145

Support levels:

S1: 1.3000

S2: 1.2970

S3: 1.2925

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 26, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

The recent bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1710, 1.1850 and 1.2000.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a temporary bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.

The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.1720 (August 2015 Highest level) where price action should be watched for a bearish pullback.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1410-1.1515 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched if a bearish pullback occurs.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for July 26, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1612. According to the 30M time frame, I found successful rejection from the strong support cluster at the price of 1.1620. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. Also, there is an oversold RSI, which is another sign of strength. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1700 and 1.1710.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1690

R2: 1.1745

R3: 1.1775

Support levels:

S1: 1.1610

S2: 1.1581

S3: 1.1530

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 26, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place in May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand-zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry if any bearish pullback occurs.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 26/07/2017

Global macro overview for 26/07/2017:

The Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement is the most expected event of the week. The market participants do not expect any change in the interest rate as it should be left unchanged at the level of 1.25%. In that situation, much more important will be Rate Statement conclusions and clues regarding further monetary policy.

The overall macro economic trend is still strong enough to prevent the US from falling back into recession, but the pace of the expansion so far is below its counterparts in the Eurozone. For the moment, the economic data generated by the US are strong enough to keep a moderate expansion alive but too weak to inspire high confidence that more rate hikes are near. Another uncertainty is the task of managing expectations down in the wake of last year's election, which inspired hope that Donald Trump would trigger a revival in US economic activity. So far the expectations look a way ahead of themselves as none of the Trump's electoral pledges were accomplished.

Following the recent interest rate hike in June, the FOMC meeting this week should bring a pause in the process of monetary policy normalization. Nevertheless, the post-meeting message will be analyzed for changes in language. Two issues will attract particular attention: inflation and reduction of balance sheet total. Although the confirmation of the start of a reduction in the balance sheet total in September is a positive impulse for USD, fears of inflation will weigh on the expected path of rate hikes, thus exerting pressure on the yield curve and on the USD.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price has made another lower low at the level of 93.63, just below the technical support at the level of 94.07. The market conditions are severely oversold, so there is a good chance of a corrective pull back toward the level of 95.05 is the FOMC statement will match the market participants expectations.

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Global macro overview for 26/07/2017

Global macro overview for 26/07/2017:

The second quarter CPI data from Australia were worse than anticipated. The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that Q2 CPI was at the level of 0.2%, which was a worse than the previous reading of 0.5% and worse than market expectations of 0.4%. In a yearly basis, the CPI deteriorate from 2.2% to 1.9%. Annual inflation comes in roughly at the midpoint of the central bank's 1-3% target range. Last year, CPI fell to multi-decade lows, prompting the RBA to slash interest rates to new record lows.

The Australian Dollar's depreciation is the result of disappointing lower-than-expected inflation readings for the second quarter and the repetition by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe of a very dovish Debelle statement from a week In the speech, he reiterated, that RBA is not going to raise rates quickly and will not allow the market to discount such a scenario under the influence of increases made by the Bank of Canada for example. Moreover, it does not look like the iron ore or copper ore prices will be still developing to such an advantage for the Australian dollar as before. In the case of industrial metals, the global investors will probably have to wait longer, but the corrective cycle is indispensable. The sooner the Chinese economy, which consumes more than all OECD countries together, will lose momentum in the second half of the year, the faster the correction will happen. With that in mind, the global investors should not forget that copper at high levels (today's at 27-month peak) is more stabilized by supply disruptions than demand and the similar situation is on iron ore and aluminum markets. Therefore, there is no reason to expect the industrial metal price to be able to support the Australian Dollar. With the current RBA monetary policy plans and after very strong strengthening to 0.8000 level. the AUD/USD will be one of the most sensitive currencies when the US Dollar begins to make up its losses.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The pair is trading close to two years high around the level of 0.7900. The market conditions look overbought on this timeframe and the momentum indicator is pointing to the downside. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7874 and 0.7838.

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Trading plan for 26/07/2017

Trading plan for 26/07/2017:

The night session was dominated by Australian CPI inflation surprising data. In Q2 the strength of inflationary processes clearly disappointed the expectations of the market participants, as the price index jumped only 0.2% (consensus: 0.4 percent). The inflow of not optimistic data clearly weakens the Australian dollar, which is currently losing 0.5% to his American counterpart. The US Dollar is under pressure not because of today's FOMC decision, but also plans for the future of Obamacare. EUR/USD trades at the level of 1.6330, GBP/USD trades at the level of 1.3015. The strongest gains are seen in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, where the Nikkei 225 0.6% rally is driven by the industrial companies. The Shanghai Composite Index gains 0.06%, close to day open.

On Wednesday 26th of July, the event calendar is busy with the important economic releases. At the beginning, Switzerland will release Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) index data, then the UK will post Preliminary GDP. Nevertheless, the main event of the day is the FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement that will be published later on the day.

GBP/USD analysis for 26/07/2017:

The UK Preliminary GDP for the second quarter is scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and the market participants expect an increase in the second quarter from 0.2% to 0.3% and an overall decrease from 2.0% to 1.7% on yearly basis. The prediction matches the National Institute of Economic and Social Research's projection. Given the uncertainty of the result of the Brexit negotiations, there is no reason to increase the UK GDP expectations for this year. Moreover, some economists are expecting even slower growth this year, for example, the Centre for Economics and Business Research is looking for output to rise just 1.3% this year. Today's data does not look like they are about to change this outlook and if the data will disappoint, then the British Pound might feel pressure across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market keeps trading sideways between the levels of 1.2931 - 1.3125, but any attempt to rally is quickly capped above 1.3100 area. The market conditions are starting to look overbought again, so the odds for a downside breakout will increase if the UK data will be worse than anticipated. The next most important support is 61%Fibo at the level of 1.2931, so any breakout below this level will open the road towards the technical support at the level of 1.2861.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil rally after the data

The price of Crude Oil spiked up above $48.00 level after the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory data for the week ending July 21st, which recorded a draw of 10.23 million barrels. In the result., the price has broken above the technical resistance zone and touched the 61%Fibo at the level of $48.19, with a high at the level of $48.65. Currently, the market conditions are starting to look overbought, but there is no visible divergence yet. The level of $47.53 will act as a technical support now.

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Market Snapshot: GBP/JPY retraced 50% of the last swing down

The price of GBP/JPY has retraced 50% of the recent down swing and was capped at the level of 145.86 so far. The next technical resistance is at the level of 146.03, which is just below the 615Fibo at the level of 146.32. There is still a chance that this level will be hit before the overbought market conditions will result in another leg down on this pair.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USDX for July 26, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend despite the short-term bounce yesterday. As long as the price is below 94.50 trends is clearly bearish. A rejection at current levels will bring in more sellers and push the index to new lows.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index is trading below the 4-hour Kumo and therefore the short-term trend is bearish. Resistance is at 94.50 and next at 95. Support is at 93.95 and next at 93.30.

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On a daily basis, the trend is clearly bearish as the price is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen. Resistance is at 94.75. A daily close above this level would be an initial reversal signal that would at least push price towards 95.75.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of gold for July 26, 2017

The Gold price got rejected just below the $1,260 level yesterday and has pulled back towards $1,245. Support is critical now at $1,243-$1,237 and if this level is broken we should expect a move at least towards $1,227.

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Red rectangle - support area

Blue trend line - support

The Gold price remains in a bullish trend as price is above the Kumo (cloud). Price is pulling back to back test the breakout area of $1,243-40. Holding above the red rectangle and the blue trend line will be a bullish sign and might bring in more buyers for another leg higher towards $1,275-80.

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The Gold price got rejected at the Daily Kumo and near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline. The daily trend remains bearish as long as the price is below the Kumo. Daily support is at $1,237-31. Resistance is at $1,257 and next at $1,265.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 07/26/2017

General picture: Fed, trends under pressure.

The beginning of the week became difficult for currency traders.

The EURUSD pair broke through the 1.1685 level on the upside and recurred the highs of 2015 at 1.0711 (as shown in the euro's schedule at MT-4, the upper limit of 2015 is at 1.0712).

In the morning, the euro pierced down a minimum of a new week at 1.1625, but it seems that traders are waiting for the stop.

However, surprises are always possible.

Business media writes that on Thursday, July 27, will be critically important for the EU stock market.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning Forecast: FRS at 19.00 BST

FRS at 19.00 BST

Burning forecast.

Fed rate: Current 1.00 - 1.25%. The forecast is unchanged.

The program "Anti-QE" or the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet sale of bonds. The beginning of the operation is not earlier than September (option - December).

The rate increase plan is one increase for the remainder of December 2017 or at the end of the year.

The forecast of the state of the economy is moderate growth. The estimated inflation is below the FRS threshold of 2% per annum.

Market reaction: In case of a soft statement by the Fed, the trend against the dollar will continue. The EUR/USD rate will break to 1.0712 and will move towards 1.1800. The franc, pound and gold will grow against the dollar.

The yen will try to maintain the growth of the dollar. That is, it is better to buy a yen for a dollar.

Alternative option: Unexpectedly, the tough statement by the Fed will cause a strong correction in the foreign exchange market and strengthen the dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

FOMC Meeting: dollar under pressure

Today, the US Federal Open Market Committee will hold a regular meeting on monetary policy. Despite the fact that the incoming signals about the slowdown in economic activity reduces the FOMC's ability to implement previously stated goals, we should not expect surprises from today's meeting since macroeconomic forecasts will not be adjusted because of it.

The Fed will most likely postpone any active actions until the fall. The market is currently inclined to the fact that the announcement of the beginning of a "quantitative tightening" will be on September 15. This includes the procedure for the reduction of balance sheets followed by a rate increase in December.

The only intrigue is whether or not the accompanying text of the statement will be changed. One of the key parameters guiding the Fed in its decisions is inflation which has been slowing down for four consecutive months. This has always been expressed in the market's growing concerns. If the Fed reflects the slowdown in inflation in their statement, then the markets will perceive this change as a bearish signal.

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At the moment, there is no reason to expect that the Fed will change comments. The basic principle that governs the regulator is the improvement in the labor market which is contributing to wage growth. This in turn contributes to core inflation growth. The last employment report for June can be considered positive as the pace of growth of new jobs is not slowing down. This is a confirmation that the Fed will not change the wording of the accompanying statement.

The dollar, therefore, is unlikely to react to the results of the FOMC meeting. The players will instead focus on other criteria. Macroeconomic data, published earlier this week, is still contradictory and does not give any new drivers. Preliminary PMI Markit values for July came out somewhat better than expected at 53.2p in the manufacturing sector and 54.2p in the service sector against expectations of 52.0p and 54.0p respectively. However, the housing market has brought a solid negative. Sales in the secondary market slowed in June. Meanwhile, the housing price index in May was also slightly below expectations according to Standard & Poor's. This indicates a decrease in inflation expectations.

Political risks are also growing. The US Congress House of Representatives voted to adopt a wide package of sanctions directed against Russia, Iran, and the DPRK. The streamlined and unconvincing wording cannot hide the main conclusion from the current situation namely the significant deterioration of the US and European relations, especially in Germany. This is because Germany is the main beneficiary of the "Nord Stream-2" gas pipeline which is currently under construction. The new sanctions are aimed mostly against European companies. Because of this the adoption of the law may cause retaliatory actions from the EU leaders. A new round of war sanctions can inflict significant damage to US and European relations because it does not stand up in terms of feasibility of pursuing a coherent policy. This can give the EU leaders limited access to US financial companies on the European market. The likelihood of such a step is in favor of the euro, since it will reduce demand for the dollar in European companies.

On Friday, the first preliminary estimate of the US GDP growth for the second quarter will be published. Expectations are positive with experts predicting a 2.6% growth, slightly higher than the average in recent years. At the same time, forecasts for spending in personal consumption are extremely weak which already puts pressure on the dollar.

The euro, in its current situation, still looks stronger than the dollar. Reaching 1.19 in the short-term is likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USDCAD for July 26, 2017

USD/CAD has been in an impulsive non-volatile bearish trend since the rate hike decision of CAD held recently. CAD has been quite dominating over USD recently without any sort of weakness along the momentum. On Monday, CAD wholesale Sales report was published where it showed an increase to 0.9% from previous value of 0.8% which was expected to decrease to 0.5%. Friday CAD has GDP report to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% but looking at the recent positive economic reports and hawkish sentiment of CAD the GDP report seems to show some positive outcome. On the USD side, today FOMC Meeting will be held discussing the upcoming interest rate hikes, future monetary policies and the inflation rate which is expected to be quite hawkish and a hint of further rate hikes in the coming months is expected. Before the FOMC Meeting Minutes, today USD New Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 615k from the previous value of 610k and Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to show a less deficit at -3.3m which previously was at -4.7m. As of the upcoming events of the currencies in the pair, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market today and there are higher chances of some gains on the USD side after the FOMC meeting today which might provide USD to have some short-term gains against CAD this week.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has shown indecision yesterday and showing some bullish pressure ahead of the FOMC Meeting minutes today. Currently, the price is expected to show some retracement towards 1.2640-50 resistance level before progressing further with the downtrend with a target towards 1.2450 support level. As the price remains below 1.2650 with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue further with such momentum in the market.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for July 26, 2017

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Wave summary:

There is absolutely nothing new to add here. The range-trading in the 1.5577-1.5899 area is continuing. We still expect a break above 1.5780 and more importantly a break above 1.5899 to be seen for a continuation higher towards 1.6236 and above.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5410. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5780 and use the same stop.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 26, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY has failed to break lower towards 127.22, which indicates that wave v higher towards the ideal 133.46 target already is developing. Support is now seen at 129.22 and should be able to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 130.77 confirming that wave v is unfolding.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop+reverse at 129.75 was hit for a small profit and reversal to long EUR. Our stop will be placed at 129.15.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 26, 2017

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There is no Economic Data will be released when the European market opens, but the US will release the Economic Data, such as Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Crude Oil Inventories, and New Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1700.

Strong Resistance:1.1693.

Original Resistance: 1.1682.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1671.

Target Inner Area: 1.1643.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1615.

Original Support: 1.1604.

Strong Support: 1.1593.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1586.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 26, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Crude Oil Inventories, and New Home Sales. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.52.

Resistance. 2: 112.30.

Resistance. 1: 112.08.

Support. 1: 111.81.

Support. 2: 111.59.

Support. 3: 111.37.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 26, 2017

EUR/USD: The bullish bias on this market remains intact – though the price is currently consolidating. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, but the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. This could be a bullish signal, especially when the Williams' % Range rises from the oversold region.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF is currently experiencing a short-term rally in the context of a downtrend. The price has risen 70 pips this week, now above the support level at 0.9500. A movement above the resistance level at 0.9650 would result in a bullish bias; while a movement below the support level at 0.9450 would act to emphasize the recent bearish bias.

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GBP/USD: Despite the consolidation on the Cable, the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-chart is still existing (though threatened). The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is supposed to be a rise in momentum before the end of this week, or early next week, which would most probably favor bulls.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY is currently experiencing a short-term rally in the context of a downtrend. Price has risen by 100 pips this week, now close to the supply level at 112.00. A movement above the supply level at 113.00 would result in a bullish bias; while a movement below the demand level at 111.00 would act to emphasize the recent bearish bias.

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EUR/JPY: This cross has held out its bullishness so far, in spite of the short-term consolidation being witnessed. One reason the cross is able to remain bullish till now is the strength in the EUR itself, and things would begin to drop once the EUR loses strength. There could be a reversal within the next several trading days.

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EUR/USD below major resistance, remain bearish

The price has formed a really strong bearish reversal sign below 1.1693 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish price action, bearish divergence) and we expect to see a further drop below this level towards at least 1.1583 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is dropping nicely from our 98% resistance and has good downside potential.

Sell below 1.1693. Stop loss is at 1.1722. Take profit is at 1.1583.

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USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has shot up perfectly and reached our profit target from yesterday. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.9530 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to at least 0.9436 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is right on major resistance at 95%.

Sell below 0.9530. Stop loss is at 0.9563. Take profit is at 0.9436.

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NZD/USD major support broken, time to start selling

The price has finally properly broken our key support level at 0.7423 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and we plan to sell below this level for a push down to at least 0.7332 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) has broken our ascending support-turned-resistance line signaling that a drop is expected.

Correlation analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both positively correlated. So, it is good to see a drop on NZD/USD and AUD/USD as that increases our conviction on this trade.

Sell below 0.7423. Stop loss is at 0.7461. Take profit is at 0.7332.

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AUD/USD sell below major resistance

The price is hovering below major resistance at 0.7969 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see a drop from this level towards 0.7841 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support). The trigger for this trade would be when price breaks our ascending support line. Our stop loss is kept at 0.8005 (right above big figure).

RSI (55) is seeing bearish momentum within its bearish descending line.

Correlation analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both positively correlated. So, it is good to see a drop on NZD/USD and AUD/USD as that increases our conviction on this trade.

Sell below 0.7969. Stop loss is at 0.8005. Take profit is at 0.7841.

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AUD/JPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

We prepare to sell below major resistance at 89.31 (Multiple Fibonacci extensions, swing high resistance) for a push down to at least 88.15 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 97% where we expect a reaction from soon.

Correlation analysis: AUD/JPY looks like it has a little bit of a further upside before a drop, and this is in line with what we're expecting on USDJPY's recent rally.

Sell below 89.31. Stop loss is at 89.66. Take profit is at 88.15.

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USD/JPY bounced up perfectly to profit target, remain bullish for a further rise

The price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area and is fast approaching our first profit target. We remain bullish above 111.38 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up towards 112.90 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is bouncing nicely off our 1.2% support as expected.

Buy above 111.38. Stop loss is at 110.64. Take profit is at 112.90.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 26, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF is still trading around the spot of 0.9525. The Swissy pair probably will continue to trade downwards from the level of 0.9525 again. Today, the first resistance level is currently seen at 0.9525, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9525 and 0.9400. So, the support stands at 0.9400, while daily resistance is found at 0.9525. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend around the spot of 0.9525. In other words, sell orders are recommended below the spot of 0.9525 with the first target at the level of 0.9400 and continue towards 0.9360 in order to test the weekly support 1 on the H4 chart. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the first resistance level of 0.9525 today, the market will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.9623 (double top).
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 26, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7333 and 0.7282. today, the price is in a bullish channel and the current price is seen around the minor support of 0.7413. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7333, which coincides with the 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7333. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7333. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.7333) with the first target at the level of 0.7414. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7414. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7414) to test it. If the trend breaks the support at 0.7414 (first resistance) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.7466 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the major support of 0.7282.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 26, 2017

The index is still alive in the bearish trend and remains consolidated below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. However, the current tone is still sideways and as long as the greenback remains above the support level of 93.71, it can be looking for the 200 SMA to correct the downside in a first degree, around 94.60. MACD indicator is entering the positive territory, favoring that scenario.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.09 / 94.88

H1 chart's support levels: 93.71 / 93.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.71, take profit is at 93.29 and stop loss is at 94.12.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 26, 2017

The pair managed to break above the resistance zone of 1.3027 and it seems the target is now placed around 1.3106. However, as GBP/USD remains well consolidated above the 200 SMA at H1 chart, we can expect further strength and the 1.3100 psychological level could be a feasible objective. To the downside, the nearest support lies at 1.2968.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3037 / 1.3106

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2968 / 1.2882

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.3106 and stop loss is at 1.2968.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 25, 2017

EUR/JPY is currently residing inside a corrective structural range between 128.50 to 130.70 area. Euro has been quite dominating over Yen for last few months which is expected to come to a counter move in coming days. Due to hawkish comments on the ECB Conferences and bad economic reports on JPY the currency pair has gained quite a good momentum on the bullish side. Today Euro German Import Prices report was published with worst value at -1.1% from previous value at 1.0% which was expected to show less deficit to -0.7%, German Ifo Business Climate report showed an increase to 116.0 from the previous value at 115.2 which was expected to decrease to 114.9 and Belgian NBB Business Climate showed less deficit to -1.5 from the previous value of -2.0 which was expected to be at -1.9%. On the JPY side, today BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were held where the future policies are hinted to be on hold without any future upgradation which affected the growth of the JPY gains today. Though Euro had mixed economic reports today and JPY had a negative sentiment on the market, EUR could not quite gain on the JPY as it was expected to be. The price is still in range and any positive JPY economic report could drive the price much downward in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing some bullish rejection inside the range of 128.50 to 130.70 area. As the price is currently above the 20 EMA and support level of 128.50 the range is expected to continue but if the price breaks below 128.50 with a daily close then the bias will be bearish with a target towards 125.80 support level in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 130.70 with a daily close further bullish pressure is expected in this pair with an upward target towards 132.25.

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Brent inspire disassembly of OPEC

After OPEC stopped paying attention to other people's drawn straws and admitted their respective faults, oil prices resumed growth. According to the Petro-Logistic research, the cartel increased its production of black gold to 33 million b/ d, which is 145, 000 b /d more than in June. Obviously, the root of all problems should be sought not in the U.S. States with their shale, but within the group of participants in the Vienna agreement. In this regard, the pressure on individual countries by Russia and Saudi Arabia can produce results. However, there are risks of getting discontent from the agreement, which will be an unpleasant surprise for the "bulls" for Brent and WTI.

Representatives of Riyadh during the St. Petersburg summit noted that reducing production is not a universal fix. OPEC continues to supply oil to the world market in almost the same volumes, as some countries have retained or are increasing the scale of exports. Thus, the production of black gold by the cartel in October-June decreased by 920 thousand b/d, while shipments abroad - fell only by 120 thousand b/d. As a result, despite the global reserves declining by 90 million barrels, their total number is still 250 million barrels higher than the five-year average of the indicator for the current time of the year. In order to set an example, Saudi Arabia is ready to reduce its exports from 6.9 million b/d in May to 6.6 million b/d in August. The recent figure is 1 million b/d less than last year's monthly maximum.

Moscow believes that the source of destabilization in the market are Nigeria and Libya, which should take an active part in the deal to reduce production.

If the cartel can solve its internal problems, normalize production and export of black gold, then against the background of growing global demand, the probability of restoring the "bullish" trend for Brent and WTI will increase. In particular, according to studies by the International Energy Agency, global demand for oil from processing companies in August will reach a peak of 81.4 million barrels. At the beginning of the car season in the US.. in May, it was around 80.1 million barrels. U.S. refineries will process a record 17.5 million barrels, which is higher than during same periods in 2015-2016.

The dynamics of demand for oil from US refineries

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Source: Bloomberg.

Positive for the "bulls" for black gold news came from China. In January-June, the Celestial Empire imported 212 million tons of oil, or 8.55 million b/d, which is 14% higher than in the previous year. According to the analysis of Sinopec, by the end of 2017, the import will exceed the level of 400 million tons. Simultaneously, Barclays frightens the "bears" with a view with a forecast of an increase in prices by $ 5-7 per barrel as a result of interruptions with supplies from Venezuela.

Technically, to restore the upward trend for the Brent "bulls", a successful resistance break is required at $ 50.1 per barrel.

Brent, daily chart

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for July 25, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair traded higher yesterday and settled above 111.00 barrier. The stochastic has clearly lost its positive momentum to reach the overbought areas. It forms a negative factor that may push the price to resume the bearish bias. The bearish wave may extend to target 110.15 areas in the upcoming period. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for today supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50. Breaching 111.65 followed by 112.32 levels will push the price to return to the main bullish trend again and shrug off the current correctional bearish pressure. The expected trading range for today is between 110.00 support and 112.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of gold for July 25, 2017

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Overview

Gold price managed to close the daily candlestick above $1,254.56 level which is a positive factor that supports extending the bullish wave in the upcoming period. Besides, the stochastic reached the oversold areas' thresholds, waiting to motivate the price to continue rising today. Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue suggesting the bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, reminding you that our next main target lies at 1295.37. To continue the suggested rise, gold prices should hold above $1,254.56 and 1,249.95 levels, as breaking these levels will push the price to test $1,229.32 areas again before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between $1,245.00 support and $1,265.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 25, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair remains affected by downward pressure, while supported by the stability of the main resistance at 147.63. Formation of initial resistance at 145.35 levels increases the possibility of a new negative attack. The nearest target is settled at 143.50 and it is likely to face the moving average 55; and a break of this level might extend losses to the critical support at 141.15. The stability of stochastic within the oversold level reinforces negativity in the near and medium period, which still provides the required momentum for achieving the suggested targets. The expected trading range for today is between 147.00 and 143.50.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 25, 2017

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Overview

The silver price did not show any strong moves yesterday fluctuating within a tight track confined between the key levels represented by the 16.20 support and the 16.56 resistance. We are waiting for a breach of these levels to detect the next trend clearly, until then we remain neutral. We remind you that a breach of the mentioned resistance will push the price to extend its gains on the short-term basis and head towards 17.43 as the next main station; a break of 16.20 will push the price to test the key support 15.49 before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between the 16.20 support and the 16.65 resistance.

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