Many in the market believe that Trump's illness is unreal

The news regarding D. Trump's coronavirus illness is starting to recede to the second or even third plan. Many political scientists are beginning to claim that this was a staged political election campaign, as he began to unusually feel good quickly. But time will tell whether this is true or not. Meanwhile, investors' attention in financial markets is still focused on whether new stimulus measures will be introduced in the United States or not.

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, N. Pelosi, who stated yesterday that she would not support measures to help airlines initiated by D. Trump somewhat restrained the rally in the US stock market, but investors continue to be sure that they will be adopted sooner or later, which is due to several reasons.

First, the US economy can no longer actually exist without financial assistance, as Jerome Powell, Fed's head, insisted on.The desire of the authorities to keep everything and not lose anything is unrealistic, which leads to the state of disadvantage. Moreover, earlier measures taken to help the economy after the 2008-09 crisis did not solve the deep structural problems of the US economy, but only delayed the problem. Now, since this year started, more incentive measures have been taken to contain COVID-19 pandemic, which have simply ended in nothing. Therefore, the markets are demanding more.

Second, whoever wins the US presidential race has no choice but to give more aid packages to its citizens, which is expected to run out and then everything will start all over again.

In fact, repetitive measures to support the economy, which are working less and less on each round, can lead to a state of permanent weakness of the US currency. The only thing that keeps it from falling badly is the desire of other world Central Banks to weaken the rates of their national currencies and the fact that the USD is still the world's reserve currency.

We believe that the overall picture on the currency markets will not change significantly over the following week. The expectation of new stimulus measures in the US will remain the main negative factor for the US dollar, but its weakening will be restrained by the unclear result of the US presidential election.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate in a narrow range of 1.1725-1.1780. If it breaks above 1.1780, it will continue to rise to the level of 1.1810.

The USD/CAD pair may correct up to 1.3200. If it keeps below this level, it will resume its decline to the level of 1.3140.

analytics5f7ffa3dad89e.jpg

analytics5f7ffa587673c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Downside Invalidated

analytics5f7ffe2168ab0.jpg

EUR/USD has violated the downtrend line signaling that the decline, corrective phase, is over and that the pair could approach and reach fresh new highs. It has failed to consolidate under 1.17 level indicating strong buyers in the short term.

I've told you in my previous analyses that EUR/USD will be bearish as long as the price is located under the downtrend line. Now, the sentiment has changed, an increase above 1.18 psychological level confirms further growth.

  • EUR/USD Trading Tips

You can buy EUR/USD if the price jumps above the 1.1800 level. The immediate target is seen at 1.19, the second one stands at 1.2. A breakout above these obstacles will validate a broader upside movement.

We will have a selling opportunity only if the pair drops under 1.17 again. This scenario is less likely to happen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GOLD Imminent Upside Breakout!

Gold is back above the $1,900 psychological level signaling an imminent upside breakout. The USDX's decline and the global risk, COVID-19 second wave fear helps the gold price to jump higher.

The yellow metal could become very attractive for investors and traders in the upcoming weeks and months, that's why the price of gold could start another leg higher. Technically, another higher high and a valid breakout above the immediate resistance levels could bring a long opportunity.

analytics5f7ffc1a83da3.jpg

Gold failed to reach and retest the $1,862 static support, triangle's downside line, signaling a strong bullish pressure. A valid breakout above the downtrend line, median line (ml), and above the R1 ($1,927) represents a strong bullish signal.

Only a false breakout with great separation above the mentioned resistance levels or a major bearish engulfing could invalidate a new leg higher.

  • GOLD Trading Tips & Conclusion

Buy a bullish closure above the R1 ($1,927) level with a first upside target at the upper median line (uml) of the red ascending pitchfork, around the $2,000 psychological level. $2,075 stands as a major upside target if XAU/USD will resume its long-term uptrend.

A selling opportunity will appear only if the price of gold drops below $1,862 and makes a valid breakdown below the lower median line (lml).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: Inverted Head & Shoulders Signals Reversal!

GBP/USD is trading at 1.2953 and is almost to validate a reversal pattern in the short term. Another higher high should signal a strong upside movement. The pound has taken the lead again as the USD is weakened by USDX's indecision.

Today, the UK's data could be decisive. The GDP is expected to increase by 4.6%, less versus 6.6% in the previous reporting period, the Goods Trade Balance could drop to -9.1B, while the Construction Output could register a 5.1% growth.

The Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production will be released as well. A bigger growth, better than expected figures, could boost GBP/USD.

analytics5f7ff85abf98d.jpg

GBP/USD has escaped from the minor down channel's body for the second time in the last days signaling a potential up reversal. A bullish fly above 1.3007 and beyond the R1 (1.3020) could validate an Inverted H&S pattern.

The pattern should signal and confirm a breakout above the median line (ML) and a further growth towards 1.3483 higher high. Personally, I believe that the up scenario will be invalidated by a drop below 1.2813.

  • GBP/USD Trading Tips

Buy a valid breakout above the R1 (1.3020) level with a first potential target at the R3 (1.3249) level. The next major upside obstacle is seen at the 1.3483 level.

A deeper drop will be signaled by a fall and stabilization under 1.2813 static support.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for October 9, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has jumped back towards the level of 1.1790, but did not manage to break through. The local high was made at the level of 1.1781 and it will now act as an intraday resistance. Since then, the market has been trading horizontally in a narrow range. Due to the positive momentum, there is still a chance for the continuation of the move up. In that case, the level of 1.1753 can not be violated. Please notice, the market still trades above the trend line, so the short-term outlook remains bullish. Larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1938

WR2 - 1.1852

WR1 - 1.1782

Weekly Pivot - 1.1691

WS1 - 1.1632

WS2 - 1.1548

WS3 - 1.1473

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

analytics5f7ff59270818.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 9, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

Despite the recent bounce from the upper channel line seen at the level of 1.2848, the GBP/USD pair keeps trading below the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017. The bounce indicated some bullish pressure at this level and the upper channel line is being guarded strongly, but after some time we can see the momentum decreased and the Pound is trading horizontally. However, if the price will enter the old main channel zone, then the sell-off might accelerate, so the key technical support is again seen at the level of 1.2848. The next target for bulls after the bounce is seen at the level of 1.2979.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3265

WR2 - 1.3116

WR1 - 1.3034

Weekly Pivot - 1.2892

WS1 - 1.2811

WS2 - 1.2658

WS3 - 1.2571

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

analytics5f7ff42fef772.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 9, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Customers of the world-renowned car manufacturer will soon be able to receive blockchain tokens as rewards under a new program called BMW Vantage. Media reported today that BMW Korea is the first BMW Group subsidiary to test the new program and intends to fully introduce it in the country by the end of 2020.

The points-based rewards program uses blockchain technology to securely allocate and track customer tokens. People who buy new BMW models for the first time can receive between 300,000 and 500,000 points. Buyers of existing vehicles such as the X1, X2, BMW 1 and 2 Series could receive up to 600,000, and buyers of new BMW 5 Series or BMW 6 cars up to 900,000. For BMW buy-backs, customers will receive bonus points based on vehicle prices.

Buying BMW cars is not the only way to earn points. BMW Korea has released an application with games and social functions, thanks to which users can also earn contributions. Basically, the point system will aim to provide loyal users with discounts on car servicing and other BMW services. People with more points in the program are promised invitations to cultural events organized by BMW

In recent years, BMW has used blockchain solutions for both customer service and business-to-business operations. As a co-founder of the Mobility Open Blockchain Initiative, the manufacturer has collaborated with established blockchain developers and technology companies such as Hyperledger, IBM and IOTA.

In March, BMW announced plans to roll out its PartChain supply chain solution to 10 suppliers later this year.

Already in 2018, the car manufacturer experimented with a tokenized reward system to encourage drivers to track the mileage of leased vehicles.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the ETH/USD pair made a Pin Bar candlestick at the end of the recent down wave, it continued to move higher towards the technical resistance located at the level of $355.60. If this local technical resistance is not clearly broken, then the down move should resume and head towards the next target seen at the level of $322.87 - $321.95. The momentum remains negative and might accelerate down if the sell-off starts. Please keep an eye on the intraday technical support seen at the level of $342.30.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $403.75

WR2 - $387.38

WR1 - $368.10

Weekly Pivot - $351.05

WS1 - $333.15

WS2 - $315.51

WS3 - $296.13

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

analytics5f7ff30542b02.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 9, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

According to a landmark decision released on Tuesday by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority, companies in the country will no longer be able to offer retail clients cryptocurrency derivative products such as futures, options and stock quotes.

The decision came almost exactly a year after the regulator first proposed to ban these products. In a statement issued by the FCA, he stated that cryptocurrency derivatives are:

"(...) Inappropriate for retail consumers because of the damage they cause."

Several more specific reasons were given, including concerns that "they do not have a reliable basis for valuation", are subject to fraud and financial crime, and are extremely volatile. Other themes cited include "insufficient understanding of cryptocurrencies by retail consumers" and the claim that retail investors do not have a "legitimate investment need" for these products.

The ban will take effect on January 6, 2021, and the regulator has warned that "because the sale of derivatives and ETNs that refer to certain types of cryptocurrencies is currently banned, and any company offering these services to retail consumers is likely a scam."

"This ban reflects how seriously we take the potential harm to retail consumers associated with these products. Consumer protection is paramount here."

One of the companies most affected by the ban will be CoinShares, which last year ran a campaign to persuade the regulator to drop its plans. CoinShares offers ETN and other types of crypto products targeting traditional markets.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has suddenly spiked up towards the level of $10,890 and was stopped at the level of $10,909. This level is the target of 1:1 market geometry of the last wave up and the whole structure was made in three waves only, so the recent dynamic spike up looks very corrective in nature. Any violation of the level of $10,760 will confirm the correction is terminated and the market returns to the horizontal trend. The key short term technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,940.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,471

WR2 - $11,178

WR1 - $10,858

Weekly Pivot - $10,602

WS1 - $10,300

WS2 - $10,024

WS3 - $9,715

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

analytics5f7ff19e603bb.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 9, 2020

analytics5f7fe7e569e8d.jpg

We continue to look for a clear break above resistance at 137.42 to gain upside momentum towards 138.67 and ultimately a break above the former peak at 142.72.

That said, we need to look closely at, what happens near resistance at 138.28 as the possibility of a leading diagonal always is a possibility when we see a series of waves one and two in the beginning of a new impulsive trend.

If a leading diagonal is a correct formation here, we will see resistance at 138.28 that may cap the upside for a dip to at least 136.00 and possibly even closer to 135.06 before the next push higher again.

R3: 138.09

R2: 137.78

R1: 137.40

Pivot: 137.13

S1: 136.88

S2: 136.78

S3: 136.45

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.27 and we will raise our stop to 135.70.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 9, 2020

analytics5f7fe5f3aaed7.jpg

EUR/JPY is close to breaking through resistance at 124.87 for a continuation higher towards 126.46 as the next hurdle on the way higher to the former peak at 127.02. Ultimately the former higher at 127.02 should be broken too for a follow-through towards at least 129.24 and ideally closer to the 161.8 extension target of wave 1 at 135.46.

We also need to have a back-up plan if the rally from 122.34 is a leading diagonal. When we see a series of waves one's and two's in the beginning of a possible new impulsive trend, we need to consider the possibility of a leading diagonal building. If this is the case, then a break below support at 124.36 will indicate that a leading diagonal is a correct formation and a corrective decline to 123.91 and closer to 123.07 should be expected before the next strong rally higher in wave iii of 3/.

R3: 125.45

R2: 125.25

R1: 125.04

Pivot: 124.75

S1: 124.55

S2: 124.36

S3: 124.24

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 123.10 and we will close 50% of our long position if support at 124.36 is broken and re-buy the 50% at 123.25 or upon a break above 124.87

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 9, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro traded in a range of about 50 points on Thursday, closing the day near its opening. The price remained above the target level of 1.1754, which clearly acquired a support function. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is trying to move into the growth zone, this is the first sign of a movement to 1.1910 (high on July 31 and resistance of the MACD line), but insufficient. To do this, the price must still move above the balance line, above 1.1810. The price returning to the area below the 1.1754 level will bring the market sentiment back to sell positions with the target at 1.1650.

analytics5f7fdd1329347.jpg

The price went above the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, Marlin is about to enter the growth zone.Getting the price to settle above 1.1810 will strengthen euro's growth towards the specified target. To strengthen the downward trend, as well as to confidently sell, we expect the price to move under the MACD line, below 1.1710.

analytics5f7fdd162834a.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on October 9, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is showing brisk growth for the third day, and if it settles above the 0.7190 level, which is the extreme on September 9, August 13 and July 22, it may continue to rise to the target level of 0.7270. But along with this, the price must also go beyond the area above the nearest peak on October 6 in order to confirm the first signal for a short-term rise. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is approaching the border of the growth territory (to the zero value of the indicator), therefore, the line could reverse from this, and drag the price along with it. The price itself remains below the red balance indicator line, which allows us to consider the reversal scenario as the main one.

analytics5f7fdbdc683ab.jpg

The price is also below the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, this is a sign of the corrective nature of the price growth. Marlin is exactly on the zero line, this moment increases the likelihood of a reversal of both the oscillator itself and the price. A firm condition for a mid-term decline is when the price settles below the MACD line (0.7110). We are waiting for the development of the situation, either a short-term growth or medium-term decline will confirm any scenario.

analytics5f7fdbdf59a58.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on October 9, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen settled above the MACD and balance indicator lines (respectively, the blue and red indicator lines) on Thursday, but this morning it tried to go back to the area under them. According to our main scenario, we do not expect a strong decline in the pair, the price has still not settled below the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator remains in the growing trend zone. We are waiting for the price at the first target of 106.32, at the embedded price channel line. Leaving the area above the line opens the second target at 106.96 - 28 August high.

analytics5f7fda3abc106.jpg

We can distinguish an alternative scenario on the four-hour chart: the price settling below the MACD line, below 105.70, opens the bearish target at 105.30 - the low on August 5. The Marlin oscillator is still in the growing trend zone. The probability of a negative development of events is 25% (for the main plan).

analytics5f7fda3dd7722.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on October 9. COT report. Pound looks forward to strong August-September GDP

GBP/USD 1H

analytics5f7fc2510b5a9.jpg

The GBP/USD pair continued to trade slightly below the ascending channel and ignored the Kijun-sen line on October 8, which in theory is a strong line that does not allow you to easily overcome it three times a day. However, specifics are now such that many lines are ignored, and not only for the pound/dollar pair. A similar picture is observed for the euro/dollar pair. Thus, traders failed to settle above the resistance area of 1.3004-1.3024, and then they left the ascending channel. These are two factors that are in favor of continuing the downward movement. Nevertheless, sellers failed to approach the Senkou Span B line over the past two days, settling below it could become the third factor in favor of a downward movement. Thus, a flat between the levels of 1.2825 and 1.3000 is not excluded right now.

GBP/USD 15M

analytics5f7fc2545370f.jpg

Both linear regression channels turned upward on the 15-minute timeframe, which is a sign of returning the upward movement on the hourly timeframe. As we mentioned above, the Senkou Span B line at 1.2825 is a serious resistance for the downward movement. Therefore, a flat is possible, and both channels will constantly turn in different directions in a flat.

COT report

analytics5f7fc2612cdda.jpg

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound showed that non-commercial traders started to open high-volume sell contracts. In total, 12,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) were opened from September 23-29. At the same time, the "non-commercial" group of traders also closed around 4,000 Buy-contracts (longs). That is, the net position for this category of traders suddenly decreased by 16,000, which is a lot for the pound, given that there are about 100,000 contracts open at this time. The sentiment of non-commercial traders has become much more bearish. However, the pound only rose in price from September 23-29. It did not grow much, only 140 points, and continues to move up, very uncertainly if I may add. We tend to think that the pound will resume falling in the near future (based on the latest COT reports). As for the indicators, they do not show anything extraordinary now, according to the COT reports. They do not signal a possible global reversal of the pair. Only that non-commercial traders believe more in the dollar's growth rather than the pound (lower indicator).

No major macroeconomic reports from the UK or America on Thursday, October 8. Traders had nothing to react to. At the same time, even if they had such an opportunity, it is unlikely that they would have a desire to do so. Recall that in the past six months, about 80-90% of all statistics were not taken into account by the markets. This is easy to explain. The coronavirus crisis has swept all countries. Especially the European Union, Great Britain and the United States. Thus, positive data on the recovery of a particular economy have, in fact, no value, because all economies fell synchronously due to lockdowns, all economies are recovering synchronously. In the past six months, the US dollar has been prone to fall, the US economy suffered the largest losses in GDP in the second quarter. Traders have worked it out with interest, and they do not pay attention to other, less important reports. Today, Britain will publish its GDP data for August and September, as well as a report on industrial production for August. In theory, these reports can contribute to more active trading in the pound/dollar pair and trend movement at least within the day.

We have two trading ideas for October 9:

1) Buyers have let go of the initiative. Thus, you can formally consider long positions while aiming for the resistance area of 1.3000-1.3024, if the price returns to the area above the critical line (1.2918), however, we advise you to be very careful when doing this or not at all, since the price crossed this line several times for the last 24 hours. Take Profit in this case will be up to 70 points.

2) Sellers seem to have tried to seize the initiative, but so far they clearly lack the strength to build on their success. Bears need to overcome the Senkou Span B line (1.2825), we advise that you only resume trading down in this case, and then you can aim for the support level of 1.2658. Take Profit in this case can range from 70 to 100 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on October 9. COT report. Flat continues. Sellers need to move below 1.1700

EUR/USD 1H

analytics5f7fc20ca7d1a.jpg

The euro/dollar pair continued to trade in a back and forth style on the hourly timeframe on October 8. The pair's quotes crossed the critical Kijun-sen line several times over the past few days, so it simply ceased to be relevant. But we can draw a conclusion about the flat in the short term. Trades from the past few days are strictly between the support area of 1.1701-1.1725 and the resistance level of 1.1786, in a range of only 60 points wide. Therefore, the flat will persist until traders manage to pull the pair out of this range. Sellers can seriously be active below the Senkou Span B line. However, we still need to try to get away below this line, given the general negative attitude towards the dollar at this time.

EUR/USD 15M

analytics5f7fc20feec68.jpg

The lower linear regression channel turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, while the higher one turned up. This suggests that the upward movement may resume in the short term. However, both channels can change directions too often unless the price leaves the horizontal channel on the hourly timeframe.

COT report

analytics5f7fc21e0d40e.jpg

The EUR/USD pair grew by around 30 or 40 points during the last reporting week (September 23-29). We can't even call it growth, just common market noise. The previous Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that non-commercial traders opened 15,500 new Buy-contracts (longs) and almost 6,000 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for this group of traders increased by around 9,000. The new report clearly reflects what is currently happening in the foreign exchange market. Professional traders closed 4,500 contracts for buy positions on the euro and 3,300 contracts for sell positions during the reporting week. That is, the net position for the "non-commercial" group has decreased by around a thousand contracts, which means that the mood of large traders has become a little more bearish. However, these are not changes that can be acknowledged as global. Therefore, we conclude that the situation has not changed dramatically. The EUR/USD pair generally stood in one place for the next three trading days (after September 29). Therefore, the next COT report may also show minimal changes in the mood of professional traders. Looking at the chart showing the net positions of all categories of traders, we can conclude that a major downward reversal is brewing for the euro. Usually, when the green and red lines are far away from each other, it is the harbingers of a global reversal.

No important and significant publications of macroeconomic data on October 8, Thursday. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos' speech was not informative. The only report of the day - on applications for unemployment benefits in the US was slightly more optimistic than forecasts. Nevertheless, we can say that the US unemployment rate continues to decline. The dollar even received traders' support after the release of this report. 20-30 points. The macroeconomic events calendar is generally empty on the last trading day of the week. However, as it often happens, strong movement begins when no one is waiting for it. Let us remind you that market participants are not only ordinary small traders, but also large players who form the bulk of supply and demand. Thus, if, figuratively speaking, the ECB wants to buy 200 billion dollars, then the demand for the US currency will sharply increase, and with it the rate of the dollar itself.

We have two trading ideas for October 9:

1) Trading has recently been extremely vague and very similar to a flat. Formally, buyers can continue to trade the pair upward with targets at the resistance levels of 1.1786 and 1.1855 as long as the price is above the Kijun-sen line (1.1752), but only in small lots and in extreme caution, since the rising line the trend has been overcome. Take Profit in this case will be from 20 to 80 points.

2) Bears have not been able to build on their success and gain a foothold below the support area of 1.1701-1.1725. Thus, we advise traders to wait for this area and until we overcome the Senkou Span B line (1.1690) in order to be able to open new short positions with 1.1631 as a goal. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 50 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 9. The second "wave" of the epidemic in the UK is gaining momentum. Democrats and Republicans

4-hour timeframe

analytics5f7fa95a5bc9e.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 18.0488

The British pound also traded calmly on Thursday, October 8. The pound/dollar pair made several more attempts to overcome the moving average line. Nevertheless, the key point remains the rebound of quotes from the Murray level "5/8" - 1.3000, from which the price fought off on September 16. Thus, buyers failed twice to take the pair above the psychologically important mark of $ 1.30. Consequently, the prospects for further appreciation of the British pound are very doubtful. We believe that the British pound should resume its downward trend long ago because there is no positive news from the Foggy Albion. Moreover, each next news item is "more gorgeous" than the previous one. Only a little less "perfect" fundamental background from overseas allows the British currency to stay afloat. However, this is unlikely to continue forever. We have already said that in a little more than three weeks, the issue with the new US president will be closed (unless, of course, any party initiates legal proceedings regarding the election results). But even if something goes wrong, by December or January at the most, America will know exactly the name of the new president and market participants will be able to build new trading strategies and plans. But for the British pound, the most "fun" part will begin just with the arrival of 2021. According to experts, starting in 2021, the British economy will lose tens of billions of pounds due to Brexit itself, tens of billions due to the lack of a trade agreement with the European Union, and tens of billions of pounds due to the pandemic and crisis. Thus, if the situation in the United States can hypothetically improve in a couple of months, then in Britain it is unlikely.

And, of course, one of the main factors for a possible new fall in the British economy may be the second "wave" of the COVID-2019 pandemic. The second "outbreak" began in the Foggy Albion in early September and in less than a month, the incidence rate rose to almost 15 thousand cases a day, which is three times higher than the maximum values this spring, during the first "wave". Given that the cold season is still ahead, we can expect an even greater increase in the number of cases per day. As practice has already shown, various "soft" quarantine measures do not deter the spread of the "coronavirus" in any way. Thus, Boris Johnson can refuse to introduce a "hard" quarantine as much as he wants, but if the country continues to increase cases of the disease, then the quarantine will have to be introduced, and Johnson himself may even have to resign. At least in recent weeks, these rumors have been actively exaggerated by the British media.

Meanwhile, the issue of providing a package of economic stimulus measures in the United States will have to be postponed for at least a month. Trump yesterday ordered an end to any negotiations with Democrats on the issue, as the parties cannot reach a consensus, and "it is better to focus on the election now". For whom is it better? For Trump himself? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi immediately criticized Trump's decision, accusing him of not being willing to help those affected by COVID-2019. Recent talks between Steven Mnuchin and Nancy Pelosi have shown that there is a difference of views of about $ 800 million. Democrats offered a $ 2.4 trillion package, while Republicans were willing to offer no more than $ 1.6 trillion. "Today, President Trump again showed his true intentions: to put himself first at the expense of the country. Members of Congress from the Republican party simply condoned it," Pelosi said. The speaker of the Lower House also recalled that the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has repeatedly stated that the pace of recovery in the US economy will slow down if a new aid package is not provided.

At the same time, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows believes that Democrats and Republicans will not be able to agree on a comprehensive package of measures. Therefore, we need to focus on individual stages of assistance to the economy, in which both sides can reach a consensus. For example, Meadows and Trump believe that it is necessary to allocate assistance to airlines, small businesses, and also allocate "coronavirus allowances" to individuals. However, this proposal also did not suit the Democrats. Trump even personally appealed to Pelosi: "If I am given a separate bill on benefits in the amount of $ 1,200, our citizens will receive them immediately. I am ready to sign this document right now. Do you hear that, Nancy?" In turn, Pelosi accused Trump of another attempt at populism. In her opinion, Trump is ready to sign a document on assistance to Americans only if each check has his name on it.

In general, problems in America are no less than in Britain. And at the moment, a flat might even be more logical than a trend. However, on the daily timeframe for the pound, there is no flat (in the long term). Only since September 11, the pair's quotes have been trading in a relatively narrow range, about 300 points wide. However, from a technical point of view, a downward movement is preferable. To do this, wait for the price to consolidate below the moving average line.

Several macroeconomic publications are scheduled for the last trading day of the week in the UK, while the calendar is empty in the States. British GDP growth rates for August and September, as well as industrial production and the trade balance, will be published today. We do not believe that these data will affect the movement of the pound/dollar pair in any way. Macroeconomic statistics continue to be ignored by traders, so there is no reason to expect that it will not be ignored today. Thus, you need to focus on the political factors of the United States and Britain. The pound may resume falling if data begins to arrive again about a decrease in the probability of signing an agreement between the EU and the Kingdom. The pound may also be under pressure from data on a sharp increase in "coronavirus" diseases.

analytics5f7fa96533ada.jpg

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 93 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Friday, October 9, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2846 and 1.3032. A new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward signals a possible resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2878

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2756

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3000

R3 – 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair fixed back above the moving average line on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open long positions with targets of 1.3000 and 1.3032 as soon as the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.2846 and 1.2817 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 9. Donald Trump infected the floor of the White House with the "coronavirus", however,

4-hour timeframe

analytics5f7fa91ccc39a.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -0.1377

For the EUR/USD pair, the fourth trading day of the week was again held in exceptionally calm trading. Formally, the trend was present, however, it was absent. And we've been talking about this for the past few months. At first, the pair was trading strictly inside the side channel of $ 1.17 - $ 1.19, occasionally leaving it for a short time. Now the trading has moved to a wider, but also horizontal range. Simply look at the daily timeframe and everything becomes clear. The pair has been moving up bitterly in recent days, although from a fundamental point of view, the strengthening of the European currency is just more justified. In America, everything is still very restless, elections are approaching and the entire information space is devoted to politics. Traders have ignored all macroeconomic statistics, as they should have in the last six months. Several performances by Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde are also ignored by traders. Thus, whether we like it or not, the ball is now ruled by politics. Further, traders and investors are not willing to take risks before the elections, which will take place in a few weeks. They are not ready to buy the US dollar. As for the euro, it has already risen by 1300 points since April. Market participants are also wary of buying at two-year highs in the euro.

Naturally, the number one topic remains "Donald Trump's coronavirus". Recall that a few days ago, the US president officially announced that he and his wife were infected with COVID-2019. However, despite the hospitalization, a couple of days later, Trump was discharged from the clinic and returned to the White House. Back then, a couple of days ago, we were wondering how the president will communicate with other White House employees? A little later, we received information that everyone who will somehow contact the president will be given personal protective equipment, masks, and so on. Trump himself, who has already made two video addresses to the nation, does not look sick at all. Why hospitalization was necessary in this case is unclear. First, Trump again compared the "coronavirus" with the flu, for which he immediately ran into a ban from social networks Twitter and Facebook. In his second video, the president said: "I think it was a blessing from God that I caught it. It was a blessing in disguise." In principle, we fully agree with Trump since this whole story pulls on a "miracle cure". After Trump declared that he was "marked by God", it became known that 34 employees of the White House also contracted COVID-2019. A lot of American media have already called the White House a "hotbed of the virus" and they are not far from the truth. This is exactly what you should expect. It is reported that as soon as Trump returned to the White House, he immediately tore the mask from his face and put it in his pocket, even though he could (and most likely infected) infect everyone with the "coronavirus".

The New York Times, by the way, immediately calculated the state's expenses for the treatment of Donald Trump. They amounted to at least $ 100,000. However, most of these costs are not related to the treatment itself or medical supplies, but helicopter flights and virus tests. It is reported that the majority of Americans face large financial problems in the treatment of the disease. The president of the country should get better medical care, but what about the fact that Trump from the very beginning of the epidemic behaved as if the country was just faced with the flu virus? He did not wear a mask, calmed the population, and misled them with his statements. As a result, the country has already recorded more than 7 million cases of the disease, and the number of deaths has exceeded 211,000. Moreover, the US media believe that Trump was infected with the "coronavirus" before the TV debate with Biden. A list of 206 people the president contacted at a fundraising event in New Jersey has already been compiled.

At the same time, the country's chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, who for a very long time openly clashed with Trump, refuting almost each of his statements about the pandemic, said that about 300-400 thousand people could die from the "coronavirus" in the United States. Fauci's previous forecast of 200,000 deaths, which he made back in March, has already come true.

Well, various reputable American publications continue to calculate the chances of winning the election of a Democrat and a Republican. The Economist newspaper believes that Donald Trump's COVID-2019 infection will negatively affect his already low chances of winning. Various opinion polls conducted after the debate show Biden leading by 14-16%. The Economist conducted a serious simulation of future elections a few months ago, the result of which was that Joe Biden will win the election with a probability of 91%. This simulation is not a simple vote count, but a procedure that takes into account voting in different states and the candidates' set of "electoral votes". Now the publication writes that at the debate, Trump did nothing to sway wavering voters to his side. And his COVID infection was just the "cherry on the cake" after months of ridicule by the president over those who were attentive to wearing a medical mask, in particular over Joe Biden.

Although Trump has already infected about 34 White House employees, as well as an unknown number of people in New Jersey, he is going to resume holding campaign events next week. On October 12, the president is going to go to Pennsylvania, and on October 13 – to Michigan. On October 15, Trump plans to hold a second round of televised debates with Joe Biden, followed by an event in Florida the next day.

The euro/dollar pair continues to trade extremely sluggishly, as evidenced by the volatility indicator of recent days. On average, the pair passes from the minimum to the maximum of each day no more than 70 points. This was the case in 9 of the last 11 days. The last four of the five days ended with a volatility of no more than 57 points. And this is against the background of an almost complete absence of a trend. In general, this is not the most favorable situation for trading. From a technical point of view, formally there is an upward trend. And it will remain as long as the price is above the moving average.

analytics5f7fa9272ef45.jpg

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of October 9 is 60 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1694 and 1.1812. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top may signal a new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1658

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1780

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1.1902

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be located above the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to open new long positions with targets of 1.1780 and 1.1812 after the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up or after the price rebounds from the moving average. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed back below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1719 and 1.1694.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com