"Kiwi" was the victim of softening the rhetoric of the New Zealand Central Bank, on the order of the "Aussie"?

mEtMtjWph_n9PrtZO62XTpZEGO73Pc8xVTHFGvaI

The New Zealand dollar fell against the US namesake to a maximum of more than two weeks after the Central Bank of the country announced at the end of the next meeting that the next change in the interest rate may be its decline.

SLMZwJfNqHfuKmLig4FckPdUVos19uZNNKJIxNkt

"Apparently, the RBNZ has joined the number of previously committed "pigeon" reversal of the Central banks. The reaction to this event of the currency market clearly shows that investors were taken by surprise," said Kay Van-Petersen, an economist from Singapore.

"The pair NZD/USD can test the mark of 0.6737 in the next few sessions, and definitely within a month," he added.

"The fall of the kiwi was a shock because of the announcement of future changes in monetary policy by the New Zealand Central Bank and had a downward pressure, in particular, on the Australian dollar," said Jason Wong, currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand (BNZ).

5teE9zknhJ_M9TM6El-nu_EkxRaYCTB01eeh68nx

The weak statistics on China also had a negative impact on the Australian dollar.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in January-February, the profit of industrial enterprises of the country fell by 14% on an annualized basis. The reduction was the most significant since October 2011.

China is the largest trade and economic partner of Australia and the buyer of its commodities. The slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy and the decline in imports from the Green Continent to the PRC adversely affect the Australian currency.

Next week, April 2, the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held. Most likely, the regulator will not change its monetary policy, but may soften the rhetoric by focusing on the possible reduction in interest rates. If the Central Bank will indeed follow such statements, then the Aussie could sharply fall in price, including against the US dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 27, 2019

BTC has been trading upward as we expected. All our upward targets were met. Potential overbought condition incoming.

analytics5c9b8fa6b7c5c.png

According to the H1 time – frame, we found that all 3 upward targets were met at $3.911, $3.936 and $3.975. Anyway, currently I see that there is 4-hour balance and bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator. We expect potential pullback in the next period. Support levels are seen at $3.967 and $3.951. Key resistance is seen at the price of $4.049.

Trading recommendation: We exited from our Long position on BTC with 3 targets reached. We are neutral now on the BTC but there is a potential for downside and potential testing of $3.967 and $3.951.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for March 27, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3200 but we expect the further upward movement and potential test of 1.3377

analytics5c9b8d44a0ab7.jpg

.

Our analysis from yesterday is still valid. Gold price remains in a bullish short-term trend. The supply trendline has been broken and price remains above 1.3220. The last couple of sessions price mainly moves sideways between 1.3157 and 1.3260. This consolidation might be followed by a new bullish momentum towards 1.3377. There is also a confirmed inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is another sign of the potential strength. As long as the support at the price of 1.3155 we remain bullish.

Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 1.3225 and with target at 1.3377. Protective stop is placed at 1.3140.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 27, 2019

Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.308.28. We are still bearish on the Gold.

analytics5c9b8a21d2d17.png

According to the H1 time – frame, we found the breakout of the upward trendline and most recently there is the breakout of the bearish flag, which is good sign of the weakness. Bearish divergence is still present the this only adds more on the downside. Key resistance level is seen at the price of $1.322.30. Support levels are seen at $1.303.15, $1.298.90 and $1.293.00.

Trading recommendation: We are still short on the Gold from $1.314.20 with targets at $1.303.15, $1.298.90 and $1.293.00. Protective stop is placed at $1.324.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: Why so much attention to the inversion of the yield curve?

The euro received some support and strengthened against the US dollar in the first half of the day after the speech of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who again identified the risks associated with a slowdown in global economic growth and the eurozone as a whole.

The ECB President noted that the slowdown in the economic growth of the eurozone does not necessarily foreshadow a serious decline, but the risks have increased in recent months, which leaves uncertainty at a rather high level. Let me remind you that the latest data on the euro area once again disappointed investors, signaling a weak economic growth rate at the beginning of this year.

Draghi also said he expects a gradual return to growth in potential, but the current balance of risks is still shifted in a negative direction. In turn, the ECB is aware of future risks and is ready to respond in the event of further significant deterioration in prospects. The President of the ECB once again drew attention to the fact that he does not have a shortage of tools to carry out the tasks assigned to him.

Given the lack of important fundamental statistics, an interview with Federal Reserve Bank President Dallas Robert Kaplan was published in the first half of the day, in which he stated that the Fed is too early to think about lowering rates. As noted in the morning forecast, traders and investors reacted positively to the quotations of futures on the Fed's rates, where the probability of their decline by the end of the year was estimated at 66% versus 72% at the end of last week.

Kaplan also pointed out that weighty bases are required to lower interest rates. And although the current inversion of the yield curve is one of them, the difference in profitability should be more significant and long lasting.

According to the representative of the Fed, to prove its constancy, the inversion of the yield curve should last for months, not weeks.

Under the inversion of the yield curve is meant the case when the yield of long-term treasury bonds becomes lower than the yield of short-term ones. Let me remind you that at the moment the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell below the yield on three-month bonds, and this market has not seen since August 2007. Are these the first signs of an impending crisis?

Closer to the afternoon, data on the US foreign trade deficit came out, which supported the US dollar and returned to the market the EURUSD pair sellers.

According to the report, the deficit fell sharply in January this year due to a significant increase in exports, while imports fell. This day can be recorded in the "piggy bank" of Donald Trump, who for a long time led the war, then the negotiations on trade with China and is trying to straighten the balance as quickly as possible.

d9LCwPL59UffS0nvHe2LOwhM3K3qQWOyVURy6krX

According to the US Department of Commerce, the deficit of foreign trade in goods and services of the United States in January 2019 decreased by 15% compared with December and amounted to 51.15 billion dollars. Economists had forecast a deficit of $ 57 billion. As I noted above, exports in January rose immediately by 0.9% compared with December, to $ 207.34 billion, while imports fell by 2.6%, $ 258.49 billion.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. As long as trading will be above support at 1.1250, the demand for euro will remain, but its breakdown will lead to a new wave of decline in risky assets, with the renewal of 1.1220 and 1.1170 lows. In the event of a persistent demand for the euro, sellers of risky assets will manifest themselves after the update of resistance 1.1290 and from a larger high of 1.1325.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on March 27. Traders are waiting for news on Brexit from the UK Parliament

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers are gradually returning to the market, entrenched above resistance 1.3212. As long as trading continues above this range, the demand for the pound will continue, which leaves a possibility for a continuation of the upward correction to the highs of 1.3261 and 1.3316, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a repeated decline of the pound under the level of 1.3212 on the news on Brexit, it is best to consider long positions on a rebound from the lows of 1.3162 and 1.3122.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears have missed the resistance level of 1.3212 and the main task for the second half of the day will be to return to this range. In this scenario, trading will continue on a wider side channel with an upper border of 1.3261 and a lower border of 1.3162. In the case of further growth of GBP/USD, it is best to consider short positions on a false breakdown from the resistance of 1.3261 or a rebound from the high of 1.3316. Important fundamental data on the UK economy is not expected today but the whole emphasis will be on the news about Brexit.

More in the video forecast for March 27

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-medium moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market. It is necessary to update new local maximums in order to sustain this trend.

Bollinger bands

The downward correction on the pound is limited by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3175.

6eNi7ho3BVAzllD-TkM7wfrtP5kgYYXdQZ-7HbpO

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 27. Speech by ECB President Mario Draghi supported the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The euro has slightly strengthened its position against the US dollar in the first half of the day after the speech of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who once again focused on the sufficiency of tools to support the growth of the eurozone economy. At the moment, buyers need to break through the resistance level of 1.1289, which was not possible in the first half of the day. Its breakthrough will lead to a further upward correction to the highs of 1.1324 and 1.1358, where I recommend taking profits. If in case the EUR/USD pair returned to the minimum area for the day to support 1.1251, it is best to consider long positions after the update 1.1224 or on the rebound from support 1.1198.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers coped with the task in the morning and did not allow the pair to rise above the resistance of 1.1289. The pressure on the euro will remain as long as the trade is conducted below this range but the main goal will be to break through and consolidate below support for 1.1251, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave and update weekly lows in the 1.1224 and 1.1198 areas, where I recommend taking profits. If the growth scenario is higher than 1.1289 in the second half of the day, short positions in EUR/USD can only be considered for a rebound from resistances 1.1324 and 1.1358.

More in the video forecast for March 27

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the preservation of the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The break at the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1251 will lead to a new wave of sales of the European currency. On the other hand, a break at the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1289 will support the euro.

JZwA3_XINDI6XMIw5rYdU2-ZiEMCLatTam3zclQv

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 27, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

analytics5c9b7add7b242.jpg

On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Shortly after, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure.

Last week, a bullish breakout attempt was executed above 1.1327 (the upper limit of the current demand zone). This enhanced further bullish movement towards 1.1450 demonstrating a false bullish breakout above the upper limit of the depicted movement channel.

On the other hand, On Thursday, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated around 1.1380 leading to the current bearish decline towards 1.1260.

The short term outlook for EURUSD pair remains bearish towards 1.1235, 1.1180 and .1140.

Bearish persistence below 1.1280 is mandatory to pursue towards the next bearish targets. Otherwise, another bullish pullback would be demonstrated towards 1.1350 once more.

Trade recommendations :

Based on previous recommendations, for those who sold the EURUSD around 1.1385 should lower their SL to 1.1290 to secure some profits.

RemainingTP levels to be located around 1.1235 and 1.1180.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 27, 2019 : GBP/USD demonstrating a bullish flag pattern for Intraday traders.

analytics5c9b78b908f45.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again on March 11.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBPUSD pair to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 1.3250 was needed for confirmation of a bullish Flag pattern. However, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250.

Hence, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3120 - 1.3100 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any immediate bullish support.

Bearish breakout below 1.3100 allowed quick bearish decline towards 1.3000 where the current bullish momentum that brought the pair back above 1.3200 was initiated (False bearish breakout).

Today, The price level around 1.3250 stands as an Intraday resistance/supply level that needs to be broken to the upside for confirmation of the depicted flag pattern bullish breakout.

On the other hand, bearish rejection around 1.3250 may initiate bearish decline towards 1.3180 then 1.3100 thus remainin within the current consoliation range.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders should wait for a bullish breakout above (1.3250) on H1 chart. Bullish projection levels to be located around 1.3320 then 1.3400.

SL to be placed above 1.3180.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar is strengthening, and the pound is waiting for an answer to the question: will Britain leave the EU or not?

analytics5c9b3e1b0780e.jpg

The dollar continues to strengthen against the euro and such defensive currencies like the yen, as traders ignored the weaker-than-expected US statistics released a day earlier. The US dollar index today is trading near 97.

xijf6aBtZjWt8ihMxtMprLj6IUSb7F2oC4HVmx49

The worst currency of yesterday was the euro. The pair EUR/USD slipped below 1.13, and then went to 1.1250. It is noteworthy that the weakening of the single European currency occurred in the absence of important statistics for the Eurozone, as well as against the background of the recovery of the yield of German state bonds. At the same time, the technical picture has slightly changed, and the main question now is whether the EUR/USD pair will once again break down the established range of 1.120-1.125, or, relying on the support of the Federal Reserve and the belief that the economic situation in the eurozone will not become worse, will try to develop an upward correction in the direction of the goal of 1.18?

2IQlDE4_cBCPjT-d0ATzpLzn4HYW-M2lxYVk-WMK

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair continues to recover, but the market still does not have enough energy to raise the dollar above 111 yen, since the yield of US Treasury securities remains under pressure. It is possible that if the rally continues at level 111, merchants may come into play. Today, a report on the US trade balance will be published. Last month, the negative balance reached a record high. Given that yesterday's releases could not hurt the dollar, you should not expect this from the trade data. It is assumed that in the short term, USD/JPY will be in the range close to the current one.

WxPzHpD3VJ7ORxM11RPa__wgQhSUHTXBMuoz4a3B

As for the British currency, it holds its position against the dollar in anticipation of "exemplary" Brexit vote in the British parliament. Today, the deputies of the House of Commons will meet to discuss whether to abandon Brexit at all, or to hold a second referendum in the country, or agree to break with the European Union without concluding any preliminary agreements. According to experts, the GBP/USD pair seems to have stopped responding to its fundamental background altogether and is waiting for an answer to the question: will the United Kingdom leave the EU or not?

"Holding early parliamentary elections and the "tough" Brexit could be "surprises" for the pound in the near term. In this case, one should expect increased volatility from the British currency," said MUFG analysts.

xqPLLFhvrTiSe_QQj8q2TuTIfvYv93FcgLkccmox

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. March 27. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The British Parliament can now dot the "and"

4-hour timeframe

ZvjXODP00arQ2-Qotxx257Lv3Mw8SCUhqLRFKRui

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 3.6560

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to trade along the moving average line and between Murray levels of 4/8 and 5/8. Today will be the next X day for the UK. All previous X days have been linked or initiated by Theresa May. Today, the scheduled voting on all sorts of options for Brexit were initiated directly by Parliament. Thus, we need to take our seats and watch what is happening. If earlier there were two main options for Brexit: the "hard" scenario and a deal with the EU. Now, the options "refusal from Brexit", "second referendum", "soft" Brexit have also been added. Yesterday, Theresa May's government has already blocked the demand of 5.5 million citizens who have signed the petition on the government's website, demanding the abolition of Brexit. What will happen tonight remains a guess? But we do not recommend doing this either. The chaos that now prevails in the UK can end in any way: even though Theresa May's resignation, even the formation of a new government, at least Brexit's rejection. Accordingly, in each of the available options, the market reaction will be different. Therefore, it is best to wait now for the results of voting in parliament. But! Even if parliament supports one or more options (this can also be, as the lack of support for all options), this will not mean that London will follow this path. These ballots are designed to show which option the majority of parliamentarians favor.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

R3 - 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues to trade near the MA. Today or tomorrow, a pair can again be thrown from side to side, since today there will be a cycle of important votes in Parliament, the results of which cannot be predicted, of course. Therefore, with the opening of any position, increased caution is recommended.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis for GBP / USD pair on March 27. Important ballots will take place today but how will this affect the pound?

Wave counting analysis:

_4WvDvjYHGEN-Km1tpCF3jhCzMdC3kJsyVpYmk7S

On March 26, the GBP/USD pair rose by 15 bp, not particularly pleasing with its activity in recent days. It seems that the markets lurked in anticipation of several parliamentary votes at once that should determine which version of Brexit do most parliamentarians support. Thus, I assume that today the activity of the tool until the evening will remain low. Based on the current wave pattern, we can assume the completion of the construction of wave 2 of a new downtrend trend. However, the evening parliamentary votes may lead to an unpredictable market reaction and the current wave counting may require adjustments and additions.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern allows for the construction of an upward wave with targets located near the estimated level of 1.3454, however, I recommend returning to this option only in case of a successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0%. A more likely development of events in the present is the construction of a descending wave with targets that are below 29 figures. However, both purchases and sales of the pair today are extremely risky since no one knows how to conclude the voting in the UK Parliament.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 27, 2019

analytics5c9b59329f595.png

Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3371. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.3371 (the level of 1.3371 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3401. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3371 followed by 1.3322, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3445. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3371 and 1.3445; for that we expect a range of 74 pips (1.3445 - 1.3371). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3445, which coincides withthe double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3445, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.3504 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3322.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis for EUR / USD pair on March 27. The euro suddenly began to fall again, while the chances of a rising wave remain

Wave counting analysis:

iDUrVnHDFvbSexLzvCtBa2_xHfgAJBA9WK7uh4Dd

On Tuesday, March 26, trading for EUR/USD pair ended by 40 bp and a successful attempt to break through the level of 61.8%. Thus, the estimated wave b takes a more complex form and in the long term, the entire downward trend section may become more complicated given the entire wave picture of recent months, which will lead to a rationale for a further decline in the euro. The most interesting thing is that the negative news background is not the reason for the decline in the euro, since there was no important news on Monday and Tuesday. Given the fact that the Fed abandoned the rate hike, it would be more logical to see the construction of the rising wave.

Sales targets:

1.1280 - 61.8% Fibonacci (small grid)

1.1240 - 76.4% Fibonacci (small grid)

Purchase targets:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair resumed building the wave b. Now, I recommend not to trade a pair but to expect a new signal to complete the current downward wave. For example, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 76.4% Fibonacci. At the same time, the breakthrough of the minimum of the supposed wave 5 will unequivocally indicate the complication of the entire downward trend section, which originated on January 10.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 27, 2019

analytics5c9b54f4ae08d.png

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9895 and 0.9948. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.9948 coinciding with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.9948. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 0.9948. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.9948) with the first target at the level of 0.9983. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.9983, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0036) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9895.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. March 27. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Euro falls again, now on a clean "technology"

4-hour timeframe

sWneLO-7Zj4hYynevabW3fp-x-zQxeRWErYP7qjn

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -129.6071

On Wednesday, March 27, the EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement, as we expected the day before. In the first two trading days of the week for the EUR/USD, there was no single significant news, not a single important macroeconomic report. Thus, traders could only rely on technical factors when making trading decisions. Today, representatives of the ECB will give speeches all day long, and a parade of performances with Mario Draghi will begin. It is to his speech that most attention will be riveted. Potentially, Mario Draghi could touch on monetary policy or America's claims to the EU. That is, it can potentially provide important information to the market that will trigger a reaction. But from America today, only a report on the trade balance for January is expected, which is unlikely to interest market participants. Thus, if Draghi does not tell the market anything of interest, then today technical factors will remain in the foreground. So the indicator Heikin Ashi will show intraday turns. Despite the fact that, in our opinion, the position of the euro has improved in the confrontation between the euro and the dollar, we should not rely on an uptrend before concrete technical grounds for this are obtained.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1261

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1200

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1292

R2 - 1.1322

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to consider sell orders with targets at 1.1261 and 1.1230. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a round of upward correction.

Buy positions can be considered no earlier than fixing the pair back above the moving average line with targets at 1.1353 and 1.1383 since the trend, in this case, will change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD and GBP: The market ignores weak US statistics. What are the possible scenarios for Brexit?

Despite a number of negative fundamental data, which was released yesterday on the American economy, the US dollar strengthened its position against the euro. Traders and investors reacted positively to the quotations of futures on the Fed's rates, where the probability of their decline by the end of the year was estimated at 66% versus 72% at the end of last week.

I recall that last Wednesday, the US dollar fell against a number of world currencies after the Federal Reserve System signaled that it did not plan to raise interest rates this year and is completing its program to reduce the balance of the Fed, hinting at lower rates if necessary.

As noted above, poor US data was ignored by the market. According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, the number of new home bookings in February fell by 8.7% compared with the previous month and totaled 1.162 million.

The number of building permits also decreased, by 1.6% per annum, and totaled 1.296 million. Economists had expected that the number of bookmarks in February would fall by 1.6% compared with the previous month, and permits would decrease by 2.6%.

Growth in house prices in January continued to slow, which will positively affect the spring sales season. According to the data, the national house price index S & P / Case-Shiller in January rose by only 4.3% compared with the same period of the previous year, after rising by 4.6% in December.

Given that mortgage rates will not increase in the near future, a slowdown in house price growth is a good sign. The Case / Shiller housing price index for 10 megacities in January increased by 3.2% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the price index for 20 megacities increased by 3.6%. Economists had expected the index for 20 megacities in November to show an increase of 3.9%.

Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond fell. According to the data, the Fed-Richmond manufacturing index in March 2019 fell to 10 points against 16 in February.

The traders ignored the weak report, which indicated that the US consumer confidence indicator fell in March. According to the Conference Board, the consumer confidence index fell to 124.1 points in March from 131.4 points in February, while economists had forecast that the index would amount to 133 points in March.

lnpn8uOqhj_yXp3SWF9bNzEnFBE2Dak5ofpKnKEu

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, now buyers need to urgently rehabilitate themselves. As long as trading will be above support at 1.1250, the demand for euro will remain, but its breakdown will lead to a new wave of decline in risky assets, with the renewal of 1.1220 and 1.1170 lows. If demand for the euro persists after the speech of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, which is scheduled for the first half of the day, the sellers of risky assets will manifest themselves after updating the resistance of 1.1290 and from a larger maximum of 1.1325.

Brexit

In the near future, a vote on Brexit scenarios will begin in the UK Parliament. The main options include a withdrawal without a deal, a request for a longer delay in withdrawing from the EU, accepting the deal proposed by Theresa May, maintaining the UK membership in the customs union and holding a second referendum on this topic.

Any option excluding exit without a transaction will be favorably received by the market.

A breakout of large resistance levels around 1.3260 and 1.3320 will resume the uptrend in the pound and lead to a test of the highs of 1.3440 and 1.3570. In the event of a negative market reaction to the news, large levels of support in the GBPUSD pair around 1.3080 and 1.3004 may limit the downside potential.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 27, 2019

analytics5c9b5375a0b14.png

Overview:

The GBP/USD broken resistance at 1.3221 which acts as support this this week.

The pair is moving between the levels of 1.3221 and 1.3382. As the trend is still above the 100 EMA, a bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside.

Consequently, the level of 1.3221 remains a key resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move upwards above 1.3221, which coincides with a ratio 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement.

The falling structure does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity above 1.3221, buy above this level with the first target at 1.3382.

Moreover, if the pair succeeds to pass through 1.3382, it will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to 1.3487 in order to test the daily resistance 2.

On the other hand, if a breakout happens at 1.3123, this scenario may be invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Central Bank waiting for the beginning of the crisis

The decision of the RBNZ was unexpected and logical. Earlier, the currencies of the Pacific region, particularly the Australian and New Zealand dollars received support in the wake of the steady growth of the Chinese economy and the world as a whole. Last year, their positions were somewhat shaken on the wave of the commencement of trade wars inspired by Washington around the world.

This was most clearly manifested in the conflict with China, the real and most powerful competitor of the United States. On this wave, he was the first to show signs of economic decline, which naturally hit exports to the PRC from Australia and New Zealand. The situation continued to remain generally positive for these countries but when it became clear that the process of slowing general global economic growth in particular Chinese, European and already American began to manifest itself with persistent consistency. First the Fed then the ECB signaled the problems and made it clear that one should not expect a tightening of monetary policies. Of course, the RBNZ could not fail to respond in this case, which was shown at the end of today's meeting by the decision not only to leave the key interest rate at the level of 1.75%.

In the wake of this message, the rate of the New Zealand currency went down sharply and falls exactly on one figure in tandem with the US dollar at the time of writing this article. The RBNZ decision also exerted widespread pressure on the Australian dollar, which fell by 40 points and the reaction of market players is understandable. They expect that the RBA will not stand aside and may come to the conclusion that it is necessary to lower rates in this situation.

Such a reaction of the Central Bank can be explained by the desire to get ahead of the possible process of starting to lower the Fed rates and a new round of ECB stimulus measures, which will make the New Zealand and Australian dollars attractive high and hit the export of these countries in the world market accordingly.

Evaluating the emerging picture, we note that the signal from the RBNZ is significant and indicates a change in sentiment in the Central Bank of economically developed countries. In turn, it demonstrates a rise in expectations among regulators, if not a new wave of crisis in the near future, then eventually transformed into a crisis.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is holding above 1.1250. We consider it possible to sell it with a target level of 1.1215 and then 1.1175 after a decline below this mark.

The AUD/USD pair remains in the short-term downtrend in the wake of fears of a continued decline in the growth of the global economy and as a result, there is a demand for commodity and commodity assets. We consider it possible to sell the pair with targets at 0.7065 and 0.7000 after its decline below the level of 0.7100.

85o1iAN79etchO56rPKu9OYM4eyzv_53-diJdt0j

Y2tOgTM08qrXBgq38IQkwpJPX6ZCjX1KJrUAX_Xw

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the foreign exchange market on 03/27/2019

The closeness of the result of confusing history with Brexit makes everyone very nervous. So much that when it is necessary to keep silent, the people's deputies of Her Majesty's subjects cannot keep their mouths shut. . Yesterday, when it was really worth settling down and thinking about everything, and most importantly, not to frighten the market participants with their thoughts about the problem of the expansion of the universe, few supporters of Theresa May said they would support the Prime Minister's plan. That is, they will insist on the adoption of the agreement, which imposes the Fourth Reich. It does not matter that the House of Commons has rejected this agreement twice, since there is not a single word about trade and the economy. Moreover, many parliamentarians rightly consider her a threat to the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom. It is clear that on this background, the pound began to grow steadily, but no one else wanted to develop this topic , and did not support the initiatives of the ardent adherents of the "Iron Lady - 2". Apparently, most parliamentarians are smart enough to keep silent when it is needed. Therefore, the pound failed to build on its success.

dN2087eQXU-53u2tiqwJuPiRvF5hKJN9AhQI_3OH

Moreover, the pound quickly began to decline following the single European currency, and the reason lies in the miraculous metamorphoses of American statistics. But the fact is that many investors were seriously frightened by the forecasts for the construction of new houses, the volume of which should have fallen by as much as 28.3%. That is more than a quarter. However, the actual data showed that everything is not so terrible, since the volume of construction decreased "only" by some 8.7%. So there is nothing to fear, and you can safely buy the dollar - the currency of a country that has already "become great again." On the other hand, investors exhaled and boldly began buying up portraits of the dead presidents of the United States.

0fan4q6Y0DD4c1gILgp9sIGLZ8Fgfy6v6G_qo6HO

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty, so nothing will prevent us from enjoying the battles that will soon begin to unfold in the House of Commons. The intrigue also lies in the fact that no one has any idea what exactly they will consider there today. One gets the feeling that even the people's representatives of Her Majesty's subjects are not particularly up to date. The Cabinet, headed by Theresa May, who was elegantly pushed towards by the House of Commons, has already managed to state that any decision made by parliamentarians is not binding, and the government will not support the decision to abolish Brexit. Unless, of course, the House of Commons decides to make such a decision. So what options can parliamentarians consider today? Options one is better than the other. The House of Commons, of course, can accept the proposed "divorce agreement", and this is the best case scenario at least for the pound and the single European currency, since only in this case, they will be able to find the strength to grow. All other options promise a steady increase in the cost of portraits of dead American presidents. Parliamentarians can reject the agreement, and then the UK can quickly begin to pack their bags, since on April 12, they will need to withdraw from the European Union without the "foreplay" in the form of a transitional period. There is the option of a second referendum, but then, if her Majesty's subjects vote again to leave the European Union, Brexit is postponed indefinitely. Although, only if the European Union agrees with such a statement of this question. Well, there is another option of abandoning Brexit, which is equivalent to political suicide to all those who vote for such a decision. As you can see, the options are just great. Well, the most interesting thing is that it is simply impossible to predict what will happen in the House of Commons. It is better to act on the results.

If the House of Commons nevertheless accepts the divorce agreement from the third time, the single European currency can rise to 1.1300. For any other outcomes, the single European currency is waiting for a decline to 1.1225.

v-cE7beVqY3yRyoaz4YdX5C2Zvkh0a-qHc4t5aFZ

The pound will be able to grow to 1.3250 only if the agreement is accepted. With all the other outcomes of battles in the House of Commons, we will have to go down to 1.3075.

YJswkNTksMz3NIkL1Q32UDZsz7e488w520Ivcqpd

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 27)

Over the past trading day, the currency pair British pound/ US dollar showed volatility just below the daily average of 103 points, as a result of continuing the fluctuation in a given framework. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation has clamped itself within the framework of 1.3170 / 1.3220, consistently working out the boundaries. As discussed earlier, the background information in the storm of passion Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May was literally suspended from the Brexit deal. At the same time, the Cabinet said that the government would not withdraw article 50. Thus, we will respect the results of the 2016 referendum and will work with the parliament to approve the deal that will ensure our withdrawal from the European Union.

VRGXoktbe3iYgcXvOeJGtbUoVgzEizLzV0xB5bGG

Today, the primary event is the election in the British Parliament, where it is literally incomprehensible what will be the voting be about: adoption of an agreement; Brexit cancellation; exit without a transaction; or a new referendum. At the same time, the head of government, Theresa May, will speak at a meeting today by 20:00 Moscow time in the so-called "Committee of 1922", which unites ordinary members of the Conservative Party, where she may call her date of resignation.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote continues to move within 1.3170 / 1.3220. It is likely to assume a temporary preservation of the current amplitude oscillation, but until the news about Brexit flies out. After that, we will wait for impulse moves. Traders, in turn, occupy waiting positions and focusing their attention on the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1.3170 / 1.3220 cluster.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

ovdT1Vbh8MXmB7S0CtuTCpT-IaLSOgCQecPmNHkA

- Positions for the purchase of traders are considered in the case of a clear price fix higher than 1.3250 (not a puncture).

- Positions for the selling of traders are considered in the case of a clear price fix lower than 1.3170 (not a puncture).

At the same time, we should listen to the information background, which clearly tells the direction of the speculators.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest against the background of convergence with the lower boundary of the cluster in the short and intraday perspective. On the other hand, the medium-term perspective has changed interest from ascending to neutral. It should be understood that the price is within the cluster, and intraday indicators on smaller TFs can vary arbitrarily.

2PGSEnhO1UCgvB6ZTIkLk7KiX6_yx1PsfllP-CzW

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 27 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 48 points. The volatility of the day will directly depend on the information background. Thereby, monitoring media sources is necessary, since the volatility can be high.

wM6rxpJevRLgkoYr50vzEPQrcM6v0GA9ynZxVk3o

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of EUR/JPY for March 27, 2019

The euro has been trading weaker against JPY recently despite the worse outcome of the Japan's reports and economic challenges. The economic slowdown and Brexit effect put the European currency under pressure.

Brexit may have a significant impact on the economy which may lead to further downward pressure in the market. Though the outcome of Brexit is still uncertain, it is possibile that the UK will have to leave the EU with no deal. It can exert an ominous effect upon the eurozone and the UK. Moreover, ECB President Mario Draghi is to leave office soon. It may lead to further volatility and uncertainty for the eurozone economy thus resulting in an economic slowdown. Additionally, Italy is preparing measures to boost the economic growth this year and may present mini-budgets along the way to get approved and worked on.

On the JPY side, Japan is facing export and import challenges which can cause certain weakness in the economy. At the same time, the BOJ is trying to reach its 2% inflation target. Japan has to rely heavily on imports for its energy requirements. Furthemore, the core consumer price index is affected by the dependency on oil prices. Besides, the US-China trade war dented the exports from Japan, and it also had an adverse impact on the economy. Recently, the BOJ Core CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5%. Meanwhile the SPPI increased to 1.1% from the previous value of 1.0% but failed to meet the expectation of 1.2%. Ahead of Tokyo Core CPI and unemployment rate reports to be published on Friday, which are expected to be unchanged, JPY is likely to struggle further in the process.

As of the current scenario, a slowdown in the eurozone is getting severe, so it can lead to further weakness in the process. At the same time, the yen managed to sustain its gains despite worse-than-expected economic reports. Ahead of Brexit decision on March 29th, any worse outcome is expected to lead to further gains on the JPY side while EUR may lose momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price managed to gain certain momentum, having corrected its movement after the recent downward pressure. Bears are still quite aggressive. They may continue pushing the price lower, but a pullback towards 125.00-50 resistance area is expected before the bearish trend continues to dominate further in the process. As the price remains below 125.00-50 area, the bearish scenario is expected to remain valid.

analytics5c9b0a0a3a36b.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 03/27/2019

On Wednesday and Thursday, the British Parliament appointed key voting options for Brexit - control over the process is now in the hands of Parliament - and we need to determine the option that has a chance to acquire a majority. The options are very different ranging from - withdrawing from the EU without an agreement - through a new agreement with the EU in the form of preserving full trading conditions according to EU rules - and to the complete abolition of Brexit and even a new referendum.

The pound and the euro, of course, are waiting for decisions.

EURUSD: There is a slight downward movement, we sell from 1.1270.

However, the downward trend will begin with a break downwards at 1.1175.

Alternative: Buy from 1.1335 and a trend above 1.1450.

Jfcdbu3RilApZf5KikWRNusqFNsSIxqUOUhcq2EC

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The world is preparing for a new economic crisis

At the moment, none of the major central banks are preparing to raise interest rates, the threat of a recession will contribute to a fall in market rates.

The change in the central banks' position to a more dovish stance caused the stock markets' growth, but this growth is less and less supported by fundamental factors. One of the main risk factors is the high growth rate of average wages, combined with a clear slowdown in the industrial sector and cross-border trade.

The decline in production will lead to the stock market's decline and the flow of assets into bonds, which, in turn, will further reduce profitability.

e2FYTzPc7SxeTYYrGgxwqBiJLvW1AEbP5fJkFTYk

There will be a new currency configuration by September. The ECB will begin to repurchase assets, offering loans on more favorable terms, the Fed will complete a reduction in the balance sheet; in China, growth rates are more likely to decline. The Fed needs conditions for stable growth in consumer spending, which can only be realized in a strong dollar. Under these conditions, the Fed is forced to maintain a strong dollar policy, which gives it an advantage against competitors in the medium and long term.

EURUSD

Conflicting information continues to emerge in the eurozone. After the publication of the failed PMI data on Friday, which clearly indicate a recession, the Ifo index informs investors about a completely different picture. The business climate index rose from 98.7 to 99.6 points in March, companies are more optimistic about business in the next six months, and even improved their assessment of the current situation.

p2VUHPK1hBQPsenZwe3nxDpCwSrYaEfP8zAcISM_

Markit and Ifo use the same sample of respondents for analysis (Ifo uses a wider sample), but gets opposite results. This happens very rarely and may indicate the presence of some factor that is not yet taken into account by existing research methods and is not fully recognized by the markets.

We have one clue - to a large extent, the growth of Ifo indices is due to the positive dynamics in the service sector, while in the manufacturing sector, expectations continue to deteriorate. Nevertheless, results of the research suggest that the ECB will not switch to panic mode just yet and has the ability to simply monitor the situation without the need for modifications. This is definitely a positive signal for the euro.

On Thursday, the European Commission will present its version of the development of consumer sentiment and the business climate, and by the end of the week there will be a block of information on the German economy, including preliminary data on consumer inflation and retail sales.

Technically, the euro is in a downward channel, an attempt to leave it up on March 20 ended in failure. The threat of a recession in the US is still less significant for investors than the ECB's TLTRO3 launch program, the details of which will be known by June.

The EURUSD is under pressure, quotes may decline to a support of 1.1175.

GBPUSD

Today, the British Parliament will hold a vote on different scenarios out of the situation in which the country found itself in following unsuccessful attempts to find a Brexit scenario that suits everyone. Most likely, the Parliament will consider all possible scenarios, which include both holding a repeated referendum and a withdrawal from the EU without an agreement, since Britain must be determined as soon as possible.

The EU has proposed two main scenarios. If Parliament votes for Brexit, then formally the procedure should be agreed before May 22. If the agreement is still rejected, the exit from the EU will be initiated on April 12.

The pound's reaction to two variants of the development of events can be just the opposite, and therefore, before the announcement of the voting results, GBPUSD will continue trading in the range. The negative scenario will pull down the pound to a support of 1.2960 and further to 1.2770, a positive one will provide an opportunity to issue a break above the resistance of 1.3380.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: the US debt market scares investors again

The demand for the American currency is growing again, in the wake of yet another concern about the global economic crisis. Following the deceleration of key indicators in Europe, the USA and China, another alarm came.

For the first time in the last 12 years, the yield curve for Treasuries with maturities of 3 months and 10 years was inverted: first, the yield of 3-month bonds coincided with the indicator of 10-year government bonds (at around 2.455%) and then exceeded this value. This fact alarmed traders who remember similar trends in the run-up to the 2008 crisis. Against the background of panic, the market became interested in the dollar again - this time, considering the currency as a protective tool. Even such possible prospects as the Fed rate cut did not scare off investors, as this decision would be a signal for the rest of the Central Banks of the world, including the ECB. Therefore, the situation in the US debt market has a broader impact not only on the dynamics of the foreign exchange market but also on the stock and commodity.

CdxSQ8vAYm5RRzLvd5IQvgKyzW9xyBmpqJeyQcld

According to some experts, the inversion of the yield curve is an early warning signal: the time gap between "lightning and thunder" is from 6 to 10 months. It is worth recalling that conversations of an impending recession over the past year and a half have arisen on the market regularly. For example, exactly a year ago, in March 2018, the yield curve was in the process of flattening (the difference in rates was narrowed): the differential of ten-year and two-year treasuries was reduced to 0.54%. In response to this fact, the EUR/USD pair fell by almost 200 points, from 24 to 22 figures.

Then, an impending economic recession was launched in December 2018 - the yield on 10-year bonds dropped to multi-month lows, and the yield spread on 10-year and 2-year treasuries dropped to its lowest level in more than 10 years. The narrowing of the spread between US short-term and long-term government bonds has been talked about earlier in 2016 and in 2017, expressing corresponding concerns. Then the spring expanded again, and the market switched to other fundamental factors. On the one hand, such an excursion into recent history allows today not to panic. On the other hand, it is still alarming that the American debt market is giving more and more frequent signals.

The situation in the stock markets of other countries also indicates a certain trend - government bonds with long maturities are becoming more expensive, while their yields are declining. In particular, the yield of 10-year German bonds for the first time in almost three years fell below zero. Similar trends are observed in other countries: the profitability of the Japanese 10-year-olds collapsed to two-year lows, in Australia - to five-year lows, and in New Zealand, this figure dropped below two percent for the first time in history.

Such dynamics are "fueled" by the soft rhetoric of members of the central banks of the leading countries of the world: the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, the RBA and the RBNZ — all of these regulators have stated that they either suspend the monetary tightening cycle or continue to wait. In addition, you can already hear the cautious assumptions about the mitigation of monetary conditions, such intentions are already quite straightforwardly voiced.

For example, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, following the March meeting, announced that it was rejecting the previous neutral forecast on the prospects for interest rates, stating that the rates would likely fall. New Zealander collapsed throughout the market, as many experts have suggested that the regulator will move from words to action in May. The US Federal Reserve also continues to demonstrate a pigeon attitude. In particular, Stephen Moore, whose candidacy Trump nominated for the position in the Board of Governors of the Fed, said yesterday that the American regulator should "immediately" lower the interest rate, and immediately by 50 basis points.

Thus, there is general nervousness in the foreign exchange market, which is associated with fears of a slowdown in the global economy and the risks of a repetition of the "2008 year". Against this background, the dollar is in demand, but its growth will be limited, due to the strengthening of the "dove" attitude of the Fed. Therefore, considering short positions in the EUR/USD pair, care should be taken in the area of the support level.

_fHKCr7AZm3tHMiiIxa0CuSRGRWlxIT-fsTmwW00

Now, a few words about technology. Technically, the price is below the "Parade of Lines" signal of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and between the middle and bottom lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. This indicates the dominance of the downward direction. The support level is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and the mark of 1.1205. The resistance level is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku indicator and the price of 1.1340.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on March 27, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, there is a high probability of a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.3135 is the rolling level of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

WRLeCwTaBgtWAkAiu5iT_sgciuO5Q-MaTVwt2yqI

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, there is a high probability of a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.3135 is the rolling level of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review March 27, 2019 for the pair EUR/USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target of 1.1241 is the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). In case of the breakdown of this level, there will be further downward movement with testing of the support line (blue bold line) which is 1.1224.

pK_VOQMMi4fGhAcfZ4IfUTcW7-g2jDrbJc-1bXtg

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target of 1.1241 is the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). In case of the breakdown of this level, there will be further downward movement with testing of the support line (blue bold line) which is at 1.1224.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD divergence on March 27. Forward to new lows?

4h

qOMbkGpVhRQM9bourVtu0fh3HTXzsTd8o3-vvuza

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair made a U-turn in favor of the American dollar and consolidation below the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.1269), after quitting the quotes from the retracement level of 38.2% (1.1328). As a result, on March 27, the process of falling of the pair can be continued in the direction of the next retracement level of 0.0% (1.1177). New emerging divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2%.

The Fibo grid is based on extremes of January 10, 2019, and March 7, 2019.

Daily

tTYHU4qy9IoLtqNEMf9DKU6j7E-_zpduf2Odh5Wm

As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair quotes returned to the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285) and closed below it. Thus, the fall in quotations may again continue in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.0941). However, overall, the pair continues to trade along with the retracement level of 127.2%. Maturing divergences today are not observed in any indicator or in any of the graphs.

The Fibo grid is based on extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1328 if the pair closes above the level of 1.1269. The stop-loss order should be placed under the retracement level of 23.6%.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177, as the pair completed closing below the retracement level of 1.1269. The stop-loss order should be placed above the Fibo level of 23.6%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD divergences for March 27. The pound continues to trade in the side channel

4h

clA5dhKLgWkdBUHdxg_-Wy2L-lNyW24cjhAe5gDX

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair canceled a bearish divergence, but the movement in recent days is "ragged" and unstable. The pair remains likely to return to the retracement level of 100.0% (1.3300), but with the same probability, it can make a fall to the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094). New emerging divergences March 27 is not observed. For a more accurate determination of the trend, we turn to the younger schedule.

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of the extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

yLHYQvACkHk7_FOMzV6yS3WTWltt8m-pYROpt6vU

As seen on the hourly chart, the pair made an attempt to break out of the area bounded by the retracement levels of 50.0% (1.3171) and 38.2% (1.3220), but still returned to it. The next rebound from the retracement level of 50.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British pound and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2%, and perhaps even higher. Closing the pair below the level of 50.0% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 61.8% (1.3121).

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of the extremums from March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.3220 and 1.3281 and a stop-loss order under the level of 50.0% if the pair completes another hang-up from the level of 1.3171 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3121 and a stop-loss order above the level of 50.0% if the pair closes below the retracement level of 1.3171 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for March 27, 2019

USD/JPY managed to gain bullish momentum after the price was rejected off the 109.50 support area with a daily close. The pair is expected to tarde under upward pressure in the coming days. Ahead of US GDP report, USD/JPY is set to trade with higher volatility with USD responsible for price gains.

USD lost momentum in March because the Federal Reserve confirmed its intention to put interest rates steady this year. Besides, a stream of weak macroeconomic reports from the US derived the market sentiment away from the US currency. After the FED raised rates 4 times in 2018, the regulator softened its rhetoric. In early 2019, the US central bank was considering at least 3 rates hike this year. According to FED member Bostic, there are also chances of rate cuts in 2019. Such a scenario is certainly bearish for the US currency. Tomorrow, US GDP report is going to be published. The economy is expected to decrease to 2.4% from the previous value of 2.6%. If the actual figure meets the expectation, it will be a precursor of a severe downturn in the US economy. So, negative data could incease volatility in the market.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan is currently facing mounting challenges as the officials are discussing a higher inflation target than 2%. Japan depends heavily on imports for its energy requirements. Thus, the core consumer price index is affected due to Japan's dependency on oil prices. On the back of the trade war between the US and China, Japan's overall exports have also been affected. Therefore, downbeat foreign trade caused weakness of the domestic economy. Recently BOJ Core CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5% and SPPI rose to 1.1% from the previous value of 1.0% but failed to meet the expectation of 1.2%. More important reports from Japan will follow in Friday such as Tokyo Core CPI and Unemployment Rate reports which is expected to be unchanged. So, JPY is expected to struggle further.

To sum it up, USD is expected to gain momentum while JPY is struggling for gains. JPY weakness was caused by downbeat economic reports. However, any negative reading in the US GDP report will increase volatility that might trigger a bullish counter-momentum in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above 110.50 after retesting the level as support. Dynamic level of 20 EMA is holding the price higher. The price formed a Pin Bar formation from the same area. As the price remains above 110.00-50 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 111.50-112.00 resistance area, though higher volatility may be observed along the way.

analytics5c9b0552cb992.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 27/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken above the orange trendline and tested the technical resistance level at 1.3258 and then suddenly reversed back below the trendline. This market behavior might indicate a false breakout, which is now a major reversal sign for the market participants. This is why the continuation of the down move is anticipated and if the level of 1.3145 is violated, the sell-off might accelerate towards the level of 1.3012 again.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.3650

WR2 - 1.3473

WR1 - 1.3340

Weekly Pivot - 1.3164

WS1 - 1.3039

WS2 - 1.2867

WS3 - 1.2742

Trading recommendations:

The market is now under the technical resistance and under the trendline, so the bias for the daytraders remains bearish and only sell orders should be opened as close as possible to the level of 1.3207 with a protective stop loss just above the level of 1.3258. The target would be the other side of the horizontal trading range, at 1.3012.

analytics5c9b2385a03d0.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EURUSD for March 27, 2019

EURUSD was very weak yesterday as price broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.13 and has made a new lower low towards 1.1250. Bulls were unable to break above the short-term resistance and the absence of a strong bounce has led to another selling round.

analytics5c9b2370e782a.png

Red line - major resistance trend line

Green line - support trend line

Blue lines - bearish channel

EURUSD remains inside the medium-term bearish channel after the fake breakout above 1.14 and is also creating a short-term bearish channel targeting 1.12.As long as price is below 1.14 medium-term trend remains bearish. Short-term remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1330. Price has broken below important Fibonacci support level and is now challenging the support at 1.1235. Breaking below it will open the way for 1.1140-1.1160.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for March 27, 2019

Gold price has pulled back from the recent highs at $1,324.50 towards $1,315. Short-term trend remains bullish with bulls targeting $1,350-60 area if they manage to retake the $1,333 resistance area.

analytics5c9b2204125fb.png

Red line - long-term support

Green rectangle - major horizontal support area

Blue rectangle - resistance area

Blue line - short-term support trend line

Red rectangle - target if price breaks above the blue rectangle

Gold price has been steadily rising making higher highs and higher lows since August of 2018. Gold price made an important high in February and pulled back towards our $1,300 target and lower. Price bottomed at $1,280 and is now challenging important resistance levels once again. Short-term support is at $1,310. This support if broken will not cancel any bullish scenario for $1,350-60 but will only postpone it. The major support and low at $1,280 is the most important level for bulls. As long as price is above that level the bullish scenario for $1,350-60 is alive. In the short-term there are high chances we see a pull back towards $1,300-$1,290 if we break below $1,310. Resistance is strong at $1,333 area. Bulls need to be cautious now. However there is still no reversal sign or confirmation shown. Trend remains bullish.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com