Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 14, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, reportedly accepted clients of the US cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Gemini.

The media report quotes unknown sources apparently familiar with the matter, which emphasize that for the first time a banking giant has served clients from the cryptographic industry. Both accounts were accepted in April and transactions are beginning to be processed. JPMorgan Chase does not process Bitcoins or other cryptocurrency transactions on behalf of exchanges, but provides cash management services and supports US dollar transactions for US customers. According to reports, the bank will process all transfers and deposits and withdrawals in dollars via the Automated Clearing House network.

Sources say that both exchanges were asked to undergo a rigorous verification process, which indicates the long-standing reluctance of major banks to establish relationships with crypto-related companies.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD has been seen moving up towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $9,249 and recently violated this level. The local high was made at the level of $9,381 and this is the level of local technical resistance as well. Any breakout higher will open the road towards the level of $9,704 and $10,000 again. Positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,485

WR2 - $10,709

WR1 - $9,512

Weekly Pivot - $8,760

WS1 - $7,652

WS2 - $6,835

WS3 - $5,708

Trading Recommendations:

The recent rally in Bitcoin was made in anticipation of Bitcoin halving and it is a classic pump and dump scheme. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

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NZDUSD holding below descending trendline! Further drop expected.

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.60011

Reason for Entry: descending trendline resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Take Profit : 0.59379

Reason for Take Profit: 161.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 0.60473

Reason for Stop loss: Recent swing high, 50% Fibonacci retracement

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 14. The music did not play long. Pound resumes decline after slight growth

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell resulted in the British pound's fall against the US dollar after a slight upward correction, which could be seen during the release of the report on the rate of decline in UK GDP. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how at the beginning of the US session there was a breakout and consolidation above the 1.2310 level, as well as its test from top to bottom, which was a good signal to open long positions in GBP/USD. However, the Fed chairman's speech crossed out all of the bullish plans, which resulted in a return to 1.2310 and the demolition of stop orders. The only thing you could count on in this situation was to buy immediately on the rebound from a low of 1.2211 (which I indicated in my review), which made it possible to compensate for losses from an unsuccessful transaction in the morning. At the moment, buyers have partially retreated to the 1.2203 level, and forming a false breakout on it in the first half of the day will be a signal to buy the pound against the trend, which will lead to an upward correction and the pair will return to the resistance area of 1.2271, where the bulls will immediately have problems. A further target will be a high of 1.2323, where I recommend taking profit. If the pressure on GBP/USD persists in the morning after the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of a low of 1.2170 or even to buy a rebound from a larger support 1.2127 counting on a correction of 30-40 points inside the day.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers continue to bend their line and pull down the pound. At the moment, their task is to break through and consolidate below 1.2203 support, without which I do not recommend selling the breakout of current lows due to the likelihood of a downward reversal from current lows. The key objectives of the bears at the end of the week will be the levels of 1.2170 and 1.2127, where I recommend taking profits. More acceptable scenarios for opening short positions will be the upward correction of the pound, which can form after the speech of the head of the Bank of England. A false break at 1.2271 will be the first signal to sell the pound. However, it is worthwhile to understand that the downward movement of GBP/USD from this range should be quite fast, since in the absence of activity on the part of large players it is best to postpone short positions and sell the pound immediately for a rebound from a high of 1.2323 per 30-40 correction points within a day.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with other forecasts:

Trading plan for the European session on the EURUSD pair for May 14

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the pound trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the region of 1.2300. Downward movement will be limited by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2170.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
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USD/JPY Price Movement For May 14, 2020

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The 40-year seasonal tendency (1978-2017) for the Japanese Yen Futures signals that the futures tend to show strength on the first week of May and they get weaker on the second week until the next month (1st week of June). In fact, during the first week of May, USD/JPY weakened. When the pair entered the second week, the price went upwards. Based on this information, we predict that USD/JPY is poised to go down to fill the Liquidity Void (106.79-106.55) and reach 106.53 as the nearest Liquidity Pool. However, this scenario will be canceled on the following two conditions:

1. USD/JPY will move upwards and break out above 107.29.

2. All the targets are not hit until the next week (May 18, 2020).

(Disclaimer).

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 14, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

During a conversation at the Consensus: Distributed event, Changpeng Zhao, CEO and founder of Binance, said the largest cryptocurrency exchange is experiencing a sharp increase in the number of user registrations.

Zhao noticed that new registrations among Bitcoin halving have approached levels that were recently observed during the peak of 2017. CEO Binance also noted that the exchange customer service department receives a large number of requests that indicate a high level of activity among completely new or sporadic ones users, including requests from "new users depositing at the wrong addresses" and "many older users resetting passwords" after long periods of inactivity.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high located at the level of $200.13 after the bounce from 61% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, ETH is testing the technical resistance located at $198.71 and in a case of violation of this level, the bulls might rally towards the trend line resistance. The momentum turns to positive, so it supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $241.59

WR2 - $228.78

WR1 - $204.66

Weekly Pivot - $191.03

WS1 - $168.45

WS2 - $154.83

WS3 - $130.49

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the second wave of coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets, nevertheless the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for May 14, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD was rejected at the level of 50% Fibonacci located at 1.0892 after a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the end of the wave up. The bears are pushing the price towards the level of 1.0767 again. The bulls hasn't made a new local high yet, so the next target for them is still seen at the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0921. This level must be clearly violated in order to rally towards the swing high at 1.1017. The momentum remains neutral, but might turn negative any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1136

WR2 - 1.1058

WR1 - 1.0936

Weekly Pivot - 1.0853

WS1 - 1.0718

WS2 - 1.0627

WS3 - 1.0520

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets. On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for May 14, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken below another technical support located at the level of 1.2246 and made a new local low at the level of 1.2205. The momentum remains negative well and the odds for another wave down might be higher. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2246 and 1.2297 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of 1.2165. If the level of 1.2165 is clearly violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of 12012.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2730

WR2 - 1.2608

WR1 - 1.2508

Weekly Pivot - 1.2380

WS1 - 1.2283

WS2 - 1.2157

WS3 - 1.2054

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the corona virus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 14. Jerome Powell interfered with the plans of euro buyers. Under the scope

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell resulted in the euro's fall against the US dollar. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how an unsuccessful attempt to grow above 1.0881 led to forming a false breakout, and then to a sell-off of the euro to the support area of 1.0835, which the bears managed to gain a foothold below in the afternoon, which kept the market on their side. Currently, euro buyers need to concentrate on maintaining support at 1.0787, since forming a false breakout in this range will be the first signal to open long positions, which can lead to an upward correction in the area of the middle of the side channel of 1.0835. Movement above this level will directly depend on inflation data in Germany and reports on Italy and France. Consolidating at 1.0835 will be an excellent signal to continue the euro's growth in the area of yesterday's high at 1.0881, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of EUR/USD decline to the 1.0787 level, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of new local lows near 1.0728 and 1.0636, from which you can buy the pair based on a rebound of 30-35 points within a day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD you need:

Sellers managed to take control of the 1.0835 level yesterday, and the primary task at the European session is to defend it. Forming a false breakout at this level, along with a weak report on German inflation, will be a signal to open short positions in continuing the downward trend. However, a more important goal is to break through and consolidate below support 1.0787. This will increase the pressure on the euro and result in updating lows around 1.0728, and then to the large support test 1.0636, where I recommend taking profits. If active sales after the correction to the 1.0835 level do not follow, it is best to postpone short positions in EUR/USD until the test of a larger high of 1.0881, which is also the upper boundary of the side channel, or sell the euro immediately on the rebound from resistance 1.0923 per correction at 25 -30 points intraday.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with other forecasts:

Trading plan for the European session on the GBPUSD pair for May 14

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bearish attempt to resume a downward trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper border of the indicator at 1.0881. A break of the lower border around 1.0787 will result in a sharper decline.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
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AUD/USD Price Movement For May 14, 2020

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The AUD/USD is now trying to move to the liquidity void 0.6443-0.6399. It is likely to try to break through the nearest liquidity pool at the 0.6374. If this level is broken out, this pair will continue to decline. It may test the next liquidity void at the 0.6338-0.6302. however, this scenario will be canceled if the pair edges above the 0.6470 level.

The overall bias for AUD/USD now is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 14, 2020

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EUR/JPY has seen a corrective decline from the minor peak at 116.86 which we see as wave i/ and the ongoing correction into the 115.32 - 115.61 area is wave ii/. Once this corrective decline is completed, we will see a new strong rally in wave iii/ towards at least 119.34 and possibly even closer to resistance near 121.16.

In the short-term, a break above minor resistance at 116.37 will indicate that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ higher is in motion.

R3: 116.86

R2: 116.37

R1: 115.92

Pivot: 115.68

S1: 115.61

S2: 115.32

S3: 115.15

Trading recommendation:

WE bought EUR at 115.65 and we have placed our stop at 114.35

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for May 14, 2020

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EUR/GBP is again trying to break through the key-resistance at 0.8866. It should be a matter of time before this resistance is wiped out and a strong rally towards 0.9066 will start. The pair may grow above the former peak at 0.9499.

Support is currently seen at 0.8815, which we expect will be able to protect the downside before the next attempt to break above the key resistance at 0.8866.

R3: 0.8913

R2: 0.8866

R1: 0.8852

Pivot: 0.8838

S1: 0.8815

S2: 0.8795

S3: 0.8775

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8760 with our stop placed at 0.8670

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Control zones for NZD / USD on May 14, 2020

The pair is currently consolidating below last week's low. If trading closes below the level of 0.5988, the probability of a further decline will increase to 75%, and the next goal of the fall will be the lower zone of the weekly average movement. Trading within the downward move will allow us to keep previously opened sales, as well as look for favorable prices for opening new ones.

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The current decline has a strong impulse structure, so purchases from current levels, without the reversal of the daily level, are unprofitable.

An alternative scenario will develop, if today's trading closes above the WCZ 1/2 0.6046-0.6039. This will indicate the appearance of a large buyer and a change in priority to purchases. The probability of this scenario happening is 25%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for EURUSD on 05/14/20

Work in the downward direction is the main one. Yesterday's selloff from WCZ 1/2 1.0867-1.0858 can be partially consolidated when updating the monthly low. The rest should be transferred to breakeven and left in case of a further fall to the April low, which coincides with the monthly control zone in May.

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WCZ 1/2 1.0728-1.0719 will be another goal on the way to pulling down the euro. Purchases from current marks are not profitable.

Forming an alternative model will require the absorption of yesterday's fall and the closure of today's trade above the WCZ 1/2. This will cancel the bearish model and enable you to search for purchases. The probability of implementing this model is 25%, which makes it secondary. Retaining sales is the best strategy at the end of this week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for GBP / USD on May 14, 2020

Bearish mood persists in this week's trading. The first goal of the decline has already been achieved, and the weekly CZ 1.2210-1.2167 will be the basis for further movement. If the testing today leads to an increase in demand, as well as "absorption" of the daily level, sales should be consolidated, and favorable prices should be sought out for purchases.

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The probability of a reversal at the current levels does not exceed 50%, so purchases with limit orders in the weekly short term are not profitable.

So far, the probability that the decline will continue is 50%. The signal that would confirm it is the consolidation of prices below the level of 1.2167, to which if it happens, the next target for the decline is 1.1984, the lower zone of the weekly average movement.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for AUD/USD on 05/14/20

Yesterday, the pair re-tested the weekly control zone 1/2 0.6532-0.6523, which led to the formation of a sell pattern. The first goal of the decline is the weekly control zone of 0.6382-0.6364. When testing this zone, it is necessary to consolidate a part of sales, while the rest can be left to the level of 0.6322, which is the upper boundary of the monthly control zone in April.

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The downward movement will be the main direction until the end of this week, so holding a short position is the best strategy.

An alternative growth pattern will be developed if today's trading closes above the opening level. This will allow you to create an accumulation zone and get favorable prices for repeated sales. On the other hand, purchases are not profitable due to the high probability of the price returning to the level of 0.6322.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 14, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound was pinned under the MACD indicator line on the daily chart yesterday, and now the price tends to be even lower, under the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. The Marlin is falling in the zone of negative values, the nearest target of 1.1935 at the Fibonacci level of 200.0% is open.

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The price is under both indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. It is possible to open short positions in the market with a target above 1.1935 and stop loss above 1.2255.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 14, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro traded in the range of 86 points on Wednesday, taking note of the resistance of the MACD line on the daily chart, it ended the day with a loss of 28 points. The Marlin oscillator did not leave the zone of negative values. We are waiting for the euro to support the price channel in the region of 1.0590.

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The price lies on the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Going below the line below 1.0810 will be the primary signal for an intraday price drop. In this case, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will also be in the negative trend zone. The euro's fall to the signal level of 1.0767, which has been the lower boundary of the trading range since April, opens the way to a medium-term decline, below 1.0500.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on May 14, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar repeated Tuesday's fluctuating scenario on Wednesday, and so it also ended the day with a moderate decline. The main conclusion of those days was the aussie's comprehension of the strength of the technical resistance of the price channel line on the daily chart. Now the price appears with more confident bearish targets: 0.6355, 0.6255 (support of the MACD line), 0.6130.

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This morning the price passed the signal level of 0.6433 (May 12 low) on the four-hour chart, which indicates the beginning of a decisive price decline. The Marlin oscillator is already in the negative zone.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on May 14, 2020

USD/JPY

The US stock market has been falling for two days, increasing the talk of a second wave of market decline. The S&P 500 fell by 1.75% yesterday. The yen strengthened by 11 points. The price is in no hurry to leave the consolidation range between the two lines of the price channel on the daily chart. But when this happens, the price will overcome the support at 106.56, before it opens the road to 105.10 and further to 103.95.

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The price has consolidated below the MACD indicator line (moving blue) on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. We are waiting for the development of a downward trend.

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Hot forecast and intraday trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on May 14. COT report. Bears reached the important zone of

GBP/USD 1H

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There has been an openly downward trend for the GBP/USD pair in the last few days on the hourly chart. Bears attack very strongly, bulls have nothing to oppose. However, traders met a barrier in the form of a support area of 1.2198 - 1.2216 on their way down, which formed on April 3-7. Thus, a high probability of a new price rebound from this area. At the same time, overcoming this support area will support the bears in technical terms, and they will be able to continue their movement to two support levels of 1.2164 and 1.2062. A downward channel unambiguously indicates a downward trend, in addition to it there is a downward trend line with three pivots at once. Both of these patterns support sellers and are ready to signal the completion of a downward movement if quotes go above them.

GBP/USD 15M.

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We have two linear regression channels on the 15-minute timeframe, which are also directed downwards and signal a downward trend. However, there is also a CCI indicator entering the "-200" area, which is a signal to turn up. Together with a possible rebound from the area of 1.2198 - 1.2216 on the hourly timeframe, we can get a strong signal to complete the downward trend. In fact, this signal has already been formed. It remains only to understand whether it is false. This is relatively easy to do. If the quotes update yesterday's low, then most likely the signal will be recognized as false, and the CCI indicator will form a divergence (it will increase with a further fall in the pair quotes).

COT report.

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The latest COT report for May 5 shows that the total number of buy and sell transactions among large traders per week decreased by 1200. Thus, the general mood has not changed and remains "moderately upward" despite the fact that the pound has become cheaper in the last few days. However, the pound is getting cheaper in the short term, and COT reports published once a week are more relevant to the long term.

No macroeconomic publications in the UK on Thursday are planned. Consequently, the macroeconomic background for the pound/dollar pair will be reduced only to a report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States (primary and secondary). We believe that the next and an additional several million unemployed in the United States could create little pressure on the US dollar's position. However, we should not forget that traders are ignoring almost all the data that is at their disposal. Thus, technical factors will have a higher priority in determining the further dynamics of the pair. We have two main options for the development of the event on May 14:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of the bears, since the price is located inside the downward channel. However, a rebound from the 1.2198 - 1.2216 area is a strong signal to turn up, especially in conjunction with the CCI signal on the 15-minute timeframe. Thus, we recommend working out this signal with targets at the level of 1.2283, the Kijun-sen line (1.2337) and the Senkou Span B line (1.2453). A price rebound from any of these targets, or from a downward trend line, or from the upper border of the channel can serve as a signal for manual closing of buy-positions. Take Profit will be about 60 points in the first case, 110 points in the second and 230 points if the pair gets to the third goal.

2) Sellers will be able to continue moving down if they manage to overcome the strong support area 1.2198 - 1.2216. Then we recommend continuing sales or staying in them with goals 1.2164 and 1.2062. In these cases, Take Profit can range from 30 to 130 points.

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Hot forecast and intraday trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on May 14. COT report. Traders are returning to 1.0780. Overcoming

EUR/USD 1H

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Quotes of the euro/dollar pair rose yesterday to the Senkou Span B line and the resistance area of 1.0881 - 1.0893 on the hourly timeframe, from which they had already rebounded several times before. And this time the pair rebounded off this strong area and line. Thus, a new round of downward movement began in the direction of the long-term upward trend line, which lies in the area of 1.0780. If the pair once again rebounds off this trend line, then the upward movement will resume again, perhaps even back to the Senkou Span B line. Overcoming the trend line will enable the US currency to continue its downward movement.

EUR/USD 15M.

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We see quotes sharply dropping on the 15-minute timeframe during the US trading session on May 13. Quotes are near the lower boundaries of two linear regression channels at once, so the probability of a turn up is high. Along with this, the CCI indicator came close to the critical area of "-200", the entry into which is a strong signal to turn up. Therefore, forming this signal will enable us to expect the euro's growth. The smallest linear regression channel is directed downward, so further reduction is also allowed. An ideal option would be for the CCI indicator to enter the "-200" area near the upward trend on the hourly timeframe.

COT report.

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The latest COT report of May 5 showed a decrease in the number of transactions for purchase among large traders by 3,778 and a decrease in the number of transactions for sale by 5.069. Thus, the downward mood slightly weakened for the euro. But, since the total number of sales contracts exceeds the number of purchase contracts, the overall trend still remains downward.

As we have repeatedly said in fundamental reviews, market participants are ignoring the entire macroeconomic background. Today, the United States is set to report on applications for unemployment benefits, which is almost guaranteed to usher in an additional few million unemployed Americans. Thus, even if the value of the indicator turns out to be slightly better than the forecast, we do not believe that it will be a reason for joy. This means that in the afternoon we can expect the US currency to fall (the growth of the EUR/USD pair). Again, a reversal is very likely near the upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe. You should also carefully monitor the CCI on the 15-minute timeframe. Good reasons are needed for the pair to fall further. There are not so many planned important events on Thursday; overcoming the trend line is likely to happen on Friday, when a report on GDP is published in the European Union.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for May 14:

1) On Thursday, we expect the pair's quotes to fall to the trend line and/or the area of 1.0763 - 1.0775. Those traders who are already in sell-offs after rebounding from the Senkou Span B line can support open sell positions with the target of 1.0780. It is recommended to open sell positions for the pair only in the event of overcoming the trend line. The potential to take profit is about 35 points in the first case, and about 30 points for the target of 1.0745.

2) The second option - bullish - implies a rebound from the long-term ascending trend line. We recommend that you open purchases of the euro in this case with the goal of Senkou Span B line - 1.0893, especially if the CCI indicator on the 15-minute chart goes into the "-200" area beforehand. The potential to take profit in the execution of this scenario is at least 100 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. May 14. US senators are preparing a bill to allow Donald Trump to impose sanctions against

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -173.6052

The British pound starts the fourth trading day of the week in a downward movement inside the same 400-point side channel, continuing to approach its lower border. Thus, in the near future, the pound/dollar pair may be followed by an upward reversal with further movement to the area of the Murray level of "7/8"-1.2634. At the same time, the pair can overcome the lower border of the channel and thus start forming a new downward trend. We note that the lower border of the channel has an indistinct price value and can run even at the level of 1.2165 – the minimum from April 7. The CCI indicator is getting closer to the "-200" area, entering which can serve as a strong signal to turn up.

In the article on the euro/dollar, we talked about two epics that are starting now in the United States. The first and most important of them is a new confrontation between China and the United States, which can turn into a new trade war and the introduction of mutual sanctions and restrictions. Earlier, we said that Donald Trump believes China is to blame for the spread of the COVID-2019 virus across the planet, and also accuses Beijing of misinformation and belatedly releasing all the details of the virus. Thus, according to the leader of the United States, Beijing must be held accountable. As a punishment, Washington considers various measures, ranging from the introduction of new trade duties, ending with international courts, and the demand for compensation. According to the latest information, the US leader's threats were not ignored by Congress and the Senate and were not unfounded. The US government supports the initiative of Trump "to recover to the fullest extent" with China. US Senator Lindsey Graham introduced a bill that allows for sanctions against China for the spread of "coronavirus". The draft law "on responsibility for COVID-19" proposes to impose sanctions if Beijing does not provide a full report on what happened in Wuhan. "I am sure that without the deception of the Chinese Communist party, the virus would not have existed in the United States. China refuses to allow the international community to investigate the laboratory in Wuhan. They prohibit an investigation into how the outbreak started. I am sure that China will never cooperate if it is not forced to," Senator Graham said. It is reported that 8 more Republican senators supported the bill. Senator Graham believes that if China does not provide all the necessary information, the United States can freeze Chinese assets, ban Chinese officials from entering the United States, revoke visas, prohibit financial organizations from issuing loans to any Chinese individuals and legal entities, and prohibit Chinese companies from placing their securities on the American stock market. At the same time, it is also reported that representatives of the US Democratic party do not support the introduction of new sanctions and duties against China.

According to many political analysts, such a step on the part of Trump's followers from the ranks of the Republican party may help their leader to "whitewash" himself a little. Many Americans now think that the government failed to fight the "coronavirus" and blame it on Trump. In addition, the absolute majority of US residents do not support the early completion of "lockdown", which can lead to new outbreaks of the pandemic throughout the country. Thus, the US leader seems to continue to push the idea of "China's guilt" into the American masses. In fact, he has no other choice. Americans should fully believe that China is responsible for 80,000 deaths and more than 1 million illnesses. The Democratic party, which has always been loyal to China, may also suffer from such actions by Trump. The US President can use this loyalty to denigrate the candidacy of Joe Biden, who has always been very friendly to China. However, there is one "but". Any sanctions that Washington decides to impose will most likely be duplicated by China itself against the United States. You can't punish China unilaterally without hurting yourself. Thus, the introduction of any sanctions by Washington potentially threatens a new round of trade and not only conflict between Beijing and Washington. If the sanctions are not economic in nature, then this is still half the trouble. But if new duties are imposed and old agreements are torn up, this will cause an additional blow to the global economy.

However, most experts are inclined to believe that Donald Trump will not start a new trade and economic war with China in the near future. A new war means new losses, and the American economy is already not in the best condition. A new decline, especially caused by the trade and economic war, will definitely be associated with the name of Donald Trump and his political ratings will fall even more.

On the fourth trading day of the week, a small number of macroeconomic publications are planned in America, and in the European Union and the UK, they will not be at all. In the United States, the next report on applications for unemployment benefits for the week of May 8 will be released. According to forecasts, another 2.5 million Americans will apply for benefits during this week, and the number of secondary applications for benefits will reach 25.1 million as of May 1. Thus, we do not expect positive news tomorrow from overseas. So far, the British pound continues to fall in price against the US currency. However, firstly, most of the macroeconomic information continues to be ignored by market participants, and secondly, the pound/dollar pair remains within a wide side channel and has not yet left it. Therefore, technical factors remain the most important when determining the direction of trading.

Meanwhile, the UK came out on top in the European Union in the number of cases of the COVID virus-2019. The total number is 231,000. The total number of deaths from the pandemic is 33,263 and this is also the worst figure in Europe. Despite this, the quarantine in the UK is easing and in this country is very similar to America, where there are also not too many signs of slowing down the epidemic, but the authorities are trying to complete the "lockdown" as soon as possible. In fact, why be surprised if these two countries are ruled by friends Boris Johnson and Donald Trump, who regularly flatter each other and want to be friends with each other?

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair has increased slightly in recent days and is currently 130 points. For the pound, this is still not too much, and there are no signs of a serious increase in volatility yet. On Thursday, May 14, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2108 and 1.2368. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2207

S2 – 1.2146

S3 – 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2268

R2 – 1.2329

R3 – 1.2390

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, formally, sell orders with targets of 1.2146 and 1.2108 remain relevant now, but the downward momentum may dry up around the mark of 1.2165. On the approach to the lower border of the side channel, we believe it is not advisable to sell the pair. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar not before fixing the price back above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2390 and 1.2451.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. May 14. Donald Trump is again pressing the Fed to lower rates. Elon Musk opens factories in

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CSI: -39.1184

On Thursday, May 14, the EUR/USD currency pair starts with the resumption of a downward movement within the side channel. However, the pair's movements in recent days no longer resemble movements between the borders of the channel with a width of 250 points, but "swings" in the range of 120 points. Thus, the pair is getting closer to an outright flat. Yesterday, for example, the fall in quotes was triggered by the speech of Jerome Powell, who assured the markets that he is not going to lower the Fed's key rate even more, as Donald Trump wants. Let's see what happens today. In any case, traders should take into account the possible flat channel of 1.0777-1.0897 in the medium term.

Over the past few years, we have been writing regularly about a British epic called "Brexit". Now two similar epics are brewing in the United States. The first is a new trade war with China, a conflict on the basis of the "coronavirus" epidemic, the second is the exit from the so-called "lockdown". The situation in the second epic is as follows. Donald Trump is in favor of restarting the economy as quickly as possible. However, it cannot "open" each individual state, it does not have such powers. The powers are vested in state governors, some of whom are Democrats and some of whom are Republicans. It is obvious that the Republicans are ready to go to a meeting with Trump or are simply afraid of his anger since they are members of the same political party. But the Democrats are not afraid to openly go against Trump, but in the case of the completion of the "lockdown", no Governor can be accused of deliberately not wanting to open his state to "annoy" the President. Recall that the country's chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, who in recent weeks regularly denied the statements of the US President, believes that it is not necessary to rush to complete or weaken the quarantine. Many representatives of the healthcare sector are in solidarity with him, who, unlike Trump and all his followers, hospitalize people with COVID-2019 every day and regularly see deaths from this disease, for which there is no vaccine. And although the percentage of deaths from "coronavirus" is not high, nevertheless, 83,000 deaths have already been recorded in the United States, the most in the world. Anthony Fauci believes that "the epidemic in the US is not under control". In addition, the chief epidemiologist of the United States said that children do not have any immunity to the disease, and a new wave of diseases is possible in the fall. Fauci also said that the premature opening of the economy with jumping through entire phases of a gradual exit from quarantine may cause a new danger that can not be controlled. "The main message I want to convey is the danger of premature opening of the country. If we jump over the key points of the recommendations, we run the risk of multiple outbreaks across the country. This will not only lead to new diseases and deaths but also set us back on the path to restoring the usual rhythm of life," Fauci concluded.

However, President Trump does not seem to listen at all to representatives of the health care sector and is obsessed with the idea of restoring the economy to work as quickly as possible. In this, almost the only way to win the election in November 2020 is to revive the economy as quickly as possible. To achieve this goal, Trump is ready to quarrel with anyone, including state governors. For example, most recently, billionaire Elon Musk voluntarily resumed work at Tesla factories in Alameda County, California, despite a ban by federal authorities. Before breaking the law, Elon Musk had a conversation with Donald Trump, during which the American President, of course, approved of such a decision by Musk. However, in this case, the approval of Trump does not mean anything, because, as we have already said, it is not Trump who decides when to end the quarantine in a particular state. As a result, all this turns into a conflict between Elon Musk and the authorities of the city of Alameda, which can smoothly turn into a trial. Trump himself publicly supported Elon Musk, writing on Twitter: "California should allow Tesla and Elon Musk to open factories immediately. This can be done quickly and safely!"

At the same time, as the American economy continues to collapse, Donald Trump wants to use all available means to maintain it. And one of these ways is to put new pressure on the Fed and Jerome Powell. If earlier Trump wanted rates to be close or equal to zero, now he believes that Powell should lower rates to the negative zone. "While other countries benefit from negative interest rates, the US should also accept this "gift"," Trump wrote on Twitter.

Well, so far we only see that Trump is ready to sacrifice tens of thousands of American citizens, ready even to sacrifice the economy itself. Because he doesn't have much time until November. Donald Trump is going all in. Either in the coming months it will be possible to restart the economy, despite the "coronavirus" or even if the economy finally collapses due to a new outbreak of the epidemic, it will not be worse for Trump. Joe Biden can only wait. Wait and watch for Trump's desperate attempts to increase his political ratings. Almost every action of the US leader can now be absolutely calm and reasonably criticized. For example, Trump's desire to hold campaign rallies in the United States during the quarantine.

What all this means for the US dollar. At the moment, only that in the future, the markets may begin to get rid of the US currency due to the short-sightedness of the actions and decisions of the American leader. However, the dollar exchange rate does not depend only on Ameria. In Europe, we will remind you that a stronger economic downturn is expected. Moreover, in Europe, a conflict is brewing between the European authorities and Germany, which may end with the courts and the exit of the rebel country from the Alliance. In addition, Italy, Spain and other countries most affected by the pandemic require urgent assistance from the EU authorities, which, in fact, is blocked by Germany, which is desperate not to pay for other people's mistakes. Many experts believe that as a result of the "coronavirus" crisis, the European Union may collapse.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of May 14 is 75 points. Thus, the indicator remains stable, and its value is now characterized as "average". Today, we expect quotes to move between the levels of 1.0746 and 1.0892. The upward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal a new round of upward movement within the channel of 1.0750-1.1000 but within the channel of 1.0777-1.0897.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0803

S2 – 1.0742

S3 – 1.0681

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0864

R2 – 1.0925

R3 – 1.0986

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed back below the moving average, so at the moment, formally, short positions are again relevant. However, we are increasingly inclined to the fact that the pair is now in the flat, as indicated by the moving, directed sideways for several days. Thus, it is best to start trading down if the lower limits of both side channels (1.0777 and 1.0750) are overcome. It is also recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair after the quotes exit from the side channel, that is, above 1.0897 with the goal of 1.1000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com