Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 29/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

China is considering using Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence (AI) for cross-border financing, according to financial media.

Lu Lei, deputy head of the Chinese regulatory body of the State Currency Exchange Administration (SAFE), reportedly said that there are plans to use Blockchain and AI in cross-border financing, with particular emphasis on risk management applications. Lei noted that SAFE promotes the use of fintech and AI in international finance and macro-prudential management.

His pursuit of innovation is in line with the comments of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who recently urged the country to accelerate the introduction of Blockchain technology as the basis for innovation. Lei also emphasized the importance of risk management:

"We must pay special attention to the rapid development of digital finance and fintech. [...] If we are not completely sure where the (new) form of activity is going, we must pay attention to risk management" - he said.

According to Lei, efficient financial infrastructure serves as the basis for risk management. He also promised to open Chinese capital markets, including bonds, and consolidate investment channels for foreign investors.

Technical Market Overview:

The bullish rally on the ETH/USD pair has been capped at the level of $196.61 and a big Shooting Star candlestick pattern was made. The market has entedt a corrective cycle with a low made at the level of $172.91 and as long as it trades above the level of $163.11 there is still a chance for another impulsive wave up. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $188.93 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 4179.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $249.74

WR2 - $225.62

WR1 - $207.85

Weekly Pivot - $177.85

WS1 - $161.54

WS2 - $131.99

WS3 - $115.01

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 29/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

A court in the United States ordered Christopher Bania, who recently confessed to drug distribution, to give away nearly 17 Bitcoins - worth approximately $ 150,000.

According to a Wisconsin court order, Bania will have to hand over "About 16,91880054 Bitcoin confiscated from the Local Bitcoins exchange account. Although this amount is approximately $ 153,100 on the day of publication, it is far less than the 124 Bitcoins that the court returns to the defendant, along with various other cryptocurrencies, and over $ 50,000 in cash confiscated from his place of residence after his arrest.

Although he was initially charged with money laundering, import of controlled substances and maintaining drug ownership, the Bania settlement of September 6 concerned a single charge for possession of controlled substances with the intention of distribution, which entails a maximum of 20 years in prison.

Bania acknowledges the sale of cannabis, cocaine, MDMA and LSD on the dark web. However, he denies the distribution of methamphetamine and heroin, which the authorities also found in his home.

The US Border Patrol initially opened an investigation into Bania's proceedings after intercepting two parcels from Belgium containing MDMA. Investigators were able to trace the distribution networks used by the dealer thanks to his transaction notebooks, which court documents describe as "meticulous".

Technical Market Overview:

After the impressive rally, the BTC/USD market has entered a corrective cycle that is still being continued and is struggling to break through the technical resistance located at the level of $9,796. The zone from $9,645 to $10,278 is still a sell zone, where most of the sell orders have entered the market. The immediate support is seen at the level of $9,263. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,760 or even $8,474 before a new wave up will be made.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,033

WR2 - $12,095

WR1 - $10,995

Weekly Pivot - $9,057

WS1 - $8,029

WS2 - $6,062

WS3 - $4,932

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 29/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair is still being locked in a narrow horizontal range located between the levels of 1.2783 - 1.2865 as no major breakout occurred yet. The volatility gets very limited and market participants await a breakout in any direction, but on the other hand, the market might be making the Bullish Flag or Pennant pattern as well. Despite the neutral momentum, the bears are getting more active and try to push the prices lower towards the next technical support located at the level of 1.2783. The key technical support is still located at the level of 1.2561. The larger timeframe trend remains bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3149

WR2 - 1.3068

WR1 - 1.2923

Weekly Pivot - 1.2842

WS1 - 1.2710

WS2 - 1.2624

WS3 - 1.2478

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3000 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 29/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The bulls on EUR/USD pair are trying to get back into the ascending channel after the level of 1.1075 provided some king of bounce. This level is the technical support for the bulls, so any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support locates at the level of 1.1024. The volatility has slightly increased and the bearish activity is more visible. The market is still trading inside of the channel, the momentum is now slightly negative, but there is still a chance for another leg up after the correction is completed.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1242

WR2 - 1.1207

WR1 - 1.1134

Weekly Pivot - 1.1103

WS1 - 1.1028

WS2 - 1.0992

WS3 - 1.0922

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 29 - 2019

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Despite GBP/JPY moving higher we expect minor resistance at 140.74 to be able to cap the upside for another corrective decline towards at least 138.84 and likely even closer to our ideal target near 135.67. However, this target seems a bit of a stretch at this point in time.

Only a direct break above minor resistance at 140.74 will indicate that this correction has completed and a new impulsive rally to 144.98 and above already is developing.

R3: 141.51

R2: 141.12

R1: 140.74

Pivot: 140.21

S1: 139.74

S2: 139.26

S3: 139.07

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 135.75 or upon a break above 140.74

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 29. The pound ignores good news on Brexit, which is a clear signal for

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, the British pound ignored data on the granting of a deferral of Brexit on exit conditions at any time, with the approval of the agreement by the Parliament, although for buyers of the pound this is a very good signal. The lack of growth suggests the formation of a downward correction in the near future, especially in the conditions of such a smooth reversal of the market that we have been observing recently. Bulls today still need to return to a resistance of 1.2870, which will be a signal to open long positions capable of updating highs 1.2943 and 1.3012, where I recommend profit taking. If pressure on the pound remains in the first half of the day, then only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2807 will be a signal to open long positions. Otherwise, it is best to buy GBP/USD for a rebound from a low of 1.2735 or even lower, in the area of 1.2664.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound stops responding to good news, and yesterday's failure to vote on general elections confused traders even more, which could lead to profit taking on long positions. The next formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2870 will be a signal to open short positions in order to break the support of 1.2807, which was formed last Friday. However, a further target will be the level of 1.2735, a breakthrough of which will very quickly pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.2664, where I recommend profit taking. In the case of positive news from the EU, and a breakthrough of resistance at 1.2870, it is best to consider short positions in GBP/USD from larger highs around 1.2943 and 1.3012.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2830 will raise pressure on the pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 29 - 2019

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Despite EUR/JPY breaking above minor resistance at 120.80 we recommend to remain cautious as the corrective decline from 121.48 looks incomplete and the risk of more downside pressure towards 120.33 and likely even closer to our ideal target at 119.87 seems possible.

Only a clear break above resistance at 121.39 will confirm the completion of this correction and a new impulsive rally towards 124.64 and 129.50.

R3: 121.47

R2: 121.30

R1: 121.15

Pivot: 120.81

S1: 120.57

S2: 120.32

S3: 119.87

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 29. The market lacks benchmarks. Focus shifted to tomorrow's Fed meeting

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The absence of important fundamental statistics and yesterday's statement by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi did not make significant changes in the market, and tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Reserve on the contrary led to a sharp decrease in volatility. Currently, trading is conducted around the level of 1.1095, from which the market can move in either direction. Consolidation above 1.1095 will lead to updating a larger high of 1.1120, however, the main goal of the bulls will be a test of 1.1149, where I recommend profit taking. In case the pair falls on Brexit news, since data on the eurozone will not be published today in the morning, it is best to open long positions after a false breakout has formed in the support area of 1.066, or by a rebound from a low of 1.1026.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro sellers will be concentrated in a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1095, which will be the first signal to open short positions in EUR/USD, the purpose of which will be to support 1.1066. However, only consolidation below this level will allow the bears to more confidently continue their downward correction to a low of 1.1026, where I recommend profit taking. With good Brexit news, bulls may break above the resistance of 1.1095. In this case, returning to short positions is best done by a rebound from the larger highs of 1.1120 and 1.1149.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, October 29,2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released.The US will publish such economic reports as Pending Home Sales m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. So, amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1151. Strong Resistance: 1.1145. Original Resistance: 1.1134. Inner Sell Area: 1.1123. Target Inner Area: 1.1097. Inner Buy Area: 1.1071. Original Support: 1.1060.Strong Support: 1.1049. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1043. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, October 29,2019

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Japan will release Tokyo Core CPI y/y report. The US will publish such economic data as Pending Home Sales m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:109.55.Resistance. 2:109.34. Resistance. 1:109.12. Support. 1:108.86. Support. 2:108.65. Support. 3:108.43. (Disclaimer)

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What to expect from the Bank of Canada meeting

The loonie is very confident on the eve of the October meeting of the Bank of Canada. As a result of tomorrow's meeting between members of the Canadian regulator, the USD/CAD pair can either break through the support level of 1.3000 or return to the first resistance level of 1.3200 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). Judging by the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators, there are all the prerequisites for the loonie to continue to strengthen towards the greenback, especially if the Fed will disappoint dollar bulls with a softer position tomorrow.

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According to the general opinion of the market, the Canadian central bank will leave all the parameters of monetary policy unchanged tomorrow. Unlike the US regulator, whose members (most likely) will again lower their interest rates by 25 basis points - the third time this year. Such a correlation plays in favor of the loonie, however, both the Fed's rate cut and the Bank of Canada's wait-and-see attitude are already included in current prices. Further dynamics of the USD/CAD pair will depend on the further steps of these regulators.

As I mentioned above, Bank of Canada officials have every reason to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. In particular, the latest inflation data turned out to be quite good, although in some parameters the indicators went below forecast levels. The consumer price index increased by 1.9% in September (on an annualized basis): the indicator also showed a similar result in August. The core index, excluding gas prices, grew by 2.4% - at this level it comes out for the third straight month. Considering the structure of the general indicator, we can conclude that oil became the "anchor" of inflation growth - the price of gasoline fell by ten percent YOY, against the background of continued weak demand for "black gold". It also summed up the index of tuition fees - it fell by 3.6% due to the introduction of a special program at the level of Ontario, due to which the cost of education in this province decreased.

For other parameters, inflation indicators showed a positive trend. For example, for the seventh consecutive month, the index of purchases of cars is growing - in September it increased by 3.4% in annual terms. Food prices climbed (by 3.7% (year on year), for housing, transportation costs also grew. The index of cost of mortgage loans in September also increased significantly - by 7.5%.

According to some experts, the September inflation rate in Canada (+1.9%) is moderate. On the one hand, this is indeed so - many analysts on the eve of the release predicted stronger numbers. But on the other hand, it is worth recalling that the Bank of Canada itself expected a more modest dynamics of inflation growth - by 1.6%. Therefore, in this case, the published figures should be viewed through the prism of the prospects for monetary policy of the central bank.

As for the remaining key macro indicators, the situation here is controversial. In particular, the dynamics of GDP growth disappointed, but the latest data on the Canadian labor market were surprisingly strong. Contrary to neutral forecasts, the unemployment rate fell to 5.5%, and the number of employees grew by five times (!) Exceeded the forecast values, reaching 53 thousand instead of the forecasted 11 thousand. It should be noted here that this increase was mainly due to the growth in the number of full-time employees (+70 thousand), while part-time employment decreased by 16 thousand. This is a positive signal, including for inflation indicators, since regular positions require a higher level of salaries and a level of social protection. Wage growth rates accelerated to 4.3% from the previous value of 3.8%, signaling a strengthening of the wage scale.

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But the data on Canadian GDP growth, which were published in early October, made USD/CAD traders nervous. The indicator came out in the red zone, not justifying the forecasts of most analysts: on a monthly basis, the indicator was at zero level (with a weak forecast of growth to 0.1%), while in annual terms it dropped to 1.3% (with the forecast growth up to 1.4%).

Thus, in my opinion, the members of the Canadian regulator have every reason to maintain a wait-and-see attitude tomorrow, especially considering the results of the last round of US-Chinese negotiations. The updated economic forecast for 2020 is likely to reflect the negative effects of the global trade conflict, and the accompanying statement will focus on global prospects and trade uncertainty. But in general, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to deviate from the position announced in September. This fact may support the Canadian currency in tandem with the US dollar. But short positions should be opened for the pair only after the announcement of the results of the October meeting of the Fed: if they are not in favor of the greenback, the downward impulse of USD/CAD may increase. But otherwise, the pair will correct at least to around 1.3200.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 29, 2019

EUR / USD

On Monday, the euro corrected from support of the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1074) by 20 points, but at the same time maintained a declining mood. The movements of the marlin oscillator over the past two days coincide with the price movements, which indicates a neutral waiting position of the market on the eve of tomorrow's Fed meeting.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is still below the balance lines (indicator red) and MACD (indicator blue) and here the signal level is 1.1074, overcoming of which opens the way to 1.1025 - the MACD line on the daily scale.

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A trend reversal into a more significant growth is possible only after the price has consolidated above the MACD line (1.1135), then the immediate goal will be the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1154.

Releasing today, US economic indicators are projected in favor of the dollar; Conference Board consumer confidence index for October may show growth from 125.1 to 128.2, house prices in 20 largest cities in August are expected to rise to 2.1% YOY from 2.0% YOY , incomplete sales in the secondary real estate market in September may add another 0.9%.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 29, 2019

GBP/USD

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was once again defeated by Parliament - the EU agreed to extend Brexit until January 31, but Parliament voted against early elections. The Brexit situation finally became clear - the deal was, the pound closed the day with a moderate increase of 32 points. Investors can now focus on the Fed's policies and generally on US policy.

The Fed's rate cut at tomorrow's meeting, despite all the hype and market expectation of a 94% probability of this trim, is not so clear, as FOMC members have already expressed that the "low start" was too fast, its impact on the economy has not yet been assessed. Against this background, the recent increase in liquidity through REPO instruments may seem unnecessary, but since there have already been two reductions and a repo event, the third decrease can be postponed to December. In our opinion, this is the best option for maintaining stability in the markets - to declare a December decline without tomorrow's decline. As for the 95% expectation, which the Fed cannot ignore and "must meet", as it always has been, here we have the first rare exception - the nature or structure of the expectation is purely speculative, mainly created on the good performance of Services PMI on the 24th October and the miscalculation of the Fed itself, which failed to maintain communication with the markets.

On the technical side, we see a falling Marlin indicator, two-day trading in the range of Fibonacci levels of 110.0% -100.0%, that is, the market's readiness to decline rather than grow.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is developing under the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves along the boundary dividing the growth zone from the declining trend zone. The main scenario is to pull down the pound to 1.2744 with an attempt to consolidate below it.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 29, 2019

AUD / USD

On the daily chart, the Australian dollar was reflected from the balance line up with the closing of the day at 17 points. It would seem that the price is moving to the upper boundary of the price channel to the level of 0.6880, but the Marlin oscillator does not confirm this mood.

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On the four-hour chart, the price stopped at the resistance of the balance lines and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is a little above the neutral zero line and can easily return to the negative trend zone. In the main scenario, we are waiting for a price reversal from current levels and the price moving towards the first target of 0.6776 - to support the embedded line of the red price channel, near which there is also the MACD line of the daily scale.

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EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

Entry: 1.10670

Why is it good: horizontal overlap support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Take profit: 1.11650

Why is it good: Horizontal swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement

Stop loss: 1.09950

Why is it good: horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on October 29

Forecast for October 29:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1138, 1.1119, 1.1103, 1.1083, 1.1068, 1.1049, 1.1038 and 1.1013. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of October 21. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1083 - 1.1068. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 1.1049. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1049 - 1.1038. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1013. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1103 - 1.1119. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal here is 1.1138. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1104 Take profit: 1.1117

Buy: 1.1120 Take profit: 1.1137

Sell: 1.1083 Take profit: 1.1070

Sell: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1050

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. At the moment, the price has expressed a pronounced potential for the downward movement of October 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2959. In this case, the first target is 1.3035. The breakdown of the level of 1.3035 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2877 - 1.2810. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of potential for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 1.2625.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 9, the formation of the descending structure of October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3031

Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140

Sell: 1.2808 Take profit: 1.2717

Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2627

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9999, 0.9976, 0.9963, 0.9940, 0.9929 and 0.9909. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 18. Short-term upward movement, we expect in the range 0.9963 - 0.9976. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is a potential target - 0.9999, when this value is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9940 - 0.9929. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9909. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9963 Take profit: 0.9974

Buy : 0.9978 Take profit: 0.9999

Sell: 0.9940 Take profit: 0.9931

Sell: 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9912

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.39, 109.29, 109.13, 108.85, 108.72 and 108.53. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 23. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.13. In this case, the target is 109.29. Price consolidation is in the range of 109.29 - 109.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.58, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.85 - 108.72. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.53. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local structure for the top of October 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.13 Take profit: 109.29

Buy : 109.40 Take profit: 109.56

Sell: 108.85 Take profit: 108.74

Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.55

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3160, 1.3128, 1.3101, 1.3036 and 1.2989. Here, we are following the development of the downward trend of October 10. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3036. In this case, the target is the potential target 1.2989. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3101 - 1.3128. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3160. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3101 Take profit: 1.3126

Buy : 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3160

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3000

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6933, 0.6901, 0.6886, 0.6856, 0.6836, 0.6794, 0.6781, 0.6752 and 0.6722. Here, we are following the descending structure of October 22. At the moment, we expect to reach the level of 0.6794. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6794 - 0.6781. The breakdown of the level of 0.6780 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6752. Price consolidation is near this level, and there is also a high probability of a rollback to the top. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6722. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6836 - 0.6856. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the formation of an ascending structure. Here, the potential target is 0.6886.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6836 Take profit: 0.6854

Buy: 0.6858 Take profit: 0.6886

Sell : 0.6780 Take profit : 0.6752

Sell: 0.6750 Take profit: 0.6724

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.79, 121.34, 121.03, 120.61, 120.28, 119.92 and 119.64. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state and forms the potential for the downward movement of October 21. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.03 - 121.34. The breakdown of the level of 121.35 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.79. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.79 - 121.95. From here, we expect a correction.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 120.61 - 120.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.92. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first goal is 119.64.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 15 and the formation of potential for the bottom of October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.34

Buy: 121.36 Take profit: 121.76

Sell: 120.25 Take profit: 119.94

Sell: 119.90 Take profit: 119.66

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state and currently forms a potential for the bottom of October 21. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75

Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY - DAILY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options on November 2019. Analysis

November 2019 is getting near. Thus, we will consider the DAILY movement options - #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY in a comprehensive form.

Minor operational scale (Daily Time Frame)

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US dollar Index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX on November 2019 will receive its development depending on the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 98.15 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 97.70 (the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks).

Combined breakdown of support levels :

- 97.70 (ISL38.2 Minuette);

- 97.50 (the initial line of SSL Minor operating scale forks);

will confirm that the development of the movement of the dollar index will again occur within the equilibrium zones (97.70 - 97.15 - 96.60) of the Minuette operational scale forks, and in case of breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (96.60), it will become possible for the price of this currency instrument to reach the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minor (96.45) and local minimum 85.84.

With the breakdown of resistance level of 98.15, the development of the #USDX movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (98.15 - 98.55 - 98.90) with the prospect of reaching the UTL control line (99.30) of the Minor operational scale forks and updating the maximum 99.67.

The markup of #USDX movement options on November 2019 is shown in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

Direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1115 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 1.1055 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks);

will determine the further development trend of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD on November 2019.

Combined breakdown of resistance levels :

- 1.1115 (ISL38.2 Minuette);

- 1.1140 (1/2 Median Line Minor);

will confirm the return of the single European currency to the equilibrium zones (1.1115 - 1.1180 - 1.1250) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the development of movement in this zone, with the prospect (after the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette - 1.1250) of continuing the development of the upward movement to maximum 1.1412.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.1055, the development of the EUR / USD movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1055 - 1.1010 - 1.0960) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL Minuette line (1.0895) and updating minimum 1.0879.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options on November 2019 are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

On November 2019, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement will continue based on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2875 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor operational scale forks);
  • support level of 1.2825 (Median Line of the Minuette operational scale forks).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2875 - the development of the GBP / USD movement will be directed to the goals - the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.2930) - the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (1.3015) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks - 1/2 Median Line Minor (1.3165) - the lower boundary ISL3.2 (1.3300) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks -

In case of breakdown of the Median Line Minuette (support level of 1.2825), Her Majesty's downward movement of currency can be continued towards the targets - the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (1.2635) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks - 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks (1.2500 - 1.2380 - 1.2245).

The details of the GBP / USD movement in November 2019 can be seen in the animated chart.

analytics5db6f98e11008.jpg

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The currency of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY on November 2019 will also begin to develop its movement depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 108.90 (control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 108.40 (starting line SSLof the Minuette operational scale forks).

Consecutive breakdown of support levels :

- 108.40 (the initial SSL line of the forks of the Minuette operational scale forks);

- 108.10 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks);

will make it relevant to continue the downward movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" to the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channels of the Minor operational scale forks (107.50 - 106.75 - 105.90) and Minuette (107.05 - 106.50 - 105.90).

The upward movement of USD / JPY may take place in the case of a combined breakdown of resistance levels :

- 108.90 (control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks);

- 109.15 (Median line of the Minor operational scale forks);

and the target of this movement will be the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (110.15) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks, and if the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minor occurs, then the price of this currency instrument can continue to grow to a maximum of 112.43.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: the pound plays solitaire

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The prospect of concluding an agreement on the terms of the UK's exit from the European Union, which loomed on the horizon, allowed the GBP / USD pair to soar by more than 5% in two weeks. However, due to the refusal of the British Parliament to consider the option of an accelerated deal presented by the Prime Minister of the country, Boris Johnson, the risks of a pound reversal began to shift to "bearish" territory. Moreover, the fact that the chances of implementing a "hard" Brexit are minimal since the 2016 referendum indicates a limited potential for a decline in GBP / USD.

It can be recalled that B. Johnson managed to do the almost impossible - to agree with Brussels on the Irish border. In addition, the House of Commons approved a draft agreement for the first time on the UK's exit from the EU in general terms. However, parliamentarians considered that the three days proposed by the prime minister for the full approval of the deal would not be enough. This automatically launched a procedure for the extension of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Thus, the EU is ready to give Britain a three-month deferral of Brexit.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs experts believe that the issue of the release of Misty Albion from the alliance will be resolved within three to four weeks, which ultimately will cause a rally of the pound in the direction of $ 1.35.

In the meantime, B. Johnson is dreaming of holding early parliamentary elections. According to the British prime minister, the confident victory of the conservatives will allow him to implement his plan for Brexit.

According to recent polls, the Tory rating has risen to 32–37%, while Labor is gaining 22–24%.

It is paradoxical, but a fact: the head of government suffers one defeat after another in the House of Commons, has lost the majority, and the popularity of conservatives is growing in the country. According to experts, the conservative's strong support is associated with their reputation as a real "party in power", which can be entrusted with running the country without fear of shocks, imposing new taxes or irresponsible spending, unlike the Labor with their social assistance programs and the nationalization of certain sectors of the economy.

In addition, potential supporters of the Labor Party are also alarmed by their half-hearted position on Britain's exit from the EU - they seem to be against it, but they also want to respect the "will of the people". Moreover, the party itself has both a pro-European wing and the so-called "Brexiters". Last week, 19 Labor deputies voted in favor of a draft deal by B. Johnson, contrary to the call of party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Thus, a convincing victory for the Labor Party in the upcoming elections is not yet in sight.

However, they can bet on a coalition combination, the probability of which is theoretically possible if the Liberal Democrats make a powerful breakthrough and the Scottish National Party seriously strengthens their positions. In this case, there may be a situation of a "suspended" parliament, that is, without a definite majority, which means that a field for maneuver will arise. Although experts do not exclude the possibility of forming a coalition of Labor with the Scots: at least in terms of socio-economic positions, the parties are close. After then, J. Corbyn will have a chance to become prime minister.

After several weeks of rapid rally, the GBP/USD pair may be stuck in the range of 1.275-1.32 against the backdrop of continued uncertainty around Brexit. At the same time, a drop in quotations in the direction of the lower boundary of the specified range will create a good opportunity for the formation of long positions on the pound. However, the main risk for this scenario is the early parliamentary elections in the UK.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. October 28. Results of the day. Boris Johnson makes a second "knight's move"

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 138p - 139p - 80p - 161p - 59p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 115p (high).

Monday, October 28, for the GBP/USD pair also takes place in quiet trading with low volatility. Even the news that the EU officially gave the go-ahead for the transfer of Brexit for another three months did not affect the currency pair's movement. Indeed, why should traders get nervous? Everything went to the next Brexit date postponement in recent weeks, despite the fact that Boris Johnson and the EU leaders have agreed on a deal. We have repeatedly said that, in fact, there is no sense in Johnson's agreements with the European Union until they are approved by the British Parliament. In practice, it was the House of Commons that once again stood in the way of the "divorce" of London and Brussels. And the deal of Boris Johnson, in fact, is not much different from Theresa May's deal, which the deputies blocked three times. Thus, today traders had nothing to react to.

But Boris Johnson has no choice but to push through the idea of re-election to the Parliament and hope that the electorate will vote for as many Conservatives as possible in order to allow Johnson to make decisions individually. One way or another, now everything will depend not on Johnson, Corbyn, political parties, but on the population of Great Britain. Will there be a second referendum or will parliamentary re-elections take place, it is the people who will decide the fate of the country, as well as the question "Do British citizens want to renew Brexit every three months or leave the EU without any deals?" If the majority of voters still want to leave the EU according to any scenario, then they should vote for the Conservatives, but if they want to stay in the European Union or try to get out according to the mildest scenario, then they should vote for the Labour Party. The problem is that the distribution of votes can again be ambiguous, as in the 2016 referendum itself, when it is impossible to say unequivocally that most citizens support one opinion or another, one or another party. The British prime minister is going to agitate the population in such a situation. But not for themselves, but against the Parliament, against the House of Commons, which blocked Brexit for the fourth time. Accordingly, Johnson received an additional trump card. Now he can, speaking to the people, declare that the Parliament rejected both an exit without a deal and an exit with a deal. If this works, then the Conservatives will win the parliamentary elections. But will there be an election? Labour and opposition cannot help but realize that elections can give Johnson the necessary edge. And if this advantage is obtained, Johnson will not be interested in the opinion of the opposition. He and the opinion of the whole Parliament were not very interested, since initially he was going to single-handedly withdraw the country from the European Union by means of the propaganda of the work of the MPs. Thus, it does not make sense for the opposition to approve the re-election. Fortunately, their implementation requires the approval of at least 434 MPs, that is 2/3. There are still so many votes in favor that need to be collected. Voting for the December 12 parliamentary elections will take place tonight, so tomorrow we will know for sure whether Boris Johnson will get the chance of his first victory at the helm of the UK or not.

As for macroeconomic statistics, nothing interesting has been published either in the United States or in the UK today. In the UK, no macroeconomic indicators have been published for more than a week, so the drop in volatility is also partly due to this factor. We again do not expect any economic data from Great Britain tomorrow, and only a couple of minor reports will be published in the United States. From a technical point of view, the pair is being traded inside the Ichimoku cloud, so the "dead cross" is weak and the sales of the pound are mixed. The upward trend may well resume if the bulls manage to return the pair above the Kijun-sen critical line, which could happen with the help of the Fed's actions on Wednesday. But Brexit should not be overlooked. It should be remembered how the 800-pound upward movement began. From the banal news that Leo Varadkar and Boris Johnson announced the possible (!!!) achievement of a deal on Brexit with the European Union, which at the moment does not make much sense.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD within the downward correction has consolidated below the critical line. Thus, formally, sales of the British currency are currently relevant with a target of 1.2743, which, if opened, is only done in small lots. It is recommended to return to buying if the pair is re-secured above the Kijun-sen line, but also in small lots, since the foundation does not yet suggest strong growth of the pair.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Phoenix rises from the ashes: Bitcoin has surpassed itself

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The leading digital currency does not cease to amaze the cryptocurrency market. At the end of last week, Bitcoin predicted a serious collapse, and now, like the legendary phoenix bird, it is again full of strength and is ready to fight for a place under the cryptocurrency sun.

Recall, last Friday, according to the tag characteristic of one of the analysts, the head of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg "drove the last nail into the cryptocurrency coffin lid." This was facilitated by statements by members of the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. Congressmen expressed concern about the spread of digital currencies, and also stated that they pose a threat to the traditional foreign exchange market and may be used for fraudulent activities. During the meeting, a proposal was also made for a complete ban on virtual currencies.

Experts recall that the cryptocurrency market is very dependent on the news background. Not surprisingly, such information powerfully hit Bitcoin. Last week, the reference cryptocurrency collapsed to a five-month low, having lost almost $1000 per day and hit the bottom at $7330.

However, the surprises did not end there. Toward the close of last week, the cryptocurrency market demonstrated incredible opportunities comparable to the phoenix that rose from the ashes. It exploded amid a PTS take-off that made a jump of $3,000. As a result, the leading digital asset added 40% and reached $10500. On Sunday, October 27, maintaining cosmic speed, Bitcoin stayed at its highest values in excess of $10,000. Other digital assets pulled up behind the reference cryptocurrency. Many altcoins also gained speed. Among them were Ethereum (ETH/USD), which rose by nearly 30%, Ripple (XRP / USD), up 31%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD), soared 35%. On the morning of Monday, October 28, Bitcoin was trading in the range of $9410– $9411, while analysts recorded a downward trend.

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According to experts, the current rise was the largest since February 2014. The colossal driver of this take-off was the news from China. Chinese President Xi Jinping in his speech supported the development of blockchain technology in general and bitcoin in particular. He formed an impressive momentum for the market, improving the situation significantly. According to the Chinese leader, the country is ready to increase investment in the further development of blockchain technology and major cryptocurrencies.

According to experts, the growth of investment by Chinese investors is another catalyst for the growth of the digital asset market. They could become more active after the speech of President Xi Jinping. According to the head of China, the country has every chance to take a leading position in the field of blockchain technology. Xi Jinping drew attention to the need for its integration into the real economy and information technology, such as artificial intelligence, Big Data and the Internet of Things.

The statement of the Chinese leader provoked an almost instantaneous response from the National People's Congress (Parliament of China). The agency approved a law on cryptography, which defines the standards of cryptographic applications and the process of managing public/private keys.

However, price drops were not in vain for bitcoin. Currently, it has rolled back below $10,000, and the cryptocurrency market has entered the consolidation phase. At the moment, the BTC/USD pair was trading at fairly low values, around $9380– $9381, causing market tension to cause a further fall.

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In general, the fears of experts were not in vain. Bitcoin was able to recover to an impressive mark of $9492– $9493, but for a long time it was not possible for it to gain a foothold in its positions.

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At the moment, the cryptocurrency pair runs in the low range of $9380– $9381, previously tested, but is not going to surrender completely.

As a result of the powerful breakthrough, holders of the number one cryptocurrency and traders with open long positions in bitcoin and other digital assets received impressive profits. The remaining market players after the reversal of the BTC/USD pair and its collapse to the level of $9055 expected losses. According to experts, this was a significant level of support, on which the pair relied, starting from mid-June 2019. Now the market will have to carefully monitor both the situation in general and the actions of the Chinese leader in particular, so as not to miss the capricious bird of fortune, which so suddenly fluttered into the cryptosphere and suddenly left it.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Early elections in Britain: intrigue persists - Liberal Democrats put forward a counter demand

The European Union granted Great Britain an extension of Brexit. Despite the "traditional" resistance of the French, Brussels agreed to prolong the negotiation process until January 31, 2020. However, the British do not have to wait for the final date: the postponement is flexible, so London can prematurely initiate the completion of the Brexit procedure. But for this, the deputies of the House of Commons need to support the proposed draft deal with the EU. Fulfillment of this condition is the most difficult stage of the negotiation process. That is why the pound almost ignored today's decision of the Europeans. If Paris continued to block the deferral agreement, the GBP/USD pair would accordingly continue the downward movement. But by and large, traders were sure that in the end Brussels would agree on this step, therefore, a positive verdict on this issue provided little support to the pair.

But the issue of holding early elections to the House of Commons excites the minds of traders. After all, the fate of the orderly Brexit is now completely in the hands of the British Parliament, the current composition of which, to put it mildly, is very unfavorable to the current prime minister. So, in the House of Commons there are 650 deputies, 294 of which are Conservatives. A few months ago, there were 315 Tory representatives, but Johnson expelled 21 deputies from the party for "political indiscipline" - they supported the law obliging him to ask Brussels for deferment of Brexit.

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In order to overcome the threshold of a simple majority, the prime minister needs another 31 votes (provided that the Conservatives vote "yes"). The Tory's temporary ally is the Democratic Union Party — at the expense of their representatives, the Conservatives had a majority in Parliament. But this is in a "peaceful" time, while now the Unionists are also categorically against the approval of the deal. Other parties represented in the British Parliament - the Scottish National Party, the Greens and the Party of Wales - are long-standing opponents of the Conservatives in general and Boris Johnson in particular, so it will be extremely difficult for the prime minister to entice them to his side.

Meanwhile, a snap election in Britain could be called with the support of two-thirds of Parliament (434 MPs). Labour has twice blocked the government's initiative to hold elections, and this time also promised to vote in a similar way. According to the British press, Downing street is also discussing a "plan B": Johnson's supporters initiate a vote of no confidence in the government – after the completion of the two-week period, which is allotted for the formation of a new Cabinet, the Parliament "automatically" dissolves. In this case, Johnson will need a simple majority, but there are risks: for example, during the allotted 14 days, opposition parties can hypothetically unite around another leader, depriving the Conservatives of power.

Another way to early elections is to change the electoral law itself. However, any such bill can get bogged down in parliamentary discussions for a long time. Labour could amend the proposal to Johnson's disadvantage by adjusting the timing or procedure of the election. In addition, the opposition may delay consideration of the bill for a long time by introducing various amendments, for example, on the right to vote for 16-year-olds.

The first battles in the British Parliament on the issue of early elections ended in nothing today. On Monday, Labour again reaffirmed their position - they will not support Johnson's initiative. When the speaker put this issue to a vote, 299 deputies spoke in favor, which is 135 less than the required number.

But the Liberal Democrats announced that they would support early elections, but they did not propose holding them on December 12, but on December 9. At first glance, the difference of three days is not significant, but not in this case. The fact is that on December 9, students of most universities will still be in their educational institutions (and are more likely to take part in the elections). But on December 10-11, the Christmas holidays begin: many students may not wait for the end of the week and will leave for a vacation. Libdems are popular among young people, so this nuance has strategic importance for them. Boris Johnson announced that he would discuss the proposal of Liberal Democrats, after which the parliament would return to this issue again - most likely, on Tuesday.

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It is worth noting that a survey conducted from Wednesday to Friday last week showed that Conservative support reached 40%, while Labour remained at the same level - 24%. Compared with the survey the week before last, Tory support grew by 3%, but the result of the Labour Party did not change. Liberal Democrats, in turn, received 15% support in the latest poll, and Nigel Farage's Brexit party received 10%. All this suggests that following the results of early elections, Johnson will be able to form a majority in the House of Commons and, accordingly, agree on a deal with Brussels.

Thus, the first round of the struggle for elections ended to no avail. At the same time, the intrigue in this matter still persists, especially amid the prolongation of the negotiation process until January 31 and the position of Liberal Democrats.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: the euro is watching the fate of Brexit, and the dollar is waiting for the Fed's verdict

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The euro began a new week on a positive note, primarily due to reports that the EU has agreed to provide Britain with a three-month deferral of Brexit.

After falling to local lows near 1.1070, the EUR/USD pair rebounded to 1.1090 and aimed for a key resistance level of 1.1100.

However, the potential for further recovery of the main currency pair seems limited due to the fact that the uncertainty surrounding the UK exit from the EU remains high, despite the extension of the Brexit deadline until January 31.

In addition, a regular meeting of the Federal Reserve will take place on Wednesday, the decision of which on monetary policy may put pressure on EUR/USD, since dovish expectations are already included in the quotes, and the regulator will have to try very hard to surprise the market with something else.

According to the results of the October meeting, the Fed is expected to lower the interest rate by another 25 basis points, to 1.5-1.75%.

The main intrigue is what the further plans of the US central bank are: will it pause in easing monetary policy or continue what it started.

In anticipation of the Fed meeting on October 30, data on US GDP will be released and, according to forecasts, they will demonstrate a slowdown in the US economy (from 2.0% in April – June to 1.6% in the third quarter). If this is true, then Donald Trump will receive another lever of pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues. Earlier, the head of the White House called on the regulator to act more actively and reduce the interest rate to zero.

Among other releases of the current week that may affect the EUR/USD rate, one should pay attention to the reports on European GDP for the third quarter and inflation in the eurozone (October 31), as well as data on the US labor market and business activity in the USA from ISM (November 1).

According to a number of experts, even though the risks of UK exit from the EU without a deal have substantially decreased and the country will receive another deferral of Brexit, this can still negatively affect the single European currency, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair could update its October 1 low at 1.0880 in November.

It is expected that the inability of EUR/USD to break monthly highs in the region of 1.1180 will provoke a slight consolidation, and then fall to the area of 1.1040, below which the upward pressure on the pair will weaken, and it will first recede to 1.0920, and then to 1. 0879.

The signing of the "divorce" agreement between the United Kingdom and the EU, supported by the British Parliament, will push the main currency pair to 1.1350-1.1400.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar is leading, while the euro is on fire. For how long?

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The US remains in the lead in the currency ring in the EUR/USD pair. The greenback feels very confident amid the weakening euro and pound. The European currency along with the British pound are in turmoil in anticipation of the upcoming difficult week.

The past week has not clarified the situation, and the current one promises to be very eventful, but it can also be confusing. The market is destabilized by the information that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to hold early parliamentary elections on December 12, 2019. This further aggravates the already difficult situation with the country's exit from the EU. The foreign exchange market is experiencing severe congestion. The euro and pound fell against the US dollar following weak statistics last week, difficulties with Brexit and "farewell" statements by Mario Draghi. This situation was in the hands of the US currency, analysts said.

Due to the growing uncertainty in the financial market, many investors prefer to hedge the risks of a drop in the pound. A weakened British currency is pulling the euro along with it, risking a complete collapse of the single euro. Moreover, a high probability of a pause in the course of easing the monetary policy of the Fed gives strength to the bears that are working with the EUR/USD pair. The vast majority of experts (85%) are confident that the Federal Reserve will reduce the rate on federal funds at the next meeting, which will be held on October 29-30, that is, this week.

According to experts, a long pause in the process of such monetary expansion is favorable for the US currency. The dollar will not miss its point, analysts said. They note that while the Fed and the ECB are in thought, the EUR/USD pair risks getting stuck in the consolidation zone. On the morning of Monday, October 28, the pair was trading within 1.1087–1.1088, not too eager to increase.

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Nevertheless, now the US dollar is on the rise. The greenback's positive mood was promoted by the statements of the Chinese and US leaders on improving relations, as well as corporate reporting by US companies, which turned out to be better than expected. The dollar is leading in the EUR/USD pair, while the euro is being driven. Currently, thanks to the greenback, the pair is showing a growth trend, rapidly rising to the levels of 1.1094–1.1095.

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However, the positive stubbornly avoids the European. Experts consider early elections in the UK as the main risk factor for the single currency. In addition to the endless uncertainty with Brexit, the slowdown in the European economy also has pressure on the euro. Despite all the efforts of the ECB, inflation in the eurozone does not reach the target level of 2%. Recall that last month the regulator reduced the interest rate to negative -0.5% and announced the revival of the quantitative easing (QE) program. Experts believe that with the advent of Christine Lagarde, the new head of the ECB, we should wait for the next change. But at the moment, the advantage was on the side of the dollar, since the US Federal Reserve rate is positive and is at 2%.

According to experts, the appropriateness of expanding the monetary stimulus in the eurozone, initiated by M. Draghi, is doubtful, and the Fed's passivity may be the reason for the consolidation of the EUR/USD pair. Experts admit the possibility of such consolidation at the level of 1.1065–1.1115. Currently, the pair is trading in the range of 1.1091-1092. They believe that the subsidence of the European currency will continue in the short term, but in the future they expect it to turn upward. In the event of the implementation of such a scenario, the US currency will have to make concessions and make some room on its pedestal.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com