USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 5, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2650 on June 9.

The recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.3000-1.3070 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was considered for another SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 1.3150. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2820 and 1.2710.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2400-1.2500 constitutes a significant support zone to be watched for BUY entries when enough bearish pressure is applied below 1.2650.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 5, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That's why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advancement was expected towards the price zone around 0.7200 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 0.7150 - 0.7200 (the upper limit of the depicted channel) for a valid SELL entry ( recent Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is being expressed on the chart).

T/P levels should be located at 0.6970, 0.6900, and 0.6850. S/L should be placed above 0.7260.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6760 - 0.6860 constitutes a significant support zone to offer bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry if any bearish swing persists below 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 5, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, temporary bearish breakdown below 1.3550 is currently being manifested on the depicted charts.

Note that the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 now constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if any bullish pullback extends above 1.3550.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario. Bearish decline towards 1.3050 (the nearest bearish projection target) should be expected then.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 5, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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Similar to what happened in October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 constituted a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.

Later on May 18, daily persistence below the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1200 was needed to ensure enough bearish momentum towards the 1.1100 and 1.1000 levels. However, a lack of bearish pressure was manifested on June 1.

Hence, the recent bullish closure above 1.1200 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1400 where evident signs of bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were previously suggested. That's why, obvious bearish breakdown of 1.1200 took place on June 16

However, evident bullish rejection around 1.1130 (depicted uptrend line) brought the EUR/USD pair above 1.1200 again.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the zone of 1.1400 offered a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates.

However, the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range) constituted a demand zone to offer a short-term BUY entry. T/P levels to be located at 1.1110, 1.1180 and 1.1220.

Price action should be watched around the price level of 1.1200 for a valid SELL entry if the current bullish pullback extends above 1.1100.

On the other hand, bearish fixation below 1.1000 allows a quick bearish decline towards 1.0820 to occur.

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Gold analysis for July 05 , 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,338.34 in an ultra high volume (climax). According to the 30M time frame, there is massive climax in the background and successful testing of supply, which is a sign that selling looks very risky. Climatic action represents panic reaction usually due to bad news, it can also represent profit taking by sellers. So, watch for buying opportunities on the dips. The first take profit level is set at the price of $1,353.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,358.30

R2: 1.362.30

R3: 1,368.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,345.20

S2: 1,341.15

S3: 1,334.60

Trading recommendations for today: Selling gold looks risky at this stage. So, watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/NZD analysis for July 05, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.5495 in a high volume. The price reached our take profit level from yesterday at 1.5390 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%) and I saw strong rejection from that point According to the 30M time frame, I found intraday upward trend and successful testing of supply in a low volume. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. Take profit level is set at the price of 1.5550.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5505

R2: 1.5540

R3: 1.5600

Support levels:

S1: 1.5390

S2: 1.5355

S3: 1.5300

Trading recommendations for today: Watch buying opportunities on the dips.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 05, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7174. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to trade between 0.7174 and 0.7261. So, the support is seen at 0.7174, while daily resistance is found at 0.7261. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the area of 0.7174. Hence, we foresee the price to set above the strong support at the levels of 0.7174 and 0.7136; because the price is in a bullish channel now. The RSI starts signaling an upward trend above the spot of 0.7174. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 0.7174 with the first target at the level of 0.7229; and continue towards 0.7261. However, if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7261 today, the market will decline further to 0.7174 so as to retest the first weekly support.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 05, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair couldn't break the strong support at the level of 0.9678 yesterday. The level of 0.9678 coincides with 50% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.6615. Currently, the price is in the bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between 0.9678 and 0.9798. On the H1 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9768 and 0.9798. Also, it should be noticed that, the level of 0.9715 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9678 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.9715. If the trend breaks the support at 0.9715 (first resistance) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level of 0.9768 and 0.9798 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, the stop loss should be placed below the second support of 0.9640.
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Global macro overview for 05/07/2016

Global macro analysis for 05/07/2016:

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at the level of 1.75% overnight, just as expected. In the Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens concluded his speech saying "further information should allow the board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation, and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate." This might mean that next quarterly CPI reading in July might be the key fundamental data for the RBA in order to make a decision on a further rate cut. Moreover, Stevens acknowledged Britain's vote to quit the European Union, but largely dismissed its economic impact on Australia. In conclusion, the Australian economy is still being supported by weak currency and record-low interest rates, but it looks like another rate cut this summer seems unavoidable.

Let us now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the daily time frame. The outlook is not that clear because the market still trades below the brown trend line and at the same time above the 55,100 and 200 DMA., just in the middle of the range. It looks like this situation can last until the next RBA's rate decision. The important support is seen at the level of 0.7143 and important resistance is seen at the level of 0.7835.

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Global macro overview for 05/07/2016

Global macro analysis for 05/07/2016:

The Construction PMI data from the UK was revealed yesterday and it widely disappointed the market participants. According to the data, June was the worst month in seven years since construction PMI entered a contraction territory. The Construction PMI for the month of June was at the level of 46, 5.2 lower than a month ago and 4.6 points below the market expectations. Moreover, the following number was the first reading below 50.0 marks since April 2013. The main reason for the decline is a big drop in residential building and reduction in commercial work. In conclusion, the construction sector in the UK is sliding into recession and there are strong expectations of a further decline in next month's data.

Let's now take a look at GBP/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. Without any doubt, bears are in control over this market, but the first signs of the looming bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator are visible. Nevertheless, the key level to the upside is still the technical resistance at the level of 1.3562.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 5, 2016

General overview for 05/07/2016:

The market is trading just at the intraday support level of 113.29 and a breakout lower is anticipated. Nevertheless, the wave iv correction might not be completed yet and it still might evolve into a complex and time-consuming pattern, possibly a triangle or any other WXY complex structure. The technical resistance at the level of 115.48 is still the most important level for any bullish rally as it can not be violated. There is still one more wave to the downside missing in order to complete the structure.

Support/Resistance:

109.07 - WS3

109.55 - Wave iii Bottom

110.32 - WS2

111.37 - Intraday Support

112.53 - WS1

113.29 - Intraday Support

113.66 - Weekly Pivot

114.78 - Intraday Resistance

115.48 - Technical Resistance

116.00 - WR1

117.07 - WR2

119.33 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening sell orders at current price levels, with SL above the level of 115.50 and TP open for now. The reason for this trade is, that there is still one more wave to the downside missing.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 5, 2016

General overview for 05/07/2016:

As anticipated yesterday, the corrective cycle in wave (ii) had made another marginal lower low and now it might look like the whole correction is completed. Breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2927 will confirm the bottom of the wave (ii) at the level of 1.2830. Please notice, that the level of 1.2676 is the line in the sand for the impulsive structure and it can not be violated.

Support/Resistance:

1.2676 - Invalidation Level

1.2698 - WS2

1.2788 - WS1

1.2830 - Intraday Support

1.2927 - Intraday Resistance

1.2952 - Weekly Pivot

1.3045 - WR1

1.3118 - Wave (i) Top

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders at the level of 1.2788, with SL below the level of 1.2676 and TP open for now. The reason for this trade is that the market should rebound and the uptrend should continue soon.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 5, 2016

The dollar index is sliding lower with a weak bearish trend following the holiday of the 4th of July. I believe the dollar index will bounce strongly this week and start a new uptrend. Support at 95-95.40 is critical.

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Black line - resistance

Price is trading just above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) support at 95.45. Initial bounce signals show that support is respected and it will be difficult to break it. Resistance is at 96.10. A breakout above this level will open the way for a new uptrend towards 99.

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Red line - trend line resistance (broken)

On a daily basis, price is above the Kumo and is back testing the broken trend line resistance. With a higher high and higher low since late April, the dollar index may be on the verge of staging a longer-term trend reversal. Overall I'm dollar bullish.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 5, 2016

Gold price is pulling back after testing the post-Brexit high of $1,360. I continue to expect a higher high for Gold price near $1,400. The trend remains bullish.

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Green line - support

Gold price pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement as this is a justified pullback. The price is trading above the 4-hour Kumo and the 4-hour kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). The trend is bullish. Next support is at $1,335, and resistance remains at $1,360. New highs are expected.

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Red lines - expanding triangle

The weekly chart above shows how the price reached the upper red trend line resistance of the possible expanding triangle scenario. If this scenario comes true we should see a pullback towards $1,200 for the final part of the triangle. Longer-term view remains bullish as price is trading above weekly Kumo.

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NZD/USD trading Recommendations for July 5th, 2016

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Trading Recommendations :

Sell now

Stop loss is at 0.7245

Take profit is at 0.7125

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GBP/AUD Long Term Trading Strategy

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Trading recommendations :

Buy above 1.7445

Take profit is at 2.0530

Stop loss is at 1.6900

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 5, 2016

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Wave summary:

The direct break below 1.5411 indicates that the correction in wave (ii) terminated at 1.5775 and the next impulsive decline towards 1.4490 is developing.

The correction in wave (ii) could turn into an expanded flat, but in this case the minor support at 1.5280 needs to protect the downside for a break above the minor resistance at 1.5585 that will call for a rally closer to 1.5860 before wave (ii) is completed and wave (iii) lower begins.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our sell entry. We will still sell at 1.5880, but place a sell order upon a break below 1.5280.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 5, 2016

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Wave Summary:

The clear break below the minor support line indicates that the next impulsive decline towards 108.17 has begun. We will like to see a break below minor support at 113.31 too as confirmation that this decline is unfolding now.

Resistance is now found at 114.40. This resistance needs to protect the upside otherwise the expected impulsive decline towards 108.17 will be delayed.

Trading recommendation:

You should be short on the EUR with stop at 114.45. If you are not short on the EUR yet, then sell at 113.85 or upon a break below support at 113.31 and use the same stop at 114.45. Take profit should be placed at 108.25.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 05, 2016

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USD/JPY is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair rebounded up to 102.80 yesterday before resuming a downtrend. Currently, while being capped by the 50-period (30-minute chart) moving average, the pair has broken below the lower Bollinger band as those bands are widening, suggesting an acceleration to the downside. At the same time the intraday relative strength index has crossed below the over-sold level of 30, indicating imminent downward momentum for the pair. The first downside target at 101.75 is in sight. And a break below this level would trigger a further decline toward 101.40. Key resistance has been lowered to 102.80 (around yesterday's high). U.S. markets were closed on Monday to observe the Independence Day holiday.

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar remained under pressure as EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1154 and GBP/USD rebounded 0.2% to 1.3289. On the other hand USD/JPY edged up to 102.55 from 102.51 a day earlier.

Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.70. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.40. The pivot point stands at 102.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 103.10 and the second one, at 103.40.

Resistance levels: 103.10, 103.40, 104.00

Support levels: 101.70, 101.40, 101

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 05, 2016

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USD/CHF is under pressure and expected to develop its downside movement. The pair remains on the downside, capped by its falling 50-period moving average. Meanwhile, a bearish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (a negative signal). Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. Hence, as long as 0.9755 holds as the key resistance, the pair is likely to return to 0.9690 and 0.9655 in extension. Alternatively, only a break above 0.9755 would call for a new rise to 0.9775 and 0.9800 as targets.

Resistance levels: 0.9775, 0.9800, 0.9840

Support levels: 0.9690, 0.9655, 0.94

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 05, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.7175.The pair remains on the upside within its bullish channel. At the same time, the 50-period moving average is heading upward, and acts as a support role. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited. To sum up, as long as 0.7175 holds on the downside, look for further advance to 0.7240 and 0.7265 in extension.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7240 and the second one, at 0.7265. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7155 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7115. The pivot point is at 0.7175.

Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7265, 0.73

Support levels: 0.7155, 0.7115, 0.7055

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 05, 2016

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GBP/JPY is under pressure and expected to go further downward. European stocks encountered resistance after rallying for four sessions in a row, with the Stoxx Europe 600 declining 0.7%. The pair is moving sideways below its key resistance at 136.30, while the relative strength index is around 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as 136.30 holds as the key resistance, a drop toward 134.20 is possible.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 135.00. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 134.20. The pivot point stands at 136.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 136.85 and the second one, at 137.70.

Resistance levels: 136.85, 137.70, 138.70

Support levels: 135, 134.20, 133.30

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 5, 2016

EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument has not assumed any directional bias this week (though that is very much likely to start this week or next week). The Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market could be rendered useless once the price goes above the resistance line at 1.1300. Otherwise, the extant bearish outlook would be underlined again.

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USD/CHF: Bears effected a faint bearish movement on this pair yesterday, and further downward movement would result in a bearish signal in the market. Any show of strength in EUR/USD would immediately result in more weakness on USD/CHF. Another obstacle ahead of bulls is the possibility that CHF could gain strength in the month of July, which would also cause visible effects on CHF pairs.

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GBP/USD: There is nothing significant here right now. This currency trading instrument did not effect any bullish or bearish domination last week, though everything remains in the context of a downtrend. Bears might continue proving their stamina, because the outlook on the market (and other GBP pairs), is bearish for this week. The accumulation territories at 1.3100 and 1.3050 are vulnerable.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair only moved sideways last week, and the chances of a rising momentum are great this week. Although the price movement was clearly flat on July 4, 2016, the outlook on the market, as well as other JPY pairs, is bearish for this week and this month. Bears could thus target the demand levels at 102.00 and 101.50 this week.

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EUR/JPY: This cross went upwards by 250 pips last week, but the bearish bias on the market remains valid. While price simply went flat on Monday, a northward movement of 300 pip would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, whereas a southward movement would simply emphasize the persistent bearish bias.

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 05, 2016

Yesterday was the US Independence holiday, but USDX struggled to break above the resistance level of 95.89. Currently, the index is being supported by the 200 SMA on H1 chart, where a bullish momentum is expected to take place in coming hours. If it happens, we foresee a breakout above the 95.89 level. However, if bears regain control, the index could test the 95.20 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.89 / 96.60

H1 chart's support levels: 95.20 / 94.37

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.89, take profit is at 96.60, and stop loss is at 95.17.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 05, 2016

The cable remains flat and trading below the resistance level of 1.3380, looking to find a road for this week, where bears are still favored by the current price action. 200 SMA is still pointing to the downside on H1 chart, giving pressure to bulls on GBP/USD. However, if the pair manages to break the 1.3380 level, it can reach the 1.3653 price zone.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3380 / 1.3653

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3148 / 1.3000

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3148, take profit is at 1.3000 and stop loss is at 1.3298.

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