EUR / USD Preview of the week: Important statistics, Powell and G20 performance

Surprisingly, the euro-dollar pair did not lose its bullish momentum and continued to show growth at the opening of the last trading week of June. The US currency did not have time to play the "dovish" comments of the Fed representatives, who increased the confidence that the regulator would not stop at a one-time reduction in the interest rate. In addition, the conflict situation with Iran, as well as the ambiguous prospects of the US-China negotiations, are pushing the pair upward to the borders of the 14th figure. However, the current trading week is full of important events that either unfold a pair of 180 degrees or determine the course of the EUR/USD to the area of 1.1410-1.15520.

The Friday jerk of the pair under the curtain of the five-day trading session was due to extremely mild comments by the Fed representatives. Thus, a member of the Board of Governors, Lael Brainard, said interest rates in the future would be "at low" levels, in conditions of downward risks, including those of a political nature. According to Brainard, frustrating statistics indicate the need to mitigate further dynamics of rates. The focus of the Fed will be on inflation indicators, which recently showed "particularly weak growth."

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It is worth noting here that Brainard belongs to the so-called "dovish camp" of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, her comments should not have caused much excitement. But first, she has a permanent right to vote at the Fed, and second is her position was more or less shared by the other members of the regulator, who spoke on Friday. For example, Neil Kashkari proposed to reduce the rate by 50 basis points at a time. This idea is not new as it has rather been vigorously discussed among financial experts recently. The need for a soft monetary policy was expressed on Friday by both Mary Daley (FRB San Francisco) and Loretta Mester (FRB Cleveland). At the same time, each of them spoke about the importance of key macroeconomic reports that will add up to a general picture of a fundamental nature.

In this regard, Monday is almost empty: EUR/USD traders can pay attention only to the German indicator of the business environment from the IFO, which has been consistently declining for the past three months. If today shows growth, the euro will receive additional support, especially against the background of the positive dynamics of the PMI indices. Although, according to forecasts, the minimum decline is expected by 0.4 points.

But on Tuesday we will find out data on the growth of the consumer confidence indicator in the United States. After a dynamic two-month growth rate, the indicator can demonstrate a rather sharp decline from the level of 134 points to 132. Also, the indicator of housing sales in the primary market will be published on this day. For the first time in five months, this indicator showed a serious decline of -6.9%, hence the May figure will play an important role. On the contrary to the forecasts, if the indicator will remain in a negative area again, this will negatively affect the "well-being" of the US currency. Also on Tuesday, we will listen to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He will take part in the New York Economic Forum, where he will speak about economic prospects and monetary policy.

On Wednesday, all of the attention of EUR/USD traders will be focused on the indicator of the volume of orders for durable goods in the United States. The April figure showed extremely negative dynamics, dropping into the negative area (excluding transport to the zero level). In May, experts predict a minimum growth and the overall figure should rise to 0.0% (from the previous value of -2.15%), excluding transport to 0.1%.

On Thursday, the main macroeconomic news will come from Germany and the United States. In the United States, the final data on the growth of the country's GDP for the first quarter will be published. According to analysts, the indicator will be revised and be released at the level of initial estimates. As for German inflation, here the indicator should demonstrate minimal growth. In this case, the euro will receive significant support.

The most important day of the week is Friday. On this day, the G-20 summit will begin, where a meeting of the leaders of the United States and China will take place and although the summit will last 2 days (that is, we will find out its results already on Saturday), the parties can designate prospects for further relations on the last day of the trading week. Depending on the results of the preliminary negotiations, the market will either increase or weaken anti-risk sentiment. Both the dollar and the euro are awaiting the G-20 summit. Its results will allow traders to adjust expectations regarding the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, also focused his attention on the escalation of trade tensions, denoting the likelihood of monetary easing at the last meeting.

In the context of the EUR/USD pair, volatility will be reinforced by the release of important macroeconomic statistics. First, we find out the data on the growth of European inflation. According to the consensus forecast, the general consumer price index should remain at the April level of 1.2%, whereas core inflation may show growth and return to the 1% mark after falling to 0.8%. The main index of personal consumption expenditures will be published during the American session. He talks about the state of consumer demand in the United States and indirectly affects inflation. According to many experts, this indicator is monitored "especially carefully" by the Fed. In April, the index rose both in annual and monthly terms. But the May figures may be disappointing. Experts predict a fairly significant decline to the zero level on a monthly basis and to 1.

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In addition to macroeconomic statistics and the G20 summit, the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will be affected by the US-Iran conflict, which is still not solved. Over the weekend, the Americans carried out a cyber attack on Iran's computer systems to control the launch of missiles (after Tehran hit an American drone). According to the US military, the operation caused damage to Iran's military command and control systems but did not lead to the death of people or civilian casualties. In turn, the Iranians commented on the situation succinctly stating that "the US cyber attacks were not successful." Further escalation of this conflict will put pressure on the dollar, especially against the background of the "dovish" intentions of the Fed.

In the technical aspect, the EUR/USD pair is still on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on both the daily and weekly charts, which confirms the priority of the northern movement. If the pair on W1 overcomes the upper line of this indicator, the next resistance level will be at the bottom of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart, which corresponds to the price of 1.1440.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD pair on 24.06.2019

Focus of the market is on the Trump talks with Xi Jin Ping at the G-20 summit in Japan at the end of a new week.

The market expects the US and China to make a deal and this will end the protracted trade war launched by Trump.

On the optimism of these expectations, the markets are growing and the dollar is declining, as well as on the expectation of a Fed rate cut.

We keep purchasing from 1.1250 with possible kickbacks.

In the case of a full downward turn, sales from 1.1180 are suggested.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for June 24. Boris Johnson is eager to win the election

EUR / USD

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Friday, June 21, ended with an increase of 80 basis points for the EUR / USD pair. Thus, the markets received confirmation of the construction of the upward trend section, having made a successful attempt to break through the maximum of the expected wave 1. Given this reason, the instrument can continue to increase within wave 3 with targets located near the 100.0% - 161.8% Fibonacci levels by the size of wave 1. The news background has turned from neutral to positive for the euro in recent times. On Friday, 2 of 3 indices of business activity in the euro area were above market expectations, and 3 of 3 indices in the US were below Forex expectations. Today, there will be very little news, respectively, the market will not focus on fundamental factors. Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech and he may upset the currency markets again, as his recent statements concerned the possible easing of monetary policy and fears about America's trade wars with partners.

Purchase goals:

1.1417 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1480 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.1180 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro / dollar pair completed the second wave of the upward trend. I recommend buying Eurocurrencies with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1417 and 1.1480, which equates to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. The MACD signal down can mean the construction of an internal correctional wave in the composition of the upward wave 3.

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GBP/USD

The pair GBP / USD scored about 50 bp on Friday, and came out, therefore, to the highs of June 7 and 12. A successful attempt to break through these marks will indicate the readiness of the foreign exchange market to further increase and build an upward trend. The news background, in my opinion, remains neutral for the pound-dollar pair, since negative reports and data come predominantly from both the US and the UK. In America, these are weak economic reports and the dovish attitude of the Fed. In the UK, this is the same Brexit, for which there is no progress. Boris Johnson remains the main candidate for the post of prime minister of the country. If earlier this conclusion was made on the basis of his victory in the first election rounds among members of the Conservative Party in parliament. Now, the same conclusion is made on the basis of preliminary polls among local councils.

Sales targets:

1.2434 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.2359 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.2767 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument has changed and is now suggesting the construction of a new upward trend. At the same time, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the maximum of wave d, which confirms the willingness of markets to further increase, and build a correctional wave against the first impulse wave and only then buy the instrument.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 24. Before, buyers of the pound found the 1.2765 level difficult

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

A weak US dollar renewed the demand for the pound and pulled it to the highs of this month. The goal of the bulls is a major resistance of 1.2762, a breakthrough of which will provide good support to buyers, which will lead to a renewal of highs around 1.2800 and 1.2860, where I recommend taking profits. With a downward correction scenario, and this is more likely in the first half of the day, long positions in the pound can be viewed at a false breakdown from support 1.2723 or at a rebound from a low of 1.2687, where the lower limit of the ascending channel passes.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound sellers will try to keep the pair above the resistance of 1.2762, and the formation of a false breakout there will be a direct signal to open short positions against the trend based on a small downward correction to the support area of 1.2723 and 1.2687, where I recommend to take profit. However, more interesting levels for selling GBP/USD today are seen at highs of 1.2799 and 1.2858.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.2687, while a breakthrough of the upper boundary in the area of 1.2775 will lead to the continuation of the upward trend.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 24. Traders continue to buy the euro in the expectation of lower rates in

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Traders continue to buy euros in the expectation of lower rates in the US, but they forget that the ECB may resort to such a mechanism in the near future and then everything will go in the opposite direction. Today, the task of euro buyers will be the resistance of 1.1392, consolidating above which will lead to highs of 1.1427 and 1.1459, where I recommend taking profits. However, a more optimal scenario for long positions would be a downward correction and a false breakdown in the 1.1366 area or a test of a larger low of 1.1338.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

There is no expected release of important fundamental data for today that could limit the upward potential of the euro. The formation of a false breakdown in the 1.1392 area will be the first signal to sell EUR/USD with the aim of forming a downward correction in the support area of 1.1366 and the test of a low of 1.1338, where I recommend taking profits, as the lower limit of the current ascending channel is located just below this range. When the growth scenario is above 1.1392 in the first half of the day, large resistance levels can be seen in the highs of 1.1427 and 1.1459, from where you can sell the euro immediately to rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a bullish market.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1410 will act as resistance, while the downward potential in the pair will be limited to the middle of the channel in the 1.1366 area and its lower limit in the area of 1.1315.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Burning forecast 06.24.2019 EURUSD and trading recommendation

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EURUSD ended last week with a breakthrough to the top of an important level of 1.1350 and closed above this point.

This is a strong signal for continued growth.

Fundamentally, the dollar is falling on the Fed's promise to lower the rate - if necessary - and on the expectation of progress in US-China trade relations.

In terms of technical analysis, purchases of 1.1350 or below are possible.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 24/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The PwC consulting company offers a new cryptocurrency audit function as part of the Halo data audit package. The new tool allows users to take a closer look at cryptocurrency transactions, providing independent, significant evidence of linking the private key and public address to determine the ownership of cryptocurrency and collect information about Blockchain transactions and balances.

PwC currently uses this product to audit clients who make Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, Litecoin, Ethereum, OAX and XRP transactions. This tool is additionally offered to companies that do not have a direct relationship with PwC, helping them to implement the processes and controls they will need to obtain reports from their auditors, says the PwC press release: " It is important for companies to continue digitization. As auditors we keep up with technological changes on the market, we develop audit tools that meet the needs of emerging technologies and serve the changing and evolving requirements of our stakeholders " - said in a statement by James Chalmers, director of the global PwC audit department.

PwC works as an auditor at the Tezos Foundation and in Hong Kong as part of the Loorping Foundation project.

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD pair might have completed the five waves up at the level of $11,338 and is about to start the corrective cycle to the downside. So far the market is locked in a narrow range located between the levels of $10,3018 - $11,338 and any breakout below the lower support level will be a signal for a larget corrective cycle to start. Otherwise, the trend on the larger timeframe is still up and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,368

WR2 - $12,738

WR1 - $12,143

Weekly Pivot - $10,500

WS1 - $9,956

WS2 - $8,295

WS3 - $7,678

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larget correction is just around the corner, as all the major impulsive waves have been completed.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 24/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

A G7 task force is being set up to investigate how central banks can regulate cryptocurrencies, such as Facebook's Libra. Concerns arose regarding the compliance of cryptocurrencies with anti-money laundering rules, consumer protection principles, and other regulatory issues. The G7 task force will be headed by Benoit Coeure, who sits on the board of the European Central Bank: "We want to combine openness to innovation with regulatory firmness. It's in everyone's interest" - said Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the head of the French central bank.

The global reaction to Libra is diverse. Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve, said he saw the potential benefits and risks of the new project. Meanwhile, the president of the US Financial Services Committee urged Facebook to suspend development until an investigation was conducted.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $320.84 and then suddenly reversed to the level of $291.20. This kind of aggressive and dynamic volatility is nothing new on the crypto market, so it does not mean the trend will reverse now, but there is a possibility of a top for the wave (b) of the Irregular Flat correction to be made final. However, if the market will make another higher high the count will be invalidated. The main technical support is seen at the level of $288.61.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $399.14

WR2 - $359.00

WR1 - $340.76

Weekly Pivot - $299.53

WS1 - $285.30

WS2 - $243.70

WS3 - $227.28

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 24/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair is testing the key technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.2746 - 1.2761. The momentum is strong and positive, so the breakout is very possible and the next target is seen at the level of 1.2813. Please notice the market conditions are now overbought, so a local pull-back towards the level of 1.2725 or even 1.2668 might be made before the final push through the resistance. The larget time frame trend is still down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3080

WR2 - 1.2903

WR1 - 1.2852

Weekly Pivot - 1.2673

WS1 - 1.2612

WS2 - 1.2435

WS3 - 1.2368

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections. Nevertheless, please notice that the larget time frame trend is down, so all the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the downtrend.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on June 24, 2019

USD / JPY pair

Another yen breakdown in the second half of last week formed a double convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart. The target support of the trend line of the price channel at 107.02 is almost reached on the weekly timeframe. An underwater stone can lurk here as the price is quite capable of making a false dive below a trend line by 20-40 points, which will be enough to test the convergence of an oscillator in the classic version while touching the generator line and turning it upwards. In any case, the prerequisite for opening long trading positions is to move the price over the MACD line on the four-hour chart. At the moment, it is approximately at level of 107.86.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 24/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a new local high above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1347. The move higher was made on strong and positive momentum, so this might be the final breakout from the Ending Diagonal formation seen on the higher timeframe charts. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1400 and then at the level of 1.1445. Please notice the market is in the overbought conditions, so a pull-back is expected into the London open.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1662

WR2 - 1.1520

WR1 - 1.1459

Weekly Pivot - 1.1309

WS1 - 1.1258

WS2 - 1.1120

WS3 - 1.1064

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections.

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Control zones for AUD/USD pair on 24.06.19

At the end of last week, the strengthening of the Japanese yen resulted in going beyond the average weekly move. This makes it possible to search for favorable prices for the sale of an instrument after a corrective return. The main resistance will be 1/2 WCZ of 107.97-107.89. While the pair is trading below this zone, the probability of returning to the minimum of the last week is 70%.

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The correction zone of the 1/2 WCZ is within the range of the day average move, which makes it an ideal target for finding a pattern for sale.

For violation of the downward momentum will require the closure of today's trading above 107.97. This will lead to the formation of a new medium-term ascending model. The probability of the implementation of this pattern is 30%, which makes it auxiliary. Purchases from current grades are not profitable.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 24 - 2019

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After testing a low of 135.43 GBP/JPY has been testing short-term important resistance at 136.92 multiple times indicating a weakening decline and possible bottom for wave 2. We have now seen a more substantial break above 136.92 and look for a firm break above 137.18 too. A break above this resistance will be a strong indication that wave 2 now is complete and wave 3 to above 148.87 now is developing.

Support is now seen at 136.01 which should be able to protect the downside for the break above 137.18.

R3: 137.79

R2: 137.53

R1: 137.18

Pivot: 136.85

S1: 136.47

S2: 136.16

S3: 136.01

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 136.96 with our stop placed at 135.96

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 24 - 2019

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EUR/JPY failed to move below 120.75 and instead broke above minor resistance at 121.97 indicating a low. This means that that the decline from 123.18 most likely was the c-leg of an expanded flat correction as wave ii and wave iii could now be developing. We still need a break above the 123.18 peak to confirm that the wave iii is developing but if such break is seen, we should look for a strong impulsive rally in wave iii that ultimately should take us above 127.50.

Support is now seen at 120.92.

R3: 123.75

R2: 123.18

R1: 122.45

Pivot: 121.85

S1: 121.64

S2: 120.92

S3: 120.75

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 121.98 with our stop placed at 120.85.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 24,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Belgian NBB Business Climate and German Ifo Business Climate will be published. The US will not release any Economic Data today. So, amid the reports,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1442. Strong Resistance:1.1435. Original Resistance: 1.1424. Inner Sell Area: 1.1413. Target Inner Area: 1.1386. Inner Buy Area: 1.1359. Original Support: 1.1348. Strong Support: 1.1337. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1330.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 24,2019

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Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:107.93. Resistance. 2:107.72. Resistance. 1:107.51.Support. 1:107.25. Support. 2:107.04.Support. 3:106.83. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD for June 24, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro strengthened its growth, overcoming not only the high on June 7, but also the Fibonacci level of 76.4% (1.1356), showing the intention to grow to the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.1445, which almost coincides with the high of March 20. But since we consider the past week's growth as a speculative phenomenon, and what we mentioned in previous reviews, we are wary of this, and any other "bullish" goal.

Technically, the first signal for caution is the readiness of the Marlin oscillator of the daily chart to form a divergence. Divergence can also be formed when the euro rises to 1.1445, but for this to happen, the growth should be with kickbacks.

This week the main events will be the G20 summit, where the issue of US-China trade relations with China and the EU will be resolved (June 27-28), and the EU leaders summit on the 30th, at which the choice of head of the ECB will be decided. Prior to the first news, volatility is expected to be low. And as a result of reduced volatility, the technical aspect of the euro's growth remains the strongest.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 24, 2019

GBP/USD

Last Friday, the British pound made its way through the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel of the daily chart and now intends to continue to grow to the MACD line on the daily. The Marlin oscillator on both graphs does not provide reversal signals. On the four-hour chart, the price is above the balance lines (indicator red) and MACD (blue). A target of 1.2840 is open.

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Control zones USDCHF 06/24/19

Last week's strong momentum made it possible for the pair to reach the monthly control zone of June. This suggests the need to close all short positions. For further work in the direction of strengthening the franc, it will be necessary to form a correctional model, since the pair has gone beyond the weekly average move. The probability of returning to this range is 90%.

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Work towards the weakening of the Swiss franc will be corrective. This suggests the need to consolidate purchases at significant levels of resistance and the search for favorable prices for selling the instrument.

An alternative decline model has a low probability, which makes sales from current levels unprofitable at a distance. Work within the bearish impulse implies finding more favorable prices for selling the instrument. The presence of the pair within the monthly control zone indicates the possibility of the appearance of a large demand. This requires searching for pattern to buy the instrument. The simplest pattern is the "false breakdown" of the nearest daily or weekly lows.

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EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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EURUSD is approaching resistance where we might see a drop in price.

Entry: 1.1448

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.1493

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.1346

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal pullback support

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AUD/USD reversed off resistance, potential reversal!

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Price reversed off its resistance where we expect to see it drop further to its support at 0.6964.

Entry : 0.6934

Why it's good : 100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6988

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.6934

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support

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USD/JPY breakout, possible drop!

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Price has bounced up nicely.We expect to see a further drop from 1st resistance level.

Entry : 107.828

Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 107.047

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci Extension,horizontal swing low support

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for June 24

Forecast for June 24:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1452, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1388, 1.1353, 1.1334 and 1.1305. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the passage of the price of the noise range 1.1388 - 1.1404. In this case, the target is 1.1428, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1452. After reaching which, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1353 - 1.1334. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1305. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1428

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1452

Sell: 1.1353 Take profit: 1.1335

Sell: 1.1332 Take profit: 1.1305

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2906, 1.2842, 1.2798, 1.2713, 1.2688, 1.2636 and 1.2608. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2798 - 1.2842. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the movement to the potential target - 1.2906. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2713 - 1.2688. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2636. The range of 1.2636 - 1.2608 is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2798 Take profit: 1.2840

Buy: 1.2844 Take profit: 1.2904

Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2688

Sell: 1.2685 Take profit: 1.2636

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9847, 0.9824, 0.9790, 0.9769, 0.9723, 0.9688 and 0.9651. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 19th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9723. In this case, the goal is 0.9688. From this range, there is a high probability of going into the correction zone. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9651, but the movement to this value is considered as unstable.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9769 - 0.9790. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the target is the level of 0.9824. The range 0.9824 - 0.9847 is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9769 Take profit: 0.9790

Buy : 0.9792 Take profit: 0.9824

Sell: 0.9723 Take profit: 0.9690

Sell: 0.9686 Take profit: 0.9653

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.77, 107.54, 107.08, 106.65 and 106.35. Here, the downward structure of June 17 is considered as a medium-term initial conditions. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.08. Here, the goal is 106.65. For the potential value for the bottom, we still consider the level of 106.35. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 107.54 - 107.77. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the potential target is 108.12. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.55 Take profit: 107.76

Buy : 107.78 Take profit: 108.10

Sell: 107.05 Take profit: 106.65

Sell: 106.62 Take profit: 106.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3277, 1.3235, 1.3208, 1.3154, 1.3137, 1.3104 and 1.3069. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3154 - 1.3137. In this case, the target is 1.3104, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3069. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3235. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3277. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3233

Buy : 1.3237 Take profit: 1.3275

Sell: 1.3137 Take profit: 1.3106

Sell: 1.3102 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7039, 0.7012, 0.6972, 0.6959, 0.6927, 0.6913, 0.6892 and 0.6881. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6959 - 0.6972. In this case, the target is 0.7012, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7039. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6927 - 0.6913. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6892. The range of 0.6892 - 0.6881 is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure on June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6972 Take profit: 0.7012

Buy: 0.7014 Take profit: 0.7036

Sell : 0.6927 Take profit : 0.6914

Sell: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6892

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.27, 122.97, 122.53, 122.36, 121.97, 121.78 and 121.52. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of June 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after passing by the price of the noise range 122.36 - 122.53. In this case, the goal is 122.97, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 123.27. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 121.97 - 121.78. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.52. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.36 Take profit: 122.50

Buy: 122.56 Take profit: 122.95

Sell: 121.97 Take profit: 121.80

Sell: 121.76 Take profit: 121.52

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.04, 137.60, 137.30, 136.92, 136.40, 136.18, 135.77 and 135.32. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the potential for the top of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 136.92. In this case, the goal is 137.30.

Short-term upward movement is in the range of 137.30 – 137.60, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.04. The movement to which, is expected after the breakdown of the level of 137.60.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 136.40 - 136.18. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 135.77. This level is a key support for the top. Its price passage will count on movement towards the first goal for the downward movement - 135.32.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.92 Take profit: 137.30

Buy: 137.32 Take profit: 137.60

Sell: 136.18 Take profit: 135.85

Sell: 135.75 Take profit: 135.33

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. June 23rd. Results of the week. The Brexit epic is just beginning

24-hour timeframe

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All the attention of traders last week was focused on the meetings of the central banks of the EU, the UK and the US. As a result of the disappointing macroeconomic data from the US in the last three weeks, Jerome Powell's "moderately dovish" rhetoric and the Bank of England's neutrality, which took a wait-and-see attitude, the pound sterling has then managed to rise by around two cents against the US dollar. But the time of important messages from central bank meetings is already in the past, and the foreign exchange market has a question: what is next? We believe that the British currency can be strengthened for some time and this growth can even be worked out, since there is a "golden cross" from Ichimoku on the 4-hour chart, but in the long-term, there are no chances for strong growth in the pound. At least a month is needed for the UK to elect a new prime minister, who will be either Jeremy Hunt or Boris Johnson. The exit of Great Britain from the EU is scheduled for October 31, 2019. This means that the new prime minister will have an entire three months for new negotiations with Brussels (if they will, of course, take place), for a new agreement to be formed, which then will still have to be approved by Parliament. We know how it all happens slowly. The second option is simpler - a "hard" Brexit, but at the same time having serious economic consequences. The British pound with this option can fall down at a terrible speed. In general, support from the UK pound sterling is unlikely to wait in the next month or two. This means there is only hope if further disappointing data from overseas continue to flow. If this is not the case, the bears can return to the market on the pound/dollar pair.

Trading recommendations:

On the 24-hour timeframe, the current upward movement can still be considered as a correction. The nearest target for the purchase of the pound sterling may be the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud. Sales will again become relevant below the critical line with the aim of the first support level of 1,2397.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. June 23rd. Results of the week. The euro has grown by 2 cents in tandem with the US dollar for the week.

24-hour timeframe

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The third trading week of June ended unequivocally in favor of the euro. By and large, this was the most important week of the month for the euro/dollar pair, since it was the time for speeches by Mario Draghi, Jerome Powell, and the ECB and Federal Reserve meeting. Unfortunately, in June, in the confrontation between the Fed and the ECB, the score was 1: 1. Both regulators made it clear to the foreign exchange market that, if necessary, they are ready to lower the key rate and begin to stimulate the economy. However, if the "unit" of the Fed is confident, then the "unit" of the ECB is very weak. Firstly, the current interest rate in America is 2.5% and the Fed has room to reduce it, while in Europe the rate is 0.0% and any reduction means a transition to the negative zone. Secondly, the QE program in the US has been completed for a long time and there is no reason to resume it, in Europe it is the other way around - the stimulus program has been completed relatively recently, and Draghi allows for the beginning of its new phase, as well as the launch of a long-term lending program for commercial banks. Thirdly, inflation rates in the US and the EU do not reach the target, but in the European Union inflation is about 1% y/y, and in America around 2% y/y. So it turns out that the euro is growing, since the last three weeks of data in the United States are absolutely disappointing, both regulators are ready for easing, but the overall economic situation remains much better in the United States, despite the trade war with China. In general, we believe that while the upward trend persists, as evidenced by technical indicators, traders should work it out and not try to guess the pivot point and the resumption of the downward movement. However, the US dollar, from a fundamental point of view, continues to look more convincing and attractive.

Trading recommendations:

The trend for the euro/dollar pair has changed to an upward one, however, from a fundamental point of view, the dollar can regain its leadership at any time. If reports in the United States will cease to disappoint, then the traders will be missing the reasons for selling the dollar. At the moment, the target for longs is the resistance level of 1.1411.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com