Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for June 19, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair looks to be ready for yet another leg lower. It seems to have hit the back side of immediate support line at 1.1200/10 levels and also re-tested the resistance today before reversing. Looking at the wave structure, the pair looks to have completed waves A or 1 and B or 2 as labelled here and should be poised for a wave C or 3 lower from here. It looks to be dropping lower at least till 1.1000 levels going forward. Please note that the pair might be in a wave 4 correction of a higher degree before it could turn higher again. It looks wise to remain on the short side for now with risk above 1.1300 levels. Besides, note that prices have reversed lower from fibonacci 0.50 resistance levels for now but we are not ruling out a possibility of a last leg rally through 1.1230 levels before turning lower again.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for now, with stop above 1.1300, targeting 1.1000

GBPUSD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has completed its counter trend rally around 1.2820 levels as discussed earlier. Furthermore, prices have also tested resistance and reversed lower today. Still, a possibility remains for an extended rally towards 1.2840/50 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the entire drop between 1.2970 through 1.2635 levels respectively, before prices resume lower. As labelled on the hourly chart here, a drop is possible either from current levels or from 1.2840/50 levels respectively. Looking at the wave count as well the pair might have completed wave 2 last week and wave 3 should resume any moment now. A break below the counter trend support line here would accelerate lower. Resistance remains at 1.2970 levels and till GBP/USD is below that, bears are expected to take control back.

Trading plan:

Remain short from here, stop above 1.2970 levels, target 1.2300.

Fundamental outlook:

The Brexit negotiations kick off today, so watch out for a higher volatility on GBP/USD.

Good luck!

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EUR/USD analysis for June 19, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1212. Anyway, according to the 1H time frame, I found a fake breakout of Friday's high at 1.1208, which is sign that buying looks risky. There is also a breakout of the upward trendline, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1145.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1215

R2: 1.1225

R3: 1.1245

Support levels:

S1: 1.1190

S2: 1.1175

S3: 1.1165

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for June 19, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2814. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of the Friday's high at 1.2805, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2760 and 1.2725.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2820

R2: 1.2840

R3: 1.2870

Support levels:

S1: 1.2775

S2: 1.2750

S3: 1.2730

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 19, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair market failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

Bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated of the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY-ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary Resistance-Zone until bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next Supply-Zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection was expressed on June 14.

Trade recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level). This indicates a valid SELL signal.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 19, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recent Update: The price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 constituted Intraday resistance where the current bearish movement was initiated.

The bearish pullback will probably extend towards 1.1110 and 1.1000 provided that the EUR/USD pair maintains trading below 1.1170.

On the other hand, a bullish breakout above 1.1285 will be mandatory to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1400.

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H4 Outlook

On May 30, significant bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 1.1170 (Lower Limit of the wedge pattern in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci Level ).

On June 14, significant bearish rejection was expressed around the depicted supply level 1.1280-1.1295 (The upper limit of the wedge pattern).

This was followed by the bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the wedge pattern as well.

Today, Bearish persistence below 1.1170 (Lower limit of the wedge pattern and 61.8% Fibonacci Level) will be needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1110 and 1.1050.

On the other hand, note that re-closure above 1.1200 (Lower limit of the wedge pattern) brings bullish pressure into the market again. This allows further bullish advance towards 1.1270 initially.

Trade recommendations:

A valid SELL entry can be considered around the price levels of1.1200 (61.8% Fibonacci Level).

S/L should be placed above 1.1250 while T/P levels should be placed at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.0850.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 1.1184 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the spot of 1.1106-1.1114, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend The price is likely to form a double bottom on the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1240. So, buy above the level of 1.1240 with the first target at 1.1283 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.1350. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.1350 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. However, it would also be safe to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set above the second resistance of 1.1106. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1184, a further decline to 1.1106 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.2846, while minor resistance is seen at 1.2804. Support is found at the levels of 1.2765 and 1.2715. Besides, a daily pivot point has already set at 1.2806. Equally important, the GBP/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 1.2806, which represents a daily pivot on the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 1.2756. The pair rose from the level of 1.2756 which coincides with the first support to the top around 1.2806. In consequence, the GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at the level of 1.2715. This level is expected to act as major support today. From this point of view, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.2765 towards the target level of 1.2846. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2846, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2846 in order to reach the second target at 1.2904 in coming days. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.2715, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for June 19, 2017

EUR/USD has been in a corrective structure since the break above the 1.1140 level. EUR showed a good amount of bullish pressure with Positive Italian Trade Balance report at 3.60B which was expected to be at 3.41B and after the worst US Building Permits and Housing Starts reports on Friday. The Building Permits were expected to increase to 1.25M from 1.23M but the actual result showed a decrease to 1.17M and Housing Starts were also expected to rise to 1.23M from 1.16M but it was published with a worse figure at 1.09M. Today, the market is quite corrective in nature because the economic calendar lacks important reports both for USD and EUR. Today, FOMC Member Dudley and German Buba President Weidmann are due to speak later today on the key interest rates and further monetary policies. Recently, US Fed raised the funds rate which curbed the growth of EUR against the USD. However, until the corrective situation in the market remains, there are no future gainers, neither EUR nor USD. Nevertheless, EUR is expected to have an upper hand over USD this week.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently above the support level of 1.1140. On Friday, we observed that the market has already shown a bounce off the level with bullish pressure. As the price remains above the 1.1140, a further bullish move in this pair is expected with a target towards 1.1280-1.1360 resistance area. The bullish bias is expected to continue further until price breaks below 1.1140 with a daily close.

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Global macro overview for 19/06/2017

Global macro overview for 19/06/2017:

American consumers are not that confident after all. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index dropped to a seven-months low in June. Market participants expected the index to increase from 91.1 points to 97.2 points, but it dropped to 94.5 instead (the lowest figure since November 2016). The Current Economic Conditions index declined to 109.6 from 111.7 and there was a 1.1% decline over the year. The Index of Consumer Expectations increased to 84.7 from 87.7 in May, although there was still a 2.8% annual gain. The inflation expectations were unchanged on the yearly basis (2.6%), while the 5-year expectations index rose slightly to 2.6% from 2.4%.

In conclusion, there was a drop of confidence despite a strong job market growth. Moreover, the recent sales report indicated, that both headline and underlying sales declined on the month and the consumer spending is starting to show a poor level of performance on a monthly basis.

One of the reasons might cause political tensions since Trump has been at the helm of the administration. None of the pledges made by Trump during the presidential campaign has been fulfilled so far, which is a main concern for the Republicans. On the other hand, Democrats are worried about the fact, that the chances of tax reforms being passed appeared to have declined.

The Federal Reserve Bank raised the funds rate last week as expected and remained hawkish towards the possibility of a further rate hike this year. The most likely period for the next interest rate hike is December 2017 and until then the FED should keep an eye on the current economic progress in the US, especially job market, wage growth, inflation and the reforms planned by Trump's administration.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. Despite the hawkish comments from FED, the bulls were too weak to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 97.51 and the price reversed towards the next technical support at the level of 96.84.

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Global macro overview for 19/06/2017

Global macro overview for 19/06/2017:

Today's update of the Reuters Tankan Index from Japan, a benchmark that tracks sentiment at large firms, may drop a fresh clue regarding the economic expansion. Currently, Japan's third-longest postwar expansion is underway as the forward-looking economic indicators are at the elevated levels. The PMI data of the manufacturing and industrial sectors are painting an optimistic picture of the overall economic development. Stronger than expected growth in the manufacturing and services sectors in May underpinned a rise in overall activity in just under three and a half years. Moreover, the Bank of Japan remains optimistic. Despite the fact, that the BoJ has left the interest rate unchanged at its last meeting, it improved its economic outlook 2017-2018 fiscal year to 1.6%. At the press conference, BoJ Governor Kuroda said that Japanese economy is growing steadily, but the inflation is still not picking up as projected. Nevertheless, if the economy continues to expand, the output gap will shrink and that process will have an impact on inflation. Today's update of Tankan Index for June may reveal whether Japan's corporate sector also anticipates firmer economic activity ahead.

Nevertheless, the Japanese yen should remain under pressure as other central banks, like the Federal Reserve, started to hike the interest rates. There is still a good chance that the Bank of England and the ECB will re-think their monetary policy stances and start to raise the interest rates slowly. In this case, the BoJ will not have any other option but to join them.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The price has broken above the golden trend line resistance and now is trading around 38% Fibo retracement of the previous swing down. The next support is seen at 110.81 - 110. 61 and the next resistance lies at 111.41.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 19, 2017

The Dollar index pulled back towards short-term cloud support and is bouncing. As I have been saying for the last few sessions while the index is around 96.50-97 I remain bullish for a bounce towards 98.50-99. After the bounce we will look to sell again.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line - support

The Dollar index pulled back towards cloud support in the 4-hour chart. Only a break above 97.50 will confirm that the long-awaited bounce is starting. The Dollar index has been mainly moving sideways since mid-May. Trend is neutral.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Red line - short-term resistance

The Dollar index has most probably made a short-term low a couple of days ago. Price is showing reversal signs and I still expect the Dollar index to move towards the daily Kumo (cloud) at 98.50-99 area. I remain short-term bullish about the US dollar.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 19, 2017

Gold price is breaking short-term support and is heading towards our target of $1,245. Gold weakness is expected for the start of the week but overall I can see a bigger longer-term upward reversal coming soon.

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Gold price is making lower lows and lower highs. Price is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise and this is important support. If we break below $1,245 we should expect Gold price to go towards $1,230. Trend remains bearish in the shortterm and the Gold pullback is unfolding as we expected from $1,280.

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Black line - long-term resistance trend line

Red line - support trend line

Blue line - long-term support trend line

The Gold weekly chart as expected is moving towards the weekly Kumo (cloud) support at $1,235-45 area. The rejection unfolded as we expected two weeks ago at $1,295. Now we prepare for a longer-term reversal. I expect Gold to reverse upwards from the $1,200-$1,245 area. I remain longer-term bullish.

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Trading plan for 16/06/2017

Forex analysis review
Trading plan for 16/06/2017

Trading plan for 19/06/2017

Trading plan for 19/06/2017:

On Monday morning the strongest currency was NZD (+0.2%), NOK (+0.1%), and SEK (+0.1%), while the weakest was JPY (-0.15%) and AUD (-0,12%). EUR/USD is trading around 1.1200 and USD/JPY around 111.00. The Asian stock market was dominated by the positive sentiment, so Hang Seng is up 1.0%, Nikkei 226 is up 0.6% and Shanghai Composite is up 0.5%.

On Monday 19th of June 2017, the event calendar is light with any important news release, so let's take a look at the dynamics of major pairs and possible setups to trade.

GBP/USD analysis for 19/06/2017:

On Monday, the negotiations between the EU and Great Britain on Brexit are underway. In an atmosphere of growing ethnic or interreligious tension, the UK is about to leave the European community. As you know, this direction has a strong opposition in Scotland. The Scottish nationalists would prefer to torment Brexit by gaining independence within the EU. Premier Theresa May recently played high, because she proposed the early parliamentary elections. She won, but not as much as she planned. However, in terms of the intentions and the image enhancing - she lost. Therefore, Brexit is likely to have a milder or "incomplete" character. The so-called "hard" Brexit would mean breaking up with access to the single market and leaving the customs union. The price would probably be the free movement of people between the UK and the rest of the Eurozone.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is trading at the level of 1.2770. Indeed, it is slightly higher than the lows of 12-13 June but still low in relation to the pre-election value, as it was then surged to above 1.29. Nevertheless, the pair is still trading inside of a narrow range between technical resistance at the level of 1.2818 and technical support at the level of 1.2633. Only a clear, impulsive breakout above or below any of these levels would give more clues regarding a further direction of this pair.

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EUR/USD analysis for 19/06/2017:

The Euro recorered a little in relation to what it had lost last week after the FOMC interest rate decision and further outlooks for the FED's monetary policy. The situation is not quite clear because the US dollar might gain some more, but the price shouldn't break the most general tendency, visible since the beginning of the year. If the ECB finally gives clearer signals for tougher policies, then EUR/USD is expected to break out above the 1.1300 level. The reason behind this bullish view lies in the recent change of the political situation in France. Emmanuel Macron is the new French president and his party, La Republique en Marche, also won the parliament, eliminating Socialists party and the National Front party. Emmanuel Macron's party won 355 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, giving support to reforms planned by the French president and this is being viewed as positive by global investors. Moreover, theoretically, such a turn of events should put pressure on the ECB to slowly abandon the extraordinary QE measures.

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price is slowly trying to regain the momentum by testing the golden trend line resistance from below. The oversold market conditions are helping bulls so far, but the momentum indicator is still hovering around the fifty level, so it does not indicate a strong bullish pressure. The next support is seen at the level of 1.1130 - 1.1108 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 1.1236 and 1.1298.

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Market Snapshot: possible Double Top formation on Gold

The price of Gold had reversed after the last week FOMC interest rate decision and now is trading below the technical support at the level of $1,259. Moreover, there is a technical pattern of Double Top at the level of $1,296 possible, but to confirm this scenario, the price must break down below the 200 DMA at the level of $1,238. The market condicitons are neutral, but the oscillator is clearly turnind to south. The next support is seen at the level of $1,245.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

The corrective decline in wave ii/ will not loosen its grip and it has now spiked below support at 1.5423, this opens for more downside pressure towards 1.5261 as long as the resistance line near 1.5500 and more importantly as long minor resistance at 1.5564 is able to cap the upside. However, a break above this resistance will indicate that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ towards 1.6655 is developing.

R3: 1.5544

R2: 1.5485

R1: 1.5415

Pivot: 1.5400

S1: 1.5347

S2: 1.5300

S3: 1.5261

Trading recommendation:

Our stop was hit for a loss. We will only buy a break above 1.5564.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY has rallied nicely and in a clear impulsive character indicating more upside pressure to come. That said, short-term we might need a deeper correction from 124.46 closer to the 123.17 - 123.45 area before the next impulsive upswing towards 125.82 and above.

R3: 125.10

R2: 124.71

R1: 124.46

Pivot: 124.00

S1: 123.99

S2: 123.45

S3: 123.17

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR again at 123.25 or upon a break above 124.46.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 19, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair moved sideways last week – in the context of an uptrend. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week, and this may make the EUR/USD go southwards, causing a bearish bias to form in the market. Further southwards movement is thus expected.

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USD/CHF: Last week, the USD/CHF consolidated in the context of a downtrend, with price making a faint bullish effort in the last few days of the week. The outlook on the market is bullish for this week, and this could put an end to the bearish bias, especially as price goes above the resistance level at 0.9900. Two factors would help realize the bullish outlook: When the EUR/USD drops, the USDCHF would be helped upwards. Then CHF itself could become somewhat weak this week, and that may help USD to the upside.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is a volatile market, and price did not a make a significant directional bias last week. This has forced the market to enter a neutral bias in the short-term. There would be an end to the neutral bias when the accumulation territory at 1.2600 is breached to the downside, or the distribution territory at 1.2900 is breached to the upside. As long as one of these things does not happen, the bias would remain neutral.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument made attempts to go upwards on Thursday and Friday, but that did not override the bearish outlook on the market. Rally attempts should be disregarded, for that could turn out to be short-selling opportunities, for the outlook on JPY pairs is also bearish for this week.

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EUR/JPY: The bias in the EUR/JPY cross remains bullish in spite of the threats to it. The cross closed above the demand zone at 124.00 on Friday, and it may even reach the supply zones at 124.50 and 125.00. However, the market is not expected to trade upwards significantly. Once the market drops below the demand zone at 121.00, the bias on the market would turn bearish. Any gains of stamina on the Yen would cause the market to shoot downwards.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 19, 2017

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Today, there is no Economic Data will be released when the European & the US market opens, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1256.

Strong Resistance:1.1250.

Original Resistance: 1.1239.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1228.

Target Inner Area: 1.1202.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1176.

Original Support: 1.1165.

Strong Support: 1.1154.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1148.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 19, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance data, but today the US will not release any Economic Data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.57.

Resistance. 2: 111.35.

Resistance. 1: 111.13.

Support. 1: 110.86.

Support. 2: 110.65.

Support. 3: 110.43.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for June 19, 2017

The index trimmed gains and it's being supported by the 200 SMA at H1 chart. So far, we're expecting the upside continuation in the greenback, but in case that we witness a breakout below 96.95, then further declines are expected to take place towards 96.70 in a first degree, while a consolidation above Friday's highs should take USDX to test the 97.75 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.41 / 97.75

H1 chart's support levels: 96.95 / 96.70

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.41, take profit is at 97.75 and stop loss is at 97.07.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 19, 2017

GBP/USD remains confined into a sideways structure which is being capped by the 200 SMA at H1 chart. The resistance zone of 1.2826 is the next level of interest for sellers, but the downside is still the preferred scenario so far. If the pair manages to break below 1.2741, it can reach the 1.2660 level for the short-term.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2826 / 1.2880

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2741 / 1.2660

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2741, take profit is at 1.2660 and stop loss is at 1.2823.

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