Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 02, 2018

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All our upward targets which we predicted in the previous analysis have been hit. USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. The technical outlook of the pair is bullish as the prices have recorded a series of higher tops and higher bottoms since April 27. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-peirod moving averages. The relative strength index advocates for further upside. Hence, above 109.50, look for an advance with targets at 110.00 and 110.30 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 109.50, take profit at 110.00.

Resistance levels: 110.00, 110.30, and 110.75

Support levels: 109.25, 109.00, and 108.40.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 02, 2018

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All our upward targets which we predicted previous analysis have been hit. The pair is still in a bullish trend, backed by its intraday rising trend line. The process of higher highs and lows remains intact on the prices, which confirms a positive outlook. In addition, the intraday relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as 0.9920 is not broken, likely advance to 1.0000 and 1.0040 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9920, take profit at 1.000.

Resistance levels: 1.000, 1.0040, and 1.0080

Support levels: 0.9885, 0.9865, and 0.9830.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 02, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a technical rebound, and is now challenging its key resistance at 150.35. The upside breakout of this level is more likely to occur, as the 20-period moving average has reversed up, and has also crossed above the 50-period one (a positive signal). Besides, the relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as 149.10 is not broken, look for further upsides towards 150.38.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.35, 150.85, and 151.45

Support levels: 149.50, 149.00, and 148.30

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 02, 2018

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All our downside targets which we predicted in the previous analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is still under pressure. The pair accelerated on the downside following the recent bearish breakout of its key horizontal level at 0.7030, which now acts as a resistance role. The falling 50-period moving average should also push the prices lower towards 0.6960. In addition, the relative strength index is bearish, calling for a further decline. To sum up, as long as 0.7035 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.6990 and 0.6960 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7050, 0.7075, and 0.7120

Support levels: 0.6990, 0.6960, and 0.6920.

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Global macro overview for 02/05/2018

The British pound leads in the way for a group of currencies that are trying to correct the dollar's recovery from previous days. Partially responded to this is higher than expected reading of the PMI index for the construction sector (52,5 vs. 50.5 expected, 47.0 prior), but equally important may be the latest news from the United Kingdom regarding work on the Brexit contract. The press in the UK informs that Prime Minister Theresa May is inclined to support the hybrid customs agreement with the EU, despite the fact that such a solution has many opponents in the Conservative Party.

British Prime Minister Theresa May wants to push the so-called hybrid "Customs Partnership" with the EU. In principle, Great Britain will pre-map EU customs rules and collect customs duties and charges on behalf of Brussels. If London were to change tariffs in the future, importers will be able to ask the customs office for a refund if the final destination was Great Britain. Such a solution would avoid difficult solutions at the border between the EU and Great Britain, especially on the island of Ireland.

This solution is the most advantageous market because from the economic side it is the quintessence of "soft Brexit". According to supporters, it allows free trade with the rest of the EU, while giving freedom to define customs law with the rest of the world. However, the proposal is severely criticized by prominent members of the Conservative Party. Eurosceptics draw attention to the administrative complexity of "mixing" of systems, which can ultimately lead to the United Kingdom never coming out from under the dictates of the EU.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the 1.3580 support, but the technical resistance at the level of 1.3711 has not been tested yet. The market conditions are extremely oversold at this time frame, so the corrective pull-back can occur soon.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 2, 2018

EUR/JPY

There is now a bearish bias on the EUR/JPY cross, especially in the short-term. The current "sell" signal is ongoing and the price could drop further to test the demand zones at 131.50 and 131.00. One factor partly responsible for this downwards move is the weakness in EUR, which is ongoing.

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There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Further bearish movement is a possibility which may enable the price to reach the demand zones at 131.50 and 131.00.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 2, 2018

USD/JPY

There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the USD/JPY 4-hour chart. The market is now above the demand level at 109.50 and it could reach the supply level at 110.00. Further northwards movement is anticipated before the reversal in the market, which may also be visible on other JPY pairs.

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Owing to the current bullish effort in the market, the price could go further upwards, but that would be a temporary thing owing to the expected reversal in the market. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 2, 2018

Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 2, 2018

USD/CHF

This pair has gone upwards this week, and this seems to be the beginning of a great bullish momentum in the market (given the stamina in USD). Following the current pause in the bullish movement, a bullish journey will resume. The next targets are the resistance level at 1.0000, which is a major resistance level (a psychological level).

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There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, which portends further bullish movement in favor of buyers. Short trades are not currently recommended. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 02/05/2018

The poor liquidity of the Christmas market has undoubtedly helped the dollar bulls to push it higher, but further macro events from the US can still be expected as threating to this rally. Today in the foreground is the finish of the FOMC meeting, although the chances of surprises are small. It is almost certain that interest rates will be maintained at the current level, and the form of communication limited to the statement itself (press conference takes place every second meeting) will narrow the range of signals for the market. It is more likely that the FOMC will feel comfortable with language maintenance regarding the "gradual" pace of tightening, which leaves the gate for the fourth increase in 2018, but is not a declaration. On the other hand, a series of positive data readings from the economy allows to maintain an optimistic tone and translate this into a more hawkish text of the statement, which unofficially will suggest the certainty of another interest rate hike in June. However, with the market valuation of such a scenario at approx. 90%, modifications of the message in this direction should not make a greater impression on investors.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame before the Fed interest rate decision. The USD may not get a strong signal from the Fed, but it does not mean that the fuel for the rally has run out. The turn of the month is a very interesting period, and if it is additionally intertwined with holidays, it only intensifies the "mess." If we assume that the last appreciation is above all the repentance of speculators (who dared to defeat the dollar this year), the dollar is not yet strong with its strength, but it is a strong erasure of a mistakenly perceived weakness. This means that it has the potential to continue its growth if its driving force is to become more and more convinced of its actual strength. The market has broken through 61% Fibo at the level of 91.97 and made a new high at the level of 92.59, which is above the long-term trend line resistance as well. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 92.00. The clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator indicates a possible corrective pull-back to occur soon.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 02, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.7049.

The NZD/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 0.7089, while minor resistance is seen at 0.7049. Support is found at the levels of 0.6955 and 0.6906. Pivot point has already been set at the level of 0.7049. Equally important, the NZD/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 0.7049, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair continued moving downwards from the level of 0.7049. The pair fell to the bottom around 0.7010 from the level of 0.7049. In consequence, the NZD/USD pair broke support, which turned into resistance at the level of 0.7010. The level of 0.7089 is expected to act as the major support today. We expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend towards the target levels of 0.6955 and 0.6906. On the uptrend: If the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7010, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7010. So, the market will rise further to 0.7049 and 0.7089 to return to the daily resistance. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.7089 in order to form the double top.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 02, 2018

analytics5ae98b2ab5d6d.pngThe USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9886. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9886 to a top around 0.9969. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0011 followed by 1.0043, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9886 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9923 and 1.0043; so we expect a range of 120 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.0011, we should see the pair climbing towards the next target of 0.9923. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9923 with the first target at 1.0011 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.0043. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.0043 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top on the H1 chart. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9886, a further decline to 0.9774 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 02, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $9.060. A U.S. District Court has ruled against Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group in favor of a Dubai-based cryptocurrency foundation, Alibabacoin. The judge says Alibaba Group did not show any jurisdiction in the U.S. and China's ban on initial coin offerings eliminates any potential confusion. The technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price is trading inside of the potential bearish flag, which is a sign that Bitocin is in a bullish corrective wave. The larger view is that Bitocin is trading inside of the downward channel and the upper trendline is close to the current price. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm a further downward movement. The downwrad targets are set at the price of $8.785 and at the price of $8.418.

Support/Resistance

$9.127 – Intraday resistance

$9.055– Intraday support

$8.785 – Objective target 1

$8.418 – Objective target 2

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for May 2, 2018

USD/CAD has been stuck inside the corrective range between 1.28 to 1.2950 area from where no definite trend pressure is being observed. USD and CAD, both currencies have been struggling with the economic reports recently which lead certain indecision and volatility in the market persists currently. Recently CAD GDP report was published with an increase to 0.4% from the previous negative value of -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.3%. The positive GDP report did help CAD to regain its momentum against USD but was not sufficient to establish a definite trend in the market.

Ahead of the high impact economic reports to be published on the USD side this Friday, certain correction and volatility are quite expected but the mixed forecast of the economic reports are expected to confuse market sentiment along the way. Today there is no economic report or event on the CAD side to impact the market momentum but tomorrow CAD Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to increase to -2.3B from the previous negative figure of -2.7B.

On the other hand, today USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 200k from the previous figure of 241k and Crude Oil Inventories report is also expected to decrease to 1.0M from the previous figure of 2.2M.

To sum up, USD economic reports to be published today are expected to have a certain impact on the upcoming price action and trend momentum in this pair whereas the definite trend is expected to be set after NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate report of USD is published before the weekly close this week. As of the current scenario, a break from this indecision and corrective structure is needed before the market sets a definite trend in the future whereas USD is expected to have an upper hand.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of the corrective structure support of 1.28 from where no definite trend pressure is being observed. There is no divergence being formed in the market for which we need to wait for the price to break above or below this range between 1.28 to 1.2950 area. As the price remains above 1.28 with a daily close, further bullish momentum is expected in this pair.

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BITCOIN Analysis for May 2, 2018

Bitcoin is still quite indecisive and corrective above $8,500 price area. The price is expected to have a retest before the price proceeds higher towards $10,000 in the coming days. As the support of $8,500 has not been broken yet, the bulls are apparently quite strong with their momentum, reluctant to give in to the bears. There has not been any fundamental impact on the Bitcoin recently that is assumed as one of the main factors for such a corrective and volatile manner of trading. As for the current scenario, the price is being held by the Kumo Cloud as support which has slowed down the bearish momentum in a significant way. However, there are still probabilities of bearish pressure as the price is retesting the $8,500 area. Then if any rejection with a daily close is observed, further bullish pressure with a target towards $10,000 is expected. As the price remains above $8,500 with a daily close, the bullish bias is likely to continue further.

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Analysis of Gold for May 02, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upawards. The price tested the level of $1,311.50. Anyway, according to the M30 time – frame, I found a potential bearish flag in progress, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a rejection of the resistance at the price of $1,310.00, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm a further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of $1,301.50. If there is no breakout of the bearish flag, Gold can still go higher and potentially test the level of $1,313.20.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,312.95

R2: $1,321.95

R3: $1,327.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,298.40

S2: $1,292.82

S3: $1,283.83

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for May 2, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite impulsive with bullish gains recently which led the price to proceed higher above 109.20 without a retracement along the way. Ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports from the US this week, including NFP and Unemployment Rate reports, certain gains on the USD side indicate further momentum in the coming days. Today, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 200k from the previous figure of 241k and Crude Oil Inventories report is also expected to decrease to 1.0M from the previous figure of 2.2M.

On the other hand, JPY Monetary Base report was published today with a decrease to 7.8% from the previous value of 9.1% which is expected to increase to 9.2% and Consumer Confidence report was also published with a decrease to 43.6 from the previous figure of 44.3 which was expected to increase to 44.6.

As for the current scenario, JPY has failed to provide positive economic reports results today to gain some momentum over the USD impulsive pressure. US economic reports are also expected to have negative readings. If the US presents better economic report today, USD is likely to extend its gains in the coming days, whereas JPY may still struggle to stop the impulsive bullish pressure along the way.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with the gains yesterday having a retest off the 109.20 support level. The price has been trying to push hard lower today but currently the bears are being rejected along the way whereas bulls are trying to maintain their momentum. As for the current structure, the price is expected to push towards 110.00 in the coming days whereas breaking above 110.00 with a daily close will lead to further impulsive bullish pressure with a target towards 112.00 resistance area in the future. As the price remains above 108.50 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Trading plan 05/02/2018

Trading plan 05/02/2018

The picture: Today, the focus is on the Fed.

On Wednesday, there will be important news for the United States.

The Fed at 18.00 London time.

The rate will not be increased but the text of the statement will be "hawkish."

Report on employment for April at 12:15 London time.

The dollar is ready to continue strengthening, but it would be logical to see a big correction first.

Trump extended until June 1 the decision either to raise or not the duties of steel and aluminum for the US allies including Europe, Canada, and Mexico.

The delegation of the USA headed by Ministry of Finance, Steven Mnuchin, was left for China to trade on the issue of new duties against China, declared by Trump.

Data on the US industry for April came out with a slowdown in growth but remains strong.

The pound broke through the key support at 1.3700 and showed a reversal down.

We are waiting for a strong upward rebound towards the level of 1.3870 and sell with the target of 1.3700.

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EUR/USD analysis for May 02, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1981. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a potential end of the bullish corrective phase in the backgorund (bearish flag), which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of a bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1930. The short- and mid-term trend is bearish. Watch for selling opportunities.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2057

R2: 1.2123

R3: 1.2160

Support levels:

S1: 1.1955

S2: 1.1915

S3: 1.1850

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for May 2, 2018

The Dollar index remains inside the bullish channel in an up trend. Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows above the cloud support levels and as long as we remain above 92 trend is short-term bullish. However looking at the weekly chart, we stopped the rise yesterday at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 95.15 to 88.25 2018 lows.

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Weekly trend remains bearish as price is below the Kumo (cloud). Price has broken above the weekly kijun-sen. This opens up the way for a bigger bounce towards at least the lower cloud boundary at 93.90. However the Fibonacci resistance we hit yesterday is very important. I would not rule out a rejection and full scale reversal from current levels taking into consideration the short-term bearish divergence signals we have.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for May 2, 2018

Gold price as expected from last week approached the $1,310-$1,300 support area. Price has reached weekly support levels and combined with short-term bullish divergence signs, we could see a bounce at least towards $1,330-40 area if not a bigger move higher. Weekly trend remains bullish but technically we have seen no real progress for the last 3 months.

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Red line - long-term resistance

Green line -long-term support

Gold price remains above the weekly cloud. Trend is bullish. Price has pulled back and is challenging the weekly cloud and the weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Gold has also reached the green long-term trend line support. I expect Gold to start a new upward move from current levels and break above $1,365. We could see below $1,300 as a stop hunt for weak bulls, but for this to be the case a break below $1,300 should be short-lived. Next support if week closes below $1,300 is at $1,240.

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Bitcoin analysis for 02/05/2018

The latest Gov't report from Hong Kong reports that Bitcoin puts a "medium-low" risk in financial crime, according to Hong Kong Financial Services and Treasury (FSTB).

The report was to establish a status on money laundering and terrorist financing. It states explicitly that virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin, are not particularly used in any type of financial crime, although there is an inherent vulnerability to money laundering. The report mentions the use of cryptocurrencies in the pyramids, so-called Ponzi and cybercrime. The report refers in particular to police reports, where in 2013-2017, 167 Bitcoins participated in such non-legal projects. "Although we have not found a significant risk in these modern payment methods, it is a rapidly growing field that requires constant monitoring."- notes the report, pointing out that financial supervision authorities in Hong Kong and law enforcement agencies will work together to look at the risks associated with ICO and generally cryptocurrencies.

According to the report, cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in Hong Kong. FTSB suggests that because Hong Kong is one of the freest economies in the world with a dynamic currency market and a lack of capital control, VCs are not as attractive as in economies where people may try to avoid currency controls or seek refuge from high inflation rates. Finally, it was also added that BTC ATMs in Hong Kong are not widely used by citizens.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the black trend line at the level of $9,126 and now is heading towards the level of $8,706. The key technical support is still seen at the level of $8,355, but the current price action does not look impulsive actually. It is quite possible that instead of five waves to the upside, the market will perform only three waves up and will continue with the downtrend.

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Trading plan for 02/05/2018

Most currencies try to erase part of yesterday's strengthening of the dollar, although the moves are not among the strongest. Risky currencies like AUD, NOK, CAD and SEK predominate as EUR/USD is struggling to recover the level of 1.20, GBP/USD fluctuates slightly at 1.36 and USD/JPY were around 109.85. Among precious metals, we also see a slight rebound of yesterdays slide. Silver is growing 0.8%, an ounce of gold costs 1308 USD (+ 0.35%). Palladium and platinum grow slightly above 0.35%. WTI oil invariably moves in consolidation between USD 67 and USD 69.50.

On Wednesday 2nd of May, the event of the day is the FOMC interest rate decision and the rate statement. Besides, there are some other important data to be released from the US, like ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Construction PMI.

EUR/USD analysis for 02/05/2018:

The market participants expect the FED to leave the interest rate at the level of 1.75% this month, but the most of the interest is focused on the rate statement. The main question is whether the FED will mention or give a clue regarding a possible four interest rate hikes this year instead of three. This would be a very hawkish statement and would have made the US Dollar to appreciate more across the board.

Other important data to be released are ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (which is expected to decrease from 241k to 191k) and Construction PMI ( which, in turn, is expected to increase from 47.0 to 50.9 points).

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has hit the 161% Fibo Extension at the level of 1.1989 and currently is trying to bounce higher towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 1.2054. The market conditions are extremely oversold at the current timeframe, so in a case of a disappointment from FED decision (or a statement), the short squeeze rally higher might get severe. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2163 and only a clear and sustained breakout above this level would change the bias from bearish to bullish.

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Daily analysis of Gold for May 01, 2018

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Overview

The gold price is moving downwards, moving away from 1,316.48 levels, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview for the rest of the day. The price is likely to visit 1,301.20 levels as the next main station. The EMA50 provides continuous support to the expected bearish trend. Holding below 1,316.48 represents an initial condition to continue the suggested decline. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,290.00 support and the 1,325.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for May 01, 2018

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Overview

Silver price tested the sideways range support line at 16.15, accompanied by a stochastic's move at the oversold areas. This indicates the chances that the price will visit this range's resistance at 16.80 in the upcoming sessions. Until now, silver is still trading sideways on the intraday basis until the price manages to breach one of the above mentioned levels. Let me remind you that if support is broken, it will push the price towards 15.49 directly. On the other hand, breaching the resistance will make the price achieve upward targets from 17.43. The expected trading range for today is between 16.00 support and 16.50 resistance.

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