EUR/USD analysis for August 04, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1872. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a buying climatic action in the background and supply came in, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a breakout of the symmetrical triangle, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1845 and 1.1815.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1900

R2: 1.1930

R3: 1.1965

Support levels:

S1: 1.1835

S2: 1.1800

S3: 1.1770

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar pleases Trump

In anticipation of the statistics on the US labor market, the main currency pair settled near the 31-month highs. The market reacted poorly to statistics on private sector employment from ADP, knowing that the main secret should not be looked for. Given the fact that the Fed is concerned about inflation, all investors' attention will be riveted to figures on average wages. However, on the sidelines of the Forex rumor, it is rumored that only a very strong positive surprise can save the dollar.

While the basic index of spending on personal consumption is near 1.5%, which is far enough from the target, the Federal Reserve can afford to pull the tires. The futures market only gives a 44% chance of raising the federal funds rate in December, so plans for the three acts of monetary restriction may not come to fruition. All of this plays into the hands of "bulls" on the US stock indices and "bears" in the dollar. Donald Trump, who said at the beginning of the year that a strong currency creates problems, may require an ovation, especially since it is not possible to open champagne on other occasions. Bills on changes in the health system do not pass. The implementation of the tax reform is in limbo, and it's the seventh month in power.

Politics exerts far more pressure on the dollar than other factors. It is unlikely that the "bears" at the USD index like a strong labor market or acceleration of GDP to 2.6% q / q in the second quarter.

As for the euro, the recent successes of this currency look excessive. Against the backdrop of sluggish inflation in the euro area (1.3%) and slowing business activity in July, the ECB is unlikely to begin to wind down QE earlier than the market expects. In addition, in 2018, the maturity of the bonds will reach € 120 billion, and in 2019 this amount will grow to more than € 200 billion. These resources need to be reinvested, that is, reducing the scale of asset purchases from € 60 to € 50 billion next year will mean that the European Central Bank has not lost a bit of its cheap money policy. But this factor was taken into account by the "bulls" for EUR / SUD.

The maturity of assets on the balance of the ECB

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Source: Financial Times.

It is clear that everyone wants to have time to jump into the last car of the northbound train, but large players can use the negative from the US labor market to fix profit on long positions. You can, of course, argue, saying that the Fed is still using the practice of reinvesting income. Nevertheless, the States tied with QE in 2014, and in 2015-2017 increased rates several times.

Technically, the outlook for the "bears" in EUR / USD looks hopeless. However, it should be noted that the pair's growth in recent days has been on declining volumes, which is a sign of weakness. In general, as long as quotes are above the support of 1.1725 (38.2% of the last descending long-wave), bulls retain total control over the euro. The nearest important resistance is located at around 1.215.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 4, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

The EUR/USD pair was trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1850 and 1.2000.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where price action should be watched for a bearish pullback and a possible SELL entry.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched if a bearish pullback occurs.

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USD/JPY analysis for August 04, 2017

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Recently, the USDJPY has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 109.85. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found inverted head and shoulders formation in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. There is also a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of potential strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 110.75 and 110.90.

Resistance levels:

R1: 110.65

R2: 111.25

R3: 111.65

Support levels:

S1: 109.65

S2: 109.25

S3: 108.65

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 4, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand-zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.7300.

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Trading plan 04/08/2017

The picture: Trends are not broken.

The major new for the week as of today at 12:30 am London time is the release of the official report on employment.

Yesterday, the Industrial orders showed strong + 3% which is higher than forecasts. However, the ISM service sector came in disappointingly low 53.9 in July with the forecast of 56.9.

The service sector from the US economy has at least 60%.

EURUSD

The uptrend still persists despite the strong retracement of pound on Thursday.

The purchase order is positioned at 1.1845 with the target of 1.1945.

In the case of a reversal, the stop is placed at 1.1800 which adjusted from 1.1780.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for August 4, 2017

USD/CHF has been quite volatile and corrective this week after the impulsive bullish move broke above the 0.9950 level recently. Today is a very important day of USD having major high impact economic reports to be published which are expected to provide further direction in this pair. Today's USD Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.2%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to decrease to 182k from the previous figure of 222k and Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease to 4.3% from the previous value of 4.4%. As of the forecasts of these reports, USD is expected to provide mixed economic report today but as of the market sentiment and bias, USD is expected to gain some strength taking the reports as a push in the coming days. On the other hand, CHF has been quite positive with its economic reports this week like SECO Consumer Climate report was published as expected at -3 from the previous figure of -8, Retail Sales report showed increase to 1.5% from the previous negative value of -0.8% which was expected to be at 1.3% and Manufacturing PMI also showed better figure at 60.9 from the previous value of 60.1 which was expected to decrease to 58.9. The positive economic reports did stop the USD to gain momentum this week but if today USD economic reports come better than expected we might see USD continue its gain towards 1.01 resistance level in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support level of 0.9550 and dynamic level support of 20 EMA which signals further bullish momentum in this pair towards the recent resistance at 0.9800 and later towards 1.01. As the price remains above the 0.9550 support level the bullish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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Global macro overview for 04/08/2017

Global macro overview for 04/08/2017:

The Bank of England decided to maintain the interest rate at the level of 0.25%, together with Asset Purchase Facility at the same level of 435Bln Pounds. Both decisions were in line with the market participants expectations. There was a 6-2 vote for the current decision from a 5-3 vote at the previous meeting (as expected). Hawkish member Forbes, who voted for a hike at the previous meeting, has left the committee while McCafferty and Saunders again voted for an immediate increase in rates to 0.50% level.

In the Monetary Policy Summary, the BoE stated that some tightening of policy will be required to meet the inflation forecast over the medium term and that policy could need to be tightened to a somewhat greater extent that the market expects if the economy meets forecasts. There were no changes in the inflation expectations since the last meeting, so BoE is still expecting inflation to reach at least 2.0% by the end of 2017. In the longer-term, the domestic inflationary pressures should even intensify but this situation will likely be caused entirely due to the effects of a fall in Sterling. Moreover, for the second time, the BoE stated, that bringing inflation back to target in the short term could be achieved only at the cost of higher unemployment an d a lesser growth in wages.

The overall tone of the report was rather dovish with little evidence at this stage that the bank is looking to consider a near-term policy tightening. This caused a sell-off in British Pound across the board from the recent highs.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market spiked down after the BoE decision but bounced from the navy trend line support around the level of 1.3113. Currently, the price is trading inside a narrow range between the levels of 1.3113 - 1.3161. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3190.

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Global macro overview for 04/08/2017

Global macro overview for 04/08/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has published its Monetary Policy Statement overnight and government agency released Retail Sales data. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the sales were release at the level of 0.3% which was better than expected 0.2%, but worse than the last month number of 0.6%. However, it was a third straight month of increase, which is a sign that consumer spending was making a strong comeback. Overall sales were up 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, official data showed.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said in its Monetary Policy Statement that GDP growth in the June quarter was "generally a bit stronger than in the previous quarter", and growth in the economy is likely to be around 3% in the first half of 2018. Nevertheless, in contrast to other central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn't given explicit forward guidance regarding the future of monetary policy. Unlike some other central banks, the RBA openly admits that it does not know what it will do with its policy rate in six, twelve or twenty-four months' time. The reason behind such a behavior might be apparently quite simple. In Australia, the economic shocks largely come from abroad and can often be driven by very volatile commodity prices. This is why publishing any longer-term policy path might be very misleading for the global investors and might cause an extreme and unnecessary volatility on the markets.

This RBA statement continued with a 'neutral' tone, with no hints that the RBA could hike rates anytime soon, but the most of the global investors are anticipating such a move at the beginning of 2018. In that case, the Australian Dollar will continue to appreciate against the other currencies across the board.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The recent top at the level of 0.8064 hasn't been tested yet, but the market is still trying to move higher. The market conditions are oversold on this timeframe, so any violation of the navy trend line will directly expose the recent high for a test and a possible breakout.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 04, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis has been hit. Now the pair is under pressure and expected to trade in a lower range. The pair recorded a succession of lower tops and lower bottoms, which confirms a negative view. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. The declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages are playing resistance roles and maintain the downside bias.

As long as 145.35 holds on the upside, look for a further drop towards 143.90 and even 143.35 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a long position is recommended above 145.35 with the target at 145.95.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 145.35, Take Profit: 143.90.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 145.90, 146.60, and 147.00

Support levels: 143.90, 143.35, and 142.75.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 4, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has gained 140 pips this week (having been going upwards within last several months). There is a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and further upwards movement is anticipated. Right now, the price is above the support line at 1.1850, going towards the resistance line at 1.1900.

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USD/CHF: The situation in this market has remained unchanged. This week, the price has moved between the support level at 0.9650 and the resistance level at 0.9700; and this is something that has caused the current neutrality on the market. For the neutrality to end, the price would need to go above the aforementioned support level or resistance level.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument experienced a considerable amount of pullback yesterday after the distribution territory at 1.3250 was tested. The pullback has taken price towards the accumulation territory at 1.3150; plus further upwards movement would result in removal of the ongoing threat to the recent bullish bias. Further movement to the downside would result in invalidation of the recent bullish bias.

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USD/JPY: This pair remains a bear market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Bear has made several attempts to breach the demand level at 110.00 to the downside – that is the aim of the bear. Once the demand level is breached to the downside, another target at the demand level of 109.50 would be aimed.

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EUR/JPY: This cross has gone above the demand zone at 130.50. There is a bullish signal here, which is invariably threatened by the bear. A movement below the demand zone at 130.00 would result in a return to neutrality, while a movement upwards from here would help save the ongoing bullish signal.

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Trading plan for 04/08/2017

Trading plan for 04/08/2017:

The quiet overnight session might indicate investors are refraining from entering positions before today's US labor market data. The strongest are commodity currencies: AUD is up 0.13% and CAD is up 0.09%. At the other end of the table, the NZD declines 0.09%. Crude Oil is down about 0.2% under the line at $48.90.

On Friday 4th of August, the event calendar is busy with important economic releases only during the US session. The Canada will release Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Participation Rate, Trade Balance and Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data. The US will provide Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Participation Rate and Trade balance data.

EUR/USD analysis for 04/08/2017:

The set of data from the US job market in form of Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Participation Rate data is scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. The market participants expect the Unemployment Rate to decrease from 4.4% to 4.3% (which was last seen in May and is the lowest rate during the current economic recovery), NFP Payrolls to decrease from 221k to 181k, Average Hourly Earnings should increase on monthly basis from 0.2% to 0.3%. The most important data are Average Hourly Earnings as the headline NFP number is not grabbing that much attention of the market participants. The reason behind this is that despite the otherwise strong last NFP report, wages did not increase much faster. Wages growth at 2.5% is still higher than the average 2% seen in 2012-15, but in current economic conditions, this is not that great, mainly due to the fact, that the inflation rate is also bit higher. Stronger than expected wages or NFP figure will likely cause some kind of relief rally for the US Dollar across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. There are two scenarios possible after the news is released. If wages will be better than expected 0.3% then a profit taking and spike down will occur on the EUR/USD pair as the current market conditions are highly overbought. However, if wages are worse than expected, there is a chance that the round number of 1.2000 will be tested, especially if any previous data will be revised down.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY test the support again

The price of Gold had bounced from the Fibo support at the level of 1,260 and now is trading just below the 78%Fibo at the level of 1,275 as the traders await the US job market report. Neither stochastic indicator, nor momentum indicator is not moving below their fifty levels, so any worse than expected data from the US will likely trigger another spike up towards the technical resistance at the level of 1,280.

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Market Snapshot: Gold bounces from 61% Fibo support

The price of Gold had bounced from the Fibo support at the level of 1,260 and now is trading just below the 78%Fibo at the level of 1,275 as the traders await the US job market report. Neither stochastic indicator, nor momentum indicator is not moving below their fifty levels, so any worse than expected data from the US will likely trigger another spike up towards the technical resistance at the level of 1,280.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 4, 2017

The NZD/USD is in a bearish short-term trend as long as price is below 0.7525. Price is making lower lows and lower highs since July 27th. I expect more Dollar strength to push this pair towards 0.73-0.7260 at least.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The NZD/USD is inside a bearish short-term channel. Channel resistance is at 0.7455. In this area, we also find the resistance by the Ichimoku cloud. So price has turned back up to back test the breakdown of the cloud....holding below the cloud will strengthen our bearish scenario for a move lower.

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In the daily chart we said in our previous post that since price broke down below the tenkan-sen, we should expect at least a test of the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). So this is what happened. Price reached very close to the kijun-sen and bounced strongly. A rejection by the tenkan-sen will increase the chances of a move to new lows towards the Kumo at 0.7260.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 4, 2017

There are important bullish divergence signs in the short- and medium-term. A downward sloping wedge pattern also suggests that soon the downward move from 112.15 will be over and a bounce will come with 111 as first target and 112 as next.

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Short-term resistance is at 110.50 and support at 109.60. The trend remains bearish as the price is making lower lows and lower highs. Price is also below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen.

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The bearish divergence in the daily chart implies that if a bounce starts now, we should expect the price to move towards 111.6-112. I do not expect the USDJPU to move past below 109 so, currently, the risk reward favors the upside.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning outlook: US Employment Report 12:30 London Time

Burning outlook: US Employment Report 12:30 London Time

Number of new jobs in the US in July - forecast +178,000.

Previous value of +222,000.

The forecast range is +144 +220 K.

Why is it important?

Employment and its dynamics are the most important factors of the state of the economy - along with GDP, inflation and interest rates.

It is obvious that the economy in a state of healthy growth when it generates new jobs. In contrast, while in a state of recession employment also falls.

The US economy is in a state of steady growth. +170 K is a good indicator.

However, to influence the Fed towards the direction of strengthening the policy of raising rates, you would need something more - for example, employment growth is higher than +220 K.

Our forecast is an attempt to increase the EURUSD rate above 1.1845 to 1.1950.

But in the event of a release of very strong data (above +220 K) - we will see a reversal and the euro will decline below 1.1780 towards 1.1680.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for August 04, 2017

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 04, 2017

Technical analysis of USDX for August 4, 2017

The US dollar index is near its yearly lows and inside the weekly support area of 93-92. The trend remains bearish. The key reversal level in the short term lies at 93. Oscillators are diverging, warning us of a strong bounce. Will the NFP provide the causation?

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Magenda line - resistance

The dollar index is trading below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators as well as below the downward sloping trend line. Resistance is at 93-93.15. The short-term support is found at 92.50.

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On a monthly basis the price has broken below the tenkan- and kijun-sen, approaching the monthly Kumo (cloud) support at 91.70. A bounce off 91-92 area could provide a bounce towards 98 if strong enough. However my minimum bounce target is at 95-96.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of gold for August 4, 2017

Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows. The trend remains bullish as the price continues to trade inside the upward sloping channel respecting the lower boundaries. A correction towards $1,250 is justified and today's NFP could be the reason behind such a pullback. However, my long-term view remains bullish.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Gold price is above both the Tenkan- and Kijun-sen indicators rising inside the bullish channel. There are some bearish divergence signs by both my RSI indicators and this is a warning for bulls to be very cautious. Support is at $1,260. Break it and we go to $1,250.

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On a daily basis gold is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and this is a good sign. The price pulled back towards the cloud and back tested the breakout successfully as it is now moving back towards its highs. Another test of the cloud is not out of the question. However, we focus on our longer-term bullish outlook and consider pull backs as new opportunities to add to longs.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 4, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for support near 1.5988 for the next rally higher towards 1.6236. Should a break below the minor support at 1.5988 be seen backup support, is located just below at 1.5830 and should be able to protect the downside for the expected rally higher?

Longer-term, even more, upside pressure remains expected towards 1.7298 and 1.8450 as the next upside targets.

R3: 1.6236

R2: 1.6154

R1: 1.6030

Pivot: 1.5977

S1: 1.5880

S2: 1.5830

S3: 1.5779

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5770. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5880 if possible and use the same stop at 1.5770.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 4, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more upside towards 133.46 and expect the correction from 131.40 has completed the test of 130.44 and the next impulsive rally higher to at least 132.00 and more likely closer to 132.97 before a sideways correction should be seen and then the final rally higher to the 133.46 target.

Only a break below 129.83 will confirm that a deeper corrective decline is unfolding.

R3: 133.46

R2: 132.22

R1: 131.40

Pivot: 131.00

S1: 130.65

S2: 130.45

S3: 130.00

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.75 with stop placed at 130.30 and take profit at 133.20.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 04, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Retail PMI, Italian Retail Sales m/m, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1939.

Strong Resistance:1.1932.

Original Resistance: 1.1921.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1910.

Target Inner Area: 1.1882.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1854.

Original Support: 1.1843.

Strong Support: 1.1832.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1825.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 04, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Average Cash Earnings y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.63.

Resistance. 2: 110.41.

Resistance. 1: 110.20.

Support. 1: 109.93.

Support. 2: 109.72.

Support. 3: 109.50.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD on pullback resistance, time to start selling

The price has broken a long term ascending support-turned-resistance line and we're expecting to see a nice drop from here. We look to sell below 1.3154 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, pullback resistance) for a further push down to at least 1.3058 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) has broken our ascending support line and is now expecting further bearish movement.

Sell below 1.3154. Stop loss is at 1.3191. Take profit is at 1.3058.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD remain bearish for a further drop

The price is approaching major resistance at 0.7962 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a drop from here towards 0.7875 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees a descending resistance line holding our bearish momentum really nicely.

Correlation analysis: We are expecting commodities weakness with AUD/USD and NZD/USD both expecting drops.

Sell below 0.7962. Stop loss is at 0.7995. Take profit is at 0.7875.

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NZD/USD testing major resistance, remain bearish for a further drop

The price has risen and is approaching our major resistance level. We remain bearish looking to sell below 0.7459 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further push down to at least 0.7333 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees a lot of resistance pushing it down really well.

Correlation analysis: We are expecting commodities weakness with AUD/USD and NZD/USD both expecting drops.

Sell below 0.7459. Stop loss is at 0.7500. Take profit is at 0.7333.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached for the 6th time, prepare to buy

The price has dropped perfectly to our profit target for the 6th time in a row. We prepare to buy above major support at 130.58 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a push up to at least 131.31 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees ascending support holding it up really nicely.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY.

Buy above 130.58. Stop loss is at 130.11. Take profit is at 131.34.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached for the 4th time, prepare to buy for a small correction

The price has dropped nicely and reached our profit target for the 4th time in a row yesterday. We prepare to buy for a small correction above support at 87.36 (Fibonacci extension, bullish price action) for a push up to at least 87.80 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing intermediate support above 10.14% where we expect a bounce from.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY.

Buy above 87.36. Stop loss is at 87.12. Take profit is at 87.80.

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USD/JPY approaching major support again, remain bullish

The price is forming a really nice bullish reversal signal above our major support. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 109.80 support (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, bullish divergence) for a push up to at least 111.59 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

RSI (34) sees bullish divergence signaling that a bounce is impending. The previous occurrence of such a bullish divergence led to a huge bullish rally.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY.

Buy above 109.80. Stop loss is at 108.67. Take profit is at 111.59.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 04, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair will probably continue to move upwards from the level of 0.7409 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend on the H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that, сurrently, the pair is moving around the spot of 0.7409. However, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7494 and 0.7557 followed by 0.7600, while the daily support 1 is seen at 0.7444 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7409 and 0.7600. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out the first resistance level at 0.7494, we could see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7600) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7490 with the first target at 0.7494 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7557 (the double top). On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7375. Hence, the stop loss should be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.7350 or 0.7330.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 04, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to a strong support at the level of 0.9579 (major support).
  • There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9763 or higher. Since the trend is above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (0.9579), the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.9575.
  • Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between 0.9579 and 0.9763. In the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9728 and 0.9763. Also, it should be noticed that the level of 0.9666 represents the daily pivot point.
  • Therefore, a strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9575 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.9728. If the trend breaks the support at 0.9728 (resistance 2), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.9763 in order to test the daily resistance 3.
  • However, the stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.9623.

Daily key levels:

  • Major resistance: 0.9763
  • Minor resistance: 0.9728
  • Intraday pivot point: 0.9623
  • Minor support: 0.9579
  • Major support: 0.9525
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Daily analysis of USDX for August 04, 2017

USDX remains in sideways and well supported by the 92.80 level. Overall, the picture is still bearish, as the index is trading below the 200 SMA and MACD indicator is favoring to that scenario to strengthen. However, if it breaks the range established since August 1st, the index could travel to test the 200 SMA at H1 chart around 93.35.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.49 / 94.00

H1 chart's support levels: 92.80 / 92.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.80, take profit is at 92.29 and stop loss is at 93.31.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 04, 2017

GBP/USD plummeted following BoE's decision to keep rates unchanged. The pair is now trading under pressure around the 200 SMA zone at H1 chart and it could provide some kind of dynamic support. However, as long as the bears keep active in the Sterling, one could expect another decline to test the 1.3058 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3257 / 1.3364

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3129 / 1.3058

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3257, take profit is at 1.3364 and stop loss is at 1.3154.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for August 3, 2017

NZD has been good with gains until recent employment reports hit the market making the currency lose some grounds against the USD in the bullish non-volatile trend. Recently NZD Employment Change report published with worse than expected at -0.2% which previously was at 1.1% which was expected to decrease till 0.7% whereas a negative outcome was quite unexpected which made the currency lose its recent gains. Along with this report, NZD Unemployment Rate report was published as expected at 4.8% which was slightly lower than the previous value of 4.9% but this did not quite help the currency to continue with the gains. Today NZD ANZ Commodity Prices report was published with a negative value at -0.8% which previously was positive at 2.1%. On the USD side, today USD Unemployment Claims report was published with a slightly better figure at 240k from the previous figure of 245k which was expected to decrease to 242k, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report was published with worst figure at 53.9 from the previous value of 57.4 which was expected to be at 56.9 and Factory Orders report showed good growth to 3.0% from -0.3% which was expected to be at 2.9%. Due to mixed economic reports, USD has lost some grounds against NZD ahead of NFP report to be published tomorrow. Currently, NZD is expected to gain further against USD in the coming days as the bullish trend still seems intact due to the non-volatile structure.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has recently bounced off the dynamic level support of 20 EMA after the worst reports of USD published today. Currently, the price is residing inside the support area of 0.7370-0.7460 and as the price remains above the 20 EMA and lowest support level of 0.7370 the price is expected to be bullish with a target towards 0.80 in the future.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for August 3, 2017

AUD/USD is currently going through the volatile corrective structure which seems to be paused the gain on AUD against USD recently. Due to recent AUD Cash Rate decision remained unchanged at 1.50% discussed at the RBA Rate Statement the currency is expected to be quite weak in the coming days. Today AUD Trade Balance report was published with the worst figure at 0.86B from the previous figure at 2.02B which was expected to be at least at 1.78B. Currently due to exceeding imports and decreased exports AUD is losing some grounds which is expected to be consistent in the coming days as well. On the USD side, today Unemployment Claims report was published with a positive decreased figure at 240k from the previous value of 245k which was expected to be at 242k, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report was published with worst figure at 53.9 from the previous figure of 57.4 which was expected to be at 56.9 and Factory Orders showed good increase to 3.0% from the previous value of -0.3% which was expected to be at 2.9%. USD has shown mixed reports with the economic reports today which was found quite positive ahead of NFP report being published yesterday. As of Unemployment Claims showing some positive change which is expected to lead to better NFP Employment Change report to be published recently. USD is expected to gain more against AUD in the coming days before the bullish trend continues to climb again in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently quite volatile and corrective ahead of NFP report tomorrow. Currently, the price is expected to reach the support area of 0.7750-0.7850 before proceeding higher towards 0.8050 with a bullish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains above the support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further in this pair.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUDJPY for August 3, 2017

AUD has been quite weak recently in comparison to JPY, which led to a drastic fall to 87.50 after an impulsive breakout. This week the RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statement were revealed, where the cash rate was announced to be unchanged at 1.50, which affected the growth of the currency against JPY recently. As the global economic boom is knocking at the door, most of the global economies are looking forward to a rate hike where Australia seems to be lagging showing no intention to have a rate hike in the recent future. Today Australia's Trade Balance report was published with a worse figure at 0.86B from the previous figure of 2.02B, which was expected to be at 1.78B at least. The weak report made AUD fall drastically today against the JPY. Trade Balance is the export demand and currency demand, which is directly related to each other; the worst figure showed lower exports and higher imports, which is bad for the economy. On the other hand, JPY has been quite stable with its recent economic reports showing unchanged and mixed economic reports in comparison to AUD. Tomorrow, Average Cash Earning report is going to be published. It is expected to show a decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%, but any positive change is expected to help JPY gain ground against AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of support level 87.50 and dynamic level support of 20 EMA as well. The trend is still bullish and a daily close above 87.50 will provide confirmation for further bullish move in this pair with a target towards the 90.50 resistance level. If the price remains above the 86.00 level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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