Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for April 4, 2018

EUR/AUD has been in a non-volatile bullish trend since January 2018, which is expected to proceed much higher as of the current market structure. After the recent bearish pressure off the 1.62 price area, currently, the price is showing some impulsive bullish intervention. Today EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate decreased to 10.9% from the previous value of 11.1% which was expected to be at 11.0%. Moreover, CPI Flash Estimate report was published as expected at 1.4% increase from the previous value of 1.1%, Core CPI Flash Estimate report was published unchanged at 1.0% which was expected to increase to 1.1% and Unemployment Rate was also published with a decrease as expected to 8.5% from the previous value of 8.6%. On the AUD side, today the economic reports were quite mixed in nature which did not help the currency to the extent as expected. Today AUD Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%, Building Approvals report did not meet the expectation of -5.1% and resulted to -6.2% decrease from the previous 17.2%. As of the current scenario, a good amount of volatility is expected in the pair as AUD Trade Balance report and series of EUR economic reports are yet to be published this week. EUR is currently expected to have an upper hand over AUD but any impulsive bearish pressure may turn the table anytime this week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.60 price area with confluence support of dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price is currently quite bullish in nature which will be confirmed with a daily close above 1.60. As the price remains above 1.59 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 04, 2018

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Overview

The Gold price rallies upwards strongly now to breach 1335.40 level and attempts to hold above it which makes us stay aside until we confirm the price behavior according to the mentioned level, as holding above it will push the price to its bullish track that its next target located at 1365.97, while trading below it again will push the price to target 1316.48 level. The expected trading range for today is between 1320.00 support and 1355.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 04, 2018

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Overview

The Silver price continues to move inside the sideways range that appears on the chart which keeps the sideways trading valid on the intraday basis, noting that the contradiction between stochastic positivity and the EMA50 negativity supports the chances of continuing the sideways fluctuation. The lines of the mentioned range are represented by 16.15 support and 16.80 resistance, reminding you that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to visit 15.49 level mainly while breaching the resistance will lead the price to resume its main bullish track that its main targets begin at 17.43. The expected trading range for today is between 16.20 support and 16.60 resistance.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for April 4, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains today after breaking below 0.8750 price area recently. EUR has been quite positive with the economic reports today which helped the currency to gain impulsive momentum over GBP in this volatile market condition. Today EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate decreased to 10.9% from the previous value of 11.1% which was expected to be at 11.0%. Moreover, CPI Flash Estimate report was published as expected at 1.4% increase from the previous value of 1.1%, Core CPI Flash Estimate report was published unchanged at 1.0% which was expected to increase to 1.1% and Unemployment Rate was also published with a decrease as expected to 8.5% from the previous value of 8.6%. On the other hand, GBP has been struggling with the economic reports recently whereas today GBP Construction PMI report was published with an unexpected decrease to 47.0 from the previous figure of 51.4 which was expected to be at 50.9. As of the current scenario, the positive economic reports of EUR and worse economic reports of GBP resulted to impulsive momentum on the EUR side today which is expected to increase the volatility and corrective sentiment in the market. Until EUR comes up with a series of high impact positive economic report results, the counter bullish momentum is expected to be temporary.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 0.8750 price area from where certain bearish intervention is expected as the bearish trend is still quite powerful by now. The dynamic level of 20 EMA above the current price area is expected to resist further bullish momentum in the pair. As the price remains below 0.90 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Global macro overview for 04/04/2018

If we are to analyze the macroeconomic fundamentals, the most important issue may be the problems of the EUR. The March PMI for industry confirmed the second consecutive fall in the pace of new orders to the lowest level since November 2016. This may be one of the first signs that the global recovery in 2018 may not be as strong as at the beginning of the year it seemed, or at least the Eurozone is starting to stand out negatively. Moreover, today's Core CPI Flash Estimate data were worse than expected (1.0% vs. 1.1% expected) and the CPI Flash Estimate was in line with anticipations (1.4% vs. 1.4% expected). This makes the EUR more sensitive to the downside. Last week, values from Germany fell lower, which already fueled speculation about the ECB's weakening potential for normalization. The biggest threat to the EUR is the overhang of long speculative positions that have not worked for some time and investors' frustration may break the rate, and worse data may serve as a catalyst for yet another leg down.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still locked in a narrow horizontal consolidation zone between the levels of 0.8688 - 0.8792, but the weak momentum indicator, which is still below its fifty level, indicates a possible move down towards the level of 0.8648 in the near future. If this level is broken, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.8505.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 04, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.7245. The support is found at the level of 0.7245 which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.7245 while immediate resistance is seen at 0.7302. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.7270. So, buy above the level of 0.7270 with the first target at 0.7302 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 0.7332. Also, the level of 0.7332 is a good place to take profit. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the NZD/USD pair to climb from 0.7270 to 0.7322 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7245, a further decline to 0.7209 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Global macro overview for 04/04/2018

The USA continues the process of limiting the freedom of trade with China and, at night, presented a list of approximately 1,300 products to which 25% will be imposed a duty. Restrictions are expected to reach 50 billion USD for which the White House has allegations of misuse of intellectual property and technology originating in the US. In addition, the announcement did not bring anything new beyond what investors knew when the Trump administration made the first move as part of the trade war with China, so there is no panic sale in the markets. In response to US decisions from last month about tariffs imported into goods from China, today Beijing has announced similar restrictions for US goods. China plans to include a 25-percent with a good value of USD 50 billion, including airplanes, chemicals, whiskey, cigars, soy, maize, beef. In the first reaction, the decision hit USD and affects the deterioration of market sentiment. China's decision is equivalent to retaliation. Customs for importing soybeans will hit American farmers, some of whom depend on sales to China. In addition, regions, where soy is grown, are the backbone of Trump's support, so his trade scuffles with China may weigh on the results of the autumn election to Congress. So the details of Beijing's decision may have a hidden political bottom, which Trump can answer in his 'style'.

For now, the yesterday's rebound in Wall Street after the Monday's collapse tones emotions, but also leaves investors in a blind search for direction. Although the market participants still do not see any reasons to abandon the expectations of a widening of risk aversion in the coming weeks, at this moment there is no power to clearly approximate such a scenario. Just as well this week will be marked by the expectation of the NFP report with the hope of a strong impulse.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the new local low was made at the level of 254.64, the market has bounced towards the technical resistance at the level of 260.79 and is currently trading around this level. This is very hard to break technical resistance zone with the resistance at the levels of 260.79, 262.70, 265.70 and 266.82. So if this zone is broken again, then the bulls might target the unfilled gap between the levels of 268.89 - 270.30.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 04, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9617, while minor resistance is seen at 0.9598. Support is found at the levels of 0.9562 and 0.9535. Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 0.9578. Equally important, the USD/CHF pair is still moving around the key level at 0.9578, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. The USD/CHF pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.9578. Moreover, the pair rose from the level of 0.9535 (this level of 0.9535 coincides with the double bottom) to the top around 0.9598. In consequence, the USD/CHF pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 0.9535. The level of 0.9535 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9562 towards the target level of 0.9617. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9617, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9617 in order to reach the second target at 0.9633. Notwithstanding, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9535, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Analysis of Gold for April 04, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,344.50. According to the 30M time – frame, I found that price rejected of the strong resistance (Fibonacci expansion 61.8% and swing high), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,338.55 and at the price of $1,328.90.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,340.55

R2: $1,348.32

R3: $1,354.13

Support levels:

S1: $1,326.95

S2: $1,321.13

S3: $1,313.36

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 04, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 105.98. Anyway, according to the 15M time – frame, I found locked traders in the background and a successful breakout of the horizontal base, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 105.75 and at the price of 105.45.

Resistance levels:

R1: 106.94

R2: 107.28

R3: 107.90

Support levels:

S1: 105.97

S2: 105.35

S3: 105.01

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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The Phantom of the Global Recession

The long weekend contributed to the consolidation of major currency pairs in fairly narrow trading ranges. However, it is unlikely that the period of uncertainty will drag on for a long time.

One of the most important markers, indicating that tensions will continue to grow, is the situation in the US stock markets. On Monday, the S&P 500 index lost more than 2.5% and was on the verge of a minimum test last February 9. A breakthrough support threatened a full-fledged collapse which was good as there are plenty of reasons for this. However, the latest news from the White House allowed Amazon shares to recover. Against this, some organizational measures were expected for the entire stock market as a whole.

Nevertheless, there is no reason for complacency. The index of economic optimism IBD / TIPP which reflects the mood of consumers in relation to the prospects for the economy was published on Monday. It unexpectedly declined in April to 52.6p against 55.6p a month earlier, having lost all the acquisitions of recent months. Good data on personal expenses and the ISM index in the manufacturing sector allowed the forecast for GDP in 1 sq. Km.to rise up to 2.8%. However, this result will still be revised and, most likely, will go downward.

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Despite the seemingly good result of the economic growth in the traditionally weak first quarter, let's not forget that Trump's tax program is not working yet. The government increased the level of the national debt by 661 billion for three months, raising the total bar to more than 21 trillion dollars. In other words, the national debt grows faster than the economy, which means that the problems are only growing.

Trump's desperate attempts to be like Reagan still lead to the opposite result because the world is not the same and the US is not the same. The introduction of customs restrictions on steel and aluminum caused an angry reaction from China and an immediate response, which came into effect already on April 2. Counter measures relate primarily to the supply of agricultural products to China, which will directly damage the most dedicated Trump electorate.

The US expressed dissatisfaction with China's response measures and announced that they are preparing a new package of restrictions, which is aimed primarily at high-tech industries. If this intention is implemented, then it will be extremely difficult to keep from a full-scale currency war, since China has officially announced that it will start dedollarization of foreign trade in this case.

This will be reflected, among other things, in the transfer of the main suppliers of raw materials to China, primarily oil from the Middle East, to be paid in yuan. China can do this because it is the largest buyer of oil on the planet and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf may simply not have a choice. These steps will cause irreparable damage to the dollar as the main world currency and it is in the interests of the US administration to not allow this development.

A probable trade war is only one of the markers of the general deterioration of the business climate. The beginning of the normalization of the monetary policy of the Fed led to the fact that the global monetary offer is starting to slow down and the pace of this slowdown is much higher than predicted.

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The unpleasant conclusion from the slowdown in the growth rate of the money supply is that lending rates are declining at a high rate. If the Fed continues to reduce its balance at the planned rate of $ 50 billion a month by the fall of this year while raising rates, it is likely that the recession will begin in the US this year. Given that similar processes are observed both in the euro area and in Japan, then it is a likely onset of a global recession.

Thus, the second quarter opened against a backdrop of alarming prospects. The end of the week will pass in anticipation of the report on employment in the US. A result worse than forecasts may trigger a new wave of sales in the stock markets, which will lead to increased demand for protective assets. The latest CFTC report showed that speculators sharply increase their long positions in gold and, to a lesser extent, the Japanese yen, preparing for strong shocks.

The dollar will try to strengthen by the end of the week but the main favorites will be gold and yen, as the growth of panic moods becomes more and more probable every day.

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Trading plan 04/04/2018

Trade plan 04/04/2018

The general picture: Trump made a strong move against China.

The list includes high-tech goods, semiconductors, which is goods for space with only 1300 products. The official reason is a gross violation by China of US intellectual property. Note that all people in history, catching up with others in development that systematically violated this most intellectual property.

In general, the situation with the introduction of U.S. duties against China reminds me the history of the past centuries such as the "Boston tea party" and the war between Britain and the United States followed by the world leader, Britain, that is gradually giving up positions to the new leader.

However, it is important before 11th of May, all interested individuals can submit applications to the US administration for both and against the new tariff and there will be a discussion on May 15.

Thus, the trade war will continue to receive no earlier than May 15, even if there is a respite / pause for the markets.

Today, a report on employment in the US for March from a private agency. ADP at 12:15 London time.

The GBP / USD pair in the currency market:

We expect the pound to rise, but the input from the rollback is interesting. Thus, we buy from the level of 1.4000.

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Bitcoin analysis for 04/04/2018

According to fresh information currently available on the Australian Center for Reports and Transactional Analysis (AUSTRAC), digital exchange exchanges now need to register at offices and approve various reporting and identity control procedures. This move occurs when the Australian authorities try to seal the remaining gaps in the use of cryptocurrencies in the field of tax and identity management. In the face of dissatisfaction over the rapid increase in fraud, the Australian Tax Office has asked taxpayers for write-offs from cryptocurrency last week. In the meantime, in the context of security reform, stock markets must now comply with the four basic rules in order to be able to operate.

The first is the adoption and maintenance of the AML / CTF program to identify, mitigate and manage the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing. Second - identification and verification of the identity of their clients. Third - reporting suspicious AUSTRAC cases and transactions involving physical currency in the amount of $ 10,000 or more. Fourth - keeping certain records for seven years. The six-month grace period will be accompanied by new regulations, during which AUSTRAC will be gentler for operators who do not meet the requirements.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still hovering above the weekly pivot at the level of $7,147 after a breakout above the technical resistance at the level of $7,256. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $8,000, which is just below the golden trend line resistance.

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Trading plan for 04/04/2018

The US has announced a list of goods imported from China, which will be subject to new duties, which guarantees Beijing's response, but the markets are still approaching exchange with calmness. Actually, NZD and AUD are getting the most out of it today. The stock market is more or less a plus, crude oil is slightly lower after the mixed overtones of API.

On Wednesday 4th of April, the event calendar is quite busy with important data release. The most important news will be ADP report form the US, but the market participants should keep an eye on Construction PMI data from the UK and Unemployment Rate form the Eurozone.

EUR/USD analysis for 04/04/2018:

The US decided to impose a 25-percent duty on about 1300 products from China, for which he has allegations of unfair practices related to the use of intellectual property and technology from the USA. The publication was discussed earlier, so it was no more a surprise. China announced a press conference in the morning.

The US job market report in form of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data is the key fundamental event today. The market participants expect a drop from 235k last time to 208k, so any number bigger than this will be a positive surprise for markets and might strengthen the US Dollar across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe before the news is released. The market has dropped slightly below the technical support at the level of 1.2282, tested it from below and now it might be ready to head towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2238. The momentum indicator is still below its fifty level and currently, it points to the downside despite the oversold market conditions, which confirms the bearish bias.

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Pound - Dark Horse G10

In the first quarter, the British pound gained 4% against the US dollar as the political risks were reduced and showed a greater chance to continue the normalization cycle of the Bank of England's monetary policy in May, with a probability higher than 80%. Inflation slowed down from 3% to 2.7% and wages grew to 2.8%, which can be relied on increasing the purchasing power of the population and the acceleration of GDP. As a result, the factor of underestimation can play on the side of the pound.

While the OECD claims that the economy of Foggy Albion will show the slowest growth rates among developed countries, this pleasant surprise was able to help the "bulls" in the GBP / USD to restore an upward trend. For instance, it is not necessary to go far since Bloomberg experts gave the modest estimates of the eurozone's GDP for last year at + 1.7% at the end of 2016. In fact, the indicator was satisfied with the 2.5% rally and became one of the major drivers of strengthening the euro by 14%, which further served as a hint to the future dynamics of the Foggy Albion economy and an evidence from business activity. The statistics on purchasing managers indices adds pressure to the economic calendar and pushes the pound to the most interesting currency for the first week of April.

Dynamics of PMI in services and GDP in Britain

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The PMI forecasts in production were moderately negative (54.7 versus 55.2 in February) and construction sectors (50.8 against 51.8), as well as in services (54 versus 54.5) which may become some kind of predictions to what will happen to the pound for the rest of the year. Strong factual data inspire "bulls" for GBP / USD to take advantage.

The macroeconomic statistics came in positive coupled with the decision on the transition period for Britain until 2019, which should be interpreted as a reduction in political risks and untie the hands of the Bank of England. The Committee on Monetary Policy has plenty of "hawks" who were waiting for signals from Brussels. The futures market expects an increase in repo rates in May and November, while the normalization cycle may continue in February 2019. Adjustments to this trajectory can be made by politics and the economy. In particular, "bears" for sterling say that it is improper to speak about the certainty regarding the Brexit and refer to volatility growth from 7.8% in October-December to 8.3% in January-March. On the other hand, ING claims that the pound's intense response to the transitional report indicates its underestimation.

When predicting the future dynamics of the GBP / USD currency pair, one should not forget about certain factors such as trade wars. The exchange of import duties between the US and China worsens the global appetite for risk, which negatively affects the desire of investors to invest in British financial markets and also a deterrent for sterling.

Technically, the essential condition for the recovery of the "bullish" trend for GBP / USD is a breakthrough resistance at 1.425. In this case, the secondary pattern AB = CD with a target of 200% will be activated. While the pair's quotes are above 1.3705 and the situation is controlled by the buyers.

GBP / USD daily chart

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Breaking forecast 04/04/2018

Breaking forecast 04/04/2018

EURUSD: A breakout from the range can happen at any time.

So, the most important event of the week was held this night: the US Department of Commerce published a preliminary list of goods from China, which, according to Trump's decree, will be charged with increased duties - there 1, 300 goods duty is 25%, mainly high-tech goods.

What is important? There are time frames - until May 11, the public and business can submit criticism of the proposals - and on May 15 there will be a public debate. This actually means China's invitation to argue (unofficially).

The Chinese Embassy in the United States has already firmly stated that China's retaliatory measures completely offset the profits ($50 billion) that Trump wants to receive from the new duties.

In addition: today will report on employment in the US for March from ADP (12:15 PM London time).

EURUSD: We are waiting for the breakthrough of the range and strong movement limits

Buy from 1.2350, stop at1.2305, the profit is 1.2680.

Sell from 1.2238, stop at 1.2283, the profit is 1.2000.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 4, 2018

The Dollar index is breaking above resistance. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud. The price has consolidated sideways for a couple of days and is now breaking resistance levels.

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Red line - resistance

Short-term trend is bullish as the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. The price has broken trend line support. Resistance is at 90.45 where we find the previous high. Support is at 89.90-89.80 where we find the kijun-sen and the Kumo (cloud).

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Weekly candles are promising as the price is above the tankan-sen. Support is at 89.60. Resistance and target are at the weekly kijun-sen at 91.70. As long as weekly candles are above the tankan-sen we should expect the price to move higher.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 4, 2018

The Gold price has pulled back towards $1,330 inside the 4-hour cloud. Support is held for now but there is still a chance we see a move below $1,320 before we start the next leg upwards towards $1,400.

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Red lines -trading range

The Gold price is still inside the long-term trading range. Short-term support is at $1,330. A break below it will most probably push price towards $1,320-$1,300. Resistance is at $1,342, a break above it will most probably push price towards $1,350-55 resistance.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term resistance

The Gold price remains very close but still below the long-term resistance trend line. Price is consolidating near the highs after a sharp rally from the weekly cloud low in December. The high was made in January and since then we are consolidating. I believe that the most probable outcome will be another leg higher as long as we hold above the weekly cloud. Key levels of resistance are at $1,355-60.

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Breaking forecast 04/04/2018

Breaking forecast 04/04/2018

EURUSD: We are waiting for the breakthrough of the range and strong movement.

The focus of markets: the approach of the Trump trade war - China.

On Monday, April 2, China imposed increased duties on 128 goods from the US - worth $3 billion, in response to the introduction of US duties on steel and aluminum from China in early March this year. At the same time, the US is preparing new duties worth $50 billion for Chinese goods - the list should be submitted on Friday, April 6.

China at the same time requires the US to consult - for China the situation is very painful. While the US does not meet halfway. Reason claimed by the US for duties: 1) China's systematic violation of US copyright on technology; 2) The huge trade deficit in the US trade with China - up to 350 billion dollars.

The result of the trade war - a new sharp drop in US indices on Monday, April 2: minus 2.5-3.0% on major indices, important lows are broken.

Currency market:

The EURUSD rate is in the range - and is preparing for an exit.

Fundamentally more likely to go down - a breakthrough of key support 1.2238 and a move to 1.2000.

However, there are explanations for growth: gold and other alternatives to the dollar are growing.

We sell from 1.2238, stop at 1.2283, the profit is 1.2000.

Alternative: buy at breakdown 1.2480, stop at 1.2435, profit at 1.2680.

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