Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 27/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

New Jersey federal prosecutor, Craig Carpenito, is fighting the request of two alleged cryptographic fraudsters to release the county from prison due to a coronavirus pandemic.

According to court documents filed on March 24 with the US Department of Justice, Carpenito stated that the recently introduced bail reform only prefers to release the defendant before the trial, when his presence at the trial can be reasonably guaranteed.

Carpenito noted that COVID-19 sparked a "nationwide conversation" about whether detainees accused of non-violent crimes should be released to reduce the risk of rapid spread of coronavirus in American prisons.

He emphasized, however, that Matthew Goettsche and Jobadiah Weeks - both accused of running the $ 722 million cryptocurrency Ponzi BitClub program - have "strong motivation" to escape.

Goettsche and Weeks petitioned the prison in Essex County, Newark, New Jersey for release on March 20 and 23, respectively.

The Goettsche representation assured that "it is not about if, but when" a major COVID-19 explosion will take place in prison, adding that "it will be almost impossible to stop the spread" when the virus reaches this facility.

The prosecutor cited the findings of Judge Michael Hammer after the previous interrogation on detention, who noted that both men had access to assets that could "finance the risk of escape." Carpentino added that the couple did not provide a "convincing reason" for their release.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been consolidating the recent gains around the trend line support located at the level of $134.12 for some time now and the trend line holds the bulls for now. Any violation of this trend line will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $110.33. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $89.35 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trend line support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $202.93

WR2 - $178.10

WR1 - $150.26

Weekly Pivot - $126.31

WS1 - $100.57

WS2 - $71.34

WS3 - $47.20

Trading Recommendations:

All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Bitcoin hash rate has just dived sharply and is now falling by almost 45% compared to its peak in 2020. According to the hash rate, the network has dropped from 136.2 quintillion hash / s (EH / s) on March 1 to 75.7 EH / s for today.

Hash rate cryptocurrency is a parameter that indicates the number of calculations that a given network can perform every second. A higher hash rate means more competition among miners in the validation of new blocks; it also increases the number of resources needed to conduct a 51% attack, increasing network security.

After an unstable month in which Bitcoin recorded dramatic, but short-lived losses of up to 60% to around $ 3,600 in mid-March, network difficulty yesterday dropped by almost 16%.

The difficulty - or how difficult it is to calculate and check a block in the Blockchain chain - is adapted every 2016 blocks or two weeks to maintain a consistent ~ 10-minute block verification time.

This is closely related to the hash rate of the network. Typically, when the network experiences a low level of participating mining capacity, the difficulty decreases - while during periods of intense network participation it increases, acting as a balancing mechanism.

The last correction of difficulty took place on February 25 this year, when the Bitcoin price was around $ 9,900. Just three days later, it fell to around $ 8,800, and by March 14 to almost $ 4,800 - and on some exchanges up to $ 3,600, as mentioned above.

Technical Market Outlook:

The bulls has pushed the price out of the Triangle formation and almost make the test of the technical resistance located at the level of $6,863, but the BTC/USD pair has reversed from the level of $6,863 after the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made. The market still consolidates the recent gains in a narrow range, however, bulls still make pressure on the market, but in the meantime they must be careful not the fall under the level of $5,500. Any violation of this level will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $4,972. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $3,946 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trend line support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,603

WR2 - $8,246

WR1 - $7,228

Weekly Pivot - $5,818

WS1 - $4,764

WS2 - $3,330

WS3 - $2,301

Trading Recommendations:

All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.

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Market Review. Trading ideas. Answers on questions

Trading ideas:

NZDUSD purchase on a breakdown of 0.59150

USDCAD breakdown sales on 1.41400

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 27/03/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through the monthly trend line resistance located around the level of 1.1988 and made a new high at the level of 1.2308. Please notice the market conditions on the H4 time frame chart are now becoming overbought despite the strong and positive momentum, so the down trend might resume any time soon. Larger time frame trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3144

WR2 - 1.2765

WR1 - 1.2140

Weekly Pivot - 1.1761

WS1 - 1.1090

WS2 - 1.0741

WS3 - 1.0112

Trading Recommendations:

The downtrend will likely be continued towards the parity level. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend until the level of 1.1983 is clearly violated. The long-term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.000 and the long-term target for bulls is a new high above the level of 1.1983.

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USD/JPY to test 110 level before going down. March 27, 2020

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There is a divergence between the CCI (30) and the USD/JPY price on the 4-hour chart. The Candlestick is already moving bellow the EMA (30) and the CCI (30). It passed through 100, 0, and -100 level. We know that this pair has already had a downward momentum. Now USD/JPY seems to retrace to make a Re-Distribution approximately to the 110.00 level before going down again as long it does not break out and close above the 111.75 level.

The overall bias for USD/JPY is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 27/03/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of 1.1090 which is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls. The market moved out of a narrow ascending channel during the move up and is trading just above the upper channel line. Please notice the market bounced from extremely oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart and momentum is now positive and points to the north. The larger time frame downtrend continues, but the odds for a bounce continuation are now high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1581

WR2 - 1.1403

WR1 - 1.0979

Weekly Pivot - 1.0796

WS1 - 1.0386

WS2 - 1.0200

WS3 - 0.9765

Trading Recommendations:

The downtrend is still a valid trend as long as the level of 1.1540 is clearly violated. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The long-term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0339 and the long-term target for bulls is a new high above the level of 1.2555.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on March 27, 2020

The pair continued to move upward on Thursday, testing a pullback level of 50.0% - 1.1067 (red dashed line). Today, the upward movement will continue. There is still high volatility in the market. Strong calendar news is not expected today.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level of 1.1031 (closing of yesterday's candle) the price will try to continue to move up with the target of 1.1168, a retracement level of 61.8% (red dashed line). If this level is reached, the downward movement will continue with the target of 1.0961, a retracement level of 23.6.% (Blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will try to continue to move up.

An unlikely scenario: from a retracement level of 61.8% - 1.1168 (red dashed line) work up, with a target of 1.1293, a retracement level of 76.4% (red dashed line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 27. Bulls are buying out the 1985 lows, but is the pound really strong? Bears

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday's growth in the pound led to quite large levels of resistance, but sellers are not interested yet. But do not forget that the scale of destruction of the economy due to the coronavirus has not yet been determined and it is clearly very early to talk about the end of the pandemic. Therefore, it is not quite correct to expect further growth of GBP/USD in the medium term. Another thing is buying within the day. The formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2230 will be a clear signal to continue the pair's growth in order to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.2366, which will open a direct road to the highs of 1.2366 and 1.2514, where I recommend taking profits. If the pair returns to support 1.2230 in the first half of the day, there is no need to hurry with purchases. It is best to wait for the test of the day's low in 1.2121, or even postpone long positions until supports 1.1985 and 1.1816 are updated.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are still watching all this. The priority task will be to return the pair to the support of 1.2230, which will raise pressure on the pound and lead to a fall to the lows of 1.2121 and 1.1985, where I recommend taking profits, since it is in this area that the lower boundary of the current ascending channel passes. In the scenario of further growth in the trend, we can talk about attempts to return to the bear market if a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of 1.2366, and it is best to open short positions immediately on a rebound from the high of 1.2514.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth of the pound.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.2330 will lead to further growth of the pound. In case of a decrease in the pair, you can buy for a rebound from the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.1985 area.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 27. Euro buyers are counting on a quick economic recovery, not even knowing

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The sharp growth of the euro, which continued yesterday, proves only one thing: buyers are counting on a fairly rapid recovery of the US and eurozone economies, not even knowing about the real scale of its fall due to the coronavirus. This could end very badly. Yesterday's data on the state of the US labor market became a warning signal, but traders ignored them. Today, the bulls will try to stay above the support of 1.1054, where the formation of a false breakout in the first half of the day will signal the continuation of growth to the next highs in the area of 1.1145 and 1.1231, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears manage to win back the support of 1.1054, then it is best to postpone long positions in EUR/USD to the test of the low of 1.0957, or buy immediately on the rebound from the support of 1.0880.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Given that important fundamental data are not published in the first half of the day, the bears' task is to quickly regain the level of 1.1054, a decline under which will lead to the closure of a number of long positions by speculative players and the pair's fall to the support area of 1.0957. However, the long-term goal of sellers will be a low of 1.0880, where I recommend taking profits. A test of this range will also lead to a break in the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which will indicate a break in the upward trend in the pair. In case EUR/USD further grows in the first half of the day, it is best to return to long positions only after updating the high of 1.1145, or sell the pair immediately on the rebound from the next major resistance of 1.1231.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the continuation of the upward correction.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1095 will lead to a new wave of growth in the euro. In the event of a decline, the pair will be supported by the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.0957 area.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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The ruble is stabilizing, but this is not the end. Coronavirus: soft quarantine in Moscow is a big mistake of Sobyanin

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The fall of the ruble against the dollar and the euro stopped.

Dollar 78.00. Euro 85.50.

But a new wave of decline is likely within two weeks, and here's why:

Soft quarantine in Moscow is a big mistake.

The reason - two days in a row growth + 30% of new infected - creates the risk of explosive growth in the number of patients in just a week to several thousand.

The entire experience of the main affected countries: China, Italy, Spain - shows: a) quarantine - the main tool against the rapid growth of diseases; b) with a total number of patients above 20-30 thousand - creates an unacceptably high load on medicine.

Conclusion: Yesterday in Moscow it was necessary to introduce strict quarantine for at least 2 weeks, namely: the closure of the metro and public transport and all enterprises except those necessary for life support. Losses must be borne by the budgets of Moscow and Russia. So far, it has not been possible to bring down the growth of new infections below + 10% per day - no measures will be too harsh. (Suburban traffic should also be closed).

I would like to make a mistake, but the measures I have cited will be introduced, but in 7-10 days - in a much more difficult situation.

People take care of yourself.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 03/27/2020 and trading recommendation

It seems that everything is correct, and the single European currency grew quite reasonably. But why so modest? After all, one look at the US data is enough to earn a heart attack, and drink sedatives for the rest of your days. Such data should have sent the euro soaring at the speed of light. Such a situation in the labor market of the United States has not been seen since the Great Depression.

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Honestly, this has never been seen before. It's not even a question of how fast the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits has increased, but how no one could even imagine such a value. Yes, the number of these initial applications for unemployment benefits increased from 282 thousand to 3 283 thousand. This is something unimaginable. For the first time in history, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits exceeded the number of repeated applications. After all, it was predicted that the number of applications would increase to 1,090 thousand. The number of repeated applications increased from 1,702 thousand to 1,803 thousand. So do not console yourself with the illusions that this is a random and insignificant leap, and in the near future, all of these people will find a new job. No, the labor market simply cannot cope with such an influx of the army of the unemployed. Even assuming that the situation on the labor market will no longer worsen, it will take a very, very long time to rake this blockage. Yes, and what kind of work they can find if such a shaft of applications is possible only if people lost their jobs due to the elementary bankruptcy of employers. The coronavirus epidemic, which hits the United States the most, with the highest numbers of people infected, has led to incredible losses in the service sector. Many entrepreneurs cannot stand this, and they are trivial to go broke. Well, their employees replenish the army of the unemployed. And given that the situation with coronavirus is getting worse day by day in the United States, things will only get worse.

Number of Initial Jobless Claims (United States):

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So it is really not clear why the single European currency has grown so modestly. It should grow and grow in time. Apparently, it is under pressure from the general European situation with coronavirus, and the shock of market participants due to the increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. They simply do not believe their own eyes, and hope that there is some mistake. And in general, where do they run, because the bulk of capital is controlled by US investors, and the world is not calm right now. So the money is stuck in the United States itself.

From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a recovery process, relative to the downward inertia course, where at the beginning of the week more than 400 points were worked out. In fact the quote returned to the previous stagnation area of 1,1000//1,1080//1,1180, where oscillation activity remains high. Regarding volatility, we have an average of 167 points calculated from the beginning of the trading week, and this credit is attributed to the external background, which does not stop surprising traders for a single day.

In terms of the general review of the trading schedule, we see a long-term downward trend, where during the next attempt to update the record lows, a periodic support was found in the form of the 1.0650 level, on the basis of which a correction began to form.

We can assume a temporary fluctuation between the levels of 1.1000/1.1080, where the main move will come after consolidating the price outside the established boundaries.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- We will consider long positions after consolidating the price above 1.1090, with the prospect of a move to 1.1180.

- We consider short positions in two stages: the first, descent lower than 1.1020, with a move to 1.1000; the second option is the main one, where you should identify a price fix lower than 1.0990, with the prospect of a move of 1.0900.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that, based on local upward movement, the indicators of technical tools on the minute and hour periods occupied the upside. The daily periods where the indicators are plotted continue to indicate a downward interest, due to the main trend.

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Control zones for USDJPY on 03/27/2020

Today's fall target is the weekly CZ of 107.86-107.49. Reaching this zone and responding to it will determine the next priority. If the test leads to the formation of the "absorption" pattern, then next week the priority of trading will be growth. This model remains a priority for now, as the last weakening of the yen was quite strong.

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The downward direction of a trade can go into the impulse phase of the medium-term order. Today, there are large purchases of the yen in the Asian session, which indicates interest in its strengthening.

An alternative model for strengthening the yen will develop if the current week's trading closes below the weekly CZ of 107.86-107.49. This will open the way for further declines. The target of the fall will be the level of 104.00.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for USDCHF on 03/27/2020

Work in the downward direction has become the main one this week. The target weekly CZ 0.9560-0.9527 is located at a distance of 30 points, which makes it the main one for determining further priority. If the test of this zone leads to an increase in demand and the formation of a pattern of "absorption", then next week, purchases will come to the fore.

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Yesterday's downward movement indicates interest in buying the Swiss franc from major players, so some of the sales should be left and transferred to breakeven.

An alternative model for continuing the decline will develop if the current week's trading closes below the weekly short-term limit. This will open the way for a fall to the next target level of 0.9313. The plan for next week will depend entirely on today's test of the specified zone.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD. March 27. Markets are shocked by the collapse of the US labor market. Epidemiologists agree that an

4-hour timeframe

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Average volatility over the past five days: 171p (high).

The last trading day should be extremely interesting for the foreign exchange market. Yesterday, traders were shocked by data on the unemployment rate - for the period from March 13 to March 20, Americans filed 3.3 million applications for benefits. Amid such information, the US currency began to lose ground against the euro and the pound at a faster pace. From our point of view, it is completely logical. We have already said in previous articles that there were no good reasons for the strong dollar growth in the last month. In addition to the holy faith of most market participants in the firmness of the US currency. Thus, now we are witnessing a logical process of returning "to its place."

Several US macroeconomic data will be published on Friday, March 27. We are talking about changes in personal income and spending of the US population in February. However, since we are talking about the second month of the year, and not about the third crisis, no special changes in these indicators are expected, and no particularly strong reaction of market participants to these reports is expected. At the very end of the day, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for March will be published. This indicator can seriously fall. However, the key event of the day, of course, will be the vote of the House of Representatives of the US Congress on the bill providing for the allocation of $2 trillion to counter the negative impact of the coronavirus on the economy. Most likely, there will be no problems with the adoption of this bill. Thus, tomorrow it can be handed over to President Donald Trump for signature.

However, the most interesting question now sounds like this: what awaits the US dollar in the next week or two? According to all the canons of technical analysis, the pair corrected after a strong fall. Now either it will continue to grow, that is, form a new upward trend, or resume a downward trend. We believe that much for the US dollar will now depend on Trump, who wants to end the quarantine period as soon as possible and return Americans to their jobs. Trump calls on Americans to celebrate Easter (April 12), get together on that day in churches, and by the 13th to go to work. Leading epidemiologists believe that such a move could be a fatal mistake for America. The pandemic continues to spread, and health experts consider it appropriate for at least another month to keep social distance and adhere to quarantine. And only when it is possible to stop the spread of the virus, it will be possible to think about the partial removal of quarantine measures. According to an epidemiological study, if the Americans are now allowed to "quit quarantine," then the number of infected can reach 126 million in a couple of months, of which about 1.3 million will die. It is difficult to even imagine such a scenario of events on paper. It is unlikely that even in a country like America there are about 10-20 million hospital beds. But people are not only affected by the coronavirus. Experts believe that adhering to quarantine measures, firstly, allows you to gain time that will be spent on developing a vaccine, and secondly, it will make it possible to stretch the infection process in time and facilitate the work of the health system. All, as one, epidemiologists agree that an economic pause is necessary to prevent the infection of most of the US population.

And the last one! Many experts often compare the COVID-2019 virus to the flu virus. They say that the coronavirus is not much more dangerous than the usual seasonal disease for the planet Earth. Recent studies have shown that the coronavirus surpasses the flu in viral potential (the number of people that can infect one patient), and in the index of hospitalization (the percentage of the number of infected to the number of hospitalizations), and in the mortality rate (the percentage of people who die from the virus). According to scientists, one patient can transmit the COVID virus to 99,000 people in two months, of which up to 20,000 will need to be hospitalized. Thus, the COVID-2019 virus is much more dangerous than seasonal flu.

4-hour timeframe

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Average volatility over the past 5 days: 367p (high).

The GBP/USD currency pair continues an upward movement on March 27 and worked out the top line of the Ichimoku Senkou Span B cloud. The first resistance level for the 4-hour timeframe also lies near this line - 1.2242. If these two barriers are successfully overcome by the bulls, then the pound will be able to continue his victorious track upwards. We believe that after two weeks of failure, the British currency may well return to its roots. In the UK, no important and significant publications are planned for today. On the other hand, traders still pay a little attention to the macroeconomic background. Thus, we continue to wait for information on the state of the British and American economies for March, all other data are not worthy of attention. According to the latest data, about 12,000 people have already become infected with the coronavirus in the UK. Only 142 have fully recovered.

Recommendations for EUR/USD:

For short positions:

The euro/dollar continues to move up. Thus, it is recommended to sell the euro after consolidating quotes below the critical line with the goal of the support level of 1.0476, which is located far enough and requires the resumption of the formation of a downward trend.

For long positions:

Long positions look more preferable, as the pair crossed the Kijun-sen line. At the same time, the buy signal from Ichimoku remains weak until the Ichimoku cloud is overcome. In case of overcoming, trading on an increase is recommended with targets 1.1200 and 1.1455.

Recommendations for GBP/USD:

For short positions:

The pound/dollar continues to move up after a rebound from the Kijun-sen line. Therefore, it is recommended to sell the pound with the goal of the support level of 1.1229 only after the bears return to the area below Kijun-sen.

For long positions:

It is recommended to buy the GBP/USD pair if the Senkou Span B line and the level of 1.2242 with the targets of 1.2539 and 1.2840 are overcome. Also, as in the case of the euro currency, it is advised that you keep in mind the increased risks when opening any positions.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 27. Boris Johnson has come under a barrage of criticism for "missing the moment" with

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 130.6571

The GBP/USD currency pair worked out on March 26, easily overcame the moving average line and continues its upward movement, which is quite strong. The last day ended again with total volatility of more than 400 points. Thus, we see that the pound is recovering quickly, after an absolutely illogical fall. Now the fall of the US currency is also beginning to contribute to statistics from overseas for March. Thus, as in the case of the euro currency, the pound may soon return to the levels from which everything started, that is, in the area of 1.2900-1.3200. All topics, like Brexit and trade negotiations with the European Union, do not matter much now. What matters is the macroeconomic data from the UK and the States for March, which are slowly beginning to be available to traders.

While all the attention of traders was focused on the news and reports about the spread of "coronavirus" around the world, as well as data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, we can say that the Bank of England quietly held another scheduled meeting. Probably, because no changes in monetary policy were expected from the Regulator, this is certainly an important event and did not receive any attention. And it should be said quite fairly. The Bank of England, like the Fed and the ECB, has already done everything possible. Rates are lowered to 0.1%, and the quantitative easing program is expanded to 645 billion pounds. Of course, the regulator can follow the example of the Federal Reserve and indefinitely increase the volume of securities repurchase from the market and inflate its balance sheet. However, more conservative British are unlikely to follow this path. In principle, the "caution" of the Bank of England is clearly visible in its inaction during Brexit, when the British economy began to slow down, but the Central Bank was in no hurry to lower rates. In the final communique of the Bank of England, it is reported that the scale of the economic shock from the epidemic is impossible to determine now. The risk of long-term damage is present, and it is likely to be expressed by large-scale unemployment and business decline. The Bank of England assumes that global GDP will decline in the first half of the year. In addition, the Regulator assumes a serious slowdown in inflation, as well as a fall in the value of the pound. However, there is also a note of optimism in the message – "the economic shock from the virus will be temporary."

While the British regulator is resisting the epidemic with its own monetary methods, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, according to many experts and the media, "missed the moment" and now it will be much more difficult to contain the spread of the "coronavirus" pandemic in the Foggy Albion. Boris Johnson is accused of overly populist behavior, that he introduced a "hard" quarantine in the country too late. As a result, official data show only 10,000 infected, but health officials believe that the real numbers are much higher. In their opinion, a huge amount of data is not taken into account, a huge number of people simply do not know that they are infected, a huge number of Britons simply have not yet passed the infection test. Many British media outlets have refused to support the government of Boris Johnson and note that some Britons do not adhere to the rules of quarantine and freely walk around London – the center of infection of the British Empire. At the same time, Johnson only "encourages" citizens to stay at home and not go out without good reasons. According to many experts, it is high time to introduce a "hard" quarantine with penalties for its violation. Johnson also came under criticism for his initial desire to not resist the virus too much and allow the British population to get over it in order to get immunity. Of course, the Prime Minister did not say anything publicly, but we have already drawn the attention of traders to some of his "optimistic" statements. For example, the Prime Minister's words that many British families will lose their relatives due to the epidemic. Scientists compare the UK with Switzerland, which has an 8 times smaller population, but about the same number of infected people, which suggests that the real figures are underestimated by British authorized persons. As in many other countries seriously affected by the pandemic, Britain's medical sector is already overloaded. All private clinics are integrated into the general health care system. Automobile plants are directed to the production of ventilators, and alcohol plants - to the production of disinfectants. According to official data in the UK, about 500 people died from the "coronavirus"...

As for the macroeconomic statistics, which still has almost no effect on the movement of the GBP/USD currency pair, on Wednesday, March 26, the UK published the retail sales indicator for February. Even taking into account the fact that there was no epidemic in Britain in February, the indicator still turned out to be significantly worse than experts' forecasts. In monthly terms, it decreased by 0.3%, and in annual terms it showed zero growth. Excluding fuel sales, the increase was only 0.5% y/y (with a forecast of +1.1%), with a monthly loss of 0.5%.

"Technique" shows a fairly strong upward movement, which will now be almost as difficult to stop as the dollar's growth a week earlier. At least no important fundamental information that can make a revolution in the market is expected in the near future. We also believe that technical factors are quite important now, as market participants react poorly to the "foundation", and technical indicators are quite confident and without false indications signal the continued growth of the pound/dollar pair.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair has decreased slightly over the past 5 days, but yesterday it began to grow again and currently stands at 367 points. The activity of traders on the pound/dollar pair remains extremely high, which should be taken into account when trading this pair. On Friday, March 27, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.1805 and 1.2539. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1719

S2 - 1.1475

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1963

R2 - 1.2207

R3 - 1.2451

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move up on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, purchases of the pound with the targets of 1.2451 and 1.2539 are relevant now. The movement is strong, so you can exit the longs by turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to sell the British currency with the target of 1.1475 if the bears manage to overcome the moving average. We remind you that in the current conditions, opening any positions is associated with increased risks.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 27. Fed Chairman Powell believes that the US economy will begin to recover in the second

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 206.8643

For the EUR/USD currency pair, the fourth trading day of the week ended in an upward movement. The pair attempted to overcome the moving average line and managed to do so almost immediately. Thus, at the moment, the upward movement continues unimpeded, almost the same as a week ago, when there was a strong fall in the euro. The Heiken Ashi indicator continues to color the bars purple, which indicates that there is no correction. We are now witnessing a mirror movement to the one that was observed from March 9 to 19. Thus, once again, you can make sure that the US dollar did not rise in price quite fairly, and the movement of the euro/dollar pair does not differ at this time in logic and validity.

While the macroeconomic indicators of the United States have begun to deteriorate seriously, caused by the "coronavirus" epidemic and the quarantine, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell "only admits" the probability that the economy is already in recession. We have already said that the concept of "recession" is rather vague. Formally, the decline in growth by 0.1% compared to the previous report is already a recession. However, experts and economists around the world prefer to call a recession a more significant and longer decline in economic growth. The fact that the recession is now in the States can be said even without looking at macroeconomic statistics. The rate of GDP growth in the last year and a half has only decreased from a maximum of 3% to the current 2.1%. Thus, the economy has been slowing for at least a year. Not least because of Donald Trump's trade wars. Now the "coronavirus" epidemic around the world is clearly slowing down the world economy even more. Recent reports from China, the center of the epidemic, have shown that it is quite possible to expect a decline in indicators such as retail sales and industrial production by 20-30 percent. However, China has already managed to localize the epidemic and indicators have begun to recover. In the States, the epidemic has not even entered its peak phase yet, according to medical experts. And the number of cases already exceeds 70,000 (slightly more only in Italy and China). Thus, at the peak of the epidemic in America, there may be several hundred thousand infected citizens. Thus, in the United States, we are waiting for the most serious cuts in all macroeconomic indicators. And the main thing is that everything does not turn out to be not just a recession for America, but a depression.

Jerome Powell's speech yesterday was extremely vague and left a lot of questions. Powell said that "there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy right now." In what sense? Everything that is happening now is normal? The Fed chief said: "The pandemic is putting pressure on the US economy, but the current situation may lead to a recovery in the future." This is obvious since any downturn is followed by a period of recovery. It is good that the Fed Chairman clearly understands that the future of the economy now depends not on the actions of the Fed or the White House, but on doctors and the timing of localization of the epidemic. "We are not experts in the field of pandemics. We will listen to the experts. Dr. Anthony Fauci (Director Of the Institute of Allergy and infectious diseases, which is part of the White House working group on fighting the COVID-19 virus) said that the timing will determine the virus, and it seems right to me," Mr. Powell said. "First you need to curb the spread of the virus, and then think about restoring economic activity," said the Director of the Federal Reserve. Powell also believes that economic activity will recover in the second half of the year and begin to show growth. The Fed's goals, according to its head, are to give a certain period for suspending the economy to take control of the virus.

Unfortunately, Donald Trump and Jerome Powell have different opinions about the epidemic and the economy. However, we are already used to the fact that the opinions of the country's President and the head of the Fed rarely coincide. Trump wants to restart the economy by mid-April and thus cancel all quarantine measures in the country. According to Trump, "the cure for the disease should not cost more than the disease itself." Perhaps this phrase will be remembered for a long time by the American President, for whom the economy and world leadership are much more important than the lives and health of their own population. "We are going to open soon... I would like the country to be open and begin to recover by Easter," the US leader said. According to Trump, if the economy does not resume working, the country will suffer from a recession or depression, which is even worse. "You will get thousands of suicides, there will be instability," Trump said. However, fortunately, most of the congressmen do not support Trump. For example, a member of the Republican Party, Liz Cheney, believes that the economy will not function normally if hospitals across the country are overloaded and thousands of Americans of all ages are seriously ill, and some will die. Cheney believes that the American people will not forgive the government for not taking appropriate measures to overcome the epidemic. Many periodicals and media outlets also criticized Trump. For example, one publication suggests that the US President and his family move to New York, which accounts for more than 30% of all illnesses. Donald Trump is also accused of pursuing personal interests. All its hotels and golf clubs are now closed, respectively, do not bring profit. The main thing is that the Democrats do not start another impeachment process...

From a technical point of view, the upward movement continues. We believe that the US currency is in some way now returning excess confidence. Traders believed that the US dollar is the most stable and secure currency, but recent news and reports show that the contraction of the economy can be huge. Stock markets started to recover, but as we have already found out, their collapse was not the reason for the dollar's growth. Thus, we will not be surprised if the euro currency now returns to the Murray level of "6/8"-1.1475, where the fall in quotes began.

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The average volatility of the E=euro/dollar currency pair remains at record high values but still begins to gradually decrease. At the moment, the average value for the last 5 days is 171 points and the last five days have shown volatility below 200 points per day. On Friday, March 27, we expect a further decrease in volatility and movement within the channel, limited to the levels of 1.0858 and 1.1200.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0986

S2 - 1.0864

S3 - 1.0742

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1108

R2 - 1.1230

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues its upward movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to buy the euro with the targets of 1.1108 and 1.1200 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to sell the EUR/USD pair no earlier than fixing the price above a moving with the first goal of the Murray level of "0/8"-1.0742. When opening any positions, we recommend increased caution, since the market is still very restless.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.23787

Reason for Entry: 50% Fibonacci retracement, breakout level

Take Profit : 1.14386

Reason for Take Profit: 63.857 horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 1.27204

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on March 27,2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has been infected by increased volatility in European currencies. The aussie's range reached 216 points yesterday. The highs of the last three days were near the Fibonacci level of 50.0%. The level has been reached, and there is a hint of a reversal divergence on the lower-scale chart.

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The price may still grow to the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel of the daily chart 0.6206 and at the same time, the divergence may still persist, in general, we are waiting for the price to reverse again to decrease.

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The condition for such a decrease will be the price drift under the MACD line on a four-hour chart below 0.5875. The Australian S&P/ASX200 index fell 2.54% in the Asian session, while the Chinese Shanghai Composite added 0.67% and the Japanese Nikkei225 is up 1.27%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on March 27, 2020

USD/JPY

The accumulated potential to pull down the USD/JPY pair yesterday was fully realized - the decline reached 175 points with a test of the MACD line on a daily scale (109.24). Today this support has been overcome, the price is losing over 100 points in the Asian session, the closest target along the price channel is already close (107.86). Just below the first target is the second at 107.02. Overcoming the second goal opens the way to the third at 102.70.

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The price has consolidated under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the price continues to decline at a steady rate. Chinese industry earnings data for February showed a 38.3% decline.

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Japanese stock index Nikkei225 is growing by 1.40% today, but the USD/JPY pair is falling, which indicates the strength of the trend. We look forward to a further fall in prices.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDJPY testing descending trendline resistance! Further drop expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 66.634

Reason for Entry: Descending trendline resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 64.170

Reason for Take Profit: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 67.744

Reason for Stop loss: 88% Fibonacci retracement, Graphical swing high

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY (H4) from March 27, 2020

Minuette operational scale (H4)

Did the reversal take place or is there a correction available? Here's the development options for the movement of the main currency instruments #USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY on March 27, 2020 in comprehensive form.

____________________

US dollar Index

The movement of the#USDX dollar index from March 27, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of 1/2 Median Line channel (99.35 - 100.15 101.05) of the Minuette operational scale forks. Look at the chart for the details of this movement.

The breakdown of the lower boundary (support level of 99.35) of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will confirm the development of the movement of the dollar index in the equilibrium zone (99.35 - 98.20 - 97.15) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary (resistance level of 101.05) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, there may be a resumption of the upward movement of #USDX to the targets:

- initial SSL line (102.65) of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- maximum 102.99;

- control line UTL Minuette (103.85);

- warning line UWL38.2 Minuette (104.35).

The details of marking the movement of the dollar index from March 27, 2020 are presented on the animated chart.

analytics5e7cddcaea26c.jpg

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Euro vs US dollar

Starting March 27, 2020, the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (1.0915 - 1.1000 - 1.1105) of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD. We look at the markup for the development of this channel in the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary (resistance level of 1.1105) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, the development of the EUR / USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (1.1105 - 1.1230 - 1.1355) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Alternatively, the breakdown of the support level of 1.0915 - the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks is an option for the development of the downward movement of the single European currency to the initial SSL line (1.0715) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating the minimum of 1.0636.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options is shown on the animated chart.

analytics5e7cde47c904e.jpg

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

From March 27, 2020, Her Majesty's currency GBP / USD will continue to develop its movement depending on the development and direction of breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1755 - 1.1932 - 1.2085) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the development of the indicated levels are presented on the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2085 - the upper boundary of ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks. The further development of the GBP / USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (1.2085 - 1.2310 - 1.2520) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the other hand, if Her Majesty's Currency returns below the support level of 1.1755 - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, will lead to the option of developing a downward movement to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.1555 - 1.1420 - 1.1290) with the prospect of reaching the SSL Minuette start line (1.1180).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

analytics5e7cde68ee5a3.jpg

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 109.75 - lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 109.10 - upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

will determine the further development of the movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY from March 27, 2020.

The breakdown of the upper boundary (support level of 109.10) of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will lead to an option of continuing the development of the movement of USD / JPY within the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks (109.10 - 108.30 - 107.50) and Minuette (108.30 - 107.00 - 105.70).

Meanwhile, in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 109.75, the movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" will return to the 1/2 Media Line channel (109.75 - 110.35 - 110.85) of the Minuette operational scale forks, and if breakdown of the upper boundary (110.85) of the channel occurs, then the development of the upward movement of this instrument can be directed towards the goals:

- initial SSL line (111.69) of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- maximum 112.20;

- SSL control line (112.60) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

analytics5e7cde9171a41.jpg

____________________

The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD and GBP/USD. March 26. Results of the day. Euro and pound revival thanks to 3.3 million new weekly US unemployment

4-hour timeframe

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Average volatility over the past five days: 199p (high).

The EUR/USD pair ends the fourth trading day of the week by continuing growth, which was initially classified as a corrective movement, but now represents a full-fledged upward trend. We cannot say with absolute certainty that the downward course for the euro/dollar pair has ended. However, now everything looks exactly as if traders are sated with purchases of the US currency. After all, it is true that the US currency has been continuously rising in price for almost two weeks. There was only one reason – the coronavirus and the panic associated with it. But why did the dollar become more expensive? There can only be one answer. Traders firmly believed that the US economy would survive the crisis and the epidemic with complete calm, or at least with less losses than other countries. However, in practice, it turns out that the United States is not far behind the eurozone and even threatens to overtake it in the number of diseases and deaths from infection. The coronavirus first began to spread in the European Union, so it is not surprising that the largest number of infected people can be found there. Nevertheless, the United States adds 10-20% to their number of infected people every day. Moreover, the central banks of both the EU and the US simultaneously lowered rates to a minimum and resumed quantitative stimulus programs. However, the EU did not lower the rates. They have long been at ultra-low values. That is, the euro/dollar exchange rate at the time before the outbreak of the epidemic just took into account the fact that rates in the EU are much lower than in the United States. What happens next? The Federal Reserve lowers rates to zero, announces a huge program of quantitative stimulus, and yesterday passes a law that involves injecting $2 trillion additional into the economy. Yes, this is not a QE program, which involves the Fed buying securities from the open market. But these are the same incentives: helicopter money for the US population, cheap loans for small and medium-sized businesses, subsidies, grants, and assistance to the companies most affected by the epidemic and the shutdown. Thus, it was the US currency that should have weakened against other currencies, not the other way around. Well, if you also remember the collapses in the US stock market, record slumps, the problems of the US oil and gas sector, which will suffer due to low oil prices, it is not clear why the dollar was getting more expensive? And to all this, we now add the firm strengthening of the US currency in the period from March 9 to 19, and we get that the greenback is most overbought in the current conditions. That the demand for it is unreasonably high in the current reality and with the current balance of forces between the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed. However, all these arguments are opposed by only one factor – the majority of market participants' faith in the dollar. And if traders decide to resume buying the US currency, despite the macroeconomic and fundamental background, the dollar will again become more expensive. However, while traders have not yet returned to unwarranted investments in the dollar, we would say that the euro has a good chance of fully recouping all losses over the past month.

The United States has just published a report on applications for unemployment benefits for the week of March 13-20. The indicator of the previous week already warned that everything is bad, and you need to prepare for the worst. Experts expected from 1 to 1.1 million new applications for benefits. However, the reality was slightly worse. The actual number of applications for one week was 3.283 million, while the normal value of the indicator is 220-230 thousand. And this is only for the first week of the epidemic raging. What will happen next? I immediately remember the words of the representative of the Monetary Committee of the Fed, James Bullard, who predicted unemployment at 30%. It seems that he is not far from the truth. As for the US currency, it continued to fall today, March 26. We cannot say that this was the market's reaction to the published report. However, most likely, this report also affected the decline in demand for the dollar. Volatility remains quite high today, but it is not as high as in the first weeks of the new crisis. About 110 points have been passed so far.

4-hour timeframe

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Average volatility over the past five days: 351p (high).

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on March 26, after the price rebounded from the Kijun-sen critical line. Thus, the movement continues towards the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. The reasons for the pound's growth are now approximately the same as for the euro. Given the new reality, the new rates of the Fed and the Bank of England, new quantitative stimulus programs and new cash injections in each economy, the position of the British currency no longer looks hopeless. Yes, the aggravating factor in the form of Brexit in the form of negotiations on trade relations after Brexit between Brussels and London continues to hang over Britain and the pound. However, now this topic is no longer in the first place for traders and investors. Thus, if the US dollar will not be bought up by market participants simply because it is the dollar, then the pound will continue to recover with a high degree of probability. No matter how weak the pound is, we believe that losing 1,500 in two weeks is too much. Today, the pound/dollar pair has already passed about 260 points, but this value is likely to exceed 300 points by the end of Thursday. Thus, the average volatility will remain stably high.

Recommendations for EUR/USD:

For short positions:

The euro/dollar continues its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is advised that you should only sell the euro if the price is consolidated below the critical line with the first goal, the level of volatility is 1.0677. The second target is the support level of 1.0476.

For long positions:

Formally, you can buy the EUR/USD pair now, since the price has crossed the Kijun-sen line, with the first goal the resistance level is 1.1075. The chances of a recovery in the euro are growing, but the signal from the Ichimoku Golden Cross is still weak. Therefore, buy-positions only in small lots.

Recommendations for GBP/USD:

For short positions:

The pound/dollar pair resumed its upward movement, bouncing off the Kijun-sen line. Thus, it is recommended to sell the British pound with the goal of a volatility level of 1.1510 only after price taking below the Kijun-sen line. The second goal is the support level of 1.1229.

For long positions:

You can buy the GBP/USD pair now, since a rebound from the Kijun-sen line has been made, with the first goal, the level of volatility is 1.2212, but in small lots. Similar with the euro's case, it is advised that you keep in mind the increased risks when opening any positions.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar took a weekend off in connection with the collapse of the US labor market

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Major US indices rose at the beginning of the day, despite the shock experienced by the local labor market, CNN commented on the situation. Over the past week, more than 3.2 million US residents filed their first applications for unemployment benefits in connection with the coronavirus pandemic. Such terrifying figures were not recorded in the history of observation of these data (1967).

White House Chief Economist Larry Kudlow tried to smooth out a possible negative surprise. The official warned that the report would indicate a strong surge in the number of unemployment claims. Who would have thought that, instead of a catastrophic forecast of 1 million, bidders would see twice as much value on the chart.

The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States

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The current three million with a tail is more than four times higher than the previous record high of 1982, when 695,000 applications were registered. The US Labor Office also noted that we are talking about an increase of more than 1000% compared with the value for the previous period.

It is worth noting that last week one of the country's largest banks, Bank of America, predicted such a development of events.

According to the Washington Post, some Americans had to wait hours in line for their applications to be accepted. Most local strategists noted the onset of a recession in the United States; it is expected that by April the number of unemployed will exceed 40 million. The newspaper also admitted that the actual number of unemployed may be much higher. Self-employed, students, freelancers, who have recently changed jobs or moved to another region of the country, are not allowed to apply for benefits.

Meanwhile, restaurants, shops, hotels, gyms and many other public places are closing down in the United States as part of the fight against the spread of coronavirus.

According to Johns Hopkins University, more than 69.1 thousand cases of infection were recorded in America, more than a thousand people died from pneumonia caused by coronavirus. The university calculates the number of cases using reports from the US, WHO and other official sources.

What will the dollar say?

The dollar was under pressure throughout the entire trading on Thursday until the publication of statistics from the US labor market. The dollar index was gradually preparing to meet the 100 mark, below which it had gone immediately after the release of unprecedented data. It lost more than 1% in the US session.

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The dollar falls for the fifth consecutive day, after it strengthened for seven out of eight previous days, reaching peak levels over several years. Perhaps it is time to return to the market.

Given the aggressive collapse of the longest bull market in history, a further drop in the stock market is not ruled out until the trend reverses. As for the dollar, it is highly likely to regain the status of a safe haven asset, and this will not be the first and not the only case.

There is one but, suggesting pressure on the reserve world currency. Some analysts predict the combined efforts of global central banks to weaken the dollar. This has not happened since the Plaza Agreement in 1985. The greenback lost 48% of the value in the period from February 1985 to November 1987.

What does Powell think?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made a speech on Thursday. He said in an interview with NBC that the coronavirus pandemic is putting unprecedented pressure on the US economy.

"We may well be in a recession. But I would point out the difference between this and a normal recession. There is nothing fundamentally bad in our economy. Just the opposite. We are starting from a very strong position, " Powell said. The Fed chairman also called the current situation "unique."

"I think people should understand that this is not a typical recession. People are asked to close their business, stay at home and not engage in certain economic activities. At some point, we will take control of the virus, and confidence will return," Powell said.

He also had to explain US President Donald Trump's desire to remove the restrictions on Easter due to coronavirus.

"We are not pandemic experts and cannot make this decision. We tend to listen to the opinion of experts," the head of the regulator summed up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com