Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 18, 2015

eurmonth.png

The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1,500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.

In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

In the meanwhile, further bearish decline can be hindered for a few weeks. On the other hand, bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1600 is highly probable now especially if the daily persistence above the level of 1.1250 is maintained for a few days.

eurusdaily.png

The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 allowed the market to fall dramatically shortly afterwards.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

A bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0650.

This applied a strong bullish pressure to the prominent supply levels at 1.1150 and 1.1240. Thus, bears failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

As anticipated, daily persistence above the levels of 1.1250 and 1.1350 enhanced the bullish side of the market.

The nearest daily supply level comes to meet the EUR/USD pair around the level of 1.1500 if the currently expressed bullish momentum is maintained above 1.1370 (corresponding to a previous weekly high).

On the other hand, the failure to close above 1.1370 indicates further sideways movement without significant bullish advancement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/NZD : analysis for May 18, 2015

EURNZDDaily18.png

EURNZDH418.png

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.5400 in a high volume. The short-term trend is bullish. According to the daily time frame, demand is in a volume just above average. It looks like that major resistance around the level of 1.5310 (Fibonacci retracement 50% and strong cluster) got broken. We may see possible testing at the level of 1.5450. Selling looks risky since we are in the bullish trend. I found support level around 1.5310 (resistance became support). According to the 30min timeframe, we got selling climatic actions (hidden buying).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5340

R2: 1.5370

R3: 1.5425

Support levels:

S1: 1.5235

S2: 1.5200

S3: 1.5150

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage since we are in bullish trend.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold : analysis for May 18, 2015

GOLDDaily18.png

GOLDH418.png

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,232.18 in a high volume. We can observe demand in a high volume but weak price action in the daily time frame. The short-term trend is bullish. The daily resistance at the level of $1,224.00 is on the test. If the price breaks the level of $1,224.00 in a high volume and strong price action takes place, we may see possible testing at the level of $1,250.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. I found support area around the levels of $1,210.00-$1,214.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,224.60

R2: 1,225.30

R3: 1,226.15

Support levels:

S1: 1,222.80

S2: 1,222.00

S3: 1,221.35

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities (buy on dips).


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 18, 2015

General overview for 18/05/2015 12:35 CET

The last five waves to the upside seem to be completed and market should reverse to the downside to continue to develop the wave C. The first confirmation of this scenario comes with a breakout of the level of 135.66 and the weekly pivot breakout to the downside. Then, the market should test the golden trend line, violate it and head into the first weekly support at the level of 134.87. Please notice that the bearish divergence is supporting the view.

Support/Resistance:

136.96 - Swing High

136.55 - Intraday Resistance

135.86 - Weekly Pivot

135.66 - Intraday Support

134.87 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

As long as the market is trading below the level of 136.55 daytraders should consider opening sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 136.56 and TP at the level of 135.66.

eurjpy_h1.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 18, 2015

General overview for 18/05/2015 12:15 CET

The bounce/reversal to the upside is a little muted as the price is still trading inside the bearish zone and below the golden trend line. The intraday supply zone between the levels of 1.2049 - 1.2065 is still putting a lid on the market and only an impulsive break out above this zone will be considered bullish and a real possible game changer for this pair. Please notice that as long as the price is trading above the key level at the level of 1.1978 there bias based on Elliott wave patterns is slightly bullish.

Support/Resistance:

1.1902 - WS1

1.1919 - Swing Low

1.1978 - Key Level

1.2018 - Intraday Support

1.2023 - Weekly Pivot

1.2052 - Intraday Resistance

1.2049 - 1.2065 - Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:

As long as the market is trading above the level of 1.1978 daytraders should consider openings buy orders from current market levels with SL below the level of 1.1977 and TP at the level of 1.2127.

usdcad_h1.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 18-22, 2015

gbpusdh1.png

Overview:

  • According to the previous events, the GBP/USD is going to move between the levels of 1.5724 and 1.5503 in coming days. Sell below the level of 1.5644, which represents the weekly pivot point in the H1 chart with the first target at 1.5553. Then, the trend will be able to continue toward the level of 1.5475 in order to test the major support. Also, it should be noted that the weekly support 1 coincides with 1.5475. The stop loss should be set above the last double top at 1.5767. In case of the upside character, the strength of the currencies will be defined as follows: EUR is in the uptrend and USD is in the downtrend.

Notes:

  • We expect a range about 325 pips this week.
  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.5603.
  • The weekly pivot point will be set at the price of 1.5644.
  • The level of 1.5724 and 1.5760 will confirm the bullish market.

The weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD pair:


Review:

  • If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
  • R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets as prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 and R3 or S2 and S3.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 18-22, 2015

The technical analysis of EUR/USD pair:

eurusd_pp.png

Overview:

  • Today,the key level for the EUR/USD pair has been set at 1.1466. This level is acting as strong resistance and it coincides with the ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart. Moreover, this level represents the double top in the same time frame. On the other hand, the second key level is likely to be set at 1.1348 (the weekly pivot point). Furthermore, the trend was very clear and was indicating a downward movement. Thus, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.1466, because sellers are asking for a high price. As a result, sell at the level of 1.1466 with the target at 1.1348. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.1338 represents the weekly support 1.
eurusdh1.png

Observations:

  • Major support sets at the level of 1.1336.
  • Major resistance has been already placed at the level of 1.1466.
  • We expect a new range about 93 pips today.
  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is in the uptrend and USD is in the downtrend.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX technical analysis for May 18, 2015

The Dollar index remains near its recent lows despite last week's attempt to breakout higher, but resistance at 94.20 turned to be too strong for dollar bulls. The Dollar index is forming a bullish wedge and I believe we are very close to a breakout above it. We should be waiting for bullish signals soon. The trend remains bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud but I believe that the Dollar is likely to reverse soon to the upside and start a new upward move towards 100-102.

usdx.jpg

Blue lines- bullish wedge

The Dollar index is below the cloud resistance at 94.80. The price is also inside the bullish wedge that is being formed. I expect the Dollar index to breakout this wedge to the upside and start a new uptrend. Short-term resistance is found at 94.20 and medium-term resistance is seen at 95.35.

usdxd.jpg

The weekly chart has pushed the price to close the weekly candle below the kijun-sen and very close to the 38% Fibonacci retracement. The 38% retracement is found at 92.30 but I believe that if the bullish wedge scenario comes true, we will not reach that level but reverse earlier. My longer-term view remains fully bullish targeting above 100 for the index.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold technical analysis for May 18, 2015

Gold price has broken to new higher highs today and is moving towards our target at $1,250-60 after breaking above the critical short-term resistance at $1,224. The longer-term view for Gold price remains bearish and this bearish scenario will be tested at $1,250-60.

goldh4.jpg

Orange lines - bullish channel

Red line = critical medium-term support

Blue line = short-term support

Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows. The price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and inside the bullish channel. Next target for Gold price is seen at $1,250-60. Support is at $1,212 for the short term but critical support is found at $1,185 for the longer term.

goldd.jpg

The weekly chart for Gold price shows how bulls have managed to hold above the tenkan-sen and the kijun-sen got violated. This is a bullish sign. However, this manages only to turn the longer-term trend from bearish to neutral. Gold price is approaching the resistance of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement now. In order to prepare a longer-term upward reversal, bulls are likely to need to break this level and also break above the cloud at $1,265.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 18, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair faced resistance around the 136.00/137.00 region and should be looking to produce a meaningful retracement lower before resuming its rally. The pair is seen to be trading around 126.75/77 and producing a stat doji on the H4 chart view. It is hence recommended to initiate fresh short positions with risk at the level of 137.50 now. Immediate support is seen at 133.00 followed by 132.00, 129.00, 128.00, and lower while resistance is seen at the level of 137.00 followed by 138.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate fresh short positions for now, stop at 137.50, a target is open.

Good luck!


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 18, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be trading at 1.4410/15 now after having tested the resistance trend line twice, as depicted here. The pair needs to break below the level of 1.4350 to accelerate further on the downside. It is hence recommended to remain short, with risk around 1.4630 now. Immediate support is seen at 1.4350 followed by 1.4150, 1.3850, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4650 followed by 1.4700, 1.4850, and higher respectively. Bears are expected to remain in control until prices stay below the level of 1.4600 from here on.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at 1.4630/50, a target is open.

Good luck!


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Silver for May 18, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver has raised through $17.70 levels today before retracing lower. The metal might have formed an intermediary high for now and could be looking to drop further lower towards the level of $16.40 before resuming its rally. It is hence recommended to book profits on long positions taken earlier. Aggressive trade setup could be initiated for short positions with risk above $17.95 for now. Immediate support is seen at $16.90 followed by $16.20, $15.80, $15.30, and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $18.40 respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on long positions taken earlier. Aggressive trade setup is to initiate 50% short positions, stop at $17.95/18.00, a target is open.

Good luck!


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for May 18, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has inched higher towards the level of $1,227.00 after breaking out of sideways consolidation earlier. The metal could be looking to at least retrace lower for now, before resuming its rally. It is hence recommended to book profits on long positions taken earlier. Aggressive traders could look to initiate short positions at these levels with risk around $1,230.00. Immediate support is seen at $2,297.00 followed by $1,180.00, $1,170.00, and lower while resistance is seen at the levels of $1,235.00/45.00 followed by $1,285.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on long positions taken earlier. Initiate 50% short positions, stop at $1,230.50, a target is open.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 18, 2015

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 93.29 versus 93.41 early Friday) after a worse-than-expected drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 88.6 in May from 95.9 in April (versus forecast 95.5) and bigger-than-expected 0.3% on-month drop in the US April industrial production (versus forecast -0.1% ), lower-than-expected capacity utilization of 78.2% (versus forecast 78.3%) and weaker-than-expected rise in the Empire State's business conditions index to 3.09 in May from -1.19 in April (versus forecast 5.0). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower US treasury yields (10-year at 2.141% versus 2.239% late Thursday) and Japan export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 119.95 and the second target at 120.15. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.05 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.75. The pivot point is at 119.30.

Resistance levels:
119.95
120.15
120.50

Support levels:
119.05
118.75
118.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 18, 2015

USDCHFM30.png

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. Upside movement is limited by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 93.29 versus 93.41 early Friday) after a worse-than-expected drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 88.6 in May from 95.9 in April (versus forecast 95.5), bigger-than-expected 0.3% on-month drop in the US April industrial production (versus forecast -0.1% ), lower-than-expected capacity utilization of 78.2% (versus forecast 78.3%), and weaker-than-expected rise in the Empire State's business conditions index to 3.09 in May from -1.19 in April (versus forecast 5.0). But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross and negative Swiss interest rates; the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9240 and the second target at 0.9295. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9060 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.8970. The pivot point is at 0.9140.

Resistance levels:
0.9240
0.9295
0.9345
Support levels:
0.9060
0.8970
0.89

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 18, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a three-day low of 0.7418 this morning. Kiwi sentiment is hurt after the New Zealand's government announced a new capital gains tax on residential property investments which would pave the way for interest rate cuts in coming months. NZD/USD is also weighed by kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the weaker dollar sentiment.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bullish, but the MACD is in bearish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7405. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7335. The pivot point stands at 0.7500. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7560 and the second target at 0.76.

Resistance levels:
0.7560
0.76
0.7650

Support levels:
0.7405
0.7355
0.73

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 18, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png

Fundamental outlook:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. But EUR/JPY gains are tempered by Japan export sales. It is supported by buoyant EUR/USD undertone and demand from Japan importers. Sterling sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected 3.9% on-month increase in the UK construction output in March (versus forecast +2.5%).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 187.3. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 186.65. The pivot point stands at 188.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 189.20 and the second target at 189.75.

Resistance levels:
189.20
189.75
190.35

Support levels:
187.3
186.65
186

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for May 18, 2015

EUR/USD: EUR/USD moved upwards by 300 pips last week; rising from the support line at 1.1150 and closing around the resistance line at 1.1450. There is a possibility that the price would go further upwards this week, as bulls target the resistance lines at 1.1500 and 1.1550.

1.png

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair dropped last week testing the support level at 0.9100. The outlook for this market is bearish for this week, especially in the face of the current strength in the EUR/USD pair (which would keep USD/CHF under selling pressure). Another factor is that CHF could get stronger this week.

This would also have effect on the CHF pairs.

2.png

GBP/USD: The optimism and positive sentiment emanating from the UK are the reason why the cable remains strong. As long as the price stays above the accumulation territory of 1.5600, there cannot be a serious threat to the existing bullish bias. Bulls may target the distribution territories at 1.5850 and 1.5900 this week.

3.png

USD/JPY: Swing and position traders would do well to stay away from this market, which has essentially been consolidating for several weeks in a row. The price oscillates between the demand level at 118.50 and the supply level at 120.50. It is only a break beyond any of the aforementioned demand and supply levels that would probably result in a clear directional bias.

4.png

EUR/JPY: From the demand zone of 133.50, this cross journeyed by over 300 pips upwards closing at 136.60 on Friday, May 15, 2015. The next movement of the price would be determined by the conditions of EUR itself; but right now, there is a clear Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 18, 2015

The cable has been extending the bull's footprint for the second consecutive week. The current week's macro data start on Tuesday. The CPI growth rate remains at 0 for 2 months. The recent fall in the oil prices is the major factor. On Thursday, retail sales and CBI industrial order expectations are due. The BOE governor Carney's speech falls on Friday.

Weekly technical analysis: bulls managed to close above 20Wsma for the second consecutive week. The cable approached the resistance levels. The nearest resistance is seen at 1.5830 100Wema and 1.5860 50Wsma. Last week, we noted the cable waiting minor correction. The pound crosses have been correcting. We advised the near-term top to be placed between 1.5800 and 1.5830 and a retest towards the support at 1.5550 last Thursday and Friday. The last week's high was made at 1.5815. As we expected, the cable shifted to a profit-booking mode. On a daily closing basis, bulls must close above 1.5775 to remain in play. Currently, we are still expecting the cable to touch 1.5600 or 1.5560 before moving up further. Weekly support is found between 1.5620 200DSma and 1.5550 200DEma.

Intraday technical analysis: Intraday support is found at 1.5700 and 1.5660. In the hourly chart, the cable made a triple top at 1.5815. Fresh buying is advised only in case the price erases the top. The bull's key level to hold is the level of 1.5640. A daily close below 1.5640 opens gates for 1.5620 and 1.5550 even 1.5500. On the bullish front, small trade above1.5785 towards 1.5815, 1.5830, and 1.5860 can be expected. Bulls must close above 1.5775 or bears must close below 1.5640 to get a decisive move until the pair consolidates between 1.5830 and 1.5640. We request bulls to wait for small correction or start buying for 1.6000 and 1.6200 in case of a close above 1.5860.

GBPUSDDaily.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USDX & USD/JPY for May 18, 2015

The recent soft US data has been punishing the USDX and USD related pairs for 2 months. The index made a high at 100.39 corrected 7% from the highs on March 2015. The index made a low at 93.13 last Thursday. A new week is bagged with major events like FOMC meeting minutes. Today, the FOMC member Evans's speech is due. It can have an impact on the USDX. Major events start from Tuesday when data on housing starts and building permits are due. The March US building permits has been declining for 3 consecutive months. On Wednesday, FOMC meeting minutes are due for release. Unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing index fall on Thursday. We expect positive data on jobs and Philly Fed. The weekend closed with CPI and core CPI. Ahead of the FOMC minutes, the USDX and USD related pairs are trading near the strong support levels. In our Friday's article, we took an opportunity to analyze USD/CAD trading near 200Dsma & 200Dema.

USDX

The index has been trading at the lower level of 93.13 for 3 consecutive days. The index is likely to make a double bottom at 93.13. The level of 93.13 is the 161.8FE entire fall from the peak. In case the price closes below 93.13, the next support is seen at 91.50 and 90.50 200Dsma and 200Dema respectively. Resistance is seen at 94.60 and 95.35 100Dema and 100Dsma respectively. Technically, until the price closes below 100dema & sma, bearish views remain in play. Today, the index opened on a bullish note.

USDXDaily.png

USD/JPY

The recent USD correction against JPY, CAD, SGD, and CHF failed to protect the bullish view in the near term. Only USD/JPY has been sustaining in the structural bullish view. As we expected earlier, the price is moving higher. The real problem for bulls is found at 118.50 100Dema. The pair is likely to make a double bottom at 118.50 and 118.30. We initiated buying in case we see the pair around 119.00 last week. We recommended buying between 119.00 and 118.60 sl 118.50 closing basis or 118.30 intraday. The pair made a high at 119.93 and erased 3/4th intraday gains. Today, the pair managed to recover Friday's losses within the Asian session. Intraday resistance is seen at 119.85 50Dsma. We expect this week's closing with gains. Intraday and weekly support is found at 119.25 2Wsma. At the Asian session, the pair held the 20Wsma and was trading higher. Weekly resistance is seen at 120.50 and 120.85. In case the price closes above 120.85, we expect 122.00 on the higher side. We have been recommending the same target for a while but they were not reached yet.

Support: 119.25 118.50

Resistance: 120.50 120.80

USDJPYH4.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 18, 2015

EUR/USD

Bulls have been enjoying a ride for the fifth consecutive week as well. The last week's rally was mainly led by German yields. German bunds rose faster compared to US yields. German yields rose for the first time in 15 months. Greece's Finance Ministry repaid a €750 million loan to the IMF last Monday. It was the only improvement took place in the recent days in the context of the Greek issue.

Weekly events:

A set of major economic data is due this week. Monday is a quiet day in terms of economic data. Tuesday is a big day on the euro. German Zew economic sentiment falls on Tuesday. It has been disappointing economists thought 3 months. Zew economic sentiment has been improving for 6 consecutive months. On Thursday, series of data are expected from France and Germany. The German final GDP q/q and German Ifo business climate fall on Friday. The Greece saga has been continuing. Greece has to reach a reform deal with international creditors by June. European commissioner Pierre Moscovici told the sides haven't agreed on proposals for Greek pension and labor reform. In Greek Finance Minister's words, terribly urgent issue is a liquidity problem in Greece. Greek exit from the eurozone is likely to influence the economy.

Weekly technical analysis: bulls managed to close above 20Wsma on a second consecutive week. The nearest resistance is seen at 1.1470 161.8FE and 1.1535. In case the price closes above 1.1535, bulls might aim at 1.1660, 1.1820/1.1875, and 1.1965. In case of the latter, we can expect 1.2000. The recent trend got changed because of a steep fall from the peak and the soft US dollar. Weekly support is found at 1.1165 20Wsma. The 100Dema is seen at 1.1300 and 100Dsma is found at 1.1195. The strong support base is at 1.1050. Until the price closes above 1.1195, a bullish view remains in play. On the higher side, bulls must close above 1.1535 initially to extend their path. We expected profit booking between 1.1480 and 1.1535 last Thursday and Friday. As of now, a high of 1.1467 was made.

Intraday technical analysis: Intraday support is found at 1.1390. The selling pressure will be applied below 1.1390 towards 1.1340, 1.1325, and 1.1275. The real selling pressure is expected below 1.1280 towards 1.1200. On the higher side, 1.1480 and 1.1535 are acting as strong resistance levels. As for the given support and resistance, bears can sell below 1.1390 with intraday targets at 1.1340 and 1.1325. On Monday, bulls must close above 1.1535 or bears must close below 1.1300 to get a decisive move until the pair consolidates between 1.1535 and 1.1300. Big trade is not available for bulls. We request bulls to wait for small correction or to start buying for 1.1660 in case of a closure above 1.1535.

EURUSDDaily.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis od EUR/CAD for May 18, 2015

The cross changed its direction from 1.3428 and probably made a double bottom. At Friday's session, the cross managed to breach the previous supply zone around 1.3765 but it was unable to close above that zone. The cross managed to close above 100Dema facing strong resistance at 100Dsma 1.3780. Today, the cross opened on a bullish note. The cross is trading on the verge of break (1.4020 initially). We initiated buying between 1.3450 and 1.3400 with sl 1.3385 dated May 13, 2015. In case the price closes above 1.3780, bulls will aim at 1.4000. Support is found at 1.3725 100Dema, 1.3650 61.8 FE, and 1.3484 50Dsma. Today, we expect the cross to touch 1.3800. Intraday support is found at 1.3690.

EURCADH4.png


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

CADJPY uptrend still valid.

CAD/JPY free-fall ended at the end of January 2015. Since then, the correction continued and the pair has been ranging between a low of 91.70 and a high of 96.79 for over two months. In mid-April, CAD/JPY broke above the established high of 96.79 with a big volume.

The uptrend line has been rejected over and over again, with the last time on May 7, where it bounced off the level of 98.48. In addition, the price broke above the ascending channel yet again adding more confidence to the already established uptrend. Looking for the Fibonacci plotted on the channel breakout point, after trading above the channel, the pair returned back to the breakout point – 50% Fibonacci (S1) where it formed a significant support level.

In the absence of fresh lows and evidence of the higher highs and higher lows, the growth is most likely to continue. Therefore, consider buying CAD/JPY around the current price targeting either R2 (101.00) or R3 (103.25). The different picture, that suggests a downside correction, should only be studied upon the breach of the S1 (98.48) support and/or daily close below 98.00, which is a psychological number.

Support: 98.48, 97.35, 95.96, 93.70

Resistance: 99.61, 101.00, 103.25

cadjpy-h4-instaforex-group.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 18, 2015

!EURUSD.jpg


When the European market opens, economic data on the Italian Trade Balance and German Buba Monthly Report are due for release.The US will publish data on the NAHB Housing Market Index. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1498.

Strong Resistance:1.1491.

Original Resistance: 1.1480.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1469.

Target Inner Area: 1.1442.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1415.

Original Support: 1.1404.

Strong Support: 1.1393.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1386.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 18, 2015

!USDJPY.jpg



In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, Revised Industrial Production m/m, and Core Machinery Orders m/m. The US is expected to publish economic data on the NAHB Housing Market Index. So, there is a big probabilitythat USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during a day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.28.

Resistance. 2: 120.05.

Resistance. 1: 119.81.

Support. 1: 119.53.

Support. 2: 119.30

Support. 3: 119.06.




Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/AUD 500+ pips growth potential.

Since September 2014, after testing the low at 1.7210, GBP/AUD has been steadily rising. Following that, the pair produced consistent waves printing higher highs and higher lows, which could be treated as a separate of the uptrend.

Having plotted the uptrend, the pair has been rejecting it on several occasions. But the downtrend has been penetrated exactly a week ago, suggesting continuation of the long-term uptrend. According to the Fibonacci applied to the downtrend breakout point, it is clear that the GBP/AUD pair broke above R1 resistance (1.9606) throughout the last week while the S1 support (1.9457) was only tested and remained valid.

Consider buying GBP/AUD around the current level as no clear signs of reversal or correction downwards are presented at this point. Fibonacci retracement indicator points at 2.0100 area as a potential target –R3 (2.0089) and could be used for profit taking if the uptrend continues. Only a break below S2 (1.9308) would invalidate this forecast and send the price lower.

Support: 1.9457, 1.9308, 1.9122, 1.8822

Resistance: 1.9606, 1.9792, 2.0089

gbpaud-d1-instaforex-group.png


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for May 18, 2015

The USDX is still trading lower and looking to reach the support zone of 92.64 on the daily chart. The current outlook still favors bears, but there are high odds of a rebound at that support level. Eventually, the USDX could test the resistance level of 93.95 again. If the USDX breaks that territory, it would be expected to rise until the psychological level of 95.00.

USDXDaily.png


On the H1 chart, the support zone around the level of 93.07 is still solid and we should see a test of the resistance level of 93.85 in the short term again, because bears have faced a strong barrier on that support. Anyway, the 200 SMA is still pointing downwards and this time frame is still favoring the downside, but nothing is for sure at the moment.

USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 93.95 / 95.00

Dailychart's support levels: 92.64 / 91.41

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.85 / 94.70

H1 chart's support levels: 93.07 / 92.37



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.07, take profit is at 92.37, and stop loss is at 93.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 18, 2015

GBP/USD is still trading higher, but currently is doing a pullback to the level of 1.5800. Now, the pair could start to form a bullish pattern on the daily chart. However, we're still thinking about the possibility of a turning lower in this zone, because the overall trend (in major timeframes) is still bearish and GBP/USD could find dynamic resistance at this point.

GBPUSDDaily.png


The H1 chart is showing a strong rejection at the resistance level of 1.5794 and that's why we expect some falls at the start of the week. Currently, trading against the H1 chart trend could be short with a breakout at the support level of 1.5706, with a target at the level of 1.5597, which is located near to the 200 SMA.

GBPUSDH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5907 / 1.6060

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5745 / 1.5543

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5794 / 1.5882

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5706 / 1.5597



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5794, take profit is at 1.5882, and stop loss is at 1.5706.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 18 - 2015

2015-05-18-EURNZD-4H.png

Technical summary:

We think the best way to count the price action since the top of 1.5247 is that an expanded flat is unfolding. In this case one final decline to just below 1.4913 should be seen before the next strong rally higher. In the short term, a break below minor support at 1.5221 and more importantly a break below 1.5104 will confirm the decline to the territory below 1.4913 before the next impulsive rally is expected.

That means we have to be aware that there is a small risk that the correction in wave (ii) ended with a wave c failure at 1.4970 and the next impulsive rally is already unfolding for a continuation higher towards at least 1.6335.

Trading recommendation:

We will wait for a EUR-buying opportunity around 1.4913.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 18 - 2015

2015-05-18-EURJPY-4H.png

Technical summary:

The rally continues to unfold as expected. Now we have a wave five rally from a low of 126.02 and ideally this final rally higher will stop near 137.54 before a larger correction of the entire rally of 126.02 is to be seen.

In the short term, support at 135.29 is ideally likely to protect the downside for the rally closer to 137.54. However, a break below support at 135.29 is expected be the first good indication that the first impulsive rally of 126.02 is over and a correction of the entire rally of this rally towards 133.08 should be seen.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our buying opportunity around 133.15 and as we are in the final stages of the rally from 126.02, we will be neutral for now.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com