Daily analysis of USD/JPY for August 02, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair attempted to break 110.15 level yesterday but it couldn't hold below it, to rebound bullishly and heads potential test to 110.98 level, noticing that the EMA50 meets the mentioned resistance to add more strength to it, accompanied by stochastic reach the overbought areas. Therefore, we believe that the chances are valid to resume the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin by breaking 110.15 level to open the way to head towards 108.80, reminding you that breaching 110.98 will lead the price to achieve more gains that target 112.32 areas mainly. The expected trading range for today is between 109.50 support and 111.20 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 02, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair confirms its affection by the positive attempts recently to notice its move from the initial support around 145.00, to keep suggesting the positive domination until touching 147.60 resistance, while we remind you that the continuation of the positive pressure might push the price to surpass the current resistance, to confirm the continuation of the positive domination by reaching 38.2% Fibonacci correction level around 150.95. Stochastic form to new positive wave reinforces the bullish attempts by providing new positive momentum to ease the attempt to reach the wanted target. The expected trading range for today is between 145.60 and 147.60

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Daily analysis of Gold for August 02, 2017

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Overview

Gold price shows some slight bearish bias by today's opening on its way for new retest process to the previously breached neckline of the inverted head and shoulders' pattern that appears on the chart before resuming the main bullish trend again. In general, the bullish trend still active on the intraday and short term basis supported by the EMA50 unless breaking 1254.56 level and holding below it, as breaking this level will push the price to visit 1229.32 areas before any new attempt to rise, while the waited positive targets begin at 1295.37 followed by 1312.00. The expected trading range for today is between 1254.00 support and 1280.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for August 02, 2017

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Overview

Silver price is testing the key support 16.56 now, as it found difficulty to breach the key resistance 16.80 in the previous sessions, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as breaking the mentioned support will stop the recently suggested rise and push the price to decline towards 15.49 mainly. Until now, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend conditioned by holding above 16.56, reminding you that our next main target is located at 17.43, which breaching it represents the key to extend the bullish wave towards 18.30. The expected trading range for today is between 16.50 support and 16.85 resistance.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 2, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand-zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry if any bearish pullback occurs.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 2, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until a breakout in either direction is confirmed.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1710, 1.1850 and 1.2000.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a temporary bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.1720-1.1750 (August 2015 Highest level) where price action should be watched for a bearish pullback.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched if a bearish pullback occurs.

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Analysis of Gold for August 02, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,274.10. According to the 4H time frame, I found 20-day upward channel. The price successfully tested the lower diagonal of our channel, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Buyers are in control and the short-term trend is bullish. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,274.00 and $1,290.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,276.00

R2: $1,280.00

R3: $1,288.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,265.00

S2: $1,258.00

S3: $1,254.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for August 02, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1868. Anyway, according to the 15M time frame, I found broken falling wedge (bullish pattern), which is a sign that selling looks risky. Also, there is a pullback and successful re-test of the falling wedge, which is another sign of strength. I placed Stochastic on the chart and there is an oversold condition, which is confirming potential strength. Watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1865 and 1.1900.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1835

R2: 1.1870

R3: 1.1900

Support levels:

S1: 1.1775

S2: 1.1750

S3: 1.1715

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 2, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has continued its bullish journey this week, and it is currently testing the resistance line at 1.1850. The resistance line would soon be breached to the upside, owing to the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and the price would then target another resistance line at 1.1900.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF went sideways on Monday and Tuesday, while the bullish signal that was generated last week is still intact. As long as CHF is weak, the bullish signal in the market would be sustained. While the resistance level at 0.9700 could be tested once again, the market would go seriously south in case CHF gains stamina.

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GBP/USD: The movement on the Cable is almost similar to the movement on the EUR/USD (they are both positively correlated). The market has gone upwards this week, moving above the accumulation territory at 1.3200 and targeting the distribution territory at 1.3250. As long as the EUR/USD is strong, the Cable may also manage to go north.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument tested the demand level at 110.00 and then bounced upwards. The upward bounce is shallow and it may signal another bearish effort. The bias on this market is bearish and the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56. Further downwards movement is anticipated, which would enable price to go below the demand level at 110.00 (which has been previously tested).

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EUR/JPY: This cross has gone above the demand zone at 130.50 and 131.00. This action has ended the recent neutrality on the market, and there is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The next targets for bulls are located at the supply zones at 131.50 and 132.00. However, there is also a risk of a pullback along the way.

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Trading plan 02/08/2017

Trading plan 08.02.2017

The overall picture: The news week is accelerating.

On Tuesday, important data on inflation in the US will be published. The inflation index for the personal consumer expenditures or PCE is the main fnflation indicator for the Fed.

Inflation in the US remains at a very low level: a general inflation of 1.4% per annum, and at a "core" level - that is, without food and gasoline prices- of 1.5%.

Given this, there are no perceived factors for the Fed to strengthen policy.

Today at 12:15 UTC, an important report on employment from ADP will be released - as always, two days before the official report (non-farm payroll).

The forecast for the auspiciousness of the EURUSD exchange rate to show a correction.

EURUSD:

Narrow short-term consolidation is at 1.1785 - 1.1845.

One can play a breakthrough to the top of 1.1845, which is a bit more risky, but you can play for a breakthrough down to 1.1780.

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The pound, like the euro is in an upward trend. Meanwhile, the frank and the yen have undecided directions.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for August 2, 2017

EUR/JPY is currently in a non-volatile bullish trend after breaking above the 130.50 recently. EUR has been quite positive with its economic reports where JPY is currently struggling to make good news on its side to dominate the market. Today JPY Monetary Base report was published with worst value at 15.6% from the previous value of 17.0% which was expected to be at 16.6% but Consumer Confidence showed a slight increase to 43.8 from the previous value of 43.3 which was expected to be at 43.5. On the EUR side, today Spanish Unemployment Change report was published with the worst figure at -26.9k from the previous figure of -98.3k which was expected to be at -66.5k and PPI report is going to be published which is expected to show less deficit at -0.1% from the previous value of -0.4%. Despite the worst figure published recently on the EUR side JPY failed to gain some momentum with mixed economic reports today which signals the severe weakness of JPY leading to further gains on the EUR in the coming days. ECB has been quite positive with the rate hike decision which can also be taken as a consideration of the impulsive gains on the EUR recently.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support level of 130.50 after breaking it with a daily close and expected to reach 132.20 resistance level in the coming days. As the price remains above the 130.50 level with a daily close the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 2, 2017

The NZD/USD has given a reversal signal yesterday and early today is approaching its first minimum pull back target at 0.74. Short-term trend is bearish as long as the price is below 0.7525.

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The second leg down is approaching equality with the first leg down. At 0.7405 we also get the lower cloud boundary and short-term support. A break below these levels will open the way for an extended downward move equal to 161.8% of the first leg down.

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On a daily basis, the price has broken below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). This is a bearish signal. The RSI is diverging so I would expect the price to move towards the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). If this support is broken we should expect more selling pressures to push price towards the daily cloud around 0.7250-0.73.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 2, 2017

The USD/CAD confirmed the bullish reversal yesterday as price made a higher low and earlier today broke above recent high at 1.2575. The trend is bullish as the price is making higher highs and higher lows.

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Blue line - recent high (taken out)

The USD/CAD made a double bottom (higher low slightly) and reversed upwards to break 1.2575. The risk reward around 1.2450 was favoring the bullish scenario as Oil was making new highs while USD/CAD was not making new lows. We previously had noted that the RSI indicators showed reversal signs.

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On a daily basis, the RSI has broken out of the wedge pattern and has given a bullish signal. Price is now respecting this signal and is trying to break above 1.26. The 38% Fibonacci retracement is now at 1.28 so this is our target. Support is at 1.2495 so a break below it will not be a good sign for bulls.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning outlook: US employment report from ADP at 12:15 London Time

Burning outlook: US employment report from the ADP at 12:15 London time

Number of new jobs for July - forecast +

Previous value + 158 K

Forecast range + 151 K + 195 K

Why is this important?

Employment and its dynamics are the most important factor of the state of the economy - along with GDP, inflation and interest rates.

It is obvious that the economy is in the state of healthy growth.

The US economy is in a state of steady growth.

However, in order to influence the Fed in the direction of raising the policy of hiking rates, something more needs to be done - for example, employment growth is higher than +220 K.

Our forecast is likely an attempt to increase the EURUSD rate above 1.1845, towards 1.1950.

But in case there is a very strong data (above +220 K) - we will see a reversal and the euro will fall below 1.1780 towards 1.1680.

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The dollar is in standby mode

Consumer spending in the US rose by 0.1% in June, the lowest in the current year.

Sales of cars in the US continues to decline.

The PMI Markit index in the US manufacturing sector grew in July to 53.3p against 52p from a month earlier.

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At the same time, the analogous index from the ISM fell slightly from the maximum in three years, showing 56.3p against 57.8p from a month earlier. This is slightly worse than the expert's expectations but it's still in the area of multi-month highs.

At the end of last week, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin appealed once again to Congress with a request to immediately raise the ceiling of national debt. His concern is caused by the fact that in August, legislators will leave for vacation and the matter will be postponed until September. This is the last month in which the government will have some money to finance its current activities. The situation is quite alarming since the danger of remaining without funds to refinance your obligations becomes visible.

The Office of the US Congress on Budget (CBO) suggests that even with all available emergency measures, the government will be able to fulfill its obligations only until October. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the number of congressmen who are ready to vote for raising the limit of the state debt without any conditions is steadily declining. Meanwhile, the majority demands a plan that will make it clear where the money will be spent.

Obviously, to resolve the issue, Congress will have to see a detailed draft of the tax reform and not only see it, but also approve it. In other words, a successful procedure for raising the public debt ceiling will not take place until the issue of taxes and Medicare are resolved. All of these events should happen before the end of September, the month in which the Fed, in the opinion of the market, will announce the start of a budget cuts program.

The US economy is in a phase of unstable equilibrium. Positive expectations for the beginning of re-industrialization are exhausted, prices are slowing, and consumers are beginning to save and getting ready for the worst. Thus, the likelihood of a large-scale turmoil in the financial markets will grow in the coming month. These expectations will continue to weigh on the dollar and stimulate the growth in demand for defensive assets, primarily gold, euro and yen. The implementation of the scenario, in which the dollar will begin a new wave of strengthening in the near future, is becoming less likely.

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Technical analysis of USDX for August 2, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. The price is making lower lows and lower highs. There are bullish divergence signs that should not be ignored as this downward move has lasted more than initially expected and should soon provide a strong bounce for the index.

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Short-term support is at 92.75 and resistance at 93.45. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. No reversal sign yet. I believe that soon we should see a dollar bounce.

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Green rectangle - support area

The Dollar index has entered important long-term support area and is approaching close to the 200 MA. A bounce towards the minimum target of 95 is expected from around these levels and traders should be cautious as I believe we are at a turning point. Bears need to tighten their protective stops.

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Technical analysis of gold for August 2, 2017

Gold price made a new high yesterday but prices soon after pulled back inside near the lows of the day just above $1,262. The trend remains bullish but maybe it is time for a pull back. Our short-term minimum target has been achieved. For gold to break above $1,300 we will need a pull back first.

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In the 4-hour chart, as shown above, the price remains above the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) confirming a bullish short-term trend. Support is at $1,263 and next at the Kumo (cloud) at $1,250. This is our minimum pull back target area.

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On a daily basis, Gold price has broken above the daily Kumo (cloud) resistance and this is a bullish sign. However, with the RSI (5) at overbought levels, we could expect a pull back towards cloud support for a back test of the breakout. We remain longer-term bullish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 02/08/2017

Global macro overview for 02/08/2017:

The data from New Zealand job market surprised the global investors. According to Statistics New Zealand, the Unemployment Rate has dropped from 4.9% to 4.8% (lowest level since December 2008), but the Employment Change decreased to -0.2% in the second quarter, while the market participants expected only 0.7% decline after the 1.1% increase in the previous quarter. "The fall in unemployment over the quarter came primarily from 10,000 fewer women being unemployed. This pushed the female unemployment rate down 0.8 percentage points to 4.9%, the lowest unemployment rate for women since the March 2009 quarter. The male unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points, or 7,000 men, to 4.7% in the June 2017 quarter " said Statistics New Zealand statement. The participation Rate slid from 70.6% to 70.0% and Private Wages were unchanged at the level of 0.4%.

It was the first time in two years when the employers were shedding jobs in New Zealand. Despite slightly weaker than expected figures, this was the seventh consecutive quarter of employment gains, which is a good indicator of the robust pace of expansion of the New Zealand economy. The weakness in wage growth likely reflects that there is still ample levels of labor market slack within the New Zealand economy at present.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market has bounced from the golden trend line support around the level of 0.7400 and currently is trying to test the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.7460. Any further deterioration below the level of 0.7398 will likely trigger a deeper correction.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 02, 2017

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Our target which we predicted yesterday has been hit. The pair has rebounded from 109.90 and expected to continue its rebound. The outlook to the pair is positive above a rising trend line. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages are playing support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

As long as 110.25 holds on the downside, look for a further advance towards 111.30 and even 111.70 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 110.25 with a target at 111.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 110.25, Take Profit: 111.30

Resistance levels: 111.30, 111.70, and 112.00 Support Levels: 109.90, 109.45, 109

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 02, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish outlook and inch lower. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 0.9685 (the high of August 1). The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role. The relative strength index is mixed with bearish bias.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the price index for the personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, was flat in June from the prior month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing index fell to 56.3 in July from 57.8 in June. As a result, U.S. government bond strengthened, pressing the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to 2.253% from 2.292% Monday.

To sum up, as long as 0.9685 holds on the upside, we expect a further decline to 0.9630 and even to 0.9590 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position and below the pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9630, Take Profit: 0.9590

Resistance levels: 0.9725, 0.9765, and 0.9800

Support levels: 0.9630, 0.9590, and 0.9540

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 02, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.05.

Resistance. 2: 110.84.

Resistance. 1: 110.62.

Support. 1: 110.34.

Support. 2: 110.13.

Support. 3: 109.91.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 02, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 10-y Bond Auction, PPI m/m, and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1866.

Strong Resistance:1.1859.

Original Resistance: 1.1848.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1837.

Target Inner Area: 1.1809.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1781.

Original Support: 1.1770.

Strong Support: 1.1759.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1752.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD dropping perfectly from our selling area, remain bearish

The price is testing major resistance at 1.1846 (multiple Fibonacci extensions, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see an intermediate correction for a drop towards 1.1764 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is reacting nicely off its resistance and we expect a further drop from here.

Sell below 1.1846. Stop loss is at 1.1880. Take profit is at 1.1764.

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AUD/USD turn bearish with the break of major support

The price has broken our ascending support-turned-resistance line triggering a bearish move from here. We look to sell below major resistance at 0.7996 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, pullback resistance) for a push down all the way to 0.7875 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees our ascending support-turned-resistance line broken triggering a bearish drop from here.

Correlation analysis: We are expecting commodities weakness with AUD/USD and NZD/USD both expecting drops.

Sell below 0.7996. Stop loss is at 0.8047. Take profit is at 0.7875.

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NZD/USD prepare to sell with break of major support

The price has broken a major ascending support-turned-resistance line and we expect a strong drop from here. We prepare to sell below strong resistance at 0.7491 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, pullback resistance) for a push down all the way to 0.7405 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) is starting to see our support-turned-resistance line broken which would trigger a corresponding drop in price.

Correlation analysis: We are expecting commodities weakness with AUD/USD and NZD/USD both expecting drops.

Sell below 0.7491. Stop loss is at 0.7531. Take profit is at 0.7405.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to buy

The price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target for the 4th time in a row. We prepare to buy above major support at 129.96 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, bullish price action) for a push up to at least 130.78 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees long term ascending support line hold our bullish momentum really well.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Buy above 129.96. Stop loss is at 129.50. Take profit is at 130.78.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy

The price has dropped perfectly from our selling area and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 87.71 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci retracement) for a push up to at least 88.34 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 2.3% where we expect a bounce from.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Buy above 87.71. Stop loss is at 87.44. Take profit is at 88.34.

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USD/JPY approaching major support, remain bullish

We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 109.80 support (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, bullish divergence) for a push up to at least 111.59 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

RSI (34) sees bullish divergence signaling that a bounce is impending. The previous occurrence of such a bullish divergence led to a huge bullish rally.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Buy above 109.80. Stop loss is at 108.67. Take profit is at 111.59.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has broken resistance which turned to a strong support at the level of 0.9579 this week. The price of 0.9579 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a major support on the second of August 2017. Since the trend is above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.9575. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between 0.9579 and 0.9728. In the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9666 and 0.9728. Also, it should be noticed that the level of 0.9666 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, a strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9575 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.9666. If the trend breaks the support at 0.9666 (resistance 1), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.9728 in order to test the daily resistance 2. On the other hand, the stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.9525 (23.6% of Fibonacci).
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The kiwi has already tested the area of 0.7409 - 0.7444. The NZD/USD pair will probably continue to move upwards from the level of 0.7409. However, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7557 followed by 0.7600, while the daily support 1 is seen at 0.7444 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7409 and 0.7600. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out the first resistance level at 0.7557, we could see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7600) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7490 with the first target at 0.7557 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7600. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.7600 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7444, a further decline to 0.7375 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Daily analysis of USDX for August 02, 2017

USDX remains supported by the 92.80 level and it's now forming a lower low pattern. The bearish structure remains solid below the 200 SMA and that's why we're expecting that a lower continuation takes place towards the support zone of 92.29. If the index manages to break above 93.49, then it can rally to test the 94.00 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.49 / 94.00

H1 chart's support levels: 92.80 / 92.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.80, take profit is at 92.29 and stop loss is at 93.31.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 02, 2017

GBP/USD has been consolidating gains in the short-term and the 200 SMA is still providing dynamic support in the short-term. To the upside, we can find a resistance around 1.3257, where bulls could gather momentum in order to reach the resistance area of 1.3364. Overall, the bullish structure remains strong and is still the preferred scenario.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3257 / 1.3364

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3129 / 1.3058

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3257, take profit is at 1.3364 and stop loss is at 1.3154.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for August 2, 2017

GBP/USD is currently in an indecisive phase after an impulsive bullish breakout above the 1.3120 resistance level recently. The trend structure is quite non-volatile which is signaling about further bullish pressure in this pair. Recently GBP has shown an increase in Manufacturing PMI report at 55.1 from the previous value of 54.2 which was expected to be at 54.4. Today GBP Construction PMI report is going to be published which is expected to slightly decrease to 54.2 from the previous value of 54.8 and BRC Shop Index report is expected to show some positive change which previously was negative at -0.3%. Though the Bank of England rate hike decision is pending and any positive or negative result on the Interest Rate decision will lead to further correction or gain in this pair in the future. On the USD side, today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 187k from the previous value 158k and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit to -4.4M from the previous value of -7.2M. USD has been quite negative with the economic reports and as of the policy discussed by Trump about the Dollar, weakness can lead to further weakness leading to further gains on the GBP side in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has been quite indecisive recently which is expected to lead to bearish pressure in the market. As the price has broken above the 1.3120 with an impulsive market pressure the following corrective retracement is quite expected in the current situation. The price is expected to reach 1.3120 before proceeding up higher with a target towards 1.3370 resistance level in the coming days. As the price remains above the 1.3120 with a daily close the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Attention to inflation in the US: the RFE index at 12.30 London time

Attention to inflation in the US: the RFE index at 12.30 London time

Morning review

The rate of the EUR / USD pair has had a new breakout to the daily level of 1.1776 to the top reaching 1.1844.

Yesterday, there were profits gained at 1.1815.

There is a new level in the upside at 1.1844, but it looks quite unattractive to enter the top unless a correction occurs.

It is very likely that this will be one of the important news of this week.

For today, the first one is a report on US consumers' incomes / expenditures and the RFE inflation index at 12.30 London time.

For now, there are no positions on the euro.

Remarkably, the franc persists to wait for the start of a "for dollar" trend.

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Brent wore rose-colored glasses

Encouraged by the intentions of Saudi Arabia to reduce exports, the decline in US stocks and production, and the weak US dollar, oil managed to close July in positive territory. This is the first month this year that prices remained in the green zone, which indicates a change in the perspective of investors. They start to understand that the bottom on Brent is in the region of $40-45 per barrel, and actively build up the long positions. As a result, speculative long positions on WTI reached the maximum level for three months, and the combined shorts for the North Sea and Texan grades fell to the lowest level since November. The short-term contracts for Brent in the futures market moved from contango to backwardation, which signals that the physical asset market is close to the balance sheet.

Dynamics of speculative positions and oil prices

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Source: Bloomberg.

The market is euphoric, but it is unlikely that anyone projects that oil will go for a mark of $60 per barrel. According to Bloomberg experts, based on the results of the week, US stocks will decrease by 3.3 million barrels by July 28, which will be the fifth five-day decline in a row. Nonetheless, the figure is 90 million barrels higher than the historical average for this period of the year. At the same time, the US produces 9.41 million b/d, which is the highest level since 2015. Let the shale companies discuss weak financial results in the first and second quarters, but the current increase in prices for black gold will make it necessary to activate hedging operations, which refers to the "bearish" factors for Brent and WTI.

Do not wear rose-colored glasses about Saudi Arabia's desire to cut exports. In July, OPEC oil production increased by 210 thousand b/d, to 32.87 million b/d. According to Commerzbank's research, even a strong global demand will not help the cartel to widen the supply deficit by more than 500, 000 b/d in the second half of the year.

There is no unequivocally correct opinion on the medium-term prospects of the US dollar. The US economy grew by 2.6% q/q in the second quarter. Consumers felt confident that, amid a strong labor market, there will be an acceleration of inflation. As a result, the chances of a third act of monetary restriction in 2017 will increase, and the USD index will pull away from the area of multi-month lows.

Thus, the increase of hedging volumes by American producers, the prevailing confusion within OPEC and the potential correction in the US dollar allows the discussion regarding the limited growth potential of Brent and WTI.

Technically, futures for the North Sea variety are moving within the framework of the upward trading channel. Breakthrough resistance at $50.1 and $51.05 per barrel contributed to the implementation of "bulls" target by 78.6% over the reversed pattern of Gartley. If within the next week or two buyers manage to gain a foothold above the level of 23.6% of the last rising wave, then they will have a chance to go to $56 and $57. In the opposite case, mid-term consolidation is expected in the range of $46-54 per barrel.

Brent, daily chart

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 1, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with the 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry if any bearish pullback occurs.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 1, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until a breakout in either direction is confirmed.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1710, 1.1850 and 1.2000.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a temporary bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level is located around 1.1720-1.1750 (the high of August 2015) where price action should be watched for a bearish pullback.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched if a bearish pullback occurs.

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EUR/CHF analysis for August 01, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/CHF pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1453. Anyway, today the price went to test the upward trend line (support), which is holding good and my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The stochastic is showing an oversold condition, which is another good sign of strength. Upward targets are set at the prices of 1.1450 and 1.1500.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1495

R2: 1.1540

R3: 1.1620

Support levels:

S1: 1.1370

S2: 1.1285

S3: 1.1240

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for August 01, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3239. Anyway, according to the 15M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.3225, which is a sign that buying looks risky today. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator and a broken upward trend line, which is another sign of potential weakness. The downward targets are set at the prices of 1.3170,1.3150 and 1.3100.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3260

R2: 1.3310

R3: 1.3390

Support levels:

S1: 1.3130

S2: 1.3050

S3: 1.3000

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 1, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair is in a strong bullish mode; it trended upwards yesterday continuing the general bullishness that has been seen so far this year. The price is currently above the support line at 1.1800 and it may reach the resistance line at 1.1850, which would be breached to the upside if the price goes further upwards to test another resistance line at 1.1900.

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USD/CHF: USD/CHF went sideways on Monday, while the bullish signal that was generated last week is still intact. As long as CHF is weak, the bullish signal in the market would be sustained. While the resistance level at 0.9700 could be tested once again, the market would go down in case CHF gains stamina.

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GBP/USD: The Cable has added additional 130 pips this week, having gained over 350 pips within the last few weeks. There is the Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart. Further upward movement is anticipated, as the price goes towards the distribution territories at 1.3250, 1.3300 and 1.3350.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has gone further downwards. In this market, any rallies ought to be seen as opportunities to sell short, for the outlook on the market is bearish for this week and this month. The next targets for bears are located at the demand levels of 110.00 and 109.50, which would be reached within the next several trading days.

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EUR/JPY: EUR/JPY is in a consolidation mode and the bias in the market has become neutral. Further consolidation would put more emphasis on the current neutrality in the market. Movements below the demand zone at 128.50 would result in a bearish signal, while a movement above the supply zone at 130.50 would result in a bullish signal.

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