EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 27. The probability of US rate cuts has declined

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, the US dollar strengthened its position against the euro after the likelihood of lower interest rates in the US has dropped. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions in EUR/USD when forming a false breakdown around 1.1251, which may coincide today with the speech of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The main task of the bulls will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1289 with an update of a high of 1.1324, where I recommend to take profit. In case the euro further declines, purchases can be returned after the test of lows at 1.1224 and 1.1198.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears will try to push the support level of 1.1251, and the ECB president's speech can support this. Fixing below 1.1251 will lead to a new wave of selling the European currency with a test of lows in the area of 1.1224 and 1.1198, where I recommend taking profits. In case the EUR/USD increases in the first half of the day, the area of 1.1289 will be a good level for opening short positions, however, larger sales will be seen in the area of this week's high - 1.1324.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-medium moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Under the euro growth scenario, the upside potential will be limited to the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1290. A break of the lower border in the area of 1.1245 will lead to a new wave of the euro's decline.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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